Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:06 UTC
Transitioning to uptrend, strong short-term momentum · RSI 69 · price 1.40863
Double bottom breakout; lower-high chain broken, testing july high.
The June–August decline from the 1.4248 june high put in a double bottom at the 1.3732 aug low and the 1.3759 Sep 8 low. It cleared the 1.3939 neckline on Sep 16. The Fed hike and wide yield spreads then carried price through 1.4000, with 10 gains in 11 sessions, above the 61.8% level of the jun-aug fib near 1.4051 and past the lower highs line. Price is now pressing the 1.4128 july high, with EMA(20) curling up through EMA(50) near the neckline and RSI approaching 70 after a two-week run.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3939, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4128 july high opens the path toward the 1.4248 june high
- Close back below the 1.4005 july low and the 1.4000 psych level would undercut the breakout read
- A return below the 1.3939 neckline would negate the double bottom and restore the lower highs structure
- RSI(14) crossing above 70 marks a stretched run on this timeframe after 10 up sessions in 11
- Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.8%) and US claims/Fed Williams Thu could materially shift this read
12:06 UTC
Uptrend resuming, momentum extended · RSI 74 · price 1.40884
Higher lows off 1.3732, EMA50 reclaimed, pressing three-week highs.
The three-month slide from the 1.4248 quarter high bottomed at the 1.3732 swing low, and the last eleven sessions have produced a near-uninterrupted advance back through EMA20 and EMA50 to 1.4088 — the highest daily close in roughly two months, driven by hawkish Fed repricing and sub-$90 crude leaving CAD the weakest G10 leg. Price is now parked directly beneath the 1.4100 round number with the 1.4126 prior high just above; RSI(14) at 73.5 is genuinely overbought on this timeframe, the first such reading in the window. The 1.4000 pivot has flipped from resistance to the first reference on any weekly-scale pullback, with the rising EMA20 near 1.3935 behind it.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3935, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4126, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4126 prior high would extend the higher-high chain toward the 1.4248 quarter high
- Repeated daily rejection at the 1.4100 round number with RSI above 70 would flag momentum exhaustion
- Loss of the 1.4000 pivot on a daily close would break the current higher-low sequence and put the 1.3935 ema20 back in play
- Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT (f/c -0.8% MoM) and today's US flash PMIs are the near-term events capable of reshaping this read