USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling near the day high · RSI 50 · price 1.42456
Higher highs through London and NY, now a tight range below 1.4253.
USD/CAD climbed about 65 pips from the Asian low through London and NY on post-CPI USD strength. It cleared the 1.4230 four-week high and has since compressed into a 1.4240–1.4253 band under the day high. Early Asia finds price just below the ema20 at 1.42469 and above the ema50 at 1.42398, with RSI(14) flat at 49.7. The thin rollover dip to the 1.42405 rollover low was bought back within one bar.
Support: 1.42398, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42469, 1.42532
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.42532 day high resumes the higher-high sequence.
Failure to hold the ema50 and the rollover low near 1.4240 exposes the 1.42335 NY swing low and the 23.6% fib of the Asia-to-high move near 1.4237.
ATR has expanded to 4.9 pips from 3.6 into the rollover, so thin Asia liquidity can exaggerate wicks.
US jobless claims and a heavy Fed speaker slate from 13:30 UTC Thursday could reshape this range.
23:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near day high · RSI 54 · price 1.42505
Higher lows since Asia; tight late-NY range 1.4243–1.4253.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried London and NY well clear of the Asian range and above the 1.4230 four-week high. Late NY compressed into a 1.4243–1.4253 band, and rollover wicks to 1.42405 and the 1.42532 day high widened the bars. Early Asia trades just above the ema20 at 1.42471 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.4 and ATR(14) back up to 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.42471, 1.42425, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4253 day high breaks the late-NY range to the upside.
Loss of the 1.4243 range floor, also the 50% level on the NY leg fib, exposes the ema50 at 1.42395.
A break of the 1.4234 NY swing low ends the higher-low sequence from Asia.
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and a heavy Fed speaker slate Thursday could materially shift this read.
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 49 · price 1.42456
Tight consolidation 1.4243–1.4252 above London breakout, rising lows intact.
USD bid after the hot US CPI carried the pair from the 1.4186 Asian low through 1.4230 during London, then into a 1.4243–1.4252 shelf through NY hours. The rollover spike tagged a 1.42532 window high before slipping back under the ema20 at 1.42469, with the rollover low at 1.42405 and the ema50 at 1.42391 just below. RSI(14) is neutral at 48.8 and ATR(14) is up to 4.9 pips from 3.6 on the thin-liquidity swings.
Support: 1.42405, 1.42391, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42469, 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 and the 1.42532 window high extends the rising-lows sequence
Failure to hold the 1.42405 rollover low and the ema50 at 1.42391 breaks the consolidation floor, exposing the 1.42335 ny swing low
A break below the rising lows trendline from the 1.42305 NY low ends the intraday higher-low chain
Thursday's US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY low; tight post-NY range under session high.
USD strength on Fed-hike repricing carried the pair from an Asian range near 1.4186–1.4212 through 1.4230 in London. NY printed higher lows off the 1.4234 ny low, and price now sits on the ema20 at 1.4247 under the 1.4253 session high, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.7. The rollover swings to 1.4241 and 1.4253 came in thin liquidity.
Support: 1.42471, 1.42425, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4243 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows chain and exposes the 1.4234 ny low
Close above the 1.4253 session high extends the uptrend out of the consolidation
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC Thu and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR at 4.7 pips after rollover; thin Asia liquidity can distort wicks near the ema20
Higher highs and higher lows from the Asian low; NY low at 1.4234 intact.
The pair has climbed in higher highs and higher lows from the 1.4186 Asian low, carried well past the 1.4230 four-week high by USD strength after the hot CPI print and firmer Fed hike pricing. The NY spike rejection near 1.4246 was absorbed above the 1.4234 NY low. Just after rollover, price swung from a 1.4241 rollover low to a new session high at 1.4253, holding above the ema20 with RSI(14) at 60.3 and ATR widening to 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.4247, 1.42405, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42532, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4253 session high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number.
A close back below the ema20 at 1.4247 and the 1.4241 rollover low would stall the HH/HL chain; that zone is the 61.8% fib of the NY low-high leg.
Failure to hold the 1.4234 NY low breaks the intraday higher-low structure.
Thin rollover and early-Asia liquidity can distort wicks around the session high.
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate are the next USD catalysts for this read.
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back at rollover · RSI 43 · price 1.4242
Higher lows through London and NY; rollover gap broke below ema20.
USD/CAD built higher lows from the 1.4202 London-open dip to a 1.4252 day high late in the NY session, with hot-CPI Fed repricing keeping the dollar bid. The rollover gap knocked price below the ema20 to a 1.4241 rollover low, the 23.6% retrace of that leg. RSI(14) has cooled to 43, ATR is 4.1 pips, and the ema50 at 1.4238 sits just underneath.
Support: 1.42405, 1.4238, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42465, 1.42521
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4238 ema50 and the 1.4234 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 38.2% retrace near 1.4233
Recovery back above the 1.4247 ema20 and the 1.4252 day high restores the uptrend read
Thin rollover and early Asia session liquidity: gap-driven prints around the rollover low may not hold
Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from Asia through NY; tight drift under day high.
USD strength after the hot CPI print carried the pair out of the 1.4183–1.4212 Asian range through London. NY extended above 1.4230 to a day high of 1.4252 at 21:00 UTC, with the 13:15 spike low at 1.4231 reclaimed and higher lows printed since. The rollover opened with a ~5-pip gap to 1.4245, leaving price just under the ema20 (1.4247) and above the ema50 (1.4238). RSI(14) has eased to 52.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.42425, 1.42378, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.42521
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4243 swing low breaks the HL trendline and puts the ema50 at 1.4238 in play
Failure to hold the 1.4231 spike low unwinds the NY breakout above 1.4230
Reclaiming the ema20 and filling the rollover gap toward 1.4250 leaves the 1.4252 day high as the next test
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and a heavy Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the NY pullback, grinding to a fresh session high.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily from the Asian range, from about 1.4182 to above the 1.4230 four-week high, on the post-CPI dollar bid and Fed-hike repricing. After the NY pullback low at 1.42335, price built higher lows along the rising trendline and printed a session high at 1.42521 after the NY close. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips and RSI(14) sits at 62.8, so the late-session move is drifting rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.42466, 1.42425, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42521
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.42425 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the ema20 at 1.42466 would be the first sign the late-session grind is fading
Acceptance above the 1.42521 session high extends the uptrend; rejection there keeps the drift range-bound
Thursday's US jobless claims and the heavy Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Asia; late-NY drift at session high.
London cleared the Asian range top at 1.4212, and NY pushed through the 1.4230 four-week high on post-CPI Fed-hike repricing. After a sharp rejection to the 1.4234 ny low early in NY, rising lows carried price back to the 1.4252 session high. RSI(14) is easing from 66.9, ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips, and ema20 at 1.4246 sits just under price.
Support: 1.42463, 1.42425, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42521
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4252 session high extends the higher-high chain in thin post-NY trade
A break of the 1.4243 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.4234 ny low, with ema50 at 1.4236 just above it
Thursday's Fed-speak slate and Friday's US PPI are the next USD catalysts that could shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, marginal break of the afternoon range top.
Higher-high, higher-low climb from the Asian session low near 1.4186 through London and NY, as the dollar extended on the hot US CPI and CAD stayed heavy after the soft jobs data. After the NY close price reached a session high at 1.4252, just through the 1.4250 range top that capped the afternoon. RSI(14) is 66.9 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips; the rising ema20 at 1.4246 and rising support from the 1.4234 swing low sit beneath.
Support: 1.42498, 1.42458, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42521
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4250 range top marks the break as a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4246 puts the 1.4234 swing low and rising support in play
Break of the 1.4234 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
USD/CAD extended the post-CPI dollar bid to a fresh session high at 1.4252 after London close. That cleared the 1.4250 prior high from the early-NY spike, following a three-hour consolidation that held above the ema20 and a 1.4243 range low. Rising lows from the 1.4234 swing low keep the uptrend intact, but ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips and RSI at 65.4 is not stretched, so the break is coming on thin late-session liquidity.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42452, 1.42425
Resistance: 1.4252
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4250 prior high would turn the session high break into a false break
Loss of the 1.4243 range low and the rising lows trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4234 swing low
US jobless claims and Fed speakers from Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight late-NY range 1.4243–1.4250 under the session high.
USD/CAD extended the post-CPI dollar bid through Asia and London, clearing the 1.4230 four-week high. The pair spiked to a 1.4250 session high in the first hour of NY, then pulled back to a 1.4234 NY low. It has since carved rising lows back up to that high, with price holding above the ema20 at 1.4245 and the 1.4243 swing low. ATR(14) has compressed from 6 to 4 pips and RSI(14) sits near 63, so the late-NY drift into the session high is a low-volatility one.
Support: 1.42446, 1.42425, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the late-NY range to the upside
Loss of the 1.4243 swing low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 1.4234 NY low
Asia session open with thin liquidity; Thursday's US claims and Fed-speak slate are the next scheduled USD risk
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under session high · RSI 60 · price 1.42467
HH/HL climb from the Asian range, now a tight late-NY box below 1.4250.
Higher-high/higher-low climb out of the 1.4186–1.4212 Asian range through London and NY. Post-CPI USD demand carried it past the 1.4230 four-week high to a 1.42498 session high, which was retested at 1.42492. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4243–1.4250 box above a rising ema20, with ATR(14) contracting from 6.2 to 4 pips and RSI(14) steady near 60; the 1.42335 swing low held near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg.
Support: 1.42425, 1.42335, 1.4230
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the HH chain
Close below the 1.42425 range low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.42335 swing low near ema50
Loss of 1.42335 turns the twin highs at 1.4249–1.4250 into a lower-high sequence, with the 1.4230 four-week high next
ATR at 4 pips into the Asia session points to a thin range unless the session high or range low gives
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Asia; late-NY tight range under 1.4250.
USDCAD climbed steadily from the Asian low at 1.4186 through the 1.4230 four-week high as the hot US CPI kept Fed-hike repricing in play, then capped twice at the 1.4250 session high during NY hours. Late in the NY session it is holding a ~6-pip band just above the ema20, with ATR compressing to 4.1 pips and RSI(14) at 59.7.
Support: 1.42439, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the day's higher-high chain
Break below the ema20 at 1.4244 exposes the 1.4233 swing low, where the ema50 sits
Loss of the 1.4233 swing low ends the intraday higher-low sequence and points to a deeper day rally fib retracement
Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp are the next scheduled USD catalysts
Higher lows since NY open, late-NY compression under 1.4250.
The pair has ground higher since Asia on the broad post-CPI USD bid. London cleared the Asian range high, and NY printed a session high at 1.4250 before stalling. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4243–1.4249 band above the ema20, with ATR(14) easing to 4.3 pips and the NY rising lows intact from the 1.4231 ny low.
Support: 1.42436, 1.42425, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high extends the higher-high chain
Break below the 1.4243 swing low and ema20 exposes the 1.4231 ny low
Loss of the NY rising lows line ends the intraday uptrend read
Thin liquidity after NY close into Asia; Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next USD catalysts
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under session high · RSI 59 · price 1.42448
Higher lows intact, tight 1.4243–1.4250 consolidation late NY.
Post-CPI USD demand and soft CAD carried the pair out of the 1.4186–1.4212 Asian range, through the 1.4230 4-week high, to a 1.4250 session high in early NY. The late-NY pullback held the 1.42335 swing low and the rising trendline, and price is now pinned just above the ema20, 2 pips below its value, with ATR compressing from 6.2 to 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.42431, 1.42335, 1.4230
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high extends the higher-high chain
Break below the 1.42335 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low structure, exposing the 1.4230 4-week high
US-Iran oil headlines during the quiet Asia handover could jolt CAD
Thursday's US jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp are the next scheduled USD risk
Higher lows below a flat 1.4250 session high, late-NY compression.
The CPI-driven USD bid carried the London leg from 1.4202 through the 1.4230 four-week high, but the 1.4250 session high has capped price twice (13:30 and 16:15 UTC). Since the London close price has compressed in a 5-pip band above the ema20, holding a range low near 1.4244. RSI(14) has cooled from 73 to 57.7 and ATR(14) has contracted to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42436, 1.42335, 1.42317
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the London leg's higher-high sequence
Close below the 1.4244 range low exposes the 1.4234 swing low
Loss of the 1.4234 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the ema50 / 38.2% retrace of the London leg near 1.4232 in play
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next scheduled catalyst; no events in the next 8h
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under session high · RSI 61 · price 1.42463
HH/HL chain since Asia, now a tight range below 1.4250.
USD/CAD carried the CPI and Fed-repricing bid from the Asian range (1.4186–1.4212) through London and NY, clearing the 1.4230 four-week high. The 1.4250 session high has capped twice since the NY morning. Late in NY, price is coiling in a 5-pip box between the range low and the session high, above the ema20, with ATR(14) compressed to 4.5 pips, RSI(14) at 60.8 and the rising support line now being tested.
Support: 1.42436, 1.42335, 1.42312
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the HH sequence
Loss of the 1.4244 range low and the rising support line shifts the read to a deeper pullback
Break of the 1.4234 swing low and the ema50 near 1.4231 ends the intraday HL chain
Thursday's US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact, tight range under session high.
USD/CAD broke above the 1.4182–1.4212 Asian range in London as hot-CPI Fed repricing kept CAD heavy. It then capped twice at the 1.4250 session high during NY hours, with the second test on a lower RSI(14) high (65.6 vs 73). Late NY is compressing in a 5-pip band above the 1.4244 swing low and ema20, and ATR(14) has eased to 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.42436, 1.42422, 1.42335
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the double cap and extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4244 swing low and ema20 also breaks rising support and exposes the 1.4233 ny low
A break below the 1.4233 ny low would end the intraday HH/HL sequence
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
The post-CPI dollar bid carried USDCAD from the Asian range through London and NY. Price cleared the 1.4230 4-week high and stalled twice at the 1.4250 session high. Late NY is compressing just above the ema20 at 1.4242, with higher lows off the swing low at 1.4234 still intact, RSI(14) at 61.7 and ATR easing to 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.42418, 1.42335, 1.4230
Resistance: 1.42498, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the higher-high chain, with the 1.4300 round number the next reference
Break of the ema20 and the 1.4234 swing low snaps the higher lows line and exposes a retest of the 1.4230 4-week high
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers incl. Williams (23:30 UTC) are the next USD catalysts for this read
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 62 · price 1.42477
Higher lows since Asia; NY capped at the 1.4250 session high.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily since the Asia session on hot-CPI Fed-hike repricing and a weak CAD. London took it through the 1.4230 four-week high, and NY has held a 1.4234–1.4250 range since. The second test of the 1.4250 session high came with RSI(14) at 61.5, against 73 on the first test, while ATR has compressed from 6.2 to 5 pips into late NY.
Support: 1.42413, 1.42335, 1.42292
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Break of the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.4241 shifts focus to the 1.4234 swing low
Loss of the 1.4234 swing low and ema50 at 1.4229 breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia; late-NY range 1.4234–1.4250.
Steady HH/HL grind from the 1.4182 Asian low through London, with the hot-CPI USD bid carrying the pair through the 1.4230 four-week high and NY tagging a 1.4250 session high (RSI(14) hit 86 on the first spike). Since then the pair has held a 1.4234–1.4250 range: the NY low held and the session high capped twice. Price sits above ema20 and ema50, with ATR easing from 6.2 to 5.1 pips after London close.
Support: 1.42407, 1.42335, 1.42285
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the late-NY range and extends the HH chain
Loss of the 1.4234 ny low and the rising support line would print a lower low, with ema50 at 1.4229 and the 38.2% of the London-NY leg next
Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers (Williams, Daly) are the next USD catalyst; late-NY trade is otherwise thin
HH/HL chain from Asia; second test of 1.4250 session high.
USD/CAD extended the hot-CPI dollar bid out of the Asian range through London and NY, and is now retesting the 1.4250 session high. RSI(14) printed 61.5 on the retest versus 73 at the first touch, a bearish divergence, while ATR eases to 5.2 pips. Price holds above the ema20 at 1.4240, the ema50 at 1.4228 and the rising trendline, with the 1.4234 swing low as the higher low in play.
Support: 1.42402, 1.42335, 1.42278
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resumes the HH chain
Break of the 1.4234 swing low and rising trendline turns the twin highs into a double top, exposing the ema50 at 1.4228
Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; NY session range 1.4234–1.4250.
USD/CAD extended through the 1.4230 prior high on the hot US CPI and the 50bp Fed repricing, spiking to 1.4246 just before NY open as RSI(14) hit 86. NY has since held a 1.4234–1.4250 range, with the session high capping twice. Price holds above the ema20 at 1.4239 and the rising trendline from the London open low, and RSI has cooled to 62.
Support: 1.42394, 1.42335, 1.4231
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the NY range higher
Loss of the 1.4234 ny low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain from London open
A move back below the 1.4230 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under 1.4250 · RSI 62 · price 1.42458
Higher lows into a flat session high at 1.4250.
Hot US CPI kept USD/CAD bid through Asia and London, clearing the 1.4230 four-week high and leaving the 1.4212 asian high well below. NY has met rejection at the 1.4250 session high twice while higher lows at 1.4231, 1.4234 and 1.4236 build beneath it. RSI(14) has cooled from 86 to 61.5 on the retest, price holds above the ema20 at 1.4239 and ATR is easing to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.42387, 1.42335, 1.42124
Resistance: 1.42498, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high breaks the flat top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Close below the ema20 at 1.4239 shifts the compression toward the rising lows
Break of the 1.4234 higher low undercuts the rising lows and exposes the 1.4212 asian high
Thursday's claims and Fed slate (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read; nothing scheduled in the next 8h
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 1.42484
Higher lows since NY open, retest of 1.4250 session high.
The CPI-driven dollar bid and soft crude carried USDCAD up the rally line through Asia and London, clearing the 1.4230 four-week high. NY opened with a spike rejection from 1.4246, then printed the 1.4250 session high. Since then the 1.4234 swing low has held as a higher low above the ny low at 1.4231. Price is back at the session high late in NY with RSI(14) at 65.6 against 73 at the prior high, a bearish divergence, and ema20 at 1.4238 rising beneath.
Support: 1.4238, 1.42335, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high voids the RSI divergence and extends the HH chain
Loss of the 1.4234 swing low and the 1.4231 ny low ends the higher-low sequence on the rally line
Fib 38.2% of the Asia-NY rally near 1.4225 sits at the old 1.4230 four-week high, the deeper pullback reference
Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate could reprice USD and shift this read
Higher-low chain from Asia, tight consolidation under the session high.
A steady climb from the Asian range lows near 1.4182 ran through London and into NY on the post-CPI dollar bid. It printed a session high at 1.4250 at 14:30 UTC with RSI(14) at 73, against 86 on the 13:15 UTC spike high at 1.4246, a bearish divergence. Price has since consolidated in 1.4234–1.4250, holding above the ema20, with the NY low at 1.4234 resting on the rising trendline as ATR eases to 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.42369, 1.42335, 1.42245
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high resolves the divergence and extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4234 NY low and the rising trendline breaks the intraday higher-low sequence, exposing the ema50 near 1.4225
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate after it could materially shift this read
USD strength after Tuesday's hot CPI carried USDCAD up through Asia and London. NY then printed a session high at 1.42498, above the 1.42463 spike high, while RSI(14) peaked at 73 against 86 on the earlier spike, a bearish divergence. The pullback held a swing low at 1.42335, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib, and price is now holding just above the ema20.
Support: 1.42363, 1.42335, 1.42238
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42498
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.42498 session high extends the higher-high chain
Close below the 1.42335 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the ema50 at 1.42238
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak could shift the USD leg
USD/CAD extended the post-CPI dollar bid from the Asian low near 1.4186 through the 1.4230 prior high to a 1.4250 session high early in NY, with the 1.4230 area since holding as a retest. RSI(14) printed a bearish divergence (86 at the 1.4246 spike high vs 73 at the session high), and price is now compressing in lower highs above the 1.4233 swing low and the ema20 at 1.4236, as ATR expands to 6.1 pips.
Support: 1.42356, 1.42335, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4233 swing low and ema20 exposes the ema50 at 1.4223, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY leg
Close above the 1.4250 session high and the 1.4246 spike high negates the divergence and the lower-highs line
No USD/CAD data in the next 8h; Thu US jobless claims (f/c 195K) is the next catalyst
HH/HL climb from overnight low, now lower highs under 1.4250 session high.
USDCAD carried the post-CPI dollar bid in a steady HH/HL climb from the 1.4179 overnight low. The rally ran into rejection at the 1.4250 session high in early NY, and RSI(14) has cooled from 86 to 56 while ATR widened to 6 pips. Price is holding just above the ema20 at 1.4235, with lower highs capping under 1.4243 and the 1.4233 swing low below.
Support: 1.42351, 1.42335, 1.42305
Resistance: 1.42427, 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4233 swing low and the 1.4230 spike low breaks the intraday higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 at 1.4222, near the 50% fib of the London leg.
M15 close above the 1.4243 lower high voids the lower-highs read. Acceptance over the 1.4250 session high resumes the trend.
No scheduled data in the next few hours. US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate are the next catalysts.
HH/HL chain from Asia; rising trendline cracked on NY pullback.
USD/CAD carried the CPI-driven USD bid through the 1.4230 four-week high into a 1.4250 NY session high. That push printed RSI(14) 73 against 86 on the 13:15 UTC spike high, a bearish divergence, and the pullback has closed below the rising trendline from London while the 1.4234 swing low, at ema20, still holds.
Support: 1.42335, 1.42305, 1.42209
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes ema50 at 1.4221, near the 38.2% of the Asia-NY rally (1.4224).
Close above the 1.4250 session high, clearing the 1.4246 spike high, resumes the HH sequence despite the divergence.
ATR(14) has expanded from 3.9 to 6.2 pips since NY open; wider swings around the swing low make false breaks more likely.
London-led HH/HL chain off the Asian range; pullback from the 1.4250 session high.
USD/CAD pushed out of the 1.4182–1.4212 Asian range through London and above the 1.4230 four-week high on the post-CPI USD bid, with no top-tier data today. The NY session high at 1.4250 printed with RSI(14) at 73, below the 86 reading at the 1.4246 spike high (a bearish divergence). Since then three lower highs have pulled price back to the ema20 at 1.4234, and the London trendline has given way.
Support: 1.42339, 1.42305, 1.42202
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42498
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny open low at 1.4230 (also the 38.2% of the London leg) would break the HL chain and expose the ema50 at 1.4220
Reclaiming the 1.4246 spike high and closing above the 1.4250 session high would cancel the divergence and rejection read
ATR(14) has expanded from 3.9 to 6.2 pips through NY hours, so swings are widening into the London close
No scheduled US or Canadian data in the next 8h; Thursday's claims and Fed speakers are the next USD catalysts
Higher-low chain since Asia, pulling back off NY session high.
USD/CAD has stacked higher lows from the Asian low near 1.4186 through London, extending the post-CPI USD bid to a 1.4250 session high in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) peaked at 86 on the 13:15 spike but only 73 on the 14:30 high, a bearish divergence. Price is now back on the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.4234, with the 38.2% of the London leg at 1.4232 just below.
Support: 1.42337, 1.42305, 1.42196
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.42498
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.42305 ny open low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes ema50 at 1.4220
M15 close above the 1.4250 session high clears the 1.4246 prior cap and voids the divergence read
Sustained closes below the rising trendline would confirm the bearish RSI divergence
ATR up to 6.1 pips from 3.9: wider swings in NY hours
Higher-low chain from London open, above the Asian range and the 1.4230 four-week high.
The post-CPI USD bid carried USD/CAD up from the 1.4186–1.4212 Asian range in a steady London leg along a rising trendline, clearing the 1.4230 four-week high. The NY-open spike to 1.4246 was rejected to a 1.4230 swing low near ema20 (1.4232). Price then reclaimed it, posting a higher low at 1.4239 and a fresh session high at 1.4250. RSI(14) at 73 is well below its 86 reading at the NY spike despite the higher price, a bearish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.42391, 1.42305, 1.42178
Resistance: 1.42497
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4230 swing low and ema20 breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.4239 higher low would leave the session high as a failed retest of the NY spike
Acceptance above the 1.4250 session high with RSI back above its prior peak would neutralise the divergence
A deeper slide toward ema50 at 1.4218 retraces about half the London leg
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims and dense Fedspeak are the next catalysts
Higher lows along London trendline, new session high.
USD/CAD extended its post-CPI bid from the Asian range through London, clearing the 1.4230 four-week high. In the first hour of NY it set a session high at 1.4249, just above the 1.4246 prior high, after an early-NY flush to 1.4231 held at the ema20 and the rising trendline. RSI at 69.9 is well off its 86 peak on the retest of highs, and ATR has widened to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.4246, 1.42304, 1.42165
Resistance: 1.42487, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline near 1.4234 and the ema20 at 1.4230 would mark the first lower low since London open; ema50 at 1.4217 sits below that
Acceptance above the 1.4249 session high and 1.4250 round number extends the four-week highs. Repeated rejection there with RSI unable to regain its prior peak points to a stall
Slip back under the 1.4246 prior high turns the latest push into a false break
No scheduled US/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD swing factor ahead of Thursday's claims and Fedspeak
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, NY spike rejected at highs · RSI 67 · price 1.42412
HH/HL chain through London; early NY double rejection at 1.4246.
USDCAD stacked higher highs through London on the post-CPI USD bid. It cleared the Asian high at 1.4212 and the 1.4230 four-week high before early NY spiked to a 1.4246 session high, which was rejected twice. The pullback held at the 1.4231 spike low just above ema20 (1.4229), with RSI(14) cooled from 86 to 67 and ATR expanding to 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.4231, 1.42289, 1.4212
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4246 session high clears the double rejection and brings the 1.4250 round number into play
Close below the 1.4231 spike low and ema20 at 1.4229 breaks the London trendline
A deeper slide toward the 61.8% London leg fib near 1.4219 and the Asian high at 1.4212 would unwind the London breakout
No USD/CAD data in the next 8h; Thursday's claims and Fedspeak are the next catalyst for USD
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 67 · price 1.42424
Higher-low chain through London; spike rejection then NY retest of the high.
The post-CPI USD bid carried through London. Price cleared the 1.4182–1.4207 Asian range and yesterday's 1.4210 prior high, then stepped up in higher lows to a 1.4246 session high. A sharp rejection there found demand at the 1.4230 spike low, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib and just above the ema20. RSI(14) reset from 86 to 67 and the NY session is retesting the high, with ATR(14) expanding to 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.42305, 1.42278, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4246 session high would resume the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4250 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4230 spike low and the ema20 at 1.4228 would break the London higher-low chain and expose the 1.4210 prior high
A second stall at 1.4246 with RSI below its 86 peak would mark a lower-momentum retest of the high
Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak (Hammack, Williams, Daly) are the next scheduled USD risk
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after a failed spike · RSI 61 · price 1.42336
HH/HL chain from the Asian lows; 13:15 UTC spike rejected.
Post-CPI USD demand and softer oil carried USDCAD from the 1.4186 Asian lows to new highs through London. The climb ended in a 13:15 UTC spike to 1.4246 that was rejected back below the 1.4236 prior high, and RSI(14) unwound from 86 to 61. Price is now resting on the 1.4230 spike low and the rising support from the 07:15 UTC low, with ATR expanding to 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.42305, 1.42265, 1.42147
Resistance: 1.42363, 1.42463
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 spike low and rising support breaks the London HL chain, with the ema20 at 1.4227 next
Recovery and close back above the 1.4236 prior high reopens the 1.4246 spike high
Failure at the 1.4215 swing low, inside the 50–61.8% fib zone of the London leg (1.4224–1.4219), confirms a deeper correction
Thursday US jobless claims and Fedspeak on 50bp odds could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 86 · price 1.42455
HH/HL chain since London low; NY open broke the London high.
A steady HH/HL chain from the 1.4202 London low carried price through the Asian range and the prior 1.4210 high. The first hour of NY then cleared the 1.4235 London high in a 10-pip bar, about twice ATR(14), to a 1.4246 session high above the digest's 1.4230 four-week high, on hot-CPI USD demand and softer oil. RSI(14) at 86 is extreme and has climbed from 61 over the last 20 bars, with price well above the rising ema20 and ema50.
Support: 1.42347, 1.42258, 1.42126
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4235 London high would mark the NY break as a false break.
Loss of rising support from the London low (near 1.4230 now) and the ema20 at 1.4226 ends the HH/HL chain. The London leg fib 50% sits at 1.4224.
RSI(14) at 86 is stretched. A stall below the 1.4250 round number leaves the session high exposed to rejection, with the ema50 at 1.4213 the deeper pivot.
No US or CAD data in the next 8h. WTI swings on US-Iran headlines are the main outside driver until Thursday's Fedspeak.
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into NY open · RSI 81 · price 1.42371
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows through London, Asian range broken.
USDCAD broke above the 1.4207 Asian range high early in the session, taking out the post-CPI high near 1.4210. It has since stepped up in a clean higher-high, higher-low chain along the London trendline to a 1.4237 session high at the London-NY transition, with the hot US CPI and soft crude still weighing on CAD. RSI(14) at 80.8 is at an extreme while ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips, so the push is narrowing rather than expanding, with price above the ema20 at 1.4224.
Support: 1.42286, 1.42237, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42371, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4229 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the ema20 at 1.4224 in play.
A move back under the London trendline, then the 1.4202 London low, would unwind the Asian range breakout.
RSI above 80 with shrinking ATR shows stretched momentum; a rejection at the session high would mark a stall in the uptrend.
Acceptance above the session high opens the 1.4250 round number, near the 1.0 extension of the london leg fib.
No USD or CAD data is scheduled in the next 8h, so Fed headlines and crude moves are the likely triggers; Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are next.
Higher-low chain from Asia; London broke above the Asian range.
USD/CAD keeps extending the post-CPI leg. London broke above the Asian range near 1.4207 and has printed steady higher lows into a 1.4235 session high at the NY open. RSI(14) at 78.4 is overbought and ATR has eased to 3.9 pips, so the grind is slowing, but price holds above the ema20 at 1.4222. The ema50 at 1.4210 sits on Tuesday's post-CPI high.
Support: 1.42224, 1.42147, 1.42102
Resistance: 1.42347, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4215 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
Rejection at the 1.4235 session high with RSI rolling off 78 marks a stall in the NY session
Close above 1.4235 opens the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4210 would put the full post-CPI leg into retracement
No high-impact US data today; Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next scheduled risk
USD/CAD has built a steady higher-low chain from the 1.4186 Asian low. The climb carries the post-CPI dollar bid, with no oil support for CAD. London cleared yesterday's 1.4210 CPI prior high and set a session high at 1.4233. RSI(14) at 78.1 is hot but below 80, and ATR(14) has eased to 3.9 pips ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.42213, 1.42147, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.42331, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the London higher-low trendline and the 1.4221 ema20 breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.4215 swing low opens a retest of the 1.4210 prior high, near the 50% of the Asian low fib
A stall at the 1.4233 session high with RSI rolling over from 78 would mark a rejection; a close above opens the path to the 1.4250 round number
Crude headlines on US-Iran diplomacy during NY hours could shift CAD, with no high-impact US data today
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late London · RSI 78 · price 1.42329
Higher lows since London open, fresh session high.
USD/CAD broke above the Asian range and Tuesday's post-CPI prior high at 1.4210, then built higher lows through London to a 1.4233 session high, as the hot US CPI and softer oil kept USD bid. RSI(14) at 77.5 is overbought but ATR of 4.1 pips shows a steady grind, not a spike, and price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.4220.
Support: 1.42201, 1.42147, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.42331, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4215 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and the trendline
Rejection at the 1.4233 session high with RSI rolling off 77.5 would mark a stall; a close above opens the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the 1.4210 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
NY open and WTI moves on US-Iran headlines could shift the read; no scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into late London · RSI 76 · price 1.42312
HH/HL chain through London, above Tuesday's post-CPI high.
USD/CAD cleared the Asian range top and then Tuesday's post-CPI high at 1.4210 early in London. It has since stepped up in higher highs and higher lows to a session high at 1.4232, as the hot US CPI bid and softer oil keep CAD heavy. RSI(14) at 76 is overbought and ATR is compressed at 4.2 pips heading into NY. The ema20 at 1.4219 and the 1.4215 swing low define the London-leg rising trendline.
Support: 1.42188, 1.42147, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4215 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Rejection at the 1.4232 session high with RSI rolling over from 78 would mark a stall; a hold above opens the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the 1.4210 cpi high, the 50% of the London leg, turns the breakout into a false break
No high-impact US or Canadian data today, so NY hours trade off yields and US-Iran oil headlines
12:08 UTC
Uptrend, extending through late London · RSI 78 · price 1.42311
HH/HL chain above the Asian range and the post-CPI high.
London built on the Asia break above 1.4200 and cleared the 1.4210 cpi high from Tuesday's US CPI spike. Price printed a fresh session high at 1.4232 as hot US inflation and softer oil keep the loonie heavy. RSI(14) at 78.4 is stretched but still below 80, and the higher-low chain holds above the London trendline and the ema20 at 1.4218.
Support: 1.42176, 1.42147, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4215 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.4210 cpi high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 1.4232 session high with RSI rolling over from 78 would flag exhaustion into the NY open
Break of the London trendline exposes the ema20; the 1.4250 round number is the next overhead reference
11:45 UTC
Uptrend, steady grind through London · RSI 74 · price 1.42258
Higher-high/higher-low chain from the 1.4202 London-open low, above the Asian range.
London extended the post-CPI USD bid. Price grinds higher in a higher-low chain off the 1.4202 London-open low, clearing the Asian high at 1.4212 and printing a session high at 1.4226 late in the session. RSI(14) at 73.8 is hot but not extreme, and ATR(14) is compressed at 4.1 pips ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.42162, 1.42147, 1.42124
Resistance: 1.42259, 1.4230
What it said to watch
An M15 close below ema20 (1.4216) and the 1.4215 swing low breaks the London higher-low sequence and the rising support line
Failure to hold the 1.4212 Asian high puts price back inside the overnight range, toward the 1.4202 London-open low
Rejection at the 1.4226 session high or the 1.4230 round number into NY open would mark a stall; RSI above 80 would flag stretch
No high-impact data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD risk
USD/CAD is extending the hot-CPI rally, with softer oil adding to loonie weakness. London cleared the 1.4212 Asian high and has stepped up through higher lows at 1.4202, 1.4211 and 1.4215 to a 1.4223 session high. RSI(14) sits at 70 while ATR(14) has eased to 4.1 pips, so the grind higher is continuing on smaller bars.
Support: 1.42147, 1.42124, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42234, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4215 higher low breaks the London chain and the trendline
A return under the 1.4212 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break, with the ema50 at 1.4205 next
Session high at 1.4223 is the area to watch for rejection or extension toward the 1.4250 round number
No high-impact data today; WTI swings on US-Iran headlines are the main intraday CAD driver
London broke the Asian high at 1.4212 and yesterday's post-CPI peak near 1.4210, printing a session high at 1.4223 on a steady higher-low chain. The move extends the hot US CPI and soft-crude pressure on CAD; RSI(14) is 68.3, short of overbought, and ATR(14) is easing to 4.2 pips as gains slow into mid-London.
Support: 1.42144, 1.42124, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42231, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the London higher-low trendline and ema20 near 1.4214 breaks the HL chain
Slip back under the 1.4212 Asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.4223 session high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the 1.4202 London low, near ema50, unwinds the London breakout
WTI swings on US-Iran headlines could shift CAD intraday; no high-impact data due today
Higher lows through London, Asian range high broken.
Hot US CPI and softer crude keep USD/CAD bid. London broke the Asian range high at 1.4212 and set a 1.4221 session high, with higher lows stacking along a rising trendline above the ema20 at 1.4213. RSI(14) at 66 has printed lower peaks under 72 while price pushed higher, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 1.42147, 1.42131, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.42212, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4221 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4250 round number
Loss of the 1.4215 higher low and the rising trendline would mark a stall, with the 1.4210 cpi high the next shelf
No tier-1 US or Canada data today, so WTI swings on US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver into NY hours
HH/HL chain through Asia and London, Asian range high broken.
USDCAD has stepped higher through Asia and into mid-London. London cleared the 1.4212 Asian high and printed a session high at 1.4221, with hot US CPI and softer crude keeping CAD heavy. Price holds above the ema20 (1.4213), a rising trendline off the 1.4202 London low is intact, RSI(14) 65 keeps stalling near 70 on each push and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42147, 1.42124, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42212, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4215 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the London higher-low chain
Losing the asian high / ema20 zone near 1.4212 reopens the 1.4202 london low
A sustained break of the 1.4221 session high exposes the 1.4250 round number
There is no US or Canada data today, so WTI moves on US-Iran headlines are the main CAD driver into the NY session
10:15 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 65 · price 1.42187
HH/HL chain above broken Asian range.
The post-CPI USD bid and soft crude carried into London. Price broke the Asian high at 1.4212 and printed a 1.4221 session high, with the higher-low chain intact from the 1.4202 London low to the latest higher low at 1.4215; ema20 at 1.4212 sits on the old Asian high. RSI(14) peaks slipped from 71.9 to 70 on each new high, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR expanded to 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.42147, 1.42124, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42212, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4212 (Asian high / ema20) breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4202 London low turns session structure neutral
Close above the 1.4221 session high opens the 1.4250 round number
No US data today. WTI swings on US-Iran headlines are the main CAD driver into the NY open
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, RSI peaks easing · RSI 69 · price 1.42191
London broke above the Asian range high; higher lows intact.
The hot US CPI leg from 1.4131 to 1.4210 held through Asia. Mid-London has now pushed through the Asian range top at 1.4212 to a session high at 1.4221, with higher lows at 1.4202 and 1.4211. RSI(14) peaks are slipping (71.9, 71.6, 70.0) while price prints higher highs, and ATR is expanding to 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42112, 1.42021, 1.41856
Resistance: 1.42212, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema20 at 1.4211 puts the Asian range breakout in question
Break of the london low at 1.4202 ends the higher-low chain and the rising trendline from the asian low
Failure to clear the session high at 1.4221 with RSI peaks falling would mark a stall below the 1.4250 round number
No high-impact US or CAD data today. Crude moves on US-Iran headlines could shift the CAD leg, and Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are next.
Higher-high/higher-low chain from Asia into London; price at session high.
USDCAD cleared yesterday's post-CPI high near 1.4210 during the London session and printed a session high at 1.4221. Hot US CPI and softer crude keep CAD heavy, and the rising lows at 1.4197, 1.4202 and 1.4211 keep price above both EMAs. RSI(14) at 70 is sitting slightly below its earlier 71.9 and 71.6 peaks, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR(14) has widened to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42107, 1.42021, 1.41996
Resistance: 1.42211, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4211 swing low breaks the rising lows chain
Failure to hold the 1.4202 london low exposes the ema50 near 1.4200
Sustained trade above the 1.4221 session high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
No high-impact US or Canada data today; crude headlines remain the swing factor for CAD
USD/CAD extended the hot-US-CPI leg. London cleared Tuesday's 1.4210 cpi high and set a session high at 1.42188, with higher lows at 1.4202 and 1.4211 holding above the ema20 and ema50. RSI(14) peaks are flattening near 72 as price prints new highs, while ATR has expanded to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42107, 1.42099, 1.41987
Resistance: 1.42188, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4211 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.4210 cpi high up for a retest
Loss of the 1.4199 ema50, near the 50% post-CPI fib, would turn the move into a deeper intraday pullback
A clean break of the 1.42188 session high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
No high-impact data today; Thursday Fedspeak and Friday's US PPI are the next scheduled drivers
Higher-high/higher-low chain since the post-CPI pullback.
After the hot US CPI, USD/CAD cleared the post-CPI high at 1.4210 late in Asia and set a London session high at 1.42188, with a higher low at 1.42107 holding above the rising ema20. RSI(14) peaks are flat to slightly lower across the last three highs (72.5, 71.9, 71.6), a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 4.3 pips since the London open.
Support: 1.42107, 1.42084, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42188, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42188 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4250 round number
A break of the 1.42107 higher low and the ema20 at 1.42084 tests the rising trendline near 1.4207
Loss of the 1.42021 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
No high-impact US or Canada data today; Thursday's US jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled risk
08:45 UTC
Uptrend, breakout under retest · RSI 61 · price 1.42111
Higher lows since Asia; London broke Asian range high, now back at breakout level.
The hot US CPI print kicked off Tuesday's leg up. Early London cleared the 1.4210–1.4212 breakout level, where the Asian range high sits on top of the post-CPI high, and set a session high at 1.4219 before pulling back to retest it, with RSI(14) cooling to 61 from 71.6. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.4207, and ATR(14) has edged up to 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4207, 1.4202
Resistance: 1.42188, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4202 london low would turn the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
Hold of the 1.4211 breakout lvl and a close above the 1.4219 session high extends the higher-low sequence toward the 1.4250 round number
Break of the Asia higher-low trendline (~1.4206) undercuts the rising structure
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next event risk
08:30 UTC
Uptrend, RSI peaks flattening · RSI 72 · price 1.42161
Higher lows since Asia; London extended above CPI high.
The post-CPI USD bid carried through Asia, which broke the Tuesday CPI high at 1.42099. Early London dipped to 1.42021, the London low, held the rising trendline and set a London high at 1.42188, with price above the ema20 at 1.42065. RSI(14) at 71.6 is printing slightly lower peaks against higher highs, a mild divergence. ATR is edging up to 4.1 pips.
Support: 1.42099, 1.42065, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42188, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the London low at 1.42021 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
A close back below the cpi high at 1.42099 turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the London high at 1.42188 opens the 1.4250 round number
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h. US jobless claims and Fedspeak on Thu are the next event risk
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London · RSI 71 · price 1.4218
Higher highs and higher lows since Asia; post-CPI high cleared.
Early London has cleared Tuesday's 1.4210 CPI high, the top of the hot-CPI USD leg, and set a new session high at 1.4218 as soft Canadian jobs data keeps CAD heavy. Asia-to-London higher lows at 1.4197 and the 1.4202 swing low hold, with price above the ema20 at 1.42054. RSI(14) at 70.7 is only mildly hot and ATR is 4.1 pips.
Support: 1.4210, 1.42054, 1.4202
Resistance: 1.4218, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4210 cpi high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4202 swing low and the higher-lows trendline ends the intraday HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4218 session high opens the 1.4250 round number
Thu US jobless claims and Fedspeak (Williams, Daly, Hammack) on 50bp Fed odds are the next USD catalysts
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, London pushing new highs · RSI 68 · price 1.42143
Higher lows through Asia, breakout above prior high.
The hot US CPI drove a 70-pip leg to the 1.4210 prior high in Tuesday's NY session. Asia then printed higher lows off 1.4186, and the London open is pushing through that high to a 1.4214 session high. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.4204, with RSI(14) at 67.7, warm but short of overbought, and ATR(14) steady near 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.42099, 1.42042, 1.42021
Resistance: 1.42143, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4210 prior high would mark a false break
Loss of the 1.4202 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
Round number 1.4250 is the next reference if London extends past the session high
RSI pushing above 72 again near highs, as it did twice in Asia before pullbacks
Higher-high/higher-low chain since 1.4179; prior NY high broken in Asia.
The hot US CPI leg extended through Asia, with price taking out the prior high at 1.4210 to a session high of 1.4212. London's first hour dipped to 1.4202 (london low), just under ema20 at 1.4203, and recovered. Higher lows since 1.4179 hold along the rising trendline, and the 38.2% level of the swing fib sits near 1.4200. RSI(14) is 65.8 after a marginally lower peak at the new high, and ATR is a compressed 3.9 pips.
Support: 1.42099, 1.42021, 1.41969
Resistance: 1.42124, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the prior high at 1.4210 turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the london low at 1.4202 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, with the swing low at 1.4197 next
A clean push through the session high at 1.4212 opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
No scheduled US/CAD data in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD catalysts
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, early London pullback · RSI 61 · price 1.4209
Higher-low chain from the Asia low; testing the 1.4210–1.4212 highs.
USD/CAD extended the hot-CPI advance through Asia. It printed a session high at 1.4212, just above Tuesday's CPI high at 1.4210, before the London open pulled it back to a higher low at 1.4202, close to ema20. The higher-lows chain from the 1.4182 Asian low is intact, RSI(14) has cooled to 60.9 from 71.9 and ATR(14) is compressed at 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.42021, 1.41969, 1.41928
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.42124
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4212 session high clears the CPI high and extends the higher-high chain.
A loss of the 1.4202 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline. The next swing low, 1.4197, sits at the 50% retrace of the Asia leg fib.
A break below ema50 at 1.4193 would neutralise the uptrend read inside the Asian range.
No USD or CAD data is scheduled in the next 8h. Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD risk.
The post-CPI USD bid carried through Asia, with a higher-low chain from 1.4179. Price edged past the 1.4210 post-CPI high to a 1.4212 session high, then slipped back toward the ema20 at 1.4202. RSI(14) eased to 59 after a slightly lower peak on that higher high, and ATR(14) is compressed at 3.8 pips heading into London open.
Support: 1.4202, 1.41969, 1.41922
Resistance: 1.42124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41969 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 at 1.4192
Sustained trade above the 1.42124 session high would negate the mild RSI divergence
A break of the higher-low trendline during the London session would shift the read toward range
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main intraday swing factors
Higher-low chain through Asia; marginal new session high above Tuesday high.
The post-CPI USD bid carried through Asia. Higher lows formed at the 1.4186 asian low and the 1.4197 swing low, and price set a session high at 1.4212, just above the 1.4210 Tuesday high, before easing back under it into London open. RSI(14) peaked at 72.5 and then 71.9 against that higher high, a mild divergence. ATR(14) is compressed at 3.8 pips, and the ema20 at 1.4202 and the rising trendline sit just below.
Support: 1.42016, 1.41969, 1.41856
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.42124
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4210 Tuesday high and the 1.4212 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
A break of the rising trendline and the ema20 near 1.4202 tests the 1.4197 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.4197 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and opens the 1.4186 asian low
London open liquidity could lift ATR off its 3.8-pip compression; no scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through Asia · RSI 72 · price 1.42104
HH/HL chain, nudging above prior NY high.
Asia extended the post-CPI USD bid, clearing 1.4200 and edging past yesterday's 1.4210 prior high to a 1.4212 session high. Higher lows at 1.4186 and 1.4197 sit on rising support, with price above ema20 1.4201 and ema50 1.4191. RSI(14) at 71.9 is overbought but still under its 72.5 peak heading into the London open.
Support: 1.4210, 1.42011, 1.41969
Resistance: 1.42124, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4210 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4197 swing low breaks rising support and the Asia HL chain, exposing ema20 and ema50 near 1.4201/1.4191
A push above the 1.4212 session high without RSI clearing 72.5 would mark bearish divergence
ATR at 3.7 pips is compressed; a sustained hold above 1.4212 into London opens the path to the 1.4250 round number
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; Thursday Fedspeak and Friday US PPI are the next USD risk
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, retesting post-CPI high · RSI 69 · price 1.42095
Higher-low chain through Asia, pressing CPI-day high.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% forecast) drove the 13:30 UTC spike, and the CPI rally peaked at the 1.42099 cpi high. Since then the Asia session has built a higher-low chain off the 1.41794 swing low and is retesting that high ahead of London open, with price above the ema20 at 1.41999. RSI(14) at 68.6 sits below its 72.5 peak on the earlier Asia push, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 1.41999, 1.41969, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.42099 cpi high clears the post-CPI ceiling.
Failure to hold the 1.41969 higher low and the Asia trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain.
A move back below the ema20 at 1.41999 would point to rejection at the cpi high.
London open liquidity could test whether the cpi high caps the Asia advance.
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, retesting post-CPI high · RSI 67 · price 1.42071
Higher lows through Asia, pressing the 1.4210 cpi high.
The hot US CPI drove USDCAD to the 1.4210 cpi high, and the pair has climbed back to retest it in late Asia ahead of London open, above both EMAs on a rising Asia trendline. RSI(14) is at 67 against 72.5 on the 04:30 UTC push, a mild bearish divergence into the level, with ATR compressed at 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.41969, 1.41895, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 cpi high extends the post-CPI uptrend
Rejection at the cpi high and a break of the 1.4197 swing low would confirm the divergence and break the rising Asia trendline
Loss of ema50 at 1.4190 exposes the 1.4179 ny low
London open is likely to expand range beyond the 3.8-pip ATR
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, retesting post-CPI high · RSI 66 · price 1.42067
Higher lows through Asia, pressing 1.4207–1.4210 double cap.
The Asia session extended the hot-CPI USD bid. A higher-low chain off rising support carried price back to the 1.4207 Asia high, just under the 1.4210 CPI high, with RSI(14) at 66 after a 72.5 peak. ATR(14) is compressed at 3.8 pips into London open, and the 1.4197 swing low has held as the latest higher low.
Support: 1.41969, 1.41888, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42072, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 CPI high clears the double cap and extends the uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.4197 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the ema50 near 1.4189
Loss of the 1.4179 ny low would undo the post-CPI structure
London open is the first liquidity test of the 1.4207–1.4210 cap
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating under CPI high · RSI 64 · price 1.42038
Asia higher-low chain capped just below 1.4210.
USDCAD is holding the hot US CPI gains, with rate differentials outweighing oil. Late in the Asia session it ground from 1.4186 to an Asia high at 1.4207, just under the 1.4210 CPI high, and the dip to the 1.4197 pullback low held at the ema20 (1.4197) and the rising Asia trendline. RSI(14) has cooled from 72.5 to 64, and ATR is compressed at 3.8 pips heading into London open.
Support: 1.41969, 1.41881, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42067, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 CPI high clears the post-CPI range top; a rejection there leaves price capped under the Asia high
Break of the 1.4197 pullback low and the Asia trendline puts the ema50 at 1.4188 in focus
Loss of the 1.4179 swing low, which held above the 38.2% CPI leg fib, ends the higher-low chain
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate are the next USD risk to this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling under the cpi high · RSI 58 · price 1.41989
Higher lows since the NY swing low; Asia lower high just under the post-CPI peak.
The hot US CPI drove the NY rally to the 1.4210 cpi high. Asia then climbed from the 1.4186 asia hl but was rejected at 1.4207 (asia high), with RSI(14) cooling from 72.5 to 57.8. Price is holding the ema20 at 1.4197, at the 38.2% level of the asia leg fib, with ATR(14) compressed at 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.41967, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42067, 1.42099
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4210 cpi high opens fresh session highs.
Failure to hold the 1.4186 asia hl and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain.
A move below the 1.4179 ny swing low unwinds the post-CPI structure.
The London open in the next 1–2h tests whether the tight Asian range holds.
Higher lows through Asia, stalled below the CPI high.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pair out of its 1.4110–1.4140 range and ran it to the 1.42099 cpi high. NY hours then pulled it back to a 1.41794 swing low. In the late Asia session, price built higher lows off the 1.41856 asian low but met rejection at the 1.42067 asia high, and RSI(14) has cooled from 72.5 to 55.6. Price is now sitting on the ema20 at 1.41964, with ATR(14) at 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.41964, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42067, 1.42099
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.42099 cpi high breaks the double cap and extends the uptrend.
A close below the ema20 at 1.41964 brings the 50% of the asia rally (~1.4193) into play, then the asian low at 1.41856.
Losing the 1.41794 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain.
The London open is about 3h away and may set the session range against the 1.4186–1.4207 Asian range.
Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak could shift USD pricing.
Higher lows from 1.4179 into Asia; rejection under the CPI high.
The Asia session built a higher-low chain from the 1.4179 pullback low to a session high at 1.4207, a leg that followed the hot US CPI spike. The last closed bar rejected just under the 1.4210 CPI high and RSI(14) dropped from 72.5 to 59. Price still holds above the ema20 at 1.4196, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg, with the 1.4186 swing low below.
Support: 1.41963, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42067, 1.42099
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4210 CPI high negates the rejection and extends the uptrend.
A close back below the ema20 at 1.4196 puts the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4186 swing low in play.
Failure to hold the 1.4179 pullback low breaks the post-CPI higher-low structure.
London open is approaching, then US claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC, which could shift this read.
Asia session has stepped up in higher lows to 1.4205, retesting the 1.4210 cpi high set after Tuesday's hot US CPI print. The post-CPI pullback held 1.4179, just above the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib. RSI(14) at 72.5 is overbought, while ATR at 3.5 pips is compressing, so the advance is a slow grind above the ema20 at 1.4196 rather than an impulsive move.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4196, 1.41856
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4210 cpi high extends the post-CPI uptrend into new session highs
Failure at 1.4210 with a close back below the 1.4200 round number marks a rejection at the high
A break of the ema20 at 1.4196 and the rising lows toward the 1.4186 asia low turns the read back to a range
London open liquidity in ~2h is the first real test of the cpi high; ATR at 3.5 pips is the current expected bar size
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into CPI high · RSI 72 · price 1.42045
Asia HH/HL chain retesting post-CPI NY high.
The hot US CPI drove a 90-pip rally to the 1.4210 cpi high in NY. After a pullback that held at the 1.4179 swing low, the Asia session has ground higher off the 1.4186 higher low, back above 1.4200 and into the 1.4205 asia high just under that cpi high. RSI(14) at 71.6 is hot, ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips, and price holds above the rising ema20 (1.4195) and ema50.
Support: 1.4195, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42051, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 cpi high extends the post-CPI uptrend to new session highs
Rejection at the asia high / cpi high zone with RSI rolling off 70 sets up a double-top test
Break below the 1.4186 higher low ends the Asia HH/HL chain; the 1.4179 swing low is the next marker
London open in roughly 3.5h is the next likely expansion point from the 3.6-pip ATR compression
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing back toward the post-CPI high · RSI 70 · price 1.42024
Asia higher lows, overnight range broken to the upside.
The hot US CPI drove a 13:30 UTC breakout to the 1.42099 CPI high, and the NY pullback held the 1.41794 swing low. Asia then built higher lows off 1.41856 and broke the 1.4182–1.4195 overnight range, printing an Asia high at 1.42051. RSI(14) is at 70.2 and ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips, with price above the ema20 at 1.4194 and above the ema50.
Support: 1.4194, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42051, 1.42099
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.42099 CPI high extends the post-CPI uptrend; rejection at the 1.42051 Asia high or the CPI high leaves a double-top risk under the level.
A drop back below the ema20 at 1.4194 and the 1.41856 higher low breaks the Asia higher-low chain.
Failure to hold the 1.41794 swing low would undo most of the post-CPI move's structure.
No scheduled releases in the next 8h. London open is the next test of the Asia range; Thu claims, Fedspeak and Fri PPI are the next USD drivers.
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, testing post-CPI high · RSI 70 · price 1.4203
Asian range broken higher, higher lows into 1.4205.
The hot US CPI drove a 90-pip leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high, and NY faded it to a 1.4179 ny low before a tight 1.4182–1.4195 Asian range. Late Asia has broken that range on a higher low at 1.4186 and is pressing the 1.4205 asia high, with price above the ema20 at 1.4193, RSI(14) at 70.1 and ATR compressed to 3.8 pips. The pullbacks have so far held above the 50% level of the post-CPI fib.
Support: 1.4193, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42051, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 cpi high clears the post-CPI peak; a rejection there leaves a double top at the session highs
Break of the 1.4186 higher low and the ema20 at 1.4193 negates the late-Asia advance and exposes the 1.4179 ny low
London open in ~3h is the first liquidity test of the asia high breakout
Thursday jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled USD drivers
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing post-CPI high · RSI 68 · price 1.42021
Higher lows through Asia, back above 1.4200.
Hot US CPI drove a 1.4121–1.4210 leg Tuesday, and the evening pullback held near the 38.2% of that move at 1.4179. Late Asia session has built higher lows off a rising trendline from 1.4182 and reclaimed the 1.4200 psych level, with price above a rising ema20 (1.4192), RSI(14) at 68.1 and ATR compressed to 3.8 pips. The CPI high at 1.4210 sits about 8 pips overhead.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41919, 1.41856
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4200 psych turns the push into a false break
Loss of the 1.4186 swing low and the Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4210 CPI high extends the uptrend; rejection there leaves a double top
Thu US claims and Fed speakers, then Fri US PPI, are the next scheduled USD risks
USDCAD is holding the hot US CPI spike. The pullback from the 1.4210 CPI high stalled at the 1.4179 swing low, above the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib. The Asia session is printing rising lows off the 1.4186 Asia low and pressing the 1.4200 round number, with price above the ema20 (1.4191) and ema50, RSI 64 and ATR compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.4191, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 CPI high extends the post-CPI uptrend
Rejection at the 1.4200 round number keeps price in the overnight consolidation
Loss of the 1.4186 Asia low breaks the rising lows line
Break below the 1.4179 swing low opens a deeper retrace of the CPI leg
London open could expand range from the compressed 3.8-pip ATR
Higher lows through Asia session, pressing Asian high below CPI peak.
The hot US CPI drove a rally from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low, short of the 38.2% fib, and late Asia session is now grinding higher on higher lows into the 1.4198 Asian high, with price above a rising ema20 (1.4190). RSI(14) 59, ATR compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.41903, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41975, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4210 cpi high extends the post-CPI uptrend
Break below the 1.4186 higher low and ema20 at 1.4190 turns the Asian grind back into the 1.4180–1.4190 range
Loss of the 1.4179 swing low opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4176
London open may expand range from the compressed 3.7-pip ATR
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 65 · price 1.41952
Post-CPI impulse, shallow pullback, higher lows.
Hot US CPI drove a 1.4121–1.4210 leg. The NY pullback stalled at 1.4179 (cpi pb low), just short of the 38.2% retrace. Asia is printing higher lows above a rising ema20 and pressing the asian high at 1.4198 under the 1.4200 round number. RSI(14) sits at 64.7 and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.41899, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41975, 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4200 round number exposes the cpi high at 1.4210
Loss of the 1.4186 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low line
Close below 1.4179 cpi pb low puts the CPI leg fib 50% in play
US claims Thu and PPI Fri could shift Fed pricing and this read
Higher lows through Asia, pressing the asian high.
The hot US CPI drove an 89-pip rally to the 1.4210 post-CPI high. The NY pullback held the 1.4179 swing low just above the 38.2% of the CPI rally fib. Asia has built higher lows at 1.4182 and then 1.4186, and price is now retesting the 1.4195 asian high, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.41893, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41952, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 asian high opens a retest of the 1.4210 post-cpi hi
Break of the Asian rising line and the 1.4186 higher low, back under the ema20 at 1.4189, returns price to the 1.418–1.419 range
Loss of the 1.4179 swing low exposes the 38.2% CPI rally fib near 1.4176
London open in ~4h is the next test of whether the Asian range expands; US claims Thu and PPI Fri are the next scheduled USD risks
02:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.41923
Tight Asia range above ema20, higher lows off 1.4179.
The hot US CPI print drove a near 90-pip impulse to the 1.4210 NY high, with sliding crude adding to CAD weakness. Price then retraced about a third of the move to the 1.4179 swing low and has since built higher lows into a tight Asia range, 1.4186 to 1.4195, holding above the ema20. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips from 5.5 and RSI(14) sits at 58.9, with no stretch either way.
Support: 1.41887, 1.41856, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41952, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 asia high opens a retest of the 1.4210 ny high
Break of the 1.4186 asia low and the rising Asia trendline exposes the 1.4179 swing low, where ema50 sits at 1.4180
London open in about 4.5h is the likely trigger to resolve the compressed Asia range
Thu US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could shift the post-CPI USD bid
02:16 UTC
Uptrend after CPI breakout, now consolidating · RSI 54 · price 1.41896
Post-CPI high capped, Asia range above swing low with rising lows.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke USDCAD out of 1.4121 to the 1.4210 post-CPI high. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low, above the 38.2% fib, and the Asia session has compressed into 1.4182–1.4195 on rising lows. Price is just above the ema20 at 1.4188, RSI(14) is neutral at 54 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.9 pips.
Support: 1.41883, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41952, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 asia high exposes the 1.4210 post-cpi hi
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.4179 swing low shifts the read to a deeper retracement of the CPI move
Thu jobless claims and Fed-speaker slate are the next USD catalysts; nothing scheduled in the next 8h
Sideways consolidation 1.4179–1.4195 with rising Asia lows.
The hot US CPI impulse from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high has stalled into a tight range. The 19:45 UTC swing low at 1.4179 held above the fib 38.2 at 1.4176, and Asia has printed a series of higher lows up to 1.4186. Price sits just above EMA20 with RSI 54.6 and ATR compressed to 3.8 pips, capped so far by the 1.4195 Asia high.
Support: 1.41858, 1.41794, 1.41761
Resistance: 1.41952, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 asia high breaks the consolidation and opens the path back to the 1.4210 cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.4186 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 1.4179 swing low and fib 38.2 at 1.4176 in play
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; crude headlines on US-Iran diplomacy are the main intraday CAD driver
Higher lows inside 1.4180–1.4195 band, Asia testing top.
Hot US CPI drove a rally from 1.4121 to a 1.4210 cpi high in the NY session. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low near the 38.2% fib, with the ema50 just below, and price has since built a 1.4180–1.4195 consolidation. The Asia session is pressing the 1.4195 asian high on rising lows above the ema20 at 1.4188, while ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips from 6.1.
Support: 1.41882, 1.41822, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.41952, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4195 asian high exposes the 1.4210 cpi high
Break of the 1.4182 asian low and the rising lows line returns price to the 1.4179 swing low
Close below the 1.4179 swing low and ema50 (1.4178) breaks the post-CPI higher-low structure
No scheduled USD/CAD events in the next 8h; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next USD catalysts
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below the CPI high · RSI 62 · price 1.41938
Higher lows inside 1.4179–1.4191 range, Asia pressing range top.
The hot US CPI print drove an 89-pip NY leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high, after an earlier post-CPI dip held the 1.4155 cpi low. The pullback stopped at the 1.4179 swing low, above the 38.2% of the cpi rally fib. Early Asia session is edging above the 1.4191 evening range top on rising lows, holding over the ema20 at 1.4188, with RSI(14) at 62.1 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.41877, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4188 ema20 returns price to the evening range
Break of the 1.4179 swing low snaps the rising lows and exposes the 1.4155 cpi low
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number reopens the 1.4210 cpi high
No scheduled USD/CAD events in the next 8h; Thursday claims and Fed speakers are the next catalysts
Post-CPI range 1.4179–1.4191 with rising lows; Asia session pressing the range top.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC drove a 90-pip leg to the 1.4210 cpi high. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low near the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib, and price has ranged above it since, with rising lows and ATR compressing to 3.9 pips. Early Asia session is pushing through the 1.4191 range top with RSI(14) at 63.3, price above the ema20 and ema50.
Support: 1.4191, 1.41872, 1.4179
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4210
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema20 at 1.4187 turns the range-top break into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number opens the 1.4210 cpi high
Loss of the 1.4179 swing low breaks the rising lows and the post-CPI higher-low sequence
No tier-1 USD or CAD data in the next 8h; low ATR leaves breaks of the range top prone to stalling
Tight Asian range above ema20, higher lows off the 1.4179 swing low.
The hot US CPI print drove a near 90-pip leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low, a roughly 34% retrace, and price is now pressing the 1.4191 asian high from a tight 1.4182–1.4191 Asian range with higher lows above the ema20. ATR(14) has compressed from 6.4 to 3.8 pips and RSI(14) sits neutral at 56.5.
Support: 1.41865, 1.41794, 1.41765
Resistance: 1.41908, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 asian high reopens the 1.4210 cpi high
Break below the 1.4179 swing low exposes the ema50 at 1.4177, near the 38.2% level of the cpi leg fib
Loss of the higher lows trendline would end the Asian-session coil
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker cluster could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.4179–1.4191 below CPI high, higher lows forming.
Hot US CPI drove USD/CAD from 1.4121 to a 1.4210 cpi high. The pullback held 1.4179, above the 38.2% fib of that leg, and price has since held a 1.4179–1.4191 range through the BoC deliberations and into Asia. Higher lows are pressing the range top, price sits above ema20 and ema50, and ATR(14) has compressed to 4 pips from 6.4.
Support: 1.41863, 1.41794, 1.4176
Resistance: 1.41908, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top opens the path back to the 1.4210 cpi high
Break of the 1.4179 range low and the higher-lows line puts ema50 at 1.4176 and the 38.2% fib in play
Thin Asia session liquidity; crude moves on US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver until US data resumes
00:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pausing in tight range · RSI 56 · price 1.41891
Consolidation 1.4179–1.4191 above 38.2% retrace of CPI leg.
The hot US CPI print drove a 90-pip leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 cpi high during NY hours. The pullback held the 1.4179 swing low, just above the 38.2% fib. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4179–1.4191 range into early Asia, sitting above the ema20 (1.4186) and ema50 (1.4176) with ATR(14) shrinking to 4 pips.
Support: 1.4186, 1.41794, 1.41755
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low exposes the ema50 near 1.4176 and the 50% retrace at 1.4166
ATR compression to 4 pips points to a range break once London liquidity arrives
Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) could shift the USD leg
00:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, now pausing · RSI 55 · price 1.41861
Tight range 1.4179–1.4191 above 38.2% fib of CPI leg.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke USD/CAD out of the London range to a 1.4210 CPI high during NY hours. Since the post-BoC dip to a 1.4179 range low, price has compressed into a 12-pip band, holding above the 38.2% fib with ATR(14) down to 4.2 pips. Early Asia session is sitting on the ema20 at 1.4186, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.8.
Support: 1.41858, 1.41794, 1.41548
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top reopens the 1.4210 CPI high
Failure to hold the 1.4179 range low breaks the 38.2% fib and exposes the 1.4155 post-cpi low
ATR compression to 4.2 pips points to a thin Asia session; expansion would signal a range break
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next scheduled USD risk
Shallow pullback from 1.4210 day high, compressing in 1.4180–1.4191 band.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove a roughly 90-pip leg from 1.4121 to the 1.4210 day high. Price has since retraced about a third of that leg and compressed into a 1.4180–1.4191 band through the BoC deliberations and the NY close. ATR has shrunk to 4.3 pips and RSI is neutral at 53.5, with early Asia trade holding just above the ema20.
Support: 1.41857, 1.41794, 1.41745
Resistance: 1.41906, 1.42099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4191 range top ends the consolidation and puts the 1.4210 day high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4180 swing low exposes the ema50 at 1.4175, near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers on 50bp December pricing could materially shift this read