USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 24 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grinding back toward highs · RSI 60 · price 1.41442
Higher lows above 1.4125 after NY peak at 1.41492.
The US claims beat and rising yields drove the rally to the 1.41492 session high in NY. The pullback held the 1.41251 swing low, which sits on the old late-July highs, and the rollover gap low at 1.41277 was bought. The quiet Asia session has pushed back to 1.4144, just under the 1.4146 lower high, with the 1.4136 range low beneath.
Support: 1.4136, 1.41277, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41492 session high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4136 range low puts the 1.41277 gap low back in play
Break below the 1.41251 swing low invalidates the higher-lows read
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low held at 1.4125 retest, capped by lower highs near 1.4146.
Firm US data and yields drove USDCAD out of the Asian range and through the late-July 1.4125/30 area to a 1.4149 session high in the NY session. The 1.4125 swing low then held near the 38.2–50% retrace of the London-NY leg, a retest of broken resistance. Since then, lower highs near 1.4146 have capped a tight band above the 1.4136 range floor, and the rollover gap to the 1.4128 gap low has been fully retraced in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 1.41357, 1.41277, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4146 lower high and the 1.4149 session high breaks the lower-highs cap and resumes the NY uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.4136 range floor exposes the 1.4128 gap low
A break below the 1.4125 swing low loses the retest of the late-July highs and the 50% fib
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), then US durables (12:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below NY high · RSI 56 · price 1.41419
London breakout above Asian high, NY peak at 1.4149, higher low at 1.4125, now a tight range 1.4136–1.4143.
USD/CAD cleared the Asian high at 1.4113 mid-London and extended through NY to the 1.4149 ny high as US yields and Fed-hike pricing lifted the dollar. The pullback held the 1.4125 swing low, a retest of the late-July 1.4125/30 zone near the 38.2% of the London-NY rally, and the rollover gap to 1.4128 has since filled. Early Asia is compressing inside a 1.4136–1.4143 range with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4143, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4143 range top brings the 1.4149 ny high back into play; a break there extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4136 range low exposes the 1.4125 swing low; failure there puts the breakout at risk, with the asian high at 1.4113 below
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.4125 after 1.4149 high; tight 1.4128–1.4149 range.
The London breakout above the 1.4113 Asian range top ran to a 1.4149 session high in NY as hawkish Fed talk and firmer US yields lifted USD. The pullback found demand at the 1.4125 swing low, near the 50% fib of the rally. Early Asia has recovered from the thin rollover low at 1.4128 and is pressing the 1.4143 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4143, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high resumes the HH chain
Break below the 1.4125 swing low ends the higher-low structure and exposes the 1.4113 breakout level
Rejection at the 1.4143 asia high keeps price boxed in the 1.4128–1.4149 range
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
22:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 53 · price 1.41409
HH/HL chain from the London low; post-NY range 1.4136–1.4146.
London dipped below the Asian low at 1.4097, then broke the 1.4113 asian high. Claims and home-sales beats plus hawkish Fed talk extended the leg to a 1.4149 day high in NY. The NY pullback held the 1.4125 july high between the 38.2% and 50% retrace, and price has since held the 1.4136 evening low under a 1.4143 evening cap through the rollover, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4143, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 day high extends the NY leg; repeated caps at the 1.4143 evening cap keep the range intact
Loss of the 1.4136 evening low reopens the 1.4125 july high near the 50% retrace
A break back below the 1.4113 asian high would unwind the London breakout
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC), US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 51 · price 1.41414
Post-NY range 1.4136–1.4146 under 1.4149 high; rollover gap filled.
The rally ran from the 1.4097 London low to the 1.4149 day high after hawkish Fed commentary and US claims beats. It then held the 1.4125 swing low, just above the late-July highs, and early Asia session has fully reclaimed the rollover gap to 1.4128. Price now sits mid-range between the 1.4136 range low and the 1.4146 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.41357, 1.41277, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4146 lower high and 1.4149 day high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4136 range low exposes the 1.4128 rollover low
Break of the 1.4125 swing low and the rising support trendline undercuts the rally structure
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
HL at 1.4125 after 1.4149 high; lower high at 1.4146 capping.
London broke the asian high at 1.4113. NY extended the move to a 1.4149 session high on US claims beats and Fed-hike bets, clearing the late-July 1.4125/30 area. The pullback held the 1.4125 swing low near the 50% fib, and price is now compressing under a 1.4146 lower high with RSI(14) neutral near 49 into Asia.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high resumes the HH chain
Failure at the 1.4125 swing low and the rising lows line breaks the HL structure, exposing the 1.4113 asian high
Repeated rejection at the 1.4146 lower high keeps price inside a 1.4125–1.4149 range
Rollover dip to 1.4128 came on thin liquidity; Asian range still forming
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY impulse · RSI 50 · price 1.41404
Breakout then retest, consolidation below a lower high.
Hawkish Fed talk and firm US yields drove the NY-session breakout through the 1.4113 Asian high and the late-July 1.4125/30 area to a 1.4149 session high. The 16:15 UTC pullback held the 1.4125 swing low, between the 38.2% and 50% of the rally fib. Late NY then held a 1.4136–1.4146 range under a lower high, and the thin post-rollover dip to the 1.4128 gap low has already been retraced; RSI(14) is neutral near 50.
Support: 1.41277, 1.41251, 1.41132
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 swing low undercuts the retest of the late-July highs and exposes the 1.4113 Asian high
Close above the 1.4149 session high clears the lower high at 1.4146 and breaks the consolidation
Early Asia session liquidity is thin after rollover; Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk
London-NY rally through Asian high, then 1.4136–1.4146 range under a 1.4149 session high; rollover gap down.
The hawkish Fed chorus and the jobless-claims beat lifted USD, carrying the pair through the 1.4113 Asian high in London and up to a 1.4149 session high in NY. Since then it has printed a lower high at 1.4146 and a flat 1.4136–1.4143 range. Early Asia opened with a rollover gap down to the 1.4128 rollover low, now partly filled, with price just under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4137, 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4137 completes the gap fill and brings the 1.4146 lower high back into play
Clearing the 1.4149 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.4128 rollover low (38.2% of the rally fib) and the 1.4125 swing low (the late-July highs zone) exposes the 1.4113 Asian high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Asian range break, NY high at 1.4149, lower highs since.
Hawkish Fed talk and US claims beats carried London's breakout of the 1.4099–1.4113 Asian range to a 1.4149 session high during NY hours. Since then there has been a pullback to the 1.4125 swing low and a run of lower highs under the 1.4143 range top. A thin-liquidity rollover gap has dropped price to 1.4130, on the 38.2% fib and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4143, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 swing low exposes the 50% fib and the 1.4113 asian high
A reclaim of the 1.4143 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4149 session high back in play
Rollover gap printed in thin liquidity; a fill back toward 1.4137 in the Asian session would neutralise it
Loss of the 1.4097 london low would undo the whole day's breakout
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
NY higher low at 1.4125, tight range under 1.4149 high.
London cleared the 1.4098–1.4113 Asian range, and the US claims beat drove NY through the late-July 1.4125/30 area to a 1.4149 session high. The pullback held 1.4125 (ny low) near the 50% fib, but late NY has compressed into a 1.4136–1.4144 range below a 1.4146 lower high, with price on ema20 and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4144, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4136 range low opens a retest of the 1.4125 ny low
Loss of 1.4125 breaks the NY higher-low and exposes the 1.4113 asian high
Close above the 1.4144 range top and 1.4149 session high resumes the NY uptrend
Asia session liquidity is thin; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC Friday are the next scheduled risk
Higher low at 1.4125, tight 1.4136–1.4146 band post-NY.
USDCAD cleared the 1.4113 Asian high late in London and ran to a 1.4149 session high in NY, helped by hawkish Fed talk and US claims and PMI beats. The 16:15 UTC dip found demand at 1.4125, the late-July highs, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London leg. Since then price has held a 1.4136 range low to 1.4146 lower high band into the post-NY lull, RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4136 range low puts the 1.4125 july highs back in play
Failure to hold 1.4125 breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4113 asian high
Close above the 1.4146 lower high and the 1.4149 session high extends the uptrend structure
Thin Asia session ahead; Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday are the next scheduled catalysts
HH/HL chain from London low; lower high at 1.4146, compressing into NY close.
London broke the asian high at 1.4113, and the strong US claims and home sales data in NY carried price through the 1.4125/30 late-July zone to a 1.4149 session high. The pullback held the 1.4125 swing low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and rising support stayed intact. A lower high at 1.4146 now caps a tight 1.4136 range low to 1.4146 band into the NY close, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4136 range low puts the 1.4125 swing low and rising support back in play
Loss of the 1.4125 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, with the asian high at 1.4113 below
Clearing the 1.4146 lower high and 1.4149 session high resumes the HH sequence
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday are the next catalysts that could shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; 1.4146 lower high under 1.4149, tight late-NY range.
London cleared the 1.4113 Asian high at 10:15 UTC and NY extended to a 1.4149 session high on hawkish Fed commentary and firm US claims, taking out the 1.4125/30 late-July highs. The 16:15 UTC pullback found its swing low at 1.4125, near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, and price is now compressing between the 1.4136 late-NY low and the 1.4146 lower high into the NY close, RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.4136, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high resumes the HH chain
Loss of the 1.4136 late-NY low puts the rising trendline and 1.4125 swing low back in focus
Break below the 1.4125 swing low turns the late-July-high retest into a failed breakout, with the 1.4113 Asian high below
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Friday could materially shift this read after a thin Asia session
Asian range breakout, higher low at 1.4125, tight late-NY consolidation.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4113 at 10:00 UTC. NY extended through the late-July 1.4125/30 zone on the US claims and new home sales beats and firm yields, printing a session high at 1.4149. The pullback held the 1.4125 swing low near the 50% retracement of the London-NY leg. A lower high at 1.4146 followed, and price is now compressing just under EMA20 around 1.4136–1.4146 into late NY.
Support: 1.41357, 1.41251, 1.41132
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
Loss of the 1.4136 micro low puts the 1.4125 retest back in play
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high clears the 1.4146 lower high and resumes the London-NY leg
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
The US claims beat at 12:30 UTC, with yields above 5%, pushed USD/CAD out of the Asian range and through the 1.4125/30 late-July highs to a 1.4149 session high. The 16:15 UTC pullback held at the 1.4125 retest low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London-NY rally and on rising support, and a lower high at 1.4146 followed. After London close price is compressing on the ema20 with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 1.4137, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 retest low and rising support breaks the HL chain and exposes the asian high at 1.4113
Close above the 1.4146 lower high and the 1.4149 session high resumes the HH sequence
Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US durables (Fri 12:30 UTC) could reprice US yields, currently the dominant CAD driver
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 50 · price 1.41398
Breakout above 1.4125/30 retested; lower high at 1.4146.
USD/CAD broke out of the Asian and London range and cleared the 1.4125/30 late-July highs as the claims beat and 5%+ yields lifted USD, printing a day high at 1.4149 during NY hours. The pullback found a retest low at 1.4125, near the 38.2–50% fib of the London-to-NY leg. The rebound has since capped at a lower high of 1.4146, with price flat around 1.4140 late in the NY session and RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.4132, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 day high resumes the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4132 swing low exposes the 1.4125 retest low
Break below the 1.4125 retest low and the rising support line negates the breakout read
Williams 09:15 UTC and US Durables 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; tight consolidation under 1.4149 after higher-low retest.
London broke the Asia high at 1.4113 and NY extended to a 1.4149 session high as US claims beats and 5% yields lifted USD. The pullback held a swing low at 1.4125, a retest of the late-July highs. Price is now compressing under a 1.4146 lower high late in NY hours, with RSI(14) back near 52.
Support: 1.41251, 1.4113, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high resumes the HH chain from the London low
Failure to hold the 1.4125 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the Asia high at 1.4113
Return inside the Asian range below 1.4113 puts the london low at 1.4097 and the rising trendline back in focus
US durables (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL from London low; late-NY range 1.4125–1.4149.
London swept the Asian low near 1.4097, then broke the Asian high at 1.4113. Beats in US claims and new home sales, along with broad USD demand on Fed-hike repricing, extended the leg in NY to a 1.4149 session high. The 16:15 pullback held the 1.4125 swing low, the late-July highs area, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the London leg fib. Price now sits just above ema20 at 1.4135 after the London close, capped by a lower high at 1.4146.
Support: 1.4135, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the Asian high at 1.4113
Close above the 1.4149 session high clears the 1.4146 lower high and resumes the London leg
Holding ema20 at 1.4135 keeps price in the 1.4125–1.4149 range
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC and Durables 12:30 UTC could reprice Fed odds and shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; NY higher low at 1.4125, lower high at 1.4146.
London dipped below the Asian range low, then broke the 1.4113 Asian high. The US claims beat at 12:30 UTC and firmer yields extended the leg to a 1.4149 session high. The NY pullback held the 1.4125 pullback low, the late-July highs area near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, and price has recovered above the ema20, though a lower high at 1.4146 is capping the late-NY rebound.
Support: 1.4138, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high resumes the HH chain and clears the 1.4146 lower high
Break of the rising trendline (~1.4132) and the 1.4125 pullback low turns the retest into a failed breakout, exposing the 1.4113 Asian high
Holding the ema20 near 1.4138 keeps the NY retest read intact into the Asia session
No scheduled data before Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri; US yields near 5% remain the swing factor through thin Asia hours
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, late-NY retest held.
USDCAD cleared the Asian high at 1.4113 during London. It extended through the late-July 1.4125/30 zone into NY as US yields lifted the dollar, printing a session high at 1.4149. The late-NY pullback held the 1.4125 retest low near the 38.2–50% fib of the London-NY leg. A higher low at 1.4132 followed, with price back at 1.4142 and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.41318, 1.41251, 1.41132
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 retest low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
Close above the 1.4149 session high resumes the leg; rejection there leaves a lower-high risk into Asia
Loss of 1.4113 asian high would put price back inside the Asian range
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could shift the yield-driven read
HH/HL chain since London; Asian range high broken, 46% pullback held.
USD/CAD broke above the 1.4113 Asian high during London and extended through NY on the US claims beat and soft Canadian retail sales ex-autos, peaking at the 1.4149 session high. The pullback low at 1.4125 held near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, and price is back at 1.4142 late in NY with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 1.41251, 1.41132
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high extends the HH chain
Break below the 1.4125 pullback low forms a lower-low and puts the 1.4113 asian high back in play
A loss of the London-NY trendline would end the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian high at 1.4113. The 12:30 UTC US claims and new home sales beats then drove NY through the late-July 1.4125/30 highs to a 1.4149 session high, in line with the yields-driven USD bid. The post-London-close dip held the 1.4125 retest low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the breakout leg and on the rising trendline. Price is back at the 1.4140 swing high with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.41251, 1.41132
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high extends the HH chain
Break below the 1.4125 retest low and the rising trendline re-opens the 1.4113 asian high
A second stall at the 1.4140 swing high would leave a lower high inside the NY range
No scheduled US/CAD data in the next 8h; Williams 09:15 UTC and Durables 12:30 UTC Fri could shift the yields-driven read
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY spike · RSI 52 · price 1.4133
Broke Asian and London highs, now retesting the 1.4125 breakout zone.
Pair cleared the Asian high at 1.4113 during London. It then ran to a 1.4149 session high in NY after US claims and new home sales beat, pushing through the late-July 1.4125/30 zone. The pullback low at 1.4125 held between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London-NY leg; price is now pinned just under 1.4136 after London close, with RSI(14) back at neutral.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 pullback low turns the retest into a false break and exposes the Asian high at 1.4113
Reclaim of the 1.4136 rebound high reopens the 1.4149 session high
US 10y/30y yields holding above 5% remain the main driver into the Asia session
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after session high · RSI 58 · price 1.41341
Higher-low chain intact; London-close pullback held above late-July breakout zone.
London broke the asian high at 1.4113, and NY extended the leg to a 1.4149 session high, helped by firm US claims and new home sales that cleared the late-July 1.4125/30 area. The pullback into London close held the 1.4125 swing low, near the 50% fib and rising support. With RSI(14) back near 58 and price just above ema20, mid-NY is retesting the breakout rather than reversing it.
Support: 1.41251, 1.41132
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, reopening the asian high at 1.4113
Close above the 1.4140 prior cap puts the 1.4149 session high back in play
Any break of US 10y yields back below 5% could undercut the USD leg; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri is the next scheduled risk
17:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, correcting from session high · RSI 55 · price 1.41341
Higher-high/higher-low chain from the 1.4097 London low; 1.4125 higher low after 1.4149 top.
USDCAD cleared the 1.4113 Asian high in London and extended on the NY open after firm US claims and new home sales. It pushed through the late-July 1.4125/30 area to a 1.4149 session high. The late-NY pullback held 1.4125, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the London rally fib and on the London trendline, and price is back on ema20 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.4132, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 pullback low breaks the London trendline and exposes the 1.4113 Asian high
Recovery through the 1.4141 pivot high reopens the 1.4149 session high
Liquidity thins after NY close; Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday are the next catalysts
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 1.41289
HH/HL chain from London low; post-London-close pullback retesting breakout zone.
London cleared the 1.4113 asian high, and NY pushed through the late-July high near 1.4125 to a 1.4149 session high. Beats in US claims and new home sales, plus a soft Canadian retail ex-autos print, drove the NY leg. Since London close, price has slipped about 20 pips to 1.4129, retesting the july high at the 38.2% fib of the London low–NY high leg, below EMA20 but above EMA50.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4125 july high and the 50% fib near 1.4123 turns the retest into a deeper pullback toward the 1.4113 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4113 asian high puts the 1.4097 london low back in play and breaks the HH/HL chain
Recovery above the 1.4141 prior swing reopens the 1.4149 session high
Thin post-London liquidity; next scheduled risk is Fed's Williams Fri 09:15 UTC and US durables Fri 12:30 UTC
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after NY high · RSI 58 · price 1.41349
HH/HL chain from London low 1.4097; first pullback testing 1.4133 swing low.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.4113. NY extended on the 197K jobless claims beat, clearing the late-July 1.4125/30 highs to a 1.4149 session high. After London close price has eased about 14 pips to the 1.4133 swing low, holding just above EMA20 with RSI(14) cooled to about 58.
Support: 1.41327, 1.4125, 1.41192
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4133 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the july high zone at 1.4125 and the fib 38.2% near 1.4129
Loss of the london high at 1.4119 (near fib 50% at 1.4123) would negate the NY breakout
Reclaim of the 1.4141 prior high puts the 1.4149 session high back in play
No scheduled risk until Fed's Williams Fri 09:15 UTC; thin late-NY and Asia liquidity can exaggerate the pullback
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback off session high · RSI 68 · price 1.4141
HH/HL chain from London low, now retesting the 1.4140 breakout.
London dipped under the Asian range low to 1.4097, then built a steady HH/HL climb through the Asian high at 1.4113. NY extended through 1.4140 to a 1.4149 session high on firm US claims and home sales. After London close price is back at the 1.4140 breakout and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4132, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4132 swing low breaks the HL chain and opens the 38.2–50% fib of the London-NY leg (1.4129–1.4123)
Close back above the 1.4149 session high resumes the leg
Sustained trade under the rising trendline shifts the read toward a range above the 1.4113 asian high
No data in the next 8h; Williams 09:15 UTC and durables 12:30 UTC Fri are the next scheduled risk
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 69 · price 1.4141
HH/HL chain from London low; Asian range broken higher.
USDCAD cleared the Asian high at 1.4113 late in London, then extended through NY on USD strength after sub-200K jobless claims. The 1.4097–1.4149 leg topped at the session high of 1.4149 at 15:30 UTC and is easing after London close. The HH/HL chain holds above the 1.4132 swing low and rising support, with RSI(14) cooling to about 69.
Support: 1.4132, 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4132 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the asian high at 1.4113
Loss of rising support and 1.4113 would put the london low at 1.4097 back in play
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday are the next catalysts
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London close · RSI 76 · price 1.41461
HH/HL chain since London; Asian range broken above.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4113, and the sub-200K claims print at the NY open extended the move to a session high at 1.4148, with shallow higher lows along the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but has not diverged. The prior high at 1.4141 is the first pullback reference.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4132, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.41484, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4141 prior high puts the 1.4132 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 1.4129 in play
M15 close below the 1.4132 swing low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Clean acceptance above the 1.4148 session high and 1.4150 round number extends the NY leg
Retrace back into the asian high at 1.4113 would unwind the full NY breakout
Thin post-London-close trade; Fri durables/UoM and Fed speakers are the next scheduled risk
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 1.41441
Higher highs and higher lows since London; Asian range broken higher, NY extending.
London broke the 1.4098–1.4113 Asian range higher from a 1.4097 low. NY extended the move after beats in US claims and new home sales and mixed Canadian retail sales, clearing the 1.4130 late-July highs to print a session high at 1.4146. Price is holding just above the 1.4141 prior high, with RSI(14) near 79 and hot.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4132, 1.4127
Resistance: 1.41462, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.4141 prior high keeps the HH/HL chain intact; a slip back below it puts the 1.4132 swing low in play
M15 close below the 1.4132 swing low breaks NY structure and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4127
Break above the 1.4146 session high tests the 1.4150 round number with RSI already overbought
A reversal in UST yields from above 5% could unwind the yield-led USD leg quickly
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after data-driven leg · RSI 77 · price 1.41369
HH/HL chain from London low; tight shelf just under session high.
USD/CAD cleared the 1.4113 Asian high during London, then extended to a 1.4141 session high after the 12:30 UTC US claims beat and soft Canadian retail ex-autos, clearing the 1.4130 late-July high. Mid-NY price is holding a tight 1.4133–1.4140 shelf above the breakout level with RSI(14) near 77.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4120, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4130 breakout level puts the 1.4120 pre-data high back in play
Rejection at the 1.4141 session high with RSI easing from overbought marks a stall; a close above opens the 1.4150 psych level
A break of the rising support line from the London low and a loss of the 1.4113 Asian high would undo the breakout read
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; London close flows and US yields drive the rest of the NY session
HH/HL chain since the London breakout of the Asian range; tight consolidation under 1.4141.
London briefly dipped under the Asian low near 1.4097, then broke the Asian high at 1.4113. Price stepped higher through the NY open on beat US claims and firm yields, clearing the late-July 1.4130 area to a 1.4141 session high. It is now holding a 1.4132–1.4140 band above the 1.4132 higher low, with RSI(14) near 76 (hot, not extreme) and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4132, 1.4124, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4132 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the fib 38.2 at 1.4124 in play
A break of the rising trendline from the London low, then loss of the Asian high at 1.4113 (61.8% fib), would unwind the London breakout
Acceptance above the 1.4141 session high exposes the 1.4150 round number
Any reversal in US yields from above 5% into the London close could shift this read
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY session · RSI 79 · price 1.41381
HH/HL chain since London low; Asian range high broken, late-July high cleared.
London held a 1.4097 London low and broke the 1.4112 Asian high at 10:15 UTC. NY then pushed through the late-July high near 1.4131 on US yields and firm claims data, but wicked back from a 1.4141 session high. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4131, 1.4112, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4131 july high keeps the breakout read intact; a slip back inside turns it into a retest test
M15 close back below the 1.4112 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 1.4141 session high opens the 1.4150 psych level
RSI above 80 with a failure at the session high would flag exhaustion of the NY leg
Fri US durables and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the London low, trading well above the Asian range.
USD/CAD cleared the Asian range high and the 1.4115 breakout level late in London. It then extended after the US claims and new home sales beats at 12:30 UTC, printing a session high at 1.4141 in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) near 77 is hot, and the 13:45 rejection wick produced only a shallow dip, with the pullback low at 1.4132 holding so far.
Support: 1.4132, 1.4115
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4132 pullback low opens the 38.2% London leg fib near 1.4124 and the 1.4115 breakout level
Close above the 1.4141 session high puts the 1.4150 round number in play
Break of the rising trendline from the London low shifts the read from trend to range
Trump-Xi summit headlines today, then Williams, US durables and UoM inflation expectations Fri, could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 75 · price 1.41319
HH/HL chain after London break of the overnight range top.
USDCAD cleared the overnight range top at the 1.4115 breakout mid-London. It then pressed through the late-July high near 1.4130 in the first hours of NY on the US yield bid and firm claims, printing a 1.4141 session high before a wick back. Price is now retesting the july high zone, with RSI(14) near 75, hot but not extreme, and the higher-low chain along the rising trendline from the london low intact.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4115, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4130 july high turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 1.4115 breakout level back in play
Close above the 1.4141 session high extends the HH chain toward the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4097 london low breaks the intraday higher-low structure
US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) prints into the current bar; unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines could jolt the USD leg
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after NY data push · RSI 75 · price 1.41319
HH/HL chain since London; Asian range broken higher, testing july high.
USD/CAD cleared the 1.4113 asian high during London and pushed through the 1.4119 london high after the 12:30 UTC US claims beat and soft Canadian ex-autos retail sales, tagging a 1.4141 session high. The 13:45 bar left an upper-wick rejection, and price is now sitting on the 1.4130 july high with RSI(14) near 75, short-term hot for M15.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4119, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4130 july high turns the breakout into a stall; the 50% of the london-ny leg sits at the 1.4119 london high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.4113 asian high would unwind the London-NY breakout
Close above the 1.4141 session high opens the 1.4150 round number
New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 79 · price 1.41313
HH/HL chain after Asian range break; fresh session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4113, and NY extended after sub-200K US claims kept yields and Fed hike bets firm, printing a session high at 1.4133 just through the late-July high near 1.4130. RSI(14) is around 79 and ATR is about 5 pips. The London high at 1.4119 sits at the 38.2% fib of the rally from the London low.
Support: 1.41192, 1.41132, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41328, 1.4150
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 1.4130 would put the late-July high break in question and flag a possible false break
Failure to hold the London high at 1.4119 (38.2% fib) opens the Asian high at 1.4113 retest
A break below the London low at 1.4097 invalidates the intraday uptrend
A close above the session high at 1.4133 leaves the 1.4150 round number as the next reference
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Trump-Xi headlines could shift the read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot but below 80 · RSI 78 · price 1.41273
Higher highs and higher lows off the London low; Asian range broken higher.
USDCAD cleared the Asian high at 1.4113 during London. It extended after the 12:30 UTC US claims beat, printing a session high at 1.4128 just under the 1.4130 July high, with RSI(14) near 78 hot but not extreme. Higher lows off the 1.4097 London low keep the rising trendline intact, with the 1.4119 breakout level the first pullback reference.
Support: 1.4119, 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4130 July high plus an M15 close back below the 1.4119 breakout level would signal a stall
Sustained M15 closes above 1.4130 open the 1.4150 round number
Break of the rising trendline and loss of the 1.4113 Asian high returns price to the London range, with the 1.4097 London low below
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak moving yields could shift this read in early NY
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through London and NY · RSI 71 · price 1.41223
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain from the London low.
London swept under the Asian range to a 1.4097 london low, then reversed and broke the 1.4113 asian high by mid-morning. The US claims beat and soft Canadian ex-autos retail at 12:30 UTC lifted the higher-low chain to a 1.4124 session high in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is near 71 and price sits just below the 1.4130 july high.
Support: 1.4115, 1.41132, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41239, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4130 july high extends the breakout beyond late-July highs
Loss of the 1.4115 swing low and the London trendline would break the higher-low chain
Close back inside the Asian range below the 1.4113 asian high points to a failed breakout, with the fib 50% at 1.4110 next
Asian range broken higher in London, extended at NY open.
London cleared the 1.4113 asian high at 10:15 UTC. The NY open, helped by firm US jobless claims and yields above 5%, extended the higher-low chain to a 1.4124 session high with RSI(14) near 71. Price now sits just under the 1.4130 july high flagged in the CAD digest.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4130
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4113 asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.4130 july high clears the late-July cap; rejection there leaves 1.4124 as the session high
Loss of the london trend line and the 1.4097 london low would break the higher-low chain
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
London HL chain from 1.4097; Asian high broken, tight 1.4111–1.4119 box.
London climbed off the 1.4097 low and broke the Asian high at 1.4113, carried by US yields above 5% and October Fed hike pricing. Price has since held a tight 1.4111–1.4119 box on rising lows, with the session high capping three tests. RSI(14) is at 66 and ATR about 4.6 pips as the 12:30 UTC US claims and Canada retail sales bar forms.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4119, 1.4130
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4119 session high opens the late-July high zone at 1.4125–1.4130
Close back below the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the rising lows and returns price to the Asian range
A retrace deeper than the 50% fib of the London leg, near 1.4108, weakens the breakout read
Failure to hold the 1.4097 London low confirms a lower-low
US claims and Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack (12:50) and Paulson (13:00), could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 67 · price 1.41175
Asian range broken higher in London; higher lows compressing below 1.4119.
London dipped to the london low at 1.4097, then cleared the 1.4113 Asian range high from the 1.4103 breakout low and ran to a 1.4119 session high, with firm US yields and Fed-hike pricing keeping CAD heavy. Price is now coiling in a 7-pip band under the session high, with a higher low at 1.4111 near the 38.2% of the London leg and rising support intact. RSI(14) sits near 67.
Support: 1.41112, 1.4103, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41192, 1.4128
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC land on the next bar; the ~5-pip ATR understates the likely range
Fed's Hammack (12:50 UTC) and Paulson (13:00 UTC) could extend or reverse the data reaction
A close above the 1.4119 session high brings the 1.4125–1.4130 july highs into view
A break of the 1.4111 higher low and rising support exposes the 1.4103 breakout low, then the 1.4097 london low
Asian range broken higher after London swept its low; HH/HL chain since 08:15 UTC.
Early London swept the Asian range low to a london low of 1.4097, then reversed and cleared the 1.4113 Asian high and yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4110. It printed a 1.4119 session high as yields-led USD strength kept the bid. The pullback to 1.4111 held above the breakout zone, with RSI(14) near 67 and not stretched.
Support: 1.41132, 1.41095, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41192
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales both land at 12:30 UTC. Simultaneous USD and CAD data could materially shift this read and expand ranges beyond the 4.6-pip ATR.
An M15 close back below the 1.4113 asian high returns price to the Asian range and turns the breakout into a false break.
Failure to hold the 1.4111 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain. That exposes the 1.4110 prior high and then the london low.
A close above the 1.4119 session high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4125 area cited by desks.
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, holding near session high · RSI 66 · price 1.41164
Higher lows since London low; Asian range and prior-day high broken.
London opened with a sweep of the Asian low to 1.4097 (the London low), then the London leg ran through the Asian high and the 1.4110 prior high to a session high at 1.4119. The move came as US yields above 5% keep USD bid. The pullback to the 1.4111 retest low held and the higher-low chain is intact. RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.41112, 1.41095, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41192, 1.4150
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC in ~30 min, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4111 retest low and the 1.4110 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A clear break of the 1.4119 session high leaves the 1.4150 round number as the next reference
Loss of the 1.4097 London low breaks the rising trend structure
London broke above Asian range; higher lows, retesting breakout.
Late London: after an early dip to the 1.4097 london low, USDCAD broke the 1.4111–1.4113 asian high to a 1.4119 session high on the yields-driven USD bid. Price is now back retesting the old asian high, RSI(14) easing to ~63 from the breakout push. The 1.4103 swing low marks the higher low on the rising trendline.
Support: 1.4111, 1.4103, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4119, 1.4150
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.4111 asian high on a closing basis turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.4103 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and trendline support, exposing the 1.4097 london low
Close above the 1.4119 session high extends the leg; 1.4150 round number is the next reference above
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain through London.
London dipped just below the 1.4099–1.4113 Asian range to a london low at 1.4097. It then cleared the asian high at 10:15 UTC and printed a session high at 1.4119, the highest since late July, on the firm USD/yield backdrop. The London leg holds a higher low at 1.4103, and RSI(14) at ~66 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.41132, 1.4103, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41192, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims both at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4113 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4103 higher low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.4097 london low
Close above the 1.4119 session high opens the path to the Scotiabank 1.4125 target (scotia tgt)
A pullback to the 50% of the London leg (~1.4108) would still sit above the prior range
Asian low swept, Asian high broken, holding above it.
London first dipped through the Asian range, sweeping the Asian low to a London low at 1.4097. It then reversed through the Asian high at 1.4113 to a 1.4117 session high, with USD bid as Treasury yields hold above 5%. Price is holding just above the old Asian high, with a higher swing low at 1.4103 underneath; RSI(14) is near 64, firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4103, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4117, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4113 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4103 swing low breaks the London higher-low trendline and the HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4117 session high opens next res at 1.4125
A drop under the 50% of the London swing near 1.4107 would signal a deeper pullback toward the 1.4097 london low
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales both hit at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker), with Hammack and Paulson shortly after; this could materially shift this read
Late-London break above Asian range, higher lows since 08:15 UTC.
Buyers held the London low at 1.4097, then broke the Asian high at 1.4113 at 10:15 UTC and printed a session high at 1.4117 as USD stays bid on 5% yields. Price is sitting just above the old Asian high with RSI(14) at 64, not stretched, and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.41132, 1.4103, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41174, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC can easily exceed the 5-pip ATR
Failure to hold the Asian high at 1.4113 turns the breakout into a false break back inside the range
A break of the 1.4103 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline from the London low
A close above the 1.4117 session high opens the 1.4125 quarter level
London swept the Asian low, then broke above the Asian high with higher lows.
London dipped under the Asian range low to the london low at 1.4097, reversed, and the 10:15 UTC bar broke through the Asian high at 1.4113 to a session high of 1.4115. Higher lows have stacked through the London leg, with firm USD on October Fed-hike repricing behind the move. RSI(14) near 65 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.41132, 1.4103, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41151, 1.4150
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4113 would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.4103, near 50% of the London leg, breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the london low at 1.4097 reopens the full Asian range
Acceptance above the session high at 1.4115 leaves the 1.4150 round number as the next reference
Higher lows inside the Asian range; London capped below Asian high.
Mid-London, price is still inside the 1.4097–1.4113 Asian range. Two probes of the 1.4110 London high failed just shy of the Asian high, while the 08:15 UTC dip to the London low held near the 50% of the PMI rally fib. Lows keep stepping up from the Wed low. USD firmness after Wednesday's PMI beats keeps price pinned above the 1.4100 psych, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40966, 1.40815
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the Asian range and opens 1.4125
Loss of the 1.4097 London low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.4082 Wed low
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.4097–1.4113 since Asia; London dip below the Asian low was reclaimed.
USDCAD has held a 1.4097–1.4113 range since Asia. London briefly pushed below the Asian low to a 1.4097 london low, reclaimed it, then stalled at a 1.4110 london high under the 1.4113 asian high. Price sits mid-range near 1.4104, about halfway back through the London swing, with RSI(14) ~50 and flat averages as the USD bid keeps the pair pinned near 1.4100 ahead of data.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4113
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could resolve the range
M15 close above the 1.4113 asian high breaks the range top
Loss of the 1.4097 london low reopens the 1.4091 ny low
Asian range 1.4097–1.4113 intact; London swept the low and stalled below the high.
USD/CAD is holding a 1.4097–1.4113 box since Asia, pinned near 1.4100 by the PMI-driven USD bid and the wide Fed-BoC gap. Mid-London, the pair swept below the Asian range to a london low at 1.4097 and recovered, but the rebound stalled at the 1.4110 london high under the asian high. Price is now back near the 50% of that London swing, with RSI(14) ~51 and price hugging flat EMAs.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4091, 1.4082
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4113
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 asian high breaks the range and brings 1.4125 into view
Failure to hold the 1.4097 london low reopens the 1.4091 swing low and the 1.4082 24h low
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims both at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A hold of the 50% of the London swing near 1.4103 keeps the range-bottom rebound structure intact
09:46 UTC
Flat, tight range near highs · RSI 55 · price 1.41073
1.4097–1.4113 box; London swept Asian low, reclaimed.
USDCAD is holding a narrow 1.4097–1.4113 box after the pair lifted in the prior NY session on the US PMI beat. Early London dipped just below the Asian range to a 1.4097 london low, reclaimed it, and ran to a 1.4110 london high, still capped under the 1.4113 asian high. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips, so the tape is quiet.
Support: 1.40966, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41101, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 asian high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4097 london low exposes the 1.4091 ny low
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.4097–1.4113 since Asia, London false break of the Asian low.
USDCAD is pinned in a 1.4097–1.4113 box through Asia and early London, holding the post-PMI USD bid near 1.4100. London dipped under the Asian low to a 1.4097 london low and reclaimed it; price is back at 1.4108 below the 1.4113 asian high, RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40966, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 asian high breaks the range, with 1.4125 psych next
Failure to hold the 1.4097 london low exposes the 1.4091 ny low
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC, can materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Sideways, compressed range under 1.4113 · RSI 54 · price 1.41064
Tight 1.4097–1.4113 range since Asia; London false break of Asian low recovered.
Mid-London and still boxed in the overnight range. The London session dipped under the Asian low to a 1.4097 london low and recovered to 1.4106, while the 1.4110 london high capped both Wednesday's NY session and the London open. Post-PMI USD firmness is keeping the pair pinned near 1.4100, with RSI(14) flat around 54 and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.40966, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 asian high breaks the range and brings the 1.4115/1.4125 cluster into view
Failure to hold the 1.4097 london low exposes Wednesday's 1.4091 ny low
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales both at 12:30 UTC, with Fed's Hammack and Paulson shortly after, could resolve the range
Inside Asian range 1.4097–1.4113; London dip below Asian low reclaimed.
The US PMI beat lifted the pair from 1.4082 to the Asian high at 1.4113. Since then it has been ranging. London dipped to 1.4097, the London low, just under the Asian range floor and near the 50% retracement of the PMI rally. The move was reclaimed within a bar, and the London high at 1.4110 has capped the rebound so far.
Support: 1.40966, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the range, with 1.4115 digest resistance just above
Failure to hold the 1.4097 London low exposes the 1.4091 NY low
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, with Hammack and Paulson from 12:50, could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Sideways, drifting to range floor · RSI 41 · price 1.40983
Asian range 1.4100–1.4113, London lower high at 1.4110, now probing the floor.
After the US PMI beat and weak 5y auction lifted the pair into 1.4110 during NY hours, USD/CAD has held a tight Asian range under the 1.4113 asian high. London printed a lower high at the 1.4110 double cap and has since slipped back to the 1.4098 london low, with price under both EMAs, RSI(14) near 41 and the 1.4100 round number now overhead.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110, 1.4113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4098 london low exposes the 1.4091 NY swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4100 round number and a break of the lower highs line puts the 1.4110 double cap and 1.4113 asian high back in focus
Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs after PMI-driven push · RSI 50 · price 1.41033
Inside Asian range 1.4098–1.4113, London capped below asian high.
USDCAD is holding near 1.4100, its highest since late July, after Wednesday's US PMI beats and weak 5y auction lifted USD, but has been compressing inside the Asian range since the 1.4113 asian high. Early London printed a 1.4110 london high and pulled back, while the asian low near 1.4099 lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the ny low-to-asian high leg. RSI(14) at 50 and ATR(14) near 4 pips reflect a tight, directionless session so far.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4113
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 asian high breaks the range and brings the 1.4115/1.4125 area into view
Failure to hold the 1.4099 asian low / 61.8% retrace exposes the 1.4091 ny low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift the USD leg within the next few bars
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales both at 12:30 UTC are the main range-break risk for the NY session
07:46 UTC
Sideways near highs after Wednesday's PMI-led push · RSI 55 · price 1.41078
Asian range 1.4099–1.4113 intact; early-London dip below range low reclaimed.
The dip before and into London open slipped just under the 1.4098 Asian low and was reclaimed near the 61.8% fib of the NY-low-to-Asian-high leg. Price is back at 1.4108 in the upper half of the Asian range, with the 1.4113 session high overhead. The pair holds near late-July highs on Fed hike pricing after Wednesday's PMI beats and the weak 5y auction.
Support: 1.40983, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Williams speaks at 08:10 UTC; hawkish or dovish Fed lines could break the Asian range either way
M15 close above the 1.4113 session high opens the path to the 1.4125 Scotiabank target
Failure to hold the 1.4098 Asian low exposes the 1.4091 NY swing low
US claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the main event risk for the NY session
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling inside Asian range · RSI 52 · price 1.4106
Higher lows, compressing within the 1.4098–1.4113 Asian range.
USDCAD is holding mid-range between the 1.4098 Asian low and the 1.4113 Asian high into the London open. Yesterday's US PMI beats drove the rally through 1.4100 during NY hours, and the pre-London dip held the 38.2% retracement near 1.4100, keeping the higher lows off 1.4078 intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and the NY swing low at 1.4091 sits just below.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4113
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the range and extends the higher lows sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4098 Asian low and the higher lows trendline shifts focus to the 1.4091 NY swing low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could jolt the USD leg early in London session
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
London opens inside a 15-pip Asian range of 1.4098–1.4113 after the USD-bid PMI leg. Price is pinned at the EMAs with RSI(14) near 46. The asia low at 1.4098 coincides with the 38.2% fib of the 1.4078–1.4113 up-leg, and the rising lows trendline from yesterday's London low is still intact.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4098 asia low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4091 swing low and the rising lows trendline
M15 close above the 1.4113 asia high opens the path to the 1.4125 Scotiabank target (scotia tgt)
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could break the Asian range
Lower highs off the Asian high, compressing above the Asian low.
The post-PMI USD bid carried the pair from the 1.4091 NY low to an Asian high at 1.4113, but each bounce since has stalled at a lower high. Early London has held the 1.4098 Asian low twice, with price parked on the 50% retrace of that NY-to-Asia leg near 1.4100. RSI(14) is ~45 and there is no momentum either way.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4107, 1.4113, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4098 Asian low exposes the 1.4091 NY low and the 61.8% fib near 1.4099
Close above the 1.4107 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.4113 Asian high, then 1.4125 (scotia tgt)
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift the USD leg
Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the main risk to this range read
06:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting to range low · RSI 44 · price 1.40991
Asian range 1.4099–1.4113 with lower highs since 02:00 UTC.
The PMI-driven USD bid lifted the pair off the 1.4091 NY low to a 1.4113 Asian high. Asia has since printed lower highs, and the late-session drop has price back at the asian low and the 61.8% retracement near 1.4099, just under the 1.4100 round number. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s as London open approaches.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4107, 1.4113
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4099 asian low exposes the 1.4091 ny low
Close back above the 1.4107 lower high breaks the Asian trendline and reopens the 1.4113 asian high
Failure to reclaim the 1.4100 round number keeps the range tilted lower into London
Williams 08:10 UTC, then CA Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Flat, consolidating below Asian high · RSI 51 · price 1.41041
Tight Asian range 1.4100–1.4113, lower highs since 02:00 UTC.
USD/CAD is holding above 1.4100 into the London open after the PMI-driven USD bid lifted it from the 1.4091 NY low to a 1.4113 Asian high. Rejection at the Asian high left lower highs capped near 1.4107 (intraday cap). Price is compressing around EMA20 inside a ~3-pip ATR, with dips to the 1.4100 Asian low absorbed three times.
Support: 1.40997, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41069, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.4100 Asian low exposes the 1.4091 NY low
A rebound through the 1.4107 intraday cap would negate the lower-high sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC, then CA Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Compression: rising lows vs lower highs below Asian high.
Hot US PMIs lifted USD/CAD through 1.4100 in NY, and Asia extended to a 1.4113 Asian high before a rejection. Price is now compressing between the 1.4100 round number and a line of lower highs into London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR is about 3 pips, so the session range is tight.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the compression; 1.4125 sits beyond
Close below the 1.4100 round number breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.4091 post-pmi low
Holding under the 1.4110 NY high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US jobless claims and Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.41057
Higher lows since NY dip; tight 1.4100–1.4113 Asian range.
Ahead of the London open, USDCAD is consolidating inside a 1.4100–1.4113 Asian range. The pair is still carrying the post-PMI USD bid that lifted it through yesterday's highs. Asia pulled back from the 1.4113 Asian high and twice retested the 1.4100 round number, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the 1.4091 NY low to Asian-high leg, and that level has held so far.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high opens the Scotiabank 1.4125 bank target
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.4091 NY low
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, plus oil/Hormuz headlines, are two-way risk for the range
05:46 UTC
Flat after Asian high, drifting lower · RSI 41 · price 1.41017
Asian range 1.4099–1.4113, lower high at 1.4108.
Asia briefly lifted the pair above yesterday's NY high to an Asian high at 1.4113, but the push did not hold. Price has since faded to the 78.6% of the Asian leg fib and is pressing the rising trendline near 1.4100, with a lower high at 1.4108 capping late Asia. The move sits within the post-PMI USD bid and remains inside a 3-pip ATR range ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.41082, 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
A close below the asian low at 1.4099 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the swing low at 1.4091
A close back above the lower high at 1.4108 returns focus to the asian high at 1.4113 and the 1.4125 tgt
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4099–1.4113, lower high under Asia high.
Late Asia session, holding inside a tight 1.4099–1.4113 Asian range after the post-PMI USD bid lifted the pair through the 1.4110 NY high. The asia high at 1.4113 drew a rejection, the dip held at the 61.8% of the ny low to asia high leg, and the rebound stalled at a lower high near 1.4108; ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.40997, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41082, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4113 asia high breaks the Asian range and the lower high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4100 asia low exposes the 1.4091 ny low
London open sets the first test of the Asian range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 45 · price 1.41036
Higher low held at 61.8% fib; lower high at 1.4108, compressing.
The USD bid from hot PMIs and hawkish Fed pricing carried the pair off the 1.4091 NY low. Asia then printed a new session high at 1.4113 before retracing to the Asian low at 1.4100, the 61.8% fib of that leg. Price is now pinned between 1.4100 and a lower high at 1.4108 about two hours before London open.
Support: 1.40997, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41082, 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4100 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4091 NY low
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asian high resumes the HH sequence toward the 1.4125 bank target flagged by Scotiabank
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could break the pre-London compression
US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Sideways after Asia high, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.41036
Asian range 1.4099–1.4113, price mid-range below lower high.
USDCAD extended the PMI-driven USD bid to an Asian high at 1.4113. It was rejected there and retraced about 61.8% of the NY-Asia leg to the 1.4100 area, where the Asian low held. Price is now pinned mid-range under a 1.4108 lower high, just below EMA20, with a tight 3-pip ATR ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40986, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41082, 1.41132
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4113 Asian high breaks the range to the upside and extends the NY-Asia leg
Failure to hold the 1.4099 Asian low exposes the 1.4091 NY swing low and invalidates the higher-low structure
A reclaim of the 1.4108 lower high shifts the range read back toward a retest of the top
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US jobless claims and Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing inside Asian range · RSI 52 · price 1.41047
HH/HL chain since the PMI spike; Asia range 1.40986–1.41132 holding.
The PMI beat lifted USDCAD through 1.4100 during NY hours. Higher lows followed at the 1.40907 NY low and then the 1.4099 Asia low, which also sits on the 61.8% fib of that leg. Asia printed a 1.41132 high and a 1.41082 lower high, leaving price mid-range near the fib 50% at 1.4102 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4102, 1.4099, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41082, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4099 asia low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.40907 ny low
Break above the 1.41082 lower high and the 1.41132 asia high extends the HH sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4100–1.4113; failed extension above prior high, higher lows intact.
Asia extended the PMI-driven USD bid through the 1.41095 prior high to an asian high of 1.41132, but the move did not hold and faded to the 1.4100 round figure. Demand stepped in at the 1.40997 asian low, near the 61.8% of the ny low–asian high leg, and price is now drifting around the 38.2% at 1.4105 with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 1.40997, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40997 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the ny low at 1.40907
Acceptance back above the 1.41095 prior high and the 1.41132 asian high negates the false break read
London open in about 2.5h; Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US jobless claims and Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC could reset the range
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing inside Asian range · RSI 50 · price 1.41061
Higher highs and higher lows since NY low; late-Asia consolidation 1.4099–1.4113.
The higher-low chain from the NY low at 1.4091 is intact through Asia. The pullback from the 1.4113 Asian high held the Asian low at 1.4100, which sits on the 61.8% fib, and price is back under the NY high at 1.4110. USD firmness after the PMI beats and hawkish Fed pricing keeps the pair pinned near late-July highs, with RSI(14) neutral around 50 into the London open.
Support: 1.40997, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4100 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the NY low at 1.4091
Acceptance above the NY high at 1.4110 and the 1.4113 Asian high extends the HH sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, Asia pullback held · RSI 48 · price 1.41061
Higher highs into Asia; pullback held 1.4100 swing low.
Asia session extended the USD-led grind (PMI beats, hawkish Fed pricing) to an asia high at 1.4113, then pulled back to the 1.4100 swing low near the 61.8% of the ny low–asia high leg, where buyers stepped in. Price at 1.4106 sits just under the ny high at 1.4110 about 3h before London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.40997, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4100 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4091 ny low
Close above the 1.4113 asia high reopens the 1.4125 area; ny high at 1.4110 is the first cap
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asia high · RSI 51 · price 1.41037
Higher lows since London; Asia high rejected, pullback holding 1.4100.
The post-PMI USD bid lifted the pair from the 1.4078 London low through 1.4100. Asia extended past the 1.4110 NY high to a 1.4113 Asia high before a rejection, and the pullback is retesting the 1.4100 round number at the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 51, and price sits just under EMA20 late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4100 round number and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4091 pullback low
M15 close above the 1.4113 Asia high clears the ny high / asia high cap
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC; US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia: price broke above yesterday's post-PMI ny high at 1.4110 and printed an asia high of 1.4113, but it failed to hold. The asia leg has since retraced about 85% to 1.4101, just above the asia low at 1.4099, with RSI(14) at 44 and price back under both EMAs. The broader USD bid from the hot US PMIs keeps the pair near the 1.4100 handle.
Support: 1.40986, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asia low at 1.4099 turns the Asian leg into a lower-low and exposes the ny low at 1.4091
Recovery back through the ny high at 1.4110 negates the false-break read and reopens the asia high at 1.4113
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, shortly after London open, could shift USD tone
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the main event risk for the NY session
03:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 44 · price 1.41008
Asia pushed above the NY high, rejected; now retracing to 1.4100.
USD/CAD carried the post-PMI USD bid through NY. Asia printed a new asia high at 1.4113, just above the 1.4110 ny high, before slipping 12 pips back to the 1.4100 round number, which lines up with the 50% fib of the NY-low-to-Asia-high leg. Price is back below the ema20 near 1.4105, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.41006, 1.40986, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.41095, 1.41132
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4099 breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the ny low at 1.4091 (61.8% fib near 1.4098)
Recovery through the ema20 at 1.4105, then a close above the ny high at 1.4110 and the asia high at 1.4113, opens the path to 1.4125
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift the read into London open
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC, are the main event risk for the NY session
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.4108
Higher lows since NY afternoon; Asia printed a marginal new high then eased.
The post-PMI USD bid carried into the Asia session. Price set a window high at the 1.4113 asian high, just above yesterday's 1.4110 NY peak, and is now holding near 1.4108. Higher lows at the 1.4091 ny low, the 1.4099 asian low and the 1.4102 swing low keep the intraday rising structure intact. RSI(14) sits near 59 with no extreme, and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4102, 1.4099, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4102 swing low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 1.4099 asian low and 50% fib in play
Loss of the 1.4091 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4113 asian high exposes the 1.4125 scotia level
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 67 · price 1.41119
Higher lows since NY pullback, fresh session high above 1.4100.
The post-PMI USD bid and Fed-BoC divergence carried the NY-to-Asia leg through the 1.4100 round number. Asia printed a session high at 1.4113, clearing the 1.4110 NY high, with higher lows at the 1.4099 Asian low and the 1.4102 swing low. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR is under 4 pips, typical of thin Asian conditions.
Support: 1.41095, 1.41022, 1.40986
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4102 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and puts the 1.4099 Asian low in play
Failure to hold above the 1.4110 NY high would turn the session-high push into a false break
Scotia's cited 1.4125 target sits about 12 pips above the current session high
Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the NY low; Asia session pressing above yesterday's NY high.
Asia session extended the higher-low chain off the ny low at 1.4091. Price is pressing back into the 1.4112 asia high after a retest that held the 1.4102 swing low, near the 50% of the NY-Asia leg fib. The USD bid after the hot PMIs and wide rate spreads keeps the pair around 1.4100; RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched.
Support: 1.4102, 1.4099, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 asia high opens the 1.4125 quarter fig
Loss of the 1.4102 swing low and 1.4099 asia low breaks the HL chain; the 1.4091 ny low comes next
Rejection at the 1.4112 asia high leaves a flat top, with the NY-Asia leg fib 61.8% at the asia low
Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US claims and Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
USD/CAD cleared the NY high at 1.4110 in the Asia session and printed a 1.4112 session high. Hawkish Fed repricing after yesterday's PMI beats is carrying the move. The 01:15 UTC pullback held the 1.4102 swing low above rising support, and RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.4102, 1.4099, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4099 asian low breaks the higher-low chain; the ny low at 1.4091 is next below
Close above the 1.4112 session high opens the 1.4125 quarter fig
Loss of rising support from the 1.4091 ny low would shift the read to range
Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift the USD leg
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY pullback; Asia high retest holding.
The US PMI beat in NY hours pushed USDCAD through 1.4100. Higher lows from the 1.4091 ny low carried the Asia session to a 1.4112 asia high, just above the NY high. The dip that followed held near the 38.2–50% fib of that leg at 1.4102, just over 1.4100 psych, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR at a quiet 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4100 psych, then the 1.4091 ny low, would break the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4112 asia high opens the quarter fig at 1.4125
Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.4091 NY low; Asia false break above NY high.
Mid-Asia session: price poked through the NY high at 1.4110 to an Asia high of 1.4112, then gave it back in two bars to 1.4103, a false break that cooled RSI(14) to ~53. The leg higher came after yesterday's US PMI beats. Price now sits just above psych 1.4100, near the 61.8% of the NY low-Asia high fib, with the 1.4091 NY low as the base of the higher-low sequence.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907, 1.40815
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close below psych 1.4100 breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.4091 NY low
Loss of 1.4091 NY low ends the higher-low chain; pre-pmi low at 1.4082 next
Close back above the 1.4112 asia high negates the false break
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at new highs · RSI 61 · price 1.41068
Higher lows since NY PMI spike; Asia broke above 1.4100.
Early Asia session extended the PMI-driven USD bid, clearing the 1.4100 round number and the prior NY high to print a session high at 1.4112 before a small pullback, RSI(14) cooling to ~61. Higher lows have held since the 1.40815 NY low, with the 18:00 UTC ny swing low at 1.40907 and the asia low at 1.40986 marking the chain.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40986, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4100 round number and asia low 1.40986 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.40907 ny swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4112 session high opens Scotiabank's 1.4125 target (scotia tgt)
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US jobless claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh high in early Asia · RSI 63 · price 1.41068
Higher highs from NY; holding just above 1.4100 after a break.
The Asia session extended the PMI-driven NY rally, tagging a 1.4112 session high just above the 1.41095 NY high and the 1.4100 round number. RSI(14) sits near 63, not stretched, and price is holding above both EMAs. The asia low at 1.40986 and the round number form the first support shelf, with the ny pullback low at 1.40907 below that.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40986, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.4112, 1.4125
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4100 round number and the 1.40986 asia low, near the 38.2% fib, would mark a failed breakout
Loss of the 1.40907 ny pullback low, near the 61.8% fib, would break the higher-low sequence from NY
Acceptance above the 1.4112 session high leaves Scotiabank's 1.4125 bank target as the next reference
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 1.41069
Higher lows above 1.4100, pressing the NY high.
The US PMI beat lifted the pair from the 1.4084 pre-PMI base to a 1.41095 NY high. The 18:00 UTC pullback held a 1.4091 swing low. Asia is now building above the 1.4100 psych off a 1.4099 Asian low, with price at the range top and just under the NY high.
Support: 1.40986, 1.40907, 1.4084
Resistance: 1.41095, 1.4125
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41095 NY high clears the path toward the 1.4125 scotia tgt
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4099 asian low puts the 1.4091 swing low in play
Loss of 1.4091 exposes the 1.4084 pre-pmi base and breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US claims and Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 55 · price 1.4104
Higher lows since London; tight Asian consolidation above 1.4100.
USDCAD cleared the Asian range in London, then extended to a 1.4110 day high in NY after the US PMI beat, with the USD bid on renewed October Fed hike pricing. The pullback held a higher swing low at 1.4091 above the 1.4078 London low. Early Asia is compressing in a 5-pip band between the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4105 recent high, with the rising trendline from the London low now tracking just under 1.4100. The rollover wick to 1.4087 printed on thin liquidity and did not close lower.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4091, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4110 day high extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4100 round number and the rising trendline shifts focus to the 1.4091 swing low
Break below the 1.4091 swing low leaves the 1.4078 London low as the next structural floor
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; tight Asian range holding above 1.4100 psych.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted USD/CAD through 1.4100. The NY rally was rejected at the 1.41095 session high, and the pullback held a higher swing low at 1.40907, keeping the rising lows trendline intact. Asia session is compressing in a 5-pip band between the 1.4100 psych level and the 1.41051 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907
Resistance: 1.41051, 1.41095
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41095 session high extends the uptrend toward 1.4125
Loss of 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.40907 swing low; a break there ends the higher-low chain and the rising lows trendline
Hold of the PMI rally fib 61.8% zone keeps the pullback shallow
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could break the Asian range
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.41021
Higher lows since London; tight range above 1.4100.
USDCAD extended higher on the US PMI beat, setting a NY high at 1.4110 before the pullback held a higher swing low at 1.4091. Early Asia is compressing between the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4105 Asia high. Price is sitting on a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, and ATR is down to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907, 1.40775
Resistance: 1.41051, 1.41095
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4110 NY high breaks the Asia consolidation and extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4100 round number puts the 1.4091 swing low and rising trendline in play
Break below the 1.4078 London low invalidates the intraday higher-low structure
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could reset the range