21:04 UTC
Sept uptrend stalled, correcting lower · RSI 49 · price 1.41015
Triple top near 1.4300; 1.4200 floor lost, pulling back to EMA(50).
The Sept 8 base at 1.3759 drove a five-week rally that stalled in a triple top near 1.4300 on Oct 5, 9 and 14. The reversal came as Macklem's remarks swung BoC pricing toward an October hike and oil held near five-month highs. Price has since lost the 1.4200 range floor and slipped under EMA(20) near 1.4149, and Monday's soft Canadian CPI only briefly lifted it above 1.4100. It now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Sept rally, with EMA(50) at 1.4085 and Monday's swing low at 1.4070 just beneath, while RSI has cooled to the high-40s from the high-60s.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4070, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200, 1.4300
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.4070 swing low and EMA(50) opens the 50% Sept rally fib near 1.4030 and the july low at 1.4003
- Recovery back above EMA(20) and the 1.4200 range floor would neutralise the triple top breakdown
- Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Fri Oct 23, then the BoC decision Oct 28 and FOMC next week, could materially shift this read
- An oil retreat on US-Iran deal headlines removes CAD's main prop and challenges the pullback structure