Failed NY breakout, rebound capped below 38.2% fib.
Monday's NY session push through the 1.4026 London high on broad USD short-covering ran to a 1.4055 NY high, then fully unwound to the 1.4006 NY low. The rebound stalled at 1.4024, just under the 38.2% fib. Early Asia is drifting near 1.4012, above a late floor at 1.4010 and back inside the prior Asian range, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4026, 1.40546
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 late floor exposes the 1.4006 NY low and the 1.3998 Asian low
Close above the 38.2% fib at 1.4024 and the London high at 1.4026 reopens the path toward the 1.4055 NY high
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst; BoC and FOMC on Wednesday could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Range after failed NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 1.40119
NY spike above London high fully reversed; lower highs inside 1.4006–1.4024.
NY pushed through the 1.4026 london high to a 1.4055 session high on the pre-FOMC USD bid, then fully reversed to the 1.4006 ny low. That makes it a false break, with crude and BoC positioning keeping the pair pinned near the 1.40 handle. The late-ny high at 1.4024 stalled near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib, and early Asia is compressing under lower highs, RSI(14) ~42.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4006 ny low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 round number
Close above the 1.4024 late-ny high and lower highs line reopens the 1.4026 london high
Tue US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC as pre-FOMC/BoC tone-setters
BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wed could materially shift this range read
23:03 UTC
Rangebound after failed NY breakout · RSI 43 · price 1.40137
Lower high at 1.40236 below 1.40549 NY high; base at 1.4010.
NY session broke the 1.4026 London high on pre-FOMC USD short-covering and ran to a 1.4055 NY high, then gave back the whole move to a 1.40055 NY low by 17:30 UTC. The rebound was rejected at 1.4024, the 38.2 fib of the NY selloff. Price sits near 1.4014 into the Asia open, below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~43.
Support: 1.40101, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 rollover low exposes the 1.40055 NY low, then the 1.3998 Asia low at the 1.40 handle
Close back above the 38.2 fib at 1.4024 reopens the 1.4026 London high
Crude / Iran headlines during Asia hours are the main CAD driver until Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC)
Wed BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Intraday range after failed NY spike · RSI 45 · price 1.40143
NY false break above London high fully reversed; tight 1.4010–1.4024 range after NY close.
Pre-FOMC USD short-covering lifted the pair through the London high into the NY open, peaking at 1.4055 (ny high), but the move was fully unwound to a 1.4006 ny low. The bounce after NY close stalled at the 1.4024 evening high near the 38.2% fib, and price now sits at 1.4014 in thin rollover trade, below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.40101, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 late floor exposes the 1.4006 ny low, then the 1.3998 asian low at the 1.40 handle
M15 close above the 1.4024 evening high (38.2% fib) puts the 1.4026 london high back in play
Oil and Iran headlines during the Asia session are the main CAD swing factor in thin liquidity
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, then Wed BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Flat after failed NY upside spike · RSI 49 · price 1.40183
Post-NY compression 1.4010–1.4024, lower highs off the 1.4055 day high.
Pre-FOMC USD short-covering and softer oil drove a NY-morning break of the London range to a 1.4055 day high, but the move met rejection and fully retraced to a 1.4006 ny low. Post-NY trade is compressing between the 1.4010 rollover low and the 1.4024 range high, sitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of the asian low to day high leg, under the lower highs trendline.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4024 range high and lower highs trendline reopens the 1.4055 day high
Failure to hold the 1.4010 rollover low and 1.4006 ny low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 handle
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods is the next scheduled catalyst; BoC and FOMC decisions Wed could materially shift this read
22:18 UTC
Sideways after failed NY breakout · RSI 46 · price 1.40186
Tight post-NY range 1.4010–1.4024, below 38.2% fib.
The rebound off the 1.3998 asian low, driven by USD short-covering and softer oil, extended through the London high in NY to 1.4055, then fully reversed to a 1.4006 ny low. The late-NY bounce stalled twice at 1.4024, the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff. Early Asia is holding the 1.4010 rollover low with price on EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40244, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4024 38.2% fib reopens the 1.4055 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.4010 rollover low exposes the 1.4006 ny low and 1.3998 asian low
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wednesday's BoC/Fed decisions could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Range after failed NY spike, momentum neutral · RSI 47 · price 1.4016
Lower high at 1.4024 against higher low at 1.4010, compressing above the 1.40 handle.
The NY-session push to the 1.4055 session high on pre-Fed USD short-covering was fully rejected, with price falling to a 1.40055 NY low. Since then price has compressed between a 1.4024 lower high and the 1.4010 post-NY low, which sits on the 78.6% fib of the Asian low-to-NY high move. Early Asia trades just under EMA20 at 1.4016 on thin post-rollover ranges.
Support: 1.4010, 1.40055, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4024, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4005 (NY low) exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.40 handle
M15 close above the 1.4024 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the session high
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) is the next scheduled catalyst; BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) on Wed can reset the range
21:47 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs after NY spike reversed · RSI 45 · price 1.40116
NY spike to 1.4055 fully retraced; late-NY bounce capped at 1.4023, price back inside the Asian range.
The early-NY USD short-covering bid pushed USDCAD to a 1.4055 session high, but the move fully reversed to a 1.40055 NY low. The late-NY bounce stalled twice at the 1.4023 late ny cap, near the 38.2% fib, before slipping back to 1.4012 in thin rollover/early-Asia trade. RSI(14) is around 45 and ATR is under 4 pips.
Support: 1.40055, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4055
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.40055 ny low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 handle
An M15 close above the 1.4023 late ny cap breaks the lower-high trendline and the double top read
Session high at 1.4055 is the upper bound of the day's range
Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Wed BoC/Fed decisions could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY spike reversal, flat into the open · RSI 45 · price 1.40129
Lower highs below 1.4055; 1.4006–1.4024 range.
Pre-BoC repositioning and USD short-covering lifted the pair above the London high to a 1.4055 NY high. The move fully reversed to a 1.40055 NY low, and the recovery stalled at a 1.4023 double cap near the 38.2% retrace. Price is now drifting at 1.4013, just above the late low, as the new Asia session opens with thin bars.
Support: 1.4011, 1.40055, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 double cap breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens 1.4055
Failure to hold the 1.4011 late low and the 1.40055 NY low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 handle
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, with BoC and Fed both Wed, keeps intraday swings two-way and headline-driven
Lower highs from the 1.4055 day high, holding above the 1.4006 NY low.
The NY-session break above the London high stalled at the 1.4055 day high and fully unwound into the 1.4006 NY low, as the pair's rebound from Friday's six-week low faded with oil and pre-BoC/Fed positioning. A lower high formed at the 1.4024 swing high and price is pinned just above the 1.40 handle into the thin post-NY close, RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4006 NY low exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and Friday's 1.3969 low
Recovery above the 1.4024 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4055 day high back in play
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods, then Wed BoC and Fed decisions, could materially shift this read
NY breakout to 1.4055 rejected; lower high at 1.4023 above the 1.4006 NY low.
A firmer USD and softer oil lifted the pair from the 1.3998 Asian low. The NY open then broke the London range and ran to a 1.4055 session high, but the move was rejected and fully unwound to a 1.4006 NY low. The late-NY rebound stalled at a 1.4023 lower high, and price has slipped back to 1.4013 near the 78.6% of the day swing fib, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.40055, 1.4000, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4006 NY low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.40 psych handle and the 1.3998 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.4023 lower high and the 1.4026 London high (near the 50% fib) undercuts the rejection read; the 1.4055 session high is the next reference above
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence could set the pre-Fed tone
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the main event risk for this structure
Higher lows off 1.40055 after full reversal of NY spike.
Early NY lifted USDCAD to the 1.40549 ny high as crude slipped and the dollar firmed, snapping the seven-day slide. The move was fully reversed to the 1.40055 ny low by 17:30 UTC. Since then price has printed higher lows near 1.4021 after NY close, stalling under the late high at 1.40236 and the 50% fib of the NY drop at 1.40302.
Support: 1.40162, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40236, 1.40302, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Close above the 50% fib at 1.40302 opens the 61.8% at 1.40360 and the ny high at 1.40549
Break of the 1.40162 higher low voids the rising trendline and exposes the ny low at 1.40055
Loss of 1.40055 puts the asian low at 1.39981 and the 1.40 handle back in play
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, then Wed BoC and FOMC, could materially shift this read
NY spike rejected; small higher lows inside the Asian range.
The NY open rally to the 1.4055 NY high, helped by a firmer USD and softer oil, was fully rejected. Price fell back to the 1.4006 reversal low by 17:30 UTC. Late NY has printed a higher low at 1.4016 and is compressing under the 1.4023 late-ny high, flat against EMA20/50 and between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the NY decline fib, still inside the 1.3998–1.4026 Asian/London range.
Support: 1.40162, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4026 london high clears the 38.2% fib and reopens the 1.4055 ny high
Break of the 1.4016 higher low and the late-NY trendline returns focus to the 1.4006 reversal low and 1.3998 asian low
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC could shift the read into the NY open; BoC and FOMC on Wednesday are the larger event risk
20:03 UTC
Choppy, mean-reverting after failed NY spike · RSI 46 · price 1.40193
NY false break above London high fully reversed; late-NY higher low capped at 1.4023.
The NY-open spike through the London high at 1.4026 ran to the NY high at 1.4055, then fully reversed. The drop stalled at the NY low at 1.4006, above the Asian low at 1.3998, as USD/CAD rebounded from Friday's lows on a firmer dollar and softer crude. The late-NY bounce has printed a higher low at 1.4016 but is capped at the 1.4023 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, with price pinned at EMA20/50 and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.40162, 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4026 london high reopens the 50% fib near 1.4030 and the 1.4055 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.4016 higher low puts the 1.4006 ny low and 1.3998 asian low back in play
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods, then Wed BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read; thin Asia hours ahead
19:47 UTC
Flat after failed NY spike · RSI 50 · price 1.40206
Late NY, consolidating mid-session range above 1.4006 low.
Softer crude and a firmer USD drove an early-NY spike from 1.4018 to a 1.4055 NY high. That move was fully rejected back to a 1.4006 NY low, holding above the 1.3998 Asian low. Late in the NY session price is consolidating near 1.4020 on a rising line off that low, capped at the 1.4023 bounce high, with flat converged EMAs and RSI(14) neutral at ~50.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4006, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4023, 1.4036, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4023 bounce high and the 1.4036 61.8% fib of the NY selloff reopens the 1.4055 NY high
Break of the rising line near 1.4016 exposes the 1.4006 NY low, then the 1.3998 Asian low
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods is the next catalyst; Wed BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
False break of London high, late-NY bounce inside 1.4006–1.4055.
The NY open rally on the firmer USD tone reached a 1.4055 session high, then was rejected and fully retraced through the London-NY transition to a 1.4006 NY low, just above the 1.3998 Asian low. The late-NY bounce is stalling near 1.4023, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff. Price is sitting below both EMAs and RSI(14) is neutral at 47.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40244, 1.40549
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4024 38.2% fib reopens the path toward the 1.4055 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4006 NY low exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.40 handle
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, then Wed BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Recovering after NY spike reversal · RSI 46 · price 1.40225
False break above London high, higher lows off NY low.
The Sunday gap to 1.4038 was faded through Asia to a 1.3998 asia low before USD firmness and softer oil lifted the pair. NY then broke the 1.4026 london high to a 1.4055 session high and fully reversed to a 1.4006 ny low. Late NY, a higher-lows chain has retraced about a third of that drop to 1.4022, sitting on converged EMAs just under the london high and the 38.2% fib at 1.4024.
Support: 1.4017, 1.40055, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4030, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4026 london high brings the 1.4030 fib 50% and the 1.4055 session high back into view
Slip below the 1.4017 asia high breaks the higher-lows line and stalls the recovery
Failure to hold the 1.4006 ny low exposes the 1.3998 asia low and the 1.40 handle
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Monday range 1.3998–1.4055, rebounding off NY low.
Monday's gap-up open near 1.4040 filled during Asia, and the 13:00 UTC break to a 1.4055 session high on firmer USD and softer oil was rejected and fully retraced into a 1.4006 NY low after London close. Late-NY rebound is pressing the flat EMA20 just under the 1.4026 London high, near the 38.2% of the selloff, with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4040, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4026 london high and 38.2% fib opens the 1.4040 monday open gap level
Loss of the 1.4006 ny low and the 1.3998 asian low puts price back below the 1.40 handle
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods is the next scheduled catalyst ahead of Wednesday's BoC and FOMC decisions
False break above London high fully retraced; recovering from NY low into EMA cluster.
Firmer USD and softer crude carried the pair through the London high at 1.4026 to a session high of 1.4055 in early NY hours. That move fully reversed into a 1.4006 NY low, leaving a false break. Late in NY hours, price is pressing the 1.4021 EMA20/50 cluster with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.40384, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london high at 1.4026 (38.2% of the ny reversal fib) reopens the 1.4038 weekly open gap level
Failure to hold the 1.4006 ny low exposes the asian low at 1.3998 and the 1.40 handle
Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence from 12:15 UTC, then Wed BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.4055 NY high; back inside London range 1.4008–1.4026.
A stronger USD and softer crude after Trump ruled out Iran strikes drove a NY-open break of the 1.4026 london high to 1.4055. That move fully reversed to a 1.4006 ny low by 17:00 UTC, a false break that puts price back inside the London range. Late NY is holding a small bounce to 1.4017, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.40358, 1.40546
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4026 london high reopens the fib 61.8 retracement of the NY drop at 1.4036
Failure to hold the 1.4006 ny low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 handle
No calendar risk in the next 8h; oil and Iran headlines remain the main CAD swing factor into Asia
BoC and FOMC on Wed sit behind pre-event positioning and could reset this range
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY high · RSI 33 · price 1.40131
Lower highs off 1.4055, back inside London range.
Monday opened with a gap up that filled during Asia. In the first hour of NY, price broke the London high at 1.4026 and ran to a 1.4055 session high as USD firmed and oil eased. That leg was fully rejected: a lower high at 1.4022 led to a 1.4006 NY low after London close, leaving price near 1.4013 with RSI(14) around 33 and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4022, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4022 lower high and the 38.2% fib reopens the London high at 1.4026.
Failure to hold the 1.4006 NY low exposes the asian low at 1.3998 and the 1.40 handle.
The descending trendline from the 1.4055 session high caps the lower-high chain while it holds.
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled risk; BoC and FOMC on Wed could materially shift this read.
18:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed NY breakout · RSI 39 · price 1.40123
Lower highs from 1.4055, back inside pre-break range.
Monday's rebound on a firmer USD and softer crude cleared the London high at 1.4026 in the first hour of NY and ran to a 1.4055 session high. The move then failed, and a steady sell-off after London close erased it, leaving price back below the 1.4019 range top and just above the 1.4006 NY low, with RSI(14) near 39. The 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.40 handle sit beneath.
Support: 1.40055, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40193, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4019 range top, then 1.4026 london high, would neutralise the sell-off and reopen the 38.2–50% fib zone at 1.4024–1.4030
Failure to hold the 1.4006 NY low exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.40 handle
Lower-high sequence from the 1.4055 session high stays intact while price holds below 1.4026
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods, then BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) Wednesday, could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY spike reversal · RSI 38 · price 1.40117
Lower highs since NY high, back inside London range.
The early-NY rally to the 1.4055 ny high, on a firmer USD into Fed/BoC week, fully unwound after London close. Price now sits near 1.4012, under the 1.4022 bounce high and a descending trendline of lower highs. The 1.4006 session low and the 1.4000 round number sit just below. RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4022, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4022 bounce high breaks the descending trendline; above that, 1.4026 london high is next
A break of the 1.4006 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3998 Asian low
A fresh push toward the 1.4055 ny high would cancel the rejection read
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods is the next scheduled catalyst; BoC and FOMC on Wed can reset this structure
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed NY breakout · RSI 29 · price 1.40094
Lower highs from 1.4055 session high, back at London range low.
The NY breakout above the 1.4026 London high on firmer USD and softer oil ran to a 1.4055 session high, then fully retraced in a chain of lower highs. Price is back at the 1.4008 London low with RSI(14) near 29, and the asian low at 1.3998 sits just below the 1.40 handle.
Support: 1.40083, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.4022, 1.4026, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4008 london low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 handle
Reclaim of the 1.4022 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4026 london high back in play
RSI(14) sub-30 into support; a reaction at the 1.4008–1.3998 zone would show the selloff stalling
BoC and FOMC decisions on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4055; back at the pre-breakout base.
NY cleared the 1.4026 europe high at 13:00 UTC and ran to the 1.4055 ny high on a firmer USD and softer crude. That move has since unwound in a lower-highs sequence and is now past the 78.6% fib of the rally. Price sits just above the 1.4008 london low late in NY hours, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 1.4008, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4022, 1.4026, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4008 london low exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.40 handle
Close back above the 1.4022 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4026 europe high back in play
Reclaiming the 1.4055 ny high would negate the false break read
Tue durable goods (12:30 UTC) and pre-BoC/FOMC positioning could reset the intraday range
Failed NY breakout, lower highs back into London range.
After filling the weekend gap, USDCAD held a 1.3998–1.4026 Asia/London range, then broke higher early in the NY session to a 1.4055 ny high on USD short-covering and softer oil. The move met rejection and fully retraced through the fib 61.8%, leaving a false break with a lower-high chain capping. Price sits just below the london high with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4008, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4039, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4026 london high puts price back inside the prior range top and tests the 1.4039 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.4016 ny low exposes the 1.4008 london low and the 1.3998 asian low
Break of the lower-high trendline from 1.4055 voids the false break read
Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
False break above London range, back inside 1.4008–1.4026.
Monday's gap above Friday's close filled during the Asia session. London then ranged between the 1.4008 london low and the 1.4026 london high before a NY-open break ran to the 1.4055 ny high on a firmer USD and softer oil. That move has fully unwound after London close. Price is back inside the London range near the 78.6% fib, with the 1.4016 pullback low just below and RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 1.40162, 1.40083, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4039, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4026 london high reopens the 1.4039 flip level
Failure to hold the 1.4016 pullback low exposes the 1.4008 london low and the 1.4000 round number
A reclaim of the 1.4055 ny high would negate the false break read
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC and Fed decisions Wed, could materially shift this read
False break above the Asian high, price back at the London top.
Around the NY open USDCAD cleared the Asian high at 1.4042 and printed a 1.4055 session high as the USD firmed and oil eased. The leg was rejected and has retraced about 76% back to the London top near 1.4018. RSI(14) sits at 41 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4018, 1.4008, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042, 1.4055
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the London top at 1.4018 exposes the London low at 1.4008, then the Asian low at 1.3998
Recovery above the London high at 1.4026, also the 61.8% fib, would soften the false-break read, with the Asian high at 1.4042 overhead
Retake of the 1.4055 session high would cancel the rejection
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and Fed 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
NY rally fading, deep pullback underway · RSI 45 · price 1.40241
Lower highs since 1.4055 NY high, retesting London range top.
CAD softened as crude fell after Trump ruled out immediate strikes on Iran, and USD/CAD broke out of the 1.4008–1.4026 London range at 13:00 UTC to a 1.4055 NY high. NY hours have since printed a lower high at 1.4039 and retraced past the 61.8% of the rally. Price is now sitting on EMA50 and retesting the London high, with a 1.4021 pullback low just beneath.
Support: 1.4021, 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4039, 1.4055
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4021 pullback low puts price back inside the London range and exposes the 1.4008 London low
Asian low at 1.3998 sits on the 1.4000 psych pivot; a break there would erase Monday's move
A close above the 1.4039 lower high breaks the NY pullback line and reopens the 1.4055 NY high
Crude/Iran headlines are driving CAD intraday; BoC and Fed decisions Wed are the larger event risk
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back after NY spike · RSI 56 · price 1.40285
NY breakout above London range, now retesting the break level.
The NY open broke the 1.4008–1.4026 London range and cleared the 1.4042 Asian high to print a 1.4055 session high, with softer crude after Trump ruled out Iran strikes weighing on CAD. Price has since retraced to the 61.8% fib near the 1.4026 London high. RSI(14) has cooled to 56 and price is slipping just under EMA20.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4055
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4026 London high puts price back inside the London range, with the 1.4008 London low and the 1.4000 round number next
A reclaim of the 1.4042 Asian high reopens the 1.4055 session high
Oil and Iran headlines are the near-term CAD driver; next scheduled risk is US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, ahead of the BoC and Fed on Wednesday
15:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 57 · price 1.40363
NY breakout above London range, now a pullback holding the 38.2% retrace.
Monday's gap open at 1.4042 faded to 1.3998 in Asia, and London capped at the 1.4026 london high. The NY open broke that cap and ran to a 1.4055 session high on firmer USD and softer crude. Price is now back at the 1.4034 pullback low near the 38.2% retrace of the NY leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~57.
Support: 1.40343, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.40549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4026 london high (61.8% of the NY leg) would mark the breakout as a false break
Reclaiming the 1.4042 gap open, then 1.4055 session high, resumes the higher-high chain
London close could thin the tape into late NY hours
BoC and Fed decisions Wednesday could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from NY high · RSI 61 · price 1.40363
London range broken higher in NY, now retracing toward breakout zone.
Monday's weekend gap up to the 1.4042 gap high filled in Asia. London then held a 1.4008–1.4026 range until the first hour of NY broke it, peaking at the 1.4055 session high as USD firmed broadly into the Fed. Price has since slipped back under the gap high to the 38.2% level of the NY breakout fib near 1.4036, with RSI(14) cooling to ~61.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4055
What it said to watch
Holding above the london high at 1.4026 keeps the NY breakout intact; a close back below it returns price to the prior range
A reclaim of the 1.4042 gap high puts the 1.4055 session high back in play
A break of the 1.4008 range low exposes the 1.4000 round number, the pivot CAD has chopped around ahead of Wednesday's BoC
Oil and Iran headlines remain a swing factor for CAD intraday
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 63 · price 1.40399
NY breakout above London range, first pullback in progress.
After the Sunday gap-up faded through Asia, the first hour of NY broke the 1.4008–1.4026 London range and ran to a 1.4055 session high. Softer oil and a firmer USD into the Fed are behind the move. Price has since eased to a 1.4039 pullback low near the 38.2% retrace, just under the 1.4042 gap high, with RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4026, 1.4008
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4055
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london high at 1.4026 would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4042 gap high keeps the 1.4055 session high in play
Loss of the london low at 1.4008 would erase the session's gains
BoC and Fed decisions on Wednesday are the main event risk; Tuesday's US durable goods is the nearer catalyst
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback holding · RSI 68 · price 1.40467
NY breakout above London range; HH at 1.4055, HL at 1.4041.
NY session broke the 1.4008 london low to 1.4026 london high range from 13:00 UTC and printed a 1.4055 session high, in line with the broader USD bid and softer crude. The first pullback found a retest low at 1.4041, near Sunday's opening gap high, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought to ~68.
Support: 1.40408, 1.4026, 1.40083
Resistance: 1.40549, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4041 retest low turns the pullback into a deeper fib test toward the 38.2% near 1.4037
Return below the 1.4026 london high would mark the breakout as a false break back into the London range
Clearance of the 1.4055 session high opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; BoC and Fed on Wednesday remain the larger event risk
NY range break above London high; shallow pullback.
NY open broke the London range (london low 1.4008, london high 1.4026) and ran to a session high at 1.4055. The move came as USD firmed broadly and crude slipped on the Iran headlines. Price is holding a pullback low near 1.4044 with RSI(14) easing from the high-70s, and the london high sits on the 61.8% retracement of the breakout leg.
Support: 1.40437, 1.40261, 1.40083
Resistance: 1.40549, 1.4070
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4044 pullback low opens a deeper retest of the 1.4026 london high / 61.8% zone
Acceptance back inside the London range below 1.4026 would mark the breakout as a false break
A close above the 1.4055 session high puts the 1.4070 prior pivot in view
Crude headlines and Tue 12:30 UTC durable goods are the next event risk ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions
NY breakout above London high, first pullback from 1.4055.
The weekend gap filled early in Asia, holding the 1.3998 asian low. Early NY then broke the 1.4026 london high and reclaimed the 1.4038 weekly open, running to a 1.4055 session high as USD short-covering into the Fed met softer crude weighing on CAD. Price is easing off the high mid-NY, with RSI(14) cooling to about 67.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4026, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.4038 weekly open keeps the NY breakout intact; a return below the 1.4026 london high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the NY leg, would turn it into a false break
A close above the 1.4055 session high opens the 1.4100 round number
A slide back to the 1.3998 asian low would erase the NY move
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and the Fed Wed, could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, impulsive NY leg · RSI 77 · price 1.40526
London range broken higher in NY; consecutive higher highs, no pullback yet.
In the first hours of NY, price broke out of the 1.4008 range low to 1.4026 London high band that held through London. The NY impulse ran about 45 pips through the Sunday gap open at 1.4042 to a 1.4055 session high. USD shorts are being trimmed into FOMC while softer crude weighs on CAD, and RSI(14) sits near 77 after six straight up bars.
Support: 1.4042, 1.4026, 1.4008
Resistance: 1.40546, 1.4070
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4042 gap open would mark rejection of the breakout
Failure to hold the 1.4026 London high returns price to the prior range, with 1.4008 range low below
Extension through the 1.4055 session high puts the 1.4070 prior pivot in play
38.2–50% retrace of the NY impulse sits at 1.4037–1.4031
Tue Durable Goods, then Wed BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive NY breakout · RSI 76 · price 1.40462
Broke above London range, through weekly open, fresh session high.
The NY open breakout lifted price out of the 1.4008–1.4026 London range and through the 1.4038 weekly open, where Sunday's gap-up start sat. It tagged a 1.4049 session high as softer crude, after Trump ruled out immediate action on Iran, weighed on CAD. RSI(14) near 76 is stretched but not extreme, with four strong bars into the high.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4026, 1.4008
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Clearance of the 1.4049 session high and the 1.4050 round number extends the NY breakout leg
M15 close back below the 1.4038 weekly open turns the move into a possible false break
Loss of the 1.4026 london high, near the 38.2–50% fib of the NY breakout leg, reopens the London range
Break of the 1.4008 london low ends the intraday higher-low sequence
BoC and FOMC decisions on Wednesday are the larger event risk for this pair
Higher lows off Asian low, London range broken higher in NY.
The first hour of the NY session broke the London high at 1.4026 and lifted USD/CAD to a 1.4038 session high. That puts price just under the 1.4042 weekly open, with softer crude and pre-Fed trimming of USD shorts weighing on CAD. RSI(14) sits near 70, and the higher lows on the leg from the 1.3998 Asian low remain intact.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4008, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4038 session high or the 1.4042 weekly open caps the leg at the Monday open spike
An M15 close back below the 1.4026 London high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4008 London low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.3998 Asian low back in play
A pullback holding the 50% retrace of the leg near 1.4018 keeps the higher-low sequence intact
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) is next, ahead of BoC and FOMC on Wed; event risk is building into midweek
Higher lows from the Asian low; London range top 1.4026 broken at NY open.
The first hour of NY broke the London high at 1.4026, and the NY leg off 1.4008 printed a session high at 1.4036 as softer crude weighed on CAD. Higher lows have held since the Asian low near 1.3998. RSI(14) near 65 is firm but not stretched, and Monday's opening gap high at 1.4042 sits just overhead.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4036, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london high at 1.4026 would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 1.4042 gap high reclaims all of Monday's opening gap
Break of the london low at 1.4008 ends the higher lows sequence and exposes 1.4000 psych
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Asian low, London range broken to upside in NY.
The first NY-hour push cleared the London high at 1.4026 and printed a 1.4030 session high, as softer crude weighed on CAD after Trump ruled out immediate Iran action. Price is on a higher-low chain off the 1.3998 Asian low, and the London low near 1.4008 held twice; RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 1.4026, 1.40083, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40298, 1.4042
What it said to watch
A move back below the 1.4026 london high turns the break into a false break inside the London range
Clearance of the 1.4030 session high exposes the Sunday-open gap high at 1.4042
Failure at the 1.4008 london low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 1.3998 asian low back in play
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Intraday range after London spike, pressing range top · RSI 57 · price 1.40189
1.4008–1.4019 range since London faded the 1.4026 high.
The weekend gap high at 1.4042 was filled back to Friday's 1.4009 close. Asia probed 1.3998, then London ran the Asian range to a 1.4026 London high before fading on softer crude. Since then a 1.4008–1.4019 range has held through the London-NY transition, with the range low sitting on the 61.8% fib and price now pressing the range top.
Support: 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4019 range top reopens the 1.4026 london high
Failure to hold the 1.4008 range low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Oil/Iran headlines are the main near-term CAD driver; BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed on Wednesday could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday range after London push higher · RSI 56 · price 1.4017
Tight 1.4008–1.4020 range since 09:00 UTC, holding above Asian low.
Sunday's gap up to the 1.4042 gap high faded to a 1.3998 Asian low, just under the 1.4000 round number. The London leg then lifted price to the 1.4026 london high as softer crude weighed on CAD after Trump ruled out immediate Iran action. A pullback held near the 61.8% retracement of that leg, and price has since compressed between the 1.4008 range low and 1.4020 range top into the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4020 range top reopens the 1.4026 london high and the 1.4042 gap high
Failure to hold the 1.4008 range low exposes the 1.4000 round number and the Asian low
Wednesday's BoC decision (13:45 UTC) and the FOMC that evening are the main event risk; positioning ahead of them may keep intraday ranges compressed
Tight intraday range 1.4008–1.4019 below the London high, above the Asian low.
The Sunday gap high at 1.4042 faded as crude-driven CAD weakness unwound, and Asia probed the 1.4000 round number with a low at 1.3998. London open lifted the pair to a 1.4026 London high. Since then it has compressed into a 1.4008–1.4019 range, the 50–61.8% retracement of the Asia-low-to-London-high leg, with the range top capping three times into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.4008, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4008 range low (61.8% of the leg) exposes the 1.4000 round number and the Asian low
Close above the 1.4019 range top reopens the 1.4026 London high, then the gap high at 1.4042
NY open flow can resolve the compression. BoC and Fed on Wednesday are the larger event risk for this pair.
12:16 UTC
Neutral, sideways after London push · RSI 51 · price 1.4016
Tight range 1.4008–1.4019 below London high, pre-NY.
The weekend gap up to 1.4042 was filled in Asia, with the Asian low at 1.3998. London lifted the pair to 1.4026 as crude eased on Iran headlines and pressured CAD, then faded into a 1.4008–1.4019 range; the pullback held the 61.8% fib near the range low. Price is mid-range at 1.4016 into the NY open, RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.4008, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the range top at 1.4019 brings the london high at 1.4026 and then the gap high at 1.4042 back into view
Failure to hold the range low at 1.4008 (61.8% fib) exposes the asian low and the 1.4000 pivot
Oil reaction to US-Iran headlines during NY hours could break the range; BoC and Fed decisions Wed loom over the week
12:02 UTC
Sideways after London push, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.40135
Tight 1.4008–1.4019 range below the 1.4026 London high.
The Monday gap open at 1.4041 filled early, and the 1.3998 Asian low held near 1.4000. London then lifted price to a 1.4026 session high as crude slipped on easing Iran tension. Since 07:30 UTC price has compressed into a 1.4008–1.4019 range, with the range low sitting on the 61.8% fib of the Asia-to-London leg. RSI(14) is flat near 46 and price is pinned at EMA20 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.4008, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4041
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4008 range low exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the 1.4019 range top reopens the 1.4026 London high, with the 1.4041 gap open beyond
NY open is the likely catalyst for resolving the range
Iran/oil headlines are the live CAD driver ahead of the BoC and Fed decisions on Wednesday
11:46 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since London open · RSI 41 · price 1.40103
London false break above Asian range, fading back toward session low.
The Sunday gap to 1.4042 filled back to Friday's close as oil eased on Iran headlines. Asia held 1.3998 above 1.4000, and London briefly broke the Asian range to 1.4026 before rejection. Lower highs at 1.4019 now have price pressing the 1.4010 London low late in the London morning, with RSI(14) near 41 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 london low exposes the asia low at 1.3998 and the 1.4000 pivot
Reclaim of the 1.4019 lower high breaks the descending sequence; 1.4026 london high caps above
NY open with US-Iran or oil headlines could reset the session range
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; BoC and FOMC on Wed are the larger risk
11:31 UTC
Intraday range after London spike, momentum neutral · RSI 45 · price 1.40133
Weekend gap filled in Asia, London high 1.4026, compressing 1.4010-1.4019.
USDCAD filled the weekend gap with a dip to the 1.4000 Asian low, then London lifted it to a 1.4026 session high before the pullback low at 1.4010 held near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg. Late London is compressing between 1.4010 and the 1.4019 lower-high line, RSI(14) neutral near 45, as softer oil on eased Iran tensions offsets a sidelined USD.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 pullback low exposes the 1.4000 Asian low and round number
Close above the 1.4019 lower-high line reopens the 1.4026 London high, then the 1.4042 gap open
NY open liquidity is the likely trigger for a range break; ATR near 4.5 pips shows a compressed tape
BoC and FOMC decisions on Wed 28 Oct could reset this range
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, pausing · RSI 53 · price 1.40178
Higher lows since Asia; London range 1.4010–1.4026 mid-session.
The Sunday gap to the 1.4042 gap high filled in Asia, which based at a 1.3998 Asian low. London then ran to a 1.4026 session high before the pullback held 1.4010, the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg and Friday's close. Price is coiling mid-London with RSI near 53, as softer oil on the Iran headlines limits CAD follow-through.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 61.8% fib breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3998 Asian low
Acceptance above the 1.4026 session high opens a run at the 1.4042 gap high
NY open and Tue Durable Goods ahead of Wed BoC/FOMC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Intraday higher lows, capped near asian high · RSI 50 · price 1.40178
Weekly-open gap filled, higher low at 1.4010, retesting the asian high.
The weekly open gapped up to 1.4042 (gap high). Price filled the gap and probed below 1.4000 in the Asia session before buyers stepped in at the 1.39981 Asian low, as softer crude on Trump's Iran remarks eroded CAD support. London spiked above the Asian high to the 1.40260 London high, then failed back inside. The 1.40096 London low held a higher low near the 61.8% retrace, and price is now retesting 1.40203.
Support: 1.40096, 1.4000, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40203, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40203 asian high reopens the 1.40260 london high, with the gap high at 1.4042 beyond
Break of the 1.40096 london low and the rising-lows line exposes the 1.4000 round number and the 1.39981 asian low
Oil swings on US-Iran headlines can move CAD inside this session range
BoC and Fed decisions on Wed could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Range, coiling after London spike · RSI 49 · price 1.40154
Higher lows from Asia vs lower highs since London high.
The Sunday gap high at 1.4042 filled back to 1.4010, and Asia then set a 1.3998 low. London broke the Asian range to a 1.4026 London high as crude slipped on easing Iran risk, then pulled back to the 61.8% fib at the 1.4010 London low. Price is now coiling mid-London between rising lows and a 1.4019 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4019 lower high and 1.4026 London high breaks the compression to the upside
Loss of the 1.4010 London low and 61.8% fib puts the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.4000 pivot back in play
Oil moves on US-Iran headlines are the near-term CAD driver; BoC and Fed decisions on Wed 28 Oct are the larger event risk
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, pausing · RSI 54 · price 1.40165
Asian range broken higher; London pullback holding 61.8% retrace.
The weekly open gapped up to 1.4042 and filled in Asia, dipping to 1.3998 near the 1.4000 round number. London broke the Asian range high as crude faded on Trump's Iran remarks, reaching 1.4026, and the pullback held 1.4010 at the 61.8% retrace. Price is now consolidating between the london low and london high, with RSI neutral.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 london low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.4000 round number next
Close above the 1.4026 london high reopens the 1.4042 weekly open gap high
US-Iran headlines moving WTI could shift CAD intraday ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions
Higher low at 1.4010 above the 1.3998 Asian low, capped at the 1.4026 London high.
Sunday's gap up to the 1.4042 gap high was fully filled in Asia as crude eased on Iran de-escalation. The 1.3998 Asian low held just under 1.4000. London ran to a 1.4026 London high, then pulled back to a 1.4010 London low near the 61.8% retracement of the Asia-London leg. Price is mid-range near 1.4015 with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4010 london low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.4000 handle and the 1.3998 asian low
M15 close above the 1.4026 london high reopens the 1.4042 gap high
Oil moves on US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver until BoC and Fed on Wed Oct 28
Higher lows from Asian low vs lower highs from session high.
Sunday's gap up to the 1.4042 gap high was fully filled in Asia as crude eased on Iran headlines. The Asian low at 1.3998 held the 1.4000 handle. Early Europe cleared the 1.4020 Asian high to a 1.4026 session high and met rejection, and mid-London price is coiling near 1.4015 between a rising trendline of higher lows and a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4026 session high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.4042 gap high into play
Loss of the 1.4010 session low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.4000 handle
Acceptance below 1.3998 reopens the Friday low at 1.3968
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Iran/oil headlines are the near-term swing factor ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions
False break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
Monday's gap open near 1.4042 filled toward Friday's close within the first hour of Asia, leaving an Asian range of 1.3998–1.4020. London open pushed through the Asian high to 1.4026 as crude slipped on Iran de-escalation, but the move reversed back inside the range and price now sits on the 1.4009 gap fill, near the 61.8% retracement of the Asian low-to-London high leg.
Support: 1.40094, 1.39981, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40202, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4009 gap fill exposes the 1.3998 Asian low, with Friday low at 1.3968 below that
Reclaim of the 1.4020 Asian high, then the 1.4026 London high, would negate the false-break read
Oil and Iran headlines into the NY open could shift CAD; BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC is the larger event risk
False break above the Asian high, price back inside the Asian range.
The Monday gap from 1.4042 filled in Asia down to the 1.3998 asian low. London then pushed through the Asian high to the 1.4026 london high as easing Iran risk knocked crude lower, but the break did not hold. Price is back at 1.4010, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg and sitting on a flat EMA50; RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4019, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
A sustained break below the 1.4009 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.4000 handle.
A recovery above the 1.4019 london cap reopens the 1.4026 london high; clearing it brings the 1.4042 gap high into view.
Oil and Iran headlines into the NY session are the near-term CAD driver; BoC and FOMC on Wednesday fall beyond this window.
Weekend gap filled; London false break of Asian high, pullback holding 50% retracement.
Monday's gap open at 1.4042 filled into Asia on a softer USD, printing the 1.3998 asian low before a higher-low grind as falling crude weighed on CAD. Mid-London, price poked above the 1.4020 asian high to a 1.4026 london high and slipped back, with the dip holding the 1.4012 london low at the 50% retracement and the higher-low line. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.40121, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40203, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4020 asian high reopens the 1.4026 london high, with the 1.4042 gap open above that
Break of the 1.4012 london low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.4000 handle
Crude and Iran headlines can move CAD intraday; BoC and FOMC on Wednesday are the larger event risk for this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London push · RSI 57 · price 1.40154
Higher lows off Asian low; London broke Asian high, now retesting it.
Monday's bullish gap to the 1.4042 gap high was filled in Asia as softer USD and lower oil swung price down to the 1.3998 Asian low. The London open broke the 1.4017 Asian high and stalled at the 1.4026 London high. The pullback is holding the 1.4012 London low near the 61.8% of the London leg, and rising support off the Asian low is intact.
Support: 1.4012, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4012 london low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3998 asian low
Close back above the 1.4026 london high extends the London leg toward the 1.4042 gap high
Tue US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst; BoC and Fed on Wed sit beyond this window
False break above Asian high, pullback onto rising trendline.
Monday's gap open at 1.4042 faded in Asia, holding a 1.3998 Asian low to 1.4020 Asian high range as softer oil and a slipping USD offset. Early London pushed through the Asian high to a 1.4026 session high and was rejected back inside. The pullback low at 1.4012 sits on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4012, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4020 Asian high reopens the 1.4026 session high and the 1.4042 gap open
Loss of the 1.4012 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3998 Asian low
WTI swings on Iran headlines remain the main intraday CAD driver ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions
08:16 UTC
Intraday grind higher, stalled at London high · RSI 58 · price 1.40171
Higher lows from Asian low, rejection above Asian range high.
Monday opened with a roughly 29-pip gap above the Friday close, and the gap closed within the first hour as USD softened on Iran de-escalation. Price then built higher lows off the 1.3998 Asian low, and London open pushed through the 1.4020 Asian range high to a 1.4026 London high before a rejection bar returned price to 1.4017, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4009 (friday close / gap-fill low) breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.3998 asian low back in play
Acceptance above the 1.4026 london high reopens the 1.4042 weekly open print
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; Iran headlines and crude direction are the main swing factors into Wednesday's BoC and Fed
08:01 UTC
Intraday up from Asian low, stalling at London high · RSI 61 · price 1.40171
Gap filled in Asia, higher lows into a London open breakout, now pulling back.
Monday's gap up to the 1.4042 gap high filled into Friday's close at 1.4009 during the Asian session. Higher lows off the 1.3998 Asian low fed a London open breakout to 1.4026. That London high was rejected on the 07:45 UTC bar, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61. Softer crude on Iran de-escalation took away CAD's oil support, while broad USD softness capped the push.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4009 Friday close, near the 61.8% fib, puts the higher-low trendline and the 1.3998 Asian low back in play
A close above the 1.4026 London high reopens the gap high at 1.4042
A break below the 1.3998 Asian low and 1.4000 psych negates the London breakout read
Tue US durable goods and the Wed BoC/Fed decisions are the next scheduled risk; positioning is likely defensive into them
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, testing session high · RSI 68 · price 1.40226
Higher-low chain from 1.3998; London open broke above the Asian range high.
After Monday's gap filled into the 1.3998 Asian low, price built higher lows through Asia. London open then pushed through the 1.4020 Asian high to a 1.4023 session high, with CAD softening as crude eases on Iran de-escalation. Price now sits between the 50% and fib 61.8 retracement (1.4025) of the drop from the 1.4042 gap high.
Support: 1.40203, 1.40085, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40234, 1.40252, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4020 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising HL trendline and the 1.4009 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the fib 61.8 at 1.4025 and the session high opens the 1.4042 gap high
Close below the 1.3998 Asian low resets the session structure lower
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the main intraday swing factors ahead of Wednesday's BoC/Fed
07:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, testing range top · RSI 69 · price 1.40201
Higher lows since 1.3998; London pressing the 1.4020 asia high.
Monday's ~29-pip opening gap filled into Friday's close, and the move extended to an asia low at 1.3998 just under the 1.4000 round number. Since then, rising lows have carried price back up. The London open bar is now pressing the 1.4020 asia high with RSI(14) near 69, as lower crude on Iran de-escalation offsets a softer USD.
Support: 1.4009, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4020 asia high opens the upper gap zone toward the 1.4042 open high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.4009 gap fill exposes the 1.3998 asia low and 1.4000
US-Iran and crude headlines during London can shift the read; BoC and Fed both decide Wednesday
07:16 UTC
Intraday grind higher off Asian low, capped below 1.4020 · RSI 61 · price 1.40119
Weekend gap filled; Asia higher-low chain from 1.3998 within a 1.3998–1.4020 session range.
Monday's gap up to the 1.4042 gap high filled back to Friday's 1.4009 close as oil eased and USD softened on Iran de-escalation. Asia then dipped briefly below 1.40 to the 1.3998 Asian low before building higher lows. A pre-London spike high at 1.4017 was rejected, but the 1.4008 pullback low held and the rising support line from the Asian base is intact into London open.
Support: 1.40085, 1.39981, 1.39834
Resistance: 1.40174, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4020 Asian high breaks the session range and puts the 1.4042 gap high back in play
Loss of the 1.4008 pullback low and rising support shifts focus back to the 1.3998 Asian low and 1.40 psych
Break below the Asian low exposes Friday's 1.3983 spike low
Oil and Iran headlines remain the intraday driver ahead of Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, momentum cooling · RSI 60 · price 1.40119
Higher lows from 1.3998 in a 1.3998–1.4042 range after Monday gap fill.
Monday's bullish gap to the 1.4042 gap high filled within the first hour as USD softened on fading Iran strike risk. Asia then built higher lows off the 1.3998 Asian low along a rising trendline. A late-Asia spike to 1.4017 met rejection, and the pullback low at 1.4009 is holding near the 50% fib ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40085, 1.39981
Resistance: 1.40174, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and 1.4009 pullback low exposes the 1.3998 Asian low and the 1.4000 pivot
Acceptance above the 1.4017 spike high reopens the move toward the 1.4042 gap high
London open liquidity is likely to set the session range; ATR near 3 pips signals a compressed Asian tape
Tuesday US data and the Wednesday BoC and Fed decisions could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Range after faded gap, mild intraday recovery · RSI 52 · price 1.40112
Asia higher lows off 1.3998, capped below 1.4020.
Monday's gap up to the 1.4042 gap high was faded within the first hour back to Friday's 1.4010 close as USD softened on Iran de-escalation, and Asia then based at 1.3998, just under 1.4000. Asia has since ground higher on rising lows, but the 06:00 UTC spike to 1.4017 was rejected near the 38.2% of the gap fade and below the 1.4020 swing high. That leaves price sitting on the gap fill into the London open.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4020 swing high clears the 50% of the gap-fade fib and reopens the 1.4042 gap high
Break of the Asia higher-lows trendline and the 1.4010 gap fill returns focus to the 1.3998 asian low and 1.4000 psych
Failure to hold 1.3998 exposes the 1.3968 friday low
London open in the next bars typically expands the Asian range; ATR near 4 pips is compressed
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC and Fed both on Wed Oct 28, could reset this read
Monday gap filled; rising lows break Asian high pre-London.
USD/CAD's bullish gap to the 1.4042 Monday open was filled within the first hour as USD softened on Iran de-escalation. Demand at the 1.3998 Asian low held the 1.4000 handle, and a chain of rising lows has lifted price through the 1.4016 Asian high ahead of the London open. The session high at 1.4020 is the next cap, with RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 1.4016, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4016 Asian high would mark a false break back into the Asian range
A close above the 1.4020 session high opens the path back toward the 1.4042 Monday open
A break of the rising-lows line and the 1.3998 Asian low reopens sub-1.4000 trade
Crude follow-through on Iran de-escalation could erode CAD's oil support during London hours
Higher lows since Asian low, still capped below the Asian high.
Monday's opening gap to the 1.4042 gap high filled inside the first hour as USD softened on fading Iran-strike risk. The 1.3998 asian low held the 1.4000 pivot, and late Asia has built a higher-low chain along the asia trendline into the 1.4011 session high, about 24% back into the gap-fill leg. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is about 2.7 pips, with London still to open.
Support: 1.40043, 1.39981, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40107, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4020 asian high extends the retracement toward the 1.4042 gap high
A break of the asia trendline and the 1.4004 swing low puts the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.4000 pivot back in play
Losing 1.3998 exposes the 1.3968 friday low
London open liquidity could expand ranges well beyond the current 2-3 pip ATR
Tue US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, then Wed BoC 13:45 UTC and Fed 18:00 UTC, are the larger structural risks
Higher lows above 1.4000 inside Asia session range.
Monday's bullish gap to the 1.4042 gap high faded within the first hour as USD softened on Trump ruling out an immediate Iran strike. The Asia session tagged the 1.3998 Asian low and has since printed higher lows along 1.4000, with price compressing under the 1.4020 prior high and sitting on EMA50 as London open approaches.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 Asian low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.3968 friday low
Acceptance above the 1.4020 prior high (50% of the gap-fade fib) reopens the 1.4042 gap high
London open may expand the narrow Asian range; ATR near 3 pips signals compressed conditions
BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and Fed decisions on Wednesday are the larger swing risk for the 1.4000 pivot
05:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, grinding higher off Asian low · RSI 58 · price 1.40071
Gap filled, higher lows inside the Asian range.
Monday's Asia session opened with a ~29-pip gap up to the 1.4042 gap high that faded as USD softened on lower yields and Iran de-escalation, filling the 1.4009 Friday close and setting an Asian low at 1.3998. Since then, a low-volatility grind of higher lows along a rising trendline has price at 1.4007, pressing Friday's close ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4009 Friday close opens the 1.4020 swing high, the 50% retrace on the Asian drop fib
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.3998 Asian low resumes lower lows toward the 1.3983 Friday spike low
Crude follow-through after Trump ruled out Iran strikes could shift CAD tone into London
BoC and Fed decisions Wednesday remain the larger swing factors for the 1.4000 pivot
Weekend gap faded; tight late-Asia range 1.3998–1.4007.
The weekend gap high at 1.4042 was sold through Asia. Price filled Friday's 1.4009 fri close and tagged the 1.3998 asian low as softer USD outweighed the dip in oil. Since 01:15 UTC the pair has coiled in a 9-pip band just above the 1.4000 round number heading into London open, with ATR(14) near 3 pips and RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 1.39981, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40094, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 asian low and 1.4000 round number exposes the 1.3968 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.4009 fri close, then the 1.4020 swing high (50% fib), shifts focus back to the 1.4042 gap high
London open is the first test of the 1.3998–1.4007 late-Asia coil; a break from it would set the session range
05:04 UTC
Sideways after gap fill, drifting slightly higher · RSI 57 · price 1.40064
Tight Asian range 1.3998–1.4020 below a lower high, gap filled.
Monday opened with a ~29-pip gap up to the 1.4042 gap high. It filled back through the 1.4009 Friday close in the Asia session as USD eased after Trump ruled out Iran strikes. Price bottomed at the 1.3998 Asia low near 1.4000 and is now grinding in a narrow band just above the EMAs ahead of London. RSI(14) sits near 57 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4020 lower high breaks the post-gap sequence of lower highs and puts the 1.4042 gap high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3998 Asia low and 1.4000 exposes the 1.3983 Fri NY low, then the 1.3968 Friday low
Acceptance back above the 1.4009 Friday close and the 38.2% fib (~1.4015) of the gap-fill drop would shift the read away from range
Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, then Wed BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and FOMC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday range after faded opening gap · RSI 50 · price 1.40069
Asian range 1.3998–1.4042, rising lows off session base.
Monday's opening gap to the 1.4042 gap high was fully faded through Friday's close as USD eased on reduced Iran risk. The Asian low at 1.3998 was defended twice just under 1.4000 psych, and late-Asia price is grinding up a rising lows line toward the 1.4020 swing high, which sits on the 50% retrace of the gap fade. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4020 swing high exposes the 1.4042 gap high
Failure to hold the 1.3998 asian low confirms a lower low toward the 1.3968 friday low
London open relative to the Asian range; crude headlines on Iran de-escalation could shift CAD
04:31 UTC
Sideways after gap fade, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.40051
Tight Asian range 1.3998–1.4006 sitting on the 1.4000 psych level.
Monday's opening gap to the 1.4042 gap high faded through Asia and filled Friday's 1.4009 close, as USD softened after Trump ruled out an immediate Iran strike. Late in the Asia session, price is compressed between the 1.3998 asian low and 1.4006, hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR at about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 asian low and the 1.4000 psych level exposes the 1.3968 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.4020 swing high, near the 38.2% of the gap fade, puts the 1.4042 gap high back in play
London open is the first test of the compressed Asian range
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC and FOMC on Wed Oct 28, could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the gap open, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 49 · price 1.40053
Gap faded and filled; tight 1.3998–1.4006 range above the Asia low.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap up to the 1.4042 gap high. The move was sold as USD softened on Trump ruling out immediate Iran strikes, and the slide filled the gap through Friday's 1.4009 close. Since 01:15 UTC price has compressed in a 6-pip band at the 1.4000 round number, holding just above the 1.3998 Asia low with RSI(14) flat near 49, while the 1.4020 swing high caps the bounce at the 50% fib of the gap-open sell-off.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 Asia low exposes Friday's 1.3983 spike low, then the 1.3968 Friday low
Recovery through the 1.4020 swing high (50% fib of the gap-open sell-off) reopens the 1.4042 gap high
Failure to reclaim Friday's 1.4009 close keeps the gap-fill sequence intact
London open is the first test of the compressed 1.3998–1.4006 range; ATR near 4 pips reflects Asian compression
04:02 UTC
Drifting lower after Monday gap fade, now flat · RSI 46 · price 1.40053
Lower highs off the gap high, compressing on 1.4000.
Monday opened with a ~29-pip gap higher to the 1.4042 gap high. That move faded through Friday's 1.4009 close as softer US yields and Iran de-escalation weighed on USD. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing just above 1.4000 with the 1.3998 Asian low tested twice, under a lower-high line from the gap high, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.39981, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40094, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 Asian low opens the 1.3983 fri pm low, then the 1.3968 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.4009 fri close and the 1.4020 Asian high breaks the lower-high line
London open in ~3h is the likely range-expansion window out of the Asian range
No events in the next 8h; BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and FOMC on Wed Oct 28 remain the dominant catalysts
03:46 UTC
Down-drift after gap fill, momentum flat · RSI 36 · price 1.40019
Lower highs into a tight Asia range at the 1.4000 pivot.
Monday's roughly 29-pip opening gap to the 1.4042 gap high was fully filled in the Asia session as USD softened on lower yields and Iran de-escalation. Lower highs at 1.4042, 1.4020 and 1.4005 have compressed price into a 1.3998–1.4005 range at the 1.4000 pivot, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 range top and the lower-highs line breaks the compression, with the 1.4020 swing high above
Failure to hold the 1.3998 session low exposes the 1.3983 Fri NY low, then the 1.3968 Friday low
ATR near 4 pips marks a compressed Asian range that London open could expand
Tue US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC), then Wed BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and FOMC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.4042 gap high, compressing at the 1.4000 pivot.
Monday opened with a ~29-pip gap up to the 1.4042 gap high, which was sold through the Asian session as USD softened on Iran de-escalation. The gap filled back through Friday's close, and the move has since stalled at the 1.3998 session low. Price is now pinned near the 1.4000 pivot below both EMAs, with the lower high at 1.4020 capping (50% retrace of the gap-high move).
Support: 1.39981, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3998 session low exposes Friday's 1.3983 spike low, then the 1.3968 friday low
M15 close above the 1.4020 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.4042 gap high
London open is likely to expand the tight ~4-pip ATR Asian range; BoC and FOMC on Wed remain the dominant event risk
03:02 UTC
Downtrend from the weekend gap high · RSI 37 · price 1.40034
Lower highs since the Asia open, gap filled, pressing 1.4000.
The Asia session faded the weekend gap from the 1.4042 gap high and filled Friday's 1.4009 close, with a lower swing high at 1.4020 capping the bounce. The move tracked softer USD and easing Iran-risk headlines. The session low at 1.3998 is holding so far, and RSI(14) sits near 37.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4020 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence along the gap-fade trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3998 session low exposes Friday's 1.3983 spike low (fri low)
Reclaiming the 1.4009 Friday close puts price back above the 38.2% gap-fade fib
London open is likely to expand the narrow Asian range around 1.4000; BoC and FOMC on Wed remain the larger event risk
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, pinned at 1.4000.
Monday's 30-pip gap up to the 1.4042 gap high has fully faded. Asia filled Friday's 1.4009 close and printed an asian low at 1.3998 as softer USD and lower yields weighed. A lower high at 1.4005, under the 1.4020 swing high, caps a tight drift around 1.4000 into London open, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4020 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3998 asian low exposes the 1.3983 fri ny low, then the 1.3968 friday low
London open liquidity may decide whether 1.4000 holds or gives way
Iran/oil headlines shifting crude could jolt CAD intraday
Lower highs from the Monday gap high, sitting on the 1.4000 pivot.
Monday's gap open near 1.4040 has been fully faded through the Asia session. Price slipped back through Friday's close at 1.4009 to a session low at 1.3998 as softer USD and lower Treasury yields weigh. Lower highs from the 1.4042 gap high and the 1.4020 bounce high define the move, with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.39981, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40094, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4020 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.3998 session low exposes the Fri spike low at 1.3983, then the Friday low at 1.3968
Reclaim of the Fri close at 1.4009 would mark the gap fill as rejected
BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and FOMC on Wed 28 Oct could materially shift this read; US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from 1.4042 gap high, pinned at 1.4000.
Monday's bullish gap to the 1.4042 gap high faded through the Asia session. Price is now below the 1.4009 Friday close and sitting on the 1.4000 pivot, just above the 1.3998 session low, after a lower high at 1.4020. The slide tracks softer USD and lower yields after Trump ruled out immediate Iran strikes, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.39981, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40094, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3998 session low exposes the 1.3968 Friday low
M15 close back above the 1.4020 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 1.4042 gap high
Reclaiming the 1.4009 Friday close would leave the gap fill as a test of 1.4000 rather than a break
London open is the first liquidity test of the 1.4000 pivot
02:02 UTC
Intraday down from gap open, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 44 · price 1.40035
Gap filled, lower highs through Asia, pinned at 1.4000 pivot.
Monday's ~30-pip gap higher to the 1.4042 gap high was filled to Friday's 1.4009 close within the first hour as USD softened on Iran de-escalation headlines. Asia has since printed lower highs from the 1.4020 asia high to a 1.3998 session low, and price is compressing on the 1.4000 pivot. RSI(14) is mid-40s and ATR(14) is about 5 pips, a quiet tape ahead of London open.
Support: 1.39981, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40094, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 session low exposes Friday's 1.3983 spike low, then the 1.3968 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.4020 asia high, which aligns with the 50% fib of the gap-high move, breaks the lower-high sequence
Gap fill at 1.4009 is the first cap; repeated rejection there keeps the descending trendline intact
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) loom over the 1.4000 pivot; Tuesday US data is the next scheduled catalyst
01:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the weekly open · RSI 34 · price 1.40018
Weekend gap filled, lower highs into the 1.4000 round number.
The Asia session opened with a roughly 29-pip gap higher to the weekly open high at 1.4042, on haven USD demand from weekend Iran and China headlines. That gap was fully filled, and price slipped through the Friday close at 1.4009, printing a lower high at 1.4020. It is now testing the 1.4000 round number, with a session low at 1.3998. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s and is not stretched.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 1.3998 session low expose the Friday spike low at 1.3983, then the Friday low at 1.3968 set after Canadian retail sales
A recovery back above the Friday close at 1.4009 would mark the 1.4000 round number as holding
An M15 close above the 1.4020 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the weekly open and negates the intraday downtrend read
Fresh US-Iran or oil-supply headlines in thin Asia liquidity can reopen the gap move
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, weekend gap faded · RSI 37 · price 1.39994
Lower highs since the Monday open, weekend gap fully filled, price pressing 1.4000.
The Asia session opened with a roughly 29-pip gap higher to 1.4042 on thin weekend haven USD flow. The move has been sold all session: price cut back through the 1.4009 Friday close and is now sitting on the 1.4000 round number. The 1.4020 bounce high marks the latest lower high, and the session low is printing on the current bar.
Support: 1.39953, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40094, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3995 late Fri low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3983 spike low and the 1.3968 Friday low
Reclaim of the 1.4009 Fri close and the 1.4020 bounce high would break the lower-high trendline from the gap high
London open typically expands the thin Asian range; ATR near 5.5 pips is likely to widen
Oil / Middle East and US-Iran headlines remain the main intraday CAD driver; BoC and FOMC (both Wed) loom over the week
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since open · RSI 43 · price 1.40044
Weekend gap up fully filled, lower high at 1.4020, now testing 1.4000.
USDCAD opened the week ~30 pips higher, but the 1.4042 sunday high was rejected and the gap fill to Friday's close came inside the first hour, consistent with firm CAD on oil and BoC-hike pricing. A lower high at 1.4020 followed, and early Asia session trade is now pressing the 1.4000 psych handle below the 1.4010 gap fill level and both EMAs.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40095, 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 psych handle exposes Friday's 1.3983 spike low, then the 1.3968 friday low set after Canada retail sales
Reclaim of 1.4010 gap fill and a break of the 1.4020 lower high invalidates the descending trendline read
Thin Asia session flow: US-Iran or China countermeasure headlines can lift USD via haven demand and shift this read
01:04 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs after Sunday gap · RSI 41 · price 1.40044
Weekend gap filled, lower high at 1.4020, testing 1.4000.
Sunday's open gapped about 30 pips higher to the 1.4042 gap high. Supply has since unwound it fully, and the Asia session is now pressing the 1.4000 round number after a lower high at the 1.4020 asian high. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, and Friday NY's 1.3983 swing low sits just beneath, with 1.3968 as the friday low.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number exposes the 1.3983 swing low and the 1.3968 friday low
Reclaim of the 1.4020 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline from the gap high
Oil and Iran headlines into London open could shift CAD, with BoC and Fed both due Wednesday
Weekly-open gap filled; lower high at 1.4020 under 1.4042 open high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a 29-pip gap above Friday's 1.4009 close to a 1.4042 gap high. It fully faded back to the gap fill at 1.4010 as weekend Iran de-escalation talk trimmed the USD safe-haven bid. The gap-fade bounce stalled at the prior high near 1.4020, a lower high, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000, 1.3983
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4010 gap fill exposes the 1.4000 round number and Friday's NY spike low at 1.3983
M15 close above the 1.4020 prior high breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 1.4042 gap high
Iran/oil headlines through Asia could move the pair before London
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed Wed 18:00 UTC are the week's main structural risks
00:31 UTC
Post-gap fade, flattening in early Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.40126
Opening gap above Friday close filled; tight 1.4010–1.4020 range below gap high.
Asia session opened with a ~30-pip gap above Friday's 1.4009 close to a 1.4042 gap high on weekend Iran headlines. It faded to the gap fill at 1.4010 within the first two hours. The bounce has a session high at 1.4020 and shows lower highs from the open, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 gap fill exposes the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4020 session high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 1.4042 gap high
Rejection near the 38.2% retrace of the gap fade (≈1.4022) keeps the range read intact
BoC and FOMC decisions Wednesday are the larger structural risk; nothing scheduled in the next few hours
00:16 UTC
Flat after weekend gap fill, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 1.40132
Sunday gap up fully filled; tight early Asian range above 1.4000.
The Sunday open gapped about 29 pips above Friday's 1.4009 close to a 1.4042 gap high, then filled the gap within the first hour of the Asia session. Price now sits at 1.4013, on the 38.2% fib of the Friday low (1.3968, set as CAD firmed around the retail sales data) to gap high leg, inside a thin 1.4010–1.4020 Asian range just above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 gap fill exposes the 1.4000 round number and the 50% fib near 1.4005
Reclaim of the 1.4020 Asia high, where Friday's 1.4018 high also sits, reopens the 1.4042 gap high
Loss of 1.4000 shifts focus back to the 1.3968 friday low
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Oil and BoC-hike-odds headlines into Wednesday's decision can still move CAD in thin Asia liquidity
00:02 UTC
Flat after weekend gap faded · RSI 51 · price 1.40132
Early Asia range 1.4010–1.4042, gap fully filled to Friday close.
Asia opened with a ~29-pip gap higher to 1.4042 that was sold straight back to the 1.40095 gap fill at Friday's close, with the bounce stalling at 1.40203 near the 38.2% of that leg. Friday's range still frames things: the 1.3968 low printed around the Canada retail sales release, and the 18:00 UTC spike low sits at 1.39834.
Support: 1.40095, 1.4000, 1.39834
Resistance: 1.40203, 1.4042
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40095 gap fill reopens the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.40203 bounce high and 38.2% shifts focus back to the 1.4042 gap high
Break of 1.4000 brings the Friday spike low at 1.39834 into play
BoC and FOMC both on Wed; no scheduled data in the next 8h, so Asia-session drift dominates