Lower highs, lower lows; double bottom near 1.4000.
USDCAD has trended lower through the window in a clean descending channel, printing lower highs and lower lows as CAD firmed on the oil rally and soft US CPI/PPI trimmed the dollar bid. Price has twice held the 1.4000 psych zone (1.40052 and 1.40028) and bounced, carving a potential double bottom, with the latest legs reclaiming EMA20. Overhead the EMA50 near 1.4095 and prior swing at 1.4130 cap the recovery.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.3970
Reclaim of 1.4095 ema50 and 1.4130 would break the descending channel
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 51 · price 1.40632
Lower highs, double bottom at 1.4000.
Persistent downtrend since early month has printed lower highs from 1.424 and dragged price to test 1.4000 twice, forming a double bottom, with soft Canada CPI and the crude rally underpinning CAD. Price has recovered off that base and reclaimed the EMA20, though it remains well below the EMA50. ATR is steady, so the bounce is corrective within the broader decline unless 1.4075 gives way.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4075, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4075 opens the path to 1.4130 resistance
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms a lower low toward 1.3970 key support
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could reset this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 46 · price 1.40596
Lower highs, basing near 1.4000.
USDCAD has trended lower for two weeks, shedding roughly 230 pips from the mid-1.42s as the ~20% oil rally underpins CAD and soft Canadian CPI confirmed the BoC pause. Price is basing on a double bottom around 1.4000/1.40036 psych support, with the latest bar reclaiming EMA20 and bouncing to 1.40657. The descending sequence of lower highs remains intact below 1.40769.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.42383
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.40769 swing high challenges the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych confirms a lower low, exposing the 1.3970 50-dma cluster
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Downtrend intact with a clean sequence of lower highs since early month, driven by the ~20% oil rally and soft Canada CPI keeping CAD firm into the 1.4000 handle. Demand has stepped in twice near 1.4000 (double bottom at 1.40028), lifting price back to 1.4060 and above the EMA20. Price remains below the EMA50 and the descending lower-high line off 1.4171.
Support: 1.40028, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.41154, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 confirms a lower low toward the 1.3970 support cluster
Close above 1.40769 breaks the descending lower-highs line
US S&P Global PMIs Fri and Canada Retail Sales Thu could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 43 · price 1.4034
Lower highs, lower lows; testing 1.4000.
USDCAD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the breakdown below the 1.42 consolidation earlier in the window, with the slide accelerating once 1.4130 gave way. Price is now pinned to the 1.4000 psychological area, where demand has stepped in twice near 1.4003 to shape a tentative double bottom. CAD strength is oil-driven with today's Canada CPI (12:30 GMT) the immediate swing factor.
Support: 1.4003, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4075, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.4000/1.3970 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.4075 9-day ema would ease the downside pressure
USDCAD has trended lower for three weeks, printing successive lower highs and lower lows into the 1.4005 area as oil strength and a mildly dovish-but-priced BoC keep CAD firm near one-month highs. Price has since flattened into a tight consolidation just above 1.4000 with ATR(14) compressing toward 18 pips, and the two probes of 1.4005 alongside a shallower RSI trough hint at slowing downside momentum. Canada CPI (12:30 GMT, 2.9% f/c) is the immediate swing factor for the next legs.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3970, 1.3850
Resistance: 1.4075
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 opens the path to 1.3970 key support
Reclaim of 1.4075 would break the sequence of lower highs
Canada CPI 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating above 1.4000.
Sustained lower-high, lower-low structure since the mid-1.42s, with the descent accelerating through 1.4100 and now stalling just above the 1.4000 psych level. CAD strength has been underpinned by oil up ~12% on the week and short-covering into today's Canada CPI, per the macro read. The last ~10 bars have compressed into a 1.4000-1.4050 consolidation, ATR(14) cooling after the impulsive leg down.
Support: 1.4000, 1.40028, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40769, 1.41154
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 psych opens the path toward the 1.3981 fib zone
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.40577 swing high needed to break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows, compressing above 1.4000.
USDCAD has trended lower since the 1.4248 highs, printing a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows as CAD stayed oil-supported and USD stalled. Price is now compressing in a tight band just above the 1.4000 psychological pivot, with ATR(14) contracting to ~16 pips. The pair sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and demand is being tested repeatedly around 1.4003.
Support: 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4155
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 exposes the 1.3981 retracement zone
Reclaim of 1.4050 (ema20) needed to ease downside pressure
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
USDCAD is in a clear H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4248 rejection, now pinned at a one-month low near 1.4000. ATR(14) is compressing as price consolidates in a tight 1.4005-1.4058 band just above the psychological pivot — CAD strength is oil-led (~12% weekly crude rally) rather than domestic. Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT is the near-term catalyst that could resolve the compression.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4058
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 opens the path toward 1.3981 fib support
Reclaim of 1.4058 challenges the descending lower-high structure
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT could resolve the compression at the lows
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 41 · price 1.40186
Lower highs, lower lows; basing near 1.40.
Downtrend intact on H4: successive lower highs and lower lows since the early-month peak near 1.4247, with price now pressing one-month lows and the 1.40 psych level on firm oil and CAD outperformance. The last two sessions have compressed into a 1.4005–1.4058 range, holding just above the 1.4005 swing low while capped by the range top. Canada CPI today is the immediate catalyst for this pair.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4058
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.4005 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3981 fib pivot
Close above 1.4058 range top would question the decline
USDCAD has trended lower for two weeks, printing successive lower highs and lower lows to press one-month lows near the 1.40 handle as surging oil and a softer USD backdrop support the Loonie. Price is now basing just above the 1.4005 swing low with momentum flattening; the 1.3981 38.2% fib sits as the next downside pivot flagged by desks. Rebounds have repeatedly stalled beneath the 1.4048 prior high.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4048
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4005 swing low opens the 1.3981 38.2% fib
Reclaim of the 1.4048 prior high would ease the lower-high pressure
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul 12:30 UTC could reset this read
Firmer crude / Hormuz supply headlines keep downside pressure on the pair