Lower highs and lower lows all week, from the 1.4129 weekly open to a 1.4004 low.
USDCAD has bled about 125 pips from Monday's 1.4129 weekly open. Rallies have been capped at successively lower highs: Monday's post-CPI pop to 1.4112, Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 lower high, and Thursday's 1.4044 thu high after the claims beat. CAD has stayed firm on the oil rally and BoC hike pricing. Late in Thursday's NY session price set a fresh week low at 1.4004, just above the 1.4000 round number, and it now sits below the ema20 near 1.4019 with RSI(14) holding sub-50 and no clear divergence.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4044 thu high would break the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend sequence
Acceptance below the 1.4004 week low and the 1.4000 round number would extend the lower-low structure
Recovery back above the ema20 near 1.4019 would be the first sign the slide is pausing; the 38.2% fib of the week's decline sits at 1.4052
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read; crude headlines remain the main CAD driver
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, pressing the 1.4000 round number.
USDCAD has made lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.4134 peak above the 1.4114 weekly open. London-session selling on Tuesday and Thursday drove the weekly decline as the oil rally and BoC hike pricing firmed CAD, and Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 wed high was rejected. Thursday's rebound stalled at a 1.4044 lower high before NY hours pushed to a 1.4004 week low just above the 1.4000 round number, with price capped by the EMA(20) near 1.4024 and RSI(14) near 33, short of oversold.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40237, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond the week low
Recovery above the 1.4044 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 near 1.4024 signal the weekly decline losing momentum
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales, then US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
Crude swings on Gulf and Russian infrastructure headlines remain CAD's main driver this week
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low into close · RSI 31 · price 1.40043
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; 1.4000 psych being tested.
USDCAD has slid from Monday's open at 1.4114. Each day has printed a lower high: the 1.4134 week high, then the 1.4082 wed high, then the 1.4044 thu high, which formed in the first hour of NY and stalled under the 23.6% retracement area. CAD has stayed firm on the crude rally and BoC hike pricing, and the latest NY-hours leg pushed price below the ema20 near 1.4024 to a week low at 1.4004, just above the 1.4000 psych level. RSI(14) near 31 shows stretched downside momentum, but it has not reached an oversold extreme.
Support: 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4044 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 psych extends the downtrend into new weekly lows
Failure to reclaim the ema20 around 1.4024 keeps rallies capped below the lower highs trendline
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
Oil headlines remain the main CAD driver; a crude reversal would test the 1.4082 wed high
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4134 weekly high; price retesting Thursday's week low.
USDCAD has slid from the 1.4134 weekly high set right after the open, printing a lower high each day: Wednesday's NY spike stalled at the 1.4082 wed high and Thursday's London bounce capped at the 1.4044 thu high. CAD strength on the oil rally and BoC hike pricing outweighed a firmer USD after the 194K claims beat, and the NY session pushed price back to the 1.4013 week low, below EMA(20) near 1.4026. RSI(14) is holding above its morning trough on this equal-low retest, a mild bullish divergence that has not yet produced a higher low.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4013 week low and the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4044 thu high breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Sustained trade back above ema20 would confirm the RSI divergence is producing a bounce
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
Crude headlines on Middle East escalation remain the main CAD driver into the session close
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, price pressing the week low.
USDCAD has slid from the 1.4114 weekly open, with London sessions driving each fresh leg lower and lower highs printing at 1.4112, Wednesday's 1.4082 rejection and Thursday's 1.4044 high. CAD's oil-driven bid and BoC hike pricing frame the move, and Thursday's US claims beat lifted USD only briefly before the NY session pushed price back toward the 1.4013 week low. Price is capped below EMA(20) near 1.4030 with RSI(14) near 38, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond the week low
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4030 and a close above the 1.4044 Thursday high would break the lower-high trendline read
Bounces have stalled well short of the 38.2% retrace of the week decline fib (~1.4059). A move through Wednesday's 1.4082 high invalidates the downtrend structure
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight coil above the week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY session (1.4112, then the Wed high at 1.4082 from a NY spike that fully faded), with the week low at 1.4013 set in London trade today as CAD drew support from the oil rally and BoC hike pricing. The rebound off the week low stalled at the Thu high near 1.4044 as the claims beat gave USD a modest lift. Price is now coiling between the session low at 1.4024 and EMA(20) near 1.4035, with RSI(14) near 40 and the lower-highs trendline still capping.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4059, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Thu high at 1.4044 would reclaim EMA(20) and open the 38.2% fib retracement of the week's decline at 1.4059
Break below the session low at 1.4024 puts the week low at 1.4013 and the 1.4000 round number back in play
Lower-highs trendline from Monday's 1.4112 runs near 1.4064; a close above it would break the week's descending sequence
A push above the Wed high at 1.4082 would negate the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; corrective bounce off the week low.
USD/CAD has shed roughly 100 pips since the weekly open at 1.4114, with Wednesday's high at 1.4082 printing another lower high. CAD remains bid on oil's supply-scare rally and BoC hike pricing, while the USD stays soft on housing-led yield declines. Today's London-session push set a fresh week low at 1.4013. The bounce has stalled at the 1.4044 today high, near the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline, and price is pinned to EMA(20) around 1.4035 with RSI(14) near 44. The firm US jobless claims print drew little follow-through.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4044 today high, then the 1.4082 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence along the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4013 week low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Fri Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Gulf supply headlines driving WTI near $99 remain the main swing factor for CAD
Lower highs all week; fresh week low today, shallow recovery.
Since the 1.4114 weekly open, lower highs at 1.4112 (Monday's NY high), 1.4082 (Wednesday's NY spike, quickly faded) and 1.4044 today define the week, with Asia-to-London selling printing a fresh week low at 1.4013 as oil strength and softer US yields weighed. The London bounce has stalled right at EMA(20) near 1.4035 with RSI(14) around 40, retracing only about 30% of the drop from Monday's NY high. The 1.4000 round number sits just below.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4082, 1.4114
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4044 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4066 would break the week's sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4013 week low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Recovery through the 1.4082 wed high toward the 1.4114 weekly open would negate the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Fri Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs carry event risk for both legs of the pair
Lower highs since Monday, testing broken Tue low from below.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4134 spike after Monday's weekly open. The London drop on Monday and Tuesday's London-NY leg did most of the work as softer US data and an oil-driven CAD bid weighed. Wednesday's NY rally to the 1.4082 wed high was rejected, and London extended to a 1.4013 week low today before bouncing back to the broken tue low at 1.4032, where price sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40319, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close above the tue low at 1.4032 and EMA(20) turns the bounce into a test of 1.4059, the 38.2% of the week decline fib
Failure to hold the 1.4013 week low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Close above the wed high at 1.4082 breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the weekly open at 1.4114 back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, plus Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Friday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, new week low near 1.4000.
USDCAD opened the week gapped lower at 1.4114 and has printed lower highs every day since Monday's 1.4134 week high. The legs lower came in early Monday trade and in Tuesday's NY session after the soft US housing data, with oil strength and BoC hike pricing also supporting CAD. Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 wed high was rejected below the lower-highs line, and London today broke the 1.4032 tue low to a 1.4013 week low; price now sits under EMA(20) near 1.4035 with RSI(14) around 31, just above the 1.4000 round number, while the Asian high at 1.4049 caps the session so far.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40319, 1.40489, 1.40816
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read through the USD leg
H1 close back above the 1.4032 tue low and EMA(20) would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4049 asian high and the 38.2% week decline fib near 1.4059 challenges the lower-highs sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.4013 week low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Friday are the next scheduled catalysts for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Tuesday low broken.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 1.4134 high. Monday's post-CPI spike to 1.4112 faded, and Wednesday's NY push to 1.4082 (wed high) reversed under the lower-highs trendline. Thursday's Asian range then took out the 1.4032 tue low, and early London extended the move to a 1.4013 week low as oil strength and BoC hike pricing kept CAD firm. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) oversold near 27 and pullbacks this week stalling well short of the 38.2% fib of the week's range near 1.4059.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40319, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4032 tue low would turn the breakdown into a false break.
Acceptance below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence from the 1.4013 week low.
An H1 close above the 1.4082 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 1.4114 week open the next structural cap.
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC today) and Friday's Canada Retail Sales could materially shift this read.
Lower highs since Monday; Tue–Wed range broken lower.
USDCAD has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 1.4134 Asia high. The only real bounce came on Monday's soft Canadian CPI print in NY, and Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 wed high was sold back within the hour. Price slipped through the 1.4032 tuesday low (the one-month low) in Asia and into today's London open, setting a fresh week low near 1.4018 below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 31, as firm oil and BoC hike pricing keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.40181, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40319, 1.4039, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4032 tuesday low would turn today's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4018 week low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4040, then the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline near 1.4062, would challenge the lower-highs read
Close above the 1.4082 wed high breaks the week's lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today and Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows all week · RSI 31 · price 1.4026
Lower-high sequence 1.4134 / 1.4112 / 1.4082, new week low at 1.4025.
USDCAD has printed lower highs at 1.4134, 1.4112 and 1.4082 since Sunday's 1.4114 open. The main legs came in London hours, with CAD firm on oil and BoC-hike pricing and the USD soft after weak housing data. Wednesday's NY bounce stalled at the wed high, near the 50% level of the week range fib. Asia has since pushed to a new week low at 1.4025, just through the 1.4032 tue low that also marks the one-month low, with price under ema20 near 1.4043 and RSI(14) around 31.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4043, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4032 tue low would turn the break into a false break; a recovery above the ema20 at 1.4043 eases the downside pressure
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.4082 wed high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych extends the week-low sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today, then Fri Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday open, marginal new low in Asia.
Since the 1.41135 weekly open, the pair has printed lower highs at 1.41121 Monday and 1.40816 Wednesday. The heaviest downside legs came in London on Monday and into the NY session Tuesday after the US housing misses. Wednesday's NY spike to the wed high, which sits at the 50% retracement of the week's range, faded back below EMA(20), and Asia today set a new week low at 1.40298 at the 1.4030 one-month low flagged in the digest, with oil-backed CAD demand and a soft USD behind the six-day slide.
Support: 1.40298, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.40298 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4045 and a break of the lower-high trendline would stall the downtrend read; a close above the 1.40816 wed high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could shift the USD leg of this read
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs Fri 12:30–13:45 UTC are the next scheduled risk for the week-low test
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower at a slower pace · RSI 37 · price 1.40359
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; price testing the week low.
Since the 1.4113 weekly open, USDCAD has posted lower highs. London selling broke 1.4100 on Monday, and the Canadian CPI-miss bounce stalled at 1.4112. Tuesday's London–NY sessions drove most of the slide to 1.4032, with firm oil and BoC hike pricing keeping CAD bid. Wednesday's NY-open spike to 1.4082 met rejection at the 50% retracement of the weekly drop. Price is now pressing the 1.4030 week low in the Asian session, below the EMA(20) at 1.4046, with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.4082, 1.4113
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4030 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
A reclaim of the EMA20 and a break of the lower highs trendline near 1.4072 would interrupt the downtrend read
A close above the 1.4082 Wed high (50% retracement) neutralises this week's lower-high structure; the weekly open at 1.4113 is the next reference
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today could move the USD leg
Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs are pre-BoC catalysts that could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, lows compressing at week low.
USD/CAD has trended lower from the 1.41135 weekly open. Monday's CPI-miss bounce to 1.4112 faded, and Tuesday's London-to-NY leg set the week low at 1.40319. Wednesday's NY bounce was rejected at the 1.40816 wed high, near the 50% retracement of the week's drop, and the Asia session has pressed back toward the low with price below EMA(20) near 1.4050 and RSI(14) in the mid-30s. Firm oil, heavy BoC hike pricing and a soft dollar explain the six-day slide, though 1.4032–1.4038 has held three times this week.
Support: 1.40319, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40816, 1.41135
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.40319 week low confirms a lower-low and puts 1.4000 psych in view
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.4050 and then the 1.40816 wed high would break the lower-high sequence and the downtrend line
Acceptance back above the weekly open at 1.41135 would invalidate the week's downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/CAD has carved lower highs since Monday's 1.4134 high. The London sessions on Monday and Tuesday drove most of the decline, and Tuesday's NY session set the 1.4032 week low after the US housing misses, with oil strength and BoC-hike pricing keeping CAD firm. Wednesday's NY spike to 1.4082 met rejection just under the 50% fib of the week's drop and faded back below the ema20, which has capped price since. Lows at 1.4032, 1.4038 and the 1.4041 Asia low now form a rising tl under a narrowing range, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.4082, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low breaks the rising tl and extends the lower-low sequence, opening the path to the 1.4000 round number
A close back above the ema20 and the 1.4082 50% fib would print the first higher high since Monday and break the lower highs line, with the 1.4113 weekly open next overhead
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC), then Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and the US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; 1.4032–1.4082 range since Tuesday.
USDCAD has extended the drop from Friday's 1.4194 high. It opened the week below Friday's close, and Monday's spike to 1.4112 on the soft Canadian CPI faded back into the slide, with oil strength and BoC hike pricing keeping CAD firm. Since Tuesday's week low at 1.4032, printed into the NY open, the pair has compressed in a 1.4032–1.4082 range, and Wednesday's NY rally to the wed high reversed within the hour. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 42, pressing the wed low at 1.4038 under a series of lower highs.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4082, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low breaks the consolidation and resumes lower-lows toward the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.4049, then a close above the 1.4082 wed high, would break the lower-highs trendline
Recovery to the week open at 1.4113, also the 50% retracement of the Fri–Tue drop, would neutralise the downtrend read
US Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, rebound faded · RSI 44 · price 1.40417
Lower highs since Monday, holding just above week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Monday's CPI-driven spike back to the week open near 1.4113. Firm oil, BoC hike pricing and a soft USD after Tuesday's housing misses pressed it to a 1.4032 week low during NY hours. Wednesday's NY-session rebound met rejection at 1.4082, the Wed high and 61.8% retracement of the Mon-Tue drop, and price has since slipped back below EMA(20) near 1.4051 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.4082, 1.4113
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4032 week low confirms a fresh lower low; the 1.4038 Wed low is the first test
H1 close above the 1.4082 Wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4113 week open back in play
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.4051 would neutralise the drift lower
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and CAD retail sales / US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read