21:05 UTC
Sept–Oct uptrend in a corrective slide · RSI 42 · price 1.40054
Triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 broke; six-session slide testing 50% of Sept rally.
The Sept 8 swing low at 1.3759 launched a five-week rally. It stalled in a triple top, with the ceiling at 1.4293–1.4299 tested on Oct 5, Oct 9 and the Oct 14 high, and a break below the 1.4203 range floor then triggered a six-session slide. Price now sits below EMA(20) and the EMA(50) near 1.4072, testing the 1.4000 psych level just under the 50% retracement of the Sept rally, as BoC hike pricing and firm oil lift CAD. RSI(14) near 42 shows momentum fading without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3966, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4072, 1.4203, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.4000 psych level exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3966, then the Sept low at 1.3759
- Recovery back above the ema50 at 1.4072 would frame the slide as a pullback within the Sept–Oct uptrend; the 1.4203 range floor sits above as the next cap
- BoC decision Oct 28 13:45 UTC: a hold or a one-and-done hike message could unwind the CAD-led slide, and the Fed decision next week adds USD-side risk
- Fri Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs are the final data tests before the BoC