Lower highs since Sunday open, basing 1.4032–1.4082.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Sunday's 1.4114 open. Monday's soft Canadian CPI briefly lifted the pair to the 1.4112 cpi high before the fade resumed, with crude strength and roughly 80% BoC hike pricing keeping CAD firm. Tuesday's NY-session push set the 1.4032 week low, and Wednesday's 1.4038 wed low held just above it. Wednesday's NY-open bounce met rejection at the 1.4082 wed high, close to the 50% retracement of the week drop fib. Price now sits under the ema20 near 1.4053, with RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s and ATR compressing.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4082, 1.4112
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.4030 one-month low
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.4053 and then the 1.4082 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Acceptance above the 1.4112 cpi high would undo the week's downtrend structure
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs Fri 12:30–13:45 UTC are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs from Friday; Tue-Wed basing in a 1.4032-1.4082 band.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.4198 high. The pair gapped below the 1.4113 week open on Sunday, and Monday's CPI-miss spike to 1.4112 faded. CAD has stayed firm on oil at five-month highs and BoC hike pricing, and Tuesday's NY session set the week low at 1.4032 after the soft US housing data. Wednesday formed a higher low at 1.4038, but the NY-session push met rejection at 1.4082, short of the 38.2% retracement of the drop. Price now sits back below EMA(20) at 1.4053 with RSI(14) flat near 46.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40532, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4032 week low breaks the Tue-Wed base and extends the lower-high sequence
Close above the 1.4082 wed high and the lower-high trendline challenges the downtrend read and opens the 1.4113 week open
Failure to reclaim EMA(20) at 1.4053 keeps the higher low at 1.4038 under pressure
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 200K), then Fri Canada retail sales and US flash PMIs, could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain a driver of the CAD leg
Lower highs since Monday; lows compressing in a 1.4032–1.4082 base.
USDCAD has stepped lower from the 1.4114 weekly open after a gap down. The dominant leg came Tuesday from London into NY, when the US housing miss printed the week low at 1.4032 on firm oil and BoC hike pricing. Wednesday's NY-open pop to the 1.4082 Wednesday high stalled just under the 50% retracement of the week's drop and was rejected, putting price back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 43. Lower highs persist, while the Wednesday low at 1.4038 and the week low are compressing a tight base.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40546, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low breaks the higher-lows base and confirms a lower-low through the 1.4030 one-month low
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 1.4082 wed high would break the lower-highs line and re-open the 1.4114 weekly open
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims, then Fri Canada retail sales and US flash PMIs, could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main driver of the CAD leg
Lower highs since Monday, compressing above 1.4032.
USDCAD has slid from Monday's 1.4134 Asia high. Monday's CPI-driven spike to 1.4112 faded back below the week open, and Tuesday's London-to-NY leg printed the 1.4032 week low as firm oil and soft US housing data weighed. Wednesday's NY pop to the 1.4082 wed high stalled at the 50% level of the Monday-Tuesday fib and reversed in the hour of the larger-than-expected EIA crude draw, leaving the lower-high trendline intact. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 1.4055 with RSI(14) at 44, compressing between the 1.4038 wed low and the week low.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low (one-month low area) extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4082 wed high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 1.4113 week open back in view
Price holding below the ema20 near 1.4055 keeps the lower-high structure intact
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, then Canada retail sales and US flash PMIs Fri, could shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor for CAD
Lower highs since Monday; compressing in a 1.4032–1.4082 range.
USDCAD opened the week below Friday's 1.4136 close and has printed lower highs since, with the Monday London-open drop and Tuesday's NY-session slide to the 1.4032 week low doing most of the work as oil strength and BoC hike pricing kept CAD firm. Monday's soft Canada CPI lifted the pair only briefly to the 1.4112 cpi high, and Wednesday's NY spike met rejection at the 61.8% fib of that leg near 1.4082 before fading back below EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price is now holding just above the 1.4038 wed low with RSI(14) near 45, compressing in a tight range above the one-month low.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low confirms a fresh lower-low through the 1.4030 Fib support
Recovery through 1.4082 (61.8% fib) and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read, exposing the 1.4112 cpi high and 1.4134 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4038 wed low turns the range into a retest of the week low
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fri flash PMIs plus Canada retail sales could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 1.4112; Wednesday's spike rejected at 61.8% fib, price back below ema20 near week low.
USDCAD opened the week at 1.4113 after a Sunday gap lower. Monday's CPI-miss spike to the same area faded, and the dominant leg came from London into the NY open on Tuesday, down to the 1.4032 week low, as oil strength and BoC hike pricing kept CAD firm against a soft USD. Wednesday's NY spike stalled at 1.4082, the 61.8% fib of the Monday-high-to-Tuesday-low leg. Price has since slipped back below ema20 (~1.4057) toward the wed low at 1.4038, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4082, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
H1 close above 1.4082 (61.8% fib and lower-highs trendline) breaks the lower-high structure
A hold of the wed low after a higher low versus Tuesday would point to the decline stalling
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, then US flash PMIs and Canadian retail sales Fri, could materially shift this read
Weekly open at 1.4113 marks the top of this week's structure
Lower highs from Friday, basing in a 1.4032–1.4082 band.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs from Friday's 1.4198 peak. Monday's spike to 1.4112 on the soft Canada CPI faded, and Tuesday's London-to-NY slide set the week low at 1.4032. The last two sessions have compressed into a 1.4032–1.4082 band: Wednesday's NY-open push to the 1.4082 Wednesday high met rejection near EMA(50) as the larger EIA crude draw lifted oil, while the Wed low at 1.4038 held above the week low, leaving price pinned to EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low confirms a fresh lower-low through the one-month low area
Close above the 1.4082 Wednesday high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 38.2% decline retrace near 1.4096 and the 1.4113 weekly open in view
A second hold at the Wed low 1.4038 keeps a higher low inside the band
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims, then Fri Canada retail sales and US flash PMIs, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4134; higher low at 1.4038 vs 1.4032 week low.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's close and printed its week high at 1.4134 on Sunday. Monday's soft Canadian CPI bounce stalled at the 1.4112 monday high, and Tuesday's London leg ran to the 1.4032 week low as firm oil and BoC hike pricing supported CAD. Wednesday's dip held a higher low at 1.4038, and the NY-session spike was rejected at 1.4082, just under the 50% fib of the week's decline. Price sits back above EMA(20) near 1.4059 but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 52, so the sequence of lower highs is still intact.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4082 50% fib and the lower highs trendline breaks the week's sequence and opens the 1.4112 monday high
Loss of the 1.4038 higher low and a close below the 1.4032 week low (digest 1.4030 fib support) extends the downtrend and negates the double bottom
Holding EMA(20) at 1.4059 on pullbacks keeps the double bottom base intact; closes back below it return price to the 1.4038–1.4032 floor
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fri Canada Retail Sales / US flash PMIs could materially shift this read; Meta earnings after the US close tonight are a USD risk
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing at the week low · RSI 63 · price 1.40759
Lower highs since Monday; double bottom 1.4032/1.4038 with neckline break.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Monday's weekly open near 1.4112. The spike to 1.4111 on the soft Canadian CPI faded, and Tuesday's London-to-NY slide, helped by weak US housing data, set the week low at 1.4032, just above the 1.4030 one-month low flagged in the macro read. Wednesday's London dip held a higher low at 1.4038, and the first hour of NY lifted price through the 1.4067 neckline and the lower-high line, completing a small double bottom with RSI(14) near 63. Price is now pressing EMA(50) near 1.4077, below the 38.2% retrace of the week decline at 1.4098.
Support: 1.4067, 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4077, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4067 neckline negates the double-bottom breakout and returns price to the 1.4032–1.4067 base
Acceptance above EMA(50) at 1.4077 and a close through the 1.4112 weekly open would mark the first higher high since Monday, with the monday high at 1.4134 next
Failure at the 1.4038 higher low and a break of the 1.4032 week low confirms the downtrend is resuming
Meta Q3 earnings later today and oil/Hormuz headlines could shift USD and CAD tone
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fri 12:30 UTC Canadian retail sales are the next scheduled risks to this read
Lower highs from 1.4206; tight 1.4032–1.4067 compression since Tuesday's low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.4206 peak. Monday's soft Canadian CPI lifted price only briefly to the 1.4112 cpi high, and London-led selling on Tuesday, with oil firm and the USD soft, then carried it to a 1.4032 week low near the one-month low. Since then price has compressed in a roughly 35-pip band beneath the lower-highs line and EMA(20) near 1.4057, with RSI(14) near 41. Wednesday's London dip held at the 1.4038 wed low, just above the week low.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4067, 1.4112
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low (one-month low) extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4057 and the 1.4067 wed high would break the lower-highs line and end the compression
Close back above the 1.4112 cpi high would undo the post-CPI downtrend structure
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines plus Meta earnings tonight could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow Thursday
Lower highs since Monday; tight range 1.4038-1.4067 above week low.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.4134 high, which came just after the 1.4114 weekly open. The main legs ran from the London open on Monday and from Tuesday's Asia session into the NY open, ending at the 1.4032 week low. Firm crude and BoC hike repricing underpinned CAD, while soft US housing data weighed on the dollar. Since then price has compressed beneath the range top at 1.4067, stalling below the 38.2% fib of the Mon-Tue drop. London's dip to a 1.4038 session low today put price back under EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067, 1.4114
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low confirms a lower-low and ends the post-Tuesday consolidation
Close above the 1.4067 range top and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read; weekly open at 1.4114 is the next reference
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Fri Oct 23 (12:30/13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC
US-Iran headlines moving crude remain the swing driver for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday, retesting week low.
USDCAD has carved lower highs since Thursday. The Monday CPI-miss spike to 1.4112 faded back under the weekly open, and Tuesday's NY-session slide set a week low at 1.4032 as crude stayed bid and BoC hike pricing firmed. The rebound stalled at 1.4067, the bounce high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the week's decline. Wednesday's London session has pushed price back under the EMA(20) toward the week low, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4067, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the ema20 and 1.4067 bounce high would break the lower highs trendline and stall the downtrend read
A move back above the 1.4113 weekly open would negate the week's decline structure
US claims Thu, then Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs Fri 12:30–13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines moving crude could reverse CAD strength independent of data
Lower highs each session since Thursday; tight consolidation 1.4049–1.4067 after Tuesday's low.
USD/CAD has shed roughly 190 pips from Thursday's 1.4222 high and gapped lower into the 1.4113 weekly open. The decisive legs came at the London open on Monday and Tuesday, with CAD underpinned by firm oil and BoC hike pricing; Monday's soft Canadian CPI spike to 1.4112 faded beneath the weekly open. Tuesday's NY-session week low at 1.4032 drew a bounce that stalled at the 1.4067 Asian high, short of the 23.6% retracement of the week decline near 1.4077. London has since pushed price back below EMA(20) to a fresh session low at 1.4049, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4067, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low extends the lower-low sequence through the 1.4030 one-month low
Failure to hold the 1.4049 session low breaks the floor of the post-Tuesday consolidation
Recovery above ema20 and the 1.4067 asian high, then the lower highs trendline near 1.4073, would mark the first higher high since Thursday
A return to the 1.4113 weekly open would negate the week's lower-high structure
Thu jobless claims, Fri US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) could reprice the Fed/BoC legs; oil and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; 35-pip range 1.4032–1.4067 since Tuesday NY.
The selling began at Thursday's 1.4222 high. It continued through a weekend gap to a 1.4114 weekly open, and Monday's soft Canadian CPI spike to the 1.4112 cpi high was sold in the NY session. Tuesday's London-to-NY leg then reached the 1.4032 week low as CAD drew support from oil strength and hawkish BoC repricing. Since then price has compressed between that low and the 1.4067 range top, and early London has slipped back below the ema20 to a 1.4050 london low. Rallies remain under the lower highs trendline and the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday–Tuesday drop near 1.4077.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4067, 1.4112
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.4000 round number the next reference
H1 close above the 1.4067 range top and the lower highs trendline (~1.4072) undermines the downtrend read; the 1.4112 cpi high is then the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.4050 london low keeps the ema20 capping the consolidation
Oil swings on US-Iran headlines, and Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since Monday open; tight range under flat EMA20.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's 1.4136 close, and every rally since has set a lower high. Monday's CAD CPI-miss spike to the 1.4112 cpi high faded, and Tuesday's leg to the 1.4032 week low ran from London into the first hours of NY as firmer oil supported CAD. Since then price has compressed into a 1.4056–1.4067 range through the Asia session. The range high sits at the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4112–1.4032 leg, price is pinned to a flattening EMA(20) below the ema50 near 1.4080, and RSI(14) has recovered only to the low 40s.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4080, 1.4112
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4067 range high would open the ema50 near 1.4080 and the lower-high trendline around 1.4075; the 50% retrace of the leg sits at 1.4072
A break of the 1.4056 range low would put the 1.4032 week low back in play; failure there would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Only a recovery through the 1.4112 cpi high would neutralise the week's lower-high structure
US-Iran/Hormuz oil headlines remain the main swing factor; Thu US jobless claims and Fri Canada retail sales and US PMIs are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs since Thursday, tight range under EMA(20).
USDCAD has printed lower highs from Thursday's 1.4222 peak. Monday's spike to 1.4112 on the soft Canadian CPI, just under the weekly open, was fully reversed in Tuesday's London session as firm oil and BoC hike pricing supported CAD, and the slide reached a week low at 1.4032 into the NY open. Since then price has compressed between the range floor at 1.4056 and the range top at 1.4067, sitting just under a flat EMA(20) near 1.4063 with RSI(14) at 43, while the bounce has retraced less than 23.6% of the decline and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4075 remains intact.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4077, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 23.6% fib at 1.4077, which coincides with the lower-highs trendline, would break this week's descending sequence
Failure to hold the range floor at 1.4056 reopens the week low at 1.4032
Only a recovery to the weekly open at 1.4113 would negate the downtrend read
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines, plus US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, could shift the read ahead of Friday's Canada retail sales
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; tight range 1.4055–1.4067 since Tuesday's NY session.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.4222 high. It gapped lower into Monday's open and extended to a 1.4032 week low around Tuesday's London-NY transition, with BoC hike pricing and firm oil underpinning CAD. Monday's soft Canadian CPI only lifted the pair to 1.4112 before supply returned beneath the falling trendline, and since Tuesday's NY session price has compressed into a 1.4055–1.4067 range pinned to EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering from oversold toward the low 40s and EMA(50) overhead near 1.4080.
Support: 1.40554, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40701, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4067 range top and the 1.4070 Monday low brings the falling trendline and the 23.6% decline fib near 1.4076 into play
Break of the 1.4055 Asian low exposes the 1.4032 week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4114 weekly open would break this week's lower-high structure
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs/UoM on Fri, could materially shift this read; oil and US-Iran headlines remain a continuous swing factor
USDCAD has traded below the 1.41135 weekly open since Monday's London open, when a 34-pip drop set the tone. The Canada CPI miss spiked price to 1.4112 in NY hours, but the move faded, and the slide extended to the 1.40319 week low in Tuesday's NY session as US-Iran headlines and weak US housing data softened USD while BoC hike pricing supported CAD. Since then, price has based in a tight 1.4043–1.4067 band, and EMA(20) has flattened at 1.4063 with price pinned to it. The Asian range of 1.40561–1.40672 sits just under the 38.2% fib of this week's decline, and the lower-highs trendline from Monday is intact.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40708, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.40708 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4078 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the asia low at 1.40561 puts the 1.40319 week low back in play; a break there confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.41135 would negate the week's downtrend read
US-Iran headlines remain the main driver for oil and USD and could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; tight range 1.4043-1.4067 below trendline.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's post-PPI spike to 1.4222 faded. Monday's post-CPI bounce stalled at 1.4112, and Tuesday's London leg carried into NY hours on soft US housing data to a 1.4032 week low, with firm BoC-hike pricing and Iran-deal USD softness behind the move. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4043-1.4067 range, with a flattening EMA(20) at 1.4063 and Monday's low at 1.4070 capping the Asia session. The descending trendline and the 23.6% retracement of the Thu-Tue drop cluster just above near 1.4077, and RSI(14) has recovered only to the low 40s.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4070, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4070 monday low and the descending trendline near 1.4078 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4043 range floor exposes the 1.4032 week low and the 1.4000 round number
A recovery to the 1.4113 week open would retrace the bulk of this week's decline and neutralise the downtrend read
Thu US jobless claims, plus Fri US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales, could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines moving oil remain the main non-data swing factor for the range
Lower highs/lower lows; tight range above week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs along a lower-high trendline since Thursday's 1.4222 peak. Monday's soft Canadian CPI produced only a brief bounce to 1.4112, just under the weekly open, as BoC hike bets, firm oil and softer US yields kept CAD bid. Asia and London drove Tuesday's leg to a 1.4032 week low in early NY trade, and price has since compressed between a 1.4043 range floor and a 1.4067 range top around a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 40 and price still short of the 23.6% fib of the Thu-Tue decline at 1.4078.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4078, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4067 range top brings the 23.6% fib and the lower-high trendline near 1.4078 into play
Failure to hold the 1.4043 range floor and the 1.4032 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
A reclaim of the weekly open at 1.4113 would break the lower-high structure in place since Thursday
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims, Fri US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales, plus Iran/oil headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's PPI spike, shallow base 1.4032-1.4067.
USDCAD has printed a clean lower-high sequence since Thursday's core PPI spike to 1.4222. The week opened on a gap lower near 1.4114, and the post-CPI bounce on Monday stalled at the monday high of 1.4112. London sessions drove both the Monday and Tuesday legs, as oil strength and BoC hike pricing pushed CAD to one-month highs, and the week low printed at 1.4032 during NY hours Tuesday. Since then price has compressed in a tight 1.4048-1.4067 base and is sitting just above the ema20 near 1.4060, with RSI(14) back to the low 50s, while the lower-high trendline and the 23.6% fib of the drop converge near 1.4078-1.4080.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4080 trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the monday high at 1.4112
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.4060 puts the 1.4032 week low back in play, with the 1.4000 round number beneath
A clear move back above 1.4134, the friday low, would mark the gap lower as filled and invalidate the downtrend read
Thursday's US jobless claims and Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines moving oil remain the main swing factor for CAD
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling under former support · RSI 54 · price 1.40667
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; shallow recovery off Tuesday's NY low.
USDCAD opened the week with a gap below Friday's 1.4136 close and has stayed below the 1.4113 weekly open, with both main legs lower starting in London and Tuesday's week low at 1.4032 printing in NY hours as oil strength and BoC hike bets lifted CAD. Monday's soft Canadian CPI briefly spiked price to 1.4112 before it faded within hours, and the lower-highs trendline from Thursday's 1.4222 high has capped every rally since. The overnight recovery has reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.4065 with RSI(14) back to the mid-50s and ATR(14) compressed to about 10 pips, leaving price just under Monday's low at 1.4070.
Support: 1.40645, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40701, 1.4081, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 1.4070 monday low and the lh trendline near 1.4081 would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the 1.4104 fib 38.2% and 1.4113 weekly open
Slipping back below ema20 at 1.4065 puts the 1.4032 week low back in focus, and a break there extends the lower-low structure
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales (f/c 1.3% m/m) are the next scheduled catalysts, with Fri 13:45 UTC US PMIs close behind
US-Iran deal headlines moving oil could shift CAD's oil-linked support quickly