Flat range 1.4196–1.4299 after higher-high/higher-low advance.
The late-September higher-high/higher-low advance from below 1.40 has stalled into a 1.4196–1.4299 range since early October. The range top, the 18-month high, has now capped three times; the latest spike on the hot US CPI beat was rejected back to 1.4237. Price has slipped back under the ema20 near 1.4245 and is sitting on EMA(50). The range floor around 1.4206 already gave way once to a 1.4196 swing low before being reclaimed. ATR(14) near 24 pips points to a compressed regime under a well-tested cap.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4196, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4299 range top / 1.4300 handle invalidates the range read and opens fresh highs
Failure to hold the 1.4206 range floor and the 1.4196 swing low exposes the 1.4154 prior low and the 61.8% fib of the rally
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT; a dovish lean could test the range top
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Two-week range 1.4196–1.4300 after higher-high run from 1.3920.
Higher highs and higher lows from 1.3920 carried the pair into a 1.4196–1.4300 range over the past two weeks, with the range top at the 1.4299 18-month high capping three times and the range low near 1.4200 absorbing four dips. The hot US core CPI revived Fed-hike pricing and lifted price about 75 pips off the range low back toward the cap. ATR(14) near 23 pips is picking up from mid-range compression, and price sits above the ema20 near 1.4248 and the EMA50.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4299
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4299 range top would mark a range break into fresh 18-month highs
Failure back below the ema20 near 1.4248 keeps the range intact and returns focus to the 1.4200 range low
A break below the 1.4200 range low would turn the repeated range top caps into a topping structure and expose the 1.4154 swing low, the origin of the sep-30 swing
BoC Macklem (Thu 04:15 GMT) and US Retail Sales/PPI (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Canada September CPI on Oct 19 is the next scheduled CAD-side risk to the range
13:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling into range · RSI 38 · price 1.42139
2-week range 1.4200–1.4298 with lower highs pressing the floor.
The September advance from 1.3920 has stalled into a range between the 1.4200 range floor and the 1.4293/1.4298 range high, a twin peak, with a lower high at 1.4287 since. Price now sits near the floor and the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4154 swing low to 1.4298 leg, below flattening EMA20 and EMA50, while ATR(14) has eased to about 19 pips. The hot US core CPI beat has lifted USD, but follow-through on this pair has been limited so far, with oil near one-month highs offsetting the move on the CAD side.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4154, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.4200 range floor would confirm the double top and open the 1.4154 swing low, then the 1.4100 round number
A recovery above 1.4250 mid-range puts the lower-high trendline at 1.4287 back in play, and a break above the 1.4298 range high would end the range read
Bowman and the Beige Book today, then US PPI and retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
Macklem speaks Fri Oct 16, 04:15 UTC, with BoC hike pricing a CAD-side risk to the range floor
09:04 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling into range low · RSI 39 · price 1.42139
1.4200–1.4298 range after 1.3920 rally; lower high at 1.4287.
The rally from 1.3920 stalled in early October. Since then price has held a roughly 100-pip range between the 1.4200 range floor and the 1.4298 range top, the 18-month high set after Canada's -68.3K jobs miss. A lower high at 1.4287 was followed by a slide back to the range floor as the USD corrected into US CPI, with a brief dip to 1.4196 that sits near the 61.8% fib of the 1.4154–1.4298 leg. Price is trading below the flattening ema20/50 cluster near 1.4245, and ATR(14) around 18 pips shows a compressed regime against the earlier trend leg.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4154, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
US CPI today 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read, with a soft core print raising the risk of extension toward the 1.4130 area
H4 close below the 1.4196 swing low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4154 swing low, then the 1.4133 sep base
Holding back inside the range and recovering the ema20/50 near 1.4245 keeps the range read intact
H4 close above the 1.4287 lower high and the 1.4298 range top would resume the higher-high sequence
Macklem speech Fri and Canada CPI Mon are follow-on risks to the range structure
05:04 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling into range floor · RSI 36 · price 1.42016
Two-week range 1.4200-1.4298 after rally; lower high at 1.4287, floor under pressure.
The rally from 1.3920 stalled into a two-week range under the 1.4298 range top. Three tests there have now printed a lower high at 1.4287, and price has slipped back below both EMAs to sit on the 1.4200 range floor. The pullback reflects broad USD correction from its 18-month high rather than CAD strength, with Canada's -68.3K jobs miss still a weight on the loonie. ATR(14) near 19 pips shows a contained regime; a break of the floor would complete a triple top and expose the 1.4154 swing low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the rally.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4154, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4200 range floor confirms the triple top and opens the 1.4154 swing low, then the 1.4100 round number
Reclaim of the ema50 near 1.4245 returns price to mid-range and weakens the breakdown read
H4 close above the 1.4287 lower high and 1.4298 range top would resume the uptrend structure
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a hot core print points back toward the mid-1.42s
2-week range 1.4203–1.4298; lower high at 1.4287, price back at range floor.
The September uptrend from 1.3920 has given way to a two-week range, with supply capping twice at the 1.4293/1.4298 range top, the 18-month high, and demand absorbing four tests of the 1.4203 range floor. The pullback from the 1.4287 lower high has taken price below a flattening ema20 and EMA50 and into the 50–61.8% fib zone of the 1.4154 swing low to 1.4298 rally, as a softer USD into CPI offsets CAD weakness after the -68.3K jobs miss. ATR(14) near 18 pips is moderate rather than compressed, so the range edges remain the reference.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4154, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4245, 1.4287, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4203 range floor completes a double top and exposes the 1.4154 swing low, with the 1.41 round number below
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.4245 and then the 1.4287 lower high puts the 1.4298 range top back in play
US CPI today at 12:30 UTC: a core print at or above 0.3% m/m could materially shift this read toward the range top, a soft core toward 1.41
Macklem at 06:05 UTC: dovish pushback on December hike pricing would undercut CAD ahead of CPI