Higher lows since Monday; tight consolidation under week high.
USD/CAD broke above Monday's 1.4139 prior high on the hot US CPI print during NY hours. That extended a run of higher lows from Monday's 1.4077 to a week high at 1.4210, with RSI(14) peaking at 77.6. Since then price has consolidated in a tight 1.4179–1.4210 band just under the 1.4200 round number, the post-CPI swing low holding above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4162 with RSI easing to 67.9 and ATR contracting from 16.3 to 13.3 pips; the BoC deliberations summary passed without a break of the band, leaving the Monday-to-CPI leg intact.
Support: 1.4179, 1.41618, 1.4139
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4210
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4179 swing low exposes the ema20 at 1.4162
Failure to hold the 1.4139 prior high would undercut the higher-lows sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4210 week high, through the 1.4200 round number, extends the breakout
Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Higher highs and higher lows; post-breakout pause below 1.4210.
USD/CAD cleared the 1.4139 prior high (Monday and Tuesday morning highs) at the NY open after the hot October CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%). It printed a 1.4210 week high, then eased into a shallow pullback that held the 1.4179 swing low through the BoC Summary of Deliberations. Price sits above EMA(20) at 1.4159 and EMA(50) at 1.4127. RSI(14) has cooled from 77.6 to 68.9 and ATR(14) has eased to 13.8 pips from a 16.3 peak. The higher-lows line from Monday's 1.4077 London-session low remains intact, and the 38.2% fib of that leg coincides with the ema20.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41592, 1.4139
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4179 swing low opens a pullback toward the ema20 at 1.4159, which is also the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4210 week high would extend the CPI breakout
A close back below the 1.4139 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; any endorsement of a 50bp December hike is the swing factor
A break of the higher-lows line near 1.4125 would end the week's uptrend structure
Higher lows since Monday; shallow flag after Tuesday's CPI impulse.
The climb from Thursday's 1.3942 low gained pace on Friday's NFP spike. Waller lifted it again in London on Tuesday, and the hot US CPI print in the NY session extended Tuesday's impulse from 1.4105 to a 1.42099 week high, with ATR(14) expanding to 16 pips and RSI(14) peaking at 77.6. Price has since eased in a shallow flag of lower highs near 1.4190, holding the 1.4179 pullback low as the BoC deliberations barely registered. RSI has cooled to 69.1, and price stays above both EMAs, with EMA(20) at 1.4156 near the 50% retrace of the Tuesday impulse.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41561, 1.41397
Resistance: 1.41904, 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4179 pullback low exposes EMA(20) and the 50% retrace of Tuesday's impulse around 1.4156
Failure to hold the 1.4140 prior high zone would undercut Tuesday's breakout and bring the higher-lows trendline into play
Close above the 1.42099 week high would end the flag of lower highs and resume the uptrend
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, then Thursday's jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; post-CPI range break above 1.4140.
USDCAD has climbed from Monday's 1.4077 low, and today's hot US CPI beat drove a NY-session range break above the 1.4136–1.4139 range top that had capped Friday and Monday. The move ran to a 1.4210 week high, just through the 1.4200 psych level. Price is now easing back with RSI(14) off its 77.6 peak to 67.1, still holding above EMA(20) at 1.4153 and EMA(50) at 1.4121, and the 18:30 UTC BoC deliberations barely moved the pair.
Support: 1.41794, 1.41527, 1.4139
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4179 pullback low opens a deeper retrace toward the ema20 at 1.4153, near the 38.2% of the Monday-CPI leg
Acceptance above the 1.4200 psych level and a break of the 1.4210 week high would extend the higher-high sequence
A return below the 1.4139 range top, back into the old range, would undercut the breakout; the higher lows trendline from Monday sits near 1.4121
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read on any 50bp December talk
USD/CAD has built higher lows from Monday's London-session dip near 1.4077. Waller's hawkish remarks lifted it through the 1.4140 prior high, and the hot US CPI beat then drove a NY-session breakout to a 1.4210 week high. Price has eased back to 1.4184, with RSI(14) cooling to 69.7 from 77.6 and ATR expanded to 15.3 pips. It still sits above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4150, while the 1.4200 round number caps the latest bars and the post-cpi low at 1.4155 and the ema20 mark the first pullback references.
Support: 1.41548, 1.41497, 1.4139
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4140 prior high would undo the breakout and return price inside the old channel
Failure to hold the higher lows line from Monday's 1.4077 and Tuesday's 1.4105 would break the week's rising structure
H1 close above the 1.4210 week high extends the CPI impulse; the 38.2% retracement of the Monday low move sits near 1.4159, alongside the post-cpi low
BoC Summary of Deliberations reaction (18:30 UTC) and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; Mon–Tue 1.4105–1.4140 range broken to the upside.
USD/CAD broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.4105–1.4140 range during NY hours as the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) and sliding crude extended the post-NFP leg. The pair printed a week high at 1.4210 before easing to 1.4187. Price sits well above a rising EMA(20) at 1.4146 with RSI(14) at 70.3 off a 77.6 peak and ATR expanded to 16 pips from under 10. The 50% retracement of the Monday low-to-week high move (mon-tue fib) lands near 1.4143, in confluence with the ema20 and the 1.4140 prior high, while the rising trendline from last Thursday's low tracks near the 1.4119 week open.
Support: 1.41459, 1.41397, 1.41193
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42099
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone would test the stretched CPI leg
H1 close back below the 1.4140 prior high returns price to the Monday–Tuesday range and undercuts the breakout
Rejection at the 1.4200 round number / 1.4210 week high with RSI slipping back under 70 would point to consolidation toward the ema20
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; the 25bp vs 50bp December framing could move USD
A break of the rising trendline near the 1.4119 week open ends the higher-low sequence
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 76 · price 1.41974
Higher highs and higher lows; CPI breakout above prior highs.
USD/CAD has extended the post-NFP impulse from Thursday's 1.3942 low. Tuesday's hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a NY-session break through the 1.4137–1.4140 prior highs, reaching a week high at 1.4210 as sliding crude weighed on CAD. Price sits about 55 pips above EMA(20) at 1.4142, with RSI(14) at 76.3 in overbought territory and ATR expanding to 16.1 pips. Monday's London dip found demand at 1.4077, near the 50% of the impulse, and Tuesday's London low at 1.4105 added another higher low.
Support: 1.41548, 1.41416, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.42099, 1.4250
What it said to watch
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone risks a slide toward the cpi pullback low at 1.4155
H1 close back below the 1.4140 prior highs and ema20 at 1.4142 would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
H1 close above the 1.4210 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
Break of the higher lows trendline and the monday low at 1.4077 would undo the impulse structure
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, are further USD risk while RSI(14) stays overbought
Higher lows since Monday's 1.4077 low; 1.4140 triple cap broken.
Monday's London-session dip to 1.4077 was bought through NY, building a higher low at 1.4105 into Tuesday, before the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 1.4140 breakout level that had capped Friday, Monday and the Waller spike. The NY-session follow-through has tagged a 1.4202 session high above the 1.4200 round number. Price sits about 64 pips above the rising EMA(20) at 1.4136 with RSI(14) overbought at 77.6 and ATR expanding from 9.5 to 16.3 pips. The CPI pullback low at 1.4155 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-to-Tuesday leg.
Support: 1.41548, 1.4140, 1.41358
Resistance: 1.42023, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4140 breakout level would mark a false break and put the EMA(20) at 1.4136 in play
Hold of the 1.4155 CPI pullback low on any dip keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Acceptance above the 1.4202 session high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
RSI(14) above 70 after an ATR expansion leaves the move stretched; a lower RSI high on a new price high would flag divergence
BoC Summary of Deliberations in ~2.5h (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman (20:30, 23:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on 25 vs 50bp in December
Higher lows since Monday; 1.4140 range cap broken on CPI.
Monday's London-session dip to the 1.4077 Monday low drew demand, and the NY rally set a higher-lows sequence. That sequence then sat under a 1.4135-1.4140 cap that held on Friday, Monday and early Tuesday. Tuesday's hot US CPI (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%, both above forecast) broke that cap in the first hour of NY, and the pair pressed to a 1.4192 session high. RSI(14) at 70.1 is overbought, ATR(14) has expanded from about 9.5 to 14.4 pips, and price holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with EMA(20) at 1.4129 turning higher.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41291, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41916, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4140 breakout level would point to a false break back into the prior range
Failure to hold ema20 at 1.4129 would break the higher-lows trendline from Monday
Session high 1.4192 and the 1.4200 round number are the area to watch for rejection or extension; a new high on fading RSI would flag bearish divergence
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, breaking higher on hot US CPI · RSI 75 · price 1.41666
Range top break, higher lows since Monday.
Hotter-than-forecast US October CPI (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) pushed USDCAD through the 1.4135–1.4140 range top that capped Friday's post-NFP high, Monday's NY rally and Tuesday's Waller spike, printing a new week high at the 1.4176 CPI high. The break extends the higher-low sequence from Monday's 1.4077 weekly low and Tuesday's 1.4105 Asia-to-London low, with EMA(20) rising at 1.4125 underneath. RSI(14) at 74.7 is overbought for the first time since Monday's 70.1 reading, and ATR has expanded to 14.1 pips from below 10 earlier in the session.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41253, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41761, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4140 range top would mark the CPI break as a false break
A pullback holding the rising EMA(20) near 1.4125 keeps the higher lows intact
Clearance of the 1.4176 CPI high opens the 1.4200 round number
A lower RSI high on any retest of the CPI high would flag rsi divergence (bearish)
The Thursday-to-Tuesday impulse 38.2% retracement sits near 1.4087, just above the 1.4077 weekly low
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/CAD has held the NFP-driven jump since Friday's NY session, ranging 1.4077–1.4140 with demand stepping in at progressively higher lows from the Monday low. Waller's hawkish remarks during London lifted price to a marginal week high at 1.4140, a third test of that cap, but RSI(14) printed 65.7 against 70.1 on Monday's NY test, a mild bearish divergence. Price sits above the EMA(20) at 1.4120 and the EMA(50), with ATR(14) back at 11 pips after compressing into US CPI.
Support: 1.41204, 1.4105, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.41397
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read within the hour
H1 close above the 1.4140 week high breaks the three-test cap
Close below the ema20 at 1.4120 and the tuesday low at 1.4105 would break the higher-low trendline
Loss of the monday low at 1.4077 opens the 38.2% rally fib near 1.4064
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a secondary CAD risk
1.4077–1.4140 range since Friday, rising lows under a flat top.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4077–1.4140 range since Friday's US-Canada jobs divergence lifted it roughly 45 pips in a single bar. Monday's London dip to the 1.4077 monday low was retraced in NY, and price still sits above EMA(20) at 1.4119 and EMA(50) near 1.4100. Tuesday's London push to 1.4140 met rejection at the range top, with RSI(14) peaking at 65.7 against Monday's 70.1 for a bearish divergence, while ATR(14) has compressed to 10.9 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.4119, 1.4105, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4140 range top breaks the flat top and opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Close below the tuesday low at 1.4105 and EMA(20) breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.4077 monday low back in focus
A break of the 1.4077 monday low ends the post-NFP range and exposes the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse near 1.4064
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%, headline 0.3%) could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a second CAD-side risk
11:02 UTC
Uptrend paused, compressing below the week high · RSI 58 · price 1.41253
Higher lows under a flat 1.4137-1.4140 cap.
Friday's NFP leg did most of the week's work. The US payroll beat against Canada's jobs miss lifted USD/CAD from Thursday's 1.3943 low to 1.4138. Since then, highs at 1.4138 (Friday) and 1.4137 (Monday's NY session) and a London-open probe to the 1.4140 week high today have all been rejected. Meanwhile, higher lows at the 1.4077 Monday low and the 1.4105 range low build underneath. Price holds above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4118 and EMA(50) at 1.4099, with RSI(14) cooled to 58 from 70 on Monday and ATR compressed near 11 pips.
Support: 1.41183, 1.41054, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41401
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4140 week high, also the digest's channel top, breaks the cap and ends the compression read
Failure below the 1.4105 range low, with EMA(50) near 1.4099, breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.4077 Monday low
Repeated H1 closes back under ema20 at 1.4118 shift the pullback read toward the range low
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a secondary CAD risk
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 65 · price 1.41344
Higher lows since Monday under a flat 1.4140 cap.
USDCAD has climbed about 210 pips in the wed-tue rally from Wednesday's 1.3930 low, with Friday's US payrolls beat against a Canadian jobs miss driving the step through 1.41 in the first hour of NY. Since Monday's open the pair has held above EMA(20) on a run of higher lows from the 1.4077 Monday low. Early London today pushed to a marginal week high near 1.4140, but RSI(14) at 65.4 sits below Monday's 70 print, a bearish divergence, while ATR has compressed to 10–11 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.41173, 1.41054, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4150
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4140 week high, tested three times since Friday, opens the 1.4150 round number
A drop back below ema20 at 1.4117 and the 1.4105 London low would break the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the 1.4077 Monday low would turn the pause into a deeper retracement of the wed-tue rally
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and BoC deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-NFP higher lows; 1.4105-1.4128 range under twin highs.
USDCAD has held Friday's gains, when the 165K NFP beat and Canada's -4.7K jobs print lifted the pair through 1.4100. Monday's London-session dip to 1.4077 was bought in NY hours as oil slid, but the advance stalled at 1.4137, matching Friday's high to form twin highs. Since then price has compressed between the asia low at 1.4105 and the asia high at 1.4128, closing just below EMA(20) at 1.4115 with EMA(50) at 1.4096 rising beneath. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to about 51 and ATR has eased to 9.5 pips, and the asia low sits near the 50% retracement of Monday's swing.
Support: 1.41153, 1.41054, 1.40962
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41375
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (f/c 0.3% m/m, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read.
An H1 close above the 1.4137 twin highs would break the cap and end the consolidation read.
A failure to hold the 1.4105 asia low and ema50 at 1.4096 would break the higher-low line and expose Monday's 1.4077 low.
The BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a second CAD catalyst after CPI.
Tight consolidation under a twin top at 1.4136-1.4138.
Friday's split jobs data (US NFP 165K beat, Canada -4.7K miss) drove the week's dominant move. The NFP leg ran from Thursday's 1.3943 low to a 1.41375 high. Monday's NY-session rally stalled at 1.41365 and Monday's later highs were capped just below, leaving a potential double top. Since then price has made lower highs from Monday and higher lows off Monday's 1.40774 low, slipping below EMA(20) at 1.41155 into London with RSI(14) back at 49.6 from 70, ATR compressing to 9.6 pips and EMA(50) at 1.40955 below the 1.4105 session low.
Support: 1.41054, 1.40955, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41155, 1.41283, 1.41375
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.41155 and the 1.41283 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line
A clean break of the 1.41375 double top extends the NFP leg
Failure to hold the 1.4105 session low exposes ema50 at 1.40955 and the higher-lows line
A close below the 1.40774 Monday low confirms the double top
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; BoC Summary of Deliberations follows at 18:30 UTC
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling in a tight range · RSI 54 · price 1.41142
Post-NFP range 1.4111–1.4137 with lower highs and compressing ATR.
USDCAD broke out of the mid-week 1.39–1.40 base on Friday's US NFP beat and Canada jobs miss, setting a week high at 1.4137 that Monday's NY-session rally retested but could not clear. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4111–1.4137 band, hugging a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4116, with RSI(14) easing from 70 to 54 and ATR(14) contracting to 9.4 pips ahead of US CPI. Monday's London-session dip to 1.4078 held above the 23.6% fib of the week's advance, and the rising EMA(50) at 1.4095 sits just under the range low.
Support: 1.4111, 1.40949, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41375
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4111 range low exposes the ema50 at 1.4095 and Monday low at 1.4078
H1 close above the 1.4128 Asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4137 week high
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could break the range; Waller at 09:00 UTC is an earlier risk
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and WTI near August lows can extend CAD-specific moves
Loss of the Monday low would mark a deeper retracement of the weekly fib
Higher lows below 1.4137 equal highs, Asian compression.
Friday's NY-session NFP leg, a strong US print against a Canadian jobs miss, carried into the week. Monday's London dip to the 1.4077 monday low held above the 38.2% retracement of that leg, and NY recovered to 1.4137 as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes, leaving equal highs with Friday's 1.41375. Price is now compressing between the 1.4111 asia low and 1.4128 asia high, just above ema20 (1.4116) and the weekly open, with RSI(14) cooled from 70 to 55 and ATR(14) down to 9.7 pips.
Support: 1.41157, 1.41111, 1.40774
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41375
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.41375 equal highs extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4111 asia low and ema20 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4077 monday low
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a CAD-side risk to the structure
Higher low at 1.4077, consolidating in a 1.4077–1.4138 band.
The rally from Thursday's 1.3943 low gathered pace on Friday's US NFP beat and Canadian jobs miss, and carried USDCAD to a 1.4138 week high. Monday's London dip held at 1.4077, a shallow ~30% retracement of the Thu-Fri rally fib. The NY session then reclaimed 1.4136 as oil slid on US-Iran deal bets, weighing on CAD. Since then price has drifted into a consolidation under the range top: the Asian session was capped at the 1.4128 asia high, and price now sits on the weekly open and EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.41147, 1.40774, 1.40524
Resistance: 1.41283, 1.41375
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4137 range top extends the uptrend into fresh week highs
A break of the weekly open at 1.4115 and then the monday low at 1.4077 would print a lower low and expose the pre-nfp base near 1.4052, just above the 38.2% rally fib at 1.4063
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (Waller at 09:00 UTC) and BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh lows in crude on US-Iran headlines have been the main CAD driver behind the Monday NY reversal
04:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling into range · RSI 52 · price 1.41197
Tight 1.4111–1.4137 range beneath a double-top shelf, higher lows intact.
The 1.3930–1.4138 rally, driven by Friday's US NFP beat against a Canadian jobs miss, has stalled. Friday's high and Monday's NY-session peak, both near 1.4137, now form a double-top shelf over a tight range. Monday's London dip to the monday low at 1.4077 held above the 38.2% retracement of the rally and was fully recovered in NY as crude slid to August lows, so the higher-low line from the pre-NFP base stays intact. In Asia, price sits marginally above EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 52, and momentum has faded ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4111 asia low would complete the double top and expose the 1.4077 monday low
H1 close above the 1.4137 double top breaks the range top, with the 1.4150 round number next
Loss of the 1.4052 nfp base breaks the higher-low line and the post-NFP structure
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC, ~9.5h) could materially shift this read; BoC Summary of Deliberations follows at 18:30 UTC
Higher lows intact; tight consolidation 1.4111–1.4137 under the week high.
USD/CAD reversed the midweek dip near 1.3930 with a Thursday–Friday impulse to the 1.4137 week high. The Friday leg came on the US payrolls beat against a Canadian jobs miss, and oil weakness on US-Iran deal headlines has kept CAD offered even as the dollar softened. Monday's London selloff held at the 1.4077 monday low, a shallow pullback above the 38.2% retracement of the impulse, before the NY open lifted price back to the week high, where it was capped a second time; price now sits just above EMA(20) between the 1.4111 asia low and the 1.4128 asia high, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 week high resumes the uptrend and breaks the two-touch cap
Failure to hold the 1.4111 asia low exposes the 1.4077 monday low and the higher-lows trendline
A break below the 1.4052 pre-nfp low would retrace past 38.2% of the impulse and shift the structure
A push through the 1.4128 asia high would retest the week high
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC is a CAD-side risk for the consolidation
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the week high · RSI 59 · price 1.41228
Higher lows intact; flat cap at 1.4136-37, consolidating above the weekly open.
USD/CAD has climbed roughly 200 pips from Wednesday's 1.3929 low, with the decisive leg on Friday's 13:30 UTC jobs releases (US NFP 165K beat against Canada's -4.7K miss) carrying it to a 1.4137 week high. Monday gapped below Friday's close at the open and slid to a 1.4077 Monday low through London, before NY hours retraced the dip as oil fell, stalling at 1.4136 just under the week high. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 1.4116 and the 1.4110 weekly open with RSI(14) near 59, and the series of higher lows since Thursday's session remains intact.
Support: 1.4116, 1.4110, 1.4077
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 week high breaks the flat cap and extends the higher-lows sequence
Rejection again at 1.4129-37, back above the fri close level, followed by a loss of the ema20 and weekly open at 1.4110, shifts the read to consolidation
Failure to hold the 1.4077 monday low completes a double-top structure under 1.4137 and breaks the higher-lows trendline
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11.5h) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Further oil weakness on US-Iran headlines has been driving CAD-specific moves, even on softer-USD days
Higher lows since Wednesday, 1.4077–1.4137 range since Friday.
The rally from Wednesday's 1.3929 low ran through Thursday's NY session and extended to 1.4137 after Friday's split jobs data, with strong US payrolls against a 4.7K Canadian job loss. Since then price has compressed beneath a range top tested three times. Monday's London dip to the 1.4077 monday low held inside the shallow 23.6–38.2% fib band, and the NY session reversed it even as the dollar softened, with falling crude weighing on CAD. Price sits just above the ema20 at 1.4114 with RSI(14) near 59, cooled from Friday's overbought readings, while the rising lows from the 1.4052 pre-nfp low remain intact.
Support: 1.4114, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 range top extends the uptrend beyond Friday's high
Sustained trade below the ema20 at 1.4114 shifts the read toward the lower half of the range
Failure at the 1.4077 monday low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.4052 pre-nfp low near the 38.2% fib
US CPI (13:30 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (18:30 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Friday's split jobs data (US NFP beat, Canada job losses) drove the higher-low sequence from Thursday's 1.3942 base to the 1.4137 week high, and Monday's NY-session rebound from the 1.4077 Monday low came as CAD tracked falling oil. That retest stalled a pip short of the week high, and price is now rotating around EMA(20) near 1.4112 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, which leaves consolidation beneath a flat cap and above a rising higher-lows line. Monday's pullback retraced only about 30% of the Thursday–Friday impulse, and the pre-NFP low at 1.4052 sits just above the 38.2% level.
Support: 1.4112, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4137 week high breaks the double cap and opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4077 Monday low breaks the higher-lows line and leaves the pre-NFP low at 1.4052 exposed
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 1.4112 shifts the read from consolidation toward a deeper retracement of the impulse
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations at 18:30 UTC and WTI direction are the CAD-side risks to the structure