Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's low, slow grind near the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed about 175 pips from Monday's 1.4077 London-session low. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the main NY-session leg through the 1.4210 cpi high, and Wednesday added a steady grind across Asia, London and NY hours to a week high at 1.4253. Price holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), but RSI(14) at 77.6 is overbought and has eased from 82.9 while price set only a marginal new high, a tentative bearish divergence, with ATR compressing to 9.3 pips.
Support: 1.42295, 1.42099, 1.41907
Resistance: 1.42532, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the ema20 at 1.4230, which is also the four-week breakout area, would put the 1.4210 cpi high and the rising lows line in focus
Failure to hold the cpi high at 1.4210 exposes the ema50 near 1.4191 and the 38.2% fib of the week's advance near 1.4186
An H1 close above the 1.4253 week high would void the divergence read and leave the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thursday and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; core PPI on Friday is the larger test
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low.
The Monday rally from 1.4077 got its decisive leg in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI beat carried the pair to a 1.4210 post-CPI high. Wednesday then ground steadily higher from the Asia session through NY to a fresh week high at 1.4252, with pullbacks holding above EMA(20) and along a higher-lows line. RSI(14) has stayed above 70 for 20 bars and plateaued at 81-83, while ATR(14) has compressed from 11.8 to 9 pips, so the advance is extending on shrinking ranges.
Support: 1.42335, 1.42276, 1.42099
Resistance: 1.42521, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4234 pullback low and EMA(20) at 1.4228 would break the higher-lows line and the Wednesday sequence
A retrace through the 1.4210 CPI high would put most of the post-CPI leg back in play
RSI holding near 82 without a new price thrust leaves room for a bearish divergence to form against the 1.4252 week high
Clearance of the 1.4252 week high exposes the 1.4300 round number
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu, then a heavy Fed-speak slate, could materially shift this read; Friday PPI follows
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 83 · price 1.4248
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low; post-CPI breakout grinding to new week highs.
USDCAD broke out of the 1.4105–1.4140 range during Tuesday's NY session on the hot US CPI beat. It has since climbed steadily through Wednesday's London and NY hours to a week high near 1.4250, holding above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4217 with no pullback testing it. RSI(14) is pinned in the 80s without bearish divergence, but ATR has compressed from 13 to 10 pips, so the advance is slowing in pace, not reversing. Tuesday's 1.4210 prior high sits just under the EMA(20) as the first area to monitor on any dip.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4210, 1.4179
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 1.4217 and the 1.4210 prior high would end the one-way grind
Loss of the 1.4179 post-cpi low, near the 38.2% fib of the Mon–Wed rally, breaks the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4250 week high exposes the 1.4300 psych level
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu from 13:30 UTC, plus Fri core PPI, could reprice 50bp Fed odds and shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 82 · price 1.42441
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low.
USDCAD broke higher in the NY session Tuesday on the hot US CPI beat, pushing from 1.4134 to 1.4210, and has added a steady grind through Asia and London today to a week high at 1.42498. That leaves it roughly 125 pips above the 1.41193 weekly open. Price holds above both a rising EMA(20) at 1.4214 and EMA(50) at 1.41751, with RSI(14) pinned in overbought territory near 82 and no bearish divergence yet. ATR has compressed from 13.8 to 10.7 pips, so the advance is orderly rather than impulsive, and today's 1.42335 pullback low marks the first dip off the high.
Support: 1.42335, 1.4214, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42498, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.42335 pullback low breaks Wednesday's rising line and points to a test of the ema20 near 1.4214
A lower RSI high on a fresh push above the 1.42498 week high would flag bearish divergence
Acceptance above 1.4250 opens the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the 1.41794 swing low would undo the post-CPI higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and the Thursday Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read; core PPI follows Friday
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought on a slow grind · RSI 81 · price 1.42398
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's low.
USD/CAD has stepped higher since Monday's London-session low at 1.4077. The hot US CPI print at Tuesday's NY open drove the dominant leg, a breakout through Friday's 1.4137 high toward 1.4210. Wednesday extended on a grind of rising lows to a 1.4250 week high, with price above both EMAs, ATR compressing to 10.9 pips and RSI(14) overbought at 80.7 but no bearish divergence yet. Tuesday's post-CPI swing low at 1.4179 sits close to the 38.2% fib of the week's advance, with the ema20 at 1.4211 the nearest pullback marker.
Support: 1.42109, 1.41794, 1.41193
Resistance: 1.42498, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.4211 breaks the rising lows line and starts a deeper pullback within the uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4119 week open
Acceptance above the 1.4250 week high opens the 1.4300 round number
An RSI lower high on a fresh price high would flag momentum fading from overbought
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate after it could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 83 · price 1.42446
Higher lows since Tuesday's CPI spike, new week high.
USDCAD has carried the post-NFP uptrend through the week. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove a NY-session spike from 1.4135 to 1.4210, and Wednesday's Asia and London sessions ground out a clean run of higher lows to a week high at 1.4250, clearing the 4-week high at 1.4230. Price holds well above the ema20 (1.4208) and ema50 (1.4170), with RSI(14) at 82.9 overbought and ATR compressing to 10.8 pips as per-bar range narrows. Below the 1.4230 breakout, the 38.2% fib of the Monday-low rally near 1.4184 sits just above Tuesday's 1.4179 swing low.
Support: 1.4230, 1.42078, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42497, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4-week high at 1.4230 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4208 and the higher lows line would end Wednesday's grind
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low would put the post-CPI leg in question
Clearance of the 1.4250 week high leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker run (Hammack 14:00, Barr 15:00) could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Uptrend, stretched but intact · RSI 83 · price 1.42437
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low; post-CPI breakout extending.
USD/CAD has stepped higher all window. Friday's US/Canada jobs divergence lifted it off 1.406, Monday's London dip to 1.4077 held, and Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the NY-session breakout to the 1.4210 CPI high. Price has since climbed steadily through Asia and London today to a week high at 1.4246, tracking a rising trendline well above the ema20 at 1.4204. RSI(14) at 82.5 is overbought and ATR(14) has compressed from 15.3 to 10.9 pips, so the advance is still going but at a slower pace.
Support: 1.42099, 1.42043, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42463, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below today's rising trendline and back under the 1.4210 CPI high / ema20 at 1.4204 would break the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4179 swing low, near the 50% retracement of the post-CPI leg, would undo Tuesday's breakout structure
Sustained trade above the 1.4246 week high brings the 1.4300 round number into view; overbought RSI with shrinking ATR leaves scope for a stall at the highs
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC Thu) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read; Friday's core PPI is the larger test
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 81 · price 1.42347
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low, grinding at week high.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print lifted USD/CAD from 1.4135 to a 1.4210 prior high. Asia and London extended it today to a 1.4235 week high, well above the 1.4190 mid-October area flagged in the CAD digest. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4201 and EMA(50) at 1.4164, with the higher-lows sequence from Monday's 1.4077 low intact. RSI(14) at 80.8 is overbought, and ATR has compressed from 16 to 10.5 pips, so today's advance is a lower-volatility grind rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 1.4210, 1.42006, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42347, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4210 prior high would put the breakout above Tuesday's peak in question
A pullback to ema20 near 1.4201 would test whether the EMA(20) cycle still contains dips
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Week high at 1.4235 and the 1.4250 round number are the next areas to watch for rejection or extension
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC, the Fed speaker slate and Fri Core PPI could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows; post-CPI breakout above 1.4210 extending.
USDCAD has stepped higher since Monday's 1.4077 low. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the main impulse during NY hours, taking price through 1.4210 (the cpi high), and the move fits the policy-divergence and softer-oil backdrop weighing on CAD. Wednesday's Asia and London sessions extended to a week high at 1.4232 on a run of higher lows, with price holding well above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4197. RSI(14) at 80.2 is overbought, while ATR has compressed to 10.8 pips from 16 after CPI, so the advance is grinding on narrowing ranges.
Support: 1.4210, 1.41971, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4210 cpi high would turn the breakout into a retest of the EMA(20) at 1.4197
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low (Tuesday's post-CPI pullback) breaks the higher-low sequence
A loss of the Wednesday higher lows trendline would end the session grind
Acceptance above the 1.4232 week high leaves the 1.4250 round number as the next reference
Thu US jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri PPI, could reprice December Fed odds and shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's low, grinding above the CPI high.
USDCAD has climbed from Monday's London-session low at 1.4077 to a fresh week high at 1.4221. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the main leg during NY hours, and today's London session has pushed back above the CPI high at 1.4210, with the Tuesday NY swing low at 1.4179 marking the latest higher low. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4191 and the EMA(50), but RSI(14) sits overbought at 77.2 and is no higher than its post-CPI reading despite the higher high, while ATR has compressed from 16 to 11 pips, a grinding advance rather than an impulsive one.
Support: 1.42099, 1.41908, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42212, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4210 cpi high turns the breakout into a false break and puts ema20 at 1.4191 in play
Failure to hold the 1.4179 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence from Monday
Acceptance above the 1.4221 week high leaves the 1.4250 round number as the next reference
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and heavy Fedspeak into Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, overbought with range compressing · RSI 75 · price 1.42129
Higher lows since Monday; post-CPI breakout holding above the cpi high.
USD/CAD is up about 140 pips from Monday's London-session low at 1.4077. The dominant leg came in NY hours Tuesday, when the hot US CPI beat lifted the pair through Monday's 1.4136 high to the 1.4210 cpi high, adding to the post-jobs divergence leg from Friday. Wednesday's Asia and London sessions ground on to a week high at 1.4219, with Tuesday's late dip holding the 1.4179 swing low and price staying above EMA(20) at 1.4188. RSI(14) is overbought at 74.8 while ATR has compressed from 16 to 11 pips, so the advance has slowed into a narrow grind.
Support: 1.4210, 1.41877, 1.4179
Resistance: 1.42188, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4210 cpi high would mark the latest push as a false break
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.4188 and the 1.4179 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 1.4165
Close above the 1.4219 week high opens the 1.4250 round number
Higher lows trendline from Monday's low sits near 1.4130; a break would end the week's uptrend read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 75 · price 1.42142
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's London low; post-CPI breakout extended in Asia.
USDCAD broke the 1.4105–1.4139 range in the NY session on Tuesday after the hot US CPI. It then pulled back to a swing low at 1.4179 and held above the rising EMA(20), now 1.4185, before grinding through the cpi high at 1.4210 to a fresh week high at 1.4214 during Asia hours. RSI(14) is overbought at 74.9 but sits below the 77.6 printed at Tuesday's CPI push, a bearish divergence. ATR(14) has compressed from 16.3 to 11.1 pips, so the latest leg is a low-range drift rather than a new impulse. Monday's London low and Tuesday's pre-CPI low form the higher-lows line under the move, and rate differentials rather than oil continue to drive CAD.
Support: 1.42099, 1.41851, 1.41794
Resistance: 1.42143, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the cpi high at 1.4210 would mark the Asia extension as a failed break
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4185 and the 1.4179 swing low would break the post-CPI higher-low sequence
Fib 38.2% of the CPI impulse near 1.4172 is the first retracement marker below the swing low
A push toward the 1.4250 round number with RSI(14) divergence intact keeps the extension on thin momentum
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows; post-CPI breakout holding above 1.4139.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 265 pips from Thursday's 1.3945 low. The rally came on Friday's US-Canada jobs divergence and then Tuesday's hot US CPI, which carried price through the 1.4139 prior high in the NY session and into a CPI impulse up to 1.4210. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4182 and EMA(50) at 1.4148, and the Asia session printed a fresh week high at 1.4212. RSI(14) is overbought at 72.9 but sits below its 77.6 post-CPI peak, a bearish divergence, while ATR compresses to 11 pips.
Support: 1.41821, 1.4139, 1.41193
Resistance: 1.42124, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the ema20 near 1.4182 would end the shallow post-CPI pullback pattern and expose the 1.4139 prior high (near the 50% of the CPI impulse fib)
A move through the 1.4212 week high with RSI rising would negate the bearish divergence; 1.4250 round number is the next reference
Loss of the higher-lows line near 1.4137 and the week open at 1.4119 would undo the CPI breakout structure
Thursday Fedspeak (Williams late) and Friday 13:30 UTC US PPI could reprice 25 vs 50bp odds and materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought near week high · RSI 73 · price 1.42067
Higher lows since Monday; tight post-CPI range retesting the high.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Monday's London low near 1.4077, with the dominant impulse in Tuesday's NY session as the hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) took the pair to a week high at 1.4210. The post-CPI pullback held at 1.4179, where the rising EMA(20) now sits, and Asia session demand has brought price back to retest the week high. RSI(14) is overbought at 72.6, but it sits below Tuesday's 77.6 peak, and ATR(14) has eased to 11.4 pips from 16.3 as ranges compress beneath resistance.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41795, 1.4139
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4210 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
Loss of 1.4200 psych, then the ema20 near 1.4180, would break the post-CPI higher-low sequence
A move back below the 1.4140 pre-cpi high would signal the CPI impulse is unwinding
US Initial Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak cluster from 13:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
The dominant move came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI beat lifted USD/CAD out of Monday's 1.4077–1.4136 range to a 1.4210 week high. That extended Friday's jobs-driven rally as rate differentials kept CAD on the back foot. Wednesday's Asia session has pushed back to the week high, with the Asia high at 1.4207 and RSI(14) at 70.2, overbought but below the 77.6 post-CPI peak, while ATR has eased to 11.5 pips. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 1.4177, with the prior highs at 1.4137 and the week open at 1.4119 below.
Support: 1.41767, 1.4137, 1.41193
Resistance: 1.42067, 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4210 week high extends the post-CPI breakout; repeated stalls at the Asia high point to a double top forming
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.4177 turns the move into a range between 1.4137 and 1.4210
A break back below the prior highs at 1.4137 erodes the higher-lows sequence and puts the week open at 1.4119 in view
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI is the next test of the hot-CPI move behind the breakout
Higher lows since Monday; post-CPI breakout holding.
USD/CAD has built higher lows since Monday's London dip to 1.4077. The hot US CPI print on Tuesday drove a NY-session breakout through the 1.4139 breakout area to a week high of 1.4210, extending the move that began with Friday's jobs divergence. The post-CPI pullback low at 1.4179 held just above the ema20 (1.4174), and the Asia session has ground back up toward the week high. RSI(14) is overbought at 73.4 but below its 77.6 peak on CPI day, while ATR has compressed from 16.3 to 11.8 pips as the move matures.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41743, 1.41391
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4210 week high extends the CPI impulse, with 1.4250 psych the next reference
Loss of the 1.4179 pullback low and an H1 close below the ema20 would mark the first lower low since the CPI breakout
A return below the 1.4139 breakout level, where ema50 also sits, would put Tuesday's breakout in doubt
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus heavy Fedspeak, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
A fresh high with RSI failing to clear its CPI-day peak would set up a bearish divergence
Higher lows since Monday; post-breakout consolidation below week high.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 London low, and the hot US CPI beat in Tuesday's NY session broke the 1.4137–1.4140 prior cap that had held since Friday, extending to a 1.4210 week high as sliding crude added to CAD weakness. Since then price has held a tight consolidation above the 1.4179 post-CPI low, with the BoC Summary of Deliberations drawing little reaction and the Asian high at 1.4198 capping overnight. Price sits above EMA(20) at 1.4171 and EMA(50) at 1.4138, with RSI(14) holding overbought near 71 and ATR easing from 16.3 to 11.8 pips as momentum cools.
Support: 1.4179, 1.4171, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4210
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4179 post-CPI low breaks the consolidation and exposes EMA(20) at 1.4171, near the 38.2% of the CPI impulse fib
Acceptance back below the 1.4140 prior cap, where EMA(50) sits, returns price to the pre-CPI range and undercuts the breakout read
A close above the 1.4198 Asian high and 1.4210 week high extends the uptrend sequence
Break of the higher-low line from Monday's low would end the week's rising structure
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; CPI breakout of 1.4110–1.4140 range, shallow pullback holding.
USD/CAD has climbed from 1.3949 since Thursday's open. The two biggest legs came in NY hours: Friday's US-Canada jobs divergence, then Tuesday's hot US CPI, which broke the 1.4110–1.4140 Monday–Tuesday range and printed a week high at 1.4210, with sliding crude adding to CAD weakness. The pullback low at 1.4179 sits on the 23.6% of the leg from Monday's 1.4077 low. Asia is now compressing in a 1.4182–1.4195 band above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4169, with ATR easing to 11.8 pips and RSI(14) cooling from 77.6 to 68.5 without resetting toward 50.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41686, 1.41397
Resistance: 1.41952, 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4210 week high, after clearing the 1.4195 Asia high, extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4179 pullback low exposes ema20 at 1.4169 and the 38.2% fib near 1.4159
A close back below the 1.4140 prior high (old range top) would mark the CPI breakout as a false break and bring the rising trendline from Monday's low into play
BoC deliberations passed with little H1 reaction; Thu jobless claims, the Fed-speaker slate and Fri PPI are the next USD tests for this structure
USDCAD has climbed from Thursday's 1.3950 area in NY-session legs. Friday's US/Canada jobs split drove the first, and Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the 1.4105–1.4139 range to a 1.4210 week high, as the higher-lows line from Monday's 1.4077 London low held. Since then price has held a tight 1.4179–1.4190 consolidation through the BoC deliberations and the Asia session, above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4166. RSI(14) has eased from 77.6 to 68.2 and ATR(14) has compressed to 12.1 pips, while the Monday low to CPI high fib puts the 38.2% near 1.4159.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41664, 1.4139
Resistance: 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4179 post-cpi low exposes ema20 at 1.4166 and the 38.2% fib near 1.4159
Return inside the old range top at 1.4139 would undo the CPI range break and test the higher-lows line
Acceptance above the 1.4210 week high would extend the uptrend into fresh highs
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims, Fed speakers and Fri 13:30 UTC US PPI could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, breakout above 1.4140 consolidating.
Hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session broke the 1.4136-1.4140 cap that had held on Friday, Monday and Tuesday morning, extending the higher lows from Monday's 1.4077 London low to a week high at 1.4210. Price has since held a tight 1.4179-1.4190 band, above the 1.4179 post-CPI swing low and well clear of ema20 (1.4164) and ema50 (1.4131). RSI(14) has cooled from 77.6 to 67.4 and ATR has contracted from 16.3 to 12.7 pips, which reads as consolidation under the 1.4200 round number rather than reversal; the 50% fib of the Monday-Tuesday leg sits near the 1.4140 breakout level.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41641, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4179 swing low opens a test of ema20 near 1.4164
Failure to hold the 1.4140 breakout level (50% fib zone) returns price to the prior range
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number and week high at 1.4210 resumes the uptrend
A break of the higher lows trendline from Monday's 1.4077 would shift the structure
Thu jobless claims plus Fed speakers, then Fri PPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read