21:04 UTC
Downtrend from the 1.4299 high, oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.41364
Double top at the 1.4300 range cap, range broken lower, lower highs and lower lows.
After the rally from 1.3978, USD/CAD held a 1.4200–1.4300 range for two weeks, then a double top at 1.4298/1.4299 gave way to a range break below the 1.4200 range floor. Narrowing US-Canada spreads and dovish Fedspeak drove the drop even as US data ran hot. Price has since printed lower highs and lower lows into the late-Sep low near 1.4135, close to the 50% retracement of the rally; EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, RSI near 27 is oversold, and ATR(14) around 29 pips is modestly expanded versus the range phase.
Support: 1.4135, 1.4101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4177, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the late-Sep low at 1.4135 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4101 and the 1.4000 round number
- A move back above the 38.2% fib at 1.4177 and the lower-highs line would stall the descent; reclaiming the range floor at 1.4200 revives the range read below the double top
- Canada Sep CPI Mon 12:30 UTC: core above ~2.0% vs ~1.9% expected, or a soft print, could materially shift this read
- US housing starts/permits Tue and S&P Global PMIs Fri are the USD-side risk to the lower-highs sequence