USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 12 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Range-bound above flat EMAs, pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 1.4263
Post-NY range 1.4251–1.4261 being tested from above; higher low after late-session sweep.
USDCAD is holding the upper half of the NY rally from the 1.4224 post-claims low to the 1.4271 NY high. The pullback found a floor at the 1.4251 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and the late-session sweep of that low was reversed. Price is now pressing toward the 1.4265 Asian high as Williams speaks, above a flat ema20 at 1.4257 with ATR compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42569, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 NY high opens the 1.4300 round number
Rejection at the 1.4265 Asian high keeps the 1.4251–1.4261 range intact
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.4251 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248
Loss of the 1.4224 NY low breaks the NY rally structure
Fed's Williams, speaking now (23:30 UTC), could break the compressed 4-pip ATR regime
23:31 UTC
Sideways after NY V-reversal, volatility compressing · RSI 53 · price 1.42583
Tight post-NY range 1.4251–1.4261, holding above the 38.2% of the NY rally.
Around the US jobless claims print, the NY session swept below the London low to a 1.4224 NY low, then reversed into a 47-pip rally to the 1.4271 NY high. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4251–1.4261 range above the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally fib, with price above EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) flat near 53 and ATR easing to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42506, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaking now (23:30 UTC) could break the compression in thin Asia session liquidity
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4271 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 range low exposes the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4248 and the 1.4241 London low
A move back toward the 1.4224 NY low would negate the claims-driven reversal
Tight range 1.4251–1.4261 below NY high, ATR compressing.
NY swept below the London low to 1.4224 on the jobless claims print, then rebounded to a 1.4271 NY high, the move later reinforced by the firm USD tone. Since then price has held a 1.4251–1.4261 range near the 38.2% fib of that rebound. A late dip to the range low recovered, and price now sits between the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) flat at 49.7 and ATR(14) down to 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42506, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, in about 14 minutes, is the only scheduled catalyst that could break the compression
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4271 NY high
M15 close below the 1.4251 range low, under the 38.2% fib, exposes the 1.4241 london low and then the 1.4224 ny low
Asia session opening inside the range; a break of the ema20 at 1.42562 or the ema50 at 1.42548 shifts the micro read
NY swept Asian/London lows then rallied; ranging below the NY high.
A NY drop around the 13:30 UTC claims print swept the Asian and London lows to the 1.42241 NY low, then a 47-pip rally on the firm-USD backdrop reached the 1.42714 NY high. Price has since ranged 1.4252–1.4261 with ATR(14) compressing to 4.4 pips, and the last bar slipped below the ema50 and ema20 to test the late low near 1.4250, at the 38.2% fib of the NY rally.
Support: 1.42495, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42547, 1.42605, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, roughly 28 minutes out, could break the low-volatility range
M15 close below the 1.42495 late low exposes the 50% NY rally fib at 1.42478 and the 1.42406 london low
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.42547 and ema20 at 1.42563 returns price to the evening range
Close above the 1.42605 evening high reopens the 1.42714 ny high
22:46 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 1.42586
Tight post-NY range 1.4252–1.4261 above the 38.2% fib of the 1.4224–1.4271 rally.
The NY-hours flush through the london low to 1.4224 around the US claims release reversed into a day high at 1.4271 on the hawkish-Fed USD bid. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4252–1.4261 range, holding the 38.2% fib with ATR(14) shrinking to 3.9 pips. Price is sitting just above a flat ema20 at 1.4257 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.42568, 1.42516, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~44m) is the next catalyst that could break the compression
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high opens a retest of the 1.4271 ny high
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the 1.4241 london low
Tight range 1.42516–1.42611 below the NY session high.
The 13:30 UTC claims dip swept the london low to 1.42241. Hawkish-Fed USD demand then drove a NY reversal through the asian high to a ny high of 1.42714. Since then, after NY close, price has compressed in a 1.42516–1.42611 range, holding above the ema50 at 1.42547 and above the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally, with RSI(14) at 55.1 and ATR(14) contracting to 4.2 pips from 7.4.
Support: 1.42547, 1.42516, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42611 range high reopens the 1.42649 asian high and the 1.42714 ny high
Failure to hold the ema50 and the 1.42516 range low exposes the 50% retracement near 1.42478 and the 1.42406 london low
Fed's Williams speaks in ~59 min (23:30 UTC); commentary on a 50bp December hike could break the compression
22:16 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY reversal · RSI 49 · price 1.42556
Tight range below lower-highs line, above 38.2% fib.
A claims-hour sweep below the london low ran to the 1.4224 ny low, then reversed on the USD-bid Fed repricing to a 1.4271 session high, the pair's four-week high. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4252–1.4261 band under a lower-highs line, with the range floor sitting on the 38.2% fib. After the NY close it is pinned between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI at 49 and ATR down to 4.2 pips from 7.6.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4241, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 range floor and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4241 london low
Close above the 1.4261 range top and lower-highs line reopens the 1.4271 session high
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~74 min) could break the compression
A move back through the 1.4224 ny low would void the NY reversal read
22:02 UTC
Sideways after NY round-trip, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.42556
Post-NY range 1.4252–1.4261 inside the day's 1.4224–1.4271 span.
Around the 13:30 UTC jobless claims, NY swept below the Asian range and the London low to 1.4224. It then reversed through the Asian high to a 1.4271 NY high on the firm USD/Fed-hike tone. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4252–1.4261 range near the 38.2% retrace of that rally, between EMA20 (1.42564) and EMA50 (1.42546), with ATR(14) down from 7.6 to 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.42516, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~88 min) could break the late-session compression
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low exposes the 1.4241 london low
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4265 asian high and the 1.4271 ny high
21:46 UTC
Neutral after NY reversal, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.42568
Tight post-NY range 1.4252–1.4261 above the 38.2% retrace.
Around the US jobless claims release, NY swept below the London low to 1.4224, then reversed to a 1.4271 session high on the firm-USD backdrop. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4252–1.4261 range, holding the 38.2% retrace and the ema50 at 1.4255, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and ATR(14) contracting from 7.8 to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42545, 1.4252, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compression
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low exposes the 1.4241 london low
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4271 session high
21:31 UTC
Neutral after NY rebound, volatility compressing · RSI 50 · price 1.42567
Late-NY range 1.4252–1.4261 inside the 1.4224–1.4271 claims-hour swing.
The claims-hour sweep of the London low reversed from a 1.4224 spike low into a 1.4271 session high on firm USD. Late NY has since compressed into a 1.4252–1.4261 range, holding above the 38.2% fib with the ema50 at 1.42544 underneath. Price sits just below a flat ema20 (1.42565), RSI is 50 and ATR has fallen to 4.4 pips from 7.9.
Support: 1.42544, 1.4252, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4271 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 range low and the ema50 exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
A return toward the 1.4224 spike low would undo the NY rebound
Tight range 1.4252–1.4261 below the NY session high.
Around the US jobless claims release, price swept the London low to a 1.4224 NY low, then reversed to a 1.4271 session high above the Asian range on the firm-USD Fed-hike narrative. Since mid-NY it has held a 1.4252–1.4261 range, sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of that move, just above a flat ema20 and the ema50. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.8 and ATR has compressed from 8.0 to 4.6 pips into the after-close lull.
Support: 1.42544, 1.42516, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4271 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 range low and ema50 at 1.4254 exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248, then the ny low at 1.4224
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could break the compressed range
21:01 UTC
Sideways after NY whipsaw, volatility compressing · RSI 51 · price 1.42569
Tight range 1.4252–1.4261 above 38.2% fib of the NY rally.
The US claims release at 13:30 UTC swept the London low to 1.4224, then reversed to a 1.4271 NY high on the hawkish-Fed USD bid. Since then the pair has held a 1.4252–1.4261 range, with the range floor sitting just above the 38.2% fib of that leg. RSI(14) is neutral at 51 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.8 pips from 8; price is pinned at ema20 (a hair below) and above the rising ema50 into the Asia session.
Support: 1.42542, 1.42516, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the range floor 1.4252 and ema50 exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248, then the london low 1.4241
M15 close above the range top 1.4261 brings the ny high 1.4271 back into view
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current ATR compression
20:46 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY reversal · RSI 51 · price 1.42563
Tight 1.4252–1.4261 range below 1.4271 session high.
NY swept the London low into the US claims release, printing the NY low at 1.4224, then reversed to a 1.4271 session high above the Asian range. The pullback held at the range low near 1.4252, the 38.2% fib of that leg, and price is now coiling in a 1.4252–1.4261 range just under ema20 and above ema50 (1.4254), with RSI flat at 50.5 and ATR compressed to 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.42541, 1.4252, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4271 session high
Failure to hold ema50 at 1.4254 shifts the read toward the range low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compression after NY close
Lower highs off 1.4271 session high, 1.4252–1.4261 range late NY.
The 13:30 UTC jobless claims print swept the London low at 1.4241 to a 1.4224 NY low. Firm USD then drove a 47-pip rally to the 1.4271 session high. Since then highs have stepped lower into a 1.4252–1.4261 range that has held the 38.2% fib, with price just under ema20, above ema50, RSI(14) at 50 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.42541, 1.4252, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low and ema50 exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the 1.4241 London low
Close above the 1.4261 range high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4271 session high
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression
Tight consolidation 1.4252–1.4261 below NY session high.
The dip to the 1.4224 claims low around the US jobless claims release was fully reversed into a 1.4271 session high on the firm-USD backdrop. The pullback held the 1.4252 pullback low twice, near the 38.2% fib, and late NY trade is compressing in a 1.4252–1.4261 band above a rising ema20 (1.4257) and ema50 (1.4254), with ATR(14) easing to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4252, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 pullback low and the ema50 opens the 50% fib near 1.4248
Close above the 1.4261 range top brings the 1.4271 session high back into play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compression
Post-spike consolidation 1.4252–1.4261 above rising EMAs.
The US claims release at 13:30 UTC briefly flushed USDCAD through the london low to 1.4224. Price then reversed to a 1.4271 ny high, clearing the asia high at 1.4265. Late-NY trade has since compressed between a twice-tested 1.4252 pullback low (the 38.2% fib of that rally) and a 1.4261 intraday cap, holding above the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) 56 and ATR shrinking to 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.42564, 1.42516, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the london low at 1.4241
Close above the 1.4261 intraday cap brings the asia high at 1.4265 and the ny high at 1.4271 back into play
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4256 would mark the first crack in the recovery structure
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression
V-reversal after NY sweep; tight late-NY range above both EMAs.
NY swept the London low at 1.4241 down to a 1.4224 NY low around the 13:30 UTC claims release. Price then reversed through the Asia high to a 1.4271 day high as USD found renewed bids on hawkish Fed tone. Late NY is now holding a 1.4252–1.4261 range just above the 38.2% fib of that leg, with price over a rising ema20 and ATR(14) compressing from 8.0 to 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.42561, 1.42516, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top opens the 1.4265 Asia high and the 1.4271 day high
Failure at the 1.4252 range low, below ema50 at 1.4254, exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the London low at 1.4241
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a break of the 1.4224 NY low would undo the reversal
19:31 UTC
Neutral after NY reversal, volatility compressing · RSI 54 · price 1.42581
Tight 1.4252–1.4262 range below the 1.4271 NY high.
A false break below the london low to the 1.4224 ny low around the 13:30 UTC claims print reversed into a run to the 1.4271 ny high, clearing the Asian high as the hawkish USD tone held. Since then price has compressed between the 1.4252 range low and the 1.4262 range high, just above the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, with price above both EMAs, RSI at 54 and ATR easing to 5.8 pips.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4241, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low exposes the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4248, then the london low at 1.4241
M15 close above the 1.4262 range high reopens the 1.4271 ny high
Lower highs since the ny high keep the range top capped while they hold
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC; a 50bp signal could break the late-NY range
19:16 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, momentum neutral · RSI 55 · price 1.42583
Tight post-rally range 1.4252–1.4261 above both EMAs.
The 13:30 UTC jobless claims bar swept the london low at 1.4241 down to 1.4224. The pair then reversed to a NY high at 1.4271 on the hawkish Fed tone, and has since compressed between a range low near 1.4252 and a range top at 1.4261. Price is holding above the ema20 (1.42555) and ema50 near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally, with RSI(14) at 54.6 and ATR(14) easing to 6 pips from 8.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42516, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42611, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4271 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 range low and the 38.2% NY rally fib exposes 1.4248 (50%) and the 1.4241 london low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, after NY hours, could materially shift this read if he leans toward 50bp
19:02 UTC
Range-bound after post-claims V-reversal · RSI 54 · price 1.42588
Late-NY compression 1.4252–1.4260 below the 1.4271 NY high.
The post-claims dip to the 1.4224 day low undercut the London low and reversed to a 1.4271 NY high, briefly clearing the 1.4265 Asian high as the hawkish-Fed USD bid held. Late NY is compressing in a 1.4252–1.4260 range just above ema20 (1.4255). The pullback low is holding just under the 38.2% claims-low fib, and ATR(14) has eased to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.42552, 1.4252, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 pullback low and ema50 (1.4253) opens the 50% claims-low fib near 1.4248
Close above the 1.4260 range top brings the 1.4265 Asian high and 1.4271 NY high back into play
Loss of 1.4248 exposes the 1.4224 day low
Monthly Budget Statement due now and Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4271 against a pullback low at 1.4252, ATR compressing.
Around the US jobless claims release, price swept below the London low to 1.4224. It then ran through the Asian high to a 1.4271 session high in the first hours of NY, on the USD bid from Fed repricing. Since then late-NY trade has compressed between the 1.4252 pullback low, near the 38.2% NY rally fib, and a 1.4260 lower high. Price sits just above ema20 at 1.4255, with RSI(14) at 53.7 and ATR easing to 6.5 pips from 8.0.
Support: 1.4255, 1.4252, 1.4241
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4265, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4260 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.4265 asian high, then the 1.4271 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 pullback low opens the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4248, then the 1.4241 london low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read; the Monthly Budget Statement in 14 min is a minor risk
NY session swept below the London low to the 1.4224 ny low around the 13:30 UTC claims print, then reversed 47 pips to the 1.4271 ny high, clearing the 1.4265 asia high. Late NY, price is coiling between the 1.4252 pullback low (the 38.2% retrace) and a lower high at 1.4260, sitting just above the ema20 on a descending lower-highs line. RSI(14) is neutral at 51.9 and ATR(14) has compressed to 6.6 pips from 8.0.
Support: 1.42548, 1.42516, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42602, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4260 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 1.4265 asia high and 1.4271 ny high
Loss of the ema20 and the 1.4252 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248
Fed's Schmid (18:30 UTC), Budget Statement (19:00) and Williams (23:30) could break the late-NY compression
Lower highs off 1.4271 session high, base at 38.2% retracement.
NY swept the London low around the jobless claims release to a 1.4224 NY low. Price then reversed through the Asian high to a 1.4271 session high as the hawkish-Fed USD bid reasserted. Late NY has printed lower highs into a 1.4252–1.4260 band at the 38.2% fib, between ema50 (1.42525) and ema20 (1.42547), with RSI(14) flat at 50.5 and ATR(14) easing to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.42516, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42602, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 pullback low and ema50 opens the 50% fib near 1.4248, then the 1.4241 london low
Close above the 1.4260 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.4265 asian high and 1.4271 session high
Fed's Daly now, Schmid in 14 min and Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY consolidation
18:02 UTC
Intraday bounce, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 1.42576
Lower highs off session high, swing low holding.
The NY dip around US jobless claims swept the London low at 1.4241 down to 1.4224. A 47-pip reversal then cleared the Asian high and set a session high at 1.4271, with USD supported by Fed repricing. Since then price has consolidated in a lower-high sequence, holding the 38.2% fib and the 1.4252 swing low, just above ema20 at 1.4255; RSI(14) is neutral at 54.5 and ATR(14) is easing to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.42547, 1.42521, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4252 swing low and ema20 opens the 50% fib near 1.4248, then the London low at 1.4241
Close above the 1.4261 lower high breaks the pullback sequence and reopens the 1.4271 session high
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30) could materially shift this read; Williams follows at 23:30
17:46 UTC
Recovering after NY sweep, pullback holding · RSI 56 · price 1.42599
V-reversal from 1.4224, higher low at 1.4252, minor lower highs.
Around the US jobless claims release, price swept below the london low to a 1.4224 ny low (RSI 22.5), then reversed through the asian high to a 1.4271 session high. The late-NY pullback held at the 1.4252 swing low, near the 38.2% retracement and EMA50, and price is back above both EMAs. ATR is easing to 7.2 pips, with price pressing the lower-high line at 1.4262.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4241, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4265, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4265 asian high and 1.4271 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4252 swing low (38.2% / EMA50 area) exposes the 1.4241 london low
Fed's Daly (24 min) and Schmid (44 min) could reprice USD within the next few bars
Loss of the 1.4224 ny low would void the sweep-and-reversal read
V-reversal from NY low, failed hold above Asian high, lower highs since 15:15 UTC.
The jobless claims release at 13:30 UTC swept the london low and printed an ny low at 1.42241. A V-reversal then cleared the asian high to a session high at 1.42714, but that break failed. After London close price has carved lower highs back to the 38.2% fib near 1.4253, just under ema20 (1.42538) and above ema50 (1.42517). RSI is flat at 49.8, and ATR of 7.8 pips has nearly doubled from 4.2 before the release.
Support: 1.42517, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
An M15 close below ema50 at 1.42517 exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the london low at 1.42406
A close back above the lower high at 1.4261 and the asian high at 1.42649 reopens the session high at 1.42714
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift this read; the ny low at 1.42241 is the reversal origin
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back after NY spike · RSI 56 · price 1.42587
V-reversal from NY low to a fresh session high, now a shallow pullback holding the 38.2% fib.
Around the 13:30 UTC jobless claims release, NY swept the 1.4241 london low down to 1.4224, then reversed 47 pips to a 1.4271 session high. That move cleared the 1.4265 asian high as USD stayed firm on Fed-hike repricing. After London close the pullback held 1.4254, the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, with price above both EMAs. RSI is 56 and ATR has expanded to 7.9 pips from about 4.
Support: 1.42535, 1.42517, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4254 pullback low and the ema50 at 1.4252 exposes the london low at 1.4241
A close back under the 1.4265 asian high shows the breakout losing traction
M15 close above the 1.4271 session high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Goolsbee is still in play
16:31 UTC
NY recovery stalling below session high · RSI 54 · price 1.42595
V-reversal from 1.4224 low, rejected after sweeping Asian high.
Early NY trade dropped to a 1.4224 session low around the jobless claims release, then reversed to sweep the Asian high at 1.4265 and tag a 1.4271 session high. The rejection there was met by demand at the 38.2% fib, which lines up with the ema20 near 1.4253. Price sits above both EMAs, RSI(14) has cooled to 54 from 66, and ATR(14) has doubled to 8 pips.
Support: 1.42534, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Goolsbee speaking now, with Daly at 18:10 and Schmid at 18:30 UTC; Fedspeak could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the ema20 / 38.2% at 1.4253 exposes the london low at 1.4241
An M15 close back above the asian high at 1.4265 brings the 1.4271 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4241 london low would put the NY reversal at risk of retracing to the 1.4224 session low
16:16 UTC
NY-session rally, pulling back to the EMAs · RSI 52 · price 1.42559
False break of the asia high, pullback to 38.2% fib.
The US jobless claims release at the NY open swept the london low at 1.4241 down to 1.4224. A 47-pip rally followed to a 1.4271 session high, briefly clearing the 1.4265 asia high before slipping back below it. Price is now testing 1.4253, where the ema20 meets the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally fib; RSI(14) has cooled from 66 to 51.6 and ATR(14) has doubled to 8 pips.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4248, 1.4241
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4271, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4248 50% fib exposes the london low at 1.4241
A reclaim of the 1.4265 asia high reopens the 1.4271 session high and the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, then Daly 18:10 and Schmid 18:30, could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Sharp NY rebound, pausing below session high · RSI 60 · price 1.42612
V-reversal from session low, testing Asian high.
The dip to a 1.4224 session low on the 13:30 UTC jobless claims release was fully reversed in the NY session. The rally cleared the Asian high at 1.4265 to a 1.4271 session high as hot-CPI USD demand held. Price has eased back to 1.4261, just under the Asian high, with RSI(14) cooling from 66 and ATR(14) expanded to 7.8 pips from about 4.
Support: 1.42586, 1.42529, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Goolsbee in ~30 min, then Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
Holding above the 1.4259 pullback low keeps the retest of the Asian high intact
A break below the ema20 at 1.4253, which coincides with the 38.2% fib, points to a deeper retracement of the NY rally
An M15 close above the 1.4271 session high exposes 1.4300 psych resistance
Loss of 1.4224 session low would fully negate the NY reversal
NY sweep low at 1.4224, then higher highs through the prior high to 1.4271.
The 13:30 UTC claims dip swept the London low at 1.4241 to an NY low of 1.4224. NY then reversed hard on firm USD hike-bet tone, clearing the prior high at 1.4265 to a 1.4271 session high. Price is holding just under that high and above the ema20 (1.4252), with RSI(14) at 65.5 and ATR expanded to 7.8 pips from about 4.
Support: 1.4265, 1.42521, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Goolsbee speaks at 16:30 UTC, about 44m away, with Daly and Schmid after; Fedspeak could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 1.4265 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the ema20 at 1.4252
Acceptance above the 1.4271 session high opens the path to the 1.4287 barrier and the 1.4300 round number
A move back through 1.4224 (NY low) would erase the entire NY rally
V-reversal from 1.4224 day low; higher-low chain through NY, Asian high cleared.
The claims-hour drop to a 1.4224 day low broke the prior-day low and then failed. NY has since climbed 47 pips to a 1.4271 session high, clearing the Asian high near 1.4265 as USD firmness on hawkish Fed repricing reasserted. RSI(14) is at 66 from a 22.5 trough, ATR(14) has roughly doubled to 7.9 pips, and price sits above both the ema20 (1.4251) and ema50 (1.4250).
Support: 1.42586, 1.42507, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.4259 pullback low keeps the recovery line from the day low intact
An M15 close back below the 1.4265 Asian high would mark the breakout as a failed break
An M15 close above the 1.4271 session high opens the 1.4287 barrier and the 1.4300 round number
A loss of the ema20 near 1.4251 (38.2% fib zone) exposes the 1.4224 day low
Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, followed by Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
NY broke below the London low at 1.4241 and reached a 1.4224 NY low around the US claims release, then reversed 44 pips to a 1.4268 session high, clearing the Asian high at 1.4265 as USD held firm on Fed-hike pricing. ATR(14) has doubled to 7.9 pips and RSI(14) sits at 64.6, with price back above the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.4249.
Support: 1.4265, 1.42491, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42679, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4265 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.4249, near the 50% retracement of the NY rally fib, undoes the reversal read
M15 close above the 1.4268 session high opens 1.4287 and the 1.4300 round number
A break of the NY rising line returns the 1.4224 NY low to focus
Goolsbee speaks in ~74 min (16:30 UTC) and Daly at 18:10 UTC; hawkish tone on December hikes could extend this move
The softer 200K claims print sent price through the london low at 1.4241 to an ny low of 1.4224. Supply there was absorbed, and a 42-pip NY rally reclaimed ema20 and ema50 to retest the asian high near 1.4265, which is also the four-week high. RSI(14) is at 66.1 and ATR(14) has expanded from 4.5 to 7.8 pips.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42655, 1.4287, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4265 asian high opens the 1.4287 barrier, then the 1.4300 round number
Rejection at 1.4265 that slips back below the ema50 at 1.4249 turns the NY rally into a range retest
A break back under the 1.4241 london low brings the 1.4224 ny low back into play
Fed's Barr now and Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC could shift this read, with Daly and Schmid due later in NY hours
14:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, back above both EMAs · RSI 58 · price 1.4253
Post-claims sweep below london low reclaimed; testing ny high under asia high.
Around the jobless claims release (200K vs 195K) price swept below the london low at 1.4241 to a ny low of 1.4224, then reversed and reclaimed the move, with RSI(14) recovering from 22.5 to 58. Price now sits above the ema50 at 1.4248 and is testing the ny high at 1.4257, about 71% back toward the Asia session high of 1.4265, with ATR(14) expanding from about 4 to 7.4 pips.
Support: 1.42482, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42573, 1.42649
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4265 asia high would mark a fresh four-week high and break the session range
Rejection at the 1.4257 ny high and a close back below the ema50 at 1.4248 would weaken the reclaim
Failure to hold the 1.4241 london low reopens the 1.4224 ny low
Fed's Barr and US Existing Home Sales in 14 minutes, then Goolsbee, could shift this read during NY hours
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high, post-claims rebound · RSI 48 · price 1.4247
Lower highs since 1.4265; London-low sweep on claims rejected.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4265 Asia high. The 200K jobless claims print at 13:30 UTC drove a sweep below the 1.4241 London low to the 1.4224 claims low, which was rejected within two bars. Price is back at the 50% fib of the decline near 1.4245, just under ema50 at 1.4248, with RSI recovered to 47.9 from 22.5 and ATR expanded to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42479, 1.4253, 1.42649
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4253 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the Asia high
Rejection at the ema50 near 1.4248 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.4241 London low re-exposes the 1.4224 claims low
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, sweep below London low reclaimed.
Lower highs since the 1.4265 Asia high carried through London, and the 200K jobless claims print (f/c 195K) drove a sweep to the 1.4224 claims low before a V-recovery back above the 1.4241 London low. Price sits just under ema20 (1.4245) and ema50 (1.4248), RSI(14) back to 47.6 from 22.5, ATR expanding to 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.4241, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.42449, 1.4253, 1.4265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4253 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4265 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4241 london low reopens the 1.4224 claims low
Rejection at ema20 keeps the claims drop retracement capped below the range top
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia high; London low broken, rebound capped below ema20.
USD/CAD extended its London slide from the 1.4265 Asia high into the US claims print (200K vs 195K). It broke the 1.4241 London low and reached a 1.4224 session low as RSI(14) dipped to 22.5 and ATR expanded to 6.3 pips. The NY open rebound stalled at the 38.2% fib near 1.4239, with price still below the ema20 (1.4245) and the falling trendline whose last lower high sits at 1.4253.
Support: 1.42241, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42406, 1.42449, 1.4253
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4241 London low and the ema20 at 1.4245 would neutralise the breakdown
A break of the 1.4253 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4224 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Hammack (now), then Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~1h, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia high; London range floor and prior low broken in early NY.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4265 Asia session high. In early NY it broke the London low near 1.4241 and yesterday's 1.4234 prior low, extending to a 1.4224 session low around a slightly soft 200K jobless claims print. RSI(14) at 22.5 is oversold, ATR has expanded from 4.0 to 5.8 pips, and price sits below both EMAs after the ema20 crossed under the ema50.
Support: 1.42241, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.42335, 1.42406, 1.42458
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4234 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4224 session low exposes the 1.4220 round number and the 1.4200 zone
A recovery through the 1.4241 london low and the ema20 at 1.4246 would challenge the descending highs line
Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC and Barr at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high, prior low broken.
USDCAD has carved lower highs off the 1.4265 Asian high and dropped 15 pips in the bar before US jobless claims, slicing the 1.4241 London low and the prior low at 1.4233 to a fresh session low at 1.4230. RSI(14) at 24.5 is oversold, ATR is expanding to 5.5 pips and price sits below the ema20 at 1.4248 and ema50 at 1.4250.
Support: 1.42296, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42335, 1.42406, 1.42475
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims (195K f/c) lands in the current bar; Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC follows
M15 close back above the 1.4241 London low would turn the prior low break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4230 session low exposes the 1.4200 psych level
Close above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 near 1.4248 would neutralise the downtrend read
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing under EMAs · RSI 43 · price 1.42466
Lower highs from the Asian high, tight range above the London low.
London unwound the Asian push to the 1.4265 asian high, a four-week high, printing lower highs down to a 1.4241 london low as broad USD lost steam. The bounce found rejection at the 38.2–50% fib near 1.4250–1.4253. Price is coiling in a 1.4244–1.4253 range under the ema20 and ema50 into the NY open, with RSI(14) at 42.8 off a 30.6 low and ATR(14) at 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.4244, 1.42406, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42502, 1.4253, 1.42649
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could break the 1.4244 range floor or the 1.4253 range top
An M15 close above the 1.4253 range top and the ema50 at 1.4250 would invalidate the lower-high sequence and reopen the 1.4265 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4241 london low confirms a lower-low, with yesterday's 1.4231 prior low next below
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off the Asia high · RSI 43 · price 1.4246
Lower highs from 1.4265; London broke to 1.4241, bounce capped at 1.4252.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4265 asia high as the USD rally cooled into Europe. London broke down to the 1.4241 london low before a bounce stalled at the 1.4252 bounce high, near the 50% fib retrace. Price sits just under the ema20 (1.4249) after a fresh ema20/ema50 cross lower; RSI 43 is off its near-30 trough and ATR is 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42494, 1.42517, 1.42649
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT (f/c 195K), with Fedspeak from 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read at the NY open
A break of the 1.4241 london low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the prior low at 1.4231
An M15 close above the 1.4252 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 1.4265 asia high back in view
Holding below the ema20 keeps the London breakdown structure intact
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.42463
Lower-high chain from the 1.4265 Asia high; Asian range low broken in London, rebound capped at 50%.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4243 to a london low of 1.4241 as the USD rally cooled. The rebound met rejection at 1.4252, a 50% retrace of the London drop and a fresh lower high in the chain from the 1.4265 Asia high. Price sits below the ema20 (1.4250) and EMA50, with EMA20 crossed under EMA50 and RSI(14) 43.8 after recovering from 30.6; ATR(14) 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42496, 1.42517, 1.42649
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT, then Fed speakers from 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
M15 close above the 1.4252 lower high and the London trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the london low at 1.4241 exposes the prior low at 1.4230 from yesterday's NY session
Asia high at 1.4265 is the four-week high and caps the session range
12:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.42486
Lower highs from 1.4265 Asia high; London low 1.4241 holding, bounce stalling at EMA cluster.
Lower highs from the Asia high; London low at 1.4241 holding.
London unwound the Asia spike to the 1.4265 asia high as USD eased off its post-CPI highs, carving lower highs down to a 1.4241 london low. The rebound into the London-NY transition met rejection at the ema20 (1.4250), near the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Price sits below both EMAs, and RSI(14) has recovered from 30.6 to 42.9.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.42558, 1.42649
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4241 london low resumes lower lows toward the 1.4231 prior low
A close above the ema20 and the 1.4256 lower high breaks the London lower-highs line
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range
12:02 UTC
London downtrend, bounce stalling below EMAs · RSI 45 · price 1.42476
Lower highs from Asian high; false break of Asian low reclaimed.
USD/CAD faded from the 1.4265 Asian high, a four-week high, through London as the dollar trimmed post-CPI gains. The pair printed lower highs along the London trendline and made a false break of the 1.4243 Asian low to a 1.4241 London low. That dip was reclaimed and the bounce is stalling at the 38.2% fib near the ema20 (1.4250) ahead of NY open. The ema20 has crossed below the ema50, RSI(14) has recovered to 45 from 31, and ATR is compressed at 4 pips.
Support: 1.42431, 1.42406, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42502, 1.42558, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4256 lower high would break the London trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 1.4243 Asian low would expose the 1.4241 London low, then the 1.4234 NY low from yesterday
Rejection at the ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.4250 keeps the London downtrend read intact
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce stalling under EMAs · RSI 42 · price 1.42473
Lower highs through London, double low at 1.4241.
London faded the Asia high at 1.4265 as DXY trimmed its post-CPI gains. Price printed a string of lower highs into a London low at 1.4241 that matched the rollover low, and EMA20 has crossed below EMA50. The late-London bounce to 1.4248 is stalling just under the ema20 at 1.4250, which lines up with the 38.2% of the fade fib, while RSI(14) recovers to 42 from 31.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42504, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 near 1.4250 and the London lower highs line negates the fade structure
Failure to hold the london low at 1.4241 confirms a lower low and exposes the prior low at 1.4230
Reclaim of the asia high at 1.4265 restores the Asian upleg
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) at 4.1 pips
Lower highs through London after Asian range break; base at 1.4241.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.4256 and stepped lower to a 1.4241 London low, matching the rollover spike low, as DXY trimmed its post-CPI highs in Europe. Price is bouncing back toward the ema20 at 1.4251 under a falling trendline of London lower highs. RSI(14) has recovered to 42 from 31 and ATR sits at 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42355
Resistance: 1.42507, 1.42555, 1.42649
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema20 / 1.4251 and the falling trendline weakens the lower-high read; the Asian low at 1.4256 is the next cap, then the Asian high at 1.4265
Failure to hold the 1.4241 London low extends lower lows toward the 1.4236 swing low
38.2–50% fib retrace of the London leg (1.4249–1.4252) overlaps the EMAs; rejection there keeps the London leg intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London unwound the Asia push to the 1.4265 Asian high. Price broke below the Asian range on a series of lower highs and printed a 1.4241 London low, as DXY trimmed toward 102.80. RSI(14) has lifted from 30.6 to 38.1, with price still under the ema20 (1.4251), which has just crossed below the EMA50 and caps the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42511, 1.42558, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4256 lower high and the London trendline negates the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4251 puts price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the 1.4241 London low exposes the yday NY low at 1.4234
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia-high push to 1.4265 unwound; price back inside yesterday's NY range.
London has steadily unwound the Asia-session push to the 1.4265 asia high, printing lower highs along a falling trendline and dropping below the ema20 (1.4252, ema50 just under at 1.4251) to a 1.4241 session low, even with USD broadly bid on Fed-hike pricing. RSI(14) at 30.6 sits just above oversold, ATR 4.4 pips; price is back in yesterday's NY range with the 1.4234 ny low beneath.
Support: 1.42406, 1.42335, 1.4230
Resistance: 1.42517, 1.42558, 1.42649
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4256 lower high breaks the London trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4241 session low exposes the 1.4234 ny low and the 1.4230 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from Hammack and Barr in the NY session could materially shift this read
Recovery through the ema20 near 1.4252 reaches the 50% of the London selloff fib
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 1.42413
Asian range broken to the downside, testing rollover low.
London has unwound the Asian-session push to 1.4265, with lower highs from the 1.4263 London high and a slip below the 1.4243 Asian low. Price is now testing the 1.4240 rollover low with RSI(14) at 31.1 and both EMAs overhead. The Fed-repricing USD bid has stalled into the European morning; ATR runs at 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42431, 1.42527, 1.42628
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4240 rollover low opens the 1.4234 swing low from yesterday's NY session
Reclaim of the 1.4243 Asian low and a close above the ema20 near 1.4253 would negate the lower-high trendline
RSI(14) below 30 would put the slide into oversold territory
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 1.42471
London lower-high chain from 1.4263, price back in lower half of Asian range.
After a 1.4265 Asian high, London has ground lower from the 1.4263 open high in a steady chain of lower highs. That has put price below both the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 36.9 and ATR near 4.5 pips. The session low at 1.4245 sits just above the Asian low at 1.4243 as the USD trims early gains from the post-CPI, Fed-hike-driven bid.
Support: 1.42453, 1.42431, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.42522, 1.42538, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.4254 and the London lower highs line breaks the downtrend read
Failure to hold the session low and the 1.4243 Asian low opens the 1.4240 round number flagged as support in the CAD digest
Recovery through the ema50 at 1.4252 toward the 1.4265 Asian high would put the range top back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the London open, Asian range floor broken.
London has cut a string of lower highs from 1.4263 and broken below the 1.4255 Asian range floor. The 10:00 UTC bar closed at the session low of 1.4248, under both the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR steady at 4.5 pips. The dip fits the digest's read of the USD trimming early gains in European trade. The overnight swing low at 1.4243 and the Asia low at 1.4240 are the next shelf below.
Support: 1.42482, 1.42431, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42524, 1.42545, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 at 1.4252 and the ema20 at 1.4255 would break the London lower highs line and reopen the 1.4265 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4243 swing low exposes the 1.4240 Asia low, which is also the digest's 1.4240 support
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read at the NY open
London lower highs off Asia high, holding above ema50.
London rejected the 1.4263 london high just under the 1.4265 asia high and has printed lower highs into a 1.4250 london low, about a 62% retrace of the Asia leg from the 1.4241 rollover low. Price is pinned between the ema20 (1.4255) and the ema50 (1.4253), with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and ATR 4.4 pips, as the post-CPI dollar bid on Fed-hike pricing consolidates.
Support: 1.42526, 1.42497, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42551, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 london low breaks the 62% Asia leg retrace and exposes the 1.4241 rollover low
A close back above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4256 reopens the 1.4263 london high and 1.4265 asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could break this compression
09:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 43 · price 1.42525
Lower-high chain inside the Asian range, pressing session low.
London was rejected at the 1.4263 london high, just shy of the 1.4265 asia high, and has printed lower highs along a descending trendline as the dollar gave back early gains in Europe. Price now sits on the 1.4250 session low, near the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib. It holds below the ema20 at 1.4255 and fractionally below the ema50, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.42497, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42552, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4250 session low exposes the 1.4243 asian low
A close back above the ema20 at 1.4255 and the descending trendline would neutralise the lower-high chain
Back above the 1.4263 london high reopens a test of the 1.4265 asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is only 4.5 pips
09:31 UTC
Pullback within Asian range, momentum fading · RSI 40 · price 1.42523
London lower highs, testing 61.8% of Asian leg.
London has stepped lower from the 1.4263 London high in a chain of lower highs, pulling price back to the 61.8% of the Asian leg near the 1.4250 London low. Closes sit below ema20 and ema50 and RSI(14) has slid from 57 to 40, matching the early-Europe USD give-back after the post-CPI rally; ATR at 4.5 pips keeps swings tight.
Support: 1.42497, 1.42431, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42556, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 London low breaks the Asian-leg fib and exposes the 1.4243 Asian low
Loss of the 1.4243 Asian low opens the 1.4240 rollover low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.4256 and the London lower-highs line neutralises the pullback; 1.4263 London high and 1.4265 Asian high cap above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower highs from 1.4263, testing ema50 and 61.8% retrace.
Asia ran the post-rollover recovery up to the 1.4265 asia high on the broad USD bid and softer crude, but London has printed lower highs under a descending trendline from the 1.4263 london high after an early rejection there. Price sits below ema20 (1.4256) and on ema50 (1.4253). The 1.4250 london low lines up with the 61.8% retrace. RSI is 45.7, cooling from 63, and ATR is flat at 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42526, 1.42497, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42561, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 london low / 61.8% retrace exposes the 1.4240 rollover low
Close above the London trendline and ema20 near 1.4256 puts price back inside the Asia range toward the london high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reset the NY range
09:02 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asian high, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 1.42503
Lower highs since 1.42649, London breaking below the post-breakout Asian floor.
Firm USD and softer crude lifted the pair through 1.4260 in Asia to an asia high at 1.42649. London has since printed lower highs, capped at the london high of 1.42628. Price has slipped below the 1.4255 floor and the ema20, and the latest close held just above the ema50 at 1.42526. The forming bar is probing the 61.8% fib near 1.4250, with RSI(14) easing to 44 and ATR steady at 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42526, 1.42431, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42563, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4250 / 61.8% fib exposes the asia low at 1.42431, then the rollover low at 1.42405
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.42563 breaks the lower-highs line and returns price to the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Sideways after Asian breakout, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.4256
Tight 1.4253–1.4263 range in early London, below Asian high.
USDCAD cleared yesterday's NY range during Asia on the firm USD and softer crude, topping at the 1.4265 asian high, and has since compressed into a 1.4253–1.4263 band through early London. Price sits just under the ema20 at 1.4257 with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR at 4.5 pips. The london low at 1.4253, in line with the ema50 and the 50% fib of the Asian breakout, has absorbed repeated probes.
Support: 1.42526, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42567, 1.42649, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4253 london low and ema50 exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4251 and then the 1.4243 asian low
Close above the 1.4265 asian high reopens the 1.4287 barrier
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4257 shifts the range back toward its top
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could break the London range
Asia breakout above 1.4253, now ranging 1.4253–1.4265.
Asia pushed through 1.4253 to an asian high at 1.4265 on crude-led CAD weakness, then settled into a 1.4253–1.4265 consolidation. London open has twice tested the range low at 1.4253, which sits near the 50% fib, while price holds just under the ema20 at 1.4257 and above the ema50, with RSI(14) at 51.
Support: 1.42532, 1.42524, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42568, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4253 range low breaks rising support and exposes the ema50 at 1.4252, then the asian low at 1.4243
Close above the 1.4265 asian high resumes the post-breakout leg
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Consolidation 1.4253–1.4265 above Asia breakout, rising support intact.
USDCAD broke out of the Asian range at 1.4265 (session high) on crude weakness and a firm USD, then went flat. London open tested the 1.4253 range floor four times; the floor is holding near the 50% of the Asia leg fib, and rising support from the 1.4243 Asia low is intact. Price is just below the ema20 at 1.4257 and above the ema50 at 1.4252, RSI(14) has eased from 63 to 50, and ATR(14) is about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.4253, 1.42522, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42568, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4253 range floor and the ema50 at 1.4252 breaks rising support, opening the path to the 1.4243 Asia low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.4257 puts the 1.4263 London high and the 1.4265 session high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below the Asia high · RSI 48 · price 1.42589
Post-breakout consolidation 1.4253–1.4265, early London.
USDCAD broke out of the Asia base at 1.4243 around 02:30 UTC and printed a 1.4265 Asia high, with sliding crude and a firm USD behind the move. It has since held a 1.4253–1.4265 consolidation. London open stalled at a 1.4263 London high and then probed the 1.4253 London low, near the 50% retrace of the Asia breakout and just above the EMA50 at 1.4252. The last closed bar sits below the EMA20 at 1.4257, with RSI(14) cooled from 66 to 48 and ATR(14) compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42532, 1.42521, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42569, 1.42628, 1.42649
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4253 London low and the EMA50 breaks the consolidation and exposes the 1.4243 Asia base.
A close back above the EMA20 at 1.4257 and the 1.4263 London high puts the 1.4265 Asia high back in play.
A break of the Asia high opens the path toward the 1.4287 resistance cited in the CAD digest.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could expand the range in NY hours.
07:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 1.4255
Higher lows since yesterday's NY session; 1.4253–1.4265 consolidation since mid-Asia, base under test.
USDCAD set an Asian high at 1.4265, helped by sliding crude and hawkish Fed repricing, then held a 1.4253–1.4265 range into early Europe. The latest close slipped under the flat ema20 (1.4257) to test the range low, near the 50% level of the Asian leg fib. RSI is at 47.5, price is still above the ema50 at 1.4252, and the rising support line from yesterday's 1.4234 swing low sits near 1.4250.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4243, 1.4234
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.4263, 1.4265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4253 range low and the rising support exposes the 1.4243 asian low
Loss of 1.4243 asian low breaks the higher-low chain back toward the 1.4234 swing low
Reclaiming the ema20 and closing above the 1.4263 range top and 1.4265 asian high reopens 1.4287
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read; ATR at 4.5 pips is ticking higher off compression
Tight consolidation below Asia high, higher lows intact.
Asia extended the post-rollover leg to an Asia high of 1.4265 on softer crude and a firm USD, then went sideways in a 1.4255–1.4263 range near the 38.2% fib. London open dipped through the range floor to a London low of 1.4253, but price closed back above it and sits just over the ema20. RSI has cooled from 67.6 to 54.9, and ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42573, 1.42555, 1.42534
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 Asia high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4287 barrier
Failure to hold the 1.4253 London low breaks rising support and the range floor, exposing ema50 at 1.4252
Repeated closes below ema20 at 1.4257 would confirm the range floor is giving way
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Crude direction remains the dominant CAD driver within the session
USDCAD broke higher from the early Asian range at 02:30 UTC and has since consolidated beneath the 1.4265 session high. Price is holding above both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 54, and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.3 pips. The early-London dip swept the 1.4256 range low, which is the 38.2% of the Asia leg, and was reclaimed, with sliding crude and post-CPI USD demand keeping CAD soft.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42516, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4287
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4256 range low and the ema50 at 1.4252 points to a deeper retracement toward rising support near 1.4249
A break of the 1.4241 asian low invalidates the rising support line and the post-Asia breakout
A close above the 1.4265 session high opens the path to the 1.4287 CAD barrier
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain intact; Asian breakout now basing in a 6-pip range below the Asian high.
London open finds USDCAD coiled between the 1.42555 range floor and the 1.42619 range top, under the 1.42649 Asian high. It is holding the 38.2% retrace of the Asian leg from 1.42431, with EMA20 at 1.4257 and the rising support line just beneath. Broad USD strength on Fed hike pricing and softer crude drove the Asian break higher; RSI(14) at 57.1 and ATR(14) compressing to 4.1 pips reflect a pause rather than exhaustion.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42513, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42619, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.42555 range floor breaks rising support and opens the ema50 at 1.42513 and the 50% retrace of the Asian leg
Clearance of the 1.42649 Asian high extends the higher-high chain; failure there keeps the consolidation read
Loss of the 1.42431 Asian low would undo the overnight breakout structure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could break the current compression
HH/HL intact; Asia breakout now in tight consolidation.
USDCAD broke out of the overnight 1.4243–1.4253 band early in Asia on broad post-CPI USD strength. It printed a 1.4265 session high, then stalled into a 1.4255–1.4262 consolidation that is holding the 38.2% of the Asia leg. The range floor has held three times with price just above the ema20 at 1.4257, while ATR has compressed from 5.4 to 4.1 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42555, 1.4253, 1.42509
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4255 range floor and ema20 exposes the 1.4253 prior high and Asia leg fib 50%
Close above the 1.4262 range top and the 1.4265 session high extends the Asia breakout
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4251 and the rising support trendline near 1.4249 would break the HL chain
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.42556
Asian breakout above 1.4250 now consolidating in a tight 1.4255–1.4265 band.
USD/CAD cleared yesterday's 1.4250 range top during Asia on the CPI-driven USD bid and printed a session high at 1.4265, then settled into a 10-pip consolidation. Price now tests the range low near 1.4256, which coincides with the rising support line from 1.4202. It sits just under the ema20 at 1.4257 and above the ema50 at 1.4251. RSI(14) has cooled from 68 to 51 and ATR has compressed to 4.1 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42506, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42565, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4255 range low breaks the rising support line and exposes the ema50 / 23.6% fib area near 1.4250
Failure to hold 1.4250 brings the asian low at 1.4243 into play and negates the Asian breakout
Close back above the 1.4265 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 could materially shift this read
Tight 1.4255–1.4262 box after Asia breakout; ATR compressing.
USD strength after the hot US CPI carried USDCAD out of its 1.4243–1.4254 early-Asia range at 02:30 UTC to a session high at 1.4265. Since then price has been boxed between a 1.4256 swing low and a 1.4262 range top. That box sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Asia leg, just above ema20 at 1.42566. RSI(14) has cooled to 55 and ATR has compressed to 4.2 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42504, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42619, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 session high resumes the Asia-leg advance
Break of the 1.4255 swing low exposes ema50 at 1.4250, near the 50% retracement of the Asia leg
Loss of the 1.4243 asian low negates the Asia breakout
London open could break the compressed range in either direction
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia breakout · RSI 53 · price 1.42579
Tight consolidation above broken Asian range high.
USD/CAD cleared the Asian range high at 1.4254 around 03:30 UTC and printed a session high at 1.42649. It has since compressed in a 1.4256–1.4262 band, holding the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib with price above both EMAs and the ema50 rising at 1.4250. RSI(14) has cooled from 67.6 to 53.3 and ATR has slipped to 4.2 pips ahead of London open, with post-CPI USD strength and softer crude still underpinning the pair.
Support: 1.42555, 1.4254, 1.42501
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.42555 range low puts the 1.4254 asian high retest in play; failure there negates the breakout
Close above the 1.42649 session high resumes the HH chain out of the 1.4256–1.4262 range top
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4250 would return price to the prior Asian range
London open at 07:00 UTC typically expands the compressed 4.2-pip ATR
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above the overnight range, now a tight consolidation under the session high.
USDCAD broke above the overnight 1.4243–1.4253 range early in the Asia session on the broad post-CPI USD bid. It printed a 1.4265 session high and has stalled in a 1.4256–1.4265 consolidation since. RSI(14) has cooled from 67.6 to 53.3 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.3 pips, with price holding just above the ema20 near the 38.2% retrace and the ema50 at 1.4250 below.
Support: 1.42564, 1.4253, 1.42498
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4265 session high resumes the breakout and opens the path to the 1.4300 psych level
A slip back under the 1.4253 range top turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the ema50 near 1.4250
London open is likely to resolve the current consolidation; ATR at 4.3 pips points to compressed ranges until then
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the Asia high · RSI 58 · price 1.42589
Higher lows since NY session; Asia broke 1.4253 cap, now tight range.
Asia broke the 1.4253 prior high that capped NY hours and printed 1.4265, extending the USD-led leg on Fed hike pricing and softer crude. Late Asia session is holding a 1.4256–1.4262 range above the range low, close to the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib. Price is above both EMAs along the rising trendline, with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR(14) easing to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42557, 1.4253, 1.42495
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4256 range low exposes the 1.4253 prior high for a retest
A clear break of the 1.4265 Asia high opens the 1.4270 round number into London open
Loss of the ema50 near 1.4250 and the rising trendline would break the higher-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, followed by the Fed speaker slate, could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout, now consolidating above the range top.
Asia broke above its 1.4243–1.4254 range at 02:30 UTC and printed a 1.4265 session high, extending the higher-low chain from Wednesday's NY rally as post-CPI USD strength persists. Price has since compressed into a 1.4257–1.4262 box, sitting on ema20 and the 38.2% fib of the Asia breakout leg. RSI has cooled from 67.6 to 54 and ATR has eased to 4.4 pips ahead of London.
Support: 1.4256, 1.42538, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4254 asian high would put the breakout at risk of a false break
Failure to hold 1.4243 (asian low) and the rising trendline near 1.4248 breaks the higher-low chain
M15 close above the 1.4265 session high resumes the HH sequence, with the 1.4300 round number next
London open liquidity is likely to test the compressed box and ATR could expand from 4.4 pips
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke above its 1.4254 range high at 02:30 UTC and set a 1.4265 session high, extending the broad post-CPI USD bid. Price is consolidating just above the ema20, and the pullback has held near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4243–1.4265 leg. RSI(14) has cooled from 68 to 59 and ATR has compressed to 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42559, 1.4254, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4254 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 1.4265 session high reopens the path toward the 1.4300 round number
Break of the rising Asia trendline and the ema50 near 1.4249 would end the higher-low sequence
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC, plus oil/US-Iran headlines, could shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia breakout · RSI 57 · price 1.42581
The Asia session cleared the 1.4253–54 ceiling at 02:30 UTC and printed a 1.4265 session high, extending broad USD strength on Fed-hike repricing and softer crude. Since then price has held a tight 1.4257–1.4265 consolidation just above the ema20 (1.42555). RSI(14) has cooled to 56.8 from 67.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.42573, 1.42555, 1.42538
Resistance: 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4257 range low opens a retest of the 1.4254 breakout lvl, near the 50% of the asia leg fib
A close back under the 1.4254 breakout lvl would turn the Asia move into a false break
A close above the 1.4265 session high resumes the higher-high chain
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break, tight consolidation above range top.
Asia broke the overnight range top at 1.42538 around 02:30 UTC and set an asia high at 1.42649 as the USD bid extended on Fed-hike repricing. Late in the Asia session, price is holding a 1.42573–1.42649 consolidation above a rising ema20 (1.42552), with RSI(14) easing to 63 from 68 and ATR compressing to 4.6 pips. A rising support line from the NY low at 1.42335 underpins the structure.
Support: 1.42573, 1.42538, 1.4248
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the range top at 1.42538 turns the Asian breakout into a false break
Break of the flag low at 1.42573 opens the 50% retracement of the breakout leg near the range top
Close above the asia high at 1.42649 extends the uptrend toward the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the ema50 at 1.42480 and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain
US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, plus US-Iran and oil headlines, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, tight consolidation above it.
Late in the Asia session, price broke the 1.4253 range top at 02:30 UTC and printed a 1.4265 session high, extending the post-CPI USD bid as softer crude weighs on CAD. Since then it has held a tight 1.4257–1.4265 shelf on rising lows above a climbing ema20 (1.42546). RSI(14) has cooled from 67.6 to 62.6 and ATR has eased to 4.8 pips, so the move is stalling, not expanding.
Support: 1.42573, 1.4253, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4253 range top would turn the breakout into a false break and put the 1.4243 asian low back in play
Loss of the 1.4257 pullback low breaks the rising lows line
Clearance of the 1.4265 session high opens room toward the 1.4300 round number
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, plus oil/US-Iran headlines, could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, higher lows since NY intact.
Asia broke above its early 1.4243–1.4254 range around 02:30 UTC as the post-CPI USD bid extended, printing a session high at 1.4265 before stalling into a tight 1.4257–1.4265 hold above a rising ema20 at 1.4254. RSI(14) has cooled from 67.6 to 60.8 with ATR(14) at 4.9 pips, and the higher-low sequence since NY along the rising trendline is intact.
Support: 1.4257, 1.4254, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4257 pullback low puts the ema20 and Asian range top near 1.4254 (50% of the Asia leg fib) in play as a retest
Failure to hold the 1.4243 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline
A close above the 1.4265 session high extends the breakout, with the 1.4300 round number the next reference
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate on 25bp vs 50bp could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY; Asian range broken higher, holding above.
USD strength on Fed hike bets carried USDCAD out of its 1.4243–1.4254 Asian range at 01:30 UTC. The breakout leg topped at the 1.4265 session high and price is holding near 1.4259, above both EMAs, with RSI(14) easing from 67.6 to 61.9 and rising lows intact since the NY dip to 1.4234.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.42649
What it said to watch
M15 close back inside the range below the 1.4254 Asian high reads as a false break
Clearance of the 1.4265 session high extends the breakout leg into London
Loss of the 1.4243 Asian low breaks the rising lows sequence
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and heavy Fedspeak could shift this read
Asian range broken higher, higher lows since 01:00 UTC.
USDCAD broke above the Asia high at 1.42538 in late Asia as broad USD strength from the post-CPI rates repricing carried on. The pair set a session high at 1.42649, and the 03:15 UTC bar was rejected there. RSI(14) has eased from 67.6 to 60.8, while price holds above both EMAs. The ema50 at 1.42458 sits just above the Asia low at 1.42431.
Support: 1.42538, 1.42458, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.4270
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the Asia high at 1.42538 keeps the higher-low trendline and breakout intact
An M15 close back inside the Asian range below 1.42538 would turn the breakout into a false break and put the ema50 and the Asia low at 1.42431 in play
A close above the session high at 1.42649 opens the 1.4270 round number
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, Asia breakout extending · RSI 66 · price 1.42633
Higher lows since NY low; overnight range broken higher.
Asia session broke above the overnight 1.4243–1.4254 range in a 02:30 UTC leg to a session high at 1.4264. That extends the USD bid that followed the hot US CPI. RSI(14) is 65.7, warm but not overbought, and price holds above the ema20 (1.4252) and ema50 (1.4245), with the rising support from yesterday's NY low intact and ATR(14) edging up to 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.4254, 1.42521, 1.4243
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4254 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4243 asian low breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4264 session high leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, later Williams) could materially shift this read
Late in the Asia session, price broke above the 1.4241–1.4254 Asian range and printed a session high at 1.4264 as the dollar extends its post-CPI rally. It holds above ema20 (1.4251) and ema50 (1.4245), with ATR expanding to 5.4 pips. The rising lows from yesterday's NY pullback at 1.4234 remain intact.
Support: 1.42538, 1.42512, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42638, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close back below the asian high at 1.4254 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of ema20 at 1.4251 and the rising lows line would expose the asian low at 1.4241
Clearance of the 1.4264 session high leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next marker
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout in late Asia · RSI 68 · price 1.42614
Asian range broken to the upside; higher lows intact since London.
Late Asia broke the Asian high and prior NY high near 1.4254, printing a session high at 1.4264. ATR(14) has expanded from 3.6 to 5.4 pips and RSI(14) sits at 67.6, short of overbought. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.4250 along rising lows, extending the broad USD bid after the hot US CPI.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4250, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42638, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Asian high at 1.4254 turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close back below the ema20 at 1.4250 and the rising lows line weakens the uptrend read
Loss of the Asian low at 1.4241 reopens the full overnight range
Acceptance above the session high at 1.4264 brings the 1.4300 round number into view
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.42535
Higher lows since NY afternoon low; Asia pushing a new 24h high.
USD/CAD printed a fresh 24h session high at 1.4256 in the Asia session. That extends the rising support of higher lows from the NY afternoon low at 1.4234, with the dollar still bid on Fed hike pricing and softer crude. Price holds above the ema20 (1.4249) and ema50 (1.4243), the Asian low at 1.4243 sits on the ema50, RSI(14) is 58.8 and ATR has expanded to 5 pips from 3.7.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42431
Resistance: 1.42562, 1.4260
What it said to watch
Failure to hold above the 1.4256 session high keeps Asia capped below the 1.4260 round number
M15 close below the ema20 at 1.4249 and the rising support line puts the Asian low / ema50 at 1.4243 in play
A pullback holding the NY low to Asia high fib 50% area near 1.4245 keeps the higher-low chain intact
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers incl. Williams could materially shift this read later today
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into consolidation · RSI 55 · price 1.42508
Tight Asian range under the session high after a steady 24h grind higher.
The rally leg from 1.4192 ran through the London and NY sessions on post-CPI USD strength and softer crude. It has flattened into a 1.4243–1.4254 Asian range just under the asian high at 1.42538. Price holds above the ema20 (1.42483) and ema50 (1.42428), with RSI(14) neutral at 54.7. ATR(14) at 5 pips points to compressed ranges near the top of the rally fib.
Support: 1.42483, 1.42431, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42538
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.42538 asian high resumes the uptrend sequence.
Loss of the 1.42431 asian low, with the ema50 just below, opens the ny swing low at 1.42335 and the shallow end of the rally fib.
Repeated M15 closes below the ema20 at 1.42483 would mark the consolidation turning heavier.
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC (Williams 23:30 UTC) could break the current range.
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 56 · price 1.42494
Tight Asia session range 1.4243–1.4254 above rising lows.
USD/CAD is holding the post-CPI, Fed-hike-driven rally from 1.4189 and is compressing early in the Asia session between the asia low at 1.4243, where the ema50 sits, and the asia high at 1.4254. Price is pinned around the 1.4250 psych mark, just above the ema20 at 1.4248. The day's rally fib anchors that move, rising lows from the NY session remain intact, and RSI is neutral at 55.5 with ATR at 5 pips.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4243, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.42538
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4254 asia high breaks the range and extends the day's rally
Failure to hold the 1.4243 asia low / ema50 breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.4234 ny low
Repeated rejection at 1.4250 psych keeps the range read in play
US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed-speaker slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 55 · price 1.42517
Tight Asian range under session high, rising lows intact.
USDCAD has pushed past the 1.4230 four-week high on post-CPI USD demand and the weak Canadian jobs data. It now sits just under the 1.4254 session high in late Asia. Since the rollover gap the pair has held a 1.4240–1.4254 range, with repeated tests of the 1.4243 range floor. Price is above a flat ema20 (1.4248) and a rising EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral at 54.5 and ATR(14) has expanded to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.42477, 1.42431, 1.42405
Resistance: 1.42538, 1.4260
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4254 session high exposes the 1.4260 round number
A break below the 1.4243 range floor and the 1.4240 asian low would put the rising lows trendline from 1.4234 under test
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate later today could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in a tight Asian range · RSI 54 · price 1.42521
Higher lows since the NY swing low; Asia compressing below the 24h high.
Post-CPI USD demand and a soft CAD carried the pair on a 24h leg from 1.4186 to the 24h high at 1.42532 across London and NY. The rollover sweep to 1.42405 was quickly reclaimed. Asia is holding a tight 1.4243–1.4251 range above the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.2, ATR(14) up to 5.1 pips, and the current bar pressing the range top.
Support: 1.42475, 1.42431, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532, 1.4260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42532 24h high breaks the Asian consolidation and puts the 1.4260 round number in play
Close below the 1.42431 Asian low breaks the range lower and exposes the rising trendline near 1.4240 and the 23.6% fib of the 24h leg near 1.4237
Loss of the 1.42335 NY swing low would end the higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.42438
Higher-low chain from Wednesday; tight Asian range 1.4241–1.4253.
Wednesday's grind higher on hot-CPI Fed repricing stalled at the 1.4253 range high after the rollover, and early Asia is drifting inside a 12-pip box. Price sits just under the flattening ema20 at 1.4247, but holds the rising ema50 and the rising support line from the 1.4234 swing low, with RSI(14) at a neutral 45.8 and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.42415, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42472, 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4241 asian low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4234 swing low
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 1.4253 range high resumes the uptrend
Deeper pullback targets the wed rally fib 38.2% near 1.4227
Thu 13:30 UTC US Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
USDCAD is holding above the 1.4230 four-week high after the hot US CPI follow-through, but early Asia session trade has gone flat in a 1.4243–1.4253 band. The rollover spike set the session high at 1.4253. Price sits just under the ema20, which has flattened, and above a rising ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.6 and ATR at 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.42432, 1.42414, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4253 session high breaks the Asian band to the upside
Failure below the 1.4243 asian low exposes the ema50 at 1.4241, roughly the 38.2–50% fib of the NY-Asia leg, then the 1.4234 swing low
US Initial Jobless Claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Tight Asia range 1.4248–1.4251 under 1.4253 cap, higher lows intact.
Hot US CPI repricing drove a steady London-NY climb from the Asian low near 1.4186. The NY swing low at 1.4234 held, and late-NY and rollover trade has capped at the 24h high of 1.4253. Early Asia is compressing around 1.4250, just above the ema20 (1.4248), with RSI 56 and ATR at 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.42478, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532, 1.4260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4253 24h high would end the stall and open the 1.4260 round number
Loss of the 1.4241 rollover low, near the 1.4241 ema50, would break the higher-low chain and expose the 1.4234 NY swing low
A break below the ny swing low at 1.4234 would complete a full retrace of the NY leg fib
Thu 13:30 UTC US Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate (Williams 23:30) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.42494
Higher lows since NY open; tight 1.4241–1.4253 band under the high.
USD/CAD carried the post-CPI USD bid through NY, with the NY swing running from 1.4231 to a 1.4253 window high just after rollover. Early Asia is compressing around the 1.4250 round number, holding above the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.42475, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4253 window high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4241 swing low opens the 50% fib of the NY swing near 1.4242 and the 1.4234 ny low
Repeated closes below the ema20 at 1.4248 would mark the consolidation turning into a pullback
US Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate from Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalled in a tight range · RSI 54 · price 1.42488
Higher lows from Asia through NY, now a flat 1.4240–1.4253 range.
The hot-CPI USD bid carried USDCAD from 1.4186 in Asia through the 1.4230 four-week high in London and NY. Since 15:30 UTC it has stalled in a 1.4240–1.4253 range, with the 1.42335 NY swing low aligned with the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg. Early Asia trade sits just above a flat ema20 at 1.42473, RSI(14) neutral at 53.5 and ATR(14) up to 5 pips from 3.6.
Support: 1.42473, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42532 range top resumes the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.42405 rollover low, also where ema50 sits, exposes the 1.42335 ny swing low and 38.2% fib
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
Tight 12-pip range 1.4241–1.4253 since NY afternoon; higher lows intact.
USDCAD carried the post-CPI USD bid through London. Price has since flattened into a 1.4241–1.4253 range across late NY and the rollover, with the range high capping twice. Early Asia trades mid-range just above the ema20 (1.4247), with RSI(14) at a neutral 53.5 and ATR(14) at 5 pips. Below, the ny low at 1.4234 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the London leg.
Support: 1.42471, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4253 range high breaks the overnight range
Close below the 1.4241 range low, with ema50 at 1.4240 just beneath, exposes the ny low at 1.4234 and the 38.2% London leg fib
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC Thursday could reset the range