Double top at the week high, 1.4000–1.4050 range broken on the Fed.
Monday's gap up from the 1.4038 weekly open was faded in the first hours of the week. Two NY-session rallies then carried the pair to the 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session, and the post-BoC whipsaw failed again just below it at 1.4064, forming a double top. The pair stalled below the lower highs line into the Fed, then the dollar sold off on Warsh's hawkish hold and the 18:00 UTC bar sliced through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 post-fed low. Price now sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 29, just above the 1.3968 6-week low from last Friday, and the fib on the 1.4068–1.3989 drop marks the retracement levels for any rebound.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.3989 post-fed low exposes the 1.3968 6-week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
A rebound stalling under the lower highs line or the 1.4038 weekly open keeps the double top intact; only a move through the 1.4068 week high cancels it
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Canada August GDP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2%) is the next CAD-side catalyst
Double top near 1.4065, lower highs, broke back below 1.4000.
The Monday-to-Wednesday grind up from 1.3998 peaked at the 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. A second push to 1.4064 on the BoC hike failed and completed a double top, then the Fed hold and Warsh's 'tightening is working' line drove the NY-session leg through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 fed low. That leg erased the week's gains and left price below the 1.4038 weekly open and the ema20 near 1.4026, with RSI(14) near 29 and highs stepping lower along the Wednesday lower-highs line.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4026, 1.4068
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number and the Wednesday lower-highs line would undercut the double top read
Failure to hold the 1.3989 fed low exposes Friday's 1.3968 six-week low
A rebound into the 50–61.8% zone of the Wednesday decline fib (1.4028–1.4038), near the ema20, is the first test of the breakdown
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE / Q3 GDP (~15.5h) could materially shift this read; Canada GDP follows Fri 12:30 UTC
A recovery through the 1.4068 week high would invalidate the reversal structure
The rebound from Friday's 1.3968 six-week low ran to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asian session. Wednesday then printed lower highs. The BoC hike whipsawed price between 1.4026 and 1.4064 with no follow-through, and the Fed hold, read as less hawkish after Warsh's 'tightening is working' line, drove a ~60-pip slide through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 fed low. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.4034 with RSI(14) around 29, having retraced roughly 78.6% of the Fri low–week high rebound.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4034, 1.4068
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number would mark the break as a false break of the week's range floor
Failure to hold the 1.3989 fed low exposes the 1.3968 friday low and the full Fri low–week high retracement
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.4034 and the Wed lower highs line would neutralise the post-Fed slide
Thu 12:30 UTC US core PCE and Q3 GDP (~15.5h away) could materially shift this read
Canada August GDP on Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side catalyst
Higher-low sequence broken; trading below the 1.4000 week floor.
The Monday–Wednesday climb printed higher lows into a 1.4068 week high during Wednesday's Asia session. The BoC hike whipsaw then capped price below that high, and the FOMC hold and Warsh presser drove it through the higher lows trendline and the 1.4000 round number, taking out Monday's 1.3998 low. Price now sits at the 1.3989 session low, below EMA20/50 converged near 1.4033, with RSI(14) at 26 in oversold territory and ATR(14) expanded to ~14 pips; despite the digest's firm-USD read, the dollar gave ground against CAD through NY hours.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4019, 1.4033
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number would turn the break of Monday's low into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3968 prior wk low from last Friday
A rebound stalling at the 38.2% fib near 1.4019 or at EMA20/50 around 1.4033 keeps the lower highs sequence from 1.4068 intact
Warsh presser still in progress, then US Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada August GDP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the structure
19:03 UTC
Pullback within the week's range, momentum turning lower · RSI 33 · price 1.40173
Lower highs from the 1.4068 week high; dip toward the week low, higher-low line under test.
USD/CAD climbed from Monday's week low at 1.3998 to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. It rolled over from London, then whipsawed around the weekly open at 1.4038 on the BoC hike. The FOMC hold drove a spike to the fomc low at 1.40045, retracing most of the week's rally. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), between the fomc low and the 61.8% fib of the week's rally at 1.4025, with RSI(14) near 33 and Monday's higher-low line under test. Each bounce since the week high has been capped at lower highs, while the 1.4000 area has drawn demand twice this week.
Support: 1.40045, 1.39981, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40249, 1.40384, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H1 close below the fomc low at 1.4005 and the week low at 1.3998 would break Monday's higher-low line and expose Friday's 6-week low at 1.3968
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 1.4025, then the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4038–1.4040, would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Warsh presser in progress, then US Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Canada August GDP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2%) tests whether the 1.4000–1.4050 range holds
18:04 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, pulling back into Fed · RSI 41 · price 1.40357
Higher lows intact; Wednesday pullback from week high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows from Monday's 1.3998 low after Sunday's gap-up open. The NY sessions on Monday and Tuesday drove the advance, and the firm US data run carried it into Wednesday's Asia-session week high at 1.4068. The BoC hike spike to 1.4064 met rejection as the as-expected decision gave CAD little lift, and price has since slipped to the 50% retrace of the week's rally near 1.4033. It now sits below EMA(20) at ~1.4045, just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing into the low 40s.
Support: 1.4033, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4055, 1.4068
What it said to watch
The Fed decision and Warsh press conference are landing now and could materially shift this read; ATR is ~12 pips and the boc low at 1.4026 sits just below.
An H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.4045 and the Monday high at 1.4055 reopens the week high at 1.4068.
A close below the boc low at 1.4026 and the higher-low trendline near 1.4019 breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4000 psych level.
Thursday's core PCE and jobless claims could reshape the structure after the Fed.
Higher lows intact, lower high after BoC spike, price below EMAs.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. Tuesday's NY-session advance carried the pair to a 1.4068 week high during Wednesday's Asia session. The BoC's priced-in hike to 2.50% produced a two-way swing that was rejected at 1.4064, below the week high, and left price at 1.4033, under the weekly open, EMA(20) and EMA(50), on the 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Wed leg with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4009, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4048, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4026 BoC low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the Tuesday low at 1.4009 and 1.4000 psych
Recovery above the weekly open at 1.4038 and the EMA20 near 1.4048 restores the higher-lows structure, with the week high at 1.4068 overhead
Higher lows intact; lower high at 1.4064 after the BoC spike.
USDCAD has climbed from Monday's 1.3998 week low to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session, extending the rebound off last Friday's 1.3968 low on a firm USD. The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% triggered a two-way swing that was rejected at 1.4064, below the week high. Price has slipped back under the ema20 to the 1.4038 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 41. The 1.4026 day low sits on the 38.2% fib of the rebound and has held three tests today.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4018, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4049, 1.4068
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.4026 day low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib at 1.4018
Failure to hold the 1.3998 week low would unwind this week's rebound
A recovery above the ema20 near 1.4049 and the lower-high line from 1.4068 reopens the week high
Higher lows since Monday; pullback held near 61.8% fib.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows off Monday's 1.3998 week low. NY sessions on Monday and Tuesday drove the advance, and Asia extended it to a 1.4068 week high early today. A London pullback briefly broke below the weekly open to a 1.4026 BoC low, near the 61.8% fib of the week's advance, before the in-line BoC hike to 2.50% sparked a two-way swing and a reclaim of EMA(20). Price now sits just under the Monday high at 1.4055, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 49 after cooling from overnight highs.
Support: 1.40384, 1.4026, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40549, 1.40682
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read; a firm December signal would put the 1.4068 week high in play
An H1 close back below the weekly open at 1.4038 reopens the BoC low at 1.4026 and the higher-lows trendline
Failure to hold 1.4026 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the week low near 1.4000
An H1 close above 1.4068 extends the higher-high sequence; Thursday's PCE data is the next risk after the Fed
USD/CAD has printed higher lows off Monday's 1.3998 week low, and firm USD into today's FOMC drove Tuesday's NY-session rally through the 1.4055 Monday high to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. London trimmed the move to the 1.4026 Wed low, near the 61.8% retracement of the week's impulse. The BoC release then produced a two-way spike to 1.4064 that was rejected below the week high, leaving price at the weekly open below EMA(20), with EMA(50) at roughly 1.4038 and RSI(14) reset from overbought to about 50.
Support: 1.4026, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4047, 1.4055, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 Monday high and 1.4068 week high would negate the BoC rejection and extend the higher-high sequence
Failure to reclaim ema20 near 1.4047 keeps the pullback from the week high in play
Break of the 1.4026 Wed low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.3998 week low and 1.4000 round number
Below the week low, the 1.3968 Friday low is the next reference
Macklem press conference at 14:30 UTC, then FOMC and Warsh at 18:00/18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, pulling back into BoC · RSI 43 · price 1.40393
Higher lows intact; pullback from 1.4068 week high to the weekly open.
Since Monday's open, USD/CAD has built higher lows off the 1.3998 low. Tuesday's NY-session break through the 1.4055 Monday high extended to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session as USD firmed on Fed-hike pricing. London-session selling has since pushed price below EMA(20) near 1.4048 and back onto the weekly open at 1.4038, which sits alongside EMA(50). Wednesday's low at 1.4026 held at the 61.8% retracement of the week advance, keeping the higher-lows line intact, while RSI(14) has eased to the low 40s.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4055, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision and MPR at 13:45 UTC: a hold or cautious hike that lifts price back above the 1.4055 Monday high reopens the 1.4068 week high
H1 close below the 1.4026 Wednesday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the 61.8% fib of the week advance, exposing the 1.4000 round number
Hawkish BoC guidance with upgraded forecasts could extend the pullback toward 1.4000
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.4048 would restore the pullback-within-uptrend read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the BoC move
12:03 UTC
Uptrend since Friday, extension rejected in London · RSI 38 · price 1.40335
Higher lows intact, Wed breakout above Monday high reversed.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. Tuesday's NY session drove the leg that extended to a 1.4068 week high during Asian hours, as USD held two-week highs into the Fed and CAD stayed soft ahead of the BoC. London today unwound that extension in a single 20-pip bar, closing back below the 1.4055 monday high and the 1.4038 week open to sit on the fib 38.2 near 1.4030, now under EMA(20) with RSI(14) down to ~38.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4018, 1.4006
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4055, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (~80% hike priced) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read within hours
Hourly close back above the 1.4055 monday high revives the breakout toward the 1.4068 week high
A break of the fib 50 at 1.4018, where the rising lows line also sits, ends the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4006 swing low opens Friday's 1.3968 low
11:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 46 · price 1.40521
Higher lows since Friday; Mon/Tue cap broken, now retesting.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. The 1.4053-1.4055 area capped NY-session rallies on Monday and Tuesday before giving way in Wednesday's Asia session, with the broad USD bid into the Fed carrying the pair to a week high at 1.4068. London has faded that move back to 1.4052, just under the EMA(20) at 1.4056, with RSI(14) easing into the mid-40s; the pullback remains shallow, holding above the Asia low at 1.4041 and well clear of the 38.2% fib at 1.4030.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4030, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; positioning makes a BoC hold the larger surprise
H1 close below the 1.4041 asia low would turn Wednesday's breakout into a false break and put the 38.2% fib at 1.4030 in view
A break of the higher-low trendline (~1.4020) and the 1.4009 Tuesday low would end the higher-low sequence that has held since Friday
Recovery above the EMA(20) at 1.4056 and a close above the 1.4068 week high would extend the uptrend
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 62 · price 1.40605
Higher lows since Tuesday, breakout above 1.4053 being retested.
USDCAD has climbed for two sessions on a firm USD into the Fed and a cautious CAD ahead of the BoC. Since Tuesday's tue low at 1.4009, the pair has printed a higher-lows sequence. A Tuesday NY breakout cleared the prior high at 1.4053, which had capped Monday's NY spike, and Asia extended to a week high of 1.4068. London's pullback held 1.4051, on both the prior high and the higher-lows trendline, with price pinned just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4053, 1.4038, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and Macklem at 14:30 UTC: a hold vs ~85-90% hike pricing could extend beyond the week high toward the 1.4100 round number
A hike with hawkish guidance could break the higher lows and expose the weekly open at 1.4038, the 50% retracement of the tue-wed leg
H1 close back below the 1.4053 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the BoC
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling at the week high · RSI 60 · price 1.40584
Higher lows since Friday; Monday high reclaimed and held so far.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. Tuesday's NY session reclaimed Monday's high at 1.4055 and the move ran to a week high of 1.4068 in the Asia session, as the USD hit two-week highs into the FOMC. London has eased price back to 1.4058, holding just above EMA(20) near 1.4052, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60 from late-Tuesday extremes; the 50% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday leg sits on the weekly open at 1.4038.
Support: 1.40549, 1.40384, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC with a hike largely priced: a hold could carry price beyond the week high at 1.4068, while hawkish guidance would put the weekly open at 1.4038 in play
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the Monday high at 1.4055 and EMA(20) would recast the breakout as a false break
A sustained push through the week high exposes the 1.4100 round number
A break of the higher lows trendline would shift focus to the 1.4000 psych pivot
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near week high · RSI 61 · price 1.40605
Higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low; Monday high broken and being retested.
USDCAD has carved higher lows off Friday's 1.3968 low. Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 Monday high faded back toward the 1.4000 psych level before Tuesday's NY session rally cleared it, and Asia extended the move to a 1.4068 week high as USD held two-week highs on Fed hike pricing. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 1.4054 and retesting the Monday high. RSI(14) has eased toward 61 from Tuesday's stronger push, showing momentum slowing into the BoC and FOMC.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4038, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 1.4055 Monday high would weaken the breakout read. A slide under the weekly open at 1.4038 would also put the Tue-Wed leg's 61.8% retracement near 1.4031 in play.
A clear break above the 1.4068 week high opens the 1.4100 round number.
A break of the higher-lows trendline, near 1.4018 today, would end the sequence of higher lows that began Friday.
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing would challenge the 1.4068 week high. A hawkish hike would put the 1.4000 psych level back in focus.
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the BoC.
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending to week high · RSI 66 · price 1.40604
Higher lows since Friday; Mon/Tue double cap broken in Asia.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. Tuesday's NY-session leg followed the Consumer Confidence and durables beats, and the Asia session then cleared the 1.4054 prior high, where Monday and Tuesday had both capped, to a week high at 1.4068. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4050 with RSI(14) around 66, short of overbought, while the weekly open at 1.4038 lines up with the 50% level of the Tue–Wed impulse.
Support: 1.4054, 1.40384, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4054 prior high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4038 weekly open breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4009 Tue low
BoC at 13:45 UTC: a hold against the ~85% priced hike could extend price beyond the week high toward the 1.4100 round number
FOMC at 18:00 UTC with press conference at 18:30 UTC is a second shock that could materially shift this read
USD/CAD spent Monday and early Tuesday in a 1.4005–1.4055 range before a steady climb from the NY session yesterday. The pair cleared Monday's prior high near 1.4055, retested it in early Asia and set a fresh week high at 1.4068 as the dollar firmed on pre-FOMC hike bets. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 70 and hourly ranges compressing to roughly 5–7 pips into the BoC/Fed day.
Support: 1.40549, 1.40384, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against the ~85% priced hike, or a dovish hike, could materially shift this read
FOMC statement at 18:00 UTC and Powell's 18:30 UTC presser on the December path is the second event risk today
H1 close back below the prior high at 1.4055 and the higher-lows trendline puts the Tuesday-Wednesday leg into retracement
Loss of the week open at 1.4038, the 50% fib of the Tue-Wed leg, returns price toward the 1.40 pivot range
H1 close above the 1.4068 week high extends the leg toward the 1.4100 round number
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending to fresh week high · RSI 72 · price 1.40639
Higher lows since Monday, Monday high broken.
Monday's gap from Friday's 1.4009 close filled to 1.3998 and the London-NY spike to 1.4055 faded. During the NY session yesterday, though, a run of firm US data pushed the pair off the 1.4009-1.4014 Tuesday London lows. Asia extended the move through the 1.4055 monday high to a week high at 1.4068. Price holds above an ema20 near 1.4048 and RSI(14) sits just above 70. The Asian low at 1.4041 and the weekly open at 1.4038 also mark the 50% retracement of Tuesday's impulse.
Support: 1.40549, 1.40482, 1.40384
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing, or a hawkish hike, could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, press conference 18:30 UTC, is a second volatility event for the session
H1 close back below the monday high at 1.4055 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the weekly open at 1.4038 breaks the sequence of higher lows
Acceptance above the 1.4068 week high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into new week high · RSI 74 · price 1.40638
Higher lows since Tuesday; Monday high cleared.
The week opened at 1.4038 after Friday's 1.3968 low, and Monday's NY-session spike to the 1.4055 monday high faded straight back to 1.4006. From the 1.4009 tuesday low, the NY session drove a steady leg higher on firm US data, including the durable goods beat. The Asia session pushed through the Monday high to a 1.4065 week high, with price stretched well above EMA(20) near 1.4046 and RSI(14) at about 74, overbought.
Support: 1.40549, 1.40464, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40652, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold vs the priced 2.50% hike could extend the move toward the 1.4100 round number, while a hawkish hike threatens the breakout
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with the presser at 18:30, could materially shift the USD leg of this read
An H1 close back below the 1.4055 monday high would turn the breakout into a false break, as on Monday
A break of the higher lows trendline and EMA(20) would expose the 50% retrace of the tuesday impulse near 1.4037
Failure to clear the 1.4065 week high while RSI(14) rolls lower from overbought would point to stalling momentum
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 73 · price 1.40613
Higher lows since Friday, Monday high broken.
USD/CAD has built a run of higher lows from Friday's 1.3968 low. Tuesday's NY-session rally on firm US data, led by the durable goods beat, carried price back above the 1.4038 weekly open, and today's Asia session pushed through the 1.4055 monday high to a week high at 1.4064. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4049 with RSI(14) in the low 70s, and the overnight dip to 1.4041 found demand just above the weekly open.
Support: 1.40549, 1.4049, 1.40384
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the monday high at 1.4055 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4038 would undercut today's 1.4041 higher low and the Tuesday rally structure
BoC decision 13:45 UTC (f/c hike to 2.50%): a hold could extend the move toward 1.4100 psych, while a hawkish hike risks a return to the higher lows line
FOMC 18:00 UTC with presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into new week high · RSI 72 · price 1.40603
Higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low; Monday high broken in Asia.
The pair has carved higher lows off Friday's 1.3968 six-week low. Tuesday's NY session drove the dominant leg, a 40-pip push from 1.4022 that followed the strong US Durable Goods headline and the USD's move to two-week highs. Asia has now cleared the 1.4055 Monday high to a 1.4063 week high, with price well above EMA(20) and RSI(14) in overbought territory after barely pulling back since Tuesday's NY open. Ranges have compressed into the BoC/FOMC double-header, so the breakout comes on thin pre-event conditions.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4044, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC today: a hawkish hike or a surprise hold can override the H1 structure, and the hold scenario carries the larger CAD move
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser can reverse the USD leg that built this rally
An H1 close back below the 1.4055 monday high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4044 would end the run of pullbacks holding above it since Tuesday's NY session
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 1.4000 round number would put Friday's 1.3968 low back in play
Acceptance above the 1.4063 week high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
Higher lows since Monday; pressing above Monday high.
USDCAD gapped up at Monday's open and then sold back to 1.3998. Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 monday high reversed to 1.4006. The NY session on Tuesday drove a 50-pip rally off the 1.4009 tuesday low as USD firmed on durable goods and confidence beats into the FOMC. Asia is now edging through the Monday high to a 1.4059 week high, with EMA(20) near 1.4040 rising under price beside the weekly open and the higher lows trendline intact. RSI(14) is overbought in the mid-70s.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4040, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4055 monday high would mark a false break and return price to the Mon–Tue range
Pullback toward ema20 / 38.2% of the tuesday rally near 1.4040 tests whether the higher lows sequence holds
Loss of the 1.4009 tuesday low breaks the higher lows trendline and reopens the 1.4000 psych pivot
Sustained trade above the week high exposes the 1.4100 round number
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing or a hawkish hike could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: a neutral or disinflation-acknowledging tone could unwind the USD leg
00:03 UTC
Higher lows since Monday, stretched into resistance · RSI 71 · price 1.4049
Tuesday NY leg stalled at the week high; higher-low sequence from 1.3998 intact.
USD/CAD gapped up to the 1.4038 weekly open, set a 1.3998 week low in Monday's Asia session and has printed higher lows since. Tuesday's NY session drove a 45-pip leg off the 1.4009 higher low as the dollar firmed into FOMC on hawkish-hold bets. The advance stalled at 1.4054, matching Monday's 1.4055 week high. RSI(14) sits near 71, and EMA(20) is rising toward the weekly open.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4009, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 week high clears the double cap and opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.4038, now near EMA(20), would put the 50% retrace of Tuesday's leg at 1.4031 in play
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4009 higher low would expose the 1.3998 week low and the 1.40 pivot
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC Wed (hike to 2.50% mostly priced), and a hold could materially shift this read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC with the presser at 18:30 UTC. A neutral tone risks unwinding the USD leg that built Tuesday's rally