Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; 1.4200 range floor broken.
After two weeks capped by a triple top at 1.4293–1.4299, USDCAD broke the 1.4200 range floor. The drop came as an AI-led equity sell-off pulled US front-end yields lower, and it has since printed a steady sequence of lower highs down to the 1.4070 swing low. Price is now rebounding after the soft Canadian CPI and is pressing the falling trendline just below the 1.4134 prior low. EMA20 sits below EMA50 and both are overhead, while ATR(14) near 28 pips reflects expansion relative to the earlier range.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.4134 prior low and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence. That opens the 50% fib near 1.4185 and a retest of the 1.4200 range floor.
The 1.4200 range floor is an area to watch for rejection or reclaim on any retest.
Failure to hold the 1.4070 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.4025 late-Sep low.
Fri Canada retail sales (f/c 1.3% m/m) and US S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read.
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 26 · price 1.40936
Triple top near 1.4300 resolved lower; lower highs since 1.4299.
Three failed tests of 1.4293-1.4299 formed a triple top, and the break of the old floor at 1.4200 has produced a clean run of lower highs, with EMA20 now below EMA50. The slide tracks a broad USD correction as Fed hike bets faded, and the softer Canadian CPI has not yet slowed it. Price is pressing the swing low at 1.4070 with RSI oversold and ATR(14) near 29 pips, expanded against the late-September regime, while the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4299-1.4070 leg sits near 1.4158, just above the prior low at 1.4134.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.4134 prior low and the lower-highs line would mark the first break in the sequence since 1.4299
Failure to hold the 1.4070 swing low exposes the 1.4025 sept low and the 1.4000 psych level
A new low with a higher RSI reading would set up a bullish divergence against the oversold condition
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% m/m) and US S&P Global PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
Any recovery stalling below the 1.4200 old floor keeps the triple top structure intact
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 24 · price 1.40783
Triple top at 1.4299, 1.4200 floor broken, lower highs and lower lows.
Three failures at 1.4293-1.4299 formed a triple top. The 1.4200 broken floor gave way on narrower US-Canada yield spreads and broad USD softness, and the slide has since printed lower highs and lower lows down to the current low at 1.4070. Price trades below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 28 pips. Today's soft Canada CPI miss has produced only a modest lift off the lows so far, with RSI deep in oversold territory.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4057, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4057 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4134 prior low, then the lower highs trendline, would mark the first break in the decline
An H4 close back above the 1.4200 broken floor neutralises the triple top read and reopens the 1.4299 area
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC today could reinforce or offset the CPI miss
US S&P Global PMIs on Fri Oct 23 are the main USD-side risk to this read
Triple top at 1.4293-1.4299, lower highs and lower lows since the neckline break.
Three rejections in the 1.4293-1.4299 triple top gave way once the 1.4196 neckline broke. Since then the pair has printed an unbroken sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with EMA20 crossing below EMA50, as softer Fed hike pricing and firmer BoC expectations weighed on the pair. Price has now slipped under the 1.4100 multi-week low to a 1.4088 swing low, with RSI near 24 deeply oversold and ATR(14) around 27 pips, so the decline is extended rather than compressing.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4196, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT today: a core trim/median miss around 1.8% could trigger a rebound toward the 1.4134 prior low
H4 close back above the 1.4134 prior low would turn the 1.4100 break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4088 swing low exposes the 1.4025 base pivot and the 1.4000 round number
Recovery through the 38.2% fib of the 1.4299-1.4088 drop (~1.4169) and the 1.4196 neckline would undercut the triple top read
US S&P Global PMIs Fri and next week's Fed meeting could reprice the USD side
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending below range · RSI 29 · price 1.41197
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299 triple top.
USDCAD failed three times at 1.4293–1.4299, forming a triple top. It then broke the two-week 1.4196 range floor and printed lower highs and lower lows. The weekly open gapped below the 1.4134 friday low to a 1.4107 monday low, as a soft USD that faded hot US data and narrower US–Canada spreads drove the slide. Price sits below both EMAs, with EMA20 crossed under EMA50 and RSI near 29, while ATR(14) holds a steady ~27 pips, so this is a measured trend leg rather than a volatility spike.
Support: 1.41071, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4196, 1.42993
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC today: core broadening could extend the leg toward the 1.4000 round number, while a soft core risks a squeeze back into the gap
H4 close back above the 1.4134 friday low would mark the gap lower as a false break
Recovery above the 1.4196 range floor, near the 50% fib of the 1.4299–1.4107 drop, would break the lower-highs sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.4107 monday low confirms a fresh lower low
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending after a reversal · RSI 30 · price 1.41175
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 top.
USD/CAD rolled over from a triple top at 1.4293-1.4299 and broke the 1.4200 range floor that held through early October. Since then it has printed lower highs and lower lows into 1.4107, as lower US yields and narrower US-Canada spreads outweighed a hot run of US data. ATR(14) near 28 pips shows the decline extending rather than compressing, RSI sits near 30, EMA20 is below EMA50, and the week opened with a small gap below the 1.4135 broken low.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4135, 1.4200, 1.4295
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI core (Mon 12:30 UTC) vs ~1.9% consensus could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.4100 round number exposes the 1.4025 swing low and the 1.40 psych level
Reclaiming the 1.4135 broken low and the lower highs trendline would stall the downtrend read
Only a return above the 1.4200 range floor, near the 50% of the 1.4299-1.4107 fib, would revive the prior range
Oil and Hormuz headlines remain a two-way driver for USD and CAD this week