USDCAD sold off from the 1.4200s through early month as soft June CAD CPI cemented a BoC pause, bottoming twice near 1.4000. Price has since carved higher lows and is now retesting the 1.4100 confluence hurdle flagged as the pivot for the pair. ATR(14) is elevated after the down-leg, so the base-building bounce still sits inside a broader lower-high structure.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130, 1.4175
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.4100 confluence needed to extend the recovery toward 1.4130
Failure to hold 1.4000 swing low reopens 1.3970 50-dma support
Downtrend intact since early July, carving lower highs and lower lows from 1.4248 into a double bottom at the 1.4000 handle. Soft Canada CPI and fresh US tariff headlines pressured CAD, but USDCAD has repeatedly stalled below the 1.4100 confluence and is now recovering off the double btm toward that hurdle. ATR(14) is expanding modestly as the bounce extends.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4100 confluence reasserts upside toward 1.4130 prior high
Loss of 1.4000 double bottom opens 1.3970 50-dma
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs into 1.4000 base, double bottom forming.
Multi-week downtrend from 1.4240 has printed a sequence of lower highs, but the slide stalled twice at the 1.4000 psychological floor, carving a double bottom after Monday's soft Canadian CPI cemented the BoC pause. Price has since recovered to test the 1.4100 confluence hurdle, with EMA20 reclaimed while EMA50 still caps overhead. ATR(14) around 32 pips reflects a moderating regime as the bounce probes the descending lower-high structure.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4130 upper band would break the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych reopens 1.3970 50-dma and 1.3870 below
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Rejection at 1.4100 confluence keeps the downtrend intact
USDCAD has trended lower for two weeks in a clean sequence of lower highs, sliding from the 1.4240 area to the 1.4000 psychological floor where a double bottom (1.4005/1.4004) has formed and buyers defended twice. Soft Canada June CPI and the tariff overhang are largely digested, and the pair is now recovering with USD firmer on safe-haven flows; price has reclaimed EMA20 but is still capped below EMA50 near 1.4090 and the 1.40850 swing high. ATR near 43 pips shows moderate expansion off the low.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4100 confluence would break the descending resistance and negate the pullback read
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms a lower low and reopens downside toward 1.3870
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could shift the CAD read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off 1.4000 · RSI 52 · price 1.40673
Lower highs, lower lows; basing at 1.4000.
Downtrend intact on H4, carving lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4247 top; price twice based at the 1.4000 psychological handle (1.40052 / 1.40036), forming a double bottom, and has since recovered to 1.4067. Soft Canadian June CPI cemented the BoC pause and helped drive the earlier slide, but the bounce off 1.4000 has lifted price back above EMA20 while EMA50 still caps overhead.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100, 1.4165
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4100 confluence breaks the descending lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms continuation toward 1.3970
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower for three weeks, carving lower highs and lower lows from the 1.424 area down to the 1.4000 psychological pivot. Price held that pivot twice to form a double bottom and has since rebounded toward the 1-week high near 1.4085, in line with the softer Canadian CPI and tariff-driven CAD pressure. ATR(14) near 18 pips marks a modest expansion off the lows as the bounce gains traction.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4085 opens the path to the 1.4130 range top
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot re-opens the 1.3970 50-dma and lower
Downtrend intact on H4 with lower highs and lower lows since the mid-window peak near 1.4238, dragging price to a double bottom around 1.4000 — the psychological pivot flagged after soft Canada CPI and firm USD. Demand stepped in twice at 1.4000 and price has recovered roughly 85 pips to the 1.4085 1-week high before easing back to 1.4064. ATR(14) has compressed to ~18 pips, and price has recovered above EMA20 while EMA50 still caps overhead.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130, 1.4175
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.4085 opens the 1.4130 range top
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot re-opens 1.3970 50-dma
Canada Retail Sales Thu could shift the read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off base · RSI 58 · price 1.40783
Double bottom at 1.4004 after multi-day decline.
USDCAD trended lower through July from the 1.424 area to a double bottom at 1.4004, with soft Canadian CPI and a firm oil bid weighing before this week's recovery. Price has since reclaimed the EMA20 on a bounce back to 1.4085 but remains capped below the EMA50 near 1.412. ATR has compressed as the pair based, leaving the 1.4004 floor and the 1.4085/1.4120 band framing the next move.
Support: 1.4004, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4120, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4120 EMA50 challenges the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.4004 double bottom exposes 1.3970 key support
Canada Retail Sales Thu could shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off support · RSI 49 · price 1.40783
Lower highs, lower lows; rebound from 1.4000.
USDCAD has trended lower for two weeks in a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, printing a base around the 1.4000 round number where price held twice. The current leg up off that double-bottom follows yesterday's soft Canadian CPI miss and a firmer USD, lifting price back above EMA20 while EMA50 still caps overhead. Momentum is neutralising from oversold but structure remains bearish below the descending lower-highs line.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4085 then 1.4130 challenges the downtrend structure
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes 1.3970
Canada Retail Sales Thu could reset the CAD read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 56 · price 1.40701
Lower highs / lower lows since ~1.424, triple-bottom near 1.4000.
USDCAD has trended lower for two weeks, printing lower highs from ~1.424 into a base near the 1.4000 round number, where buyers stepped in three times to form a triple bottom. The >20% oil rally underpinning CAD drove the decline, but the pair has since bounced to 1.4070, reclaiming the EMA20 while still below the EMA50. ATR is moderate and the recovery is testing the descending lower-highs structure.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4130 prior swing would challenge the downtrend structure
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number / triple bottom confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 55 · price 1.40701
Lower highs, double bottom near 1.4000.
USDCAD has trended lower through the window, printing lower highs off the 1.424 area into a double bottom near the 1.40 psych level, where demand has stepped in twice. The current leg is a corrective bounce, with price back above EMA20 but still capped below the EMA50 and the descending lower-high line. The oil rally and unwind of CAD shorts have underpinned the Loonie, while yesterday's soft Canada CPI capped the move.
Support: 1.4003, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4085 recent high would break the descending lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.40 psych / monthly low confirms downtrend continuation toward 1.3970 50-dma
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read