USDCAD is in a multi-month uptrend, carving fresh YTD highs at 1.40235 as it presses the 1.40-1.41 congestion band. The leg up off the early-April 1.358 low accelerated after Wednesday's BoC hold at 2.25%, with soft oil and a hot US PPI print stacking against the loonie. RSI is elevated near 66 and price sits well above a rising EMA(50), but the daily candle is testing major prior resistance.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3880
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4140
What it said to watch
D1 close above 1.41400 extends the path toward BBH's upside target
Failure to hold 1.39000 weekly low signals a momentum stall
FOMC Jun 17 18:00 UTC could materially shift the read
USDCAD has trended higher since the early-April low near 1.3550, printing a fresh chain of higher highs into YTD highs around 1.4000 — the move underpinned by soft Oil, a patient BoC hold at 2.25% and hot US PPI. Price sits above a rising EMA(50), but the latest weekly leg stalled at 1.40235 with daily RSI in overbought territory, the first sign of slowing momentum into the 1.40-1.41 congestion band. Demand has stepped in around 1.3900 on the post-BoC probe.
Support: 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4000, 1.4140
What it said to watch
D1 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4140
Failure to hold 1.3900 weekly low confirms a lower high
FOMC and US Retail Sales Jun 17 could materially shift this read