USD/CAD AI Live Scan, daily chart, Monday, 21 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the August low, testing 1.4000 · RSI 63 · price 1.40057
Higher lows since mid-August, price back above EMA50 and pressing the descending resistance from the June high.
The June-to-August decline from the 1.4248 range high bottomed at the 1.3732 August low, and the last four weeks have built a chain of higher lows that has reclaimed both the EMA20 and EMA50 and the 1.4000 psychological pivot. The hawkish FOMC hike widened the Fed-BoC front-end gap to 175bp while crude slid, and that combination has carried spot to its highest since early August. Price is now sitting directly on the descending resistance drawn off the June high, with RSI(14) near 62 — firm but short of D1 overbought, and roughly a 53% retracement of the down-leg.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39254, 1.37318
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.41259, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Consecutive daily closes above the 1.4080 barrier would open the 1.41259 swing high and keep the retracement of the move from the 1.4248 range high intact
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot on a daily close puts the 1.39254 swing low back in play and breaks the higher-low sequence off the aug low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 24 Sep 12:30 UTC and US S&P Global PMIs Wed 23 Sep are the week's only data able to reprice the Fed-BoC spread behind this leg
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.3732 double bottom, reclaiming EMA(50).
The four-month picture is a decline from the 1.4248 swing high into a 1.3732/1.3759 double bottom, followed by a steady three-week recovery that has now cleared the EMA(50) near 1.3935 and closed back above the 1.4000 psych level at 1.40057. Momentum behind the rally is the policy gap — last week's hawkish Fed hike against a seventh BoC hold has widened the front-end spread to roughly 175bp while crude slipped, and the pair is at its highest since early August. RSI(14) at 62 is firm without being stretched, with the 61.8% retracement of the Q3 decline sitting at 1.4053 as the next structural reference.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3935, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4053, 1.4126
What it said to watch
Daily closes holding above the 1.4000 psych level keep the higher-low sequence intact; a close back below it returns price into the prior 1.3900-1.4000 congestion
Acceptance above the 1.4053 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 1.4126 swing high
BoC Macklem speech today 15:00 GMT is the nearest CAD-specific risk to this recovery read
US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep could re-price October Fed odds and materially shift the spread driver behind the rally
Loss of the EMA(50) near 1.3935 would invalidate the recovery structure