Lower highs and lower lows after the 1.4299 rejection; Sunday gap lower.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299 was rejected within hours, and the pair has since printed a sequence of lower highs as US yields eased and US-Canada spreads narrowed despite hot US data. Friday's London-NY selling extended the slide to 1.4134. The Sunday open gapped below the Friday close, set a weekly low at 1.4107 and is rebounding toward the gap, with price under both the EMA(20) and the EMA(50) and RSI(14) holding below 50.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4155, 1.4173
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI on Monday at 12:30 UTC; a core reading near or above 2% versus about 1.9% expected could extend the move below the 1.4107 weekly low toward the 1.4000 round number
An H1 close back above the 1.4136 Friday close fills the Sunday gap and puts the ema20 near 1.4155 in play
A break of the lower-highs trendline and a close above the 1.4173 lower high would challenge the downtrend read; the 38.2% fib retracement of the Wednesday-to-Sunday drop sits near 1.4180
Hormuz/Iran headlines at the Monday open could trigger an oil and haven USD bid that disrupts the gap structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection; Monday gap down partly retraced.
USDCAD has printed a clean run of lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session rejection at 1.4299. Each London and NY leg lower tracked falling US yields and narrowing US-Canada spreads, despite a sweep of hot US data. The new week opened with a gap below the 1.4136 Friday close (fri close). The 1.4107 Asia session low is holding so far, and the bounce is probing back into the gap. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 1.4150 and the descending lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 38: below 50, but not oversold.
Support: 1.41135, 1.41071, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41364, 1.4150, 1.41643
What it said to watch
A gap fill through the 1.4136 fri close, followed by an H1 close above the ema20 at 1.4150, would mark the first reclaim of the average since Thursday.
An H1 close above the 1.4164 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read.
Failure to hold the 1.4114 weekly open and the 1.4107 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4100 psych.
Canada September CPI on Monday at 12:30 UTC, then the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30, could materially shift this read; core CPI is the swing factor versus ~1.9% expected.
US housing starts and permits on Tuesday at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk to the move.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending into Friday's close · RSI 35 · price 1.41364
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection.
Wednesday's NY spike to 1.4299 met a sharp rejection, and every bounce since has printed a lower high. Thursday's hot US data lifted price only to the thu high at 1.4222 before a fresh low, and Friday's London session extended the slide to a week low at 1.4134 as narrower US-Canada spreads weighed. The late-Friday bounce stalled at a lower high near 1.4164, just above the falling EMA(20), and price closed back near the lows with RSI(14) at 35, below 50 but not oversold.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4198, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC: core at or above ~2.0% could take price through the 1.4134 week low toward the 1.40 zone
A soft core CPI print could trigger a rebound toward the friday high at 1.4198, which aligns with the 38.2% fib
An H1 close above the lower high at 1.4164 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
A reclaim of the thu high at 1.4222 would put the decline from 1.4299 into question
Weekend IMF headlines could produce a gap at Monday's open