USDCAD has trended lower all week, cracking the 1.41 pivot into the NY session and printing a four-week low near 1.4024 as soft US CPI and PPI kept the USD offered while firm oil supported CAD. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.4055) and EMA50, with each rebound capped along a descending line of lower highs. RSI(14) near 40 reflects sustained selling pressure without yet reaching oversold.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4100 pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4024 opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
US Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) is the week's key USD catalyst and could reshape this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from Monday's 1.4174 toward a four-week low near 1.4024 as soft US CPI and PPI pressured the USD while firm oil and a steady BoC hold (2.25%) kept CAD bid. Price is pinned below EMA20 and EMA50 and has spent the last several NY hours consolidating in a tight 1.4030–1.4045 band just above support. RSI(14) sits around 39, reflecting persistent selling without a clean divergence yet.
Support: 1.4024, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4024 weekly low opens the path toward 1.3970 (50-dma)
Reclaim of 1.4077 prior high would question the lower-high sequence
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the week's key USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, near four-week low · RSI 43 · price 1.40381
Lower highs and lower lows, below EMA20/50.
USD/CAD extended the week's slide, breaking the 1.41 pivot into a four-week low near 1.4024 as soft US CPI/PPI kept the dollar heavy while firm oil supported CAD; the BoC hold at 2.25% was fully priced and left the move externally driven. Price trades below EMA20/50 with lower highs capping every bounce since Monday, and RSI is holding the low-40s. A shallow recovery off the 1.4024 low has stalled under 1.4045.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.41 pivot invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.40244 opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 39 · price 1.40381
Lower highs, lower lows below 1.41 pivot.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, breaking the 1.4100 pivot during the NY session and printing a four-week low near 1.4024, with price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50. The slide reflects a soft dollar after the CPI/PPI misses and firm oil underpinning CAD, while the BoC hold at 2.25% was fully priced and left the move externally driven. RSI(14) sits in the high-30s without a clean bullish divergence yet.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4077, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4100 pivot would invalidate the downtrend read
US Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift the dollar tone
Failure to hold 1.4024 opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
USD/CAD extended its slide through the 1.41 pivot to a four-week low at 1.40244, pressured by soft US CPI/PPI repricing and firm oil supporting CAD. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) in the low-40s, and the last two days have carved a shallow base above 1.4020 as the impulse stalls. The 1.40769 day high and EMA20 near 1.4055 have capped the intraday bounces.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.40769, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.41 pivot would neutralise the downside pressure
Break below 1.40244 week low confirms the next lower-low toward 1.4000
Canada CPI Mon Jul 20 12:30 UTC is the next domestic test for this read
Fed's Musalem tonight 23:30 UTC could shift USD-side tone
USDCAD has trended lower all week, breaking the 1.41 pivot during the NY session and printing a four-week low near 1.4024 as soft US CPI/PPI weighed on the dollar while firm oil supported CAD. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 41, and the last few bars are consolidating just above the week low after the impulsive drop. The BoC hold at 2.25% was fully priced, leaving external drivers in control.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41000 would neutralise the downtrend read
Break and close below 1.40244 confirms a fresh lower low toward the 1.40 psych level
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul 12:30 UTC is the next test for this move
Lower highs and lower lows, breakdown below 1.4100.
USDCAD has trended lower all week and extended the slide after soft US PPI and the fully-priced BoC hold, with firmer oil underpinning CAD. Price broke the 1.4100 pivot and printed a four-week low near 1.4024, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) is cycling in the lower half with each bounce capped, most recently rejected at the 1.4077 prior high.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4100 pivot would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4039 4wk low confirms continuation lower toward 1.4024
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 37 · price 1.40417
Lower highs and lower lows, broke 1.41 pivot.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, accelerating after soft US CPI and PPI misses unwound Fed hike bets and firmer oil kept the loonie bid. Price broke the 1.41 pivot mid-week and printed a fresh session low at 1.40244, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI pinned in the mid-30s. The 1.41 pivot now acts as overhead resistance after the breakdown.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4059, 1.4130
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales Thu 16 Jul 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.41000 invalidates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.40244 exposes the 1.4000 psych level
USDCAD has trended lower all week, accelerating through the 1.4100 pivot after soft US CPI/PPI undercut the dollar and the BoC held at 2.25%, with firmer oil supporting the loonie. Price printed a fresh 4-week low at 1.40244 in the NY session before a modest bounce back to 1.40405; it sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-40s. Rallies have stalled at successive lower highs, most recently 1.40769.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.40769, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.40560 ema20 would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold the 1.40244 session low opens the path toward the 50-day near 1.3970
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD extended a fourth-plus session lower, sliding beneath the 1.4100 pivot to a fresh four-week low near 1.4024 as soft US CPI/PPI weighed on the dollar and firmer oil kept the loonie bid; the BoC hold at 2.25% was fully priced. Price is pinned below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with each rally into 1.4076 capped this week. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s without a clear divergence, keeping the descending structure intact.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4100, 1.41154
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41000 pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
A sustained break of the 1.4039 four-week low needs fresh dovish-Fed repricing
US Retail Sales Thu 16 Jul 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, at fresh lows · RSI 32 · price 1.40299
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, with the decisive leg down coming in the NY session as soft US CPI and PPI misses knocked the dollar and firm oil supported CAD. The pair broke the 1.4039 monthly base and printed a fresh low at 1.40299, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 31. The broken 1.4039 base now sits as resistance overhead, with 1.4059 and the 1.40769 session high capping.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4059, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.40410 broken base would ease downside pressure
Sustained trade below 1.4039 keeps the lower-low structure intact
Thursday US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD has slid steadily since Monday's open, with the dominant leg down through the NY session as soft US CPI and Wednesday's PPI miss pressured the dollar and firm oil supported CAD. Price closed at a fresh session low of 1.40299, slipping below the 1.4039 near-monthly low, and sits well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) in oversold territory. The 1.4065/1.4077 lower-high band has capped every intraday bounce this week.
Support: 1.4000, 1.40299
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4065, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below 1.4039 keeps the lower-low structure intact
H1 close back above 1.40650 would neutralise the immediate downside pressure
Thursday 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Monday 12:30 UTC a primary CAD catalyst
USDCAD is pinned near a near-monthly low after soft US CPI and PPI knocked the dollar and an oil-driven CAD bid extended the slide through 1.41 into the NY session. Price has stalled in a 1.4039–1.4077 band for the last day-plus, holding below EMA20 with RSI cycling in the low 40s. The 1.4039 base has absorbed two probes without a clean break lower.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a lower low toward 1.4000/1.3970
Reclaim of 1.4077 opens room back to the 1.4130 pivot
Thursday 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.4174 open, pressured by soft US CPI/PPI misses and an oil-driven CAD bid, with the drop accelerating through the NY session yesterday into the 1.4039 triangle base. Price is now consolidating just above that base under a declining EMA(20), and RSI(14) sits mid-40s after cycling near oversold on the impulse lower. The 1.41 pivot has capped attempts this week and remains the level to reclaim.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Decisive H1 close below 1.4039 opens the path toward 1.4000
Reclaim of the 1.41 pivot would neutralise the lower-high structure
Thursday 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40473
Lower highs, basing above weekly low.
USDCAD sagged to a near-monthly low at 1.4039 as USD softened for a second day on the soft CPI/PPI misses, with CAD firm through the BoC hold at 2.25%. Price has since chopped in a tight base between 1.4039 and 1.4077, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stuck in the low-40s. The dominant move of the week was the sell-off from 1.4174, and the recovery attempts have made lower highs into the NY session.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Decisive H1 close below 1.4039 opens the path toward 1.3970
Reclaim of 1.4077 then 1.4130 pivot would neutralise the downtrend read
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.40473
Lower highs, lower lows into weekly base.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, slicing through 1.41 and the 1.4130 pivot as the USD was sold on soft US CPI and follow-through weak PPI, with the loonie firm into a steady BoC hold. Price is pinned below EMA20 and EMA50, basing between the 1.4039 weekly low and the reclaimed 1.4058 area after the sharp NY-session drop. RSI(14) sits near 42, holding off oversold as the pair grinds sideways along the lows.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40454
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4058, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Decisive H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low, opening 1.3970
H1 close back above 1.41 would neutralise the downtrend read
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, dropping from 1.4174 to a 1.4039 low as soft US CPI/PPI weighed on the dollar and oil-driven CAD strength held into the BoC hold at 2.25%. Price is now coiling in a tight 1.4040–1.4077 band below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but capped in the mid-40s. Rallies into the NY session have repeatedly stalled below 1.4077.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40473
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.41154, 1.4114
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.40769 session high would ease downside pressure
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation either way
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.40507
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD sold off through this week's session, accelerating on the BoC-hold bar as soft US CPI and firm oil underpinned the Loonie, driving price to a 4-week low near 1.4039. Since that drop price has consolidated in a 1.4040-1.4077 band, capped by the session high and holding just above the monthly low. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s with price pinned below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.40473, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.40390 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.41000 psych pivot would challenge the downtrend read
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/CAD has trended lower since Monday, pressing a four-week low near 1.4039 after soft US CPI/PPI knocked the dollar and the BoC hold left the oil-linked loonie bid. Price is now basing between that 4wk low and the day high at 1.4077, holding just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s. The bulk of the week's decline came in the NY session after the BoC/CPI event bar.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40473, 1.4058
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4100, 1.4115
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4077 day high opens the 1.41 psych level
Failure to hold 1.4039 4wk low confirms a fresh lower-low
Warsh testimony / BoC presser tone could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.40627
Lower highs, basing above four-week low.
USDCAD extended its slide to a four-week low near 1.4040 through the NY session, driven by soft US CPI/PPI and a rising oil bid, with the BoC hold at 2.25% already priced. Price is now consolidating above the 1.40465 swing low and has reclaimed EMA20, though it remains capped by the descending lower highs and sits below EMA50. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold into the mid-40s as the base builds.
Support: 1.40465, 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40769
What it said to watch
Warsh testimony (14:00 UTC) is the dominant near-term USD driver and could shift this read
Hourly close below 1.40400 confirms a fresh lower-low and reopens the 1.40 round number
Reclaim of 1.40769 day high would challenge the descending lower-highs structure
USDCAD trended lower through the week, sliding from Monday's ~1.4170 zone to a four-week low at 1.4039 as soft US CPI and PPI pressured the dollar and firm oil underpinned CAD. Price has since consolidated in a 1.4047–1.4077 band below EMA(20) through the NY session yesterday, with RSI(14) basing in the mid-40s. The 1.4077 day high caps rebounds while the 1.40 psych level sits just under the range base.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4057, 1.4107
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a lower low
Close above 1.4077 breaks the consolidation band
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, at weekly lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40527
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, breaking down from the 1.4130-1.4160 range on soft US CPI and PPI and firm oil, printing a four-week low near 1.4040. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.4065), which capped today's bounce to 1.40769 before a fresh rejection. RSI(14) is holding in the low-40s without a clear divergence, consistent with the prevailing downtrend into the BoC decision.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.40769, 1.41067
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR 13:45 UTC and Warsh testimony could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4040 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the EMA20 (~1.4065) would challenge the downtrend structure
Break above 1.40769 session high needed to signal a shift
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday, with the dominant leg down driven by the soft US CPI print gutting USD and a firmer CAD on rising oil. Price flushed to a 1.4039 week low before basing between the four-week low (~1.4045) and the 1.4071 session high; RSI has recovered toward 50 as selling pressure eased. Sits back above EMA(20) but capped below EMA(50) into the BoC decision.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4045
Resistance: 1.40714, 1.41045, 1.4115
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC and US PPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC — hawkish guidance could arrest the USD slide
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low
H1 close above 1.4104 prior high needed to break the descending-highs structure
USDCAD has trended lower all week, accelerating through 1.4115 into a 1.4039 week low as soft US CPI undercut the dollar and firm oil kept CAD bid. Price has since clawed back above EMA(20) toward 1.4070, with RSI lifting off oversold, but the pair remains under the descending series of lower highs and below EMA(50). Buyers stepped in twice near 1.4039–1.4054 to base the move.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4054, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4115, 1.4090
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC today can materially shift this read
US PPI 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC are near-term USD risks
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low
Close above 1.4115 breakdown level would neutralise the downtrend read
USDCAD extended its multi-day slide into four-week lows after the soft US June CPI print knocked the dollar and firm oil buoyed CAD; the sharpest leg down came in yesterday's NY session, printing 1.40541. Price has since based just above that week low, capped repeatedly near 1.40741, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold as the market coils below the EMA50.
Support: 1.40541, 1.40404
Resistance: 1.40741, 1.41154
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.40541 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.40741 hourly cap opens room back toward 1.41154 prior high
BoC decision 13:45 UTC, plus US PPI 12:30 UTC and Warsh 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs into four-week-low support, now basing.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, accelerating through 1.41 on the soft US CPI print and firm oil into the 1.4040-1.4055 four-week-low zone. Price has since based and ticked back above EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering off its lows toward neutral. The 1.40741 prior high has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40515
Resistance: 1.40741, 1.41045, 1.41343
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision/statement at 13:45 UTC and Warsh testimony at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI at 12:30 UTC is near-term follow-through risk on the soft-CPI USD move
H1 close below 1.40390 confirms a fresh lower-low and reopens the four-week-low support
Reclaim of 1.41045 would break the week's lower-high sequence
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.4170 area to a four-week low near 1.4039, pressured by soft US June CPI and firmer oil supporting the Loonie. The sharpest leg came in yesterday's NY session, and price has since consolidated in a tight 1.4039-1.4074 band, hugging the EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward the mid-40s. EMA(50) still caps overhead as the broader H1 structure of lower highs holds.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4046
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.41067
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + statement at 13:45 UTC is the primary catalyst for this pair
A clean break below the 1.4039 four-week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.4074 swing high would break the week's descending resistance
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from Monday's ~1.4175 open to four-week lows near 1.4039 as soft US June CPI capped the dollar and firm oil supported the Loonie. Price has since carved a tight 1.4040-1.4073 consolidation with RSI(14) lifting off its lows. The BoC rate decision at 13:45 UTC (hold at 2.25% expected) is the immediate structural catalyst.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4073, 1.4115, 1.4135
What it said to watch
BoC statement at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above 1.4115 breakdown level negates the week's downdraft
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating above four-week low.
USDCAD extended a second down day this week, sliding from the 1.4130s into a four-week low near 1.4039 as soft US CPI trimmed Fed-hike bets and firmer oil kept CAD bid. The decline stalled into the NY session yesterday, with price now consolidating 1.4040–1.4074 just below a flattening EMA(20). RSI(14) has lifted off its lows but sits sub-50, matching the pause in the trend.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4045
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4074, 1.4115
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC and press conference 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC on the USD side
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim above 1.4074 and EMA(20) would neutralise the near-term downside pressure
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40542
Lower highs and lower lows, basing above week low.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, extending a second straight day of losses as soft US CPI trimmed Fed hike bets and firmer oil kept the Loonie bid. The dominant leg came during yesterday's London session, dropping from ~1.4115 to sub-1.4075, and price now bases above the four-week low near 1.4040 while holding below EMA20. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, reflecting stalled but still-negative momentum.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4075, 1.4107
What it said to watch
BoC decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC and US PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Break and hold below 1.4039 week low confirms downtrend continuation
Hourly close back above 1.4075 session high challenges the lower-high structure
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating at range base.
USDCAD has ground lower all week from Monday's 1.4189 high, with the sharpest leg down through 1.4054 following the soft US June CPI print that trimmed Fed hike pricing while firm oil kept CAD bid. Price is now basing between 1.4039 and 1.4060, holding below EMA20 (~1.4066) and EMA50 as RSI(14) recovers off oversold. The four-week low at 1.4040 has capped further downside for now, but every bounce has faded into the descending EMA cluster.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4066, 1.4073, 1.4115
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC and press conference 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US Core PPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony at 14:00 UTC are USD-side risks
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower-low; reclaim of 1.4073 breaks the descending sequence
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.4051
Lower highs, consolidating above 4wk low.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from Monday's 1.4159 open to a four-week low near 1.4040 as soft US CPI trimmed Fed hike bets and firm oil kept the Loonie bid. The break under 1.4115 during yesterday's NY session accelerated the move; price now holds below EMA(20) with RSI(14) basing in the low 40s as the last ten bars coil 1.4039–1.4058. The BoC decision at 13:45 UTC is the immediate swing factor for this range.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4115
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.4040 confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.4090 ema20 would neutralise the current down-leg
BoC statement/MPR at 13:45 UTC and US PPI could materially shift this read
USDCAD extended its slide to a four-week low near 1.4039 after soft US June CPI sank the dollar and firmer oil buoyed CAD, capping a run of lower highs since Monday. Price has since consolidated in a tight 1.404-1.406 band, stalling just under the EMA20 with RSI(14) recovering off the low but still sub-50. The 1.40740 lower high has capped the last bounce.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40467
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4074
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and press conf 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI 12:30 UTC is the next USD inflation tell
H1 close below 1.40390 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the EMA20 and 1.40740 lower high would ease the downside pressure
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week low · RSI 43 · price 1.40549
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week from the 1.4188 open, with the decisive leg down in the NY session as soft US June CPI hit the dollar and firmer oil buoyed CAD. Price broke to a four-week low near 1.4039 and is basing just above it around 1.4055; RSI sits in the low 40s after the sell-off. Both EMAs cap price overhead and the descending sequence of lower highs remains intact.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4046
Resistance: 1.4073, 1.4115, 1.4135
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC + press conference 14:30 UTC could reprice CAD sharply
US PPI at 12:30 UTC is the next USD inflation tell
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4073 bounce high needed to challenge the downtrend
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 43 · price 1.40535
Lower highs, fresh weekly low then basing.
USDCAD has trended lower all week and broke to a fresh four-week low after Tuesday's soft US CPI and firmer oil pressured the pair through the ~1.4055 area. Price is now basing in a tight 1.4039–1.4074 band just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward 43. The BoC decision at 13:45 UTC is the domestic swing factor and sits directly under this consolidation.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40464
Resistance: 1.40741
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.40741 range top would break the down-structure
Failure to hold 1.4039 session low confirms a lower low
US Core PPI at 12:30 UTC feeds the softer-USD theme
USDCAD sold off hard through the NY session yesterday, breaking below 1.4105 on the soft US CPI print and oil-driven CAD strength, printing a fresh four-week low at 1.4039. Price has since gone quiet in a tight band above that low, holding well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI recovering off oversold near 40. The week's structure remains a clean chain of lower highs.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40473
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.41045, 1.41154
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.4039 week low confirms a lower low
H1 close back above 1.4074 bounce high would ease the downside momentum
Lower highs, lower lows; consolidating at fresh lows.
USDCAD extended lower through the week, breaking to fresh four-week lows near 1.4040 as soft US June CPI weighed on the dollar and firm oil supported CAD. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50, and after the NY-session drop it has drifted into a tight consolidation just above the session low with RSI recovering off its lows. The dominant leg came in the NY session, with each bounce capped under the 1.4070 consolidation top.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Break below 1.4039 session low opens the path toward 1.4000
Hourly close back above 1.4070 consol top would ease downside momentum
US PPI / Warsh testimony may rebuild USD premium and cap the decline
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended into lows · RSI 37 · price 1.40497
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has ground lower all week, accelerating through the NY session yesterday on soft US June CPI and a crude-driven bid for the Loonie, breaking the 1.4055 four-week low. Price sits pinned near 1.4050 below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in oversold territory as the pair bases just above the 1.4039 swing low. Bounces have stalled at 1.40729, keeping the descending sequence of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40729
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and US PPI 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40729 would break the run of lower highs
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 38 · price 1.4045
Lower highs and lower lows, at week lows.
USDCAD ground to four-week lows through the NY session, breaking the ~1.4055 floor after soft US CPI and firmer oil pressured the pair all week. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with a sequence of lower highs; the 1.4055 break level now caps rebounds. Bounces off the 1.4039 session low have been shallow into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4055 would neutralise the fresh breakout read
A close below 1.4039 opens the path toward the 1.4000 handle
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and US PPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, at 4-week lows · RSI 41 · price 1.4045
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD extended its slide through the NY session, printing a fresh four-week low near 1.4039 as soft US June CPI and oil-driven CAD strength pressured the pair. Price is capped below the H1 EMA(20) around 1.4056 with RSI(14) holding in the low 40s, and the last several bars have coiled just above the session low. The break under the 1.4055 level noted this week has kept structure defined by lower highs and lower lows.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and US PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above 1.4067 challenges the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 1.4039 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence toward 1.4000
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended into lows · RSI 33 · price 1.40404
Lower highs and lower lows, price at week low.
USDCAD has trended lower all week and accelerated after Tuesday's soft US CPI knocked the dollar, breaking the June-17 low near 1.4055 into 1.4039. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressed into oversold territory, and the late-Asia drift shows no bounce yet. The BoC decision and US PPI today are the immediate structural swing factors.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000, 1.40514
Resistance: 1.4074
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision 13:45 UTC and US PPI 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.4074 prior range would ease the downside pressure
USDCAD has trended lower all week, accelerating after Tuesday's soft US CPI print knocked the dollar and firmer oil supported the Loonie, printing a fresh four-week low at 1.4039. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with each NY-session bounce capped under 1.4074. RSI(14) near 37 reflects sustained selling pressure without yet reaching an extreme.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.4066
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR 13:45 UTC and US PPI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained break of 1.4039 confirms a lower low toward the 1.4000 psych level
Reclaim of 1.4074 would challenge the lower-highs sequence
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 33 · price 1.40459
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD extended lower through the NY session after the soft US June CPI print knocked the dollar and firmer oil supported the Loonie, driving a clean break of the 1.4130 shelf toward the 1.4044 four-week low. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed into oversold; the bounce off 1.4044 has so far stalled under 1.4074, keeping the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 1.40435, 1.4054, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.4115
What it said to watch
Sustained break below 1.4055 confirms the lower-low toward psych 1.4000
H1 close back above 1.4074 would challenge the descending lower-highs
BoC rate decision and US PPI later today could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from the 1.4189 weekly high to fresh multi-week lows near 1.4045 as a soft US June CPI print pressured the dollar and stronger oil underpinned the Loonie. The break below the 1.4055 June-17 low during the NY session leaves price below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with each pullback capped by lower highs. RSI(14) sits near 34 and the tape has flattened into Asia, consolidating just above the 1.4044 swing low.
Support: 1.40435, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4074, 1.4115
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 1.4055 would neutralise the fresh downside break
Loss of 1.4044 swing low opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC and US PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 35 · price 1.40466
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, the decline accelerating after the soft US June CPI print knocked the dollar while firm oil kept CAD bid. Price broke the 1.4054 shelf into the Asia session and now prints fresh weekly lows near 1.4046, holding well below EMA(20) with RSI(14) stuck sub-40. Descending lower-highs have capped every bounce through the week.
Support: 1.40456, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4076
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4076 (EMA20) would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 1.4046 weekly low opens the 1.4000 psych level
BoC decision 13:45 UTC + US PPI 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, accelerating through the NY session yesterday as soft US June CPI unwound hawkish Fed bets and firm oil kept CAD bid; the pair broke the 1.4115 shelf and printed fresh lows near 1.4046. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 38, and the Asia session is drifting toward the lows on thin volume. Rebounds have been capped at 1.4074 through the last two sessions.
Support: 1.40456, 1.4000, 1.40514
Resistance: 1.40741, 1.4078, 1.4115
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4046 session low opens the path toward 1.4000 psych
Reclaim of 1.4074 prior high would ease downside pressure
US PPI at 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony at 14:00 UTC could snap USD back and shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 38 · price 1.40534
Lower highs, lower lows; consolidating at lows.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, with a sharp NY-session leg down through 1.4115 after the soft US CPI print and firm CAD on oil, pressing to a week low at 1.4047. Price is now consolidating a few pips above that low, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the lower half. The 1.4073 prior high has capped the bounce.
Support: 1.4047, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4073, 1.4115, 1.4130
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4073 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4047 confirms continuation of the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating near lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week from the 1.4188 weekly open, with the decline accelerating through the NY session as soft US CPI unwound the hawkish-Fed USD bid and firm oil supported CAD. The sharp drop from 1.4135 to 1.4054 marked a clean range break, and price is now consolidating just above the 1.40473 week low. RSI(14) sits near 38, tracking the down-leg without yet basing.
Support: 1.40473, 1.40514
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.41067
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.40740 range top would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.40473 confirms continuation lower
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read