USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 16 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 38 · price 1.40488
Lower highs, lower lows since mid-window peak.
Downtrend intact with successive lower highs and lower lows since the mid-window peak near 1.4248; the break below the 1.41 pivot accelerated the decline to a four-week low at 1.4010. The move is USD-led — soft US CPI/PPI pared Fed-hike bets and pressured the dollar broadly. ATR is contained after the drop, with price consolidating just above the 1.4010 low.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4130
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul could materially shift this read
A close back above the 1.4130 9d ema would challenge the downtrend
Failure to hold 1.4010 opens the path toward the 50d ma near 1.3970
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 41 · price 1.40488
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating at range low.
Downtrend intact with a clean run of lower highs and lower lows; the pair broke the 1.4130 pivot and slid to a four-week low near 1.4010 as the USD softened on cooler US CPI/PPI. ATR(14) has expanded through the decline, and price is now consolidating just above the swing low after a modest bounce off 1.4010. Momentum is heavy but not yet oversold, leaving the low as the immediate structural test.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.4010 opens the 50-day ma near 1.3970
Reclaim of the 1.4130 pivot would challenge the downtrend structure
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; broke below the 1.41 range floor.
USDCAD has rolled over into a clean H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows and breaking below the 1.41 range that held for two weeks; softer US CPI/PPI and the BoC hold drove the slide to a 4-week low near 1.4010. ATR(14) has expanded on the impulsive leg lower and price sits well below both EMAs, with only a shallow bounce off the 1.4010 base into the close.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.4000 opens the path toward the prior-cycle supports
Reclaim of the 1.4130 prior-support level would neutralise the breakout read
Canada CPI (Jul 20) is the next domestic catalyst and could reset this read
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating at range base.
USDCAD has rolled over through the entire window, printing successive lower highs from the 1.4248 peak and breaking below 1.41 to a 4-week low at 1.4010 — CAD firm after the BoC hold and soft US CPI/PPI cut Fed tightening bets. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4024-1.4077 band just above the lows, with ATR(14) easing off the sell-off's expansion. EMA20 and EMA50 remain overhead, keeping structure firmly to the downside.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4010 opens the 1.4000 psych handle
A close back above the 1.4077 range high, then 1.4130, would break the lower-high sequence
Canada CPI (Jul 20) is the next domestic catalyst that could shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending to lows · RSI 35 · price 1.40288
Lower highs, lower lows; breakdown below 1.4039.
USDCAD has rolled over into a clean H4 downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows off the mid-window 1.4238 peak, and has now closed below the 1.4039 four-week support cited as the range floor. Soft US inflation prints and firm oil have kept CAD bid, and price is consolidating just above the 1.4024 swing low. ATR(14) near 23 pips shows contained volatility as price grinds at the lows rather than a violent extension.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.4024 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.4077 then 1.4130 prior range would neutralise the breakdown read
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the first-tier domestic catalyst that could reshape this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 35 · price 1.40288
Lower highs, lower lows; broke below range floor.
USDCAD is in a clear H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4248 top and breaking beneath the 1.4039 four-week floor cited as prior range support. Soft US inflation prints plus oil-supported CAD have kept the pair pinned near the lows, closing at 1.40288 just above the 1.4024 swing low. ATR has expanded through the recent leg, consistent with trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych opens the path toward 1.3970
H4 close back above 1.4130 prior pivot would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.40455
Lower highs, lower lows; basing above swing low.
USDCAD extended a multi-day downtrend, breaking sub-1.4050 after soft US CPI/PPI misses and a hawkish BoC hold combined with an oil-led CAD bid. Price is now basing just above the 1.4024 swing low with RSI depressed and both EMAs capping overhead. ATR is elevated from the impulse leg down, and price is consolidating rather than extending.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.4130 would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 1.4000
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 38 · price 1.40455
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating at range low.
USDCAD has been carving lower highs and lower lows since the mid-window rejection near 1.4248, and the decline accelerated after the soft US PPI print and a hawkish BoC hold, breaking clean below the 1.41 handle. Price now sits pinned at the 1.4040 four-week low area, with the last few bars compressing between 1.4024 and 1.4060. Momentum stays heavy with price trading below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens room toward 1.4000
H4 close back above 1.4130 prior support would neutralise the downtrend read
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Monday is the primary CAD catalyst ahead
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.40469
Lower highs, lower lows since mid-June.
USDCAD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, carving lower highs and lower lows since mid-June; the break below the 1.4100 pivot accelerated selling to a four-week low at 1.4024, helped by firm oil supporting CAD and a softer USD after back-to-back CPI/PPI misses. Price is now consolidating just above that low with EMA20 and EMA50 stacked overhead as resistance, while ATR eases from the impulse leg. Canada CPI on Jul 20 is the next structural catalyst.
Support: 1.4024, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.4130 (9-ema) would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4024 4-week low opens the path toward 1.3970 (50-dma)
US Retail Sales today and Canada CPI Jul 20 could materially shift this read
USDCAD is in a clean downtrend, printing successive lower highs and lower lows after breaking below the 1.4100 pivot to a four-week low near 1.4039. The move is driven by CAD strength on oil and a hawkish-hold BoC alongside back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI prints weighing on the dollar. ATR(14) is expanding as the breakdown extends and price sits pinned below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4024
Resistance: 1.4100
What it said to watch
A reclaim of 1.4100 would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4039/1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low leg
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Canada CPI Jul 20 is the next major structural catalyst
USDCAD broke below the multi-week 1.4150-1.4248 range floor and accelerated to fresh 4-week lows near the 1.40 psych, with CAD firm on the oil bid and the soft US CPI/PPI slide. ATR(14) has expanded through the breakdown, and price sits well below both EMAs after clean lower-high structure. The 1.40244 swing low is the immediate reference into the round-number test.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.4130, 1.41959
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 1.40000 extends the breakdown; a reclaim of 1.40740 questions the range break
Failure to hold sub-1.40 opens a rebound toward the 9d ema ~1.4130
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD broke down from the multi-week 1.4150-1.4240 range and accelerated to 4-week lows near 1.4024, pressured by the oil bid and the soft US CPI/PPI misses that trimmed hawkish-Fed pricing. Lower-high/lower-low structure is firmly established and ATR(14) is expanding, consistent with a trend extending rather than compressing. Price is basing just above the 1.4024 swing low with a shallow bounce into 1.4077.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4130, 1.4190
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4024 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.4077 needed to challenge the lower-highs line
US Retail Sales today 12:30 UTC and Canada CPI Mon could shift this read