Higher highs into YTD top, now consolidating below 1.40.
USDCAD pushed to fresh YTD highs near 1.4023 into Thursday's NY session as hot US PPI reinforced higher-for-longer Fed pricing and soft Oil weighed on the Loonie. The spike was rejected and price pulled back to 1.3953 before stabilising, now grinding sideways just under the 1.40 congestion band while holding above EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s, in step with the slower momentum near the top.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3980, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion band toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3953 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3900 weekly low
Retail Sales + FOMC Jun 17 could materially shift this read
USD/CAD pressed to a fresh YTD high at 1.4023 in the NY session yesterday after the hot US PPI print reinforced higher-for-longer Fed pricing and soft Oil weighed on CAD. The pair was rejected there and pulled back to 1.3953 before recovering to retest the 1.40 area, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling back into the mid-50s. Higher-lows off the 1.3915 base remain intact while supply caps at 1.4023.
Support: 1.3953, 1.39154, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40235 ytd high opens the 1.40-1.41 congestion band
Failure to hold 1.3953 swing low confirms a lower-low
FOMC and US Retail Sales Jun 17 could materially shift this read