USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.42183
Lower-high chain since the 1.4299 post-CPI peak, CPI move almost fully retraced.
The hot US CPI spike to 1.4299 during NY hours has faded all session. A lower-highs trendline has carried price back under the London high at 1.4223, erasing about 85% of the cpi spike. Early Asia is pressing toward the pre-CPI low at 1.4204, with RSI(14) near 23 and the Asian low at 1.4196 just beneath.
Support: 1.4204, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4239, 1.4260
What it said to watch
A close below 1.4204 pre-CPI low and the 1.4196 Asian low would fully reverse the CPI move and open the 1.4200 handle
Recovery back above the 1.4223 London high and the 1.4239 swing high would break the lower-highs chain
Reclaim of the 1.4260 area (cpi spike 61.8%) would put the post-CPI fade in question
BoC Macklem speech Thu 04:15 GMT could materially shift this read
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday are the next USD catalyst
Lower highs since 1.4299 rejection; testing pre-CPI breakout level.
Hot US CPI lifted USDCAD from 1.4204 to the 1.4299 cpi high at 12:30 UTC, where the 1.4300 handle drew a rejection. NY then built a lower-high chain back to the 78.6% cpi fib retrace. Price sits on the 1.4223 pre-cpi high into the early Asia session, RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4204, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4223 pre-cpi high exposes the 1.4204 cpi bar low and the 1.4196 asia low
Reclaim of the 1.4239 lower high and the descending line breaks the NY lower-high sequence
BoC Macklem speaks 04:15 GMT Thursday, about five hours out, and could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday are the next major risk for the cpi high at 1.4299
Lower highs since 1.4299 CPI high, now testing pre-CPI levels.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4204 cpi low to 1.4299 at 12:30 UTC. Price was rejected just under the 18-month high and has faded through NY into early Asia on a chain of lower highs. It now sits on the pre-CPI london high and 78.6% fib near 1.4223, with RSI(14) at 31 and the 1.4230 prior low already broken.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4204, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4240
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4223 london high exposes the 1.4204 cpi low and the 1.4200 round number, a full unwind of the CPI spike
A recovery above the 1.4230 prior low and the 61.8% fib at 1.4240, with a break of the lower-highs trendline, ends the fade structure
BoC's Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT; a dovish tone could materially shift this read
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster Thu 12:30 UTC is the next major volatility risk
Lower highs off the 1.4299 CPI high, basing near 1.4230.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD from 1.4204 to a 1.4299 cpi high. Price was rejected at the 1.4300 handle, and NY hours then unwound about 70 pips in a lower-high sequence, retracing most of the CPI spike. Price is now below the 61.8% fib at 1.4240 and flat near the 1.4230 session low into the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4299
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4230 session low exposes the 1.4223 pre-cpi high, then the 1.4200 round number.
An M15 close back above the 61.8% fib at 1.4240 would stall the post-CPI unwind.
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT and could materially shift this read. US PPI and Retail Sales follow at 12:30 UTC Thu, with the 1.4299 cpi high as the reference.
Lower highs and lower lows off the 1.4299 rejection; ~73% of the CPI spike retraced.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC drove a ~96-pip CPI spike from the 1.4204 cpi origin to 1.4299. Supply capped it just under the 1.4300 handle, and NY ground out lower highs back through fib 61.8 to a 1.4230 session low. Price is now basing just below fib 61.8 (1.4240) into the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 37 and ranges compressing.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4223, 1.4204
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Close back above fib 61.8 at 1.4240 and the 1.4248 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4230 session low exposes the pre-cpi high at 1.4223 and the 1.4204 cpi origin
BoC Macklem speech Thu 04:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 1.4299 to 1.4230; tentative break above the fade trendline.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC drove USD/CAD from the 1.4204 pre-CPI low to a 1.4299 CPI high, where it was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle. NY hours then faded the move in a lower-high chain to a 1.4230 session low. In thin post-NY trade price is back at the 1.4240 fib 61.8 and poking above the fade trendline.
Support: 1.42295, 1.42231, 1.42035
Resistance: 1.42401, 1.42482, 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4248 lower high breaks the fade structure
Failure to hold the 1.4230 session low exposes the 1.4223 london high, then the 1.4204 pre-cpi low
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT during the Asia session, high-impact for CAD
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could reopen the 1.4299 cpi high
22:02 UTC
Post-CPI fade, early Asia bounce · RSI 41 · price 1.42384
Lower highs off 1.4299 day high, 61.8% retracement tested.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD about 54 pips in one bar, and the pair stalled at a 1.4299 day high. That was a rejection just under the 1.4300 handle. NY then faded the move in a chain of lower highs down to a 1.4230 session low, below the 61.8% fib of the CPI rally. Early Asia is nudging back above that lower-high line toward the 1.4242 swing high on thin post-rollover trade, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4222
Resistance: 1.4242, 1.4248, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4242 swing high and the 1.4248 50% fib would turn the NY lower-high line into a false read
Break of the 1.4230 session low exposes the 1.4222 pre-CPI high, where the CPI breakout would be fully retested
BoC's Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT, roughly 6h out; a dovish tone could materially shift this read back toward the day high
Lower-high chain retracing the CPI spike, now at 61.8–78.6%.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4204 pre-CPI low to a 1.4299 session high. Price was rejected right at the 18-month high, and NY hours bled out in a steady lower-high sequence back to 1.4230. That leaves price between the 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of the spike, with the 1.4223 pre-CPI high just below in thin post-NY trade and RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4204
Resistance: 1.4242, 1.4257, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4223 pre-CPI high puts price back inside the pre-data range, with the 1.4204 pre-CPI low next
Recovery above the 1.4242 swing high breaks the lower-high chain, and the 1.4257 lower high is the next cap
Session high at 1.4299 (18-month high) remains the rejection point for any renewed USD bid
BoC Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT and could materially shift this read; the US PPI/retail sales cluster follows at 12:30 UTC
Lower-high chain since post-CPI high, ~70% of spike retraced.
The 12:30 UTC US CPI beat lifted USDCAD about 96 pips to the cpi high at 1.42993, just through the 1.4298 18-month high, before a rejection there. NY hours then printed a steady lower-high sequence that has unwound about 70% of the spike, leaving 1.4232 into the post-NY close. The pre-CPI high at 1.4223 sits just below, with RSI(14) near 26 and ranges compressing to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.42231, 1.42035
Resistance: 1.42423, 1.4258, 1.42993
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4223 pre-CPI high puts the cpi bar low at 1.42035 and the 1.4200 handle in play
A close above the 1.4242 lower high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 1.4258 swing high
Recovery above the 1.4299 cpi high would void the rejection read
BoC Macklem speaks Thursday 04:15 GMT, within the coming Asia session; a dovish lean could reverse the fade
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, ~70% of CPI leg retraced.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT drove USD/CAD from 1.4204 to a 1.4299 cpi high, with a rejection at the 1.4300 handle near the 18-month high. NY hours have since unwound about 70% of that leg in a chain of lower highs. Price sits below the 61.8% retrace (~1.4240) and both EMAs, RSI(14) near 27, with the pre-CPI high at 1.4223 the next reference.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4200, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4242, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4242 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the pre-CPI high at 1.4223 exposes the 1.4200 round number and the Asian low at 1.4196
A return to the 1.4300 cpi high would put the rejection back in question
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT and could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend since CPI spike high, RSI near oversold · RSI 29 · price 1.42347
Lower-high chain off 1.4299, fading the CPI rally into late NY.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove a ~95-pip spike to a 1.4299 cpi high, just through the 1.4298 18-month high. Since then the NY session has faded in a steady lower-high chain, retracing past the 61.8% fib of the CPI rally to a fresh session low at 1.4234 with RSI(14) near 29. The pre-cpi high at 1.4223 is the next reference below, then the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4234, 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4242, 1.4258, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4242 lower high and the 1.4258 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4223 pre-cpi high exposes the 1.4200 round number and the CPI-bar low
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT (~7h) and could materially shift CAD pricing
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 GMT, with a retest of the 1.4299 cpi high possible on hot prints
Lower-high/lower-low sequence retracing the CPI spike, now near 61.8%.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT spiked USD/CAD from 1.4204 to 1.4299, but the pair was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle and has bled lower through NY hours in a steady lower-high chain. Late NY, price is pressing the 61.8% retrace near 1.4240 and sits 2 pips above the 1.4235 post-CPI session low, with RSI(14) near 31 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.42353, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42423, 1.42514, 1.4258
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4235 session low exposes the 1.4223 pre-CPI high and the 78.6% retrace just above it
Recovery above the 1.4242 minor high, then the 50% fib at 1.4251 and the 1.4258 lower high, would break the post-CPI lower-high sequence
BoC's Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT, about 7.5h away; a dovish lean could reverse the CAD side of this fade
Lower highs and lower lows off the cpi high; price at 61.8% retracement.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a 96-pip spike from the 1.4204 cpi low to the 1.4299 cpi high. Rejection there was followed by a steady NY-session bleed of lower highs that has retraced to the 61.8% fib near 1.4240, with RSI(14) near 30. Late NY, after London close, price is pressing the descending trendline off the high, with the 1.4235 ny low the nearest floor.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4223, 1.4204
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4263, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.4251 fib 50% would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 1.4263 fib 38.2%
Failure to hold the 1.4235 ny low opens the pre-cpi high at 1.4223, then the 1.4204 cpi low, a full retrace of the CPI move
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT, about 8h out, and could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT; a hot print would put the 1.4299 cpi high back in play
Rejection at 1.4299 CPI high, lower highs and lower lows through NY.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CAD about 96 pips to the 1.4299 CPI high, at the 18-month peak, where it was rejected. Since then, NY hours have printed steady lower highs and pulled price back to the 1.4235 NY low, below the 61.8% fib at 1.4240, with RSI(14) near 24. The pre-CPI high at 1.4223, which lines up with the 78.6% retracement, is the next reference below.
Support: 1.42353, 1.42231, 1.42035
Resistance: 1.42401, 1.4258, 1.42993
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.4258 lower high breaks the post-CPI chain of lower highs
Close below the 1.4223 pre-CPI high puts the 1.4204 CPI bar low in play and erases the release move
Macklem speech Thu 04:15 GMT and US PPI/retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 1.4299 rejection.
The hot US core CPI print drove a near 90-pip spike from the NY open to the 1.4299 CPI high, but the 1.4300 handle rejected it. Price has since slid through NY hours along a descending trendline of lower highs, last at 1.4248, and now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low-to-CPI-high rally at 1.4236 with RSI(14) near 32. The pre-CPI London high at 1.4223 is the next shelf below.
Support: 1.4236, 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4260, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.4236 exposes the London high at 1.4223, then the 1.4200 round number
A reclaim of the 1.4248 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain, with the 38.2% fib at 1.4260 next
BoC's Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT during the Asia session; a dovish tone could put the 1.4299 CPI high back in play
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI / Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 post-CPI high, ~55% retraced.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove a ~96-pip spike from 1.4204 to the 1.4299 cpi high, which was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle. NY has since stair-stepped lower beneath a falling trendline, retracing about 55% of the move. Late in the NY session, price sits on the EMA50 near 1.4245, just above the 1.4243 session low and the 61.8% fib at 1.4240, with the 50% fib at 1.4251 and EMA20 near 1.4255 overhead.
Support: 1.42428, 1.42401, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42514, 1.4258, 1.42993
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the falling trendline and the 1.4258 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4240 exposes the 1.4223 london high, the pre-CPI range top
A renewed push through the 1.4299 cpi high would bring the 1.4300 handle back into play
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT, followed by the US PPI/Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 GMT; either could reset this structure
Lower-high sequence under falling trendline after CPI breakout.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the Asian and London range. It drove a ~96-pip leg from the 1.4204 CPI low to the 1.4299 CPI high, where it was rejected just under the 18-month high. Late in the NY session price has retraced steadily under a falling trendline and now sits at the 61.8% fib near 1.4240, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at ~44.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4223, 1.4204
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258, 1.4299
What it said to watch
A close above the trendline and the 1.4258 lower high breaks the post-CPI fade sequence
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4240 exposes the pre-cpi high at 1.4223, then the cpi low at 1.4204
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT and could materially shift this read
The US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at Thu 12:30 GMT is the next volatility event
19:16 UTC
Post-CPI spike, fading through NY · RSI 40 · price 1.4246
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299 session high.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT broke the 1.4196–1.4223 Asia/London range and drove USDCAD to a 1.4299 session high, just under the 1.4298 18-month high, where it was rejected. Price has since slid through NY hours on a chain of lower highs below the descending trendline and now sits at 1.4246. That puts it between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the CPI leg and right on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4223, 1.4204
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4263, 1.4299
What it said to watch
A close below 1.4240 (61.8% fib) brings the pre-CPI london high at 1.4223 into view
Losing the 1.4204 cpi bar low would fully unwind the CPI breakout
A break of the descending trendline plus a close above the 1.4258 lower high and the 1.4263 38.2% fib would end the lower-high chain
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT; a dovish tone could reopen the 1.4299 session high
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the 1.4299 CPI spike high.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/CAD about 96 pips from the 1.4204 cpi low to the 1.4299 cpi high, where it was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle. NY hours have since printed lower highs under a falling trendline. Price has slipped below the 50% fib to 1.4246, sitting on the EMA50 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4223, 1.4204
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4258, 1.4299
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4258 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the post-CPI lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4240 exposes the 1.4223 pre-cpi high
A loss of 1.4223 puts the 1.4204 cpi low back in play and unwinds most of the CPI leg
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT; a shift in BoC pricing during the Asia session could reset this read
Lower-high sequence from 1.4299, holding the 50% retrace.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT drove the cpi leg from 1.4204 to a 1.4299 cpi high, with a rejection just shy of the 1.4300 handle. NY hours have since printed steady lower highs under the fade trendline, back to the 50% retrace near 1.4251. RSI(14) sits near 44, price is under the EMA20 and just above the EMA50, and the ny low at 1.4248 is the immediate floor.
Support: 1.42479, 1.42401, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.42627, 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 1.4248 exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.4240, then the pre-cpi high at 1.4223
Reclaim of the 1.4258 lower high and the fade trendline breaks the post-CPI sequence, with the fib 38.2 at 1.4263 next
cpi high at 1.4299, near the 1.4300 handle and 18-month high, remains the cap on this leg
Macklem's Thursday 04:15 GMT remarks and the 12:30 GMT US PPI/retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Asia/London range broken higher on CPI, rejected at 1.4300, lower-high pullback to the 50% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke USD/CAD out of the 1.4196–1.4223 Asia/London range. The run stalled at a 1.4299 session high, just under the 1.4300 handle and the 18-month high. NY hours have since carved a sequence of lower highs along a falling trendline, with price now testing the 50% fib of the CPI leg at 1.4250 and RSI(14) back to neutral near 47.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4240, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4263, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 1.4250 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4240, then the pre-CPI london high at 1.4223
Close above the 1.4258 lower high and the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Session high at 1.4299 (1.4300 handle / 18-month high) remains the cap; a reclaim reopens the top of the move
Macklem speech (Thu 04:15 GMT) and US PPI/retail sales (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Post-CPI spike, NY pullback in progress · RSI 48 · price 1.42559
Lower highs off 1.4299 session high, holding 50% fib.
The US CPI beat at 12:30 GMT broke USD/CAD out of the Asian range and through the London high at 1.4223. The pair ran from 1.4204 to a 1.4299 session high, just under the 18-month high flagged in the digest. Late NY has printed a chain of lower highs along a lower-high line, and the retrace stalled at the 50% fib near 1.4251. Price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42401, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42627, 1.42781, 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 and the lower-high line eases the pullback read; a reclaim of the 1.4278 lower high reopens the session high at 1.4299
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.4251 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4240, then the London high at 1.4223 as the breakout retest
Beige Book (18:00 GMT) wording on prices and wages could shift this read
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT; US PPI and retail sales follow at 12:30 GMT, both high-impact for this pair
Breakout above Asian/London range, now a 50% retracement of the CPI leg.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT broke USD/CAD out of the Asian/London range, and the move ran from 1.4204 to a session high at 1.4299, just under the 1.4300 handle and the 18-month high. Supply capped that level, and price has slid in a lower-high sequence along a descending trendline, with the fade low at 1.4251 sitting on the 50% fib of the CPI leg. RSI(14) is near 34 and price is below EMA20 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.42507, 1.42401, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42632, 1.42781, 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fade low at 1.4251 opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4240
Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 and the 1.4278 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Deeper pullback to the pre-cpi high at 1.4223 would retest the breakout base
Fed Beige Book and US Budget Statement at 18:00 GMT, now, could shift the read
Retest of the session high at 1.4299 brings the 1.4300 handle back into focus
17:46 UTC
Post-CPI spike, pulling back in late NY · RSI 46 · price 1.42526
Lower highs since the 1.4299 rejection, now testing 50% fib.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke the overnight 1.4196–1.4223 range with a 60-pip bar. That cleared the pre-cpi high and ran to a 1.4299 cpi high just under the 1.4300 handle before rejection. Since then a lower-high sequence along the descending trendline has retraced price to the 50% fib of the spike at 1.4251 after London close, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4240, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4278, 1.4299
What it said to watch
A close below the 50% fib at 1.4251 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4240, then the 1.4223 pre-cpi high
A close back above the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib at 1.4263 eases the pullback read, with the 1.4278 lower high above that
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift USD tone in the next bars, and Macklem's Thursday speech is the next CAD risk
A return to the 1.4299 cpi high, which sits at the 18-month high and the 1.4300 handle, would revive the breakout read
17:31 UTC
Post-CPI spike, fading from high · RSI 51 · price 1.42611
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299 peak, pullback inside the CPI breakout.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT drove a 60-pip breakout from the 1.4204 area to a 1.4299 CPI high, stalling at the 18-month high. Since then, NY hours have printed lower highs. Price is now back near the 38.2% fib at 1.4263, just under the ema20, with RSI(14) neutral around 51. The session low at 1.4258 is the nearest floor, with the fib 50% at 1.4251 and the ema50 near 1.4245 below.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4251, 1.4245
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4278, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4258 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the fib 50% at 1.4251 and the ema50 near 1.4245
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.4264 and the 1.4278 lower high breaks the fading-highs trendline
Retest of the 1.4299 CPI high / 1.4300 handle is where rejection or break gets decided
Fed Beige Book and US Budget Statement at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 14:00 GMT session high.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke the 1.4196–1.4223 Asian/London range and ran to a session high of 1.4299, where price was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle. A lower-high trendline has since pulled price back through the 1.4270 broken low to the 38.2% fib at 1.4262 after London close. The fib 50% at 1.4251 is the next support below.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 1.4251 deepens the CPI retracement toward the pre-cpi high at 1.4223
An M15 close back above the 1.4270 broken low and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the pullback, leaving the session high at 1.4299 and the 1.4300 handle as the cap
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT, the next CAD event risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 session high.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT broke USDCAD out of the 1.4196–1.4223 Asian/London range. The pair ran to a 1.4299 session high, just shy of the 1.4300 handle and the 18-month high, and has since printed lower highs through NY hours. After London close it is retesting the 1.4260 cpi close, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI leg, with the 50% level lining up with the 1.4251 post-cpi low.
Support: 1.4260, 1.42512, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42781, 1.42993
What it said to watch
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4278 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4251 post-cpi low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 1.4240 and the 1.4223 pre-cpi high
A return to the 1.4299 session high puts the 1.4300 handle back in play
Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT, a CAD event risk during the Asia session
16:31 UTC
Post-CPI impulse up, now pulling back · RSI 60 · price 1.42713
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 spike high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke USD/CAD out of the 1.4196–1.4223 Asia/London range. The pair ran to the 1.4299 cpi high and was rejected just shy of the 1.4300 handle and 18-month high. Since the 1.4290 lower high, NY hours have printed lower highs and lows into the 1.4270 recent low, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60 and the 38.2% cpi move fib sitting with EMA20 at 1.4264.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4264, 1.4251
Resistance: 1.4290, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4264 (ema20 / fib confluence) extends the pullback toward the 1.4251 50% fib
Close above the 1.4290 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.4299 cpi high / 1.4300 handle back in play
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift USD tone into the late NY session
BoC Macklem Thu 04:15 GMT is a high-impact CAD risk during Asia
16:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back · RSI 60 · price 1.42732
Impulsive breakout leg, lower highs off 1.4299 high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a ~96-pip breakout from the 1.4196–1.4223 Asian/London range. It stalled with a rejection at 1.4299, the 18m high just under the 1.4300 handle. Since then a flag-like pullback in NY hours has printed lower highs at the 1.4290 swing high and 1.4284, and RSI(14) has eased to ~60. Price is sitting on the 1.4272 pullback low, with the ema20 and 13:30 swing low converging near 1.4264 below.
Support: 1.42723, 1.42643, 1.42512
Resistance: 1.42836, 1.42895, 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4272 pullback low exposes the ema20 / swing low confluence at 1.4264 (38.2% fib)
Failure to hold 1.4251 (50% fib, post-CPI bar low) undercuts the breakout leg
M15 close above the 1.4284 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline, with the 1.4290 swing high and 1.4299 18m high above
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; Macklem Thu 04:15 GMT is the next CAD risk
16:02 UTC
Post-CPI impulse higher, now fading with lower highs · RSI 60 · price 1.42732
Spike to 1.4299 rejected; NY hours printing lower highs above the 1.4264 swing low.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of its range below the 1.4223 london high. The CPI impulse ran to a 1.4299 cpi high and was rejected just under the 1.4300 handle. NY hours have since printed lower highs at 1.4290 and 1.4284, and price is now at the 1.4273 pullback low, still above the 1.4264 swing low where ema20 and the 38.2% retracement sit.
Support: 1.4273, 1.4264, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4290, 1.4299
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4273 pullback low, then the 1.4264 swing low (ema20 / 38.2% of the CPI impulse), would deepen the retracement toward the 1.4223 london high
A close above the 1.4290 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4299 cpi high and the 1.4300 handle back in play
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
Post-spike pullback; lower high at 1.4290 below 1.4299 session high.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London high at 1.4223. The rally ran about 96 pips and was rejected at the 1.4299 session high, just under the 1.4300 round number and the 18-month high. NY session has since printed a lower high at 1.4290 and is sitting on the 1.4276 pullback low, near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooling to 63.
Support: 1.42759, 1.42643, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42895, 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4276 pullback low exposes the 1.4264 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib
Break above the 1.4290 lower high reopens the 1.4299 session high and the 1.4300 round number
Return below the 1.4223 london high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Macklem Thu 04:15 GMT could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Uptrend after CPI breakout, consolidating near highs · RSI 71 · price 1.42827
Impulse leg off 1.4204, tight 1.4276–1.4299 range under session high.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke USDCAD out of the 1.4196–1.4223 Asia/London range. The CPI leg ran 60 pips in one bar and extended to a session high of 1.4299, just under the 18-month high. Since 14:00 UTC price has held a 1.4276–1.4299 range mid-NY session, with the pullback low and the 1.4264 higher low intact and RSI(14) cooling to ~71.
Support: 1.42759, 1.42643, 1.42231
Resistance: 1.42993
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4299 session high clears the 18-month high and the 1.4300 handle
Failure to hold the 1.4276 pullback low exposes the 1.4264 higher low, which sits near the CPI leg fib 38.2%
Return below the 1.4223 pre-cpi high would mark a false break of the CPI move
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Macklem speaks Thu 04:15 GMT
Breakout from overnight range, shallow pullback holding above 23.6%.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT broke USD/CAD out of the 1.4196–1.4223 overnight range. The 60-pip impulse bar extended in early NY hours to a 1.4299 session high, just under the 18-month high. The pullback found demand at a 1.4276 swing low, right at the 23.6% level of the CPI leg fib, and price is now compressing below a 1.4286 lower high with RSI(14) cooled to ~68.
Support: 1.4276, 1.4264, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4286, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4299 session high clears the 18-month high and the 1.4300 handle
Failure to hold the 1.4276 swing low exposes the 1.4264 higher low and the 38.2% fib near 1.4263
Break below 1.4264 opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.4223 pre-CPI high
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Breakout from Asian range, tight post-spike consolidation.
The hot US core CPI beat lifted USD/CAD about 60 pips in the first hour of NY, clearing the Asian range and the 1.4223 prior high. Price was rejected at the 1.4299 session high, just under the 1.4300 psych handle and the 18-month high. The pullback low at 1.4276 held near the 23.6% fib, and RSI(14) is cooling from the low 80s to about 73.
Support: 1.4276, 1.4264, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4299, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4300 psych clears the 18-month high and extends the breakout
Loss of the 1.4276 pullback low exposes the 1.4264 cpi base and the 38.2% fib
A move back below the 1.4223 prior high would unwind the CPI breakout
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT, then Macklem Thu 04:15 GMT, could materially shift this read
Breakout from pre-CPI range, rejected under 1.4300, back below Tue high.
The US core CPI beat at 12:30 GMT broke USD/CAD out of its 1.4197–1.4223 Asian and London range, with the pre-CPI high giving way. The ~95-pip burst stalled at 1.4299, just under the 18m high at 1.4300, and two red bars have pulled price back below the Tue high at 1.4283. RSI(14) has cooled to ~69, and the 38.2% fib at 1.4264 lines up with the 13:15 GMT pullback low.
Support: 1.4264, 1.4251, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4283, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the Tue high at 1.4283 reopens the 18m high at 1.4300
A break of the 38.2% fib at 1.4264 exposes the 50% fib at 1.4251
A slide back to the pre-cpi high at 1.4223 would unwind most of the CPI breakout
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT is the next scheduled risk after Bowman
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted the pair about 60 pips off 1.4204. The move cleared the pre-CPI high at 1.4223 and Tuesday's 1.4283 prior high in early NY hours, with the first rejection at 1.4299, just under the 1.4300 18m high. RSI(14) is near 75, and post-CPI higher lows at 1.4251 and the 1.4264 swing low keep the impulse structure intact.
Support: 1.4283, 1.4264, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4300 18m high extends the breakout into fresh territory
A close back below the 1.4283 prior high reads as a false break and exposes the 1.4264 swing low
Loss of 1.4264 breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain; the 1.4251 area is the 50% fib, with the pre-cpi high at 1.4223 below
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Impulsive CPI breakout above London range, HH/HL chain.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke the 1.4202–1.4223 London range with a 60-pip bar. NY hours then extended the CPI leg to 1.4299, through Tuesday's 1.4283 prior high and into the 1.4300 18m high, with RSI(14) at 83 and well stretched. Below, the cpi bar high at 1.4264 and the fib 50% at 1.4251 define the pullback structure.
Support: 1.4283, 1.4264, 1.4251
Resistance: 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4283 prior high would mark the push into the 18m high as a false break
Sustained M15 closes above the 1.4300 18m high extend the breakout into fresh territory
A slip under the cpi bar high at 1.4264 exposes the CPI leg fib 50% at 1.4251
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Strong uptrend, stretched · RSI 84 · price 1.4297
Post-CPI breakout, HH/HL chain into 1.4300.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 55-pip breakout bar out of the 1.4196–1.4223 Asia-London range. The NY session then pushed through the 1.4283 prior high to tag 1.4299. RSI(14) near 84 is stretched as price presses the 1.4300 18m high.
Support: 1.4283, 1.4264, 1.4251
Resistance: 1.4300
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4300 18m high with RSI(14) above 80 opens a pullback toward the 1.4283 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4264 pullback low (near the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib) breaks the post-CPI HH/HL chain; 1.4251 is the 50% fib
Sustained M15 closes above 1.4300 would clear the 18m high
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CAD out of the 1.4196–1.4223 Asian low to London high range in a single 60-pip bar. The move stalled at a 1.4283 session high that matches Tuesday's peak, with two upper wicks there and RSI(14) near 76 in the first hour of NY. The 1.4251 CPI bar low sits on the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4223, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4283, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4283 session high opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4251 CPI bar low exposes the 1.4223 London high and the 50% of the cpi leg fib near 1.4243
A return below the 1.4223 London high puts the 1.4196 Asian low back in view and undoes the breakout read
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the post-CPI read
13:31 UTC
Impulsive uptrend after CPI, stalling below spike high · RSI 79 · price 1.42707
24h range broken higher; first pause under 1.4281 spike high.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CAD about 77 pips off 1.4204 in under an hour. That broke the 1.4196–1.4234 range top of the past day and set a spike high at 1.4281, just shy of Tuesday's 1.4283. RSI(14) is near 79 and price is holding 1.4270 in the first hour of NY, with the post-cpi low at 1.4251 lining up with the 38.2% fib of the move.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4234, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4281, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the post-cpi low 1.4251 (38.2% fib) exposes the range top at 1.4234
Close above the 1.4281 spike high and Tuesday's 1.4283 opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
A return below the london high at 1.4223 would turn the CPI move into a false break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the post-CPI read
Impulsive break of the 1.4196–1.4223 intraday range; now pressing session high.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 60-pip range break from the 1.4196 Asian low and the 1.4223 pre-CPI high. Price is now testing the 1.4269 session high in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 78 and the 1.4283 prior high and the 1.4300 18m high overhead. The 1.4251 post-CPI low marks the first pullback pivot, and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI impulse sits near 1.4244.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4223, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4269, 1.4283, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4283 prior high opens the 1.4300 18m high
Failure to hold the 1.4251 post-CPI low exposes the 50–61.8% retracement of the CPI impulse (1.4236–1.4229)
A slide back below the 1.4223 pre-CPI high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break and bring the 1.4200 round number back into view
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could test whether the CPI move holds through NY
Single-bar break of the Asia–London range, now at the post-CPI high.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT lifted USD/CAD out of its 1.4196–1.4223 range, bounded by the asian low and the London range top. The CPI leg ran roughly 60 pips in a single bar. Price is now pressing the 1.4269 cpi high early in NY hours with RSI(14) near 77. The 12:45 bar's 1.4251 pullback low is the first pivot, and Tuesday's 1.4283 prior high sits just above.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4223, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4269, 1.4283, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4251 pullback low keeps the CPI breakout intact; a drop back below the 1.4223 range top would mark a fade into the old range
An M15 close above the 1.4283 prior high opens the 1.4300 round number (18-month high area)
A return to the 1.4196 asian low would fully unwind the CPI leg
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or reverse the CPI move
12:31 UTC
Intraday higher lows since Asia, stalling at session high · RSI 52 · price 1.42148
HL chain 1.4196→1.4202→1.4208; 1.4223 session high rejected.
USD/CAD built higher lows from the 1.4196 asian low through London as the softer dollar faded, but the 1.4223 session high was rejected at 11:30 UTC as the USD consolidated into US CPI. Price now sits near 1.4215, just above the 50% fib of that Asia-to-session-high leg, with RSI(14) neutral at ~52 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.42081, 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42231, 1.4245
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is due on the next bar; a core surprise either way could override this intraday structure
M15 close below the 1.4208 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4200 range floor, then the 1.4196 asian low
M15 close above the 1.4223 session high reopens the 1.4245 prior high from Tuesday's NY session
12:16 UTC
Higher lows off Asian low, capped below 1.4223 · RSI 53 · price 1.42149
Higher-low chain from 1.4196; false break above Asian high rejected.
USDCAD has carved higher lows off the 1.4196 asian low as the USD stayed heavy after Williams' dovish remarks. London's late push cleared the 1.4221 Asian high but stalled at the 1.4223 london high and was rejected back to 1.4215. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53 with ATR under 5 pips, a compressed tape minutes before US CPI.
Support: 1.42081, 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42231, 1.4245
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker), 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read; core MoM vs 0.2% is the swing factor
M15 close above the 1.4223 london high voids the false break and exposes the 1.4245 prior high
Break of the 1.4208 swing low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 1.4200 round number and 1.4196 asian low back in play; the 50% asian low retrace sits near 1.4210
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, testing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.42202
London higher lows from 1.4196, pressing Asian high near 1.4220.
The London rally lifted price from the 1.4196 Asian low, and USD recovered early losses into the CPI countdown. Price is now pressing the Asian high at 1.4220, with the session high at 1.4222, after the 1.4208 swing low held during late London. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is about 4 pips, so ranges are tight ahead of the data.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4222 session high clears the Asian high and opens 1.4245, the prior high from Tuesday's NY open
Loss of the 1.4208 swing low and the London higher-low line breaks the intraday HL chain; the 1.4196 Asian low is next
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft core print as the path toward 1.4130
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 62 · price 1.42187
Higher-low chain through London, pressing range top.
After yesterday's dollar-led slide from the 1.4257 prior high, USD/CAD carved an Asian low at 1.4196 and has printed higher lows through London, the latest at 1.4208. The last bar is pressing the 1.4220 range top that capped late NY and the Asia open, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR(14) near 4 pips into US CPI.
Support: 1.42081, 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42344, 1.42569
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top clears the late-NY/Asia ceiling and opens the 1.4234 ny swing
Loss of the 1.4208 higher low and the rising trendline flattens the London structure; below the 1.4200 round number, the 1.4196 asian low is exposed
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (~75 min) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 14:55 GMT
10:46 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 53 · price 1.42116
Higher lows from 1.4196, lower highs since 1.4217 London high.
Asia printed a 1.4196 low before London lifted the pair through a higher-low sequence to a 1.4217 London high as the softer USD tone into CPI persisted. Highs have flattened since, with price compressing just above the 1.4210 pullback low and still under the 1.4220 range top that capped yesterday's NY session and early Asia.
Support: 1.4210, 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4220, 1.4260
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, two hours out, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4210 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4207 and the 1.4203 ny low
M15 close above the 1.4217 london high puts the 1.4220 range top in play; acceptance above it reopens the 1.4260 prior high
Break of the 1.4196 asian low would mark a fresh low for the window
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped under the Asian high.
London lifted USDCAD off the 1.4196 asian low on a softer USD into CPI, printing a session high at 1.4217 just under the 1.4221 asian high before easing. Price is at 1.4211, sitting on the latest higher low and a flat ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.4210, 1.4200, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4221
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4221 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.4210 higher low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4209 and 1.4200 psych
A break of the 1.4196 asian low would mark a lower low beneath the Asian range
10:16 UTC
Intraday higher lows from the Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 1.42136
London HH/HL chain off 1.4196, stalling below the 1.4217–1.4221 cap.
Asia faded from the 1.4221 Asian high to a 1.4196 Asian low as the USD pullback extended. London has built rising lows back toward 1.4217, but the last three bars are stalling under the London high, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 4 pips into US CPI.
Support: 1.4210, 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4221, 1.4260
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4221 Asian high clears the overnight cap and opens a path toward the 1.4260 prior high
Loss of the 1.4210 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes yesterday's 1.4203 NY low, then the 1.4196 Asian low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, in the NY session, could expand range well beyond the current ~4-pip ATR
09:47 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a 24h down leg · RSI 59 · price 1.42139
London higher lows, stalling below the overnight range top.
After yesterday's softer-USD slide from 1.4262 bottomed at the 1.4196 Asian low, London has stepped up in higher lows along the London trendline. Mid-session, the move is stalling at a 1.4217 session high just under the 1.4220 range top that capped late NY trade, which also sits near the 38.2% of the 24h drop. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) is about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.42079, 1.42022, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42167, 1.42206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top clears the overnight cap and the 38.2% retracement of the 24h drop
Break of the London trendline and the 1.4208 higher low puts the 1.4202 London low back in focus
Loss of the 1.4196 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence from 1.4262
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 1.42146
Higher-low chain since London open, pressing the overnight range top.
After Tuesday's slide from 1.4260 stalled at the 1.4203 prior low, Asia extended to a 1.4196 Asian low. London has since reversed it with a steady higher-low chain and a London HL at 1.4208. Price is back near 1.4215, under the 1.4221 Asian high, and RSI(14) is warm but not stretched, even with the softer-USD backdrop into US CPI.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4221 asian high breaks the overnight range and exposes the 1.4245 prior shelf
Loss of the 1.4208 london hl and the London trendline returns focus to the 1.4203 prior low and 1.4196 asian low
Failure at the 1.4221 asian high would mark a rejection at the overnight range top
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.42148
London leg up from Asian low, testing overnight range top.
London lifted the pair off the 1.4196 Asian low in a higher-low chain, with the 1.4208 pullback low holding, and price is now retesting the 1.4220 range top that capped late NY and early Asia. That comes after the softer-USD slide into US CPI, with RSI(14) firm near 67 and ATR(14) only ~4 pips.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4246
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 1.4246 breakdown area from yesterday's London sell-off
Loss of the 1.4208 pullback low and the rising trendline puts the 1.4203 prior low and 1.4196 Asian low back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with Bowman at 09:40 GMT ahead of it, could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows through London · RSI 67 · price 1.42148
Asia dip below prior low reclaimed; HH/HL chain into overnight range top.
Asia's slip under 1.4200 to the asian low at 1.4196 failed to hold. London has rebuilt above the prior low at 1.4203 in a higher-low chain along the London uptrend line, with the 1.4208 pullback low as the latest higher low. Price is pressing the 1.4215 london high just under the 1.4221 overnight high, which also lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the decline. The softer USD into US CPI is the driver, with RSI(14) firm near 67.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4203, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.42206, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4221 overnight high and the 38.2% decline fib opens the 1.4234 breakdown area
Loss of the London uptrend line and the 1.4208 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain; back below the 1.4203 prior low re-exposes the 1.4196 asian low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could add early USD volatility
08:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London bounce in progress · RSI 64 · price 1.42119
Higher lows off the 1.4196 Asian low, capped below the 1.4220 range top.
USD softness into US CPI drove yesterday's slide from 1.4266. The pair then extended to a 1.4196 Asia low. London has since put in higher lows at the 1.4202 pullback low and the 1.4208 london hl, retracing to the 61.8% of the Asian drop, with the 1.4215 london high capping just under yesterday's 1.4220 range top.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4202, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top (near the 1.4221 nine-day EMA) negates the Asian drop and reopens the mid-1.42s
Break of the 1.4202 pullback low ends the London HL chain and puts the 1.4196 asia low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT can materially shift this read; the digest flags 1.4130 on a soft print
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, stalling under the Asian high.
Yesterday's slide from 1.4260 into 1.4203 tracked the softer USD ahead of US CPI. Asia then extended to a 1.4196 Asian low before London built a higher-high/higher-low chain to a 1.4215 session high. That high was rejected just under the 1.4221 Asian high, which also capped yesterday's NY range. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, with price holding above the ema20 near 1.4205, the 50% retrace of the London leg.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4221 Asian high breaks back into yesterday's NY range
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4205 and the HL trendline ends the London HH/HL chain
Break of the 1.4196 Asian low resumes the two-day lower-low sequence
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Short-term rebound inside a post-selloff range · RSI 70 · price 1.4215
Higher lows off the Asian low, testing the late NY high.
Tuesday's slide from 1.4265 stalled at 1.4203 in NY. The pair has since ranged between the 1.4196 Asian low and the 1.4220 late NY high. London open built higher lows along rising support and price is now pressing the range top, with RSI(14) near 70 as USD softness extends after Williams' dovish remarks.
Support: 1.4202, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 late NY high breaks the range; 1.4245 Tuesday breakdown pt is next overhead
Loss of the 1.4202 london low breaks rising support and puts the 1.4196 asian low back in play
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asia low, capped by the London high.
USD/CAD slipped through 1.4200 in Asia as the USD paused into CPI, setting a 1.4196 Asia low. The London open push stalled with a rejection at the 1.4211 London high, near the 61.8% of the overnight drop from the 1.4221 Asia high. Price is back on Tuesday's 1.4203 low, with the 1.4199 higher low and the Asia low intact below.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4199, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4211, 1.4221
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with core m/m vs 0.2% as the swing number, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4211 London high reopens the 1.4221 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4199 higher low and 1.4196 Asia low breaks the rising support from the Asia low
Bowman at 09:40 GMT is the first USD headline risk of the London session
07:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, London bounce · RSI 64 · price 1.42095
Lower highs at 1.4220, recovering inside the Asian range.
The USD-led slide extended to a 1.4196 Asian low, undercutting yesterday's 1.4203 NY low, before London open lifted price to a 1.4211 london high at the 61.8% retracement of the overnight drop. Price sits back inside the 1.4196–1.4220 Asian range into US CPI, with the 1.4220 swing high still capping.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4211, 1.4220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4220 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4196 asian low confirms a fresh lower low
Rejection at the 1.4211 london high / 61.8% keeps the overnight downtrend intact
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4267; higher low at 1.4199 off the Asian low.
The USD-led slide carried USD/CAD through 1.4200 in Asia to a 1.4196 asian low. London open has pushed it back above Tuesday's NY prior low at 1.4203, a false break that leaves price at the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4221–1.4196 leg and just under the 1.4207 session high.
Support: 1.42034, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42072, 1.42114, 1.42206
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4200 and the prior low re-exposes the asian low at 1.4196
Close above the fib 61.8 at 1.4211 brings the asian high at 1.4221 into play
US CPI 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia selling stalling · RSI 58 · price 1.42047
Lower highs from 1.4221, higher low at 1.4199 off the 1.4196 Asia low.
USD/CAD broke yesterday's 1.4203 low in the Asia session and printed a 1.4196 Asia low as the USD correction ran into CPI. Ahead of London open, price has set a higher low at 1.4199 and is retesting the 1.4206 Asia pivot, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the decline from the 1.4221 NY range top. RSI(14) is 58 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.41986, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.42114, 1.42206
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4206 Asia pivot opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4211, then the 1.4221 NY range top
Losing the 1.4199 higher low and the 1.4196 Asia low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the ~1.4130 channel bottom
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Price has not yet reacted to Macklem's 06:05 UTC speech, and no readout is available
Lower highs through Asia, basing at the 1.4200 psych.
The Asia session broke below Tuesday's late 1.4206–1.4220 range as USD eased into CPI, setting a 1.4196 asia low. Early London is basing at the 1.4200 psych with RSI(14) near 45. The bounce has stalled below the 1.4206 lower high, which aligns with the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.4220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.4220 range top negates the overnight breakdown
Close below the 1.4196 asia low extends the sequence toward the 1.4130 channel bottom
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read, as could any Macklem readout
Lower highs from 1.4271; tight base at the Asian low, pressing a minor lower high.
USD/CAD carried Tuesday's NY-session slide through Asia as the USD correction extended into CPI, printing a session low at 1.4196 (asian low) before compressing in a 3-pip ATR range. Price is now sitting on EMA20 and testing the 1.4206 lower high into London open, with Macklem's remarks crossing now.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.42206, 1.42453
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4221 asian high in view, with 1.4245 breakdown pt above
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4196 asian low resumes the downtrend
Macklem (06:05 UTC) and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows intact, micro higher lows off the Asia low.
USD/CAD extended the USD-led slide from the 1.4271 London high. Tuesday's breakdown point was 1.4255, and price reached 1.4203 in NY. Asia then printed a lower low at the 1.4196 asia low before stabilising back above the 1.4200 round number. Price is now pinned just under the ema50 near 1.4206, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia downleg, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 2.7 pips heading into Macklem and the London open.
Support: 1.4200, 1.41964
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.42206, 1.42548
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4196 asia low confirms another lower low below the 1.4200 round number
M15 close above the ema50 and the 38.2% fib near 1.4206 opens a retest of the 1.4220 asian high
Close above the 1.4220 asian high invalidates the Asia downleg; the 1.4255 breakdown pt sits above
Macklem at 06:05 UTC: a dovish lean on the jobs miss could lift USD/CAD out of the compressed range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs overnight, compressing just above the Asian low.
Tuesday's slide from 1.4271 to 1.4203 tracked the broader USD pullback. After NY held a 1.4210–1.4220 range top, Asia broke lower and is now compressing at the 1.4200 round number. The 1.4206 lower high and the 1.4196 Asian low bracket the current bar, with ATR(14) under 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4196
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4220, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Macklem at 06:05 UTC: a dovish lean could lift price back through the 1.4206 lower high toward the 1.4220 range top
M15 close below the 1.4196 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above 1.4220 brings the 1.4234 fib 50% of Tuesday's slide into play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.41982
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below the late-NY range.
USDCAD slipped out of the late-NY 1.4205–1.4220 range during the Asia session, printing a lower high at 1.4206 and a session low at 1.4196 as the USD pullback extended ahead of US CPI. Price is now compressing just under the 1.4200 round number and pressing the descending line ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 43 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42063, 1.42206
What it said to watch
Macklem at 06:05 UTC: a dovish lean on the jobs miss could lift price back above the 1.4200 round number and the descending line
A close above the 1.4206 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4220 range top back in play
A break of the 1.4196 session low extends the Asia downtrend into London
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read for the NY session
Lower highs through Asia, compressing just under 1.4200.
Tuesday's NY-session slide from the 1.4270 London range took out 1.4203, and Asia extended it below the 1.4200 round number to a session low at 1.4196 as the dollar pullback continued. Lower highs at the 1.4221 asian high and the 1.4206 lower high define a descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR is only ~3.4 pips, so price is compressing into London open and Macklem.
Support: 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42063, 1.42206
What it said to watch
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.4200 round number and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4196 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery through the 1.4221 asian high, near the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's drop (~1.4225), neutralises the downtrend read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.41983
Lower highs from Asia high, below prior NY low.
Asia broke below Tuesday's prior NY low at 1.4203 and the 1.4200 round number as the dollar pullback extended. The Asia leg from the 1.4221 Asia high shows lower highs along a falling trendline. Price is holding just above the 1.4196 session low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42035, 1.42206
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4203 prior NY low negates the Asia range break
Failure to hold the 1.4196 session low extends the lower-low chain
Break of the Asia lower-highs trendline, then 1.4221 Asia high, flattens the downtrend read
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, range break below 1.4206.
The Asia session broke below the 1.4206–1.4220 range that held through late NY. It then printed a chain of lower highs and a fresh session low at 1.4196 as the USD pullback extended, leaving price just under the 1.4200 round number with RSI(14) near 31. ATR has compressed to about 3.4 pips ahead of Macklem and US CPI.
Support: 1.41964
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42063, 1.42206
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4206 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4196 session low extends the Asia leg lower
Reclaim of the 1.4220 range top negates the range break
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.41976
Lower highs and lower lows below the 1.4200 handle.
Asia session broke the NY afternoon range low near 1.4203 and slipped through the 1.4200 round number, with lower highs stepping down from the 1.4221 range top to a fresh session low at 1.4197. The drift extends Tuesday's USD pullback ahead of US CPI; RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.4197
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42063, 1.42206
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4206 lower high would negate the Asia breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4197 session low extends the lower-low sequence
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a reclaim of the 1.4220 range top neutralises the lower highs
Lower highs through Asia, lows flattening at 1.4199-1.4200.
Softer-dollar, pre-CPI selling took USD/CAD from the 1.4271 London high on Tuesday to a 1.4203 prior low in NY. Asia extended the asia drop to an asia low of 1.4199 on a chain of lower highs. Downside has stalled four times at the 1.4200 round number, and the broken prior low at 1.4203 is now capping, with ATR near 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.41987
Resistance: 1.42034, 1.42098, 1.42206
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4199 asia low extends the lower-low sequence beneath 1.4200
A reclaim of the 1.4210 swing high (50% of the asia drop) breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.4221 asia high above
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a dovish tone as CAD-negative
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main session risk, with core expected at 0.2% m/m
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 39 · price 1.42017
Lower highs from the NY range; Asian low 1.4199 holding on repeated tests.
Tuesday's sell-off from 1.4271 extended in Asia, breaking the NY low at 1.4203 and printing an Asian low at 1.4199 as the dollar softened ahead of US CPI. Price is pinned at the 1.4200 handle after three holds there, with the lower high at 1.4206 capping and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.41987
Resistance: 1.42034, 1.42063, 1.42206
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4199 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4203 NY low and the 1.4206 lower high neutralises the Asian leg and puts the 1.4220 NY range top back in view
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could each shift this read
Asian session broke below the late-NY range; lower highs into 1.4200.
The Asian session slipped out of the 1.4205–1.4220 late-NY range, the range floor to range top band, on a softer USD. Price is now pressing the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4199 Asian low, with a lower-highs trendline capping each bounce. RSI(14) sits near 31 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, a slow grind rather than a flush.
Support: 1.4199, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4214, 1.4220
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.4205 range floor puts price back inside the prior range
Acceptance below the 1.4199 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Recapture of 1.4214 fair value (Scotiabank) and the 1.4220 range top negates the breakdown
A break above the lower-highs trendline marks a shift in the intraday structure
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 32 · price 1.41995
Lower highs since London; Asian leg pressing below Tuesday's 1.4203 low.
Late Asia session: USDCAD slid from the 1.4220 range top to a 1.4199 Asian low. The move came as the dollar pullback ran into US CPI, with price now marginally under Tuesday's 1.4203 NY low and capped by a descending trendline. The 02:15 UTC bounce stalled at the 1.4206 lower high, roughly the 38.2% of the Asian leg. RSI(14) is near 32, soft but not extreme.
Support: 1.41993
Resistance: 1.42063, 1.4220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4206 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asian lower-high chain
Sustained trade below the 1.4199 asian low confirms the break of Tuesday's 1.4203 low
Recovery back above the 1.4220 range top would neutralise the Asian leg
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could shift this read; a dovish lean on the jobs data cuts against the CAD bid
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Bowman at 09:40 GMT are the larger event risk for the session
USDCAD shed ~70 pips from the 1.4271 London high as the USD eased into CPI. The selloff broke the 1.4255 London low and stalled at the 1.4203 NY low. Asia has since printed lower highs from the 1.4220 Asia high, briefly pushing under the 1.4200 round number to a 1.4199 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 33 and the 1.4206 bounce high now capping.
Support: 1.4199
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4220, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4199 asia low extends the lower-low chain under the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4206 bounce high, then the 1.4220 asia high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Return above the 1.4255 london low would put the breakdown shelf back in play
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the next major driver for USD/CAD
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.4201
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian session broke below the NY consolidation range.
USDCAD extended Tuesday's slide as the USD eased into CPI. The Asian session broke the 1.4205–1.4221 NY range and printed a 1.4199 session low, sitting right at the 1.4200 round number. A shallow bounce stalled at 1.4206, in line with the descending highs, and RSI(14) is near 31.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4199
Resistance: 1.4206, 1.4221
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4199 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close back above the 1.4206 bounce high breaks the descending highs line
Recovery through the 1.4221 range top negates the Asian range break
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI later this week is the larger USD driver
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia selling stalled at 1.42 · RSI 34 · price 1.42057
Lower highs through Asia; brief break of NY low reclaimed.
USD/CAD slid from 1.4257 to a 1.4203 NY low on Tuesday as the dollar eased ahead of US CPI, then held a 1.4205–1.4220 range top into the close. Asia printed lower highs and dipped under the NY low to a 1.4199 asian low before reclaiming 1.4205. The bounce has stalled below the 38.2% retracement of the Asia drop, with the 50% fib at 1.4210 next overhead. RSI(14) sits near 34 and ATR runs about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.42034, 1.41993
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.42206
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4199 asian low turns the false break into a lower-low below the round 1.42
Recovery above the 50% fib at 1.4210 would mark the first higher high since Asia opened
Range top at 1.4220 caps the overnight structure; a reclaim neutralises the Asia leg lower
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC, ahead of London open, could materially shift this read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the NY session
USDCAD extended Tuesday's pre-CPI USD pullback during the Asia session, slipping through the Tuesday low at 1.4203 to an Asia low of 1.4199 before snapping back above 1.4200. Lower highs since the 1.4220 range top keep the Asia trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 31 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4199
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.4220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4210 shelf and Asia trendline neutralises the Asian downswing
Sustained trade below the 1.4199 Asia low confirms a lower-low through 1.4200
Recovery through the 1.4220 range top would erase the Asia session decline
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI at 12:30 UTC follows
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low in Asia · RSI 28 · price 1.42005
Lower highs from 1.4221; NY afternoon range 1.4203–1.4220 broken lower.
USD/CAD broke below the London low at 1.4255 into the NY open as the dollar eased ahead of CPI. The pair then held a 1.4203–1.4220 range through NY afternoon. Asia has since built lower highs off the 1.4221 asia high and broken the 1.4203 NY low, printing an asia low at 1.4199 just under the 1.4200 psych level, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.4199, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4203, 1.4221, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4203 NY low turns the range break into a false break
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.4221 asia high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the asia low and the 1.4200 psych level extends the downtrend; RSI(14) sub-20 would mark it as stretched
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low in Asia · RSI 24 · price 1.42005
Lower highs from 1.4221, overnight range broken lower.
The Asia session broke under the 1.4205–1.4221 range that held through late NY. Price pushed through Tuesday's 1.4203 low to a session low at 1.4199, extending the pre-CPI USD pullback. RSI(14) is near 24 and ATR is about 3 pips, so the move is stretched but slow.
Support: 1.41993
Resistance: 1.42034, 1.42206
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4203 tuesday low would mark the 1.4200 break as a false break
Lower highs along the asia downline remain intact below the 1.4221 range top; a break above both negates the sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4199 session low confirms another lower low under the round number
BoC's Macklem speaks at 06:05 UTC; a dovish lean on hike pricing could reverse the CAD bid
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 31 · price 1.42076
1.4203–1.4220 range after selloff, pressing range low.
Tuesday's London-to-NY selloff from 1.4272 bottomed at the 1.4203 swing low as USD eased ahead of CPI and crude softened. The rebound stalled at the range top near 1.4220, the 23.6% level of the selloff fib, and the Asia session has slid back to retest the swing low with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.4203, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.4245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4203 swing low opens the 1.4200 round number and extends the downtrend
Recovery above the 1.4220 range top shifts focus to the 1.4245 breakdown area
Macklem speaks at 06:05 UTC and could reprice BoC hike odds
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.42089
Post-selloff range 1.4203–1.4220, early Asia retesting the floor.
Tuesday's ~70-pip slide from the 1.4275 Asian high bottomed at the 1.4203 NY low as USD eased into CPI and crude softened, then held a 1.4203–1.4220 range through late NY. Early Asia has slipped off the range top and is retesting the NY low zone, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42206, 1.42453
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4203 NY low and 1.4200 round number would confirm a lower-low in the selloff
Recovery above the 1.4220 range top reopens the 1.4245 prior shelf, near the 38.2% selloff fib
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the range
Asian break below 10h range floor, testing NY low.
Tuesday's sell-off took USDCAD from 1.4275 to a 1.4203 NY low as the USD eased into CPI, followed by a tight 1.4205–1.4220 range through late NY. Early Asia has slipped through the 1.4210 range floor after rejecting the 1.4221 asian high, with price pressing the NY low and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4211, 1.42206
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4203 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery back above the 1.4210 range floor would mark the Asian move as a false break
Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 31 · price 1.42068
1.4203–1.4220 range after NY breakdown; Asia pressing the floor.
Tuesday's NY sell-off took price from 1.4245 to a 1.4203 prior low as USD pulled back ahead of CPI. Price has since held a 1.4203–1.4220 range, capped by a lower high at 1.4234. The Asia session has faded from its 1.4221 session high into the 1.4206 swing low, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42206, 1.42344
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4203 prior low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4220 session high puts the range top back in play, with the descending lower-high line overhead
A move through the 1.4234 lower high invalidates the post-selloff downtrend read
BoC's Macklem at 06:05 UTC could shift the read, and US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger volatility event
Lower highs from London; flat 1.4203–1.4221 range since NY low.
USDCAD shed roughly 65 pips from London into early NY as the USD backed off Monday's highs ahead of CPI, printing a day low at 1.4203 before going flat. The 1.4203–1.4221 range has held since, with an 18:00 UTC higher low at 1.4206. Asia is now rotating lower after rejection at the range top near 1.4221, the 23.6% retracement of the London-NY decline.
Support: 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42206, 1.4224
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4203 day low extends the lower-low sequence out of the range
Close above the 1.4221 range top reopens the 1.4240 breakdown area
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main range-break risk for the session
Tight range 1.4206–1.4220 after London-NY sell-off; lower highs capped at range top.
USD/CAD slid about 70 pips from 1.4271 to the 1.4203 day low through the London-NY transition as the dollar pulled back ahead of US CPI. It then held a 1.4206–1.4220 range for roughly nine hours, with the bounce stalling at the range top near the 23.6% fib of the sell-off. Early Asia is pressing the Asian low at 1.4213, and ATR near 3 pips shows how compressed the market is.
Support: 1.42126, 1.42057, 1.42034
Resistance: 1.42206, 1.42344
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4206 swing low and 1.4203 day low resumes the sell-off leg
M15 close above the 1.4220 range top opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4229 and the 1.4234 prior pivot
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could break the Asian range either side
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main volatility event for the session
Tight 1.4203–1.4221 range after the NY breakdown, rising lows.
Price broke the 1.4255 london low into the NY open and slid to a 1.4203 ny low as USD faded ahead of CPI. Since then it has held a 1.4203–1.4221 range on rising lows, and early Asia is pressing the range high with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4206, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4221 range high would bring the 38.2% fib (~1.4225) and the 1.4234 ny pullback high into play
A break of the rising lows near 1.4213, then the 1.4206 higher low, would expose the 1.4203 ny low
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4272, now a tight Asian range above the NY low.
USDCAD shed about 70 pips through London and NY as USD eased ahead of CPI. The pair broke the 1.4255 london low and bottomed at the 1.4203 ny low around 15:00 UTC. A higher low at 1.4206 followed, and early Asia is compressing in a 1.4213–1.4221 range at the 23.6% retrace, with ATR down near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4206, 1.4203
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4234, 1.4255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4221 asian high opens the 1.4234 lower high and the 38.2% retrace
Loss of the 1.4213 asian low and then the 1.4203 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence
BoC Macklem at 06:05 UTC could break the Asian range compression
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the dominant risk for this read