USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 68 · price 1.40501
Higher lows since Friday's low, capped by Monday's 1.4055 spike high.
Higher lows have formed since Friday's low at 1.3968, as the post-retail-sales flush faded. Price is back above the weekly open at 1.4038 after a NY-session climb on Tuesday from the 1.4020 area, with the dollar firming into FOMC on beats in durable goods and new home sales. Price is now pressing Monday's week high at 1.4055, a spike that unwound to 1.4006 within three hours. RSI(14) near 68 shows the leg is stretched but not yet diverging.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4009, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4100
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (f/c hike to 2.50%) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4055 week high breaks the Monday-Tuesday range and opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
A second rejection at 1.4055 would set up a double-top read against Monday's spike
Slipping back below the weekly open at 1.4038 returns price to the 1.4000-1.4055 range
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4009 tuesday low exposes the friday low at 1.3968
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 69 · price 1.40475
Higher lows since Monday; Tuesday range break up to the week high.
From Friday's 1.3968 low, the pair has printed higher lows at 1.3998 on Monday and the 1.4009 range low on Tuesday. Tuesday's NY session broke the 1.4009–1.4027 range and carried price back to the 1.4055 week high, which rejected Monday's NY spike. USD firmness after the Durable Goods beat drove the move, and price now sits above the weekly open at 1.4038 and EMA(20) near 1.4035, with RSI(14) near 69 as the advance stalls under the week high.
Support: 1.40384, 1.40086, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40549
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 week high extends the Friday-low-to-week-high impulse; a second rejection there leaves a flat top above the range
Loss of the weekly open at 1.4038 and EMA(20) puts the 1.4009 range low and the higher-lows trendline back in focus
Break below the 1.4000 round number undoes the higher-lows sequence and reopens Friday's 1.3968 low
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the session
Higher lows inside the 1.3968–1.4055 range, price pressing the week high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. Tuesday's NY-session leg cleared the 1.4027 range top and carried price back to Monday's 1.4055 week high, as USD firmed on the Durable Goods beat and stronger CB Confidence. Price holds above the 1.4038 weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4033, with RSI(14) at ~71, now overbought, and ATR(14) compressed to ~8 pips in late NY trade. Monday's NY-open spike into the same week high reversed fully to 1.4006, close to the 61.8% of the Fri-Mon fib.
Support: 1.40384, 1.40275, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40549, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 week high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
A second rejection at the week high, as on Monday, and a return below the 1.4038 weekly open would put the 1.4027 range top back in play
Loss of the higher-lows trendline near 1.4013 and the 1.40 pivot would undo the higher-lows read
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Higher lows since Friday, pressing week high · RSI 71 · price 1.40499
1.4000–1.4055 range with rising lows, top under retest.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low, set during the Canadian retail sales hour. Monday's spike to the 1.4055 week high faded, but NY session buying on Tuesday lifted price off the 1.4009 swing low and back to that week high as USD firmed into the Fed on the durable goods and confidence beats. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4033 and the 1.4038 weekly open, with RSI(14) in overbought territory in the low 70s.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4009, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 week high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
A second rejection at 1.4053–1.4055 would leave a double-top shape at the range ceiling
A close back below the weekly open and EMA(20) turns the retest into a rejection
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4009 swing low puts the 1.3968 friday low back in play
BoC decision and MPR Wed 13:45 UTC, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend within this week's range, testing range top · RSI 69 · price 1.40519
Higher lows since Monday under the 1.4055 week high.
The week opened with a gap up to the 1.4038 weekly open after Friday's 1.3968 low, faded to 1.3998, then printed higher lows at 1.4006 and 1.4009. NY hours drove both upside legs. Monday's spike to the 1.4055 week high fully retraced, while Tuesday's rally on the 1.8% durable goods beat and firmer CB confidence has carried price back to that high. RSI(14) is near 69 and price sits about 20 pips above the rising EMA(20), with the 1.40 pivot holding as the range floor.
Support: 1.40384, 1.40314, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40549, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4055 week high breaks the range top and opens the 1.4100 psych level
A rejection at the week high like Monday's would bring the weekly open and EMA(20) back into play
A close below 1.4009 breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.40 pivot
A pullback holding the 38.2–50% Tuesday rally fib zone (1.4036–1.4031) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Uptrend from Friday low, now testing resistance · RSI 73 · price 1.4049
Higher lows off 1.3968; Tuesday range break into the Monday high.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 six-week low. Today's NY session broke the 1.4009–1.4027 range top as the USD firmed on the Durable Goods beat and stronger CB Consumer Confidence. Price is now back at the Monday high near 1.4055, the level where Monday's NY spike reversed to the 1.4000 psych area, with RSI(14) near 73 and price above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The week open at 1.4038 and the old range top are the first areas below where a pullback would test the breakout.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4027, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 Monday high clears the level that capped this window's opening high and Monday's spike
A drop back inside the range below the 1.4027 range top would repeat Monday's failed NY push
Loss of the higher-lows trendline from Friday's low and of 1.4000 psych would undo the recovery structure
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has carved higher lows off Friday's 1.3968 six-week low, which came after the CAD retail sales release. Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 week high faded to 1.4005. Tuesday held a 1.4009–1.4028 band, between the 38.2% and 61.8% fib of the Friday low to week high leg, before firm US data in the NY session lifted the pair back above the weekly open and EMA(20). Price now sits just under 1.4055, a level that also capped last Wednesday, with RSI(14) near 69 and USD firm into the BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.40384, 1.4027, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40549, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4055 week high breaks the double cap and opens the 1.4100 round number
Failure at 1.4055 followed by a close back below the 1.4038 weekly open and the EMA(20) near 1.4027 returns price to Tuesday's range
A break below the 1.4009 Tuesday low cuts the higher-lows trendline from Friday's low
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (2.50% hike f/c, ~85% priced) and the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3968, pressing into the week-open gap zone below Monday's 1.4055 high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low. Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 monday high gave back just past 50% of that leg, and Tuesday's tuesday low at 1.4009 held twice through Asia and London, keeping price clear of the 1.4000 round number. Firm US data into the NY session (Durable Goods 1.8% vs 0.6%, Dallas Fed beat) lifted price back above the EMA(20) at 1.4024 and into the week open near 1.4040, where Sunday's gap began, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4009, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4040, 1.4055, 1.4059
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 monday high clears the week open gap zone and exposes the 1.4059 prior high
Rejection at the week open followed by a close back below the ema20 at 1.4024 puts the tuesday low at 1.4009 in focus; a break there ends the higher lows sequence
Loss of the 1.4000 round number reopens Friday's 1.3968 low
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Since Friday's NY-session six-week low at 1.3968, USDCAD has printed a sequence of higher lows. Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 Monday high met rejection and retraced to 1.4006, but dips into Tuesday held near the 50% retracement of the Friday–Monday rebound. Firm US data in today's NY session, led by Durable Goods at 1.8% vs 0.6%, lifted price back above the EMA20 toward the 1.4038 weekly open.
Support: 1.4022, 1.40086, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40384, 1.40549, 1.4067
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 Monday high breaks the range top and exposes the 1.4067 Wed high
Failure at the 1.4038 weekly open keeps the 1.4005–1.4055 range read intact
Break below the 1.4009 higher low and the rising trendline turns focus back to the 1.3968 six-week low
H1 closes back under the EMA20 near 1.4022 would signal momentum fading
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Recovering from Friday low, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.40339
Higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low; 1.4009–1.4055 range since Monday.
USDCAD has carved higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 low, set around the Canadian retail sales release. Monday's NY-open spike to 1.4055 then retraced roughly 50–61.8% of the Fri-Mon rally, and Tuesday's 1.4009–1.4027 range held. In the first hour of NY today the USD durable goods beat lifted price through the Tuesday high to just under the 1.4038 weekly open. EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit converged near 1.4019–1.4020 below price, RSI(14) is near 64 and short of overbought, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 10 pips ahead of Wednesday's BoC and FOMC decisions.
Support: 1.4027, 1.4020, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4055, 1.4072
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4038 weekly open exposes the 1.4055 monday high, then last Wednesday's 1.4072 prior high
Slip back below the 1.4027 tue high and the ema20 near 1.4020 would turn today's push into a false break inside the range
Failure at the 1.4009 tue low breaks the rising lows trendline and reopens Friday's 1.3968 low
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today is the last pre-Fed data check
Last week's Wednesday-to-Friday decline from 1.4082 bottomed at the 1.3968 friday low on BoC hike pricing. Monday's first-hour NY spike to the 1.4055 monday high was rejected near the 78.6% retracement as USD firmed. Since then a run of higher lows off the 1.4000 round number has compressed price into a 1.4009–1.4028 Tuesday range. That range sits on the 50% retracement of the wed-fri decline, just below the 1.4038 weekly open, with price holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.40087, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40384, 1.40549
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4028 tuesday high puts the 1.4038 weekly open and the lower highs line near 1.4050 in play
Loss of the 1.4009 tuesday low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the round number at 1.4000, then the friday low
Consumer Confidence today 14:00 UTC as a pre-event USD sentiment check
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read within hours of each other
Monday's first-hour-of-NY spike to the 1.4055 week high was fully rejected. Tuesday's London session has since compressed between the 1.4009 range floor and the 1.4027 tuesday high, with price just above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 56. Higher lows off the 1.3968 friday low, set around the Canada retail sales release, are converging with lower highs from Monday's peak as USD/CAD squares positions into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions. Price sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Friday–Monday rebound, and the 50% level lines up with the range floor.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) and Fed Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger repricing risk
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today for pre-Fed USD tone
H1 close above the 1.4027 tuesday high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.4038 weekly open and the 1.4055 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4009 range floor and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.3998 week low and the 1.4000 pivot
Loss of the 1.3998 week low reopens the 1.3968 friday low
11:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing just below flat EMAs · RSI 50 · price 1.40146
Higher lows since Friday, lower highs since Monday's spike; tight Tuesday range.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Friday's 1.3968 six-week low, but Monday's NY-hours spike to 1.4055 was rejected within three bars. Tuesday has compressed into a 1.4009–1.4027 range between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Friday low to Monday high move. Price is hovering just under flat, converged EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.4017 with RSI(14) pinned at 50, consistent with position-squaring ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close below the tuesday low at 1.4009 and the higher lows line brings the monday low at 1.3998 and the 1.4000 psych level back into focus
A break of the friday low at 1.3968 would turn the higher-low sequence into a lower low
Acceptance above the tuesday high at 1.4027 and the lower highs line reopens the monday high at 1.4055, then the last wk high at 1.4082
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could break the current range
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:04 UTC
Sideways around 1.40, flat EMAs after Friday's low · RSI 53 · price 1.40205
Higher lows since Friday inside a 1.3998–1.4055 band, compressing into Tuesday.
USD/CAD has been pinned around the 1.40 round number since the Friday low at 1.3968, printed on the Canadian retail sales release. The week opened on a gap to 1.4038 that was filled in Monday's Asia session. A first-hour-of-NY spike Monday through the weekly open to the Monday high at 1.4055, just above the 61.8% fib of the Wednesday–Friday decline, was fully reversed, and Tuesday's Asia–London trade has compressed into a 19-pip band between the Tuesday low at 1.4009 and the Tuesday high at 1.4028 as rising lows and lower highs converge; price sits marginally above flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.4018 with RSI(14) neutral at 53, consistent with the pre-BoC/FOMC position squaring flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.40087, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40384, 1.40549
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Tuesday high at 1.4028 and the weekly open at 1.4038 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the Monday high at 1.4055 back in play
Failure to hold the Tuesday low at 1.4009 and the rising lows line exposes the 1.4000 round number, with the Friday low at 1.3968 below
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could break the Tuesday range
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Range after rebound from week low, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 1.40177
Friday's NY-session flush to the 1.3968 week low, around the mixed Canadian retail sales, was bought back above the 1.4000 psych mark. Monday's NY-open spike to 1.4055 (monday high) met rejection back through the 1.4038 weekly open, as pre-FOMC USD short-covering ran into firm CAD ahead of the BoC. Since then price has held a tight 1.4009–1.4027 band, from the asian low to London's session high, sitting on a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 48. Higher lows along the rising trendline from Friday keep the rebound structure intact, while the 1.4001–1.4022 zone of the fib retracement contains the range.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4009 asian low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4000 psych level and the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold 1.4000 reopens Friday's 1.3968 week low
Close above the 1.4027 session high and then the 1.4038 weekly open brings the 1.4055 monday high back into play
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence today 12:30–14:00 UTC could break the intraday range
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Recovering from last week's low, momentum flat · RSI 57 · price 1.40217
Higher lows from Friday's low under a lower-highs line, compressing below the weekly open.
The week opened on a gap higher at 1.4038. The gap filled during Asia to a week low of 1.3998. Monday's NY-open spike to the 1.4055 week high was rejected, which extends the lower-highs sequence from last Wednesday's 1.4082. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4005–1.4027 band, holding marginally above EMA(20). It sits near the 50% retracement of last week's decline, with higher lows intact since Friday's 1.3968 low after Canada retail sales. Pre-FOMC USD short-covering and softer crude have underpinned the pair, but RSI(14) holding in the mid-50s shows little follow-through above the session high at 1.4027.
Support: 1.4018, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4038 weekly open, which is also the 61.8% retracement of last week's decline, opens a retest of the 1.4055 week high and the lower-highs line
A break of the higher-lows line near 1.4011 and the 1.3998 week low would reopen the Friday low at 1.3968
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board confidence (14:00 UTC) today could break the compression range
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday inside a 1.4000–1.4055 range.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since the 1.3968 friday low, set around the Canada retail sales release. Monday's spike into the NY open to the 1.4055 monday high was rejected and faded to 1.4006 through NY hours, and price has since compressed in a 1.4009–1.4024 Asian range above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 56 and the rising lows line intact. The lift tracks a firmer USD into the Fed and softer crude, but price is stalling at the fib 50% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday decline near 1.4025, below the 1.4038 weekly open.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4025, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the rising lows line and the 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.3968 friday low
Acceptance above the 1.4038 weekly open brings the 1.4055 monday high back into play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today could break the 1.4009–1.4024 Asian range
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's low against lower highs from Wednesday; compressing 1.4005–1.4024 range.
The CAD-led slide from Wednesday's 1.4082 high ran into Friday's 1.3968 low. Since then each dip has held higher along a rising trendline, from the Monday low at 1.3998 to today's Asian low at 1.4009, as broad pre-Fed USD short covering and softer oil lifted the pair. The weekly open gap at 1.4038 filled lower in early Monday trade, and the NY-session spike to the Monday high at 1.4055 met rejection near the falling trendline of lower highs. Price is back inside a tight 1.4005–1.4024 range, holding just above EMA(20) around 1.4017 with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4024 range top, which also sits at the 50% retracement of the Wed high–Fri low drop, opens the weekly open at 1.4038 (61.8%) and then the Monday high at 1.4055
Break below the 1.4009 Asian low and the rising trendline exposes the Monday low at 1.3998, with the Friday low at 1.3968 below
US Durable Goods today at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled test of the range
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger tail risk for CAD
Sustained trade above the falling trendline from Wednesday's high would break the lower-high sequence
05:04 UTC
Range after Wed–Fri decline, higher lows forming · RSI 50 · price 1.40165
Higher lows from 1.3968 under lower highs from 1.4082; contracting range.
The Wed–Fri drop from 1.4082 bottomed at the 1.3968 friday low in NY hours, and higher lows have formed since. Monday's opening gap up to the 1.4038 weekly open filled at the 1.3998 monday low in Asia. A NY-open spike to the 1.4055 monday high on the broad USD bid and softer oil met rejection within three bars, and price is now compressed between the 1.4009 asian low and 1.4023 asian high, pinned to a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 1.4016 with RSI(14) at 50.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4038 weekly open (61.8% of the Wed–Fri drop) and the lower highs line near 1.4052 reopens the 1.4055 monday high and 1.4082
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.3998 monday low exposes the 1.3968 friday low
A break of the 1.4009 asian low or 1.4023 asian high ends the current compression around the EMAs
US durable goods (12:30 UTC) and consumer confidence (14:00 UTC) today are the last pre-Fed data
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger tail versus pricing
04:03 UTC
Sideways after last week's decline, compressing · RSI 43 · price 1.40103
Higher lows since Friday's low against lower highs from Wednesday.
USDCAD has been compressing since Friday's NY-session flush to the friday low at 1.3968. Since then it has printed higher lows at 1.3998 (monday low) and 1.4006 (ny low), while a lower-high trendline runs from Wednesday's 1.4082 peak. Monday's NY-open push, driven by the broad pre-Fed USD bid and softer crude, overshot the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday decline and met rejection at the monday high of 1.4055. Price has since slipped back below the weekly open at 1.4038 and now sits on the 38.2% level and the higher-low trendline near 1.4010. It is trading under the ema20 around 1.4016, with RSI(14) in the low 40s through a quiet Asian range.
Support: 1.4006, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ny low at 1.4006 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the monday low at 1.3998, then the friday low at 1.3968
A recovery above the ema20 and the weekly open at 1.4038 puts the monday high at 1.4055 and the lower-high trendline back in play
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today are the first tests of the compression
BoC decision (Wed 13:45 UTC, hike to 2.50% heavily priced) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend stalling, compressing into a band · RSI 47 · price 1.40136
Lower highs from Wednesday vs rising lows since Friday; tightening 1.3998–1.4055 band.
USD/CAD has carved lower highs from Wednesday's 1.4082 peak, while rising lows off Friday's 1.3968 NY-session low have compressed price into a narrowing band as pre-FOMC USD short-covering offsets CAD support from BoC hike pricing. Monday's first-hours-of-NY spike to the 1.4055 Monday high overshot the 1.4038 weekly open and the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday drop. A rejection then sent price back to the 38.2% level, where the Asia low at 1.4010 is holding. Price sits just under the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 1.4016, with RSI(14) flat around 47.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4010 Asia low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.3998 Monday low and the 1.4000 handle
Failure to hold the 1.3998 Monday low puts the 1.3968 Friday low back in play and resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above the 1.4038 weekly open (61.8% of the Wednesday–Friday drop) breaks the lower highs line, with the 1.4055 Monday high next
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could test either edge of the band
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold against ~85% hike pricing is the larger tail
02:03 UTC
Sideways after last week's decline, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 1.40175
Lower highs vs higher lows, coiling above 1.4000.
USD/CAD slid from Wednesday's 1.4082 high to Friday's 1.3968 week low on the CAD-oil bid, then printed higher lows above the 1.4000 psych as crude eased and USD shorts were pared into the Fed. Monday's NY-session spike to the 1.4055 monday high met a sharp rejection and faded back under the 1.4038 weekly open, extending the run of lower highs and leaving price wedged between the 1.4006 higher low and the 50% fib. RSI(14) near 51, with price sitting on a flat EMA(20) and EMA(50), fits a compressed consolidation into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4006, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4025, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4025 fib 50% and the 1.4038 weekly open reopens the 1.4055 monday high and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4006 higher low and the 1.4000 psych exposes the 1.3968 week low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today, then BoC at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC Wednesday, could break the coil either side
1.3968–1.4055 range after lower high capped Monday's spike.
The slide from Wednesday's 1.4082 swing high ran into Friday's 1.3968 six-week low as CAD extended its rally on BoC hike bets. The rebound began Friday on a firmer USD and softer crude. The week opened on a gap to 1.4038. Monday's spike to 1.4055 was fully rejected back toward the 1.4000 round number, below the 61.8% retracement of the slide. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) near 1.4017 with RSI(14) at 51.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4000 round number exposes Friday's 1.3968 six-week low
Acceptance above the weekly open at 1.4038 and the Monday high at 1.4055 would break the lower-high trendline from the 1.4082 swing high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today could test the range edges
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger surprise priced
00:04 UTC
Downtrend stalling, flat EMAs · RSI 49 · price 1.40137
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday range 1.3998–1.4055 holding above Friday's six-week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4082 peak and bottomed at Friday's 1.3968 six-week low, before the slide stalled as oil eased and USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the FOMC. Monday's NY-open spike was rejected at 1.4055, the monday high, close to the 78.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday decline, and fell back below the weekly open at 1.4038. Price now sits just under a flat EMA20/50 cluster near 1.4016 with RSI(14) around 49. Monday's NY low at 1.4006 and the 1.40 round number cap the downside of the range.
Support: 1.40055, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.40384, 1.40549
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3998 (Monday's Asian low, under the 1.40 round number) after losing the ny low at 1.4006 exposes the 1.3968 six-week low
H1 close back above the 1.4038 weekly open and 1.4055 monday high breaks the lower-high line from Wednesday
Holding under the ema20/50 cluster near 1.4016 keeps the range read below the Wed–Fri decline fib midpoint
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday, could materially shift this read