11:46 UTC
Multi-quarter range, upward drift within it · RSI 54 · price 1.39943
Higher lows since the January cycle low, capped below the June high.
Regime is a broad multi-quarter range between the January cycle low at 1.3481 and the June 2026 high at 1.4248, with the internal structure building higher lows since Q1 — 1.3481, then 1.3525, then 1.3550, and most recently 1.3732. Price has recovered the 1.3890 area where the W1 EMA(50) sits and is pressing the 1.4000 psych handle, a level the market has traded around repeatedly since Q4 2025; the recent leg up tracks the widening Fed-BoC front-end spread after the hawkish Fed hike against a BoC that has stayed on hold, with softer crude removing the usual CAD offset. RSI(14) at 54 is mid-range and carries no information at this scale — the regime question is simply whether the 1.4000-1.4128 band caps price as it has since November.
Support: 1.3890, 1.3732, 1.3481
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4128, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Consecutive weekly closes above 1.4128 prior high would extend the range toward the 1.4248 2026 high
- Rejection at the 1.4000 psych level keeps the multi-quarter range read intact
- A weekly close back below the 1.3890 w1 ema50 would put the 1.3732 swing low back in play and question the higher-low sequence
- Any repricing of BoC tightening odds is the main structural risk to the rate-spread driver behind this leg