Lower highs and lower lows since triple top near 1.4295, now basing above 1.3968.
A triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 gave way mid-month, and the seven-session slide on Fed–BoC divergence printed a sequence of lower highs down to the 1.3968 swing low. Since then price has held a tight consolidation around the 1.4000 round number, with Monday's push stalling at 1.4055 (recent high), just under the lower highs trendline. Price sits below both EMAs, EMA20 remains under EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 23 pips, which leaves the range primed for a volatility event.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike ~85–90% priced) and Fed 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger repricing risk for CAD
H4 close below the 1.3968 swing low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the six-week low
H4 close above the 1.4082 lower high breaks the descending structure and puts the fib 50% retracement at 1.4134 in view
Repeated holds of the 1.4000 round number with ATR still compressing point to a base forming rather than continuation
Lower highs trendline from 1.4082 capping again keeps the consolidation inside the broader downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; tight base above 1.3968.
The triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 gave way to a steady lower-high, lower-low sequence. BoC hike bets and firm oil drove a seven-session slide to the 1.3968 swing low. That decline has since stalled into a tight consolidation around the 1.4000 psych level, with rallies capped below the fib 23.6% retracement at 1.4044 and under the descending lower-highs line. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 23 pips, and price holds below both EMAs, with EMA20 still under EMA50.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4082 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4134 prior lows back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3968 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 1.3732 5-month low the next reference cited
BoC decision and MPR Wed 13:45 UTC: a hold at 2.25% versus a priced hike could push price back above the 1.4000 psych level
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, the same day as the BoC, may amplify or reverse the BoC reaction depending on the December guidance
Continued ATR compression near 1.4000 into Wednesday points to a range break when the two central bank decisions land
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299; tight base above 1.3968.
Three failed tests of 1.4290-1.4299 formed a triple top. The break of the 1.4196 neckline started a run of lower highs and lower lows, extended by BoC hike bets and firmer oil. Price has since compressed into a tight consolidation between the 1.3968 swing low and the 1.4042 lower high, holding around the 1.4000 round number. ATR(14) near 23 pips is roughly half the early-window regime, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain bearishly stacked.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4042 lower high and the falling lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Recovery through the 1.4082 swing high exposes the fib 50% retracement at 1.4134
Failure to hold the 1.3968 swing low and the 1.4000 round number confirms another lower low
BoC decision Wed Oct 28 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.50% priced) and Fed at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read; ATR compression leaves room for expansion
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, losing pace near 1.4000 · RSI 39 · price 1.40054
Lower highs and lower lows since the triple top at 1.4299.
Three tests of 1.4290-1.4299 failed to break higher, and the triple top resolved into a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That sequence has carried price about 330 pips down to the 1.3968 swing low, with CAD supported by firmer oil and BoC hike bets. Price is now compressing around the 1.4000 round number below both EMAs, with ATR(14) near 23 pips versus 35-40 pips during the early-month selloff. The latest lower high at 1.4043 sits near the 23.6% retracement and capped the Monday gap higher.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision and Fed decision both land Wed Oct 28 and could materially shift this read; a BoC hold would be the larger surprise
H4 close below the 1.3968 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 1.4043 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 1.4082 swing high and 38.2% fib near 1.4095 come next
Recovery into the 1.4134 gap level would neutralise the late-week breakdown
Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence are pre-Fed tone-setters near the 1.4000 round number
Three failures at 1.4293–1.4299 formed a triple top. The pair has since printed lower highs and lower lows, a roughly 330-pip slide to the 1.3968 swing low, as oil and BoC-hike pricing kept CAD bid. The weekend gap up to the 1.4042 gap high, just under the 23.6% fib, faded back toward the round number at 1.4000, with price below both EMAs and the EMA20 under the EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to about 23 pips from 30+ earlier in the window, so ranges are compressing around 1.4000 ahead of central-bank risk.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC (f/c hike to 2.5%): a hold is the larger surprise and could materially shift this read
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC follows BoC within hours, a double event risk for the pair
H4 close above the 1.4082 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 50% fib at 1.4134 sits above
Failure to hold the 1.3968 swing low extends the lower-low structure, with the 1.3732 five-month low the next reference
Repeated rejection at the 1.4042 gap high keeps the downtrend structure intact