Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection; Monday ranging 1.4070–1.4112.
H1 has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session rejection at 1.4299, with the friday low at 1.4134 giving way and Monday opening on a gap lower. A slide to the week low at 1.4070 into London was reversed on the soft Canadian CPI miss, but the pop stalled at the 1.4112 cpi high and price now sits flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 46 and EMA(50) overhead.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.4134, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4112 cpi high and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the friday low at 1.4134
Failure to hold the week low at 1.4070 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery back above the broken 1.42 floor would undo the post-rejection downtrend read
Canada retail sales and US PMIs on Friday could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near 1.4100 · RSI 46 · price 1.4109
Lower highs from 1.4299; post-CPI compression 1.4083–1.4112.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session rejection at 1.4299. It broke the 1.4200 floor and gapped lower into Monday's weekly open at 1.4114. Monday's slide into the London open bottomed at the 1.4070 Monday low, then the soft Canadian CPI miss (3.1% vs 3.2%) sparked a pop to 1.4112. Since then price has compressed above the 1.4083 CPI dip low, a hair above EMA(20) near 1.4107 but below EMA(50) near 1.4132, with RSI(14) flat around 46.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4114, 1.4134, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4114 weekly open puts the 1.4124 23.6% retracement of the Wed high–Mon low fib and the 1.4134 Friday low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4083 CPI dip low and the post-CPI higher lows line exposes the 1.4070 Monday low and 1.4075 support
Only a recovery toward the 1.4200 broken floor would break the lower-high sequence from 1.4299
US tech-equity tone and Tuesday's US housing and ADP data (12:15–14:00 UTC) could break the compression
Canada retail sales and US PMIs on Fri Oct 23 are the main scheduled risk for this structure
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak; Monday higher low at 1.4083.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4299. Supply has capped each bounce, the 1.4200 broken floor gave way Thursday, and Monday gapped open at 1.4114, below the 1.4134 friday low. The London-session slide found a monday low at 1.4070 before the soft Canadian CPI print popped the pair back above 1.4100. A NY-session cpi pullback held 1.4083, and price is now pressing the weekly open and the lower-highs line, above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4114, 1.4134, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4134 friday low fills the weekend gap and breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4083 cpi pullback low re-exposes the 1.4070 monday low
Reclaim of the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop near 1.4158 brings the 1.4200 broken floor into view
US housing starts, permits and ADP Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday, bouncing off week low · RSI 56 · price 1.41111
Lower highs from 1.4299; post-CPI higher low testing the trendline.
Lower highs have held since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection, and Monday opened on a gap down below Friday's 1.4136 prior close. The London session extended to a 1.4070 week low before the soft Canada CPI miss lifted the pair to a 1.4112 cpi high. A post-CPI higher low at 1.4083 has since supported a slow NY grind back to that high and the lower-high trendline, with price just above EMA(20) near 1.4107 and EMA(50) around 1.4130 overhead.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4158
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4134 prior close fills the weekend gap and breaks the lower-high trendline
Rejection at the 1.4112 cpi high, followed by a break of the 1.4083 higher low, re-exposes the 1.4070 week low
Reclaiming 1.4158 (fib 38.2 of the 1.4299–1.4070 drop) would put the 1.4200 broken floor back in focus
Tuesday's US housing starts and permits (12:30 UTC) could shift USD tone, with Friday's Canada retail sales and US PMIs the larger risk
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4299 top; basing above 1.4070.
Lower highs have defined the window since Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299 faded. The slide broke the Thursday prior range near 1.4200, ran through Monday's weekend gap and printed a London-session low at 1.4070, the monday low. The soft Canadian CPI print triggered a pop to 1.4112, the cpi high, which stalled at the lower-highs trendline and below the 23.6% fib of the decline; price now sits on EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to ~46 from sub-30 readings. EMA(50) sits near the 1.4135 friday close, the same area where Monday's Asia-session gap-fill attempt stalled.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4135, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4112 cpi high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4135 friday close next
Failure to hold the 1.4070 monday low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery through the 1.4200 prior range floor would neutralise the week's breakdown
Canada retail sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; Tue US housing starts are a lesser risk
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak; post-CPI range 1.4083–1.4112.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the rejection at 1.4299 in Wednesday's NY session. The 1.4200 broken floor gave way into Friday's London-NY transition, and Monday opened with a gap under the 1.4136 Fri close before London extended to a 1.4070 week low. The soft Canadian CPI print popped the pair to a 1.4112 CPI high, but it stalled beneath the descending trendline and the 23.6% retracement near 1.4124. Price is now holding the 1.4083 post-CPI low, just under EMA(20) at ~1.4106, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4136, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4112 CPI high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4136 Fri close gap in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4083 post-CPI low exposes the 1.4070 week low; a break there extends the downtrend
Only a recovery through the 1.4200 broken floor (38.2% fib sits near 1.4158 first) would neutralise the week's decline
US Housing Starts/Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC; Friday's US PMIs and Canada Retail Sales are the larger risks to this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4300 rejection; weekend gap unfilled.
USD/CAD has printed a clean run of lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session rejection just below 1.4300. It broke back through the 1.4200 prior floor and gapped lower at the weekly open, leaving the Friday close at 1.4136 unfilled. Monday's low at 1.4070 came in early European trade. The soft Canadian CPI miss then sparked a squeeze to 1.4112 that stalled at the weekly open and EMA(20), and price has faded back below both. RSI(14) sits near 40, and the bounce has yet to reach the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4300–1.4070 decline.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41135, 1.41364, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4112 weekly open and EMA(20) would put the gap back to the 1.4136 Friday close in play
Failure to hold the 1.4070 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 psych level
A break of the lower highs trendline from Thursday's 1.4222 would challenge the downtrend read; the 1.4200 prior floor sits above
Tue 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts/Permits and Fri Canada Retail Sales could shift this read
Lower highs since Wed; Monday gap down, week low 1.4070.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4299. It lost the 1.4200 round number into Thursday and gapped below the 1.4136 Friday close at Monday's open as broad USD softness persisted. The soft Canadian CPI print lifted the pair off the 1.4070 week low during the first hour of NY. The rebound stalled at the weekly open near 1.4113, which sits on the lower-highs trendline, leaving price below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4136, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4113 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; the 1.4136 Friday close is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.4070 week low confirms a fresh lower low, with 1.4000 psych below
A move back toward the 1.4200 round number would retrace beyond the 38.2% of the Wed high–Mon low fib
US Housing Starts and Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC, plus digestion of the BoC Business Outlook Survey, could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection; Monday gap lower.
USD/CAD has carved lower highs since the NY-session rejection at 1.4299 on Wednesday, and broad USD softness extended the slide. Monday opened with a gap under the Friday close at 1.4136, and early-London selling pressed to a new week low at 1.4070. The soft Canadian CPI miss sparked a spike to a 1.4112 CPI high that faded back below EMA(20) near 1.4100, with RSI(14) holding below 40 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4112, 1.4136
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4112 CPI high and into the Friday close gap at 1.4136 would break the lower-high sequence; 1.4124 is the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop
Failure to hold the 1.4070 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.4000 round number
BoC Business Outlook Survey details and US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection; fresh low at 1.4070.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's spike rejection at 1.4299. Broad USD softness extended the slide through 1.4100 in Monday's London session to a 1.4070 Monday low. The Canada CPI miss at 12:30 UTC sparked a 40-pip bounce that stalled at the weekly open near 1.4112, where EMA(20) also sits, with RSI(14) recovering only to around 41.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4136, 1.4158
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.4112 and the lower highs trendline would mark the first break in this week's sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of Friday's prior close at 1.4136 opens the fib 38.2 of the Wed-Mon decline near 1.4158
Failure back below the Monday low at 1.4070 extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the soft core CPI
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows into Monday London session · RSI 31 · price 1.40908
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection; Asian range broken at London open.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's NY-session rejection at 1.4299. The USD softened as Fed-pause bets firmed despite hot US data, and that has driven the slide. Monday opened on a gap below Friday's close, and the London open broke the Asian range to a session low at 1.4088, with RSI(14) near 31 and price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Overhead, the Asian low at 1.4107 and the prior low at 1.4134, which is Friday's low and the unfilled gap edge, sit beneath the descending lower-highs line.
Support: 1.40878, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41071, 1.4134, 1.41728
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT: a firm core print could extend the drop toward the 1.4000 round number, while a soft core risks a rebound into the 1.4107 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above the 1.4134 prior low would fill the weekend gap and bring the lower-highs line into play
Recovery through the 1.4173 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the drop from 1.4299, breaks the lower-high sequence
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299; Monday gap lower, tight Asian range below EMA(20).
Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299 fully reversed. It left a sequence of lower highs along a descending trendline: Thursday's high at 1.4222, where USD faded the hot retail sales and PPI prints, then Friday's lower high at 1.4173, as Fed-pause pricing and narrowing spreads weighed. Monday opened with a ~23-pip gap below Friday's close at 1.4136. Price has since held a 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range, sitting just under EMA(20) near 1.4137, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and ATR compressing to ~11 pips.
Support: 1.41071, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41364, 1.41728, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC today, then the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; core/trim-median vs ~1.9% is the swing factor
An H1 close above 1.4136 fills the Monday gap at Friday's close and tests EMA(20) and the lower-highs trendline
A close above the 1.4173 lower high, near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4299–1.4107 decline, would break the lower-high sequence and bring Thursday's high at 1.4222 into view
Failure to hold the 1.4107 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299; Monday gap below Friday low.
USDCAD peaked at 1.4299 in Wednesday's NY session. Since then it has printed a run of lower highs: the 1.4222 thu high, then the 1.4173 lower high on Friday. USD faded even through Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales, and that soft dollar tone pushed Friday's NY session down to the 1.4134 friday low. Monday opened with a gap lower to the 1.4107 monday low, and the Asian range is holding 1.4107–1.4134, beneath EMA(20) near 1.4137, with RSI(14) parked around 39.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4173, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, then the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC: core broadening vs a soft print could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 1.4134 friday low and EMA(20) would fill the gap and test the lower-highs trendline
A move above the 1.4173 lower high, near the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Mon drop at ~1.4181, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4107 monday low exposes the 1.4100 round number and extends the lower-low pattern
US housing starts and permits on Tuesday add USD-side event risk
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia pausing after gap lower · RSI 39 · price 1.41186
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 peak.
USDCAD has sequenced lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299 was rejected, with each rally capped below the prior one: the thu high at 1.4222, the friday high at 1.4173 and Monday's 1.4134. USD faded into a softer yield backdrop despite hot PPI and retail data, and the pair gapped about 23 pips below the friday close at the Asia open, printing a monday low at 1.4107. Since then it has held a tight Asian range below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 39. The lower-highs trendline sits overhead, and price holds below the 23.6% level of the Wed-Mon fib.
Support: 1.41071, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41364, 1.41728, 1.42217
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC today: a core reading above ~1.9% vs below ~1.7% could materially shift this read, with the BoC Business Outlook Survey following at 14:30 UTC
An H1 close back above the friday close at 1.4136 fills the weekend gap and tests the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.4107 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4100 round number
Recovery through the friday high at 1.4173 and the 38.2% Wed-Mon fib near 1.4180 would break the lower-highs structure, with the thu high at 1.4222 next
Hormuz escalation or a sharp WTI move could override the data-driven read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection; Monday gap below Friday close.
USDCAD has stepped lower since the rejection at 1.4299 in Wednesday's NY session. A falling trendline has capped every rebound through Thursday and Friday, most recently at the 1.4164 lower high, as softer US yields and firm oil supported CAD. The Asia open gapped below the 1.4136 fri close to a 1.4107 monday low. The gap, EMA(20) near 1.4142 and the trendline now cluster overhead, while RSI(14) holds in the low 30s without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.41071, 1.4100, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41364, 1.41643, 1.41805
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC Monday: a core print near or above 2.0% versus ~1.9% expected could extend the slide, while a soft core could drive a squeeze into the gap
An H1 close above the 1.4136 fri close and EMA(20) fills the gap and tests the falling trendline
A reclaim of the 1.4164 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the fib 38.2 at 1.4180 is the next retracement level
Failure to hold the 1.4107 monday low extends lower lows toward the 1.4100 round number, then the 1.4000 psych area
Hormuz/Iran headlines at the Asia open could revive the haven USD bid and complicate the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299, weekend gap below Friday close.
USDCAD has printed a run of lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at 1.4299. Hot US data on Thursday failed to lift the pair, and lower yields with firmer oil carried Friday's NY session down to 1.4134. Monday's Asia open gapped below the 1.4136 fri close to a 1.4107 monday low, with price holding under EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 40. The unfilled gap and the 1.4173 fri high sit overhead as the nearest supply.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4173, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC today: a core print above ~2.0% vs ~1.9% expected could extend the lower-low sequence, while a soft core could prompt a gap fill
H1 close back above the 1.4136 fri close fills the weekend gap and neutralises the gap read
Failure to hold the 1.4107 monday low opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery through the 1.4173 fri high and 1.4222 thu high (near the 61.8% fib of the 1.4299–1.4107 move) would break the lower-high structure
Hormuz/oil headlines at the open could materially shift this read via haven USD demand
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 spike; weekend gap lower, bounce capped at Friday low.
USD/CAD has made lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's NY-session rejection at 1.4299. Lower US yields and narrower US-Canada spreads carried the slide into Friday's 1.4134 low despite hot US data. The Asia open gapped about 23 pips lower to a monday low of 1.4107, and the bounce stalled at the friday low near 1.4134, leaving price on the weekly open at 1.4113 and below ema20 (~1.4146) with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.41135, 1.41071, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4146, 1.41728
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC today: core above ~2.0% vs ~1.9% expected could extend the decline, a soft core could trigger a rebound
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.4107 extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.40 round number the next marked support
H1 close back above the friday low at 1.4134 and ema20 at ~1.4146 would ease the immediate downside read
A close above the friday high at 1.4173 breaks the lower-highs trendline and reclaims the 23.6% fib (~1.4152) of the 1.4299–1.4107 decline
Hormuz shipping incidents and the oil reaction could produce sharp intraday swings in either direction