Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; tight base above week low.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Thursday. It gapped lower into the weekly open, sold off into Monday's London open and extended to a week low at 1.4032 during NY hours Tuesday, as softer US yields, weak US housing data and firm oil kept CAD bid. Monday's CPI bounce to the monday high near 1.4112 was faded, and after London close Tuesday price has compressed into a 1.4043–1.4065 consolidation, capped at EMA(20) and the 38.2% retracement of that drop, with RSI(14) back near 46 from roughly 28 at the low.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4088, 1.4112
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(50) near 1.4088 and the falling trendline from Thursday's high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4032 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the monday high at 1.4112 (weekly open zone) would invalidate the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs Fri, could materially shift this read; US-Iran and oil headlines remain the CAD swing factor
Lower highs all week; tight base above 1.4032 low.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Thursday, opening the week below Friday's 1.4136 close at a 1.4114 weekly open. The London opens on Monday and Tuesday delivered the main legs lower, and a softer USD on US-Iran deal hopes plus BoC hike bets carried price to a 1.4032 week low early in Tuesday's NY session. Monday's spike to 1.4112 on the soft Canadian CPI print faded within hours. Since the low, price has compressed in a 1.4043–1.4064 band just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering to the high 40s and ATR contracting.
Support: 1.40319, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.40779, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 closes above EMA(20) near 1.4064 and the 1.4078 fib 23.6 would mark the first higher high since the week low
Failure to hold the 1.4032 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
The lower-highs trendline sits near 1.4082; a break above it shifts the read from downtrend to range below the 1.4114 weekly open
US-Iran headlines moving WTI could shift this read quickly given CAD is trading as an oil proxy
Thu US jobless claims, then Fri Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, small base above 1.4032.
USD/CAD has kept a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows across the window, sliding from 1.4239 to a 1.4032 week low early in NY hours today. The week's legs came in the London sessions as a softer USD, firm oil and BoC hike pricing weighed, and Monday's CPI-miss bounce to the 38.2% fib at 1.4111, near the weekly open, faded within hours. Since the low, price has based in a tight band with NY lows at 1.4043 holding, while RSI(14) has recovered to ~39 from sub-25 and the bounce stalled at EMA(20) near 1.4064.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4111, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 at 1.4064 and the lower-highs line near 1.4086 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold ny lows at 1.4043 and the 1.4032 week low confirms another lower-low and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
A recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.4111 and the 1.4134 week high would turn the read corrective rather than trending
US-Iran deal headlines moving oil, Thu US jobless claims and Fri Canada Retail Sales / US PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since Thursday; tight range 1.4043–1.4064 after new low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.4239 high. Each leg lower started at the London open, and Monday opened with a gap down. Monday's soft Canada CPI produced only a brief spike to the 1.4112 cpi high, which faded. Tuesday's NY-session Pending Home Sales miss, together with oil and yields easing on Iran-deal reports, pushed price to a week low of 1.4032. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4043–1.4064 range just under the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4065, where the ema20 meets the lower-highs trendline, breaks the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 1.4112 cpi high (also the 38.2% Thu-Tue fib) points to a deeper correction toward the 1.4134 monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4032 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
US-Iran deal headlines and oil moves could shift the CAD side abruptly
Thu US Jobless Claims, then Fri Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, are the next data risks
Lower highs since Sunday open; basing 1.4032–1.4065 below ema20.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4113 week open. Both legs lower came around the London open on Monday and Tuesday, and the post-CPI bounce to 1.4112 stalled near the 38.2% of the week fib. A soft USD on the -7.3% Pending Home Sales miss, together with CAD firmness on BoC hike bets, carried price to a 1.4032 week low during NY hours. Since then a ny base has formed around 1.4043, with price capped just under ema20 near 1.4065 and RSI(14) lifting from the low 30s to around 37.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4070, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 at 1.4065 and the 1.4070 monday low would end the run of lower highs and turn the read toward a deeper retracement
Failure to hold the 1.4043 ny base and the 1.4032 week low extends the downtrend
The lower-highs trendline from the week high sits near 1.4087; a move back through it and toward the week open at 1.4113 changes the structure
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing into EMA(20) · RSI 43 · price 1.40612
Lower highs and lower lows since the window open; weekly gap down; corrective NY bounce off 1.4032.
H1 has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window. The week opened on a gap down near the 1.4112 weekly open, and Monday's CPI-miss spike failed just below it to set another lower high. Tuesday extended this week's decline in two steps: first through the Monday low into the London open, then to the 1.4032 Tuesday low around the US housing data, with firm oil and BoC hike pricing keeping CAD bid. The NY-hours bounce has lifted RSI(14) to about 43 and pushed price up to EMA(20) near 1.4066, just under the Monday low.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4070 Monday low and EMA(20) would be the first reclaim since Tuesday's London open
A break of the lower-high line near 1.4090, then the 1.4112 weekly open, would challenge the downtrend read, with the 1.4134 week high above
Failure to hold the 1.4032 Tuesday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
US-Iran deal headlines and the oil reaction are live risk at any hour and could quickly shift CAD demand
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; tight base above 1.4032.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs along a descending trendline from Thursday's 1.4222 high. That line capped Sunday's 1.4134 open spike and Monday's CPI-driven bounce to 1.4112, keeping price below the weekly open. Tuesday's London session broke the 1.4070 Monday low, and NY extended to a 1.4032 week low after weak US housing data, with Brent strength and BoC-hike repricing keeping CAD bid. Price sits below both EMAs, and the last six bars have compressed between the week low and today's 1.4060 NY high, with RSI(14) near 33, short of oversold.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4070, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4070 monday low and the 50% fib near 1.4083 would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4032 week low exposes the 1.4000 psych level
Descending trendline near 1.4088 and the weekly open at 1.4113 remain the structural cap; a close above both breaks the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales and US S&P Global PMIs on Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read; Brent/Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and compressing · RSI 26 · price 1.4047
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; closes stalling just above the week low.
USDCAD has carved lower highs since Thursday and extended lower this week from the 1.4113 weekly open. Monday's bounce on the Canadian CPI release stalled at 1.4112, and Tuesday's London-to-NY leg broke Monday's 1.4070 low as soft US housing data and an oil-supported CAD drove a 1.4032 week low. Price holds below EMA(20) near 1.4068, which coincides with the 38.2% week fib of the 1.4134–1.4032 leg, while RSI(14) sits near 26 and hourly closes are compressing around 1.4050 despite lower wicks.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4113, 1.4134
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4032 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
A close back above EMA(20) and the 38.2% week fib near 1.4070 would mark the first corrective bounce of the week; the lower highs line sits near 1.4090
A move back through the 1.4113 weekly open and the 1.4134 week high would negate this week's downtrend structure
US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales on Fri Oct 23 (12:30/13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; prior-day low at 1.4070 broken.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs across the window, sliding from 1.4278 on Wednesday to a fresh week low at 1.4032 in the first hours of NY today, as soft US housing data and five-month-high Brent extended the CAD bid. Monday's CPI-driven spike to 1.4112 stalled under the weekly open, and London drove today's leg through the prior-day low at 1.4070; price sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 28, oversold. Lower wicks into 1.4032–1.4040 during NY hours show demand stepping in, while the lower-highs trendline and the fib 23.6 of the week decline at 1.4090 cap above.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4090, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the prior-day low at 1.4070 and EMA(20) would ease the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the week low at 1.4032 exposes the 1.4000 round number
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the weekly open at 1.4113 would neutralise the week's downtrend structure
Thu US jobless claims and Fri US PMIs / Canada Retail Sales could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new week lows · RSI 28 · price 1.40479
Lower highs and lower lows; Monday's 1.4070–1.4112 range broken lower.
The week opened on a gap lower near 1.4114. Monday's CPI-driven spike to the 1.4112 cpi high was capped beneath the 1.4134 weekly high and faded, keeping the lower-highs trendline intact since last Thursday. Tuesday's London open broke the 1.4070 monday low, and price extended into NY hours to a 1.4032 week low as firm Brent and a softer USD weighed. RSI(14) is near 28 and price is below both EMAs, with lower wicks on the last NY bars showing demand stepping in near the week low.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4070 monday low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4032 week low exposes the 1.4000 round number
A close above the lower-highs trendline near 1.4090, the fib 23.6%, and the 1.4112 cpi high would break the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Brent / Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver behind this leg
Lower highs and lower lows; Monday low broken in London.
USDCAD has carved lower highs since Thursday's 1.4222 post-data spike. It gapped below Friday's 1.4136 prior close, then broke Monday's 1.4070 low at Tuesday's London open as Brent's five-month high and a softer dollar outweighed Monday's CPI miss, whose bounce stalled at the 1.4113 weekly open. EMA(20), now near 1.4076, has capped each rebound, and RSI(14) sits near 32 after a sub-30 dip, with the wick to the 1.4038 week low drawing some demand ahead of the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4113, 1.4136
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4070 Monday low and EMA(20) near 1.4076 would turn Tuesday's break into a false break
A rebound beyond the 50% retracement of the week's drop (~1.4086) would weaken the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4038 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4113 weekly open breaks the lower-high structure in place since Thursday
Oil reversal on Hormuz de-escalation headlines, Thursday's US claims, or Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak; new day low in London.
USD/CAD has stepped lower all window from Wednesday's 1.4299 high, with the selloff now about 255 pips. Monday's soft Canadian CPI lifted price in the release bar, but the pop was rejected at the weekly open near 1.4113. London-session legs drove the declines on Monday and again today, the latest to a day low at 1.4045, as 5-month-high Brent and a softer USD into an expected Fed pause kept CAD bid. Price sits below EMA20, and the descending trendline has capped every bounce; RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not yet in oversold territory.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4073, 1.4113, 1.4134
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the day low at 1.4045 and the 1.4040 zone exposes the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above ema20 and the descending trendline near 1.4075-1.4080 would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.4113 and the week high at 1.4134 invalidates the downtrend read
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC today, then Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.40525
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's NY-session peak at 1.4299. Thursday's hot US data failed to lift it, and Tuesday's Asia-to-London slide to a 1.4046 session low tracked the WTI jump on Iran's Bab al-Mandeb threat. Monday's post-CPI bounce was rejected twice near 1.4112, just under the 1.4113 week open, and price now sits below the EMA(20) near 1.4080 and the broken Monday low at 1.4070. RSI(14) is around 23, and the lower-high trendline from Thursday's 1.4222 high, now near 1.4094, has capped each rebound along the 1.4299–1.4046 decline.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4080, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4070 Monday low and the EMA(20) would mark Tuesday's break as a false break
Reclaim of the lower-high trendline and the 1.4113 week open (23.6% fib of the decline) breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.4046 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) today could shift this read
WTI above $102.11 or Friday's Canada Retail Sales could also shift this read
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.40558
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4300 rejection.
Since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4300, the pair has printed a steady run of lower highs. Monday's bounce on the soft Canadian CPI stalled at 1.4112, just under the week open and the 23.6% fib of the drop. The London open today extended the slide to a fresh day low at 1.4053, through the monday low at 1.4070, as Hormuz-driven oil gains and a softer USD lifted CAD. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.4083 and EMA(50) near 1.4112, with RSI(14) at 24 in oversold territory but no divergence against Monday's low.
Support: 1.4053, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4083, 1.4113
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the monday low at 1.4070 and the ema20 near 1.4083 would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
A close above the week open at 1.4113 and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read on this timeframe
Failure to hold the day low at 1.4053 leaves the 1.4000 round number as the next reference
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC today, and Canada Retail Sales on Friday at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A higher low with RSI(14) back above 30 would mark the first momentum divergence after the 1.4300 drop
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extended · RSI 25 · price 1.40569
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4300 rejection; Monday low broken.
USD/CAD has printed a steady run of lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4300. Monday's bounce on the soft Canadian CPI stalled at the weekly open near 1.4113, and EMA(20) has capped each recovery since. The London open drove today's leg through Monday's low at 1.4070 to a 1.4053 session low, as firmer oil and a softer USD lifted CAD, leaving RSI(14) oversold near 25 and price stretched below EMA(20) at 1.4085.
Support: 1.4053, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4085, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4070 Monday low would mark today's break as a false break
Sustained trade below the 1.4053 session low opens the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4113 weekly open and the lower-high trendline would break the week's lower-high sequence (23.6% fib of the 1.4300 decline sits there)
US housing data today 12:15–14:00 UTC and Friday's Canada Retail Sales / US PMIs could materially shift this read
Oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the dominant CAD driver; a crude retracement would test the downtrend
The wed-mon decline from Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection has printed lower highs every day, and Sunday's open gapped beneath Friday's prior close at 1.4136 without filling it. Monday's soft Canadian CPI bounced price from the 1.4070 week low to the 1.4112 cpi high, near the week open, but supply capped it there. Through Asia and into the London open price has slipped back under the ema20 to retest the week low as oil gains on Hormuz disruption support CAD. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s, with no bullish divergence visible yet.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4112, 1.4136
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4070 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4112 cpi high and week open breaks the lower highs line and points back to the 1.4136 prior close gap
US Housing Starts and Permits at 12:30 UTC today could shift the NY session read
Canada Retail Sales and US S&P PMIs on Friday are the week's main risk for this structure
USDCAD has carved lower highs every session since the 1.4299 peak. Oil strength and a soft USD drove a fourth daily drop, led by Monday's early-London break under 1.4100 and a steady Asian-session grind on Tuesday. Monday's CPI-miss spike was rejected just under the weekly open at 1.4113, and price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.4090, pressing the Monday low at 1.4070, with RSI(14) at 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4050, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.41135, 1.41338
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.4070 confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.4050 round number, then the 1.4000 big figure
Recovery above the weekly open at 1.4113 and the lower highs trendline would break the sequence; the week high at 1.4134 is the next cap
Pullbacks stalling at EMA(20) near 1.4090 keep the downtrend structure intact
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC today, then Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, could shift this read
Price holding near the week decline lows keeps the 38.2% fib near 1.4158 out of reach
Lower highs and lower lows from Wednesday's 1.4299 high; Monday high capped the bounce.
USDCAD has made lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299. The week opened with a gap below Friday's close, leaving the 1.4136 gap fill untested, and the London open on Monday pushed price to a week low at 1.4070. Monday's soft Canadian CPI briefly lifted the pair to the 1.4112 Monday high, which marks the latest lower high. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 during the Asia session, with oil strength on Hormuz disruption and a soft USD keeping CAD supported, and RSI(14) sits near 38 without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.4112, 1.4136
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4112 Monday high would break the lower-high trendline and put the 1.4136 gap fill in play
Failure to hold the 1.4070 week low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Holding below the ema20 near 1.4097 keeps pullbacks capped inside the downtrend
US housing data at 12:30 UTC today, then Fri Oct 23 Canada retail sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC), could materially shift this read
Oil reversing on Hormuz de-escalation headlines would remove CAD's main support
Lower highs every session since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak; Monday low 1.4070 being retested.
USDCAD has carved out lower highs every session since Wednesday's 1.4299 spike, with the decline extending through Friday's NY session. The pair then gapped lower at Monday's open and London took out 1.4100 to a 1.4070 week low. The Canada CPI miss lifted it back to 1.4112, just under the weekly open, but that rebound stalled along the falling trendline. Asia session has slipped back under EMA(20) to retest the week low, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below EMA(50), as oil strength from Hormuz disruption and a softer USD keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4050, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4099, 1.4113, 1.4136
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4113 weekly open and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.4136 prior close
Failure to hold the 1.4070 week low confirms a fresh lower-low, opening the 1.4050 area and then the 1.4000 round number
Rebounds stalling at EMA(20) near 1.4099 keep the downtrend structure intact
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30Z today, then Friday's US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales, could materially shift this read
Oil reversal on Hormuz de-escalation headlines would remove CAD's main prop
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce capped at weekly open · RSI 41 · price 1.40876
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak; price pressing back toward the week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299. Sunday's open gapped below the 1.4136 prior close, and a London-session leg on Monday reached the 1.4070 week low as oil strength and a softer USD lifted CAD. Monday's soft Canadian CPI drove a bounce at the NY open that stalled at the 1.4113 weekly open, a level that capped price again into Asia; price now sits back under EMA(20) near 1.4097 with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.41135, 1.41364
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4113 weekly open would break the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4070 week low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 1.4050 round number next
The 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Monday drop near 1.4124 sits just above the weekly open; acceptance there would bring the 1.4136 prior close into view
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30Z today, and Friday's US PMIs and Canada retail sales, could materially shift this read
A reversal lower in crude on Hormuz headlines would remove CAD's main support and could change the read
Lower highs since Wednesday, tight range below EMA20.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4299, extended the slide through Friday and opened Monday with a gap of about 23 pips lower; the London open drove the leg to the 1.4070 Monday low. The soft Canadian CPI miss lifted the pair back toward 1.4112, where supply capped it at the lower-highs trendline from Thursday's 1.4222 high, just under the weekly open and still beneath the 23.6% level of the Wednesday–Monday drop near 1.4124. Price now sits just below EMA(20) at about 1.4103 in a narrow Asian range above the 1.4089 Asian low, with RSI(14) flat at 44.
Support: 1.4089, 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4103, 1.4113, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4113 weekly open breaks the sequence of lower highs; the Monday high at 1.4134 is the next cap
Failure to hold 1.4089 Asian low exposes the 1.4070 Monday low; a break there extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today; Friday's US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales are the larger risks to this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 top; tight 1.4070–1.4112 box.
Wednesday's US CPI spike to 1.4299 reversed hard. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, with Friday's NY session and Monday's London open driving the leg to the 1.4070 monday low. The soft Canada CPI miss lifted price to a 1.4112 cpi high, but late-NY attempts stalled three times at that level, which sits on the lower-highs trendline. Asia has slipped back to the 1.4089 asia low, under a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4105, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.4089, 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4112 cpi high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and opens the friday low at 1.4134 and the weekend gap
Failure to hold 1.4070 monday low confirms a fresh lower-low, with 1.4050 psych the next reference
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today could test the 1.4089–1.4112 box
Canada retail sales and US PMIs on Friday are the larger catalysts for this read
Lower highs since 1.4299; tight post-CPI range 1.4070–1.4112.
USDCAD has made a run of lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4299, and the week opened with a gap below Friday's 1.4136 close. The early-London slide on Monday carried the pair to a 1.4070 week low before the soft Canada September CPI (3.1% vs 3.2%) popped it back above psych 1.4100 in the NY session. Since then the pair has been capped at the 1.4112 cpi high and is drifting in a narrow Asia range just under the flattening ema20 near 1.4106, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 and a higher low at 1.4083 so far intact.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4134 monday high (also Friday's low) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Sustained trade back below psych 1.4100 and the 1.4083 higher low reopens the 1.4070 week low
Failure to hold the 1.4070 week low extends the downtrend from 1.4299
Renewed AI-led equity weakness or a USD data miss could shift this read; Tue US housing starts and permits are the next scheduled USD inputs
Fri Oct 23 Canada retail sales and US PMIs are the week's main event risk for the 1.4100 pivot