21:06 UTC
Transitioning lower after Oct double top · RSI 45 · price 1.40484
Lower highs since Oct 14; bounce off 1.3968 swing low into EMA resistance.
USDCAD rallied roughly 570 pips from the 1.3732 Aug low into a double top near 1.4299 (Oct 9 and Oct 14). The 1.4200 neckline then broke and the pair fell seven straight sessions to a six-week swing low at 1.3968 as a narrowing US–Canada 2-year spread weighed, retracing about 57% of the Aug–Oct rally. This week's rebound on a firmer USD is now retesting the ema50/38.2% cluster near 1.4081, with EMA20 at 1.4096 and the Oct downtrend line overhead, while the in-line BoC hike and Fed hold left price pinned just above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the ema50/38.2% cluster (1.4081–1.4096) and the Oct downtrend line reopens the 1.4200 neckline
- Failure to hold 1.4000 and the 1.3968 swing low confirms a lower low, exposing the 61.8% fib near 1.3949 and then the 1.3732 aug low
- A move back through the 1.4299 double top would negate the reversal read
- US core PCE/Q3 GDP (Thu 12:30 UTC) and Canada Aug GDP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read