Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; tight base above 1.4032.
Three failed tests of 1.4293-1.4299 marked a triple top, and the pair has since printed a clean sequence of lower highs into the 1.4032 swing low. CAD has been driven by hawkish BoC hike repricing and firm oil, alongside a soft USD. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips as bars tighten into a small base. Supply has capped the bounces at the 1.4082 recent high and the 1.4112 prior pivot.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4082 recent high and 1.4112 prior pivot would break the lower-high trendline and open the 38.2% fib at 1.4134
Fri CAD Retail Sales and US flash PMIs could break the current ATR compression
BoC decision Oct 28 (~80% hike priced): a hold or a dovish hike could reverse the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 top, now basing above 1.4032.
USDCAD has made lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 top. The pair has slid about 270 pips to a swing low at 1.4032, driven by a firm CAD on BoC October hike pricing and five-month-high oil, plus a soft USD. The decline has stalled: two tests of the 1.4032-1.4038 area held, ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 pips from 35-45 during the selloff, and the latest bar pushed into the descending trendline off the 1.4134 and 1.4112 lower highs. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and the retracement so far is shallow, below the 38.2% fib at 1.4134.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4166
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4032 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4112 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs and puts the 38.2% fib at 1.4134 and the 50% fib at 1.4166 in play
Sustained trade above the descending trendline with ATR expanding would mark a shift from basing to rebound
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs, both Fri 12:30-13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
BoC decision Oct 28 (hike ~80% priced) is the main structural risk; a hold or a one-off framing would cut against the CAD-driven downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since the triple top at 1.4290-1.4300.
A triple top at 1.4290-1.4300 capped price three times into mid-October. The break of the 1.4200 neckline then turned the structure into lower highs and lower lows, with EMA20 now below EMA50, as oil strength and BoC hike pricing kept CAD bid. Price is now compressing in a tight band above the 1.4032 swing low (the one-month low), with ATR(14) easing to about 22 pips and the descending trendline from 1.4222 capping near 1.4070.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
H4 close above the trendline and the 1.4112 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 38.2% fib at 1.4134 next overhead
Canadian Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of the BoC Oct 28 decision
A sharp crude reversal on US-Iran headlines would remove the main CAD driver behind the slide
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top.
Three failures at 1.4293-1.4299 capped the 1.4196-1.4299 range, and the break below the range floor began a lower-high, lower-low sequence. CAD strength on BoC hike repricing and firm oil drove the slide to the 1.4032 swing low, which matches the one-month low and 50% Fib flagged in the macro digest. EMA20 is below EMA50 and RSI sits near 30, while the last five bars have compressed beneath the 1.4112 lower high, with ATR(14) narrowing to around 22 pips.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4196
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.4000 round number in view
A recovery through the 1.4112 lower high and the lower-high trendline would break the swing structure
The fib 38.2 retracement at 1.4134, then the old 1.4196 range floor, are the areas to watch for rejection on any rebound
Canada Retail Sales on Fri at 12:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could resolve the current compression
Next week's BoC (Oct 28) and FOMC meetings could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top.
Three failures at 1.4293–1.4299 formed a triple top. The break of the 1.4196–1.4206 neckline turned the earlier advance into a decline of lower highs and lower lows, as hawkish BoC repricing after Macklem's oil-inflation comments lifted CAD. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50. The last three bars have compressed just above the 1.4032 swing low, with RSI near 30 and ATR(14) around 22 pips and contracting.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Close above the 1.4112 lower high breaks the decline's lower-high sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 retracement at 1.4134
A recovery into the 1.4200 neckline would test the triple-top breakdown from below
Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US S&P PMIs / UoM (Fri) could materially shift this read ahead of the BoC on Oct 28
Lower highs and lower lows since the triple top near 1.4300.
Three failures at 1.4293–1.4299 formed a triple top. The break below the 1.4200 neckline then became a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, as BoC hike pricing, firm oil and a softer USD lifted CAD to one-month highs. Price is basing just above the 1.4032 swing low, with RSI near oversold and ATR(14) steady around 24 pips. EMA20 sits below EMA50 and price trades under both.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4112 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 1.4134 prior low also marks the 38.2% fib of the 1.4299–1.4032 leg
Only a recovery through the 1.4200 neckline would neutralise the triple-top breakdown
Fri Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, then the Oct 28 BoC decision, could materially shift this read
Iran/Hormuz headlines driving oil reversals are a risk to the CAD leg of the move