22:03 UTC
Uptrend resuming, testing October high · RSI 67 · price 1.42507
Higher low at 1.3929 above the August base; descending channel from the October high broken.
USDCAD set a higher low at 1.3929 on 4 Nov, above the August 1.3732 base. The past week's rally then broke the descending channel from the October high and put price back above both EMAs, with EMA(20) re-crossing above an again-rising EMA(50). The drivers were divergent jobs data (a strong US NFP against a Canada jobs miss), softer oil and Tuesday's hot US CPI. Price now sits roughly 50 pips under the 1.4299 October high, about 87% of the Oct–Nov drop retraced, with RSI at 67 and ATR expanding to 68 pips.
Support: 1.4140, 1.40657, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.42993, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- D1 close above the 1.4299 oct high confirms a higher-high and opens the path toward the 1.4400 round number
- Rejection at the oct high leaves a double top risk, with the 1.4140 channel top as the first support
- Daily close back below the ema50 at 1.4066 undermines the breakout; a break of the 1.3929 nov low would breach the higher-low line
- RSI above 70 would mark the first overbought reading of this leg
- Friday US PPI and Monday's Canada CPI could materially shift this read