Higher-low structure has held all month and the pair just cleared the 1.4020 seven-month high in a wide-range bar, USD/CAD's largest H4 candle in the window. The break followed the hawkish FOMC repricing — lifted dots and hot US retail sales — layered onto soft-oil CAD weakness. ATR(14) has expanded sharply off the prior 1.398–1.401 compression, with price now pressing toward the 1.4150 Nov peak.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4020, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.4150
What it said to watch
A close back below 1.4090 then 1.4020 would negate the breakout retest
A sustained close above 1.4150 opens the path higher
Canada CPI on Jun 22 12:30 UTC could materially shift the CAD side of this read
USDCAD pushed to fresh 7-month highs, clearing the 1.4020 ceiling with a wide-range bar to 1.4122 after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot lift and hot US retail sales reignited USD demand. The higher-high/higher-low sequence since early month remains intact and ATR(14) is expanding, consistent with trend extension rather than compression. Price sits well above both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI in overbought territory.
Support: 1.4020, 1.3970, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.41224, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 1.4122 opens the 1.4150 Nov peak zone
Loss of the 1.4020 prior high reopens 1.3970 and 1.3931 supports
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC and Canada CPI Jun 22 could shift this read
USDCAD has carved a steady run of higher highs and higher lows over the three-week window, lifting from the 1.3740s base to a fresh seven-month high at 1.40333, with price holding above the 1.4000 psych level. The advance reflects soft oil and a patient BoC weighing on CAD against a restrictive-Fed USD bid. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) remains contained, so the breakout is grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3972, 1.3931
Resistance: 1.40333, 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (Warsh presser 18:30) could materially shift this read within the next bar
Close above 1.40480 opens the path toward the 1.4090 Nov peak
Failure to hold 1.4000 reopens 1.39720 and questions the breakout
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing new highs · RSI 64 · price 1.40307
Higher highs, higher lows since early-month base.
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, carving higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3744 and pushing to fresh 7-month highs around 1.4033 after clearing the 1.40 ceiling. Soft oil on US-Iran peace optimism plus a patient BoC continue to weigh on CAD, while ATR(14) near 19 pips shows a steady trend extension rather than compression. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4090
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.4048 opens the path toward 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3953 breaks the higher-low structure
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near highs · RSI 61 · price 1.40106
Higher highs / higher lows, broke above 1.4000.
USDCAD remains in an established H4 uptrend, having cleared the 1.4000 round number to print seven-month highs on the oil slump and a patient BoC. Higher-high / higher-low structure is intact, with price now consolidating just under the 1.40235 swing high ahead of FOMC. Momentum is extended but EMA20 and EMA50 still align beneath price.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4048
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward 1.4048
Failure to hold 1.3953 threatens the higher-low sequence
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 61 · price 1.40106
Higher highs, higher lows above 1.4000.
USDCAD broke above the 1.4000 base to seven-month highs as the US-Iran peace-driven oil slump and a patient BoC weigh on CAD. Price is now consolidating just above 1.4000 after the spike to 1.40235, holding above rising EMA20 and EMA50. ATR is moderate, with the pair grinding rather than extending into the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4048, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path to first res 1.40480 then 1.41500
Failure to hold 1.4000 exposes 1.39310 support
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
Clean higher-high/higher-low uptrend since early month, with price grinding to a fresh 7-month high at 1.4023 before stalling. It is now consolidating in a tight band just under the 1.4020 cap as USD stays firm into the Fed on soft Oil and a patient BoC. ATR holding steady — neither expansion nor heavy compression, with the 1.4020 break the swing pivot.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4020 opens the 1.4090 congestion zone
Loss of 1.3931 breaks the higher-low structure
FOMC decision and dots today could materially shift this read
USDCAD holds an intact uptrend, grinding to fresh 7-month highs and now stalling just under the 1.4020 YTD ceiling, with CAD pinned by soft oil and a patient BoC. Price is coiling in a tight 1.3980–1.4020 band above rising EMA20/EMA50, and repeated stalls at 1.4020 show supply capping there. ATR has eased as the range tightens, leaving a breakout pending around today's Fed decision.
Support: 1.3931, 1.3899, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4020 opens the path toward 1.4090
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD remains in a clean uptrend, posting higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3730 as soft oil and a patient BoC underpin the grind. Price is now pressing the 1.40 round number with the 1.4020 YTD high capping repeatedly — momentum is flattening as ATR(14) holds a moderate ~38-pip regime. The FOMC dot-plot and Warsh's first press conference are the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.39501, 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4020 opens the path to 1.4090
Failure to hold 1.3950 confirms a lower-low
FOMC dot-plot in hours could materially shift this read
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, posting higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 1.3730 and grinding into the 1.40 round number and 1.4023 YTD high on soft oil and a patient BoC. Price is now consolidating just under that ceiling with momentum flattening — EMA20 and EMA50 still rising beneath spot. ATR has eased into the congestion, consistent with compression ahead of the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3931, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4023 ytd high opens the path to 1.4090
Failure to hold the 1.3950 swing low signals a deeper unwind toward 1.3931
FOMC dot-plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low structure intact since early month, with USDCAD breaking its multi-month base to 7-month highs near 1.40 on a slumping oil price and a patient BoC. Price stalled at 1.40235 and is now consolidating just below the 1.40-1.41 congestion ceiling, with ATR(14) running near 21 pips. EMA20 and EMA50 both sit beneath price, keeping the swing structure constructive while the ceiling caps extension.
Support: 1.3940, 1.3900, 1.38649
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40235 opens the path toward the 1.4140 zone
Failure to hold 1.3940 threatens the higher-low structure toward 1.3900
Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) could shift this read around the 1.40 pivot
Higher-high/higher-low structure intact since the early-month base near 1.375, with price grinding to fresh 7-month highs at 1.4024 before stalling under the 1.40-1.41 congestion ceiling. The leg has been fed by the oil slide and a patient BoC against a firm dollar, but ATR(14) is steady rather than expanding as price coils just below the highs. EMA20 and EMA50 remain stacked beneath price, keeping the swing structure constructive.
Support: 1.3930, 1.3900, 1.3899
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4140
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.4024 opens the path to the 1.4140 ceiling target
Failure to hold 1.3930 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC and FOMC could materially shift this read