USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 55 · price 1.4051
Higher lows from London low, tight post-rollover band.
USD/CAD rallied off the 1.4009 London low through NY as firm US data kept USD bid, clearing the 1.4028 London high and capping at 1.4054 (day high) into the close. Early Asia is holding a 1-pip-wide band between the 1.4044 rollover low and the day high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) just 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4028, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4054
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4054 day high extends the higher-high chain from the London low
Loss of 1.4044 rollover low breaks the rally support trendline and exposes the 1.4031–1.4036 fib zone and 1.4028 London high
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 58 · price 1.4050
NY breakout above London high, now tight consolidation below 1.4054.
NY session broke above the London high at 1.4027 and extended to a 1.4054 NY high as USD firmed on mostly upbeat US data into the Fed. Post-rollover trade dipped to a 1.4044 rollover low at the 23.6% fib of the NY leg and recovered to 1.4050. Range is now a tight 1.4044–1.4054 into early Asia, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) around 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.4044, 1.4027, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4054 NY high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4044 rollover low (23.6% fib) opens a retest of the 1.4027 London high
Loss of 1.4027 puts the 1.4009 day low back in play and negates the NY breakout
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London low; tight 1.4044–1.4054 range.
A double bottom formed at 1.4009, with the London low matching the Asian low. NY then broke the London high at 1.4027 and extended higher lows to a 1.4054 session high as USD firmed into the Fed. The post-close dip held the 1.4044 rollover low, and price is back near 1.4050 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.40442, 1.4027, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4044 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain
Break of the 1.4054 session high resumes the NY leg; repeated failure there marks a range top
Loss of the trendline from the London low exposes a retest of the 1.4027 London high
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the London low, now a tight post-rollover consolidation.
London swept the Asian low near 1.4009 and reversed. NY then ran about 45 pips to a 1.4054 session high on the firm USD into FOMC. The rollover dip held the 1.4044 swing low just above the 23.6% fib, and price is flat near 1.4048 in thin Asia trade with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40364, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40536
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4050 round number and the 1.4054 session high resumes the HH chain
Failure at the 1.4044 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4036, then the 1.4027 london high breakout area
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold carries the larger move risk
HH/HL chain from 1.4009 London low, now boxed 1.4043–1.4054.
After a London retest of the Asian low near 1.4009, NY cleared the London high at 1.40275 and stair-stepped to a 1.40536 session high as USD firmed on the Durable Goods beat and pre-FOMC positioning. Since late NY the pair has drifted in a tight 1.4043–1.4054 box, with the rollover dip holding above the 1.4043 swing low. Early Asia trade is thin and price sits just under the 1.4050 round number.
Support: 1.4043, 1.40364, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40536 session high resumes the HH chain; 1.4050 round number is the first cap
Break below the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4036, then the london high at 1.40275
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL rally from 1.4009 capped at 1.4054, now a tight sideways range.
USDCAD climbed about 45 pips from the 1.4009 London low through NY as USD firmed into the Fed, and stalled twice at the 1.4054 prior high late in NY. Early Asia is drifting just under EMA20 and holding above the 1.4044 session low, with the 1.4043 swing low sitting on the 23.6% rally fib.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40428, 1.40306
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 1.4031 pullback low, which is the 50% rally fib
M15 close above the 1.4054 prior high resumes the higher-high chain
BoC at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.4009 London low; late-NY range 1.4048–1.4054 now slipping.
London swept the Asian range low at 1.4009 before NY drove a clean HH/HL climb to a 1.4054 session high, with USD firm into the Fed. The thin rollover dip has broken the late-NY range floor at 1.4049 and is testing the 23.6% fib of that rally at 1.4043, with RSI(14) cooling to ~40.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4040, 1.4031
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4054
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4049 range floor restores the late-NY range; above 1.4054 session high extends the HH chain
Failure at the 23.6% fib at 1.4043 and the 1.4040 round number exposes the 1.4031 swing low, which would break the HL sequence
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; rollover liquidity is thin until Asia
NY range break higher, late-NY consolidation, post-rollover dip.
Asia and London held a 1.4009–1.4028 range before NY broke higher from 1.4014 as the USD firmed on Tuesday's strong Durable Goods and CB Confidence prints. Price then stalled under the 1.4054 session high, where a small double top formed, and a thin post-rollover dip has slipped below EMA20 and the 1.4050 round number. It now sits just above the 1.4043 swing low.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4054 session high resumes the NY higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4039
A return inside the Asia-London range below the 1.4028 range high unwinds the NY breakout
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling near session high · RSI 63 · price 1.40507
NY breakout above London high, now compressing 1.4048–1.4054.
London dipped through the Asian low at 1.4009 and reversed. NY then broke the London high at 1.4027 and printed higher highs to a 1.4054 session high as USD firmed into FOMC. Since then price has compressed in a 6-pip range above 1.4048 into the NY close, with RSI(14) cooling to 63 and ATR down near 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.40484, 1.40428, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4048 range low ends the compression; the 1.4043 pullback low is the next pivot
Close above the 1.4054 session high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of 1.4043 exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4036 and the London high at 1.4027 as a retest zone
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Uptrend, compressing at highs · RSI 66 · price 1.4053
NY breakout above London high, HH/HL chain, late-NY tight range under session high.
NY cleared the Asian range and the London high at 1.4027, then stepped up to a 1.4054 session high as USD stayed firm into FOMC. Late NY has compressed in a 1.4048–1.4054 band, with the swing low at 1.4048 holding and RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4043, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4048 swing low breaks the late-NY range; the 1.4043 pullback low is the next intraday pivot
Loss of 1.4043 opens a deeper pullback, with the rally fib 38.2% near 1.4036 and the London high at 1.4027 below
M15 close above the 1.4054 session high extends the HH chain
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC, then FOMC 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-breakout consolidation under 1.4054 session high.
London held the Asian low near 1.4009. NY then broke the 1.4027 london high and ran to a 1.4054 session high as USD stayed firm into FOMC. Late NY has flattened into a 1.4048–1.4054 band, with the 1.4048 range low holding and RSI(14) cooling to about 59 as the NY-session run of higher lows stalls.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4043, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4054 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Close below the 1.4048 range low exposes the 1.4043 swing low at the 23.6% fib of the NY rally
Loss of the 1.4027 london high would unwind the NY breakout
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.4009; Asian range and London high broken in NY, now holding below 1.4053.
London faded to 1.4009 near the Asian range low, then NY took out the Asian high and the 1.4027 London high. The rally ran on firm US data, led by the durables beat, and a USD bid into FOMC. Price is now stalling just under the 1.4053 session high late in NY, holding above the 1.4043 swing low, with RSI(14) cooled to ~61 and ATR near 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40308, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4053 session high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4043 swing low breaks the NY higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 50% at 1.4031
Retest of the 1.4027 London high decides whether the NY breakout holds
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.4009 double bottom, NY breakout above London high, late-NY drift.
London retested the Asian low at 1.4009 and held, forming a double bottom. The NY rally then broke the London high at 1.4027 as USD firmed on the durable goods beat, reaching a 1.4053 session high. Late-NY bars are drifting off that high with RSI(14) cooling to ~62 while the 1.4043 swing low holds.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40275, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4043 swing low exposes a retest of the 1.4027 London high breakout level
M15 close above the 1.4053 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Rally fib 38.2% near 1.4036 sits between the swing low and the London high
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 67 · price 1.40499
NY higher-low chain above broken London high.
London swept the Asian low near 1.4009 before NY broke the London high at 1.4027 and stair-stepped to a session high of 1.4053, with USD firm into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions. Late in the NY session price is stalling at the 1.4050 round number and pressing the rising trendline, with the 1.4043 swing low the nearest higher low.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40308, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Close above the 1.4053 session high resumes the stair-step
Holding the fib 50% at 1.4031 keeps the break of the prior London high at 1.4027 intact
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed decision 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended late NY · RSI 79 · price 1.40517
Higher-low chain since 1.4009 double bottom, Asian high cleared.
London's dip to 1.4009 matched the Asian low and formed a double bottom. NY then broke the 1.4024 Asian high and stepped up through a chain of higher lows to a 1.4053 session high as USD firmed on the durable goods beat into FOMC. Late in NY, price is stalling just under the session high with RSI(14) near 79 and the 1.4049 pullback low holding.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4043, 1.4031
Resistance: 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 higher low breaks the NY higher-low line
Loss of the fib 50% at 1.4031 would retrace half the NY rally
Rejection at the 1.4053 session high with RSI rolling from 79 signals stalling
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London dipped to the 1.4009 Asian low, then the NY session cleared the 1.4028 London high and built a steady HH/HL chain to a 1.4053 session high. USD firmed after the durable goods beat into the Fed. RSI(14) is near 78 with price pinned at the highs after London close.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4028, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 swing low breaks the HL chain
A break of the ny trendline toward the 1.4028 london high, near the 61.8% of the London-NY leg, would mark a deeper retracement
Acceptance above the 1.4053 session high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since 1.4009 London low, Asian range broken above.
London swept the Asian range low at 1.4009, then NY broke the 1.4027 london high. Price ground out higher lows to a 1.4053 session high as USD firmed on the durable goods and consumer confidence beats ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions. RSI(14) near 77 is stretched but not extreme. The 1.4043 swing low from 17:30 UTC is the nearest higher low.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4036, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.4053, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the higher lows trendline and the 38.2% fib at 1.4036 exposes the 1.4027 london high for a retest
Rejection at the 1.4053 session high near the 1.4050 range edge would point to a stall; acceptance above opens the 1.4100 psych level
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since 12:30 UTC; London high broken, price pinned at session high.
NY broke the London high at 1.4028 after firm US data (durables beat, CB confidence jump). It then built a rising trendline of higher lows through 1.4031 and 1.4043 to a fresh session high at 1.4052. The Asian range (1.4009–1.4024) is well below, and RSI(14) near 77 shows a stretched but orderly late-NY grind.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4031, 1.4028
Resistance: 1.4052, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4043 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.4031 higher low and the 1.4028 london high puts price back inside the earlier range
Round number 1.4100 is the next reference if the session high gives way
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Uptrend, steady higher lows late in NY · RSI 74 · price 1.40491
Range break above 1.4027, HH/HL chain since 12:30 UTC.
USDCAD spent Asia and London capped inside a 1.4009–1.4027 range, with the range floor defended twice. The pair broke higher in the first hour of NY after the Durable Goods beat as the USD firmed into the Fed. It has since stepped up along a NY trendline to a 1.4051 session high, with RSI(14) near 74 and the 1.4043 swing low the nearest higher low.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40275, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40508
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and tests the NY trendline
Return below the 1.4027 range top, near 61.8% of the NY leg fib, would mark the breakout as a false break
A clean move through the 1.4051 session high extends the leg; repeated failure there signals a late-NY stall
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the next catalysts that could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 74 · price 1.40487
HH/HL chain since London low; NY broke the London high.
A double bottom near 1.4009 (Asian and London lows) gave way to a NY-session breakout through the 1.4027 London high, with higher highs since into a 1.4049 session high as USD firms into the FOMC. Late in the NY session, RSI(14) sits near 74, hot but in trend. The swing low at 1.4043 and the NY pullback low at 1.4031 define the higher-low chain, with the 1.4050 round number just overhead.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4031, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4031 NY pullback low exposes the 1.4027 London high retest
Acceptance above the 1.4050 round number and session high extends the breakout
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through NY; London high broken, late NY compressing at 1.4043–1.4049.
USDCAD held a double floor at 1.4009, set in the Asian range and again in London. It then broke the 1.4028 London high during the first hour of NY as USD firmed on the Durable Goods beat into FOMC. Late in NY the pair is compressing between the 1.4043 late low and the 1.4049 session high, with RSI(14) near 74 and higher lows still riding rising support.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40306, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.40487
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4049 session high extends the higher-high chain
A close below the 1.4043 late low and rising support opens a pullback toward the 1.4031 pullback low and the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.4028 London high (near the 50% fib) would mark the NY breakout as a false break
BoC decision (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.4009, London range top broken in NY.
Asia and London stayed inside 1.4009–1.4028, with London twice probing the Asian low near 1.4009. In the NY session, firm US data (durables, CB confidence) and a broader USD bid lifted the pair through the london high at 1.4028 to a 1.4049 session high. Late NY is now holding a pullback low at 1.4043 just above the rising trendline, RSI(14) near 73 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4031, 1.4028
Resistance: 1.4049
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 pullback low and the rising trendline would mark the first break in the NY higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.4031 swing low puts the 1.4028 london high retest in play, which is also the 50% level of the rally fib
Acceptance above the 1.4049 session high extends the 1.4009–1.4049 rally
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 73 · price 1.40461
NY breakout above Asia/London range, HH/HL chain.
Firm US durables and CB confidence lifted USD during NY hours. Price broke the 1.4009–1.4028 Asia/London range at the London high and built a clean HH/HL chain along the NY trendline to a 1.4049 session high. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not stretched; the 1.4043 pullback low is the nearest intraday support.
Support: 1.40433, 1.40306, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.40487, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.4043 pullback low and the NY trendline (~1.4039) would break the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.4031 swing low near the 38.2% fib exposes a retest of the 1.4028 london high breakout level
M15 close above the 1.4049 session high and 1.4050 round number extends the NY breakout
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 76 · price 1.4046
NY breakout above Asia/London range, HH/HL chain.
USD/CAD broke the 1.4027 range top during NY hours on the firm US durables and confidence prints, running to a 1.4049 session high on a rising trendline from the 1.4014 low. Asia and London both held the 1.4009 range floor. RSI(14) near 76 is stretched late in NY; the higher low at 1.4035 is first, with the 61.8% of the NY rally fib sitting on the range top.
Support: 1.4035, 1.4027, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4049
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4035 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the NY HH/HL chain
Close back below the 1.4027 range top (61.8% fib) turns the breakout into a false break
Holding above the 1.4049 session high extends the NY leg
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended at session high · RSI 72 · price 1.40452
Double bottom at 1.4009, NY breakout above Asian and London highs, HH/HL chain.
After a double bottom near 1.4009 in Asia and London, USDCAD broke the 1.4027 London high on the beat in US durable goods and climbed in a steady HH/HL chain to a 1.4046 session high after London close. RSI(14) near 72 is warm but not stretched, and price is holding just under the 1.4050 round number.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4027, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close below the NY trendline near 1.4038 breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4027 London high (50% fib) would cancel the breakout read
Acceptance above the 1.4050 round number extends the session-high run
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed decisions Wednesday could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Uptrend, NY leg extending · RSI 73 · price 1.40459
NY break of the Asian/London range, higher-low chain intact.
NY session broke the 1.4009–1.4027 Asian and London range after firm US durables and CB confidence lifted USD. Price has since made higher lows to a 1.4046 session high just under the 1.4050 round number. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not stretched, and price holds above the ema20 near 1.4032, with the latest swing low at 1.4037.
Support: 1.4037, 1.4032, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.4046, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Session high 1.4046 and 1.4050 round number: area to watch for rejection or extension
A close below the 1.4037 swing low and the ema20 at 1.4032 breaks the NY higher-low trendline
Failure back below the 1.4027 London high turns the range break into a false break
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) tomorrow could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Uptrend, NY breakout extending · RSI 62 · price 1.40376
HH/HL chain from London low at 1.4009, now above Asian and London highs.
London swept the Asian low near 1.4009 and reversed. NY then cleared the 1.4027 London high on upside US data (durables, Dallas Fed, CB confidence), printing a session high at 1.4039 with RSI(14) near 62, not stretched. Late NY dips have held the 1.4031 swing low, with the rising trendline and the 38.2% fib clustering at the former London high.
Support: 1.40306, 1.40275, 1.40142
Resistance: 1.40394, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4031 swing low opens a retest of the London high at 1.4028, where the rising trendline and 38.2% fib sit
M15 close below the 1.4014 higher low negates the NY breakout structure
Acceptance above the 1.4039 session high opens the 1.4050 round number
BoC decision (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read; range compression into them is likely after London close
15:47 UTC
Uptrend, at session high · RSI 71 · price 1.4038
NY higher-low chain after break of London high.
The 12:30 UTC Durable Goods beat lifted USD/CAD off a 1.4009 double bottom, which matched the Asian-range and London lows. NY broke the 1.4027 London high and has stacked higher lows along a rising NY trendline, with the latest higher low at 1.4031, into a 1.4039 session high. RSI(14) is near 71, hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.4031, 1.4027, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4027 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the NY trendline and the 1.4031 higher low ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4039 session high brings the 1.4050 round number into view
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under prior high · RSI 63 · price 1.40313
Higher lows from 1.4009 London low, session high capped below prior high.
The London low at 1.4009 retested and held the Asian low. Price has since carved higher lows and cleared the 1.4020 range top and the 1.4027 London high during NY hours on firm US data. The session high at 1.4037 stalled just under the 1.4038 prior high, with RSI(14) near 63 and the 1.4025 swing low the nearest pivot.
Support: 1.40249, 1.4020, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40381
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4038 prior high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4025 swing low breaks the higher lows and puts the 1.4020 range top back in focus
Loss of the 1.4009 london low negates the double bottom
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 61 · price 1.40343
Higher-low chain from 1.4009 London low; Asian range and London high broken during NY.
USD/CAD held the 1.4009 London low, which matched the Asian low. NY then broke the Asian range top and the 1.4027 London high on firm US data and broad USD strength, building a higher-low trendline to a 1.4037 session high. Price is now just under the 1.4039 prior high, and RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 1.40313, 1.40275, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40373, 1.40392
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4031 higher low breaks the micro HL chain and the higher-low trendline
Slip back below the 1.4027 london high, near the 38.2% fib, would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.4039 prior high clears the 24h window high
Wednesday's BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) decisions are the next catalysts; pre-event squaring may keep ranges compressed
15:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into NY · RSI 64 · price 1.40344
Higher lows since the 1.4009 double bottom; London high broken.
The rebound from the 1.4009 double bottom, set by matching Asian and London lows, broke the 1.4028 London high early in NY as USD firmed on today's Durable Goods and confidence beats. The session high at 1.4037 sits just under the 1.4040 prior high. RSI(14) is near 64, not stretched, and higher lows are holding along the rising trendline.
Support: 1.40275, 1.4022, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40373, 1.40401
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4028 London high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4022 swing low and the rising trendline would end the higher-low chain
Clearance of the 1.4040 prior high would take price above yesterday's range
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next major risk to this structure
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows in NY · RSI 65 · price 1.40333
Breakout above London high, HL chain from 1.4009.
A double btm at 1.4009 (Asia and London lows) gave way to a NY breakout through the 1.4027 london high, with a session high at 1.4036 as USD firmed into Wednesday's Fed and BoC. Pullbacks since have held above the old London high and the 12:30 UTC ny swing low at 1.4014. RSI(14) sits near 65, not stretched.
Support: 1.40275, 1.40142, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40357, 1.40476
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4027 london high negates the breakout and returns price to the Asian range
Clearance of the 1.4036 session high opens the prior high at 1.4048 from yesterday's NY session
Loss of the 1.4014 ny swing low breaks the HL chain; 1.4009 double btm is the range floor
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 60 · price 1.40293
HL chain 1.4009 → 1.4014; NY broke the London high, now retesting.
Buyers defended the asian low at 1.4009 during London, then built higher lows. The 1.4014 swing low held into NY, where price cleared the 1.4027 london high and printed a session high at 1.4036 as USD firmed ahead of the Fed. Price is now sitting on the broken london high with RSI(14) near 60 and no stretch.
Support: 1.40275, 1.40142, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40357, 1.40476
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4027 turns the break into a false break and returns price to the Asian/London range
Loss of the 1.4014 swing low breaks the higher-low chain on the higher lows trendline
Acceptance above the 1.4036 session high exposes the 1.4048 prior high from yesterday's NY session
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday are the next event risk; positioning into them can chop the late-NY tape
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 62 · price 1.40295
Higher lows from 1.4009; NY broke the London high, then rejected.
Price held a double bottom at the 1.4009 Asian low, then the NY session cleared the 1.40275 London high on a firm USD into the Fed and BoC decisions. The 14:00 UTC US data bar spiked to a 1.4036 session high and was rejected, leaving a long upper wick. RSI(14) near 62 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.40275, 1.4009, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40357, 1.4051
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.40275 london high as support keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it leaves a false break.
An M15 close above the 1.4036 session high opens the path to the 1.4051 prior high from yesterday's NY session.
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.4009 asian low exposes the 1.4000 round number.
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next major event risk, so pre-event positioning may keep ranges tight.
Higher lows off 1.4009, NY breaking above London high.
NY open has cleared the London high at 1.4027 and the Asian range top. That extends a higher-low sequence off the 1.4009 double low, which began after the 12:30 UTC durable goods beat added to the firm USD tone; RSI(14) is near 68. Overhead, the 1.4040 prior break, where yesterday's NY selloff accelerated, comes before the 1.4055 window high.
Support: 1.40275, 1.40142, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.4040, 1.40549
What it said to watch
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could jolt the breakout bar
M15 close back below the 1.4027 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4014 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
A close above the 1.4040 prior break exposes the 1.4055 window high
BoC Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the event risks capping conviction into tomorrow
13:46 UTC
Range, pressing the top · RSI 63 · price 1.40263
Higher lows inside the 1.4009–1.4029 day range.
After yesterday's NY slide from the 1.4055 prior high, USDCAD has held a 1.4009–1.4029 range, with the Asian and London lows forming a double bottom at the 1.4009 range low. The firm Durable Goods beat at 12:30 UTC lifted price off the 1.4014 higher low to a 1.4029 session high in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) sits at 63, not stretched.
Support: 1.40142, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.4029, 1.40546
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4029 session high breaks the range top and opens 1.4055 prior high
Loss of the 1.4014 higher low breaks the London-NY higher-lows line
Break below the 1.4009 range low invalidates the double bottom
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, 15 minutes out, could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building in NY · RSI 61 · price 1.40251
20-pip range 1.4009–1.4029 since Asia, NY pressing range top.
Early NY has pushed USDCAD to a session high at 1.4029, only marginally above London's 1.40275 top, off a higher low at 1.40142 after dip demand held the London low at 1.40086 near the 1.4000 psych level. Firm USD into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions is keeping the range floor supported; RSI(14) near 61 is neutral, and ATR around 5.5 pips signals a compressed tape.
Support: 1.40142, 1.40086, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4029, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4029 session high exposes yesterday's prior high at 1.40549
Loss of the 1.40142 higher low breaks the rising support line and puts the 1.40086 London low back in play
Break of 1.4000 psych below the London low would end the range read
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt the range; BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) Wednesday are the larger structural risks
13:16 UTC
Sideways, short-term higher lows into range top · RSI 58 · price 1.40266
1.4009–1.4028 range since Asia; third test of the session high.
USDCAD has held a 1.4009–1.4028 range since the Asian session. Demand at the Asian low twice (03:45 and 10:30 UTC) and a higher-low chain from 1.4014 brought price back to the London session high in the first hour of NY. The headline Durable Goods beat at 12:30 UTC fed the latest leg as USD firmed into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.40142, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4028 session high breaks the range and opens the 1.4055 prior high
Loss of the 1.4014 higher low returns focus to the 1.4009 asian low and the 1.4006 prior low, with 1.4000 psych just below
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC is the next intraday catalyst
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC, with the Fed at 18:00 UTC, could reset this range entirely
Tight session range 1.4009–1.4027, higher lows since London dip.
USDCAD is boxed in a 1.4009–1.4027 band, with pre-BoC/Fed position squaring keeping ranges tight. London's push to the 1.4027 london high was rejected, and the drop to the 1.4009 range low at the Asian low drew demand. Since then a higher low at 1.4014 has lifted price back toward range top in the first hour of NY, shrugging off the mixed Durables print, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) only ~5 pips.
Support: 1.40142, 1.40086, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high breaks the session range and opens the 1.4055 prior high
Loss of the 1.4014 higher low breaks the rising trendline and returns focus to the 1.4009 range low and 1.4000 psych
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt the range; Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions are the larger reset risk
Range 1.4009–1.4027 since Asia, double bottom at range floor.
USDCAD is ranging between 1.4009 and 1.4027, with the London session high at 1.4027 capping twice and the 1.4009 Asian low holding again at 10:30 GMT to form a double bottom. The Durable Goods bar at 12:30 GMT dipped to 1.4014 and recovered, extending the higher-lows line. RSI(14) is flat near 53 as positions are squared ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.40142, 1.40086, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 session high breaks the range and opens 1.4055, the prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4009 Asian low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 1.4000 psych level
A break of the 1.4014 durables low snaps the higher-lows line
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT could shift the range read
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 GMT) decisions on Wednesday are the main volatility risk
Contained in a 1.4009–1.4027 range since yesterday's NY afternoon. London was capped repeatedly at the 1.4027 high, dipped to a 1.4009 low matching the Asian range floor, then printed a lower high at 1.4026. Price is back under the ema20 near 1.4019 with RSI(14) ~41 and ATR ~5 pips, as positions are squared ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed.
Support: 1.4009, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.40275, 1.4055
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT lands on the current bar and could force a break of the 1.4009–1.4027 range
M15 close below the london low at 1.4009 exposes the prior NY low at 1.4006 and the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the london high at 1.4027 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the prior high at 1.4055
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then BoC and Fed on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 48 · price 1.40166
18-pip range 1.4009–1.4028, lower highs since London.
USDCAD has held a 1.4009–1.4028 range since Monday's NY sell-off. London was rejected three times under the 1.4028 london high, and the late-London rebound off the 1.4009 range low stalled at a 1.4026 lower high. Price is now back at mid-range below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR around 5.5 pips as pre-BoC/Fed squaring keeps moves tight.
Support: 1.40086, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40256, 1.40275, 1.4055
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC lands at the NY open and could force a break of the range
M15 close above the 1.4028 london high breaks the range; Monday's 1.4055 prior high is the next reference above
Failure to hold the 1.4009 range low exposes the 1.4006 prior low and the 1.4000 handle
A move back above the 1.4026 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence inside the range
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed decisions Wed are the larger catalysts for this pair
1.4009–1.4027 range, higher lows forming off the 10:30 UTC low.
London session has held a tight 1.4009–1.4027 range. The 10:30 UTC dip to the london low at 1.4009 was rejected at the same level as the Asian low, and price has since rebounded toward the range top beneath the london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53. A firmer USD is keeping the pair off the 1.4000 round number as the London-NY transition gets under way, with positioning squared ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.40086, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Consumer Confidence at 14:00, could break the 1.4009–1.4027 range during NY hours
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high opens the path toward the 1.4055 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4009 london low exposes the 1.4006 prior low and the 1.4000 round number
A break of the rising line from the 10:30 low would undo the higher-low sequence
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed decisions Wednesday could materially shift this read
1.4009–1.4027 range; equal lows at range low, price back near range top.
London's push above the Asian range stalled at the 1.4027 london high, and the drop to the 1.4009 range low matched the Asian low before price rebounded into the 1.4024 area ahead of NY open. Late London is pinned between those levels as USD firmness meets pre-BoC/Fed squaring that keeps CAD firm around 1.4000. RSI(14) is neutral near 53, and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.40086, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high breaks the range and exposes Monday's 1.4055 prior high
Repeat rejection at 1.4027 keeps the range intact, with the 1.4009 range low back in play
Loss of the 1.4009 range low opens the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.4000 round number pivot
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6%) and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the range during NY hours
11:31 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 45 · price 1.40172
18h range 1.4009–1.4027 after Monday NY spike faded.
London's push above the Asian range high stalled at the london high, 1.4027, and price slid back to retest the asian low at 1.4009. Demand stepped in there for a second time, and the bounce has retraced about half the drop on the London high-low fib. The pair is pinned near the 1.4000 round number as a firm USD offsets CAD strength ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4009 breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the london high at 1.4027 invalidates the range read; Monday's prior high at 1.4055 is the next reference
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the session range
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) decisions Wednesday are likely to keep conviction capped inside the range
Range 1.4009–1.4027, false break up then low sweep.
London pushed through the Asian high at 1.4023, but the move stalled at 1.4027 (london high). Price then swept the Asian low at 1.4009 and reclaimed it, and now sits mid-range near 1.4020 with RSI(14) neutral at 48. A firm USD into Wednesday's Fed and BoC decisions keeps the pair pinned near the 1.40 round number, with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high clears the session range and exposes the 1.4055 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4009 asian low after the sweep exposes the 1.4006 prior low and the 1.4000 round number
Rejection again at the 1.4023 asian high keeps the London swing capped below the 61.8% retracement
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could break the range during NY hours
Late London: price slipped out of the 1.4016–1.4028 morning range and tagged the Asian low at 1.4009, where buyers stepped in, leaving it mid-range below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 46. Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 prior high has fully faded, with CAD holding firm into Wednesday's BoC.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4009 asian low and 1.4006 swing low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4024 asian high and 1.4028 session high would reopen a move toward the 1.4055 prior high
Rebound stalling near the 61.8% of the london drop (~1.4020) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday range, London leg fading · RSI 39 · price 1.40117
London false break above Asian high, back near Asian low.
London pushed through the Asian high at 1.40235 but stalled twice at the London high near 1.4027. Price has since given back the whole London leg to sit just above the Asian low at 1.40087, as positioning squares ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions. RSI(14) ~39 and ATR ~5 pips: momentum is soft, not stretched.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40235, 1.40275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40087 asian low exposes the 1.40055 prior low and the 1.4000 psych pivot
Recovery back above the 1.40162 london low returns price to mid-range; only a close above the 1.40235 asian high revives the London leg
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the range at NY open
BoC and Fed decisions Wed are the main event risk; intraday ranges may stay compressed until then
10:16 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift in London · RSI 45 · price 1.40159
London failed above the Asian high and is back inside the range.
London lifted USDCAD above the 1.4009–1.4023 Asian range but stalled three times at the 1.4027 london high, inside the 38.2–50% fib zone of yesterday's 1.4055–1.4006 drop. The 10:00 UTC bar slipped to a new london low at 1.4014 as pre-BoC/Fed position squaring keeps the pair pinned near 1.40.
Support: 1.40142, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high breaks the London range and the drop fib cap
Failure to hold the 1.4009 asian low exposes yesterday's 1.4006 swing low and the 1.4000 pivot
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC can extend the range
Prior high 1.4055 remains the upper bound of the 24h range
BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC on Wed 28 Oct are the main event risk
10:03 UTC
Flat, intraday range · RSI 52 · price 1.40209
London range 1.4016–1.4027 inside Monday's 1.4005–1.4055 band.
London pushed above the Asian range (1.4009–1.4023) and stalled at the 1.4027 session high three times. Price has slipped back to 1.4021, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR around 5 pips. Higher lows off the Asian low hold the rising lows line, with 1.4016 the London low, as USD firmness and pre-BoC/FOMC position-squaring keep the pair pinned just above the 1.4000 psych pivot.
Support: 1.4016, 1.40087, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 session high opens Monday's 1.4055 NY high
Loss of the 1.4016 london low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.4009 asian low and 1.4000 psych
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the London range
09:47 UTC
Sideways, mild higher lows since Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.40222
London consolidation above the Asian range, 1.4016–1.4027.
London cleared the Asian range top near 1.4023 but stalled at the 1.4027 london high, while dips held the 1.4016 london low twice. Rising lows from the 1.4009 asian low keep price just above both EMAs as a firm USD and pre-BoC/FOMC squaring keep USDCAD bid off 1.4000. Range is tight, with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4009, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high opens the path back toward the 1.4055 ny high
Break below the 1.4016 london low and the rising lows line puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 1.4009 asian low
Loss of 1.4009 exposes the 1.4006 prior low and the 1.4000 pivot
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the London range
BoC and FOMC decisions Wednesday could materially shift this read
London lifted USDCAD above the Asian range top at 1.4023 to a 1.40275 london high. After a rejection and a dip to the 1.40162 london low, price is retesting that high on a firmer USD and pre-BoC position squaring. Higher lows run from the 1.40087 asian low, and price sits at the 38.2% retrace of Monday's 1.40549–1.40055 sell-off, with the 50% fib at 1.40302 just above.
Support: 1.40162, 1.40087, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40302, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40275 london high opens the 50% fib at 1.40302, then the monday high at 1.40549
Break of the 1.40162 london low undercuts the rising support line and exposes the asian low at 1.40087 and 1.4000 psych
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range
BoC at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday keep conviction thin; ranges may compress into the events
09:17 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.40175
Failed break above Asian high, back inside the range.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4023 to a London high of 1.40275. It stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of yesterday's NY drop from the 1.4055 NY high, then rotated back toward the London low at 1.4016. Price is sitting just below EMA20 and on EMA50, with RSI(14) flat near 48 as USD firmness and CAD strength offset ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4009, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.40275, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.40275 London high negates the false break and brings the 50% retrace near 1.4030, then the 1.4055 NY high, into view
Break of the 1.4016 London low exposes the 1.4009 Asian low and the 1.4000 psych level
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the session range
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) decisions on Wednesday could materially shift this read
London false break above Asian range, back inside 1.4009–1.4023.
London pushed through the Asian high at 1.4023 to a session high of 1.40275, which also sits near the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's 1.4055–1.4006 drop. The move was rejected and price is back inside the Asian range near 1.4017. The pair is holding just above the 1.4000 pivot, with the USD firm and positioning squared ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4009, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.40275, 1.4055
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.40275 session high negates the false-break read and puts the 1.4055 prior high in view
Loss of the 1.4016 London low breaks the rising trendline from the Asian low
A drop through the 1.4009 Asian low exposes yesterday's 1.4005 swing low and the 1.4000 pivot
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the Asian range
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the larger event risk for this structure
Higher lows from 1.4009 Asian low, capped at 1.4027 session high.
London pushed just through the 1.4023 Asian high but stalled at a 1.4027 session high, with the 07:30 UTC rejection leaving a 1.4016 london low that still holds the rising trendline. Price is sitting at the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's NY drop from the 1.4055 prior high to the 1.4006 prior low, with RSI(14) near 57 as a firm USD into FOMC/BoC keeps the pair above 1.4000.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4009, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 session high opens the 50% retrace near 1.4030, then the 1.4055 prior high
Break of the 1.4016 london low and the rising trendline returns price to the 1.4009 asian low and 1.4006 prior low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours; BoC and Fed decisions land Wednesday
08:32 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.40224
Asian range 1.4009–1.4023, London probing the top.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 NY high fully reversed to 1.4006, leaving a tight 1.4009–1.4023 Asian range. Early London pushed above the Asian high to a 1.4028 London high but saw rejection twice. Lows have stepped up from the 1.4009 Asian low to the 1.4016 London low as USD stays firm into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions. Price sits near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib.
Support: 1.4016, 1.40087, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4028 london high opens the 50% NY selloff fib near 1.4030, then the 1.4055 NY high
A break below the 1.4016 london low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4009 asian low and 1.4000 psych
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the session range
08:16 UTC
Intraday grind higher off Asian low · RSI 61 · price 1.40245
Higher lows since 04:45 UTC, testing Asian range top.
London open pushed USD/CAD above the Asian high at 1.4023 to a london high of 1.4027. The dip held 1.4016 for another higher low, and price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's NY high-to-low drop, with a firm USD ahead of FOMC and BoC driving the bid.
Support: 1.40234, 1.4016, 1.40087
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.40302, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.4027 opens the 50% fib at 1.4030, then the 61.8% near 1.4036
Slip back below the asian high at 1.4023 and the london low at 1.4016 breaks the higher-low chain toward the asian low at 1.4009
Yesterday's ny high at 1.4055 is the next upside reference if the fib zone gives way
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift this read; BoC and Fed decisions land Wednesday
Higher lows from 1.4009 Asian low, pressing the Asian range top.
Early London pushed through the Asian high at 1.4023 to a 1.4027 london high, then met rejection. The dip held the 1.4016 london low and price is back at the range top, so the higher-low trendline from the 1.4009 asian low is intact. A firmer USD into FOMC and softer crude have underpinned the grind, while yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 prior high has been fully retraced.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4009, 1.4006
Resistance: 1.4027, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4027 london high clears the Asian range and opens a path toward the 1.4055 prior high
Loss of the 1.4016 london low breaks the higher-low trendline, exposing the 1.4009 asian low and 1.4006 prior low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then BoC and Fed on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Sideways, early-London pop faded · RSI 54 · price 1.40169
Range 1.4006–1.4027 since Monday NY; Asian-high false break.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 1.4024 to a 1.4027 London high, then reversed into the Asian range near the 23.6% retracement of Monday's 1.4055–1.4006 drop. The base has now held three times, at the Monday low 1.4006 and the Asian low 1.4009, with pre-FOMC USD firmness and softer oil cushioning dips.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.4027, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4006 Monday low breaks the intraday base and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Reclaiming the 1.4027 London high puts the 38.2% retracement and the path toward the 1.4055 Monday high back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Conference Board confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the Asian range during NY hours
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed decisions on Wednesday are the larger event risk for this range
07:32 UTC
Mild intraday uptrend inside a wider range · RSI 66 · price 1.40223
Higher lows off the 1.40087 Asian low, capped at the Asian range top.
Asia built a higher-low chain from the 1.40087 Asian low. London open poked through the Asian range top at 1.40235 to a 1.40261 london high before a rejection back to 1.4022; RSI(14) is near 66. Price sits around the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's NY spike-and-reversal from the 1.40549 prior high to the 1.40055 ny low, with the pre-Fed USD bid and softer crude as the backdrop.
Support: 1.40164, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40261, 1.40392, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40261 london high clears the Asian range and the 38.2% retrace, exposing the 1.40392 swing high and then the 1.40549 prior high
Break below the rising trendline and the 1.40164 higher low returns price to the Asian range
Loss of the 1.40087 asian low and 1.40055 ny low would confirm a lower-low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift this read; BoC 13:45 UTC and Fed Wednesday are the larger risk
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, capped at the London session high.
USDCAD poked above the 1.4023 Asian high into the London open, set a 1.4026 session high, then closed back under it. The move was a higher-low climb off the 1.4009 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 67, and it has stalled at the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's NY selloff from 1.4055. A firmer USD and softer crude are behind the two-session lift.
Support: 1.40164, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.40261, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4026 session high clears the NY selloff 38.2% and opens the path toward the 1.4055 prior high
Break of the 1.4016 swing low snaps the higher-low trendline and returns price to the Asian range
Loss of the 1.4009 Asian low and 1.4006 prior low brings 1.4000 back into view
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; BoC and FOMC on Wednesday are the larger risk
07:03 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher into London · RSI 68 · price 1.40226
Higher lows pressing Asian range top 1.4024.
Yesterday's NY session spike to the 1.4055 NY high met rejection and fully reversed to a 1.4006 NY low, leaving a tight Asian range between 1.4009 and 1.4024. A higher-low sequence off the Asian low has price pressing the range top into the London open, a level that has capped four times and sits near the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, with firm USD and softer oil as the backdrop.
Support: 1.40164, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4024 range top breaks the Asian range and opens the path toward the 1.4055 NY high
Loss of the 1.4016 higher low and the Asian trendline returns focus to the 1.4009 Asian low and 1.4006 NY low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the intraday read ahead of Wednesday's BoC and FOMC
06:46 UTC
Tight range, grinding into range top · RSI 61 · price 1.40202
Higher lows from Asian low; Asian high capping.
Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 prior high fully reversed to a 1.4006 prior low, and Asia has held a narrow 1.4009–1.4024 range. Higher lows since the 03:45 UTC Asian low have price pressing the Asian high into London, with a first rejection there at 06:00 UTC. Softer crude and the pre-Fed USD bid are keeping a floor under the pair.
Support: 1.40164, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4024 Asian high breaks the range and opens the path toward the 1.4055 prior high
Loss of the 1.4016 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 1.4009 Asian low and the 1.4006 prior low back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could expand the range ahead of Wednesday's BoC and FOMC
06:31 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in late Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.40189
Tight Asian range 1.4009–1.4024, rising lows into range top.
Yesterday's NY-open spike to the 1.4055 prior high fully unwound to a 1.4006 prior low. Since then USD/CAD has held a tight 1.4009–1.4024 Asian range near 1.4020, with a firm USD and softer oil underpinning it. Rising lows off the 1.4009 Asian low pushed into the 1.4024 Asian high, where the 06:00 UTC bar printed a rejection ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40164, 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4024 Asian high breaks the range, with the 1.4055 prior high next overhead
Loss of the 1.4016 swing low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 1.4009 Asian low and 1.4006 prior low back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6%) could materially shift this read
Positioning into Wednesday's BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed decisions keeps ranges compressed until a catalyst
Asian range 1.4009–1.4023, price retesting range top.
Asia held a tight 1.4009–1.4023 range after yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 ny high fully reversed. Rising lows since 03:45 UTC lifted price back to the asian high, where the 06:00 bar wicked to 1.4024 and closed below. A firm pre-Fed USD and softer oil keep the pair pinned near 1.4020 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4023 asian high breaks the overnight range and opens the path to the 1.4055 ny high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 1.4009 asian low puts the 1.4000 round number in play
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could break the range; BoC and Fed on Wednesday can materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4009–1.4023 after full reversal of NY spike; intraday higher lows pressing range top.
Monday's NY session spike to the 1.4055 ny high fully reversed to a 1.4006 ny low, roughly 30% retraced since. Asia has held a tight 1.4009–1.4023 range as USD firms into the FOMC and BoC. Late Asia, ahead of London open, intraday higher lows off the 03:45 UTC asian low have lifted price to 1.4020, testing the range top at 1.4023 with RSI(14) ~63 and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 range top opens the path toward the 1.4055 ny high
Break of the higher lows and loss of the 1.4009 asian low exposes the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.4000 round number
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then BoC and Fed decisions Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 ny high fully unwound to a 1.40055 prior low, and price has been boxed in a narrow band since. Firmer USD into the FOMC and softer oil have lifted the pair off the 1.4009 asian low, and late Asia is now pressing the 1.4023 asian high with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 asian high, then yesterday's 1.4026 london high, breaks the range and puts the 1.4055 ny high in view
Failure back under the 1.4009 asian low exposes the 1.40055 prior low
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the Asian range
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could jolt the range ahead of Wednesday's BoC/FOMC
05:17 UTC
Sideways after NY spike unwound · RSI 54 · price 1.40177
Tight Asian range 1.4009–1.4023, late-Asia push toward range top.
NY's spike to the 1.4055 ny high fully reversed into a 1.4006 ny low, and the pair has been boxed in a 1.4009–1.4023 Asian range since, with late-Asia bars now grinding up toward the asian high. Firmer USD into the Fed and softer oil are holding price above the 1.4000 round number, while the asian high lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the NY selloff fib near 1.4024.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.4055 ny high back in play
Failure at the asian low of 1.4009 exposes the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.4000 round number
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC, ~7h out, could break the range during NY hours
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the larger event risks for this read
05:03 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike · RSI 58 · price 1.40165
Tight Asian range 1.4009–1.4023 inside 1.4006–1.4055 day range.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 ny high was rejected and fully unwound to the 1.4006 ny low by late NY. Asia has held a 1.4009–1.4023 range, with the lift to the asian high tracking softer oil and a firm USD into the Fed and BoC. Late Asia session, price sits mid-range at the 23.6% of the NY selloff fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4009, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 asian high puts the 38.2% fib at 1.4024 and 50% at 1.4030 in play
Loss of the 1.4009 asian low and the 1.4006 ny low exposes the 1.4000 round number
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC and consumer confidence at 14:00 UTC are the main intraday catalysts
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC Wednesday keep ranges compressed until the decisions
04:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY reversal · RSI 46 · price 1.40127
Tight Asian range inside Monday's 1.4006–1.4055 swing, lower highs.
Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 ny high fully reversed to a 1.4006 ny low. Late in the Asia session, price is holding in a 14-pip 1.4009–1.4023 range with lower highs, and the asian high sits just under the 38.2% retracement of the NY drop. A firm USD and softer crude are holding the pair above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4009 asian low exposes the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the 1.4023 asian high and 38.2% fib of the NY drop reopens the 1.4055 ny high
London open is the first test of the Asian range; US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could break it
BoC decision and FOMC on Wednesday could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Sideways to soft after NY spike reversal · RSI 41 · price 1.40113
Post-NY range 1.4006–1.4023, lower highs in Asia.
Monday's NY-session spike to the 1.4055 NY high on the broad USD bid fully reversed to a 1.4006 swing low, leaving a false break above the London high. Asia capped twice at the 1.4023 Asian high and is now drifting at the Asian low near 1.4009 on lower highs. RSI(14) sits at ~41 and ATR is a thin 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4006 swing low breaks the post-NY range floor and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4023 Asian high invalidates the lower-highs read
London open is the next test of the Asian range; Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift the NY read
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC decisions Wednesday could materially reset this range
04:17 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside Asian range · RSI 41 · price 1.40098
Post-spike range 1.4005–1.4023, lower highs since 01:15 UTC.
Monday's NY-open spike to the 1.4055 NY high was fully unwound to the 1.4005 NY low by late NY. Asia's push to the 1.4023 Asian high on pre-Fed USD demand stalled near the 38.2% retrace of the NY decline. Lower highs since then have the pair pressing the 1.4009 Asian low late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4009 Asian low opens the 1.4005 NY low and the 1.4000 round number
Close back above the 1.4023 Asian high / 38.2% of the NY decline breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
London open around 08:00 UTC typically sets the break of the Asian range
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could expand the range ahead of Wednesday's BoC and FOMC
04:02 UTC
Sideways, mild downward drift in Asia · price 1.40102
Asian range 1.4009–1.4023, lower highs, price at range floor.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.40087, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40162, 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4009 asian low exposes the 1.4005 ny low and the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4016 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 1.4023 asian high
A move back toward the 1.4055 day high would need to clear the 38.2% of the NY reversal near 1.4024
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could break the Asian range
03:46 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, pressing range floor · RSI 44 · price 1.40109
1.4010–1.4023 range since late NY; Asian high rejected.
The NY spike to 1.4055 on pre-Fed USD demand and softer oil fully reversed into the 1.40055 NY low. Since then the bounce has stalled twice at 1.4023, just under the 38.2% retracement of the NY selloff, the second time at the Asian high. Late Asia session price now sits on the 1.4010 range floor, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 range floor exposes the 1.40055 NY low and the 1.4000 psych level
Break above the 1.4023 Asian high clears the 38.2% retracement of the NY selloff and reopens the range top
US durable goods and Consumer Confidence later today, the last inputs before Wednesday's BoC and FOMC, could reshape the range
1.4055 NY high stays the upper reference unless the 1.4023 Asian high gives way
03:31 UTC
Sideways after NY spike reversal · RSI 51 · price 1.40135
Tight Asian range 1.4010–1.4023 inside the 1.4006–1.4055 day range.
The NY session spike to the 1.4055 day high on pre-FOMC USD firmness was fully rejected, falling to the 1.4006 NY low, about 16% of the move retraced since. Late Asia is compressing between the 1.4010 asian low and the 1.4023 asian high, RSI(14) flat near 51, price just under both EMAs and ATR(14) contracted to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.40099, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
London open break of the 1.4010 asian low or 1.4023 asian high sets the session direction
A close below the 1.4006 ny low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4026 London high reopens the day high at 1.4055
US durable goods today, then BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.4010–1.4023, lower high under 1.4055.
NY's push to the 1.4055 ny high on the pre-Fed USD bid fully unwound to a 1.4006 swing low. Late in the Asia session, price is holding inside a 1.4010–1.4023 range, and the asian high was rejected near the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop. RSI(14) sits near 50 and ATR is about 3.6 pips, so there is no setup in play.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 asian low exposes the 1.4006 swing low and the 1.4000 psych level
M15 close above the 1.4023 asian high, through the 38.2% retrace, opens the path back toward the 1.4055 ny high
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today are the likely triggers for breaking the Asian range
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and the FOMC later Wednesday could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Sideways after full reversal of NY spike · RSI 52 · price 1.40145
Tight Asian range 1.4010–1.4023 below 38.2% retrace.
Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 prior high on the pre-Fed USD bid fully unwound to the 1.4006 NY low by the close. Asia has since held a tight range between the 1.4010 Asian low, tested twice, and the 1.4023 Asian high, capped just under the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR is under 4 pips, with no setup in play into London open.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 Asian high clears the 38.2% retrace and puts the 1.4055 prior high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4010 Asian low exposes the 1.4006 NY low and the 1.4000 psych level
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could break the Asian range during NY hours
BoC and Fed decisions Wednesday could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Sideways after NY spike reversal · RSI 50 · price 1.40137
Tight range 1.4010–1.4024 below the reversal's 38.2% retrace.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 1.4055 ny high on the pre-Fed USD bid fully unwound to 1.4006. The Asia session is now boxed between the 1.4010 asian low and the 1.4023 asian high, which sits on the 38.2% retrace and was rejected again at 02:00 UTC. RSI(14) is flat near 50, so there is no momentum in play.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40235, 1.40546
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4010 asian low exposes the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the 1.4024 asian high / 38.2% retrace reopens the 1.4055 ny high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today could break the range; BoC and the Fed on Wednesday could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Sideways after NY reversal, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.40134
Asian range 1.4010–1.4023, lower highs under the 1.4055 NY high.
The early-NY rally to the 1.4055 NY high, driven by pre-Fed USD short-covering and softer oil, fully reversed to a 1.4006 NY low by 17:30 UTC. Asia's rebound met rejection at the 1.4023 Asian high, near the 38.2% level of the NY drop fib. Price sits mid-range at 1.4013 with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 Asian low exposes the 1.4006 NY low and the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the 1.4023 Asian high, also the 38.2% NY drop fib level, breaks the range and reopens the path toward the 1.4055 NY high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed decisions on Wednesday could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Range after failed NY rally · RSI 47 · price 1.40134
Asian range 1.4010–1.4023 inside the post-NY reversal; lower half.
Monday's NY-open rally to the 1.4055 day high fully reversed to the 1.4006 NY low as crude eased and USD squaring faded. Since then the pair has held a tight Asian range, with the 1.4023 Asian high rejected four times near the 38.2% retracement. Price sits at 1.4013 in the lower half of that range, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40232, 1.40546
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 Asian low exposes the 1.4006 NY low and the 1.4000 round number
Acceptance above the 1.4023 Asian high / 38.2% cap breaks the range toward the 1.4055 day high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and WTI headlines on Iran could break the Asian range
BoC and Fed decisions Wednesday are the larger event risk for this structure
01:47 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery in Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.40211
Asian range 1.4010–1.4023, higher low at 1.4016, price testing range top.
Asia session is pressing the Asian high at 1.4023. That level also capped the late-NY bounce and sits on the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib off the 1.4055 NY high. Monday's USD short-covering into FOMC drove the push to the NY high, which faded to the 1.4006 NY low, and the Asian low at 1.4010 has held three times since.
Support: 1.40157, 1.4010, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 Asian high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the path toward the 1.4055 NY high
Loss of the 1.4016 higher low returns price to the 1.4010 Asian low; a break of the 1.4006 NY low ends the range read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today, then BoC and FOMC Wednesday, could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Sideways after a fully reversed NY spike · RSI 47 · price 1.40162
Tight Asian range 1.4010–1.4023 inside the 1.4006–1.4055 swing.
Monday's USD short-covering pushed the pair to a 1.4055 NY high, then the move unwound fully into the 1.4006 NY low late in the session. The Asia session is now holding a 1.4010–1.4023 range. The range top has rejected price three times, close to the 38.2% retracement of that drop, and RSI(14) is flat near 47.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 range top and the 1.4026 london high reopens the 1.4055 ny high
Break of the 1.4010 asian low exposes the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.40 pivot
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the Asian range
Wednesday's BoC and FOMC decisions are the larger risk to this structure
01:17 UTC
Sideways after a failed NY spike, Asia grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 1.40225
1.4010–1.4024 range since late NY; higher lows at 1.4006 and 1.4010.
The NY session push to the 1.4055 ny high fully unwound to the 1.4006 ny low, leaving a 1.4010–1.4024 range into the Asia session. Asia is now pressing the range top at 1.4024, near the 38.2% of the NY drop, with the london high at 1.4026 just above and RSI(14) at 63. The USD rebound and softer crude underpin the bid.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4024 range top and 1.4026 london high opens the path back toward the 1.4055 ny high
Loss of the 1.4010 asian low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.4006 ny low and 1.4000 round number in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then BoC and FOMC on Wednesday, could reset the range read
01:03 UTC
Sideways after a failed NY spike · RSI 51 · price 1.40172
Tight range 1.4006–1.4023 after full retrace of 1.4055 high.
The NY session push to the 1.4055 ny high on USD short-covering met rejection and fully unwound to the 1.4006 ny low by late NY. Early Asia session is holding a 1.4010–1.4020 range between the asian low and asian high. Price is pressing the top of that range at 1.4017 with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4006, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4026, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.4020 brings the london high at 1.4026 and the 38.2% NY sell-off fib into view
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.4010 exposes the ny low at 1.4006 and the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4055 ny high would cancel the rejection read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then BoC and FOMC on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.4010–1.4020 under a fully retraced NY spike, lower highs since 20:15 UTC.
Monday's NY spike to the 1.4055 NY high met rejection and fully unwound into the 1.4006 NY low as the USD short-covering bid faded. Early Asia session is coiling in a 10-pip band between the 1.4010 Asian low and the 1.4020 Asian high, just under EMA20. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR has compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40236, 1.40549
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4010 Asian low exposes the 1.4006 NY low and the 1.4000 round number
A close above the 1.4020 Asian high and the 1.4024 late NY high breaks the lower-highs line
A 38.2% retracement of the NY reversal near 1.4024 lines up with the late NY high
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could break the Asian range
Wednesday's BoC and FOMC decisions are the larger event risk for this structure
00:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.40129
Tight Asian range nested inside the 1.4006–1.4024 post-NY range.
Early Asia session, price coiling at 1.4013 inside a 10-pip Asian range of 1.4010–1.4020. The pair spiked to a 1.4055 day high in the first hour of NY, then fully reversed to a 1.4006 NY low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.4024 range top, near the 38.2% fib of that NY drop, with CAD pausing into Wednesday's BoC after the USD short-covering bid.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4024, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 asian low exposes the 1.4006 ny low, then Monday's 1.3998 prior low
Close above the 1.4020 asian high and the 1.4024 range top / 38.2% fib reopens the 1.4055 day high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then Wednesday's BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC, could break the range read
00:17 UTC
Flat after NY spike reversal · RSI 47 · price 1.40118
Tight consolidation under 1.4023 lower high.
The pre-FOMC/BoC USD rebound spiked to the 1.4055 NY high, then fully unwound to the 1.4006 NY low. The bounce stalled near the 38.2% fib at a 1.4023 lower high, and early Asia is compressing just above the 1.4010 overnight low with ATR(14) down to ~3 pips.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4010 overnight low exposes the 1.4006 NY low and the 1.3998 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.4023 lower high reopens the 1.4055 NY high
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, and the BoC and Fed decisions Wednesday, could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Range after failed NY rally · RSI 49 · price 1.40137
NY spike to 1.4055 fully retraced; tight 1.4010–1.4024 coil into Asia.
The NY session rally on pre-FOMC USD short-covering broke above London's 1.4026 high to a 1.4055 session high. It fully unwound to a 1.4006 NY low by 17:30 UTC as yields eased after the 2y auction, leaving a false break. The late bounce saw rejection at the 1.4024 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib, and price is coiling above the 1.4010 late lows with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4024 bounce high and 38.2% fib reopens the 1.4055 session high
Failure to hold 1.4010 late lows and the 1.4006 ny low exposes Monday's 1.3998 asia low and the 1.40 handle
Lower highs at 1.4024 and 1.4020 cap the coil; a break of that line ends the range read
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC and Fed on Wed, could materially shift this read