Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; short higher-low sequence off the 1.3968 low.
The triple top at 1.4293-1.4299 gave way to a steady lower-high, lower-low decline, ending at Friday's six-week low of 1.3968. Rising BoC hike pricing and firmer oil drove the move. Since then the pair has carved a shallow base above the 1.40 pivot along a rising line of higher lows, and the latest push is testing the week high at 1.4055. That level sits at the 23.6% retracement of the decline fib, with EMA50 near 1.4060 just overhead and EMA20 still below EMA50. ATR(14) near 21 pips has compressed from the 25-30 pip readings earlier in the window, a coiled setup heading into Wednesday's back-to-back BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4082 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 50% fib at 1.4134
Rejection at the week high and a loss of the 1.4009 higher low and rising line puts the 1.40 pivot and six-week low back in focus
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC; a surprise hold against ~85% hike pricing could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, then Thu PCE, add a second event risk within the next few bars
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 55 · price 1.40376
Lower highs from 1.4299; basing 1.3968–1.4055 with minor higher lows.
Three failed tests of 1.4293–1.4299 gave way to a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That leg carried USD/CAD roughly 330 pips to the 1.3968 six-week low as CAD rallied on hawkish BoC expectations and firm oil. Since then the pair has based in a 1.3968–1.4055 band with marginal higher lows, reclaiming the EMA20 near 1.4015 while staying below the EMA50. EMA20 remains under EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 24 pips, well below the 35+ pip ranges seen during the decline. Price is now pressing the 1.4055 swing high, close to the 23.6% retracement of the drop, into Wednesday's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4015, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing could break the 1.4055 swing high and the 1.4082 prior high
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC adds two-way USD risk on the same day as the BoC
H4 close above 1.4082 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 50% fib at 1.4134
Loss of the 1.4000 psych pivot and the 1.3968 six-week low resumes the downtrend
A close back below the ema20 near 1.4015 undercuts the higher lows in the base
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299, now a tight base above 1.3968.
Three failures near 1.4300 gave way to a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That decline ran roughly 330 pips into the 1.3968 swing low as BoC hike pricing and firmer oil fed a seven-day CAD rally. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3968–1.4055 consolidation, with the round number at 1.4000 holding as the floor and ATR(14) contracting to about 23 pips. Price has moved back above EMA20 but remains below EMA50, so the lower-highs trendline is still intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.4055 range top breaks the consolidation and exposes the 1.4082 swing high, then the 50% fib at 1.4134
Loss of the 1.4000 round number and a break of the 1.3968 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence
A push through the lower-highs trendline would mark the first structural change since the triple top
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299; tight base 1.3968-1.4055.
Since the 1.4299 rejection mid-month the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, with the CAD leg driven by Fed-BoC divergence after Macklem opened the door to a hike. The decline stalled at the 1.3968 swing low on Friday and price is now coiling in a 1.3968-1.4055 box around the 1.4000 round number. Price is flat on EMA20, while the lower high at 1.4055 sits just under EMA50 and the 23.6% retracement. ATR(14) has compressed to about 23 pips from 30+ earlier in the window, a typical pre-event squeeze.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC: a hold versus ~85% hike pricing could break the box higher, and a hawkish hike could test the 1.3968 swing low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC follows the BoC and could reverse or extend the BoC reaction the same day
H4 close below 1.3968 extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 1.4082 prior high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 50% fib at 1.4134
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence today could test the 1.4000 round number before the central banks
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top, now a tight base above 1.3968.
The pair broke down from a two-week 1.4195-1.4299 range after a triple top near 1.4299, as CAD outperformed on Fed–BoC policy divergence and firm oil. It then printed a sequence of lower highs into the 1.3968 swing low. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3968-1.4055 base around the 1.4000 round number. It is capped by the shallow lower-highs line from 1.4082 and by the 23.6% fib near 1.4046, sitting just under both EMAs. ATR(14) has slipped to about 22 pips from 30+ during the breakdown, a compression regime heading into Wednesday's BoC and FOMC decisions.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4195
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3968 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 1.4055 week high and the 1.4082 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4095
Recovery back toward the 1.4195 range low would neutralise the breakdown read
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) could materially shift this read; a hold is the larger CAD-negative tail
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC follows the BoC and can extend or reverse any BoC-driven move
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, decelerating into a base · RSI 46 · price 1.40132
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299; tight base 1.3968-1.4055.
A triple top near 1.4300 gave way to a steady run of lower highs and lower lows. CAD rallied on BoC hike pricing and firmer oil, carrying the pair to a 1.3968 swing low. Price has since compressed into a 1.3968-1.4055 base around the 1.4000 psych level, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain bearishly stacked. The bounce stalled at the 1.4055 recent high just above the 23.6% fib of the 1.4299-1.3968 decline, and ATR(14) has contracted to about 22 pips, which suggests a breakout is pending.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4095
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger surprise relative to pricing
H4 close above the 1.4082 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4095
Failure to hold the 1.4000 psych level and a break of the 1.3968 swing low extend the lower-low structure
Rejection again at the 1.4055 recent high keeps the base capped beneath EMA50