21:01 UTC
Recovery from late-Jan low, stalling near 1.3820 · RSI 60 · price 1.38065
Higher lows since early Apr, capped under 1.3820-1.3900 supply.
USDCAD has carved a rounded bottom off the late-January 1.3480 low, with price reclaiming both EMA(20) and EMA(50) through May and posting a chain of higher lows since the early-April pullback to 1.3550. The current push is stalling under 1.3820, a level that capped the late-February swing, and Scotiabank desk commentary flags the same area near the 200DMA as a stall point. RSI at 60 leaves room to extend, but two daily closes have failed to clear the range high.
Support: 1.3770, 1.3640, 1.3550
Resistance: 1.3820, 1.3900
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 1.3820 opens the path to the 1.3900 Feb pivot
- Rejection at 1.3820 followed by loss of 1.3770 reopens 1.3640 swing low
- Sustained Brent strength on Hormuz headlines could cap upside via CAD support