USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 16 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Range, momentum flat · RSI 42 · price 1.40386
Rally to session high faded, now consolidating mid-range.
NY session pushed to a 1.40577 session high before rejection dragged price back into the range; USD/CAD now drifts near 1.4038 in a thin Asian session with RSI(14) mid-40s. Price holds above the 1.40364 swing low, capped by the 1.40420 recent high.
Support: 1.40364, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4052, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.40364 swing low opens the path toward the 1.40101 session low
Reclaim of 1.40520 swing high would put the 1.40577 session high back in play
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) could reshape this read into next week
Price rejected the 1.4058 session high during the NY-Asia handover and drifted back to a tight 1.4037-1.4043 consolidation, now sitting just below EMA20/50. Volume and ATR have compressed hard into the Asia session — no setup in play, RSI neutral near 44.
Support: 1.40367, 1.40112
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Break above 1.40525 reopens the 1.4058 session high
Loss of 1.40367 exposes the 1.40112 swing low
Volume/ATR expansion at London open would break the current low-vol drift
Lower highs since 1.4058 top, drifting into low-vol close.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4058 session high and is grinding lower into thin late-session/Asia hours, last near 1.4038 with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-30s. Price sits below EMA20/50; the move is compressing into a tight 1.4037–1.4042 band on collapsing volume.
Support: 1.40367, 1.4023, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Break of 1.40367 session low opens 1.4023 prior low
Reclaim of 1.40525 lower high negates the fade
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next material catalyst
23:31 UTC
Pulled back off session high, drifting · RSI 43 · price 1.40379
Consolidation after rally to 1.40577, holding above 1.40367.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.40101 day low to a session high at 1.40577, then faded and is now drifting near 1.40379 in thin late-session hours, RSI(14) mid-range. CAD stayed firm on oil support after the BoC hold, but the pullback is low-volume and range-bound above 1.40367.
Support: 1.40367, 1.4023, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40367 opens the path back toward 1.40230
Reclaim of 1.40525 would revive the push to the 1.40577 session high
UoM sentiment/inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could shift this read
23:17 UTC
Range, drifting off session high · RSI 44 · price 1.40407
Recovery off session low stalled, consolidating mid-range.
Thin Asia-session dealing after USDCAD faded from the 1.40577 session high back to 1.4040, holding a mid-range balance near four-week lows on firm oil and a heavy USD. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 44; no setup in play in the overnight lull.
Support: 1.40374, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40525 swing high reopens the session-high test
Break below 1.40374 swing low exposes the 1.40101 session low
UoM Consumer Sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Consolidation mid-range after session-high rejection.
USDCAD swept down to 1.40101 then rallied to reject the 1.40577 session high, and has since drifted back into the mid-range around 1.404 on thin late-session volume. Price sits just below the EMA20/EMA50 cluster with RSI mid-range; no directional structure in play, ranging 1.40384-1.40525.
Support: 1.40384, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 1.40525 reopens the 1.40577 session high
Break below 1.40384 exposes the 1.40320 swing low
UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could break the range
23:02 UTC
Pullback, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.40417
Consolidating below session high after rejection.
USDCAD faded from the 1.40577 session high and has stalled around 1.4042 in thin late-session/Asia trade, the move USD-led as the dollar steadied off its lows. RSI(14) sits neutral near 46 and price is holding just under the 1.40384 range floor's twin at recent lows; no setup in play.
Support: 1.40384, 1.40112, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40384 exposes the 1.40112 session low
Reclaim of 1.40525 puts the 1.40577 session high back in play
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) is the next structural catalyst
23:02 UTC
Range, drifting off session high · RSI 44 · price 1.40417
Consolidation after rejection from 1.4058.
USD/CAD rejected the 1.4058 session high and has drifted back to 1.4042, holding a tight range through thin Asia hours. The move is USD-led — the retail-sales/claims beat lifted the dollar off its lows — with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and price sitting just under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.40384, 1.40112
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4038 opens the 1.4011 session low
Reclaim of 1.4050 puts the 1.4058 high back in play
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next material catalyst
22:46 UTC
Range, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.4042
Pullback into range after rally stalled at session high.
USDCAD rallied to a session high at 1.4058 then faded, drifting back to 1.4042 in thin late-session trade; move remains USD-led after the Philly Fed beat let the dollar bounce off its lows. Price sits mid-range between the 4wk low near 1.4038 and the session high, RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained break below 1.4038 reopens the session low at 1.4010
Reclaim of the 1.4058 session high shifts focus to the 1.41 pivot
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next material catalyst for this read
22:46 UTC
Ranging, no clear direction · RSI 49 · price 1.4042
Range-bound, mid-range drift.
USD/CAD probing four-week lows near 1.4040 in a USD-led move, ranging roughly 1.4010–1.4058 over the last 24h. Buyers reclaimed the range top to 1.4058 during NY hours before fading back to mid-range; late-session volume is thin with RSI flat near 49, no setup in play.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Break below 1.4010 confirms a lower low and reopens sub-1.40
M15 close above 1.4058 reclaims the session high
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) is the next material catalyst for this read
22:31 UTC
Pullback after session-high rejection · RSI 43 · price 1.40399
Lower highs since 1.4058, holding above 1.4038.
USDCAD rallied off the day low near 1.4010 into a session high at 1.40577 before rejection dragged it back to ~1.4040; the pair is probing four-week lows as the move stays USD-led. RSI(14) has cooled to the low-40s and price sits below EMA20/50, with late-session volume thinning out.
Support: 1.4038, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4038 exposes a retest toward the 1.4010 day low
Reclaim of 1.40525 reopens the 1.40577 session high
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next material catalyst for this pair
USDCAD rallied off 1.40101 to a session high at 1.40577, then faded back into the 1.40384-1.40400 zone on thin post-NY liquidity. Price is retesting the session low with RSI(14) mid-range, no momentum extreme in play.
Support: 1.40384, 1.40283, 1.40112
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40384 opens the 1.40283 50% fib area
Reclaim of 1.40520 puts the session high back in focus
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next domestic CAD catalyst
Recovered to 1.40577 then faded, consolidating near lows.
Late NY into Asia on thin volume; USD/CAD rejected the session high at 1.40577 and faded back to 1.40389, holding just above the 1.40374 recent low. Move is USD-led after the firm US Philly Fed/claims bounce; RSI(14) mid-40s with price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.40374, 1.40319, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40374 opens 1.40319 then 1.40230
Reclaim of 1.40525 needed to re-test the 1.40577 session high
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset this read
22:16 UTC
Pullback after rejection at session high · RSI 41 · price 1.40389
Retracing toward session lows.
USDCAD rallied to a session high at 1.40577 before sellers stepped in, and price has drifted back to the session-low zone near 1.40374 through quiet late/Asia hours. Move is USD-led — the dollar bounced off its lows on resilient US data — with RSI(14) sitting mid-low around 40.
Support: 1.40374, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40374 opens the session low at 1.40100
Reclaim of 1.40525 puts the 1.40577 session high back in play
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this pair
Lower highs off 1.4058, holding above session low.
USDCAD rejected the session high at 1.4058 and drifted back to 1.4039 into thin late-NY/Asia hours, sitting near four-week lows in a USD-led move. Price has slipped below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) around 41, retracing about half the earlier 1.4010-1.4058 recovery.
Support: 1.4033, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4058
What it said to watch
Loss of the fib 50% at 1.4033 reopens the session low at 1.4010
Reclaim of 1.4050 prior high would negate the lower-high sequence
Thin liquidity into Asia open can distort M15 structure
22:02 UTC
Range, fading off session high · RSI 43 · price 1.4039
Recovery off session low stalling, pulling back.
NY session rebounded from the 1.4010 four-week low to a session high of 1.4058, then faded back to 1.4039 with rejection into the late-session low-volume tape. Price now sits mid-range and back below EMA20/50, RSI(14) cooling near 43.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4010 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4000 psych
Reclaim of 1.40577 session high reopens the upside
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and Fri UoM inflation expectations could reset this range
21:46 UTC
Pullback from session high · RSI 43 · price 1.40412
Faded off 1.40577, drifting into support.
NY session drove USDCAD to a 1.40577 high before fading; lower highs into the thin rollover print near 1.40412, RSI(14) mid-40s. USD-led move stalling as price probes the 1.40384 session low with liquidity thinning into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.40384, 1.4032, 1.40112
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40384 opens the 1.40320 swing low
Reclaim of 1.40525 needed to re-test the 1.40577 session high
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
Recovered off 1.4010 low, now drifting back toward the lows.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4010 session low to 1.4058 before sellers stepped in, and price has since drifted back to 1.4041 near the four-week lows as the firmer USD keeps CAD capped. RSI(14) cooling around 41, late-session volume thin.
Support: 1.40384, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40384 reopens the 1.4032 / 1.4010 session lows
Reclaim of 1.40525 revives the push back toward 1.40577
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next material catalyst for this pair
21:31 UTC
Range, fading from session high · RSI 44 · price 1.40391
Pullback within intraday range after rejection at 1.4056.
NY session pushed to a session high of 1.4056 before fading back to 1.4039, the move USD-led as the dollar steadied off its one-month low; USD/CAD continues to probe four-week lows. Price now sits below EMA20 with RSI cooling to the mid-40s, and the final bars are thin and flat into the close.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.40558
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4032 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4010 swing low
M15 close back above 1.4048 (ema20) reasserts the intraday range top toward 1.4056
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC are the next material catalysts
21:31 UTC
Rally faded, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.40391
Retracing intraday rally toward 50% fib.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4010 session low to reject at 1.4058, then drifted back to 1.4039 into thin late-NY/Asia hours, now sitting on the 38.2-50% fib of that move. RSI(14) cooled to the low-40s; move remains USD-led with the pair probing its four-week low zone.
Support: 1.4034, 1.4022, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.4058
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4022 opens a deeper retrace toward the 1.4010 session low
Reclaim of 1.4058 session high resumes the intraday advance
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4010 during NY hours and rallied to a session high of 1.4057 before rejecting; price has since faded to 1.4041 with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-40s. The rebound is USD-led — the pair snapped its losing streak on a firmer dollar and Middle East risk — but the late-session drift and thin volume leave it mid-range.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4040 reopens the 1.4010 session low
USDCAD rebounded from the 1.40101 session low to 1.40577 as the dollar found a footing off its one-month low, then rejected there and eased back to 1.40424. Late-NY bars are flat and thin, holding above the 1.40405 recent low with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.40405, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40405 exposes the 1.40320 swing low
Reclaim of 1.40525 reopens the 1.40577 session high
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset this range
21:03 UTC
Pullback from session high · RSI 41 · price 1.4041
Retracing the rally off session low.
USD/CAD rallied from the session low at 1.4010 to a high of 1.4058, then rejected and stalled; last bars slipped back to 1.4041, RSI(14) cooling toward 41. Move is USD-led — the pair bounced off four-week lows on a firmer dollar; now unwinding into the NY afternoon.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.4058
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4032 confirms a deeper pullback toward the 1.4010 session low
Reclaim of 1.4052 puts the 1.4058 session high back in play
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) is the next material catalyst for this pair
21:03 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY rally · RSI 42 · price 1.4041
Faded off session high back toward the four-week low.
NY session rallied off the London low at 1.4010 to a session high of 1.40577, then faded through late NY back to the 1.4040 four-week low area, RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s. Supply capped the move at 1.4058 and price is now sitting on the prior swing low.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.4052
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4039 confirms a lower-low and reopens 1.4010
Reclaim of 1.40577 negates the pullback read
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Rally stalling, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.40427
Consolidating below session high after recovery off lows.
USDCAD recovered off the 1.40101 NY session low to tag a session high at 1.40558, then stalled and slipped to 1.40427 on the last bar as RSI(14) cooled to the mid-40s. Move is USD-led per the digest after soft CPI/PPI; price now sits mid-range between 1.40320 support and the 1.40558 session high.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40558, 1.40525
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40320 swing low reopens the 1.40101 session low
Reclaim of 1.40558 session high resumes the recovery leg
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday read
20:46 UTC
Pullback after NY rally stalled · RSI 46 · price 1.40427
Off the session high, range broke lower.
USDCAD rallied through NY hours to a session high of 1.40577, then rolled over; the last bar slid to 1.40427 as the 1.4052–1.4055 range broke lower. Move is USD-led, with the pair still probing the four-week low zone around 1.4040.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40525, 1.40577
What it said to watch
A sustained break below 1.4040 opens the session low at 1.40101
Reclaim of 1.40525 range top puts the 1.40577 high back in play
NY session dipped to 1.4010 mid-morning then recovered sharply to a 1.4058 session high on a firmer USD. Price has since gone flat, consolidating 1.4046–1.4053 into the late session with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4058
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4046 opens the 1.4032 swing low
Break above 1.4058 resumes the recovery leg
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset this read
20:31 UTC
Recovery off session low, consolidating near highs · RSI 56 · price 1.40497
Higher lows into 1.4050 after tag of 1.40577.
USDCAD rallied through the NY session to a high of 1.40577 before fading, now consolidating around 1.4050 with RSI(14) neutral near 56. Move is USD-led as the dollar sits near a one-month low; buyers held the 1.4046 area on the pullback and session lows at 1.40101 remain distant.
Support: 1.40459, 1.40222, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 reopens the upside; failure to hold 1.40459 exposes 1.40222
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could reset this read
20:17 UTC
Recovered off lows, consolidating · RSI 54 · price 1.40503
Range after intraday rally, higher lows intact.
NY session rallied off the 1.40101 session low to a session high at 1.40577, then stalled and is consolidating around 1.4050 into the late US hours. USD/CAD snapped its recent slide as the dollar steadied near one-month lows; RSI(14) neutral around 54 with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.40459, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40459 swing low reopens the 1.40101 session low
Reclaim of 1.40577 session high extends the intraday recovery
Fed's Jefferson speaks 23:00 UTC — could shift USD tone in the next bars
Consolidating below session high after bounce off session low.
NY session bounced off the 1.40101 session low and rallied to 1.40577, with USD steadying near a one-month low after in-line US retail sales. Price now consolidating around 1.4050, holding above the 1.40459 swing low; RSI(14) mid-range near 53.
Support: 1.40459, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 extends the recovery leg
Loss of 1.40459 reopens the 1.40101 session low
Fed's Jefferson speaks 23:00 UTC (~3h) — could shift this read
USDCAD carved a session low near 1.4011 around midday then rallied through NY hours to tag 1.40577 at 17:00 UTC, a move digest reads as USD-led rather than CAD-led. Price stalled at that high and is now consolidating near 1.4048, holding above the 1.4046 swing low with RSI(14) flat near 51.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4010 NY swing low to a session high at 1.4058, then rolled into a tight consolidation near 1.4048 in late NY hours — a USD-led bounce off four-week lows rather than a CAD move. RSI(14) neutral near 51, momentum cooling inside the range.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4040, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4058
What it said to watch
close below 1.4046 session low reopens the 1.4040 4wk low
reclaim of 1.4058 session high resumes the intraday advance
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul is the next domestic catalyst
USDCAD bounced from the four-week low near 1.4010 during NY hours back to a session high of 1.40577, a USD-led move as the greenback steadied off its lows. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4048-1.4055 band, RSI(14) flat near 53 after the recovery.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Break above session high 1.40577 extends the recovery toward 1.4130
Loss of 1.4040 reopens the 1.4010 session low
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver
19:46 UTC
Recovery off lows, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.4049
Consolidating below session high after rebound.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4010 during NY hours then rallied to a session high of 1.40577, a USD-led bounce with the pair still probing four-week lows. Price is now consolidating around 1.4050, RSI(14) neutral near 53, holding above EMA20/50.
Rally off session low, consolidating below session high.
USDCAD rallied through NY hours off the intraday session low at 1.40101 to a session high of 1.40577, a USD-led bounce that snapped the pair's recent slide near four-week lows. Price is now consolidating around 1.40490 above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-50s; the session high capped the last push.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4040, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 extends the rally leg higher
Loss of the 4wk low at 1.40400 reopens the 1.40101 session low
Canada CPI Mon and UoM Fri are the next macro triggers for this pair
Recovered off session low, consolidating below session high.
USDCAD carved a session low at 1.40101 around the NY open then rallied to a session high of 1.40577 as the USD steadied off its recent lows. Price is now consolidating near 1.405, holding above the 1.40459 swing low with RSI(14) cooling back to neutral.
Support: 1.40459, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 extends the intraday recovery
Failure to hold 1.40459 exposes the 1.40320 prior low
Rebound into session high, now consolidating below it.
USDCAD carved a session low at 1.4010 during the NY session then rallied hard to 1.4058 as the pair snapped its losing streak on firmer USD and Middle East risk. Price has since stalled and is consolidating around 1.4048 just below the session high, RSI(14) cooling back to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4030, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4052
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4058 session high extends the recovery toward 1.4070
Failure to hold 1.4046 swing low reopens 1.4030 prior range
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could shift the USD read
Rebounded off 1.4010 low, consolidating below session high.
USD/CAD rebounded off the 1.4010 session low to tag 1.40577 through NY hours as the USD steadied on a strong jobless-claims print and Philly Fed beat, snapping its recent losing streak. Now consolidating around 1.4048 with RSI(14) back near neutral; session high still capping.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4030, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.4058
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4058 opens continuation toward the 1.41 pivot
Failure to hold 1.4030 reopens the 1.4010 session low
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset this read
USDCAD snapped its losing streak, recovering off the 1.4010 low through the NY session and tagging 1.4058 before easing back to 1.4047 as the USD-led move stalls. Price now hovering at the EMA20 after the pullback held above the 1.4040 four-week low; RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4040 reopens the 1.4010 swing low
M15 close above 1.4058 session high extends the recovery
USDCAD rallied through NY hours off the 1.4010 session low to tag 1.4058, then rejected and is now consolidating in the upper half of the range near 1.4047. The bounce is USD-led after firm jobless claims and a large Philly Fed beat steadied the buck off its one-month low; RSI(14) has cooled back to neutral.
Support: 1.4042, 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4058 opens continuation higher
Loss of 1.4042 exposes 1.4032 then the 1.4010 session low
UoM sentiment + inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset this read
V-recovery off session low, now ranging under 1.4058.
NY session swept down to 1.40101 around the open before a sharp V-recovery to the session high at 1.40577, in line with the USD-led snap higher off four-week lows. Price now consolidating 1.40490-1.40560, RSI(14) cooling from the rally near 57.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40535
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 extends the recovery leg
Loss of 1.40490 range low reopens 1.40320 swing low
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could shift the USD read
NY session pushed USDCAD off the 1.40101 low to a session high at 1.40577, a USD-led bounce after in-line US retail sales steadied the buck. Price is now consolidating near 1.40500 with RSI(14) cooling from the highs; the rising sequence of higher lows remains intact.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40490 consol base cracks the intraday higher-low chain
Break above 1.40577 session high extends the uptrend
Fed's Jefferson (23:00 UTC) could shift the USD read
Higher lows off session low, consolidating under highs.
USDCAD recovered from the session low at 1.4010 through NY hours, printing higher lows and topping at the session high 1.40577 on firmer USD and oil-driven safe-haven demand after CAD probed four-week lows near 1.4040. Price is now consolidating just below the high around 1.4053, RSI cooling from the push; the 1.40577 session high is the immediate cap.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.4060
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 opens the path toward the 1.4060 round number
Loss of the rising support and 1.4040 4wk low undoes the recovery
Fri UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift the USD tone
Recovery off session low, holding below 1.4058 high.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4010 mid-window and rallied through NY hours to a session high of 1.4058 as the USD firmed on safe-haven flows and in-line US retail sales. Price is now consolidating just under that high, RSI(14) cooling around 59; the four-week low at 1.4040 is the pivot below.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4040, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4060
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.4058 opens the 1.4060 round number
Loss of 1.4050 puts the 1.4040 four-week low back in play
CAD CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) is the next material catalyst for this pair
Higher lows off session low, stalling near session high.
USDCAD rebounded through NY hours from the session low near 1.4010 to a 1.4058 high, a USD-led bounce on safe-haven demand per the macro read. Price is now consolidating around 1.4050 after rejection at 1.4058, holding above rising intraday support.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4058 extends the recovery leg
Loss of 1.4040 session support puts the rising-support line near 1.4032 back in play
Failure to hold 1.4032 rising support reopens 1.4010 session low
18:17 UTC
Uptrend, pullback from session high · RSI 60 · price 1.40505
Higher lows off session low, rejection at 1.4058.
USDCAD rebounded through the NY session off the 1.4010 session low back toward the 1.40577 high, the move USD-led on Middle East risk and firmer US data. Rejection at 1.4058 saw price ease to 1.40505; RSI(14) near 60, holding a higher-low chain.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40577 extends the intraday recovery
Loss of 1.40400 4wk-low area reopens the 1.40101 session low
USDCAD recovered off the 1.40100 NY-morning low to a 1.40577 session high, firming on Middle East safe-haven USD flows and softer Canada housing starts. Price is consolidating just under that high around 1.4054, holding above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-range, room to run before hot.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4039, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
Break and hold above 1.40577 session high extends the recovery leg
Loss of 1.40500 swing low re-exposes the 1.40390 four-week low
Canada CPI (Mon) and Fri Michigan sentiment could reset the read
USDCAD recovered through the NY session off the four-week low near 1.4010, printing a chain of higher lows and tagging a session high of 1.40577 before easing to 1.4054. USD firmer on Middle East safe-haven flows; RSI(14) around 61, hot but not extended.
Support: 1.40493, 1.4039, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 opens continuation higher
Loss of 1.40390 breaks the higher-low chain
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next material catalyst
NY session recovered from the 1.40101 low to a session high at 1.40577, USD firming on safe-haven flows and firm US data (Philly Fed, jobless claims). Price now 1.40528 with RSI(14) mid-60s; a chain of higher lows is holding above the 1.40460 pullback zone.
Support: 1.4046, 1.40101, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 session high opens the 1.41000 pivot
Loss of 1.40460 pullback would threaten a retest of the 1.40101 session low
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Fri 14:00 UTC) could shift this read
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum into NY afternoon · RSI 64 · price 1.40528
Higher highs off session low, breakout above prior range.
USDCAD rebounded through the NY session from the 1.40112 session low back toward the 1.40577 session high, extending the bounce off the four-week low near 1.4039 as Middle East safe-haven flows firmed the dollar. Price holds above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-60s — hot but not extended. Currently consolidating just under the session high.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4039, 1.40112
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.4060
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40577 opens the path to the 1.40600 round number
Loss of 1.40500 puts the 1.4039 four-week low back in focus
Fri Michigan Consumer Sentiment (14:00 UTC) could shift USD direction
Higher lows since 1.4010, tagging session high 1.4058.
USD/CAD rebounded off the 1.4010 session low through the NY session, tagging a 1.40577 session high before easing to 1.4052 on a safe-haven USD bid tied to Iran headlines and pre-US data. Higher lows intact and price holds above EMA20/50; RSI cooling from the push into 1.4058.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4010, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
Rejection at 1.40577 capping — failure to reclaim keeps the rebound contained
Close below 1.4039 breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.3970 area
Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could shift USD direction into the next session
Higher highs off intraday low, holding near session high.
NY session drove USD/CAD off the 1.4010 low to a session high at 1.40577 as Middle East safe-haven flows and firm US data (Philly Fed 41.4, claims 208K) propped the dollar, RSI(14) running hot near 67. Price now consolidating just under 1.4058 after the push, still above the reclaimed 1.4039 four-week area.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4020, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4075
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.4058 opens the path toward 1.4075
Loss of 1.4039 reopens the 1.4020/1.4010 lows and negates the recovery
Michigan sentiment (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift USD tone
NY session drove USDCAD to a fresh session high at 1.40577 after buyers stepped in repeatedly off the 1.40101 low, building a clean chain of higher lows; RSI(14) is hot near 70. The push reflects a firmer USD on oil and safe-haven flows fighting the week's dovish-Fed lean, with the 1.40533 prior high now cleared as the breakout base sits around 1.40460.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.40460 breaks the breakout retest and the higher-low chain
Fed's Schmid (17:25 UTC) could shift the USD read intra-session
17:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, RSI hot · RSI 71 · price 1.40547
Higher lows off session low into fresh session high.
USDCAD rallied through the NY session, printing a fresh session high at 1.40577 with RSI(14) running near 70. The bid tracks a firmer USD on oil / Middle East safe-haven flows after the pair based at the 1.40101 session low; higher lows have held the advance.
Support: 1.4047, 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40577
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40577 extends the session high push
Failure to hold 1.40470 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
Fed's Schmid (17:25 UTC) and Jefferson (23:00 UTC) could shift the USD read
17:03 UTC
Recovery off session low, momentum up · RSI 65 · price 1.40498
Higher lows since sweep of 1.4010.
NY session swept the session low near 1.4010 then rallied ~40 pips back to the session high at 1.4051, printing a chain of higher lows. RSI(14) around 65, hot but not extreme; USDCAD is retesting the top of the day's range as oil/Middle East headlines vie with the week's soft-USD lean.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4020, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4053 opens the path back toward the week's rejection zone
Failure to hold 1.4032 reopens the 1.4010 session low
Fed's Schmid (17:25 UTC) could shift the USD read intraday
Recovery from 4-week low, higher lows into session high.
NY session bounced off the ~1.401 four-week low twice, rallying roughly 40 pips to the session high at 1.40533 as a USD/safe-haven bid firmed. Price now sits near 1.405 with RSI(14) around 65, holding above rising support at 1.40320.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.40320 breaks the rising support and reopens the 1.40101 session low
Break and hold above 1.40533 extends the NY rally
Fed speakers (Schmid, Jefferson) today could shift USD tone
16:47 UTC
Recovering off session low, momentum up · RSI 68 · price 1.40471
Higher lows since NY low, reclaiming range.
NY session swept the 4-week low area down to 1.40101 then recovered ~40 pips to retest the session high at 1.40491, RSI(14) near 68. Chain of higher lows from 1.40101 into 1.40320 holds; price sits back above EMA20/50 near the top of the intraday range.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40491, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40491 opens the path to 1.40533
Loss of 1.40320 higher low reopens the 1.40101 session low
Fed's Schmid (17:25 UTC) could shift USD tone into the next bars
16:46 UTC
Recovering off session low · RSI 62 · price 1.40471
V-recovery from 1.4010 back toward session high.
USDCAD dropped to a session low at 1.40101 during the London-NY transition, then staged a steady V-recovery back to the session high near 1.40491, in line with the modest USD bid off multi-week lows. RSI(14) has climbed back to the low-60s; price is holding above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40491, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40491/1.40533 extends the recovery leg
Failure to hold 1.40320 reopens the 1.40100 session low
Fed's Schmid (17:25 UTC) could shift the USD read intraday
NY session bounced USDCAD off the 1.4010 four-week-low zone, grinding back to 1.4044 with a chain of higher lows; RSI(14) near 62, no extreme. Price is retesting the session high at 1.4046, capped so far as US-Iran/oil headlines vie with a soft-USD backdrop.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4046 opens the path to 1.4053 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4032 swing low reopens 1.4010
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid) later today could shift USD tone
16:31 UTC
Recovering from session low · RSI 58 · price 1.4044
Double bottom off 1.4010, higher lows into NY.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4010 — just under this week's four-week low ~1.4039 — during the London-NY session and has climbed back to 1.4044 on a modest USD bounce tied to firmer oil and US-Iran headlines. RSI(14) near 58 with a chain of higher lows; price now testing the 1.4046 mid-range after respecting the rising support off the 1.4010 base.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4053 opens the topside; failure to hold 1.4030 rising support reopens 1.4010
Fed speakers Logan (16:30 UTC) and Schmid (17:25 UTC) could shift USD tone within the next bars
16:17 UTC
Recovering off session low · RSI 60 · price 1.40408
Micro higher-highs after 1.401 base.
NY session sold USDCAD down to a 1.40101 session low around the US data drop, then buyers stepped in and lifted price back to 1.404 in a clean higher-low sequence. RSI(14) near 60 with price back above EMA20/50; the 1.4045 swing high is the immediate cap.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40215, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.40517
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40450 opens the path to 1.40517
Failure to hold 1.40320 reopens the 1.401 session low
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid) this session could shift the USD read
16:17 UTC
Recovering off session low · RSI 57 · price 1.40408
Double bottom near 1.4010, higher lows into NY afternoon.
USDCAD slid to a fresh session/4-week low of 1.40101 around the NY data window, then carved a double bottom and recovered to 1.404 as a modest USD bid met firmer oil. RSI(14) has lifted from oversold to mid-range as the recovery holds higher lows.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40548
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.40101 confirms a lower low and voids the double bottom
Break above 1.40548 session high opens room toward the day's earlier range
Fed's Logan/Schmid speaking this session could shift the USD read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 52 · price 1.40341
Session low base, recovery stalling.
NY session drove USDCAD to a session low near 1.4010 (4-week low zone) before buyers stepped in twice to form a double bottom, lifting price back to 1.4040. Recovery stalled at 1.40401 and price is now easing to 1.4034; RSI(14) mid-range with USD offered after cool US CPI/PPI.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40401
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40401 recovery high needed to extend the bounce
Break below 1.40101 session low opens the path toward 1.3970
Fed speaker Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift the USD tone
NY session swept down to 1.4010 near the four-week low before buyers stepped in, driving the pair back to 1.4040. Price is now easing to 1.4034 with RSI(14) neutral around 52; firmer oil is keeping CAD supported.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40401, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.4020 reopens the 1.4010 session low
Break above 1.4040 session high opens the path to 1.4053
Fed speakers Logan/Schmid this session could shift the read
NY session swept below the week's 1.4039 area to 1.40101, where buyers stepped in twice to form a double bottom, driving a recovery to the 1.40401 session high. Price now consolidates near 1.40374, holding the 61.8% retrace of the prior decline with RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 1.4020, 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40401, 1.40517
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40401 opens the path back toward 1.40517
Failure to hold 1.40200 reopens the 1.40101 session low
Fed speakers (Logan 16:30 UTC, Schmid 17:25) could shift the USD tone
Swept session low, bounce stalling under recent high.
NY session swept the session low near 1.40101 then recovered to 1.40413 before stalling; price now hovering at 1.40374 with RSI mid-range. USD/CAD is consolidating this week's losses around the 1.40 handle as a modest USD bid meets firmer oil.
Support: 1.40216, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40413, 1.40517
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40413 opens the path toward 1.40517
Failure to hold 1.40216 reopens 1.40101 session low
Fed speakers Logan/Schmid could shift the USD tone this session
15:32 UTC
Recovering off session low, momentum turning up · RSI 56 · price 1.40384
Session low swept, higher lows building back to 1.4040 pivot.
NY afternoon swept the session low at 1.40101 then reclaimed the 1.4040 four-week pivot on a run of higher lows, RSI(14) recovering to mid-range. Demand stepped in below 1.40200 and price is now pressing session-high resistance at 1.40413. The broad backdrop stays USD-story-driven after soft US CPI/PPI, with the BoC hold drawing little CAD reaction.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40413, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40413 opens the path back toward 1.40533
Failure to hold 1.40230 reopens the 1.40101 session low
Fed speakers (Logan 16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone within the next few hours
NY afternoon saw USD/CAD sell to a session low at 1.40101 before a sharp V-recovery back to the 1.4040 four-week-low pivot; loonie firm after the hawkish BoC hold while USD stays soft post-CPI. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 56 as the bounce loses a little steam into the session high at 1.40413.
Support: 1.40196, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40413, 1.40476
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40413 opens path back toward 1.40476 prior high
Loss of 1.40196 swing low reopens 1.40101 session low
Fed speakers Logan/Jefferson later today could shift USD tone
NY session drove USDCAD down to a session low of 1.40101, near the flagged four-week pivot, before buyers stepped in and lifted price ~28 pips back to 1.4040 as the soft-USD theme kept a bid under the loonie unresolved. The bounce has stalled into the 1.4044 prior swing, roughly the 61.8% retrace of the intraday down-leg, RSI back near neutral.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 1.40440 opens the path back toward the 1.40530 session high
Loss of 1.40100 confirms a fresh lower low
Fed's Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift the USD tone this session
NY session swept the day's low at 1.40101 then recovered ~27 pips back to 1.40376, holding just inside the four-week low zone flagged around 1.4039-1.4050. Move follows mixed US data leaving the softer-USD tone intact; RSI(14) has lifted back to mid-range off the lows.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4022
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.40517
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40101 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40460 opens the path to the 1.40517 session high
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid, Jefferson) today could shift USD tone
Sharp NY selloff to 1.4010, recovering into mid-range.
NY session pushed USD/CAD down to a session low of 1.40101 on mixed US data and oil-driven flows, then bought back sharply to 1.40328 — roughly a 60% retrace of that leg. The prior four-week low around 1.4039 now sits overhead as resistance; RSI(14) has recovered off the lows to mid-range.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.40476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4039 would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4010 opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
Fed speakers (Logan/Schmid/Jefferson) later could shift the USD tone
NY session drove USDCAD down to a session low of 1.40101 around the US data batch, then buyers stepped in to lift price back to 1.40328 on a chain of higher lows. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-50s and price is back above EMA20 but still capped under the 1.40382 swing pivot; ATR ~8 pips.
Support: 1.40188, 1.40101
Resistance: 1.40382, 1.4046
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.40188 higher low reopens the 1.40101 session low
Break above the 1.40460 range top needed to negate the intraday downtrend
Fed speakers (Logan 16:30 UTC) could shift the USD tone this session
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40237
Lower highs into a session low, minor recovery.
NY session drove USD/CAD down to a 1.40100 session low, undercutting the four-week low zone before buyers stepped in twice around 1.4011-1.4014 to lift price back to 1.4024. RSI(14) recovering off the lows near 44; broad USD softness after the CPI/PPI misses remains the backdrop but oil-driven CAD support has kept the pair heavy.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40196
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4045
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40320 opens the path back toward 1.40450
Loss of 1.40100 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Fed's Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift the USD tone into the next bars
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40237
Broke intraday range, lower low then recovery.
USDCAD broke below the 1.4040 range base during NY hours and swept down to a session low of 1.40101 as broad USD weakness pressed multi-week lows. Price has since recovered to 1.4024, RSI(14) lifting off the low near 43; the former range base at 1.4040 now caps.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4040, 1.40476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4040 range base would neutralise the range-break read
Loss of 1.40101 session low reopens the 1.4000 psych level
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid) later today could shift USD tone
NY session broke below the 1.4040 range floor that capped most of the window, extending to a session low of 1.40101 as the soft-USD theme (cool CPI/PPI) pressed the pair. RSI(14) is cooling near 43 and price has since bounced to 1.40217; the broken 1.4040 shelf now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.4040
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.40400 invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.40101 confirms continuation lower toward 1.4000
Fed speaker Logan ~16:30 UTC could shift USD tone
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40217
Session low swept, minor recovery.
NY session drove USDCAD down through 1.4030 to a session low of 1.40101 as the soft-USD tone persisted; buyers stepped in twice near 1.4011 and price recovered to 1.40217. Still below EMA20/50 with the intraday down leg intact, RSI(14) cooling near 44.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.4039
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40275 would negate the fresh lower-low read
Break below 1.40101 opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
Fed speaker Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift the USD tone this session
Lower highs into fresh session low, corrective bounce.
USDCAD leaked lower through NY hours on a soft USD, breaking under the 1.4040 four-week low zone to a session low of 1.40101 before bouncing to 1.40265. RSI(14) near 41 as the down leg pauses; the chain of lower highs off 1.40533 remains intact.
Support: 1.40101, 1.40184
Resistance: 1.40324, 1.4046, 1.40533
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40324 swing pivot would ease the lower-high pressure
Loss of 1.40101 session low confirms downtrend continuation
Fed speaker Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs into a swept session low, early recovery.
NY session sold USDCAD down to a session low of 1.40101, extending the soft-USD drift after this week's cool US inflation prints. Price has since recovered to 1.40265 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold back to ~45; the intraday pivot at 1.40320 is the first hurdle for the bounce.
Support: 1.40101, 1.40184
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.40405
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40405 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.40101 session low confirms downtrend continuation
Fed speakers (Logan 16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone this session
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 41 · price 1.40237
Lower highs and lower lows, testing session low.
NY session drove USD/CAD to a session low of 1.40101 as the dollar stayed soft after in-line US retail sales and firmer claims failed to lift the buck. Price bounced to 1.40237 off that low, RSI(14) recovering from the mid-30s; the lower-high chain from 1.40533 remains intact.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40308, 1.40374
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40374 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.40101 opens the 1.40000 round level
UoM inflation expectations Friday 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh session low then recovery.
USDCAD broke the intraday range lower during NY hours, printing a fresh session low at 1.40101 as the soft USD tone weighed, before buyers stepped in for a bounce to 1.40237. RSI(14) recovering off oversold territory near 40; price still capped below the 1.4032 prior swing.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40320 prior swing would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 1.40101 session low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Fed speakers (Logan 16:30, Schmid 17:25 UTC) could shift USD tone intraday
NY session drove USDCAD through the mid-1.4030s consolidation to a session low at 1.4010, with the last bar bouncing to 1.40166 and RSI(14) cooling near 33. Selling picked up on the soft-USD backdrop after in-line Retail Sales and firm claims failed to lift the dollar.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4037, 1.40476
What it said to watch
Break of 1.4000 extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above 1.40370 neutralises the down leg
Fed speaker Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift near-term USD tone
USDCAD broke down out of the 1.4040–1.4050 NY consolidation, printing a session low at 1.40101 as the soft-USD theme dominated, RSI(14) near 31. A minor bounce off the low into 1.40166 is holding, but price sits well below EMA20/50 with the 1.4000 handle now in focus.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40309, 1.40476
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.40309 would neutralise the breakdown read
Loss of 1.40101 opens the 1.4000 psych level
US Retail Sales / Fed speakers (Logan 16:30 UTC) could shift USD tone
Late NY session broke down out of the 1.4045-1.4066 range, printing fresh lows at 1.4011 with RSI(14) sliding toward oversold near 27. Move fits the broader USD-soft backdrop after in-line US retail sales failed to lift the buck; sellers pressed through the prior consolidation floor at 1.4045.
Support: 1.4011, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4066
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.4045 negates the breakdown and returns price to the consolidation range
Failure to hold 1.4011 opens the 1.4000 psych level
US Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid) could shift near-term USD tone
USDCAD sold off through the NY session to fresh session lows near 1.4011, extending a lower-high chain as soft-USD flows dominate after in-line US Retail Sales. RSI(14) at 28 flags a short-term oversold condition, with 1.4028 the last minor pivot capping the bounce.
Support: 1.4011, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4028, 1.4046
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.4028 recent high would ease the downside pressure
Fed speakers (Logan, Schmid) and UoM inflation Friday could shift the USD read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, making fresh lows · RSI 33 · price 1.40206
Lower highs into session low break.
NY session sliced through the prior session low to a fresh 1.40184 print as the soft dollar (PPI miss) keeps pressure on. RSI(14) at 33, not yet extreme, with price pinned at the lows after a clean run of lower highs from the 1.40533 area.
Support: 1.40184, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40374, 1.40476, 1.40533
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.40374 stalls the lower-low sequence
Sustained break below 1.40184 opens the 1.4000 handle
Fed speakers today could shift USD tone into the next bars
USDCAD leaked lower through the NY session, breaking the 1.4030 shelf and printing a fresh session low at 1.4018 as broad USD softness persists after cool PPI. RSI(14) around 33, price pinned below EMA20/50 with no bounce yet.
Support: 1.40184, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40308, 1.40476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40308 would neutralise the intraday lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.40184 opens the 1.4000 round number
Fed speaker tone could shift the USD read into next bars
NY session pushed USDCAD through the 1.4039 four-week low support, printing a new session low at 1.4020 as the soft-USD story (cool PPI, dovish repricing) weighed. Price is now attempting to stabilise near 1.4028 with RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s; the prior support at 1.4039 flips to resistance overhead.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.40466
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4039 four-week low would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4020 session low opens the 1.4000 round number
USD/CAD broke the 1.4039 four-week support during NY hours and printed a fresh session low at 1.40196, pressured by a soft USD after the PPI miss. RSI(14) near 42 with a small bounce into the close; 1.40390 now acts as overhead resistance.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.40476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40390 would neutralise the downside break
Loss of 1.40196 opens the path toward 1.40000 psych
Friday UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift the USD read
USDCAD ground lower through the London-NY overlap, breaking the 1.4039 four-week low to a fresh session low at 1.4020 as broad USD softness after the cool PPI print weighed. RSI(14) near 31 and price below both EMAs; the 1.4000 psych level is the next reference down.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4046
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4039 four-week low invalidates the downside break
Failure to hold 1.4020 opens the path to the 1.4000 psych level
UoM inflation expectations Friday 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 32 · price 1.40228
Lower highs, lower lows into NY.
USDCAD broke the 1.4039 four-week low during NY hours and printed a session low at 1.4020, RSI(14) near 31 as the soft-USD tone persists. Price trades below EMA20/50 with a clean chain of lower highs; 1.4039 now flips to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.4020, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4046, 1.4051
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4039 negates the downside break and reopens 1.4046/1.4051
Failure to hold 1.4020 exposes the 1.40 psychological handle
Fed speakers (Logan 16:30 UTC) could jolt USD and shift this read
NY session drove USDCAD through the 1.4039 four-week low support, extending to a fresh session low at 1.40196 with RSI(14) near 33. Sellers stepped in repeatedly under descending resistance off 1.40516; the prior range floor now caps rebounds.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.40516
What it said to watch
A reclaim above 1.40390 four-week low invalidates the breakdown read
US Retail Sales / Fed Logan (16:30 UTC) could shift this read into the next bars
Failure to hold 1.40196 session low opens the path toward 1.4000
NY session broke below the 1.4039 four-week-low support that had floored the day's range, printing fresh lows near 1.4020 as the USD stayed soft post-PPI. Price trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) cooling into the low 30s; the prior low at 1.4039 now caps as resistance, swing high sits at 1.4051.
Support: 1.40196, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4051
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales just released at 12:30 UTC — the immediate catalyst; a beat could snap USDCAD back toward 1.4039
Sustained trade below 1.4020 exposes the 1.4000 psych level
Reclaim of 1.40390 prior low negates the breakdown
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 31 · price 1.40271
Lower highs, broke below range floor.
USDCAD broke below the 1.4040 range floor it held through the London session and printed a fresh session low at 1.4023, pressing the 1.4039–1.4050 four-week low zone. RSI(14) near 31 shows momentum stretched to the downside; price is capped under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4040, 1.4053
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~14min) is the immediate catalyst and can materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.4040 would negate the downside break and put price back in the prior range
USDCAD sold off through the NY morning, breaking the 1.4039 four-week support and printing a session low at 1.4023 with RSI(14) near 37. Price is stalling just above 1.4023 after a clean range break lower; the 1.4046 swing pivot now caps.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4046
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is an imminent catalyst that could materially shift this read
Sustained break below 1.4023 opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
Reclaim of 1.4046 swing pivot negates the fresh lower-low
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session, fading from the 1.4053 session high and now retesting the 1.4030 session low as price sits below EMA20/50. Move is capped under a chain of lower highs; RSI(14) near 41, no oversold stress yet.
Support: 1.4030, 1.40265, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~28m) is the immediate driver — soft print pressures 1.4030/1.40265, firm print risks a snap toward 1.40476
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40476 negates the lower-high sequence
NY session grinding lower off the 1.404 range, price sliding toward session lows near 1.40300 with RSI(14) cooling into the high-30s. Move sits just ahead of US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) — the session hasn't committed below 1.40265.
Support: 1.40299, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40374, 1.4046
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC can materially shift this read
Close below 1.40265 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
USDCAD faded the London push to 1.40517 and is grinding to fresh session lows near 1.4031, slipping below the 1.4039 four-week-low pivot with RSI(14) around 40. Move sits with a soft USD backdrop after this week's weak US inflation prints; US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the immediate catalyst.
Support: 1.40306, 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4046, 1.40517
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~45m) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.4039 negates the break lower
USDCAD leaked out of the 1.4045-1.4050 shelf that held through the London-NY session and is now pressing fresh session lows near 1.4031, RSI(14) around 37 and price under both EMAs. The 1.4024 intraday swing low is the next reference below.
Support: 1.40306, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4051, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~45m) is the near-term driver for this pair
Loss of 1.40244 confirms a lower low and extends the drift
Reclaim of the 1.4045 floor negates the downside break
USDCAD held between 1.4030 and 1.4053 through the London-NY transition, sitting just off the 1.40244 range low after last week's slide on soft US inflation. Price is drifting back toward the base with RSI(14) in the low 40s, a string of lower highs capping under 1.4053.
Support: 1.40306, 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40476
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~60m) is the near-term driver and could break the range
M15 close below 1.40306 opens the 1.40244 range low
Reclaim of 1.40533 negates the lower-high sequence
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding back to session lows · RSI 43 · price 1.40356
Range fading, lower highs into base.
Early London leg dumped from 1.4077 to 1.4024, then price ranged 1.4035–1.4053 through the session before drifting back to the 1.4030 base ahead of US Retail Sales. RSI(14) mid-40s, price under EMA20/50 with lower highs capping around 1.4046.
Support: 1.40306, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~1h) can drive the next leg
Sustained break below 1.40306 reopens 1.40244 day low
Reclaim of 1.40460 negates the fade back toward 1.40533
USDCAD slipped just under the 1.4039 four-week low into the London-NY transition, printing 1.40345 with RSI(14) soft near 41. Sellers capped the 1.4050 swing high while the 1.4024 session low held earlier; price now presses that base again.
Support: 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could reset this read within the hour
Sustained M15 close back above 1.4039 negates the break lower
Break of 1.4024 session low confirms continuation lower
USDCAD fell from 1.4077 to the 1.40265 session low early, then chopped in a 1.4035-1.4046 range through the NY session with rejections at the range top. Price is sliding back toward the session low into the last hour; USD stays soft after the PPI miss but USDCAD holds just above its four-week floor.
Support: 1.40312, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4046
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.40460 range top negates the fade toward session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Drifting lower within range · RSI 39 · price 1.40374
Lower highs into session low, range-bound.
USDCAD is grinding back toward the session low near 1.40346 after fading from 1.40533, a chain of lower highs building through the London-NY transition with RSI(14) cooling near 39. Price hugs the 1.4039 four-week pivot cited in the CAD read, capped below EMA20/50 ahead of US Retail Sales.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40517
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40517 invalidates the lower-high sequence
11:02 UTC
Range, drifting lower late · RSI 39 · price 1.40374
Consolidation with lower highs into NY approach.
USDCAD held a 1.4026-1.4053 range through London before drifting to the session low near 1.40346, price back below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) around 39. Pair sits just under the 1.4039 four-week low after snapping its losing streak; soft US inflation keeps USD pinned while firm oil supports CAD.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40466, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.40466 negates the late-session drift lower
USDCAD is grinding lower into the 1.4037 area, holding just above the 1.4039 four-week low after a shallow bounce off the 1.40265 session low. Price has faded from 1.40533, printing lower highs; RSI(14) mid-30s, no extreme. Move sits within a tight range with US Retail Sales the next catalyst.
Support: 1.40265, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
Break and hold below 1.40265 confirms a fresh lower-low
M15 close above 1.40533 negates the lower-high sequence
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Mild downtrend within range · RSI 41 · price 1.40366
Lower highs off 1.4053, holding above range low.
USDCAD drifting lower through London hours, printing lower highs off the 1.4053 swing while holding above the four-week low zone near 1.4024. USD stays soft after the PPI miss but the slide is measured, with price ranging 1.4024–1.4053 into the US session.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could shift this read sharply
Break below 1.40244 opens the four-week low zone
Close back above 1.40533 negates the lower-high sequence
USDCAD is grinding lower into the NY session, carving lower highs off the 1.4053 swing top and now hovering just above the 1.4029 session low. RSI(14) sub-45 shows no real momentum, price sits below both EMAs. US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the near-term catalyst for this range.
Support: 1.4029, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4029 opens continuation toward the four-week low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range either way
Reclaim of 1.4053 negates the lower-high sequence
10:31 UTC
Range, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 1.40372
Consolidation near session low.
USDCAD is grinding within a tight 1.4040-1.4053 range after rebounding off the 1.4026 low, now slipping back toward the session low at 1.40346 with price below EMA20. RSI(14) around 41 reflects the mild downward drift; no setup in play ahead of US Retail Sales.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range in either direction
Break below 1.40346 session low opens the 1.40265 swing low
Reclaim of 1.40533 range top negates the lower drift
10:16 UTC
Mild downtrend within range · RSI 41 · price 1.40384
Ranging after morning drop, coiling near 4wk low.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4077 session high to 1.4024 in early trade, then chopped in a tight 1.4039–1.4053 range through the London session. Price is grinding back toward the 1.4039 four-week low with lower highs, RSI(14) around 41 and ATR compressed to ~4 pips ahead of US Retail Sales.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4039 opens the sub-1.40 zone
Reclaim of 1.4053 swing high negates the lower-highs sequence
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
USDCAD faded off the 1.4053 swing high through the London session, printing lower highs and pressing back to the session low at 1.4038 with RSI(14) around 41. Move sits just above the 1.40265 four-week low as USD holds near multi-week lows post-PPI; price is retesting the base of the intraday range.
Support: 1.40379, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.40476 negates the lower-high sequence
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Range-bound near four-week lows · RSI 43 · price 1.40402
Consolidation, drifting toward range base.
USDCAD is coiling in a tight 1.4024–1.4053 range near four-week lows, with an early London flush to 1.4024 recovering into the recent high at 1.4053 before fading back to 1.4040. BoC's hawkish hold and firm oil keep the Loonie underpinned; late-session bars are compressing (ATR ~5 pips) with RSI neutral around 43.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break this range
Loss of 1.4024 session low opens the 1.40 psych handle
M15 close above 1.4053 recent high resets the range top
USDCAD is grinding in a tight 1.4040-1.4053 range just above the 1.4039 four-week low after a hawkish BoC hold and soft US PPI kept the pair heavy. Sellers capped every push into 1.4053 through NY hours; RSI sits mid-40s with no momentum extreme.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4039 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.40 psych
Break and hold above 1.4053 session high negates the range-low pressure
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
09:46 UTC
Sideways, no momentum · RSI 48 · price 1.40435
Range after recovery off session low.
USDCAD is boxed between 1.4041 and 1.4053 through the London session, holding just above the four-week-low zone after recovering from the 1.4024 window low. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 47 and ATR is a thin ~5 pips, price pinned around EMA20/50 with no directional push. Elevated oil and yesterday's hawkish BoC hold keep the Loonie firm.
Support: 1.40407, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40517, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the range high test
Loss of 1.40407 session low exposes the 1.40244 range low
09:46 UTC
Range after morning slide · RSI 45 · price 1.40435
Consolidation in lower half of window range.
USDCAD slid through London hours from 1.4077 to 1.40265 then based, and is now grinding sideways in the 1.4040-1.4053 band just above the four-week low. Loonie stays firm on elevated oil and yesterday's hawkish BoC hold; RSI(14) mid-range around 45, no momentum edge intraday.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC (~3h out) can force this range read
Close below 1.4040 confirms a lower-low toward 1.40265
Close above 1.40533 reopens 1.4077
09:31 UTC
Sideways, no momentum · RSI 48 · price 1.40451
Consolidation near 4-week low.
USDCAD is coiling in a tight ~12-pip band around 1.4045 after selling from 1.4077 to 1.4027 and recovering, with the pair pinned near the 1.4040 four-week low following the hawkish BoC hold. RSI(14) neutral near 48, ATR compressed to ~4 pips — no directional impulse in play.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.4068
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
M15 close below 1.4040 opens path toward the four-week low
Close above 1.40520 breaks the upper edge of the range
USDCAD is grinding sideways around 1.4045 after the BoC hawkish hold and soft US PPI pinned it near the 1.4040 four-week low. NY session has stayed inside a tight 1.4040–1.4053 band with RSI(14) hovering near 50 — no directional setup in play.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
Break below 1.4040 four-week low opens the path toward the session low at 1.40244
M15 close above 1.40533 range top would end the consolidation read
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD sold off from 1.4077 into a 1.40244 swing low through the Asian session, then recovered to grind sideways in a 1.40400–1.40517 range, price now pinned near the range low at 1.40434. RSI(14) neutral around 46, EMAs flat just above price; no directional setup while the range holds.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40517, 1.4062
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40400 range low opens the 1.40265 swing low
Close above 1.40517 swing high reopens the upper range toward 1.40620
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC (~3h out) could break this consolidation
09:16 UTC
Range after intraday decline · RSI 45 · price 1.40434
Consolidating above session low.
USDCAD slid from 1.4077 to a 1.4027 low earlier in the window, then recovered into a tight 1.4040–1.4053 range through the London session. Price now hugs the lower half of that range near 1.4043 with RSI(14) flat around 45, no directional impulse in play.
Support: 1.40407, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40533
What it said to watch
Break below 1.40407 reopens the 1.40265 range low
M15 close above 1.40533 negates the range read
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h out) could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sideways, consolidating after recovery · RSI 44 · price 1.40415
Range-bound around 1.404 after bouncing off 1.40244.
USDCAD is ranging near 1.404 after recovering from the 1.40244 swing low and stalling at the 1.40533 swing high; RSI(14) sits mid-40s, price under EMA20/50. Loonie stays firm near four-week highs on hawkish BoC and oil bid, but price is consolidating rather than extending.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40476
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40400 psych opens the path back toward the 1.40244 swing low
Reclaim of 1.40533 swing high needed to resume upside
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sideways after morning drop · RSI 46 · price 1.40415
Consolidating within intraday range.
USDCAD rejected the 1.40770 day high early, sold off to a 1.40265 low, then chopped back into a tight 1.40400-1.40520 range where it now sits. Loonie holding firm on the hawkish BoC hold and elevated oil; price is consolidating rather than extending either way.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.4077
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40400 opens the path back to the 1.40265 day low
M15 close above 1.40520 reopens the 1.40770 day high
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could break this range
USDCAD carved a four-week low near 1.4026 mid-window, then ground back into a tight range around 1.4046 with USD offered on soft PPI while firm oil underpins CAD. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is compressed as the London morning consolidates below the 1.4051 range top.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4051 range top opens the sell-off retrace toward the 1.4068 prior high
Loss of 1.4040 range floor re-exposes the 1.4026 session low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
08:46 UTC
Sideways after early drop, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.40465
Ranging 1.4040-1.4051, above session low.
USDCAD sold from 1.4077 into a 1.4024 session low, then recovered and is now ranging 1.4040-1.4051 through London hours with RSI(14) flat near 49. CAD firm on high oil and the hawkish-hold BoC keeps the pair pinned in the mid-1.4000s.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path to 1.40769
Loss of 1.4040 reopens the 1.40244 session low
08:32 UTC
Range after pullback, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.40455
Consolidating above intraday low.
USDCAD is consolidating in the mid-1.4040s after bouncing off the 1.4026 intraday swing low, still offered below the earlier 1.4076 session high. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR is compressed around 4 pips — no setup in play into US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 1.40407, 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward the 1.4076 session high
Break below 1.40407 and the 1.4039 four-week low confirms a fresh lower low
08:32 UTC
Range after intraday selloff, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.40455
Consolidation between 1.4040 and 1.4053.
USDCAD is consolidating between 1.4040 and 1.4053 through the Asian session, holding just below mid-1.4000s near four-week lows as the USD stays soft post-PPI. The recovery from the 1.40244 session low stalled at the 1.40533 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4064
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40400 range low reopens the 1.40244 session low
Break above 1.40533 swing high exposes the 1.40640 prior high
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidation above 1.4040 after recovery off session low.
USDCAD is consolidating around 1.4045 after recovering from the session low at 1.4026, with rallies capped near 1.4053. RSI(14) sits neutral near 47; no intraday setup in play as price grinds sideways into the London-NY transition. The pair holds sub-1.4050 in line with firm oil and the soft US PPI print keeping the dollar offered.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.4040 reopens the 1.4026 session low
Close above 1.4053 clears the swing high and extends the recovery
08:16 UTC
Range, no clear direction · RSI 50 · price 1.40455
Consolidation after recovery off 1.40265 low.
USDCAD is ranging 1.40407–1.40533 through the London morning after recovering from the 1.40265 swing low overnight, RSI(14) flat near 50. Price is pinned around the EMA20 with CAD firm sub-1.4050 on high oil; no setup in play.
Support: 1.40407, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40575
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path toward the 1.40575 prior high
Failure to hold 1.40407 session low exposes 1.40265
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend paused, now ranging · RSI 49 · price 1.40456
Consolidation above session lows.
USDCAD sold from the 1.4077 session high down to 1.40265 through the Asian session, then stabilised and is now consolidating in a tight 1.4040–1.4053 band through the London morning, price hugging EMA20. Oil-driven CAD firmness keeps a lid near 1.4053 while soft US PPI keeps the dollar heavy; RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4077
What it said to watch
Break above 1.4053 range top reopens 1.4077
Loss of 1.4040 range floor exposes 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC can break this range
08:02 UTC
Downtrend paused, now ranging · RSI 47 · price 1.40456
Consolidation after selloff and base.
USDCAD sold off from 1.40769 into the London window then based near 1.40265, and is now ranging 1.40400–1.40533 with RSI(14) neutral near 47. Price is pinned to the EMA20 as soft US PPI keeps the USD offered while firm oil underpins CAD ahead of US Retail Sales.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4035, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40400 reopens the 1.40265 swing low
Close above 1.40533 opens the path to 1.40620
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range
07:46 UTC
Ranging, no clear trend · RSI 49 · price 1.40448
Consolidation mid-range after drop.
USDCAD is chopping in a tight 1.4040–1.4052 band through the Asia session after Wednesday's NY slide from 1.40769 into the 1.40265 four-week low. Price holds the 38.2% retrace of that drop near 1.4046 with RSI(14) flat mid-range; oil-driven CAD firmness is capping the upside.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4052 opens the path back toward 1.40769
Break below 1.40265 confirms a lower low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:46 UTC
Recovered off session low, now ranging · RSI 47 · price 1.40448
Sold off then based; higher lows into a tight range.
USDCAD sold off from 1.40769 during the London morning to a session low near 1.40265, then based twice around 1.404 and clawed back to mid-1.404s as soft US PPI keeps the dollar heavy. Now ranging 1.4040–1.4053 with RSI(14) flat near 47; no clean directional setup in play.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.404 reopens the 1.40265 session low
Reclaim of 1.40533 would confirm continuation of the recovery
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Ranging 1.4040-1.4053 after recovery off session low.
USDCAD sold off from the session high near 1.4077 to 1.40265, then recovered and has been ranging 1.4040-1.4053 through the Asian and early London hours. CAD stayed firm on high oil and the hawkish BoC hold while soft US PPI kept the dollar heavy; price is now drifting toward the range floor with RSI mid-range.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40575, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40400 reopens the 1.40265 swing low
Reclaim of 1.40533 range top puts 1.40575 back in focus
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range decisively
07:31 UTC
Sideways, no momentum · RSI 46 · price 1.40443
Range-bound after recovery off session low.
USDCAD is chopping in a tight 1.4040-1.4052 band into the London morning after recovering from the 1.4024 session low; soft US PPI kept the dollar heavy while firm oil underpins CAD. RSI(14) mid-range near 46, price hugging EMA20 — no directional setup in play.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40517, 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 reopens the upside toward the 1.4077 session high
Loss of 1.40400 exposes the 1.40244 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range in either direction
USDCAD is grinding sideways in a tight 1.4040–1.4053 band through the Asia into London morning, ATR compressed to ~4 pips. The pair recovered off the 1.40265 session low made during NY hours but is now easing back toward the 1.40407 swing low, with soft US PPI keeping the dollar offered and firm oil underpinning CAD.
Support: 1.40407, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4050
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this compression
Loss of 1.40407 reopens the 1.40265 session low
Reclaim of 1.40500 shifts focus back to 1.40533 swing high
07:16 UTC
Range, drifting off session high · RSI 46 · price 1.40436
Consolidation between 1.4035 and 1.4053.
USDCAD is ranging in the low-1.4040s after recovering from the 1.40265 session low; soft US PPI kept the dollar offered while firm oil underpins CAD. Price faded from the 1.40533 session high and now sits mid-range, RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.40407, 1.4035, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.40350 exposes the 1.40265 session low
Reclaim of 1.40533 needed to resume the recovery
07:02 UTC
Sideways, mild downdrift · RSI 41 · price 1.40414
Range after earlier selloff.
USDCAD faded from the 1.40769 high early in the window down to 1.40265, then chopped in a tight 1.4040–1.4052 range through London hours. Last bar slipped to a session low near 1.40407 with RSI(14) mid-40s; pair sits sub-1.4050 into the US Retail Sales print.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40517, 1.40533
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range
Close below 1.40346 session low confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40517 range top reopens the upper end
07:02 UTC
Mild downtrend, ranging · RSI 42 · price 1.40414
Range after NY selloff, holding near lows.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.40769 NY high to a 1.40244 day low, then chopped sideways through the Asian session and into London around 1.4040-1.4050. Price is drifting back toward the 1.40407 range floor with RSI(14) mid-40s and ATR compressed to ~4 pips; USD stays soft on the CPI/PPI misses while CAD holds firm near one-month highs.
Support: 1.40407, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40407 reopens the 1.40244 day low
Reclaim of 1.40533 session high needed to shift the range read
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range
USDCAD is range-bound between 1.4037 and 1.4053 through the Asian session after recovering from the 1.4026 session low. RSI(14) sits neutral near 54 and ATR has compressed to ~4 pips, reflecting a quiet, coiled tape. US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.4037, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4066
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4053 opens the path back toward the 1.4066 prior high
Loss of 1.4037 range base exposes the 1.4026 session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC can break the range in either direction
06:46 UTC
Sideways, low volatility · RSI 49 · price 1.40465
Tight range after mid-window selloff and partial recovery.
USDCAD is coiling in a tight 1.4044–1.4053 band through Asia into the London open, ATR compressed to ~7 pips after the mid-window drop to 1.40244 and recovery. USD stays soft after the PPI miss while CAD holds firm near one-month lows, keeping price pinned sub-1.4100 with no intraday setup in play.
Support: 1.4044, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4068
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.40530 breaks the range top
Loss of 1.40440 reopens the 1.40244 session low
06:31 UTC
Sideways, no momentum · RSI 49 · price 1.40459
Tight range in upper half of session move.
USDCAD is coiling in a tight 1.4044–1.4052 band through the Asia into early London hours, sitting near the 27% retrace of the bounce off the 1.40265 session low. Price holds sub-1.4100 with USD soft after the PPI double-miss, but momentum is flat — RSI near 49 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4068
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC in ~6h could break this range in either direction
Close above 1.40533 reopens the 1.40680 prior high
Loss of 1.40400 exposes the 1.40265 session low
06:31 UTC
Recovered off lows, now ranging · RSI 48 · price 1.40459
Consolidation after 1.4024 low.
USDCAD bounced off the 1.40244 swing low and has since gone flat, ranging 1.4040–1.4053 through the Asian session into London with RSI neutral near 48. Price is pinned around the EMA20; no setup in play. USD stayed soft after yesterday's PPI miss, but US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the near-term driver.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40611
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40533 opens the path toward 1.40611
Break below 1.4040 exposes the 1.40244 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidating after NY selloff, holding above 1.4039.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4077 high through NY to a 1.4025 swing low, then ground back to 1.4047 with USD soft after the PPI miss but the Loonie's oil/BoC bid keeping the pair pinned near one-month lows. Asian hours have been tight and flat, RSI neutral around 55, consolidating just under the 1.4051 session high.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.4077
What it said to watch
Break above 1.4051 opens the path back toward 1.4077
Loss of 1.4039 reopens the 1.4025 low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
06:16 UTC
Consolidating after intraday recovery · RSI 53 · price 1.40477
Range with higher lows off session low.
USDCAD is consolidating in a tight 1.40447–1.40533 band into the London session after recovering off the 1.40244 session low; soft US PPI kept the dollar heavy while a hawkish-hold BoC caps the downside. RSI(14) near 53 with price holding above EMA20/50 — no directional setup in play.
Support: 1.40447, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40607
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 swing high opens the path toward 1.40607 prior high
Loss of 1.40447 recent low re-exposes the 1.40244 session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Quiet Asia session ground sideways after recovering off the 1.40265 low, USD/CAD now consolidating 1.40447–1.40533 into the London open. USD stays soft on the PPI miss while CAD holds firm post-BoC hold, but ATR near 4.5 pips shows the pair is idling with no impulse.
Support: 1.40447, 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40685
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 extends the recovery toward 1.40685
Loss of 1.40447 reopens the 1.40376 asia low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
USDCAD is basing near one-month lows, grinding up from the 1.40265 overnight low into the London session with RSI(14) mid-range around 57. Soft US PPI and the hawkish BoC hold keep the dollar heavy, but price is capped under the 1.40530 session high. US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the key risk into the next hours.
Support: 1.4044, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4066
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40530 opens the path to the 1.40660 prior high
Failure to hold 1.40440 reopens the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Range, near one-month lows · RSI 51 · price 1.40501
Consolidating after recovery off session low.
USDCAD is coiling in a tight 1.4045–1.4053 Asian-session range after recovering off the 1.40265 session low; USD stays soft post-PPI miss while a hawkish BoC hold keeps CAD firm near a one-month low. RSI(14) is flat around 51, ATR compressed to ~4 pips — no intraday momentum in play.
Support: 1.40445, 1.40265, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could shift this read materially
M15 close above 1.40533 opens a retest of the 1.40769 session high
Higher lows, tight consolidation near session highs.
USDCAD ground higher through the Asia session off the 1.40265 low, now coiling in a tight 1.40447–1.40533 band into early London. USD stays soft after yesterday's PPI miss while the priced BoC hold keeps CAD firm; price sits above EMA20/50 but candle bodies have shrunk near the swing high.
Support: 1.40447, 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path toward 1.40620
Failure to hold 1.40447 reopens 1.40376 then the 1.40265 low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Range after recovery, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 1.40473
Tight Asian-session range, higher low off 1.40265.
USDCAD bounced off the 1.40265 swing low into the London-NY drift and has since coiled in a tight Asian-session range between the 1.40438 session low and 1.40533 range top, with volume thin and RSI near 50. No directional structure in play; price is pinned just above short EMAs into the US Retail Sales print.
Support: 1.40438, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
Close above 1.40533 range top opens the path back toward 1.40769 prior high
Close below 1.40438 session low re-exposes the 1.40265 swing low
USDCAD recovered off the 1.40265 swing low back toward 1.4053 then stalled, now drifting in a tight 1.4044-1.4053 band during Asia hours with RSI(14) flat near 47. Price holds just above EMA20/50; no directional setup in play near the sub-1.4100 pivot after the hawkish-hold BoC.
Support: 1.40438, 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40571, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward the 1.40769 session high
Loss of 1.40438 exposes the 1.40346 session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range
05:17 UTC
Recovery stalled, now flat · RSI 52 · price 1.40453
Consolidation near session mid after bounce off session low.
Asia session quiet after USDCAD recovered off the 1.4026 session low to a 1.4053 session high, then stalled — the bounce retraced roughly half of the earlier drop from 1.4077. Now ranging 1.4044–1.4053 on thin volume with RSI(14) neutral near 52; hawkish BoC hold and soft US PPI keep the pair pinned sub-1.4100.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4066
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4053 session high opens 1.4066 prior high
Loss of 1.4044 range floor exposes 1.4039 monthly low then 1.4026 session low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break the range
05:16 UTC
Recovered off lows, now flat · RSI 48 · price 1.40453
Consolidation after bounce from 1.40265.
USDCAD bounced from the 1.40265 swing low back to a 1.40533 session high, then stalled into thin Asian-session trade, now coiling around 1.4045 with RSI(14) neutral near 48. BoC's hawkish hold and softer US PPI keep the pair pinned sub-1.4100; range between 1.40376 and 1.40533 is holding with no clear intraday direction.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation either way
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path back to the 1.40620 prior high
Loss of 1.40376 range floor exposes the 1.40265 swing low
05:03 UTC
Sideways, no momentum · RSI 51 · price 1.40465
Range after intraday selloff.
USDCAD sold off from 1.40769 to 1.40265 through the prior NY session — softer US PPI and a hawkish BoC hold weighed — and has since gone quiet, ranging 1.40376–1.40533 in thin Asia trade. Buyers stepped in twice near 1.4027 forming a double bottom; RSI(14) flat near 51, no setup in play.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward 1.40769
Loss of 1.40376 exposes the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
05:03 UTC
Sideways after recovery · RSI 50 · price 1.40465
Range-bound, coiling near mid.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4076 session high to a 1.40265 swing low, then recovered and has coiled between 1.4044 and 1.4053 through the quiet Asia session. Softer US PPI keeps the dollar heavy near the four-week low; RSI(14) flat around 50 with no momentum edge.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4053 reopens the path toward 1.4076
Break below 1.4039 monthly low exposes the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
Recovered off session low, now capped by lower highs.
USDCAD recovered off the 1.40265 session low back to 1.40533 then rolled over, drifting to 1.40446 in quiet Asian hours with volume thinning out. Range-bound between 1.40265 and 1.40533, RSI(14) neutral near 45, no setup in play.
Support: 1.40265, 1.40312
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
Break below 1.40265 extends the intraday down-leg
Reclaim of 1.40533 needed to resume the recovery
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD is grinding sideways between 1.4040 and 1.4053 through the Asia session after recovering off the 1.40265 swing low; RSI(14) sits mid-range near 47 with no directional lean. Price is pinned just above the 1.4039 four-week low following the hawkish-hold BoC, with US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC the next catalyst.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4039 monthly low opens the path to 1.40265
Reclaim of 1.40533 swing high needed to break the range top
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Range, no clear direction · RSI 47 · price 1.40475
Consolidating after recovery off asian low.
USDCAD is ranging between 1.40395 and 1.40533 into the European open, coiling after a recovery off the 1.40265 asian low. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46 with price hugging EMA20; no setup in play, broader tone still sub-1.4100 with CAD firm.
Support: 1.40395, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4058
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40533 session high extends the recovery toward 1.40580
Close below 1.40395 swing low reopens the 1.40265 asian low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
04:31 UTC
Recovered off lows, now flat · RSI 46 · price 1.40475
Consolidation after bounce.
USDCAD sold off from 1.4077 to a session low at 1.40265 then clawed back to 1.4053 before stalling; Asia session now quiet with price idling around 1.4047 and RSI(14) neutral near 46. The BoC hawkish-hold and soft US PPI leave the pair pinned sub-1.4100 with no intraday setup in play.
Support: 1.4034, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40340 reopens the 1.40265 session low
Close above 1.40533 resumes the recovery leg
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst
04:17 UTC
Down then partial recovery, now flat · RSI 46 · price 1.40453
Consolidating mid-range after selloff.
NY sold USDCAD from 1.40769 down to a 1.40265 swing low, then Asia clawed back roughly half the move to 1.40533. Price is now stalling around 1.40450 in thin, low-volume Asian trade with RSI neutral, holding just sub-1.41 near four-week lows after the hawkish-hold BoC.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward 1.40680
Loss of 1.40390 puts the 1.40265 swing low back in play
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Quiet Asia session drifting lower after a recovery off the 1.40265 day low, now boxed between 1.40376 and the 1.40533 swing high. ATR is compressed near 4 pips and volume is thin — no setup in play ahead of US Retail Sales.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40769
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst and could break this range
Break below 1.40376 exposes the 1.40265 day low
M15 close above 1.40533 reopens the path toward 1.40769
04:02 UTC
Recovery off session low, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.40469
Consolidation after bounce from 1.4026.
USDCAD carved a session low at 1.4026 during US hours then recovered through the Asian session, and is now consolidating 1.4044-1.4053 into the London open. BoC's hawkish hold keeps CAD firm while softer US PPI caps the Dollar; no directional setup in play at the moment.
Support: 1.40437, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 reopens the path toward 1.4076
Loss of 1.40437 exposes the 1.4026 session low again
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY session sold off from 1.40769 to 1.40265 after soft US PPI pressured the Dollar, then bounced into a tight Asian range around 1.404–1.405. RSI(14) neutral near 53, price coiling just above EMA20/50 with no directional push into early Asia hours.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 reopens the path toward 1.40680
Loss of 1.40376 puts the 1.40265 swing low back in play
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thin Asia-session trade with USD/CAD grinding back up from the 1.40265 swing low toward the 1.40533 session high, holding sub-1.41 near one-month lows after the hawkish-hold BoC. Price is now consolidating around 1.4047 above both EMAs; RSI(14) mid-range at 54, no momentum extreme.
Support: 1.40354, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40658
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above 1.40533 session high opens 1.40658 swing high
Loss of 1.40354 asia low re-exposes the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD carved a session low at 1.40265 during NY and has since ground back to 1.40474, roughly a 40% retrace of the 1.40769-1.40265 drop. Asia hours are quiet with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR compressed to ~4-5 pips; price is consolidating between 1.40376 support and the 1.40533 swing high.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40658, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward 1.40658 prior high
Loss of 1.40346 asia low reopens the 1.40265 session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovered off session lows, consolidating mid-range.
Asia session grinding in a tight range; price recovered off the 1.40265 low toward 1.40533 then stalled, now hovering near 1.40450 on thin volatility (ATR ~4 pips). USD/CAD stays sub-1.4100 with CAD firm after the hawkish BoC hold and USD soft post-PPI.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 session high opens the path to 1.40620
Failure to hold 1.40376 swing low exposes the 1.40265 range low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
USDCAD recovered from the 1.40265 session low and stalled at 1.40533, now easing back toward the middle around 1.40450 in thin Asian-session flow. RSI(14) neutral near 48; no directional structure in play with the pair boxed between 1.40346 and 1.40533.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4065
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward 1.40650
Failure to hold 1.40346 puts the 1.40265 low back in play
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.40265 late in the prior session and printed higher lows through Asian hours, reclaiming 1.40533 before easing back to 1.4048. RSI(14) sits mid-50s and the 1.40533 recovery high is capping; broader tone still reflects a firm CAD on oil after the hawkish BoC hold.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path toward 1.40620
Loss of 1.40376 rising support reopens the 1.40265 session low
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next macro driver for the pair
USDCAD recovered through Asia hours off a double bottom near 1.4028 to tag the 1.4053 session high before easing to 1.40483, with the pair still capped sub-1.4100 near one-month lows after the hawkish-hold BoC. RSI(14) mid-range, ATR compressed near 4 pips as volume thins into the Asian range.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40281
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path to 1.40620
Failure to hold 1.40376 exposes the session low at 1.40281
Canada CPI (Mon) and US Retail Sales (Thu) are the key upcoming risks for this pair
03:02 UTC
Recovering off session low · RSI 61 · price 1.40505
Higher lows into Asia after mid-window drop.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.40769 session high to 1.40265 through the NY session, then carved a double bottom near 1.4027 and has ground back to 1.40505 — right at the 50% retrace of that leg. RSI(14) around 61 in quiet Asia hours; BoC's hawkish hold and firmer oil keep the CAD side bid while soft US PPI caps the dollar.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40658
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path back toward the 1.40658 swing high
Failure to hold 1.40376 reopens the 1.40265 low
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off session low, nearing session high.
Asia session climbing steadily off the 1.40265 low, printing higher lows back toward the 1.40533 session high, RSI(14) mid-range near 60. USD found footing on oil/Mideast flows after soft US PPI; CAD side quiet with BoC hold digested.
Support: 1.40353, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.40575
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path to 1.40575
Failure to hold 1.40353 reopens the downside toward the 1.40265 session low
Asia session grinding higher off the 1.40244 swing low, reclaiming 1.40500 during thin-liquidity hours to sit at the 50% retrace of the prior NY slide. RSI(14) mid-60s, price capped just under the 1.40533 recent high after the BoC hawkish-hold kept CAD firm.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40533 opens the 1.40620 prior high
Loss of 1.40346 session low reopens the 1.40244 swing low
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the swing low, grinding toward session high.
Asia session is grinding higher off the 1.40376 session base, printing higher lows and pressing the 1.40533 session high, RSI(14) mid-60s. USD/CAD holds well below the 1.4100 pivot flagged in context, with the recovery leg from the 1.40265 swing low intact but stalling into resistance.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40533, 1.4062, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40533 opens the path to the 1.40620 swing high
Failure to hold 1.40376 session base reopens the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Recovering off intraday low · RSI 63 · price 1.40497
Higher lows since mid-window base.
USDCAD carved a rounded base around 1.4026-1.4037 through the quiet Asia session and is grinding back toward the 1.40517 session high, RSI(14) near 63. Move reflects light two-way flow after yesterday's telegraphed BoC hold at 2.25%; a chain of higher lows holds the recovery.
Support: 1.40372, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40517, 1.4066
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40372 breaks the rising support and reopens the 1.40265 day low
Break above 1.40517 session high opens the 1.40660 prior high
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could shift this read
02:31 UTC
Recovering off session low · RSI 58 · price 1.40497
Double bottom, grinding higher.
USD/CAD bounced off the 1.4027 double bottom carved during NY hours and is grinding higher through the Asian session toward 1.4051. RSI(14) mid-range with no extreme; recovery holds above the 1.4038 range floor as USD steadies post soft US PPI.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40575, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4058 opens the path to 1.4068
Loss of 1.4038 reopens the 1.4027 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday recovery off lows · RSI 62 · price 1.40513
Double bottom near 1.4028, higher lows since.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4028 during Asia hours and has ground back to 1.4051, holding above EMA20/50. Pair remains pinned near the one-month low band flagged post-BoC hold, with 1.4057 the first cap on the recovery.
Support: 1.40346, 1.4028
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.4028 swing low reopens the 1.4039 base and sub-1.40 talk
Reclaim of 1.4057 minor high extends the recovery toward the 1.4068 session high
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
USDCAD drifted to a session low at 1.40265 then clawed back through the Asian hours, printing a chain of higher lows into 1.40513. Move is USD/oil-driven with CAD firm near one-month highs post-BoC hold; RSI(14) mid-60s, price back above EMA20/50 but capped under the 1.40540 congestion.
Support: 1.40376, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4054, 1.40607, 1.40769
What it said to watch
close above 1.40607 opens the path to the 1.40769 session high
failure to hold 1.40376 reopens the 1.40265 swing low
Canada CPI Jul 20 12:30 UTC is the next major CAD catalyst
02:02 UTC
Recovering off session low, Asia bid · RSI 63 · price 1.40492
Range, rising lows into triangle base.
Asia session grinding back up from the NY low near 1.4028 toward the 1.4039/1.4050 triangle base flagged post-BoC, RSI(14) around 63. Buyers have printed a chain of higher lows through the last ~10 bars but 1.4053 still caps.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40281
Resistance: 1.40527, 1.4062
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4053 opens the path toward 1.4062
Loss of 1.4039 reopens the session low at 1.4028
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst and could shift this read
USDCAD sits near a one-month low after the BoC held at 2.25% and soft US data kept the Loonie firm; the pair swept down to 1.40265 during NY hours then clawed back. Asian session is grinding higher into the 1.40492 area, a shade above the 50% retrace of the 1.40769-1.40265 leg, with RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40571, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Decisive close below 1.4039 triangle base signals seller control toward the 1.40265 swing low
Reclaim of 1.40571 swing high reopens the 1.40769 session high
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst and could reset this range
Higher lows after swing-low print, holding under session high.
Asia session: USDCAD bounced off the 1.40265 swing low and is grinding higher, currently sitting near the 38.2% retrace of the 1.40769-1.40265 drop with RSI back to neutral. Price presses the 1.40476 session high after the pair carved a near-monthly low around the 1.4039 triangle base.
Support: 1.40354, 1.40265, 1.4039
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40539, 1.40655
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40476 opens the path to 1.40539 then 1.40655
Failure to hold 1.40354 reopens the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst and could reset this range
USDCAD sold from the 1.40769 high into 1.40244 during NY hours, then based; quiet Asia trade has drifted the pair back to 1.40458, a ~40% retrace of that down leg. Ranging between the 1.4039 triangle base and 1.40476 session high, RSI(14) neutral near 55, no setup in play.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40265, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40476, 1.40548, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40390 triangle base reopens the 1.40265 session low
Reclaim of 1.40476 session high needed to threaten 1.40548
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst for this pair
USD/CAD sold from the 1.40769 range high to a near-monthly low at 1.40265 before basing through the Asia session and grinding back to 1.4044, right into the 1.4039/1.4050 triangle base now acting as resistance. RSI(14) mid-range near 55, no momentum extreme; price hovering just above EMA20, below EMA50.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.40548, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Decisive M15 close above 1.4050 clears the triangle base and reopens 1.40548
Loss of 1.40265 session low confirms seller control toward the 1.3970 area
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break this range
Asian session grinding in a compressed 1.4028-1.4045 range just above the 1.4039 triangle base, after yesterday's slide to a near-monthly low on the in-line BoC hold and soft US data. RSI mid-range, ATR compressed near 4 pips — no directional development in play.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40281
Resistance: 1.4045
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4028 confirms a lower-low and breaks triangle base
Reclaim above 1.4050 shifts the range top
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC is the day's key catalyst and could break this range
01:17 UTC
Range after US-session slide · RSI 49 · price 1.40404
Consolidation above swing low.
Asia session grinding sideways 1.4035–1.4045 after the US-hour slide from 1.40769 to a 1.40265 swing low, driven by firm oil and the soft US CPI/PPI backdrop. RSI(14) flat near 48 and volume thin; USD/CAD holding just above the 1.40 pivot with no setup in play.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4054
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a lower low
reclaim of 1.4045 needed to challenge 1.4054 swing high
Pullback stalling, now ranging · RSI 50 · price 1.40404
Lower high off 1.4077, higher low off 1.4026, tight range.
USDCAD parked near 4-week lows around 1.4040 in the Asia session after a steady BoC hold and soft US data drove the earlier slide from 1.4077 to 1.4026. Price has since coiled into a tight 1.4035–1.4045 range on thin Asian volume, RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.40353, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40450 opens the path back to the 1.40530 prior swing
Loss of 1.40353 session low exposes the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.40377
Consolidation after selloff.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.40769 session high to 1.40265, then recovered and has gone flat, ranging 1.4035-1.4044 through quiet Asian hours on thin volume. Pair sits pinned near 4-week lows and the 1.40 pivot after the BoC hold, with price below EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI stuck near 47.
Support: 1.4035, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40437, 1.4062, 1.40769
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4035 reopens the 1.40265 swing low and the 1.40 pivot
Reclaim of 1.40437 shifts the near-term read back toward 1.4062
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break this range once liquidity returns
01:02 UTC
Down then flat, consolidating near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.40377
Range-bound after NY decline.
USDCAD sold off from 1.4077 to 1.4027 through the NY session on the softer USD and firm oil, then flatlined into thin Asian-hours trade around 1.4038. Price is coiling between 1.4034 and 1.4045 with RSI(14) mid-range; no setup in play overnight.
Support: 1.4034, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4045
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a lower-low and reopens the 1.40 pivot
Close above 1.40450 breaks the overnight range top
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend cooling, now ranging · RSI 54 · price 1.40419
Asian range after NY sell-off.
NY session sold USDCAD from the 1.4077 peak down to 1.4027 as soft US PPI and firm oil kept CAD bid post-BoC hold. Asian session is thin and rangebound between 1.4035 and 1.4045, RSI(14) neutral near 54; no setup in play.
Support: 1.4035, 1.40281, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40445, 1.40538, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40445 breaks the Asian range top toward 1.40538
Failure to hold 1.40350 reopens the 1.40281 session low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Down leg faded to consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.40419
Ranging after lower high off session high.
USDCAD sold off from a session high of 1.40769 to 1.40244 during earlier hours, CAD underpinned by firm oil and the soft US CPI/PPI run. Thin Asia-session flow now has price ranging 1.40346–1.40450 with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.40346, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4054
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40450 reopens the 1.40540 area
Loss of 1.40346 exposes the 1.40265 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break the current range
00:32 UTC
Downtrend stalling, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.40394
Consolidation after leg down.
USDCAD leaked from the 1.40739 day high through the NY session to a 1.40265 day low, then based and is now coiling in a thin Asia range between the session low ~1.40281 and session high ~1.40445, holding just above the 1.40 psych pivot. Move reflects a firmer CAD on oil and soft US inflation, with pair pinned near 4-week USDCAD lows.
Support: 1.40281, 1.40265, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40445, 1.40548, 1.40739
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.40445 session high reopens 1.40548 swing high
Loss of 1.40265 day low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.40 pivot
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC can break the Asian range
00:32 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.40394
Consolidation near monthly low after decline.
USDCAD sold off from 1.4076 to a 1.4024 swing low, then recovered and has gone flat around 1.4038-1.4040 through thin Asia hours near the four-week low. Move was USD-soft and oil-driven; BoC held at 2.25% as expected. RSI(14) mid-range, ranges compressed to single-digit pips.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4066
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4024 confirms a lower low, opening the 1.40 psych area
Close above 1.4045 breaks the consolidation top
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Downtrend stalling, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.40375
Consolidation after lower low.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.40769 session high to a low of 1.40265 through the NY session, then bounced and stalled. Asia hours are thin and flat, price pinned near 1.40375 between 1.40350 and 1.40445, RSI(14) mid-range with no momentum.
Support: 1.40265, 1.4035
Resistance: 1.40445, 1.40525, 1.40769
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.40445 opens the path back toward 1.40525
US Retail Sales / Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) can break this Asian range
00:16 UTC
Downtrend stalling into range · RSI 47 · price 1.40375
Consolidation after late-NY selloff.
Asia session grinding sideways near 1.4038 after the late-NY selloff bottomed at 1.4024, thin volume and RSI(14) mid-range around 46. Range 1.4026-1.4045 intact with no directional impulse in play.
Support: 1.40265, 1.40244
Resistance: 1.40445, 1.40571
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40445 opens path back toward 1.40571
Failure to hold 1.40265 reopens the 1.4024 session low
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the range
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, now flat in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.40373
Tight consolidation above monthly low.
USDCAD slid from the London/NY high near 1.4077 to probe the near-monthly low around 1.4028 before buyers stabilised it; CAD firm on the oil bid and soft US CPI/PPI. Asia session has compressed into a tight 1.4035-1.4044 band with ATR down to ~5 pips, price idling just below EMA20.
Support: 1.40281, 1.40244, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40445, 1.40571
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40445 breaks the Asia range and reopens 1.40571
Failure to hold 1.40281 opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next high-impact USD catalyst
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 41 · price 1.40373
Lower highs, bounce off swing low fading.
USDCAD is grinding just above 4-week lows near 1.4037 in thin Asia-session trade, after the London-NY drift lower off the 1.4077 session high. The bounce from the 1.40265 swing low stalled at 1.40445 and price is fading again; move is USD-soft/oil-firm driven with the pair pinned near the 1.4039 pivot flagged in context.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40265
Resistance: 1.40445
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40265 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40445 needed to ease downside pressure
US Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next USD catalyst for this pair