USDCAD has climbed steadily off the 1.4004 weekly low, with the pair extending a two-day recovery on fresh Trump tariff threats and firmer USD. Price is now pressing the 1.4100 confluence hurdle, printing repeated highs near 1.4110 while RSI(14) stalls in overbought territory — the h1 base around 1.4075 has held every pullback this week. Momentum is flattening into the week-high zone.
Support: 1.4075, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41105 opens the path toward the 1.4130 upper band
Loss of the 1.4075 h1 base would break the run of higher lows
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 68 · price 1.41094
Higher highs, higher lows since Monday's open.
USDCAD has recovered steadily off the 1.4004 weekly low, grinding through the NY session yesterday into a week high near 1.4110 as fresh Trump tariff threats capped CAD. Price holds well above EMA20/50 with pullbacks staying shallow, but momentum is stalling into the 1.4100 confluence with RSI in overbought territory. The 1.4110 area has now capped the advance, leaving the pair pressing against resistance rather than extending.
Support: 1.4080, 1.4057, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4130 upper band
Loss of 1.4080 EMA20 would mark the first break of the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could reshape this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 68 · price 1.41064
Higher highs and higher lows since weekly open.
USDCAD has climbed steadily off the 1.40036 weekly low, rebounding after soft Canadian CPI, and cleared the 1.4100 confluence into the NY session to print a week high at 1.41105. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with pullbacks finding the rising trendline; RSI(14) is elevated near 68, reflecting stretched momentum after four straight sessions of demand. The 1.4130 area is the next resistance overhead.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4057, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.4100 negates the breakout
1.4130 resistance — area to watch for rejection or break
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 67 · price 1.41064
Higher highs and higher lows, above 1.4100.
USDCAD ground higher off the 1.4000 weekly low all week, with the dominant leg building through the NY session as softer Canadian June CPI kept the Loonie on the back foot. Price has now cleared the 1.4100 confluence hurdle and is consolidating just above it around 1.4106, RSI(14) elevated near 67 without a bearish divergence yet. Pullbacks have consistently found the H1 EMA(20), which sits below price and has framed the advance.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.4100 negates the breakout and reopens 1.4057
A push through 1.4110 session high exposes 1.4130 next hurdle
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could materially shift this read
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's open, rebounding off the 1.4000 handle and pushing through the 1.4100 confluence that capped attempts earlier this week — a move fed by soft Canadian CPI and fresh tariff overhang on the Loonie. NY-session buyers drove the latest leg with price riding EMA(20), and each pullback has held above it. RSI(14) is elevated near 70, so the break through 1.4100 is being tested with momentum stretched.
Support: 1.4065, 1.4028, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above 1.4100 confluence reaffirms the breakout; a close back below questions it
Failure to hold 1.4065 prior high signals loss of the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum extended · price 1.41099
Higher highs, breakout above 1.4100.
USDCAD has ground higher since Friday's session, accelerating through the NY session yesterday toward 1.4110 after soft Canadian June CPI kept the BoC pause in view. Price has cleared the 1.4100 confluence that capped moves earlier this week, with RSI(14) elevated near overbought as the move stretches. EMA(20) has guided each pullback, keeping the intraday structure constructive.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4065, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above 1.4100 reaffirms the breakout; a slip back under it puts the move at risk
Failure to hold 1.40650 would mark a lower high and stall the uptrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.4003 one-month low, rebuilding through the NY session on softer Canadian June CPI that cements a BoC pause. Price cleared the 1.4100 confluence and printed a session high at 1.4110, holding above EMA20 on every pullback with RSI(14) now elevated near 70. The advance is stretched into the round-number hurdle the digest flags as needing a sustained break.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4055, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above 1.4100 confirms the breakout; loss of it flags a false break
Rejection at 1.4110 session high would cap the run and open a pullback to the higher-low trendline
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 12:30 UTC could reprice this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 69 · price 1.41053
Series of higher highs and higher lows off Monday's low.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's 1.4000 low, riding above EMA(20) into the NY session with RSI(14) elevated near 69. The rebound follows soft Canadian CPI cementing a BoC pause and the fresh US tariff overhang, and price has now pushed through the 1.4100 round-number confluence to print a week high at 1.4110. Momentum is stretched but pullbacks have been finding EMA(20) around 1.4075.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.41104, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4110 week high opens the path to 1.4130
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number and a break below EMA20 at 1.4075 would stall the uptrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.4004 week low, rallying through the NY session with a clean break above the 1.4100 psych/confluence level after softer Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines pressured the Loonie. Price is holding well above EMA20, with pullbacks this week finding it and RSI(14) now pushing 71 into overbought territory. The week high at 1.41102 has just been tagged; 1.4130 is the next area to watch.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4072, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.41102, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 psych reaffirms the breakout; a slip back below reopens the 1.4072 ema20
Failure to clear the 1.41102 week high leaves the extension vulnerable to a fade
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst for this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into 1.4100 · RSI 72 · price 1.41069
Higher highs, breakout above 1.4100 confluence.
USDCAD has ground higher off Thursday's 1.4003 one-month low, with the rally accelerating through the NY session as soft Canadian CPI and the fresh 50% tariff headline weighed on CAD. Price has now cleared the 1.4100 confluence and printed a week high at 1.4110, holding well above EMA(20). RSI(14) is stretched into overbought near 72, so the pace of the leg is worth monitoring.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4057, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4100 on a close puts the breakout retest in question
Sustained trade above 1.4110 opens the 1.4130 tariff hurdle
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this read
USDCAD has trended higher since the weekly open near 1.4004, extending through the 1.4100 confluence during the NY session as soft Canadian CPI reinforced the BoC-pause narrative and the dollar stayed firm. Pullbacks have held above the rising EMA(20), with the last dip into 1.4057 quickly bought back. RSI(14) near 71 flags stretched conditions as price prints a fresh week high at 1.4105.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4130, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.4130 upper band would extend the run toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4057 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri could shift this read
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's soft CPI print knocked BoC-hike odds, extending through the NY session into a fresh week high at 1.4105. Price holds well above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pushing into overbought near 71, and the 1.4105 area is now the level capping progress. The 50% US tariff headline adds a slow-burn CAD-negative backdrop behind the move.
Support: 1.4058, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4105 opens the path to the 1.4130 upper band
Failure to hold 1.4058 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
RSI overbought into resistance — stall risk at the week high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 67 · price 1.40959
Higher highs and higher lows off week low.
USDCAD has ground steadily higher since Monday's dip to the 1.4000 psych floor, with the dominant leg extending through yesterday's NY session as soft Canadian CPI (2.8% vs 2.9%) cemented a BoC pause. Price holds well above EMA20 and EMA50 and now presses the 1.4100 confluence, capping the current-day high at 1.41042. RSI(14) is elevated near 67, reflecting the run-up without yet flagging exhaustion.
Support: 1.4074, 1.4056, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41042
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 confluence opens the path toward 1.4130
Failure to hold 1.40740 session low would stall the higher-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD has rallied off Monday's 1.4000 low, with the dominant leg accelerating through the NY session as softer-than-forecast Canadian CPI cemented a BoC pause. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 and is now pressing the 1.4100 confluence, having tagged 1.4104 this session. RSI(14) is stretched near 71, so the move into resistance is running hot.
Support: 1.4065, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4104, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 confluence opens 1.4130 upper band
Rejection at 1.4100 with a slip back below EMA20 (~1.4065) stalls the rally
Loss of 1.4000 psych re-exposes 1.3970 50-dma
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
16:02 UTC
Uptrend into 1.4100 hurdle · RSI 71 · price 1.4099
Higher highs, higher lows since Monday.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily since Monday's reopen, rebounding off the 1.4000 floor after the soft CAD CPI print cemented the BoC pause, and pressing into the 1.4100 confluence during the NY session. RSI(14) sits near 71 and price is riding above EMA20/EMA50, but the pace of the last few bars leaves momentum stretched right at the hurdle. The 1.4100 area has yet to be cleared on a closing basis.
Support: 1.4065, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4100 confluence opens the path to 1.4130 upper band
Loss of 1.4065 swing low would break the week's rising sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape the CAD leg of this move
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's session low near 1.4004, extending through the NY session yesterday and into today as soft Canadian CPI cemented the BoC pause. Price now presses the 1.4100 confluence hurdle with RSI(14) stretched into overbought near 71, and pullbacks have consistently held above the H1 EMA(20). The 1.4130 upper band sits as the next reference above the round number.
Support: 1.4065, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Rejection at 1.4100 confluence would cap the week's advance
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 opens the path to 1.4130
Loss of 1.4065 EMA(20) would break the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the near-term read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 68 · price 1.40928
Higher highs and higher lows, testing week high.
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.4004 week low since Wednesday's session, extending through the NY hours to test the 1.4100 confluence with the week high at 1.4099 just overhead. The bid follows soft Canadian June CPI and a steady-BoC read, with elevated oil the offsetting cap. Price sits well above EMA(20) near 1.4065 and RSI(14) is elevated near 68 as the move stretches into resistance.
Support: 1.4065, 1.4045, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.40991, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 confluence opens the path to 1.4130
Failure to hold the rising trendline / 1.4065 ema20 marks the first lower low this week
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USDCAD rebounded off the 1.4000 weekly low through Thursday and has climbed steadily since, printing higher lows into the NY session and now testing the 1.4100 confluence with RSI(14) stretched near 71. The recovery follows softer Canadian June CPI cementing a BoC pause, with a firm USD keeping the pair bid. Price sits well above EMA20, and pullbacks this week have held above that average.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.40991
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 confluence would extend the breakout toward 1.4130
Loss of 1.4070 ema20 would be the first sign momentum is stalling
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift the near-term read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum building · RSI 66 · price 1.40847
Higher highs and higher lows since post-gap low.
USDCAD has ground higher through the week, breaking above the 1.4060 swing area during yesterday's NY session and pressing into the 1.40892 week high as softer Canada CPI and elevated oil-linked USD demand kept the bid alive. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 66, and pullbacks have found the rising higher-low structure since the post-gap low near 1.4003. The 1.4100 confluence overhead still caps the advance.
Support: 1.4060, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40892, 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4100 confluence opens the path to 1.4130
Loss of the 1.4060 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 68 · price 1.40847
Higher highs since Monday's low, breakout of prior-week range.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's 1.40028 low, printing higher highs into the NY session and now testing the week high at 1.40892. The bid follows soft Canadian June CPI (2.8% vs 2.9%) and Trump's 50% tariff threat, with firm oil the only CAD cushion; price holds well above the rising EMA(20) near 1.40700, and pullbacks this week have been shallow. The 1.41000 psychological confluence caps the advance for now.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4057, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.40892, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41000 psych opens the path toward 1.4130
Failure to hold the 1.40700 ema20 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 61 · price 1.40752
Higher lows since Monday's low, testing week high.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's session low near 1.4004, rebuilding after softer Canadian June CPI and firmer USD; the pair now holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling in the upper half. The week high at 1.4085 capped the latest NY push, with the pair pulling back to 1.4075. Higher lows through the week keep the structure constructive while the 1.4100 confluence overhead remains untested.
Support: 1.4065, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
A sustained H1 close above 1.4085 opens the path to the 1.4100 confluence
Loss of 1.4065 swing low would break the week's higher-low sequence
Sharp move in crude — the key CAD offset — could shift this read
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD risk
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 65 · price 1.40752
Higher highs/lows off 1.4000 rebound.
USDCAD has rebounded steadily off the 1.4000 psych area since the weekend, driven through the NY session by soft Canadian CPI and a firmer USD, with Trump's 50% tariff on Canadian goods an added CAD overhang. Price now trades above EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) cycling in the low 60s, and the week high at 1.4085 has capped the latest push. The 1.4100 confluence hurdle sits just above as the next resistance to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 confluence reaffirms the rally
Failure to hold 1.4057 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 could shift the CAD read
Consolidating below week high after rally off 1.4000.
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.4000 trough through the NY session, peaking near 1.4085 as soft Canadian CPI and the fresh 50% US tariff proclamation weighed on CAD. Price has since drifted into consolidation, pinned to the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling back toward 54. The 1.4100 confluence has capped the advance and the pair is holding above the 1.4054 session low.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4020, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4100 confluence reaffirms the week's uptrend
Failure to hold 1.40540 session low opens 1.4020 and the 1.4000 week low
USD/CAD has been bought for a second day off the 1.4000 week low, driven by soft Canadian CPI and the fresh 50% US tariff proclamation, with the safe-haven USD bid adding support. The rally peaked at 1.4085 and has since consolidated, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling back toward the mid-50s. Buyers stepped in again around 1.4054, keeping the run of higher lows intact.
Support: 1.4054, 1.40174, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 1.4100 confluence reaffirms the uptrend toward the upper band
Failure to hold 1.4054 breaks the run of higher lows
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst for CAD
Pullback off week high after rebound from monthly low.
USDCAD rebounded from the 1.4000 monthly low midweek and pushed to a 1.40826 week high into the NY session yesterday, aided by soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff proclamation. Price has since slipped back below EMA20 (~1.4068) and now sits at 1.40594, with RSI easing toward the mid-40s as the up-leg loses pace. Rejection at the week high stalled the advance short of the 1.4100 confluence.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.40826, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4068 EMA20 would re-engage the rally toward the week high
Loss of 1.4054 session low opens the path back toward the 1.4000 monthly low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US PMIs Fri could reset this read
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4004 weekly low through the NY session, tagging a week high near 1.4085 before stalling into the 1.4100 confluence — the move backed by softer Canadian CPI and the fresh 50% US tariff proclamation. Price has since pulled back below EMA20 to 1.4059, holding above the session low at 1.4053 with RSI(14) rolling off toward the midline. The higher-low sequence from Monday remains intact but the advance is capped under 1.4085.
Support: 1.4053, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4100 confluence reaffirms the week's uptrend
Failure to hold 1.4053 session low exposes the 1.4004 weekly low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
Higher lows since week low, pulling back after impulse.
USDCAD carved a base near 1.4004 into midweek then ran through the NY session to a 1.4085 week high, CAD pressured by the soft June CPI miss and the 50% US tariff proclamation while USD stayed firm. Price has since eased back below EMA(20) to 1.4058, retesting the broken 1.4050 shelf, with RSI(14) cooling back toward the mid-40s. Structure remains a sequence of higher lows off the week low, but the pullback has stalled the impulse.
Support: 1.4053, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained break above the 1.4100 confluence extends the impulse
Failure to hold 1.4053 swing low reopens the 1.4004 week low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the week's tier-1 CAD catalyst
USDCAD has recovered off the ~1.4003 weekly base, lifted by soft Canadian June CPI and the announced US tariff proclamation on Canadian goods. The advance stalled at 1.40826, short of the 1.4100 confluence, and price has since slipped back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling toward 46. Structure still shows higher lows this week, but the pullback into 1.4055 is testing the rising base.
Support: 1.40553, 1.40028, 1.4068
Resistance: 1.40826, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4100 confluence reaffirms the recovery leg
Loss of 1.4055 session low exposes the 1.4028 weekly low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could reshape this read
Higher lows since weekly low, pullback from week high.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.40028 weekly low through yesterday's London-NY session to a week high of 1.40850, driven by soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines widening the BoC-Fed divergence read. Price has since faded to 1.40663, hovering around EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling back to 51 after two rejections into the 1.40800/1.40850 zone. Higher lows remain intact above the 1.40576 swing.
Support: 1.40576, 1.40028, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4080
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.40576 breaks the higher-low sequence and re-opens the 1.4000 psych pivot
A close above 1.40850 week high extends the up-leg
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and Fri US PMIs could reshape this read
USDCAD reclaimed 1.4000 and rallied through the NY session to a week high at 1.4085, with CAD on the back foot after the soft June CPI miss and Trump's 50% tariff headlines. Price has since faded back to the EMA20 near 1.4066, holding a higher-low sequence off the 1.4003 base. RSI(14) has cooled from its push and now cycles around the mid-50s, consistent with consolidation under the highs.
Support: 1.4000, 1.4003, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4080, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 opens the 1.4130 range top
Loss of 1.4000 re-opens the 1.3970 50-dma and week low
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4003 area to a week high at 1.4085 as soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines undercut CAD. The move stalled and price has drifted back to 1.4064, slipping just under the EMA20 while holding well above the EMA50. RSI has cooled to the low 50s as the pullback develops below the 1.4085 cap.
Support: 1.40576, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4085
What it said to watch
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4068 reopens the 1.4085 week high
Loss of 1.40576 session low exposes the 1.4030 zone
Canada Retail Sales Thu and US PMIs Fri could reset this read
Higher lows since week open, pulling back from week high.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4007 after a weekend gap lower, then ground higher through the NY sessions to a one-week high at 1.4085, helped by soft Canadian CPI and fresh tariff headlines weighing on CAD. Price has since faded to 1.4064, slipping back to the EMA(20) as the pullback develops. The 1.4085 area capped the advance and is the level to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.4050, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4079
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 (week high) opens continuation higher
Loss of 1.4050 swing low breaks the rising higher-low sequence
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.40030 low toward 1.40850 after soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff headline knocked the Loonie. That NY-session high has since capped and price has slipped back under the H1 EMA(20) near 1.40660, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s. The broader week structure remains a series of higher lows, but the immediate leg is corrective.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4066, 1.4085
What it said to watch
Hold of 1.40500 keeps the higher-low structure intact
Reclaim of the EMA(20) near 1.40660 reopens the 1.40850 week high
Loss of 1.40030 weekly low negates the recovery
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
USD/CAD recovered off the 1.4005 week low and ground higher through yesterday's NY session to 1.4085, with soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines weighing on CAD. That 1.4085 print rejected, and price has since slipped back under the EMA20 near 1.4066 as RSI cools toward 50. The rising sequence of higher lows off 1.4005 is still intact while 1.4055 holds.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4066, 1.4085
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 reopens the path higher
Failure to hold 1.4055 higher low exposes the 1.4005 week low
Canada Retail Sales Thu and US PMIs Fri could reshape this read
Higher lows off Wednesday's base, rally stalling at week high.
USDCAD has recovered off the 1.4004 week low, climbing back through EMA20 after Monday's soft Canadian CPI kept a bid under the pair alongside a firm Dollar. The NY-session advance stalled at the 1.4085 week high, and a shallow pullback into 1.4070 is holding above EMA20 with RSI cycling around 60. The rising-lows sequence off the base remains intact.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4056 (ema20) breaks the rising-lows sequence
Break above 1.4085 week high opens 1.4100 round number then 1.4130
Higher lows since the weekend gap, capped near 1.4085.
USD/CAD gapped higher into the new week and rallied off the 1.4004 week low to a 1.4085 high, holding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) through the NY session. The leg followed Monday's soft Canadian CPI miss that killed remaining BoC tightening hopes, with a firm USD adding support. Price is now consolidating just below 1.4085 with RSI(14) easing back from the low-60s.
Support: 1.4047, 1.4009, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 opens the path toward 1.4130 resistance
Loss of 1.4047 breaks the run of higher lows
Canada Retail Sales Thu Jul 23 12:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst
USDCAD rebounded off the 1.4003 weekly base after Monday's soft Canadian CPI (2.8% vs 2.9%) cooled remaining BoC tightening hopes, with a firm Dollar driving the recovery. The dominant leg came through the NY session yesterday, lifting price from ~1.4036 to the 1.4085 week high; it now consolidates near 1.4070, holding above EMA(20). RSI(14) is cycling in the mid-50s to low-60s on each push, consistent with a maturing but slowing advance.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4066, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4085 opens the path toward 1.4100/1.4130
Failure to hold 1.4060 exposes the 1.4003 weekly low
Canada Retail Sales Thu and US PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
USDCAD recovered off the week low near 1.40028 after Monday's soft Canada CPI trimmed CAD, then ran higher through the NY session to a 1.40850 week high. Price is holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s; the last two bars stalled and pulled back from 1.40806, leaving a rejection near the highs. The 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse sits around 1.40560, aligning with the EMA20 as the first pullback reference.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4019, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4085
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.40560 fib zone would deepen the pullback toward 1.40190 prior high
Sustained break above 1.40850 week high extends the uptrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu is the next domestic catalyst that could shift this read
USDCAD has climbed steadily off the 1.40028 swing low since Sunday's reopen, printing higher lows and clearing the prior 1.406 consolidation into the NY session. The bid follows soft Canadian June CPI reinforcing a BoC pause alongside a firm USD safe-haven tone, though RSI(14) near 68 shows momentum stretched into 1.40850. Pullbacks have so far held above the rising EMA20.
Support: 1.4055, 1.40028, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.40850 opens the path to the 1.41000 psych level
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.40550 would break the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 23 Jul 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USD/CAD has recovered steadily off Monday's low near 1.4003, with soft Canadian June CPI cementing the BoC pause and reviving rate-divergence upside despite a firm oil bid. Price broke above the 1.4067 prior high into the NY session and is pressing the 1.4085 session high, holding above EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) is cycling in the low-to-mid 60s as each pullback finds support along the rising lows.
Support: 1.40567, 1.4045, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4055 prior high / EMA20 questions the recovery structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 23 Jul could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 68 · price 1.40797
Higher highs and higher lows off weekly low.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since basing at the 1.40036 weekly low, with the dominant leg driven through the NY session as soft Canadian CPI revived rate-divergence buying, oil strength only partly offsetting. Price now sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 68; the prior 1.40650 cap has flipped to a retest floor. Session high at 1.40850 is the immediate ceiling.
Support: 1.4065, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained move above 1.40850 opens the path to 1.41000 psych and the 1.4130 band
Failure to hold 1.40650 retest threatens the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu and US PMIs Fri are the week's catalysts and could reset this read
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 68 · price 1.40797
Higher highs and higher lows off week low.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's open, rallying from the week low near 1.40028 to a session high at 1.40850 after soft Canadian CPI reinforced the BoC pause and rate divergence. Price is holding well above EMA20/50 with RSI cycling in the mid-to-upper 60s, and the earlier break above 1.40700 has flipped that level into near-term support. The advance has been progressive on higher lows through the NY sessions rather than a single impulse.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4030, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40850 opens the path toward 1.41000 then the 1.41300 supply band
Loss of the 1.40700 shelf and the ascending trendline would signal momentum fading
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 61 · price 1.40741
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open.
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's open near 1.4003, rallying to a session high at 1.4085 before easing to 1.4074, with soft Canadian June CPI cementing the BoC pause and reviving rate-divergence support. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50, with pullbacks holding above the rising EMA20 line and RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s. The 1.4085 session high caps the current leg while an oil bid offsets part of the CAD weakness.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4003, 1.4056
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 opens the path toward the 1.4130 resistance band
Failure to hold EMA20 near 1.4045 exposes the Monday low around 1.4003
Canada Retail Sales Thu and US PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum easing · RSI 61 · price 1.40741
Recovery off weekly base, higher lows.
USDCAD has climbed steadily from Monday's ~1.4000 open, printing higher lows through the NY session yesterday and tagging a week high at 1.4085 as soft Canadian June CPI revived rate-divergence upside. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 55-65 band; the last few bars have stalled just under 1.4085, a level that has now capped the push. A rising-oil bid remains the main offset to the dovish-BoC CAD softness.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4000, 1.4029
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 opens the path toward the 1.4130 cap
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.4045 exposes the 1.4000 weekly low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the read
USDCAD has rebounded steadily since Monday's open near 1.4007, climbing off the 1.4003 week low with each pullback holding above the rising EMA(20). The dominant leg came through the NY session yesterday, breaking the 1.4056 prior high and tagging 1.4085 before drifting into a tight hold around 1.4074; the recovery leans on a firmer USD and CAD's earlier oil-driven bid fading. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s, elevated but not stretched, with price consolidating just under the week high.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4050, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4085
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 extends the week's higher-high sequence
Loss of 1.4056 prior high signals the breakout is failing
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this read
Reversal in crude would remove CAD's earlier tailwind
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 64 · price 1.40743
Higher highs and higher lows off week's base.
USDCAD has climbed steadily off the 1.4000 base carved early this week, tagging a session high at 1.40850 before easing back toward 1.4074. The lift followed yesterday's soft Canada CPI (2.8% vs 2.9%) meeting a firmer USD, with the oil-driven CAD bid fading. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 60s on each pullback.
Support: 1.4065, 1.4045, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.40850 opens the path to the 1.41000 round number
Loss of 1.40450 breakout base would flip the higher-low structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US S&P PMIs Fri could reset this read
Higher lows off 1.4000 base, rally stalling under session high.
USDCAD based twice near 1.4000 and rallied through the NY session to a 1.4085 session high, helped by a firmer USD and soft Canadian CPI capping the oil-led CAD bid. Price is now consolidating around 1.4070, holding above a rising EMA20 with RSI cycling near 60 as the impulse cools. The 1.4085 high has capped the latest push.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4050, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4085 opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.4045 would stall the recovery
Failure to hold the 1.4000 base confirms a lower low
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4000 midweek — the zone that capped CAD's oil-driven gains and soft-CPI bid — and has recovered steadily into the Asia session, tagging a week high at 1.40850 before easing to 1.40701. Price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-60s; the 38.2%/50% retracement band (1.40540/1.40450) is the first area to monitor on any pullback.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4045, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4077
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40850 opens the path back toward this-week highs
Loss of the 1.40450 fib band would question the recovery structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read