USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open near 1.4169, a USD-led slide on soft US CPI/PPI trimming Fed-hike bets, and is now probing four-week lows around 1.4010. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-40s, and the last several hours show thin Asia-session consolidation around 1.4040 after the decline stalled. Lower highs remain intact from the weekly high into the 1.4077 area.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40769, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4010 confirms a lower-low, opening the 1.4000 psych level
Reclaim of 1.4050 prior high needed to challenge the lower-highs line
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground lower all week from Monday's 1.4174 open, printing a four-week low near 1.4010 on soft US CPI/PPI and receding Fed-hike odds. Price has since stalled into a tight consolidation around 1.4040, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s. The move remains USD-led; 1.4058 has capped the last two attempts higher.
Support: 1.40101, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40769
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4058 breaks the current consolidation
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul 12:30 UTC could reset this read
USDCAD has ground down to a four-week low near 1.401 through the week, a USD-led slide on soft US CPI/PPI that trimmed Fed-hike bets; the in-line BoC hold added little. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with lower highs intact, but the last day has stalled into a tight consolidation between the 1.401 week low and the 1.4058 swing high. RSI(14) around 43 reflects fading downside momentum rather than a turn.
Support: 1.4020, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4077, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.41 psych pivot would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.401 week low confirms trend continuation
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.40385
Lower highs, lower lows; consolidating at week low.
USDCAD ground to a four-week low near 1.4010 through the week, a USD-led move on soft US CPI/PPI rather than a CAD story, with the BoC hold landing in line. Price has since basing between 1.4032 and 1.4058, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 as RSI(14) recovers off the lows. The session high at 1.40577 has capped the bounce.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4010, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
Sustained break below 1.4010 week low opens the path to the 50d ma near 1.3970
Hourly close above 1.40577 session high would ease the downside pressure
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and Fri UoM inflation expectations are the key catalysts for this pair
USDCAD has ground lower all week from Monday's ~1.4149 open to a four-week low at 1.4010, a USD-led slide on softer US CPI/PPI rather than a CAD story. Price is now consolidating 1.4032-1.4057 just below EMA(20), with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s and each bounce capped under the 1.4077 prior high. The 1.4057 day high has held two recent attempts while buyers stepped in twice off the 1.4010 area.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4077, 1.4114
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4010 confirms a lower low and extends the week's decline
Reclaim of 1.4077 needed to challenge the 1.4114 swing high
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower · RSI 44 · price 1.4041
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, pressing a four-week low near 1.4039 on the softer-USD backdrop after cool US CPI/PPI. The sharp NY-session leg down through 1.4115 to 1.4054 set the tone, and price has since consolidated just above the 1.4010 weekly low, capped by lower highs and sitting under both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s reflects fading downside momentum without a turn.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close below 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4077 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/CAD has trended lower since Monday's open, with the soft US CPI/PPI repricing dragging price to a four-week low at 1.40101 before a bounce. It is now consolidating in a 1.404–1.406 band, hovering around EMA(20) but capped below EMA(50). RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-line after basing near the week's low.
Support: 1.4030, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.40769
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40769 prior high would break the sequence of lower-highs
Failure to hold 1.40101 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment Fri could shift this read
Basing near four-week lows after impulsive leg down.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, with the dominant leg driven through NY hours on the dovish US CPI/PPI repricing that gutted Fed-hike bets. Price bottomed near 1.4010 yesterday and has since consolidated back to 1.4048, reclaiming EMA20 while EMA50 caps overhead. RSI has recovered off oversold into the low-50s as the sell-off loses pace.
Support: 1.40101, 1.40196
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40769, 1.41067
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.41 pivot would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground lower all week from Monday's ~1.4155 open toward a four-week low near 1.4010, driven by soft US inflation prints trimming Fed-hike odds. Price has stabilised in a 1.4040–1.4077 range over the last day as the USD steadied off its lows, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold. The descending sequence of lower highs remains intact.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130, 1.4155
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4077 opens the path back toward the 1.4130 rebound cap
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset the CAD side of this read
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's ~1.4155 open, a USD-led slide on soft US CPI/PPI that pushed the pair to a four-week low near 1.4010; the in-line BoC hold added little CAD-specific impulse. Price is now basing in a tight 1.4010-1.4058 range and pressing back to the H1 EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering toward 50 after cycling near oversold at the lows. The broader lower-high/lower-low structure off 1.4174 remains intact.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4077 challenges the week's lower-high structure
UoM sentiment + inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
USDCAD has trended lower all week in a USD-led slide, printing a four-week low near 1.4010 before demand stepped in during the NY session on Middle East safe-haven flows and pre-data caution. Price has since reclaimed EMA20 with RSI(14) recovering to the low-50s, but it stalls under the 1.4100 pivot and remains below EMA50. The 1.4077 swing high caps the current bounce.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4100 pivot invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4039 confirms a lower-low toward 1.3970
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; bouncing off week low.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, sliding from 1.4174 to a fresh week low at 1.4010 as soft US CPI/PPI drove the week's dovish USD repricing. Price has since reclaimed EMA20 into the NY session, but sits below EMA50 and under the 1.4100 pivot, keeping the lower-high, lower-low sequence intact. The bounce off 1.4010 lifted RSI back to mid-range, though supply near the 1.4077 prior high and 1.4100 pivot has yet to be tested.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4100 pivot would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 4-week low zone
Michigan sentiment (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift the USD read
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.41742 high, printing a 4-week low near 1.4010 as soft US CPI/PPI and firm oil kept the Loonie bid. Price has bounced into the NY session and reclaimed EMA20, but EMA50 still caps overhead and each rally this week has stalled beneath descending lower highs. The BoC hold drew minimal reaction; direction remains a USD/oil story.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.40769, 1.41446
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4065 prior high challenges the descending lower-highs
Loss of the 1.4010 week low confirms lower-low continuation
Fed speakers (Schmid 17:25, Jefferson 23:00 UTC) could shift USD tone
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's session, accelerating on the soft US PPI print and printing a fresh week low at 1.4010 into NY hours before demand stepped in. Price now consolidates just above EMA20 while EMA50 near 1.4055 caps the bounce; RSI(14) has cycled back toward 50 off oversold, with the recent lower low not confirmed by momentum. Disinflation-driven USD softness plus firmer oil kept the pair pinned near four-week lows.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.40769
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4077 prior high breaks the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4010 week low opens the 1.4000 round number
Fed speakers today (Schmid 17:25, Jefferson 23:00 UTC) could inject USD volatility
USDCAD has trended lower all week off Monday's 1.4174 area, with the dominant leg down during Tuesday's NY session that broke the four-week low near 1.4039 — soft US CPI/PPI and firmer CAD driving the move. Price is grinding just under EMA20 (~1.4042) after basing at 1.40101, with RSI(14) sitting near 41 as downside momentum eases into the Asia/London handover. The 1.40 handle is the pivot the week's decline is now testing.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4077, 1.41067
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4042 (EMA20) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Sustained break of 1.40101 / the 1.40 handle extends the downtrend
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT and Fed speakers today could reset this read
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's 1.4124 open, sliding to a fresh four-week low at 1.4010 during yesterday's NY session as soft US CPI/PPI kept the dollar offered against a firm Loonie. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s, and a modest bounce off 1.4010 into today's session hasn't reclaimed the 1.4053 prior-high shelf. The descending channel of lower highs remains intact.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4124
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4053 would challenge the downtrend structure
Failure to hold 1.4010 opens the 1.4000 psych handle
Canada CPI (Mon Jul 20) is the next domestic catalyst and could reset this read
Descending, sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, printing a fresh four-week low near 1.4010 as broad USD weakness after soft US PPI kept pressure on the pair. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.4046) and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 40, and each NY-session bounce this week has stalled at descending resistance. Today's mixed US data (strong Philly Fed, soft pending home sales) drew little reaction with the softer-Dollar tone intact.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4046
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4046 EMA20 challenges the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.4000
Fed speakers (Logan/Schmid/Jefferson) today could shift the USD read
Canada CPI Mon Jul 20 is the next major catalyst for this pair
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, near week lows · RSI 40 · price 1.40326
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, pressing a fresh four-week low at 1.4010 as broad USD weakness after soft CPI/PPI dominated the tape; the pair sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price broke the 1.4050 shelf during the NY session and has only managed a shallow bounce to 1.4033, keeping RSI(14) subdued near 40. The BoC hold drew little FX reaction, leaving USD direction as the driver.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4050 broken support would soften the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.4010 week low opens the 1.4000 psych area
Michigan Sentiment + inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could shift the USD read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, capped by a descending sequence of lower highs as a soft USD (back-to-back inflation misses) meets a firm loonie after the hawkish-hold BoC. Price broke the 1.4030 shelf into the NY session and printed a fresh week low at 1.40101, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) near 33 reflects the persistent selling pressure without yet an oversold divergence.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4046
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.40101 confirms lower-low continuation toward 1.4000 psych
Reclaim of the 1.40460 ema20 needed to challenge the downtrend structure
Canada CPI Mon Jul 20 12:30 UTC is the key catalyst that could shift this read
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid, Jefferson) today could inject USD volatility
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.4174 high, printing steady lower highs and now slicing the four-week low near 1.4039 into the NY session. The break lower fits a soft-USD backdrop after this week's downside inflation prints and a firm loonie post-hawkish BoC hold. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed near oversold as the 1.4010 area is tested.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.40769, 1.41067
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4049 EMA(20) would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 1.4010 opens the 1.4000 psych level as next reference
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid, Jefferson) today could shift the USD read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 39 · price 1.40284
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, with USD soft at multi-week lows after cool PPI and the CAD firm on oil support. Price broke below the prior four-week low near 1.4039 and is grinding to fresh lows at 1.4020, holding under both EMA20 and EMA50 on every pullback. RSI(14) sits weak near 38 with no bullish divergence as the 1.4039 pivot now caps from above.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4039 prior low would neutralise the breakout
Loss of 1.40196 week low opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
Canada CPI Monday and Fed speakers today could reshape this read
Lower highs and lower lows, breaking prior week low.
USDCAD has ground steadily lower since Monday's open, with soft US PPI and firm oil keeping the dollar heavy against the Loonie. Price consolidated in a 1.404-1.406 range through the NY session before slipping to a fresh week low near 1.402, holding below EMA20/EMA50 the whole week. RSI(14) sits near the low-30s with price pressing the four-week low.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4059
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.40590 would ease the downside pressure and question the range break
Failure to hold 1.40000 psych opens the path toward 1.3970
Fed speakers today (Logan, Schmid, Jefferson) could shift the USD read
Canada CPI Monday is the next domestic catalyst for the pair
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, the dominant leg coming through the NY session two days back when price snapped below 1.4100 on the softer US inflation repricing. Price is now compressing just above the 1.4024 four-week low, capped by the H1 EMA(20) near 1.4042 with RSI(14) hovering around 40. The bounce off the 1.4039 base has been shallow, keeping the week's structure of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.40244, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4059, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4059 session high would break the lower-highs sequence
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding to lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40299
Lower highs, lower lows; consolidating at range base.
Persistent H1 downtrend since Monday's open as the USD stayed pinned near multi-week lows following soft PPI, with USD/CAD stepping lower through each session. Price is pressing the four-week base near 1.4024 with RSI(14) hovering in the low 40s and price capped under EMA20 around 1.4050. Momentum has flattened into a tight consolidation just above the low ahead of US data.
Support: 1.40244, 1.40299
Resistance: 1.4050
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next hour
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim above 1.4050 EMA20 would ease the downside pressure
Lower highs into four-week low, now consolidating.
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's ~1.4155 open, pressured by back-to-back soft US inflation prints and firm oil keeping CAD bid, printing a four-week low at 1.4024 in the NY session yesterday. Price now sits pinned near 1.4036, below EMA20 and EMA50, with the last dozen bars coiling in a tight 1.4036–1.4050 range as RSI(14) holds in the low 40s. The 1.4077 prior high has capped rebounds; the 1.4039 base and 1.4024 swing low are the levels in focus.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4115, 1.4130
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Sustained break below 1.4024 extends the downtrend and opens 1.4000
H1 close back above 1.4077 neutralises the lower-high sequence
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from Monday's 1.4170 area to a 4-week low at 1.4024 as soft US CPI and PPI pressured the Dollar and firm oil kept CAD bid. The seven-day slide has stalled: price is basing between 1.4024 and the EMA20 near 1.4050, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Rejections at 1.4077 through the NY sessions have marked successive lower highs.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40769, 1.41154
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.4050 ema20 would neutralise the downside pressure
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's ~1.4165 open, with the sharpest leg during Tuesday's NY session down to 1.4024, as a hawkish BoC hold and firm crude underpinned CAD while soft US PPI kept the Dollar heavy. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.40 psychological handle and the four-week low, pinned below the EMA20 at ~1.4048 with RSI cycling in the low-40s. The 1.40769 swing high has capped the two recovery attempts since.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.40769, 1.4130
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales today 12:30 UTC could shift this read via USD
Sustained break below 1.40 would confirm continuation of the weekly downtrend
H1 close back above 1.4048 EMA20, then 1.40769, would neutralise the lower-high structure
USDCAD has ground lower since Monday's open, with the dominant leg down during Wednesday's NY session after soft US PPI and a hawkish BoC hold left the Loonie firm on elevated crude. Price is now consolidating just above the four-week low near 1.4024, capped below EMA20 with RSI(14) stuck in the mid-40s. Lower highs remain intact but downside momentum has flattened into a tight base.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4077 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4024 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.40 psych handle
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open near 1.4170, with the dominant leg lower coming during yesterday's NY session after the soft US PPI print and a firm BoC hold. Price is now consolidating in a tight band above the 1.40244 week low, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stuck in the mid-40s. The 1.40500 range top has capped attempts through the Asia session.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40769
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40500 range top would ease the downside pressure
Break below 1.40244 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, stepping down through successive NY sessions with the sharpest leg mid-week after soft US PPI and a hawkish BoC hold pressured the pair from ~1.4150 toward the 1.4024 week low. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4024–1.4050 band with RSI(14) holding in the mid-40s and price capped below the EMA20 near 1.4050. Compression near the lows follows the dominant down-move; range floor at 1.4039 still respected.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC today (HIGH) could materially shift this read
Hourly close below 1.40244 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.4050 EMA20 area would neutralise the downtrend read
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's 1.417 open, pressured by firm oil and a hawkish BoC hold while soft US PPI kept the dollar heavy. The pair has based between 1.4030 and 1.4077 over the last day, coiling just above the 1.4039 four-week low with RSI(14) recovering off oversold into the mid-40s. Price sits under EMA20 and EMA50, so rallies into 1.4077 have been capped by the descending sequence of lower highs.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4113, 1.4170
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could jolt this range; a beat risks a squeeze back toward the 9d ema fail near 1.4113
Hourly close below the 1.4039 four-week low confirms continuation to 1.40244 then 1.4000
Sustained break above 1.4077 breaks the week's lower-high line
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from 1.4174 toward the 1.4024 week low as bullish oil and a soft US PPI print kept the Loonie firm. Price is now consolidating in the low 1.4040s, pinned to a flattening EMA20 with RSI(14) hovering in the low-40s. Recovery attempts through the NY session yesterday capped repeatedly near 1.4059, keeping the structure of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.40244, 1.40305
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.4059, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.40244 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40590 would break the run of lower highs
USDCAD sold off through the week from ~1.417 to a four-week low near 1.4039, the sharp leg landing in NY hours as a hawkish BoC hold met the soft US PPI miss. Price has since stalled into a tight consolidation just above that low, capped by 1.4059, with RSI(14) sitting in the mid-40s below both EMAs. The pivot at 1.41 has flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4076, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.4059 swing high would ease the downside pressure
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs, lower lows; consolidating at range floor.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, with CAD the outperformer on firm oil and soft US CPI/PPI trimming Fed hike bets. Price broke the 1.4100 pivot during Tuesday's NY session and printed a four-week low near 1.4039, since grinding sideways above it into today's session. RSI(14) sits mid-40s and price holds below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the sequence of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.4100 pivot would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.4039 confirms continuation toward the 1.4024 session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week from Monday's ~1.4170 open to a four-week low near 1.4024, as CAD outperformed on oil strength and hawkish BoC while soft US CPI/PPI trimmed the dollar. Since the NY session yesterday price has flattened into a tight 1.4024-1.4065 consolidation, with RSI(14) recovering off lows toward 46 and price hugging EMA(20). The 1.4100 pivot broke earlier this week and now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.4024, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 1.4100 pivot invalidates the consolidation read
USDCAD has trended lower all week off Monday's ~1.4155 open, with the dominant leg down landing on the BoC hold and soft US PPI that carried price to a four-week low near 1.4024. Since then the pair has consolidated in a tight 1.4024–1.4053 band, holding just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering toward the mid-40s. The 1.4100 pivot remains the ceiling capping any bounce.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4024
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4077, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close below 1.4024 confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.4077 opens the path back to the 1.4100 pivot
Lower highs into consolidation above four-week low.
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, sliding from ~1.4160 to a four-week low near 1.4024 as CAD rode oil strength and a hawkish BoC hold while soft US PPI weighed on the dollar. The last day of NY-into-Asia trade has flattened into a tight consolidation just above 1.4039, with RSI(14) recovering into the mid-40s and price hugging EMA(20). Supply capped the bounce at 1.4077 during yesterday's NY session.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244, 1.4043
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4130, 1.4160
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could break this consolidation
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4077 opens the path back toward the 1.4130 9-ema
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul is the next major CAD driver
USDCAD has trended lower all week, with the dominant leg down into Tuesday's NY session dragging price from 1.4175 to a four-week low at 1.40244 as CAD rode oil strength and the hawkish BoC hold while soft US PPI weighed on the USD. Price is now consolidating just above that low, coiling between 1.4035 and 1.4053 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward the mid-40s. EMA(20) is being tested from below as pullbacks stall beneath the 1.4059/1.4077 lower-high band.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039, 1.40039
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4065, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.40244 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim above 1.40769 lower high would break the descending structure
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from ~1.4174 to a four-week low at 1.40244 as CAD rode oil strength and a hawkish BoC hold while soft US PPI pressured the Dollar. Price is now consolidating below the broken 1.4100 pivot, chopping between 1.40244 and the 1.4059 session high with RSI recovering off oversold. Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.40769, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40769 breaks the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.40244 confirms a fresh lower low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could shift this read materially
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from ~1.4174 to a four-week low near 1.4024 as oil-driven CAD strength and soft US PPI weighed. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4024–1.4077 band below EMA20, with the sharp NY-session drop mid-week doing most of the damage. RSI(14) has recovered off its lows without price reclaiming the 20-EMA, keeping the corrective tone intact.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.40769, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.40769 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 1.40244 week low confirms continuation of the downtrend
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40505
USDCAD has trended lower through the week, breaking the 1.4100 pivot mid-week after the BoC's hawkish hold and back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI prints, with the decline extending to a four-week low near 1.4024. Price is now consolidating in the 1.4030–1.4050 zone, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stuck in the lower half. The 1.40769 prior high has capped the last attempt to recover.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4115, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.40769 would break the descending lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 1.40244 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 1.4000
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) and US Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, sliding from ~1.4175 Monday to a four-week low near 1.4024 as CAD outperformed on a hawkish BoC hold and firm oil, with softer US CPI/PPI adding pressure. The break below the 1.4100 pivot into the NY session accelerated the move; price has since consolidated just above the week low and is hugging EMA20 with RSI cycling in the mid-40s. EMA50 continues to cap from overhead.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4115
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4077 descending resistance would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower since midweek, sliding from the 1.417 area to a near-monthly low as a softer USD post-CPI/PPI and firm oil kept the Loonie bid through the in-line BoC hold. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.4039 triangle base, with a chain of lower highs capping bounces and RSI(14) hovering near the mid-40s. EMA(50) sits well overhead while price straddles EMA(20), reflecting the stall after the impulse down.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4039 triangle base opens the path to the 1.40244 week low
Reclaim of 1.40769 prior high would break the run of lower highs
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today is the key catalyst that could shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower all week, with the dominant leg down through the NY session after the soft US CPI/PPI misses and a firm oil bid kept the Loonie supported into the in-line BoC hold. Price broke the range floor and printed a near-monthly low at 1.40244 before demand stepped in, lifting it back toward 1.4049. The pair sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the low-40s.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4065
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.4039 triangle base confirms seller control toward 1.40244 week low
Reclaim of 1.4065 prior high would challenge the descending lower-high sequence
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, holding at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40373
Lower highs, lower lows into week low.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, with the dominant leg down during the NY session as soft US CPI and PPI pressed the dollar while firm oil kept CAD bid. Price broke sub-1.4055 and has since consolidated into the Asia session just above the 1.4024 week low, capped by EMA20 near 1.4065. RSI(14) sits around 41, mid-range, with no bullish divergence at the lows yet.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.40769
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.4077 prior high needed to break the lower-high sequence
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower since Monday's open, sliding from 1.4175 to sub-1.4050 as soft US CPI/PPI knocked the dollar and firm oil kept CAD bid into the BoC hold. Price now consolidates in a tight band just above the 1.40 psych level, capped by EMA20 near 1.4048 with RSI cycling in the low 40s. The week low at 1.40244 has held on repeated tests during the Asia session.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4065, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close below 1.40000 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.40650 challenges the week's lower-high structure
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC — a beat could revive USD bid and lift off the lows
USD/CAD extended lower through the week, sliding from ~1.4174 to a near-monthly low at 1.4024 on firm oil and back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI prints; the BoC hold at 2.25% was neutral. Price is now consolidating just above 1.4024 with RSI(14) recovering off lows but capped, and both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sitting above. Rallies into 1.4048 have been sold, keeping the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.40769, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4077 prior high would break the descending lower-high line
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset this read
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC — key USD swing factor
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40371
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD has trended lower all week, extending from ~1.4174 to a 4-week low near 1.4024 as soft US CPI/PPI weighed on the dollar and firm oil kept CAD bid into the BoC hold. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4035–1.4045 band through the Asia session, holding just above the 1.4024 swing low with RSI(14) hovering in the low 40s. Both EMAs cap price from above and rallies have found supply at each lower high.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4077 needed to break the lower-high sequence
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the week's key catalysts for this pair