USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing in early Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.40458
Lower highs since the NY spike; tight band above the London low.
The NY spike to the 1.4082 ny high was a false break above the Asian range top. That NY fade has since printed a lower high at 1.4055 and a late ny high at 1.4050, with CAD firm on oil and BoC hike pricing. Early Asia is compressing between 1.4041 and 1.4049, just above the 1.4038 london low. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4041 asia low and the 1.4038 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4030 month low
A close above the 1.4050 late ny high, then the 1.4055 lower high (near the 38.2% of the NY fade), breaks the lower-high chain
Thin Asia liquidity keeps ranges tight; Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims is the next scheduled catalyst
23:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.40474
Lower highs from the 1.4082 NY spike, lows compressing near 1.4041.
London broke below yesterday's Asian range (1.4056–1.4067) to a 1.4038 London low. The early-NY spike to 1.4082 was rejected and has been sold in a lower-high chain, with crude strength and a soft USD keeping CAD firm. Early Asia is drifting near 1.4047 on thin ranges, just above the 1.4041 session low, with the 1.4055 lower high and the 38.2% retrace overhead.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4055 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4041 session low and 1.4038 london low exposes the 1.4030 month low
Reclaim of the 1.4067 asian high would neutralise the downtrend read; 1.4082 ny spike caps beyond
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift the USD leg
NY spike high rejected, lower highs into a tight range above the London low.
The NY session spike to the ny high at 1.4082 fully unwound as oil-backed CAD demand and a soft USD reasserted. Price is now compressing in early Asia between the ny low at 1.4041 and the 1.4055 swing high, holding just above the london low at 1.4038. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is down to about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.40611, 1.40816
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4038 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4030 1m low and Fibonacci support
A close above the 1.4055 swing high reopens the 1.4061 fib 50% retracement of the NY leg
Rejection again at the 1.4082 ny high would keep the lower-high sequence intact
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY spike, compressing above day low.
The NY session high at 1.4082 met rejection and was fully retraced. A lower-high chain carried price to a 1.4041 session low into the rollover, just above the London day low at 1.4038, a fade consistent with oil-led CAD firmness. Early Asia session is compressing in a 1.4041–1.4050 band, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42. Price is capped below the 23.6% fib of the NY drop and the Asian low at 1.4056.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4056, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4041 session low and 1.4038 day low brings the 1.4030 month low (50% Fibonacci) into view
M15 close above the 23.6% fib at 1.4050 and back through the asian low at 1.4056 breaks the lower-high sequence
Crude and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines during the Asia session could shift the CAD leg of this read
Reclaim of the 1.4082 session high would negate the post-NY rejection
Lower highs since NY spike high; tight 1.4041–1.4050 base into Asia open.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 London low. The NY spike to the 1.4082 day high was rejected and fully retraced as firm oil and BoC hike pricing kept CAD bid. Late NY is basing between the 1.4041 NY low and 1.4050 psych into the Asia open; RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and price sits on EMA20 below the EMA50.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 London low exposes the 1.4030 month low (one-month low)
Reclaim of the 1.4055 swing high, which coincides with the Asian range floor, breaks the lower-high chain within the NY reversal fib
Crude and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines in the Asia session could move CAD
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY spike; late-NY low holding above London low.
London broke below the Asian range to the 1.4038 london low. The early-NY spike to the 1.4082 ny high was a false break above the Asian range and was rejected, then unwound into a lower-high chain as firm oil kept CAD bid. The 1.4041 session low held above the London low, and price is drifting near 1.4047 in thin early-Asia trade, capped by the 1.4050 swing high.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4038 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4030 1-month low flagged in the digest
M15 close above the 1.4055 lower high breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence; the 50% fib of the NY drop sits at 1.4061
Holding above the 1.4041 session low keeps the higher-low-vs-London read intact
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor for CAD
Lower highs after the failed NY spike; holding above London low.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 London low. The NY open spike to the 1.4082 NY high was a false break of the Asian high and was fully rejected, in line with the soft-USD, oil-supported CAD backdrop. Early Asia is compressing at 1.4041–1.4050 above the late NY low, capped by the 1.4055 lower high near the 38.2% of the NY fade fib.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4038 London low exposes the 1.4030 1-month low.
M15 close above the 1.4055 lower high reopens the 1.4067 Asian high and weakens the lower-high sequence.
Oil and US-Iran headlines during Asia can move CAD quickly. Thu 12:30 UTC Initial Claims (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled USD risk.
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower after NY spike rejection · RSI 38 · price 1.40426
Lower highs since 1.4082 NY high, price pressing London low.
London broke the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range lower to a 1.4038 London low. The NY-open spike to the 1.4082 NY high was fully rejected, and price has held a lower-high sequence since, now sitting near 1.4042 after NY close with RSI(14) near 38. Firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing frames the slide.
Support: 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.40561, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 london low opens the 1.4030 1-month low (50% Fibonacci)
Close above the 1.4050 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; asian low at 1.4056 is the next cap
Crude and US-Iran headlines in thin Asia hours could jolt CAD and shift this read
NY rally fully retraced; lower-high chain under falling trendline.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 day low. The NY rally to the 1.4082 ny high cleared the Asian high, then fully reversed in a false break. That reversal left a lower-high chain (1.4055 swing high, 1.4050 lower high) under a falling trendline. Price is pressing the 1.4041 late low into the Asia open with RSI(14) near 39, while firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing caps rebounds.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4038 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4030 1-month low
Close above the 1.4050 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the immediate downtrend read
Recovery above the 1.4055 swing high reopens the 1.4082 ny high
Oil / US-Iran headlines during Asia could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the failed NY-open spike.
The NY-open spike through the Asian high at 1.4067 to 1.4082 met rejection and was fully unwound. Each bounce since has stalled at a lower high (1.4055 swing high, then 1.4050), and price now sits just above the London low at 1.4038. Firm oil and a soft USD back the CAD bid, and RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.4055, 1.40672
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the london low at 1.4038 extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4030 month low flagged in the CAD digest
A reclaim of the 1.4050 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.4055 swing high back in play
Price back above the asian high at 1.4067 would negate the false-break read
Thin post-rollover Asia session liquidity; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
21:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 43 · price 1.40478
NY spike above Asian high fully faded; lower highs, basing above London low.
Early-NY spike to the 1.4082 ny high cleared the 1.4067 asian high, but it was rejected and fully faded through late NY on a soft USD and firm crude, carving lower highs off the 1.4055 swing high. Price is basing at the 1.4042 session low, just above the 1.4038 london low and on the 78.6% retrace of the London–NY leg, with the last bar pushing into the descending trendline.
Support: 1.4042, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4055 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline from the ny high
Failure to hold the 1.4038 london low exposes the 1.4030 1-month low flagged as 50% Fibonacci support
A return above the 1.4067 asian high would negate the false-break read
Oil / Hormuz or US-Iran headlines during the Asia session can move the CAD leg sharply in thin liquidity
False break above Asian high, full reversal into late-NY lows.
The mid-NY spike through the Asian high to 1.4082 met rejection and has fully unwound, with lower highs stepping down to the late-NY low at 1.4042 as firm oil and a soft USD keep CAD bid. RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs. The London low at 1.4038 sits just beneath, with the 1.4030 one-month low behind it.
Support: 1.4042, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.40672, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the London low at 1.4038 exposes the 1.4030 one-month low
M15 close above the 1.4055 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending line
Reclaim of the Asian high at 1.4067 would negate the false break read
Thin rollover and Asia session liquidity ahead; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 London low. The 13:45 UTC NY spike to the 1.4082 NY high was rejected and fully unwound, with a chain of lower highs since, the latest at 1.4055. Late NY trades 4 pips above the London low with RSI(14) near 32, as firm oil and BoC hike pricing keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 London low exposes the 1.4030 one-month low flagged in the CAD digest
Close back above the 1.4055 lower high breaks the post-spike lower-high chain and reopens the Asian high at 1.4067
Oil and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines could move this read overnight; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 low. A NY-hours spike to the 1.4082 spike high cleared the Asian high, then failed and was fully retraced, leaving lower highs under a descending trendline. Price sits near 1.4045, just above the 1.4042 swing low, with RSI(14) ~35 as firm oil and a soft USD keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.4042, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4042 swing low puts the 1.4038 london low and 1.4030 month low in play
M15 close above the 1.4055 lower high breaks the descending trendline and weakens the downtrend read
Recovery back above the 1.4067 asian high would reopen the spike high zone
Oil / Hormuz headlines in thin Asia session trade could shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 36 · price 1.40456
Lower-high/lower-low sequence below the Asian range, pressing swing low.
The NY spike to the 1.4082 NY high at 14:00 UTC was rejected. Price then stepped down in lower highs back through the Asian range (1.4056–1.4067) and retraced past the 78.6% rebound fib of the London move up from 1.4038. Late NY is pressing the 1.4042 swing low, with oil firm on the large crude draw underpinning CAD and RSI(14) near 36, not yet stretched.
Support: 1.40423, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.40672, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4030 1-month low
Recovery above the 1.4055 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 1.4067 asian high back in play
Oil and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines during the Asia session could shift the CAD leg; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs from NY spike · RSI 35 · price 1.40453
NY false break above the Asian high fully reversed; price back near day lows.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 london low. NY spiked through the asian high to a 1.4082 ny high, then reversed as the oil-supportive EIA crude draw firmed CAD. Late NY now trades 1.4045, over 78.6% back into the NY rally on a lower-high trendline, just above the 1.4044 ny low.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.40672, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4038 london low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4030 1-month low
M15 close above the 1.4055 lower high breaks the trendline and stalls the downtrend read
Recovery back inside the Asian range above the 1.4067 asian high reopens the 1.4082 ny high
Oil and Hormuz headlines into the Asia session remain the swing factor for CAD
19:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY spike, momentum flattening · RSI 36 · price 1.40503
Lower highs from 1.4082 NY high, trading below the Asian range.
NY spiked above the Asian high to 1.4082 and was rejected. The whole rally unwound in a lower-high sequence, and price now sits below the Asian low at 1.4056 and through the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) near 36. The NY low at 1.4044 held on the latest dip, with the London low at 1.4038 and the 1.4030 month low beneath, as firm oil and a soft dollar keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low and the NY lower-high trendline breaks the descending chain, putting the 1.4067 Asian high back in play
Failure at the 1.4044 NY low and a break of the 1.4038 London low expose the 1.4030 month low
A move back through the 1.4082 NY high would negate the false-break read
Late NY into Asia session with no scheduled data in the next 8h; crude and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor
19:16 UTC
Downtrend since NY open spike, flattening · RSI 37 · price 1.4051
Lower highs from 1.4082 NY high, basing above 1.4044 NY low.
Late NY session. The NY open spike above the Asian high to a 1.4082 NY high was a false break, and the rejection has since printed a lower-high sequence that retraced about 85% of the London low–NY high fib leg to a 1.4044 NY low, with CAD firm on oil and BoC hike pricing. Price is now basing at 1.4047–1.4052, below the 1.4056 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4044 NY low exposes the 1.4038 London low and the 1.4030 1-month low
An M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low eases the lower-high read, with the 1.4067 Asian high next
Meta earnings tonight could shift USD tone and change this read
Lower highs since 1.4082 NY high, below Asian range.
London broke the Asian range (1.4056–1.4067) and printed a 1.4038 london low. A NY spike through the asian high to 1.4082 was rejected, and price has stepped back down on lower highs to a 1.4044 ny low. Spot is at 1.4051 late in NY, just above the 1.4030 month low, with firm oil and a soft dollar behind the CAD bid.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 asian low ends the sub-range trade and tests the ny downtrend line
A close above 1.4059 (38.2% of the ny fade fib) would break the lower-high sequence; 1.4067 asian high and 1.4082 ny high sit above
A break of the 1.4038 london low exposes the 1.4030 month low
Meta earnings tonight: an AI-risk sentiment swing could move USD after the NY close
18:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY spike, momentum flattening · RSI 45 · price 1.40497
Lower highs and lower lows below the failed 1.4082 spike.
London broke below the Asian range and set the london low at 1.4038. The NY session then spiked to a 1.4082 spike high, a false break above the 1.4067 asian high that was rejected and has faded in lower highs to a 1.4044 ny low. Price is holding near 1.4050, under the 1.4059 lower high and the descending trendline, with CAD firm on BoC hike odds and oil strength.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40592, 1.40672, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4059 lower high (38.2% of the NY fade) breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4044 ny low exposes the 1.4038 london low and the 1.4030 one-month low
Reclaim of the 1.4067 asian high would neutralise the false-break read
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Meta Q3 earnings risk tone and Hormuz oil headlines can still move this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY spike, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 1.40505
Failed NY spike above Asian high, retraced deep into London-NY leg.
London broke the Asian range low and printed 1.4038 before a 13:45 UTC NY spike to the 1.4082 ny high failed above the Asian high. That false break has unwound into lower highs along a descending line, taking price past the 61.8% of the london low–ny high fib. Late NY, price holds 1.4050 below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, with the ny low at 1.4044 just beneath, as CAD stays firm on oil and BoC hike pricing.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4056 and the descending line breaks the lower-high sequence
Break of the 1.4044 ny low exposes the 1.4038 london low and the 1.4030 1-month low
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; crude and Hormuz headlines are the main intraday CAD driver
18:16 UTC
Downtrend since NY spike, momentum heavy · RSI 33 · price 1.40451
Lower highs from 1.4082; price below the Asian range.
The early-NY spike to the 1.4082 session high was rejected. A lower-high chain through 1.4072 has since pulled price back to 1.4045, below the Asian low near 1.4056 and past the 78.6% retracement of the 1.4038–1.4082 rally. Late NY trade sits about 7 pips above the 1.4038 session low, with RSI(14) near 33, as firm crude and BoC hike pricing keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40721, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low and the lower-high trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4038 session low exposes the 1.4030 1m low flagged in the digest
A move back through the 1.4072 lower high reopens the 1.4082 session high
Crude/Hormuz headlines are the CAD swing factor; Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims is the next scheduled USD risk
18:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 33 · price 1.40451
Failed NY break above Asian high, price back below Asian low into London low.
The NY spike to 1.4082 cleared the Asian high, was rejected and fully unwound, leaving lower highs under a descending trendline as price slipped back beneath the Asian low into late NY at 1.4045. CAD stays firm on oil near five-month highs and BoC hike pricing, putting the London low at 1.4038 and the 1.4030 one-month low next below, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 1.4038 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4030 1-month low
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.4056 and the descending trendline negates the fade, with the asian high at 1.4067 and the ny high at 1.4082 above
Oil and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines after London close could move this pair before Thursday's US jobless claims
Price is already below the 78.6% level of the NY spike retrace; a full retrace through 1.4038 voids the spike entirely
NY false break above Asian high, lower highs back below Asian low.
London broke the Asian range low and printed a 1.4038 london low. Early NY then spiked through the asian high to a 1.4082 ny high, and that push was fully rejected. Late NY sees price at 1.4053 under a run of lower highs, already through the 61.8% retrace of the London low-to-NY high move, with firm oil and BoC hike pricing keeping CAD supported.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 asian low would neutralise the fade and put the 1.4067 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4048 fib 78.6 exposes the 1.4038 london low, then the 1.4030 month low cited in the CAD digest
Reclaim of the 1.4082 ny high breaks the lower highs sequence and invalidates the rejection read
Crude and Hormuz/US-Iran headlines can move CAD outside scheduled data; jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC are the next USD print
Lower highs from 1.4082 NY high, back testing Asian low.
London broke the Asian low to a 1.4038 session low before NY spiked above the Asian range to a 1.4082 NY high. That spike was rejected and has fully unwound. Price is back on the 1.4056 Asian low near the 61.8% fib, with a lower-high trendline capping late NY as firm oil keeps CAD supported.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4044, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4072, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4056 asian low exposes the 1.4044 swing low and 1.4038 session low
Reclaim of the 1.4060 50% fib and a break of the lower-high trendline toward 1.4072 would negate the fade read
Only a move back through the 1.4082 ny high reopens the upside break
Meta earnings tonight and US-Iran/oil headlines can jolt both legs after NY close
London low at 1.4038, NY false break above Asian high, lower highs since.
London broke the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range lower to a 1.4038 session low. NY then spiked through the Asian high to 1.4082 but was rejected, and lower highs since have pulled price back to the 61.8% fib of that rally near 1.4055. Firm oil and the softer USD after weak housing data keep CAD supported, with price below EMA20 and RSI neutral late in the NY session.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4055 fib 61.8 exposes the 1.4038 session low and the 1.4030 month low
Close above the 1.4067 Asian high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 1.4082 NY high
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main swing factor for CAD; no scheduled data in the next 8h
17:02 UTC
Choppy, fading after failed NY spike · RSI 48 · price 1.4057
Lower highs off the 1.4082 NY high, price back at the Asian range floor.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range to a 1.4038 London low. The NY-open spike cleared the Asian high to 1.4082, then failed. Since then, lower highs have walked price back to the 1.4055 swing low, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 48 with both EMAs flat overhead. CAD stays firm on oil at five-month highs, which keeps rebounds shallow.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4050, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4055 swing low and the 1.4050 round number exposes the 1.4038 London low
Reclaim of the 1.4067 Asian high breaks the lower highs sequence, with the 1.4082 NY high above
Thin post-London-close liquidity plus oil/US-Iran headlines and Meta earnings tonight could jolt the range
NY spike above Asian high rejected; lower highs back inside Asian range.
London broke the Asian low and printed a day low at 1.4038. NY then spiked through the Asian high to a 1.4082 spike high, and that move was fully rejected. Price is back at the 50% fib of the rally after London close, with each bounce capped at a lower high from 1.4072 while the 1.4058 swing low has held three times. CAD stays firm on oil and BoC hike pricing.
Support: 1.4058, 1.4056, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4072, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4058 swing low and 1.4056 asian low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.4038 day low
Recovery above the 1.4072 lower high and the asian high at 1.4067 reopens the 1.4082 spike high
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor into Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims
V-recovery from London low, spike rejected, NY chop 1.4058–1.4072.
The London session slid to a 1.4038 london low, holding above the 1.4030 one-month low, as firm CAD and a soft USD after weak housing data weighed. NY reversed it with a 14:00 UTC spike through the asian high to a 1.4082 spike high that was rejected. After London close, price is chopping between the 1.4058 ny low and a 1.4072 lower high, sitting at the 38.2% fib of the rebound with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.4058, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4072, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4072 lower high and the 1.4067 asian high reopens the 1.4082 spike high
Failure to hold the 1.4058 ny low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4055 and the 1.4038 london low
Meta earnings tonight and oil/US-Iran headlines could move USD and CAD outside session hours
16:16 UTC
Rebound from London low, stalling below the NY spike · RSI 58 · price 1.40649
Higher lows since the London low; NY spike rejected, holding a 38-50% retrace.
A London slide stalled at the 1.4038 london low, just above the 1.4030 1-month low flagged in the digest as oil-led CAD strength paused. Early NY ran through the 1.4067 asian high to a 1.4082 spike high but was rejected. The pullback low at 1.4058 held near the 50% fib, and price is now pinned at the 38.2% retrace on the higher-low trendline.
Support: 1.40578, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40721, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the higher-low trendline and the 1.4058 pullback low exposes the 1.4038 london low
Close back above the 1.4067 asian high and 1.4072 lower high reopens the 1.4082 spike high
A break of the 1.4030 1-month low would resume the CAD-led decline
Meta earnings after the US close could shift the AI-driven USD tone
London low 1.4038, NY high 1.4082, now mid-range at 38.2% retrace.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a 1.4038 london low. The NY-open rally squeezed through the asian high to a 1.4082 session high, which was rejected inside an hour. Price is back under 1.4067, holding near the 38.2% retrace above the 1.4058 ny low, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 after London close.
Support: 1.40578, 1.40548, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40721, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.4067 and the 1.4072 lower high reopens the 1.4082 session high
Break of the 1.4058 ny low exposes fib 61.8 at 1.4055, then the london low at 1.4038
Meta earnings after the US close and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling below NY high · RSI 56 · price 1.40655
London false break below Asian range, NY higher low at 1.4058, capped at 1.4082.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.4038 london low, then NY reclaimed it and spiked to the 1.4082 ny high, where the move was rejected. The pullback held a higher low at 1.4058, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the rebound, and price now sits at the 38.2% level and the Asian range top near 1.4065. RSI(14) is neutral at 56, and the rebound runs against a firm-CAD, soft-USD backdrop.
Support: 1.4058, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4072, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4072 lower high retests the 1.4082 ny high; a break there extends the rising support structure
Failure to hold the 1.4058 higher low reopens the 1.4038 london low
Below 1.4038, the 1.4030 1m low (50% fib) is the next reference from the macro digest
Meta earnings after the US close could shift USD tone heading into Asia
15:31 UTC
Rebounding off session low, choppy after NY spike · RSI 60 · price 1.4069
NY broke above Asian range, rejected at 1.4082, higher low at 1.4058.
London pressed the pair to a session low at 1.4038 before a sharp NY-open spike broke the Asian high (1.4067) and rejected at a 1.4082 session high. The fade held at a 1.4058 swing low near the 50–61.8% fib, and price has reclaimed 1.4069, above the Asian high, a move that runs against the digest's soft-USD, firm-CAD backdrop on oil strength.
Support: 1.40672, 1.40578, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40816, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4067 Asian high turns the retest into a failed breakout
Break of the 1.4058 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4055 and the 1.4038 session low
Close above the 1.4082 session high opens the 1.4100 round number
Oil/Hormuz headlines and Meta Q3 earnings tonight could shift the USD and CAD legs
Higher lows from London low intact; false break above Asian high.
London sold through the Asian range low to a 1.4038 London low before the NY open spiked price to 1.4082, above the 1.4067 Asian high. That NY high was rejected and fully faded alongside the larger EIA crude draw and the firm-CAD backdrop. Price now sits on the 50% fib of the London-to-NY move at 1.4060, where it also retests rising support from the London low.
Support: 1.40599, 1.40492, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4049 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4038 London low
Reclaim of the 1.4067 Asian high reopens the 1.4082 NY high
Meta Q3 earnings tonight, an AI-sentiment test for USD, could shift this read; no scheduled US/CA data in the next 8h
False break above Asian range, price back inside near its low.
London set a 1.4038 session low before NY spiked through the asian high at 1.4067 to a 1.4082 ny high at 14:00 UTC. Price then gave back the whole move, completing a false break back into the Asian range as CAD stays firm on oil. Price now sits on the 50% retracement of the NY rally just above the asian low at 1.4056, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) about 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4050, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.4067 negates the false-break read and reopens the 1.4082 ny high
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4056 exposes the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4038 london low
Meta Q3 earnings after the NY close could shift USD sentiment; US jobless claims follow tomorrow at 12:30 UTC
London low at 1.4038 followed by higher lows; NY spike broke the Asian range high.
London sold the Asian range down to a 1.4038 London low. The first hour of NY then broke the 1.4067 Asian high and spiked to 1.4082 before a sharp rejection, and price is now retesting the Asian high from above with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s. The bounce runs against a CAD-firm tone tied to oil and BoC-hike pricing, so the breakout still lacks follow-through.
Support: 1.40672, 1.40599, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40816, 1.4100
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4067 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4060
Losing the higher-low line from the London low undoes the intraday recovery structure
A close above the 1.4082 spike high opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
Crude and Hormuz / US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver and could reverse the spike
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend after London low, impulse extended · RSI 71 · price 1.4076
Higher lows from 1.4038 london low, breakout above Asian range high.
London pushed USDCAD to a 1.4038 london low before a higher-low chain carried price back. A 15-pip impulse in the first hour of NY cleared the 1.4067 asian high with no scheduled data behind it, cutting against the five-day CAD-supportive slide. Price sits at the 1.4076 session high, RSI(14) near 71 and about 24 pips under the 1.4100 round number.
Support: 1.40672, 1.40617, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40762, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4067 asian high would reframe the NY breakout as a false break
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 1.4062 fib 38.2 retracement puts the 1.4038 london low back in play
Extension through the 1.4076 session high meets the 1.4100 round number, the base of the 1.4100–1.4129 zone where the CPI-day bounce stalled
Crude and Hormuz / US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Higher lows from London low, Asian range broken to upside.
London pushed USDCAD below the Asian range to the 1.4038 london low, just above the 1.4030 one-month low, before a chain of higher lows built into a 15-pip thrust in the first hour of NY. That bar cleared the 1.4067 asian high to a fresh day high at 1.4076 with no scheduled release behind it, and RSI(14) is now near 70.
Support: 1.4067, 1.4049, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4076, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4067 asian high would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the 1.4049 higher low breaks the rising support line from the london low
50% retrace of the london low to day high leg sits near 1.4057
1.4100 round number is the next reference above the day high
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines, plus Meta Q3 earnings later today, could reverse this NY-session move
13:46 UTC
Intraday recovery after London sell-off · RSI 55 · price 1.4055
Higher-low chain from 1.4038 session low, retesting broken Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4056 and printed a 1.4038 session low. Price has climbed back into 1.4056 through a higher-low chain from late London into the NY session; that level is also the 61.8% fib of the 1.4067–1.4038 drop. RSI(14) sits near 55, ATR(14) is about 5 pips, and soft USD plus firm oil keep the 1.4030 1-month low close by.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 asian low puts price inside the Asian range, with the 1.4067 asian high next
Rejection at 1.4056 and a break of the 1.4044 higher low and rising trendline reopens the 1.4038 session low
Loss of 1.4038 exposes the 1.4030 1-month low flagged as broader USD/CAD support
Meta Q3 earnings later today and oil / US-Iran headlines could shift USD and CAD tone
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective bounce in early NY · RSI 49 · price 1.40521
London broke below the Asian range; higher lows off 1.4038 into broken Asia low.
London took out the Asia low at 1.4056 and extended to a 1.4038 london low as oil kept CAD firm. Early NY has built a higher low at 1.4047 and is retesting the broken asia low near the 61.8% fib, with supply capping there so far and the lower-high line from the 1.4062 london high intact.
Support: 1.40474, 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40555, 1.40616, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4056 asia low puts price back inside the Asian range, with 1.4062 london high and 1.4067 asia high next
Break below the 1.4047 higher low breaks the rising support line and reopens 1.4038 london low
Failure to hold 1.4038 exposes the 1.4032 prior low, just above the 1.4030 one-month low
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main CAD driver; Meta earnings tonight are a USD risk-sentiment risk
13:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound testing broken range · RSI 49 · price 1.40521
Asian range broken lower in London; higher lows off the London low in NY.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4056 and extended to the London low at 1.4038 as oil-backed CAD strength kept the slide going. NY has built a chain of higher lows back to the 50% retrace near 1.4053. The NY high at 1.4055 stalled just under the broken Asian low, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace.
Support: 1.40474, 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4056 (asian low / 61.8%) reclaims the range and opens the asian high at 1.4067
Break of the 1.4047 higher low breaks the NY rebound line and exposes the london low at 1.4038
Loss of 1.4038 brings the prior low at 1.4032 and the 1.4030 one-month low into play
Meta Q3 earnings tonight and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday down leg, early NY rebound · RSI 48 · price 1.40501
London broke below Asian range; higher lows since 1.4038.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4056 and ran to a 1.4038 London low as oil-backed CAD firmness extended the slide. Early NY is building higher lows at 1.4043 and 1.4044 into the 1.4052 micro high, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop.
Support: 1.40441, 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4052 micro high puts the broken Asian low at 1.4056 in play as a retest.
Failure to hold the 1.4044 higher low exposes the 1.4038 London low, then the 1.4032 prior low from yesterday's NY session.
Reclaim of the 1.4067 Asian high invalidates the London range-break read.
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines remain the swing factor for CAD during NY hours.
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke below the Asian range.
London broke below the 1.4056 Asian low and printed a session low at 1.4038, extending CAD's oil-backed firmness. The bounce was rejected twice at 1.4050, near the 61.8% of the London leg and under the descending trendline, as NY opens.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4056
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4050 bounce high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.4056 Asian low back into play
Failure to hold the 1.4038 session low exposes yesterday's 1.4032 prior low, just above the 1.4030 one-month low in the digest
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines during NY hours are the main swing factor for CAD
London broke the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range, from the Asian low to the Asian high, and the London leg ran to a 1.4038 session low on a chain of lower highs, in line with the oil-driven CAD bid. The rebound off that low is stalling at the 50% retrace and descending trendline near 1.4050 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) at 42 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4056, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure under the 1.4038 session low exposes the 1.4032 prior NY low and the 1.4030 one-month low
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US–Iran headlines, plus Meta earnings risk tone, could shift this read
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs into a 1.4038 low, now retesting 1.4050.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range and printed a sequence of lower highs into a 1.4038 session low, in line with firm CAD on bid crude and BoC hike pricing. The late-London bounce stalled at the 1.4050 retest zone, which lines up with the 50% of the London leg and the lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) sits at 42 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4056, 1.4067
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4056 lower high breaks the London lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4038 session low exposes the 1.4032 prior low and the 1.4030 support
NY open liquidity and US-Iran or crude headlines could reprice the CAD leg; no scheduled data in the next 8h
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending through London · RSI 30 · price 1.40413
Lower highs since the London open, trading below the broken Asian range.
London broke below the 1.4056 Asian range low and has printed lower highs along a falling trendline since. The 10:45 UTC leg made a 1.4038 session low as CAD stayed firm on oil and BoC hike pricing. RSI(14) is near 30 with price under both EMAs, and the 1.4032 prior low (one-month low area) sits just beneath.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40558, 1.40672
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4032 prior low prints a fresh one-month low
M15 close back above the 1.4050 london shelf invalidates the falling trendline read
Reclaiming the 1.4056 lower high reopens the 1.4067 asian high (fib 61.8% zone)
US-Iran and crude headlines into the NY open could materially shift this read; no scheduled data in the next 8h
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high chain intact.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range and has printed lower highs since the open, with the five-day slide extending to a 1.4038 session low as CAD stays firm on oil and BoC hike pricing. Price is late in the London session, sitting just above yesterday's NY-open prior low at 1.4032 and the 1.4030 one-month low, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 1.4049 broken low overhead.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4032 prior low and the 1.4030 one-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4049 broken low breaks the lower-highs trendline and weakens the downtrend read
Reclaim of the Asian low at 1.4056 puts price back inside the Asian range and turns the break into a false break
NY open in about 2.5h and US-Iran or oil headlines could materially shift this read
Asian high at 1.4067 caps the fib retracement of the Asian high-to-session low leg
11:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into London · RSI 29 · price 1.40407
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range low.
London broke below the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range and has printed a chain of lower highs. The latest leg cut through the 1.4050 broken shelf to a 1.4038 session low, with RSI(14) near 29. Price now sits just above yesterday's NY prior low at 1.4032 and the 1.4030 one-month low, as firm crude and BoC hike pricing keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.40382, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4032 prior low and the 1.4030 one-month low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the 1.4050 broken shelf and the London lower-highs trendline neutralises the intraday downtrend read
A reclaim of the 1.4056 Asian low, at the 61.8% of the London decline fib, puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 1.4067 Asian high
No scheduled US or CAD data in the next 8h, so US-Iran headlines moving crude are the main intraday risk to this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 29 · price 1.40462
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain since London open.
London broke the 1.4056 Asian low and has stepped lower since. The prior London low at 1.4050 gave way, and price is now pressing 1.4046 with RSI(14) near 29, below both EMAs, as CAD stays firm on oil and BoC hike pricing. Tuesday's 1.4043 swing low is the nearest support, and Tuesday's 1.4032 prior low sits beneath it near the 1.4030 one-month low.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4056
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4050 london low and the lower highs trendline breaks the London LH/LL sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4056 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 1.4032 prior low / 1.4030 one-month low
NY open in ~1.5h with no scheduled data; US-Iran and oil headlines remain the live driver
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 1.40495
Asian range broken lower, lower-high sequence pressing session low.
London open broke below the 1.4056 Asian low and has since printed a sequence of lower highs under a falling trendline, now pressing the 1.4049 session low with RSI(14) near 34. The move fits the CAD-firm, oil-supported tone behind the five-day slide. The 1.4043 swing low and the 1.4032 Tue low from NY hours sit below.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4056 asian low breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4049 session low exposes the 1.4043 swing low, then the 1.4032 tue low near the one-month low
Recovery into the 1.4067 asian high would negate the London range break
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; US-Iran / oil headlines remain the live risk into NY open
Lower highs since Asia, London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the 1.4056 Asian low and printed a 1.4049 London low at the 50% retracement of Tuesday's 1.4032–1.4067 rebound. Price is compressing in a 6-pip band under a line of lower highs from the 1.4067 Asian high, with firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing keeping the five-day slide intact.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low and the lower-highs trendline negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 1.4049 London low exposes the 1.4032 Tuesday low, near the one-month low
Asian high at 1.4067 caps the window; a return there unwinds the London range break entirely
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines into NY session could move crude and CAD sharply; no scheduled data in the next 8h
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs, basing above the session low.
London opened with a range break below the 1.4056 Asian low and printed a session low at 1.4049, extending the CAD firmness tied to bid crude and BoC hike pricing. Since then price has compressed in a 6-pip band under the broken Asian low, with lower highs capping each bounce and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 asian low negates the London range break and reopens the 1.4067 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4049 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward Tuesday's 1.4032 prior low
Break of the lower highs trendline near 1.4055 marks a pause in the London drop; the 38.2% retrace of the asia-london drop sits at 1.4056
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines driving crude can move CAD abruptly within this session
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.40542
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high/lower-low chain, shallow bounce off session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4056 and printed a session low at 1.4049, extending the lower-highs sequence from the 1.4067 Asian high as CAD stays firm on oil and BoC hike pricing. Price is now holding just under the broken asian low, with RSI(14) near 40 and only a ~27% retracement of the Asia-to-London drop so far.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 1.4049 session low confirms another lower-low, with yesterday's 1.4032 prior low the next reference
Close above the 1.4067 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; US-Iran/Hormuz oil headlines are the main risk to this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 31 · price 1.40519
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into mid-London.
London broke the 1.4056 Asian low and has stepped down in lower highs from 1.4060 to a 1.4049 session low. This is consistent with firm CAD on bid crude and BoC hike pricing. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not oversold, and ranges are tight at about 4 pips per bar.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40451, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40604
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low negates the range break
Break of the 1.4060 lower high and the lower-highs trendline ends the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 1.4049 session low exposes the 1.4045 swing low, then yesterday's 1.4032 prior low near the one-month low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines into the NY session could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open, trading below the Asian range.
Mid-London, the pair slipped below the 1.4056 Asian low and has carved a lower-high chain into the 1.4050 area, with the session low at 1.4049. RSI(14) sits near 33, soft but not oversold, as CAD stays firm on oil and BoC-hike pricing. Yesterday's NY-open prior low at 1.4032 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 asian low reclaims the Asian range and voids the break
Failure to hold the 1.4049 session low exposes the 1.4032 prior low
A close above the lower-high trendline signals the London leg is stalling
Only a recovery through the 1.4067 asian high resets the intraday downtrend read
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor; no scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h
09:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 32 · price 1.40513
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain into the London low.
London opened by breaking below the Asian low at 1.4056 and has printed lower highs into a 1.4049 London low, with RSI(14) near 32 and price under both EMAs. Firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing frames the slide, with yesterday's NY swing low at 1.4032 sitting just above the 1.4030 one-month low flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4049 London low exposes the 1.4032 swing low and the 1.4030 area
A close above the lower-highs trendline ends the London sell-off structure
Recovery through the 1.4067 Asian high would erase the session's downside break
US-Iran and oil headlines remain the main driver, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
08:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early London · RSI 35 · price 1.40532
Lower highs from Asian high, Asian range low broken.
London broke the Asian low at 1.40561 and printed a london low at 1.40504. Price is stalling just under that old range floor, with RSI(14) near 35 and lower highs intact from the 1.40672 Asian high. CAD stays firm on oil and BoC hike pricing, and yesterday's NY low at 1.40319 sits just above the 1.4030 one-month-low area.
Support: 1.40504, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.40561 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the break
Failure to hold 1.40504 london low exposes yesterday's ny low at 1.40319
A push through the lower highs line toward the 1.40672 asian high would negate the intraday downtrend
Oil moves on US-Iran or Hormuz headlines could swing CAD sharply
London broke below the Asian range low, now retesting it from just above.
Asia held a 1.4056–1.4067 range under a descending trendline of lower highs. The London open broke the asian low and printed a 1.4050 london low near the 50% retrace of yesterday's NY rally, and price is now back at 1.4056. RSI(14) ~38 and ATR under 4 pips point to a quiet tape, with CAD supported by firm oil.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40504, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40616, 1.40672
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.4062 and the descending trendline would neutralise the London breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4050 london low opens the prior low at 1.4032, close to the 1.4030 one-month low
Asia high at 1.4067 is the top of the session range; a break would resume the NY rally structure
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor
08:16 UTC
Short-term down, London selling · RSI 35 · price 1.40546
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower highs since 00:15 UTC.
London open dropped below the Asian low at 1.4056 and printed a session low at 1.4050, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 35. Each bounce since the 1.4067 Asian high has topped lower, while CAD stays firm on oil strength and hawkish BoC pricing.
Support: 1.40504, 1.40451, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40561, 1.40643, 1.40672
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4056 Asian low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4050 session low exposes the 1.4045 swing low and the 1.4032 prev day low near the 1.4030 Fibo
Close above the 1.4064 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil swings on US-Iran headlines could shift this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 1.40546
London broke below the Asian range low; price is holding just above the London low.
London open pushed USD/CAD through the 1.4056 Asian low to a 1.4050 London low, near the 50% retrace of the NY low–Asian high leg, after a run of lower highs from 1.4067 through Asia. RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not stretched, and oil-driven CAD firmness from the digest fits the drift. Yesterday's NY low at 1.4032 sits just above the 1.4030 one-month low.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4056 Asian low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4050 London low exposes the 1.4032 NY low and the 1.4030 one-month low
Close above the 1.4067 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Oil and US-Iran deal headlines could materially shift this read, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
07:46 UTC
Flat, range-bound after NY rebound · RSI 46 · price 1.4059
Tight overnight range 1.4056–1.4067, early London probe of the Asian low reclaimed.
USDCAD has compressed into a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range after Tuesday's NY bounce off the 1.4032 prior low, near the 1.4030 one-month low, with oil-backed CAD keeping rallies shallow. Early London dipped just under the asian low to 1.4056 and reclaimed it. Price is pinned below a flat EMA20/50 and the 1.4062 london high, RSI(14) neutral at 46, ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4062, 1.4067
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4056 asian low and the 38.2% fib near 1.4054 exposes the 1.4043 ny base, then the 1.4032 prior low
Break above the 1.4062 london high and 1.4067 asian high ends the range read
No USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor
07:16 UTC
Flat, range-bound after NY recovery · RSI 47 · price 1.40607
Asian range 1.4056–1.4067 intact; higher low held at 1.4057.
USDCAD is coiling inside an 11-pip Asian range (1.4056–1.4067) after Tuesday's rebound from the NY low at 1.4032. The pre-London dip stalled at 1.4057, just above the asian low. RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 3 pips show compression into the London open, with CAD steady near one-month highs on firm oil.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40732
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4032 ny low, with the 38.2% fib of the ny low–asian high leg at 1.4054 in between
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high opens the prior high at 1.4073
US-Iran/Hormuz headlines driving oil are the main intraday swing risk; no scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h
07:02 UTC
Sideways, compressing after rebound off lows · RSI 47 · price 1.40607
Tight Asian range above a rising-lows sequence from the 1.4032 low.
London opens with USDCAD inside an 11-pip Asian range (1.4056–1.4067). The pair is holding near the 23.6% recovery fib of the rebound from Tuesday's 1.4032 prior low, with firm oil keeping CAD supported. Rising lows from that low remain intact, while RSI(14) near 47, an ATR of about 3 pips and price hugging the EMAs reflect compressed conditions.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4073
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4056 asian low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4043 ny swing low, then the 1.4032 prior low.
A close above the 1.4067 asian high opens a retest of Tuesday's 1.4073 prior high.
The 50% recovery fib near 1.4050 overlaps the 1.4040–1.4050 support area; a break of it would undo most of the rebound.
US-Iran/Hormuz headlines moving oil are the main catalyst, with no scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h.
06:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower within the Asian range · RSI 41 · price 1.40576
Asian range 1.4056–1.4067 with stepping-down highs; price at the range floor.
Into London open, price is pressing the Asian low at 1.4056 after Asia highs stepped down from 1.4067 to a lower high at 1.4064, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR at roughly 2.6 pips. This sits within the rebound from yesterday's 1.4032 NY low, as CAD's oil-driven gains stalled near one-month highs.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40451, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40643, 1.40672, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4045 london low, then the 1.4032 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.4064 lower high and the descending Asia trendline puts the 1.4067 asian high back in play, with the 1.4081 prior high above
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main intraday CAD driver; no scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h
A London break of the Asian range would set the session direction; a fall below the 38.2% retrace of the rebound from the NY low deepens the pullback
06:16 UTC
Flat, recovering from NY low · RSI 44 · price 1.4060
Tight Asian range 1.4056–1.4067, rising lows off 1.4032.
The 1.4032 NY low has been reclaimed, and price is now compressing in a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range. That range sits around the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 1.4081–1.4032 drop, with rising lows intact. Oil-supported CAD, per the digest, kept rallies capped below the asian high, and with ATR near 2.6 pips there is no setup in play ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 asian low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.4032 ny low
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high clears the 61.8% fib zone and opens the 1.4081 prior high
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver and could break the Asian range at London open
06:02 UTC
Rebound stalled, flat into London · RSI 45 · price 1.4060
Tight Asian range after bounce off prior swing low.
Tuesday's NY-open flush to the 1.4032 swing low bounced. The rebound has stalled around the 61.8% fib of the prior-day drop (~1.4062), with CAD held firm by oil. Asia has carved a tight 1.4056–1.4067 range, and price sits mid-range at 1.4060 ahead of London open; RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR is compressed at ~2.4 pips.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4081
What it said to watch
London break of the Asian range: a close above the 1.4067 asian high opens the 1.4081 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4056 asian low exposes the 1.4043 ny range low, then the 1.4032 swing low
US-Iran / Hormuz and oil headlines remain the main driver, with no scheduled CAD or USD data in the next 8h
05:46 UTC
Flat, recovering from the early-NY low · RSI 55 · price 1.4062
Tight Asian range 1.4056–1.4067 above a higher-low base.
Tuesday's London-NY slide, driven by US-Iran deal hopes that softened USD, bottomed at the 1.4032 day low early in NY. The recovery from 1.4032 has stalled inside a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range, with price pinned on both EMAs, RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) compressed to about 2.4 pips into late Asia.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4081, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4067 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.4081 london high in play, then the 1.4100 round number.
Loss of the 1.4056 asian low and the 23.6% retrace of the recovery from 1.4032 exposes the 1.4043 ny base.
Failure to hold the 1.4043 ny base opens a retest of the 1.4032 day low.
US-Iran and Hormuz headlines moving oil can expand the compressed range at the London open.
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims are the next scheduled data risk.
05:31 UTC
Flat after NY rebound, compressing · RSI 47 · price 1.40612
Tight Asian range 1.4056–1.4067 holding above rising lows from the 1.4032 day low.
Late Asia session with price coiling mid-range inside a narrow 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range, after NY rebounded off the 1.4032 day low that capped the London-led slide from the 1.4081 London high. A shallow pullback from the 1.4067 Asian high stalled near the 38.2% fib of the rebound. RSI(14) ~47 and ATR(14) ~2.6 pips show the compression, with firm oil and priced BoC hike bets keeping CAD supported.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
London open break of the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range sets the next intraday leg
M15 close below the 1.4056 asian low exposes the rising lows near 1.4043 and the 1.4032 day low
Close above the 1.4067 asian high opens the path back toward the 1.4081 london high
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines moving WTI could break the range at any point
05:16 UTC
Sideways after rebound from NY low · RSI 49 · price 1.40634
Higher lows off 1.4032, compressing inside a tight Asian range.
After the slide to a 1.4032 NY low, USDCAD has printed higher lows. It is now coiling inside an 11-pip Asian range (asian low 1.4056, asian high 1.4067) ahead of the London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 49. The dollar firmed modestly in Asia on oil-led inflation worries, which held the 1.4056 low above the 38.2% fib of the rebound, but it lacked the impulse to break the range top.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4067 asian high breaks the range and opens the prior high at 1.4081, then the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.4056 asian low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.4043 swing low and the 1.4032 NY low
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines moving WTI could break the Asian range at London open
ATR near 2.7 pips reflects Asia compression; expect expansion once London liquidity arrives
Late Asia session, price compressed inside a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range and sitting at the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's London-NY slide from the 1.4081 london high to the 1.4032 swing low. Higher lows are intact on the rebound, but ATR is down to ~2.6 pips as oil-driven CAD support and firm USD offset each other.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high breaks the range and puts the 1.4081 london high in view
Loss of the 1.4056 asian low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 1.4032 swing low
London open is the likely range-expansion window after a compressed Asia session
Oil and US-Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main unscheduled CAD driver. No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h
04:46 UTC
Down leg exhausted, flat consolidation · RSI 49 · price 1.40614
Tight Asian range after London-NY selloff and partial rebound.
Yesterday's London-NY slide from the 1.4081 prior high bottomed at the 1.4032 swing low as softer US yields and oil-linked CAD demand weighed. The rebound has stalled into an 11-pip Asian range (1.4056–1.4067), with closes pinned around the fib 61.8 at 1.4062. RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and ATR is compressed near 2.8 pips heading into London open.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40624, 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
London open break of the 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range sets the next intraday leg
Loss of the asian low at 1.4056 (50% retrace) exposes the 1.4032 swing low and breaks the higher-lows line
Clearance of the asian high at 1.4067 reopens the 1.4081 prior high
US-Iran headlines moving oil remain a live wildcard for CAD through the session
Tight Asian range 1.4056–1.4067, lower highs inside.
NY rebounded from the 1.4032 prior low as the softer USD tone stalled the slide. Late Asia now holds a tight 1.4056–1.4067 range with lower highs off the Asian high, price pressing the asian low just under EMA20, RSI(14) near 45, ATR ~2.7 pips.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40496, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.4056 asian low exposes the fib 50% near 1.4050 and the 1.4032 prior low
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.4081 prior high next
London open and US-Iran / oil headlines could reset the Asian range
04:16 UTC
Recovered from NY low, flat in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.40603
Asian range 1.4056–1.4067 with lower highs off the range top.
The London selloff, fed by the Iran-deal oil slide and soft US housing data, ran from the 1.4083 prior high to a 1.4032 NY low. Price then rebounded and has spent Asia inside a 1.4056–1.4067 range. Late in the Asian session, lower highs are capping below the 1.4067 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 41 and price sitting on flat EMAs and holding the 23.6% retracement around 1.4059.
Support: 1.40561, 1.4043, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40829
What it said to watch
A London-open break below the 1.4056 Asian low exposes the 1.4043 ny range low, then the 1.4032 ny low
A close above the asian lower highs line and the 1.4067 Asian high reopens the path toward the 1.4083 prior high
US-Iran headlines and oil swings can move this pair suddenly in any session
04:02 UTC
Recovering from NY low, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.40603
Higher lows since NY low, tight Asian range.
USD/CAD slid through London and NY to a 1.4032 NY low as USD softened on US-Iran deal hopes, then recovered on a series of higher lows. Late in the Asia session, price sits mid-range inside a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range, just under flat EMAs, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4083
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 Asian low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.4043 higher low
Loss of the 1.4032 NY low would mark fresh monthly lows, below the 1.4040 zone flagged in the CAD read
M15 close above the 1.4067 Asian high opens the 1.4083 prior high from early London
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US-Iran and Hormuz headlines via oil are the main swing factor for this read
The London and NY slide, driven by oil-led CAD strength and softer US yields, bottomed at the 1.4032 NY low. Price has since retraced about 35 pips and is now compressed in a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian range, holding above the fib 38.2 of that recovery, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40537, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813, 1.40843
What it said to watch
London open break of the Asian high at 1.4067 exposes the 1.4081 London high and the 1.4084 prior high
M15 close below the 1.4056 Asian low and the 1.4054 fib 38.2 reopens the 1.4032 NY low
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines moving oil could break the Asian range before London
03:31 UTC
Recovering from NY low, stalling in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.40609
Higher lows off 1.4032, tight Asian range 1.4056–1.4067.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4087 prior high through London to a 1.4032 NY low as a softer USD on Iran-deal hopes met firm CAD on BoC hike pricing. The rebound has built higher lows but stalled at the 61.8% retrace near the 1.4067 asian high. Price is now mid-range at 1.4061 in a 1.4056–1.4067 Asian box, with RSI 45 and ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4087
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4067 asian high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 1.4087 prior high
Loss of 1.4056 asian low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.4043 swing low, then the 1.4032 ny low
London open (07:00 UTC) typically expands this tight Asian range
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US-Iran and Hormuz headlines via oil are the main swing factor
03:16 UTC
Rebound from NY low, stalling below Asian high · RSI 46 · price 1.40614
Higher lows off 1.4032; tight Asian range 1.4056–1.4067.
The London-NY slide bottomed at the 1.4032 NY low on the NY open. Price then built a higher-low sequence through the 1.4043 ny pivot and stalled at the 1.4067 Asian high, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the decline. Late Asia is holding inside a 1.4056–1.4067 range on rising support, with RSI(14) near 46 and CAD still firm on BoC hike pricing and oil.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40431, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40871
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens 1.4087 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4056 asian low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.4043 ny pivot, then the 1.4032 ny low
London open in ~4h is the likely catalyst out of the Asian range; US-Iran and oil headlines can swing it
03:02 UTC
Recovery from NY low, stalling in tight Asian range · RSI 46 · price 1.40614
Higher lows off 1.4032; Asian range 1.4056–1.4067 capping at 61.8% fib.
The London-NY slide on softer USD (Iran-deal hopes, weak housing data) bottomed at the 1.4032 NY low right after the NY open. The rebound held a rising trendline and has stalled at the 61.8% fib near the 1.4067 Asian high. Late Asia session, price sits mid-range at 1.4061, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.40561, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813, 1.40871
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4067 Asian high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.4081 swing high, then the 1.4087 window high
Break below the 1.4056 Asian low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4043 NY pivot and the 1.4032 NY low
London open can expand the compressed Asian range
US-Iran headlines on the Hormuz timeline and oil moves can shift this read quickly
02:46 UTC
Recovery from NY low, stalling below Asian high · RSI 42 · price 1.40592
Higher-low chain from 1.4032 intact; Asian dip held 1.4056.
USDCAD has recovered from the 1.4032 day low set in the first hour of NY, with CAD still firm on BoC hike pricing and oil. Since then it has carved higher lows. The Asian session capped at the 1.4067 asian high, and the 02:00 UTC dip retested the 1.4056 asian low. Price now sits on the 23.6% recovery fib, just under EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4072
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4056 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4043 ny range low
Loss of 1.4043 puts the 1.4032 day low back in play
Close above the 1.4067 asian high reopens the 1.4072 london break level
US-Iran and oil headlines are unscheduled risk for CAD this session
02:31 UTC
Recovery from NY low stalling, slipping back · RSI 41 · price 1.40581
Asian range 1.4056–1.4067, lower highs since 00:15 UTC.
The London-NY slide from the 1.4092 prior high bottomed at the 1.4032 NY low as softer USD and firm oil-backed CAD drove the move. The rebound stalled at the 1.4067 Asian high, just under the 61.8% fib. Mid-Asia, price has slipped back to the 1.4056 Asian low, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 Asian low ends the Asian range and exposes the 1.4032 NY low
Recovery through the 1.4067 Asian high and the 61.8% fib reopens the 1.4092 prior high
US-Iran and oil headlines into the London open are the main unscheduled driver
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fri Canada Retail Sales come later
02:16 UTC
Recovering from NY low, stalling in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.40629
Higher lows off 1.4032, tight Asian range 1.4057–1.4067.
London broke below the prior Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 1.4032 NY low on firm CAD and a softer USD, then a higher-low chain off that low (1.4043 higher low). The current Asian session holds a tight 1.4057–1.4067 range, with price pinned to EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.40567, 1.40431, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high extends the recovery toward the 1.4081 breakdown level
Loss of the 1.4057 asian low exposes the 1.4054 38.2% retrace of the NY low–asian high leg, then the 1.4043 higher low
Break of the 1.4032 ny low resumes the prior session's downtrend
No scheduled data in the next 8h. US-Iran and oil headlines remain the unscheduled risk for this read
02:02 UTC
Recovery off day low, stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.40629
Higher lows off 1.4032, tight Asian range 1.4061–1.4067.
London and the first hour of NY extended the slide to a 1.4032 day low as softer yields and firm oil kept USD/CAD heavy. Since then the pair has built higher lows along a rising trendline, from 1.4043 to the 1.4056 NY base and now 1.4061. Early Asia is pinned in a 6-pip 1.4061–1.4067 band between the asian low and asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.40613, 1.40555, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4067 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.4081 london pivot, the last bounce high before the London-open breakdown
Loss of the 1.4061 asian low puts the 1.4056 ny base and the rising trendline in play; a break there ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4032 day low
Iran / Hormuz headlines can move oil and jolt the pair out of the thin Asian range; no scheduled data in the next 8h
01:46 UTC
Recovery off NY low, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 1.40631
Higher lows from 1.4032, tight Asian range at 50% retrace.
The slide from the 1.4094 prior high bottomed at the 1.4032 day low at the NY open, on a soft USD and an oil-backed CAD bid. Price has since recovered into a 6-pip Asian range (1.4061–1.4067) sitting on the 50% retracement of that decline. RSI(14) near 54 and ATR ~2.5 pips show compressed, directionless conditions.
Support: 1.40613, 1.40554, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40705, 1.40944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4067 Asian high and 61.8% fib at 1.4070 extends the recovery, opening the path toward the 1.4094 prior high
Loss of the 1.4061 Asian low exposes the 1.4055 pullback low; a break there ends the higher-low chain off the day low
Retest of the 1.4032 day low would put the one-month lows back in focus
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines via oil can move CAD during Asian hours, ahead of Thu US claims and Fri Canada retail sales
Lower low at 1.4032 in NY, then higher lows into a tight Asian range.
Yesterday's London-NY drop ran from the 1.4094 prior high to the 1.4032 NY low on a soft USD tied to US-Iran deal hopes. The recovery has stalled at the 50% retrace, and the Asia session is boxed between the 1.4057 asian low and the 1.4067 asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR is under 3 pips, consistent with thin Asia conditions.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4078, 1.4094
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4057 asian low reopens the 1.4043 ny pivot and the 1.4032 ny low
Close above the 1.4067 asian high and the 50% retrace exposes the 1.4078 london break, then the 1.4094 prior high
Iran deal or Hormuz headlines feeding through oil can break the Asian range outside data hours
01:16 UTC
Corrective bounce after London selloff, stalling · RSI 51 · price 1.40623
Higher lows off NY low, capped at Asian high.
London sold USDCAD from 1.4094 to a 1.4032 day low early in NY hours as oil strength, BoC hike bets and soft US housing data weighed on the pair. Since then a chain of rising lows off the NY base at 1.4043 has retraced to the 50% fib of the selloff. Asia is fading from its 1.4067 Asian high while holding above the 1.4057 Asian low.
Support: 1.40567, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40705, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4067 Asian high and 61.8% fib at 1.4071 opens the London pivot at 1.4081
Break of the 1.4057 Asian low and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the ny base at 1.4043 and the 1.4032 day low
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines moving oil could shift this read in thin Asia trade
01:03 UTC
Recovery from day low, stalling in Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.40623
Tight Asian range above NY base.
The London-NY selloff, driven by CAD strength on oil and BoC hike bets plus a softer USD, bottomed at the 1.4032 day low around the NY open. Price has since retraced about 70% of the drop from the 1.4081 swing high. Early Asia is holding a 10-pip range between the 1.4057 asian low and the 1.4067 asian high, and the asian uptrend line gave way over the last two bars; RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 1.40567, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.40813
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4057 asian low brings the 1.4043 ny base and the 38.2–50% fib zone back into focus
M15 close above the 1.4067 asian high reopens the 1.4081 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4032 day low confirms a fresh lower-low
Iran/Hormuz headlines feeding through oil can jolt CAD in thin Asia liquidity
00:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 69 · price 1.40662
Higher-low grind through Asia, pressing NY high.
CAD strength on BoC hike bets, firm oil and a softer USD drove the slide to the 1.4032 day low early in the NY session. Price has since ground higher through the Asia session in a tight higher-low chain off the 1.4056 asian low along the asia trendline, now retesting the 1.4064 ny high around the 50% retrace. ATR is compressed under 3 pips, and the 61.8% fib at 1.4071 is the next level overhead.
Support: 1.40644, 1.40564, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40711, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4071 opens the 1.4081 swing high
Break of the asia trendline and a close back below the 1.4064 ny high returns price to the prior NY range
Failure to hold the 1.4056 asian low exposes the 1.4032 day low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Iran/Hormuz and oil headlines are the main swing factor for this read
00:31 UTC
Recovering from day low, slow grind higher · RSI 66 · price 1.40663
Higher lows along a rising trendline since the 1.4032 NY low.
Tuesday's slide on oil strength and BoC hike bets bottomed at the 1.4032 day low early in NY. Since then a rising trendline of higher lows has lifted price into the Asian session, where it sits on the 50% fib of the decline with the Asia high at 1.4067. The 61.8% fib near 1.4071 overlaps the London-open breakdown area and caps price for now.
Support: 1.40637, 1.40554, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40668, 1.4071
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4071 clears the London-open breakdown zone
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4055 swing low returns focus to the 1.4032 day low
Iran deal or Hormuz headlines via oil can jolt CAD in thin Asian trade
Higher lows off 1.4032 day low, retracing London-NY selloff.
London selling broke the prior Asian low near 1.4073 and extended into a 1.4032 day low early in the NY session, with CAD bid on oil strength, BoC hike pricing and softer US yields. The day low was rejected quickly. Late NY and the early Asia session have built higher lows off the 1.4055 NY range low, lifting price to 1.4067 at the 50% retracement with RSI(14) near 71 on a thin 2.6-pip ATR.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40726, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4073 (61.8% fib and prior Asian low) opens the prior pivot at 1.4081
Slip back below the 1.4055 NY range low undercuts the rising support and returns focus to the 1.4043 swing low
Break of the 1.4032 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
US-Iran deal or Hormuz headlines moving oil can override the thin Asia structure
Higher lows off 1.4032 session low, below Asian low.
London broke below the 1.4073 Asian low and NY extended the drop to a 1.4032 session low as CAD stayed bid on BoC hike bets and a softer USD. Since then a higher-low chain has rebuilt price to 1.4067 in thin post-rollover Asia trade, above the 50% retrace of the 1.4098–1.4032 drop and just under the Asian low. RSI(14) is near 72.
Support: 1.40644, 1.40565, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40725, 1.40813, 1.40978
What it said to watch
Asian low at 1.4073, which aligns with the 61.8% retrace, is the area to watch for rejection or break. A close above it targets the 1.4081 breakdown pt.
Failure to hold the 1.4064 prior high, then a break of the 1.4057 swing low and the higher-low trendline, undoes the recovery.
US-Iran and oil headlines can reprice CAD quickly. No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h.
A move back through the 1.4032 session low reopens one-month lows.