USDCAD rallied off the 1.4003 low toward the 1.4110 week high through Tuesday's NY session, the leg powered by Monday's soft CAD CPI miss and fresh US tariff headlines. Since the peak the pair has drifted into consolidation around 1.4090, capped by the EMA20 with RSI cooling back below 50. The 1.4080 session low is holding for now, keeping the broader higher-low structure intact.
Support: 1.4080, 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 1.4110 week high reopens 1.4150 resistance
Loss of 1.4080 session low would break this-week's higher-low sequence toward 1.4057
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Pullback from week high, consolidating below 1.4100.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.4008 low through the week after soft Canada CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, peaking at 1.4111 before stalling at the 1.4100 pivot. Price has since eased back to sit around EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling below 50, consolidating in the 1.4078–1.4092 band. The 1.4100 area has capped the recovery, keeping the pair boxed into the NY close.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4008
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst for this range
Hourly close above 1.4111 reopens the upside toward the pivot break
Failure to hold 1.4078 confirms a lower-low off the week high
22:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 1.40855
Consolidating below weekly high after impulse up.
USDCAD ran two up-days off the 1.4000 area after Monday's soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff shock, tagging a week high at 1.41104 before rolling over. Price is now consolidating around the 1.4100 psych pivot, having dipped back below EMA(20) while holding above EMA(50); RSI(14) has cooled toward the mid-40s after the impulse. The 1.4076 swing low is the near-term floor capping the pullback.
Support: 1.4076, 1.40553, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41104
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41104 reopens the continuation path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.40760 confirms a lower low toward 1.40553
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USDCAD rallied off Tuesday's 1.4003 dip after Monday's soft CAD CPI reinforced the BoC pause, tagging a week high at 1.41105 into the NY session before stalling at the 1.4100 psych pivot. Price has since rounded over and slipped back under the H1 EMA20 near 1.4092, with RSI cycling back to the mid-40s. The 1.4078 session low is the immediate marker holding the pullback.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.40780 opens a retest of the 1.4003 week low
Reclaim of 1.4100 psych reopens the 1.41105 week high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rallied off Monday's soft CPI-driven bounce from the 1.4004 area, grinding up through the week to a 1.4111 high before stalling into the NY session yesterday. Price has since rounded off and slipped below EMA(20), now consolidating around 1.4085 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-40s. The weekly higher-low structure off 1.4004 remains intact but the advance has lost momentum near the highs.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40553, 1.40424
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.40800 exposes the ascending trendline and 1.40553 swing low
Reclaim of 1.41000 and a break of 1.41110 week high would resume the uptrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs into week high, now consolidating below 1.4110.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4000 area since Monday's soft CPI print and the fresh US tariff shock, peaking at 1.41105 before supply capped it at the 1.4100 psych pivot. Price has since drifted back to 1.4087, sitting just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Week's uptrend intact above the 1.4055 higher-low structure, but momentum has flattened at the highs.
Support: 1.40803, 1.40553, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41105 reopens the uptrend beyond the 1.4100 psych level
Failure to hold 1.40803 exposes the 1.4055 swing low and threatens the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading after week high · RSI 45 · price 1.40837
Impulse to 1.4110 then pullback, consolidating.
USDCAD ran up two sessions off the 1.4004 week low after Monday's soft CAD CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, tagging a 1.4110 week high before stalling. Price has since drifted back under EMA(20) to 1.4084, with RSI(14) rolling off toward 45 as the 1.4100 psych level and 1.4110 high cap the advance. The 1.4076 swing low is the near-term floor holding the pullback for now.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4110 week high resumes the up-leg
Loss of 1.4076 swing low opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych area
Canada Retail Sales Thu could materially shift this read
A WTI rollover would remove the CAD cushion capping upside
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum rolling over · RSI 44 · price 1.40837
Higher highs stalling below week high.
USDCAD ran a clean uptrend off Monday's 1.4005 low after the soft June CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, peaking at 1.41104 into midweek NY hours. Price has since rolled over, slipping back under the EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-40s. The 1.4110 week high capped the advance and 1.4100 psych now caps recovery attempts, while 1.40761 is holding as near-term support.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4057, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.41104, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4100 reopens the 1.41104 week high
Failure to hold 1.40761 exposes the 1.40570 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 1.40849
Pullback from week high, slipped below EMA20.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4000 week low through the NY session mid-week, tagging a 1.4110 week high before rounding over — the two-day rebound followed Monday's soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff shock. Price has since slipped below EMA(20) and back under the 1.4100 pivot, leaving the 1.4076 session low as the nearest floor while RSI cools from overbought.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4100 pivot reopens the 1.4110 week high
Loss of 1.4076 session low exposes the 1.4000 psych
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, pullback in progress · RSI 47 · price 1.40849
Higher highs into 1.4110, now easing off the week high.
USDCAD climbed off the 1.4003 week low toward 1.4110 through Tuesday–Wednesday, lifted by CAD-negative flow after Monday's soft June CPI and fresh US tariff headlines. Price has since slipped back below the H1 EMA(20) around 1.4094, consolidating near 1.4085 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. The 1.4110 area has capped the last attempts, while the 1.4076 session low still holds.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.41105, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
H1 close below 1.4076 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4094 EMA20 puts 1.4110 week high back in play
USDCAD rebounded off the 1.4000 area after Monday's soft Canadian CPI cemented a BoC pause, and fresh US tariff headlines drove a steady climb through the NY sessions to a week high at 1.41105. Price has since rolled into consolidation just under that high, dipping to EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling back toward 50. WTI holding near $86 is capping upside follow-through, keeping the pair pinned around the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.4076, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Hourly close above 1.41105 opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4076 confirms a lower-low
18:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling into consolidation · RSI 46 · price 1.40923
Range under 1.4110 after week's rally.
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4003 low toward 1.4110 through the week as soft Canadian CPI cemented a BoC pause and fresh US tariffs added a trade shock. That advance stalled at 1.4110, and price has since drifted into a 1.4076-1.4110 range, now pinning the EMA20 near 1.4098 with RSI back at 46. Firm WTI near $86 is cushioning the downside and keeping the pair boxed at the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this range read
H1 close above 1.4110 reopens the path to 1.4150
Loss of 1.4076 session low exposes 1.4000 psych
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 1.40919
Higher highs into week peak, now pulling back.
USDCAD climbed off the 1.4000 area early in the week and tagged 1.4110 on the USD safe-haven bid and Monday's soft CAD CPI, then rejected there and eased back toward 1.4090. Price now sits just below EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-40s, while the broader climb keeps it above EMA50. The 1.4076 swing low is the near-term pivot for the pullback.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4048, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4076 confirms a lower-low and deeper pullback
Reclaim of 1.4098 EMA20 puts the 1.4110 week high back in play
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.4005 low to tag 1.4110 into the NY session, lifted by soft Canadian June CPI and the fresh US tariff shock cementing the BoC pause. Momentum has since faded, with two rejections at the 1.4100 pivot and price now consolidating between 1.4076 and 1.4100. RSI(14) has cooled back toward the midline as the up-move loses pace.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4048, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4076 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support line
Reclaim of the 1.4100 pivot reopens the 1.4110 week high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher highs into 1.4110, now pulling back below EMA20.
USDCAD climbed steadily off Monday's 1.4008 week low to a 1.4110 high through the NY session, driven by the CAD-negative CPI miss and fresh US tariffs. Price has since rolled over, rejecting the 1.4110 area and slipping below EMA20 with RSI(14) easing back toward the mid-40s. The 1.4100 psych level and week high still cap, while 1.4076 marks the current session low.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4053, 1.4008
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4076 opens the path back to the 1.4053 weekly open
Reclaim of 1.4100 psych re-exposes the 1.4110 week high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ran off Tuesday's 1.40036 low to a week high at 1.41110 into the NY session, driven by soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, before easing back to the 1.4085 area where WTI near $86 is cushioning the Loonie. Price has slipped below EMA20 (~1.40970) with RSI cooling from overbought as the rally decelerated; the 1.4100 pivot capped two attempts. Support at the 1.40761 session low is the near-term marker, with the 1.40500 weekly open below it.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.4111
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.40970/1.41000 ema20 reopens the 1.41110 week high
Break of 1.40761 session low exposes the 1.40500 weekly open
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice this read
USDCAD climbed from this week's 1.4004 open to a week high at 1.4111 through yesterday's NY session, but has since rolled over and now trades below the EMA(20) near 1.4097. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought toward 44 as the pullback develops, with 1.40761 marking the current session low. Soft June Canadian CPI and the 50% Section 338 tariff news framed the underlying USD bid this week.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.4111
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low and threatens the weekly higher-low sequence
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4097 and a push through 1.4111 reopens the week high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice CAD and shift this read
USDCAD climbed steadily from Tuesday's 1.4003 low to a 1.4110 week high through Wednesday's NY session, driven by CAD-negative flows after soft June CPI and fresh US tariff headlines. Price stalled at the 1.4100/1.4110 confluence, made a lower high against firmer RSI and has since slipped back under EMA20 toward the 1.4076 session low. EMA50 near 1.4075 still supports the broader up-leg.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice CAD and shift this read
Hourly close back above 1.4100 pivot reasserts the up-leg toward 1.4110
USDCAD climbed steadily from Monday's ~1.4004 low to tag the 1.4110 week high into yesterday's NY session, riding CAD softness after the below-forecast June CPI and fresh US tariffs. Price has since eased under EMA(20), with RSI(14) cooling toward 43 after rejection at 1.4110, and is now consolidating around 1.4087 as $86 oil caps follow-through. The higher-low structure off Monday holds while 1.4076 is respected.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40553, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4076 swing low breaks this-week's higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
USDCAD rallied off Monday's CPI-driven low near 1.4004 through the week, tagging 1.4110 before supply capped the advance around the 1.4100 confluence. Price has since faded to 1.4087, slipping under EMA(20) but still holding above EMA(50) and the week's rising higher-lows, with $86 oil cushioning the CAD side. RSI(14) has cooled toward 45 as the pullback develops.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4076 breaks the week's rising higher-lows
Reclaim of 1.4100 reopens the 1.4110 week high
Canada Retail Sales and US Flash PMIs could shift this read
USDCAD rallied through the week from the 1.4000 area to a 1.4110 week high, lifted by safe-haven USD demand and soft Canada June CPI reinforcing the BoC pause. Price has since rolled over into a consolidation below 1.4110, slipping back toward the 1.4080 session low with RSI(14) cooling off and price sitting just under EMA20. The 1.4110 week high has capped the last several NY-session attempts.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4080 exposes the 1.4000 week low
USDCAD has rallied off the 1.4000 area since the weekend reopen, driven by soft June CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, while $86 oil kept the advance measured. The move stalled at 1.41105, tested twice into the NY session, and price is now consolidating near 1.4090 with RSI cooling back below 50 and slipping under EMA(20). Rising support off this-week's higher-lows still holds.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40036, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41105 clears the week high and opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.40806 breaks the rising support and exposes 1.4057
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 1.40882
Pullback from week high after impulse.
USDCAD ran from the 1.40028 week low up through the NY session into a 1.41110 high, the impulse fed by soft Canadian CPI and hawkish-Fed USD demand. Price has since rolled over below EMA(20) with RSI cooling toward 44, and demand has so far held the 1.40820 swing low. Firm crude remains the offsetting CAD support, capping attempts back at the 1.41000 handle.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4055, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.41000 reopens the 1.41110 week high
Loss of 1.40820 swing low confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.40550
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.4003 week low through the NY sessions to a week high at 1.4110, but momentum has stalled and price has slipped back below EMA20 near 1.4098. Firm crude has capped the advance while soft Canadian CPI and fresh tariff headlines kept the pair bid; RSI(14) has unwound from overbought back to neutral. The 1.4057 swing low is the first structural support on any deeper pullback.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4110 week high reopens the 1.4150 resist band
Loss of 1.4057 swing low points back toward the 1.4003 week low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 56 · price 1.4101
Higher highs into 1.4110, consolidating below.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's ~1.4030 open, extending through the NY session yesterday to a week high at 1.4110 as soft Canadian June CPI and the fresh 50% US tariff round weighed on CAD. Price now consolidates just under that high, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling from earlier highs into the mid-50s. Firm crude is capping the advance at the 1.4110 confluence hurdle.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 resist shelf
Failure to hold 1.4082 recent low exposes 1.4057 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US PMIs Fri could shift this read
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 56 · price 1.4101
Higher highs since Monday, consolidating under week high.
USDCAD has climbed steadily since Monday's session low near 1.4005, lifted by USD safe-haven flows and CAD weakness after soft June CPI and the fresh 50% tariff round. Price stalled at the 1.4110 week high through the NY session, with RSI(14) easing off overbought as the pair consolidates just above the 1.4100 confluence hurdle. Pullbacks have found EMA(20) intact.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4005, 1.3991
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4110 week high opens the path to the 1.4150 res shelf
Failure to hold 1.4082 swing low signals loss of this week's momentum
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US PMIs Fri could shift this read
Higher highs into 1.4110, pullback holding above rising trendline.
USDCAD has ground higher since Tuesday's 1.4003 low, extending through the London-NY sessions to a week high at 1.4110 as tariff-driven CAD weakness met steady USD haven demand. The advance stalled at the 1.4100/1.4110 confluence hurdle, with the latest pullback to 1.4082 finding a bid but leaving price back below EMA(20). RSI(14) has unwound from the highs to the mid-50s, flattening the momentum picture near resistance.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4076, 1.4056
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4110 week high opens the 1.4150 resistance shelf
Failure to hold 1.4082 session low exposes the rising trendline and EMA50
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD trended up from Tuesday's low near 1.4005 to a week high at 1.4110, where the 1.4100 confluence noted in the CAD read capped price twice this week. The pair has since eased back into the NY session, slipping under EMA(20) with RSI(14) rolling off toward the mid-40s. CAD remains pressured by the tariff shock and soft June CPI, but firm crude has kept the advance contained just below 1.4110.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4048, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.4110 reopens the 1.4150 resistance shelf
Failure to hold 1.4082 swing low exposes 1.4048 prior low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rallied off this week's 1.40028 low to stall just under the 1.41100 confluence hurdle, the level flagged in the CAD story after soft June CPI and fresh US tariffs. Price has since drifted back below EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling off overbought, holding above the 1.40820 swing low. The 1.41100 shelf has capped repeated attempts across the back half of the week.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4054, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41105 reopens the path to 1.41500
Loss of 1.40820 exposes 1.40540 then the 1.40028 week low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US PMIs Fri could shift this read
USDCAD has trended up since Monday's low near 1.4004, driven by soft June CPI and the Section 338 tariff shock weighing on CAD while firm oil capped the pace. The advance stalled at the 1.4110 week high through the NY session yesterday, and price has since slipped back under EMA(20) with RSI(14) fading off the highs as momentum cools. The 1.4082 session low is the first pullback marker holding the rising structure.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4057, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4082 session low would break the week's higher-low sequence
Sustained close above 1.41105 week high opens the 1.4150 res shelf
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the intraday read
USDCAD ground higher through the week from Tuesday's weekly low near 1.4006, with the dominant leg driven across the NY sessions as soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariffs weighed on CAD. Price stalled repeatedly at the 1.41105 week high, and the latest bar rejected back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling off its highs. Strong crude remains the offset capping the pair at the 1.4100 confluence.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4057, 1.4006
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.41105 needed to reaffirm the uptrend toward the 1.4150 shelf
Failure to hold 1.40821 session low opens the path back toward EMA50 and 1.40570
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
USDCAD rallied off Monday's 1.4003 low through the NY sessions to test 1.4110, a shelf that has now capped four attempts — consistent with strong oil offsetting the tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness. Momentum faded into the high with RSI(14) failing to confirm the marginal peaks, and the latest bar broke back below EMA(20) after a sharp drop to 1.4082. Price is now consolidating between the 1.4110 ceiling and the 1.4082 session low.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4066, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4110 reopens the week-high test
Loss of 1.4082 exposes the 1.4057 prior shelf
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the read
USDCAD ground higher through the week, clearing the 1.4100 handle into the NY session on broad USD safe-haven demand and CAD softness after Monday's cool CPI and the fresh Section 338 tariff shock. Price tagged a 1.4110 week high before drifting back to 1.40985, with pullbacks so far finding EMA20 near 1.4085. RSI(14) is easing off the highs, pointing to slowing momentum while the uptrend structure holds.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4054, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4085 EMA20 challenges the uptrend structure
Sustained trade above 1.4110 week high opens 1.4150 prior high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's low, consolidating below week high.
USDCAD has trended higher since Monday's ~1.4000 open, lifted by CAD-negative June CPI plus the Section 338 tariff shock while a Gulf-driven safe-haven USD bid added fuel. The pair pushed to a 1.4110 week high into the NY session yesterday and has since stalled, drifting back toward the 1.4100 pivot with RSI cooling off overbought. Pullbacks have held above the rising EMA20, keeping structure constructive.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.4110 week high opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold the 1.4100 pivot exposes the EMA20 near 1.4085
USDCAD has trended higher off Monday's 1.4003 low, driven by a broad USD safe-haven bid and a CAD-negative backdrop after soft June CPI and fresh US tariffs. The advance stalled into 1.41105 during the NY session, with the last several bars flat around the 1.4100 psych mark and RSI cooling from overbought. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 but the impulse has flattened at the week high.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4070, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41105 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold the 1.4100 psych level exposes 1.4070
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USD/CAD has climbed steadily since Monday's ~1.4000 low, driven by a firm safe-haven dollar and a CAD softened by June's cooler CPI and fresh US tariff headlines. Price holds above EMA20 with each pullback finding demand, printing a week high at 1.41105 before stalling into a tight consolidation around 1.4101. RSI(14) has eased off its rally peak but stays above 50, consistent with the range floor holding.
Support: 1.41007, 1.4065, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.41105 week high opens the path to 1.4150 resistance
Failure to hold the 1.4101 range floor exposes 1.4065 prior high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher for two sessions off the 1.4000 area, extending toward a 1.41110 week high as soft Canadian June CPI and the 50% US tariff announcement kept CAD on the back foot. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the upper half, but the last several bars have stalled into the 1.4100 confluence and flattened. Momentum is easing as the pair consolidates just under the week high.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.41110 opens the path to the 1.4150 next resist
Failure to hold 1.4100 confluence exposes the 1.4070 prior high then 1.4000
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, stalling below 1.4100 confluence.
USDCAD has trended up all week off the 1.4000 area, extending after Monday's soft Canadian CPI and the 50% US tariff announcement, with a firm USD backdrop adding fuel. Price pushed to a 1.4110 week high in the NY session before stalling into a tight consolidation just above the 1.4100 confluence, RSI(14) cycling in the 55–65 band on pullbacks. Both EMAs sit below price and shallow dips have held above 1.4065.
Support: 1.40988, 1.4065, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4100 exposes 1.4065 then the 1.4000 psych pivot
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, stalling under week high.
USDCAD has ground higher since Monday's low near 1.4000, with CAD on the back foot after the soft June CPI miss and the fresh 50% US tariff headlines. The 1.4100 confluence has been reclaimed and price is now consolidating just under the 1.4110 week high after a steady NY-session push. RSI(14) has cooled off its highs while price holds above EMA20, keeping the up-leg intact but stretched.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4110 week high opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of the 1.4100 round level puts EMA20 near 1.4085 back in play
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri could reshape this read
USDCAD has ground higher since the tariff-driven bounce off 1.4000 early week, with the dominant leg through Tuesday's NY session lifting the pair to a 1.4110 week high. Price now consolidates in a tight band just above the 1.4100 psych level as RSI(14) cools from overbought; the 1.4110 confluence has capped the last several attempts. Soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff overhang remain the backdrop keeping CAD on the back foot.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4062, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4110 week high opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4100 psych exposes 1.4062 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below 1.4110.
USDCAD has ground higher all week off the 1.4000 area, extending after soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff proclamation kept CAD on the back foot. The dominant leg ran through the NY session, tagging a 1.4110 week high before stalling; price now consolidates just above the 1.4100 psych level with RSI cycling in the mid-50s. Pullbacks have held above the rising EMA20 near 1.4090.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4090, 1.4065
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 confluence
Loss of 1.4090 ema20 and 1.4100 psych would break the higher-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD has climbed steadily since the 1.40028 weekly low, extending as soft June CPI and the 50% US tariff announcement kept CAD on the back foot. The pair pushed into the 1.41105 week high through the NY session and is now consolidating just below it, with RSI(14) easing back from overbought as momentum flattens. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50, but the 1.41000 psych level and week high are the near-term boundaries.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40553, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.41105 opens the path to the 1.41500 confluence
Failure to hold 1.41000 psych level exposes the 1.40553 higher low
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher all week off the 1.4003 low, clearing the 1.4100 confluence as soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff announcement kept CAD on the back foot. Price is holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the upper half; the run stalled at the 1.4110 week high in the last NY session and has since flattened into a tight consolidation. The breakout of 1.4100 is now being retested from above.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4100 negates the breakout and reopens 1.4085 ema20
H1 close above 1.4110 week high extends the move toward 1.4150
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near range top · RSI 58 · price 1.41037
Higher highs and higher lows, stalling below week high.
USDCAD has ground higher off the 1.4000 area all week, extending after Monday's soft Canadian CPI miss and the announced 50% US tariffs kept CAD on the back foot. Price is now flattening just under the 1.4110 week high, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-65 band on pullbacks. The 1.4100 psych level has flipped from resistance to a shelf under current price.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read materially
H1 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 next resist
Loss of the 1.4075 ema20 and 1.4100 psych would signal the week's higher-low sequence stalling
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 61 · price 1.41017
Higher highs, higher lows since Tuesday.
USDCAD has trended up since Tuesday's session, recovering off the 1.4003 week low toward 1.4111 as a firm safe-haven USD and CAD's soft June CPI plus fresh 50% US tariff drag weighed on the Loonie. Price cleared the 1.4100 confluence flagged this week and is holding above it, with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-68 band on each pullback and price riding above EMA20/EMA50. Momentum has flattened near 1.4110 into thin late hours after the NY session grind higher.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
A clean hourly hold above 1.4110 opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4100 puts the prior range and 1.4075 EMA20 back in play
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the next macro test — a miss could extend the move, a beat could pressure 1.4100
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 64 · price 1.41017
Higher highs, higher lows; broke 1.4100.
USDCAD has trended higher since the mid-week dip near 1.4000, with CAD pressured by the soft June CPI miss and the fresh 50% US tariff headline while USD held a firm haven bid. Price cleared the 1.4100 confluence into the NY session and is consolidating just below the 1.41105 week high, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 on every pullback. RSI(14) is elevated near 63 but not yet stretched, keeping momentum intact.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4065, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.41105 opens the path toward the 1.4150 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4100 on a retest would neutralise the breakout
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT (f/c +1.0%) could materially shift this read
USDCAD has ground higher for a second day off the 1.4000 weekly low, with soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff headline keeping CAD offered. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 and has now cleared the 1.4100 confluence that capped earlier attempts, printing a week high at 1.4110 in the NY session. RSI(14) near 68 shows momentum stretched but not yet extreme after the run.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4057, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.4110
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4100 on a close reverts to a range read above 1.4000
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC and US Flash PMIs Fri could shift this read
Sustained trade above 1.4110 week high extends the breakout
USDCAD has climbed steadily since the weekly open, extending a second-day advance driven by soft Canadian CPI and the new US tariff headline; the move cleared the 1.4100 confluence and printed a week high at 1.4110. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 66 but flattening as the last few bars stall in a tight range below 1.4110. Pullbacks this week have found EMA20 around 1.4085, keeping the intraday structure constructive.