21:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading near 1.40 · RSI 39 · price 1.40094
Lower highs since the 1.4299 triple top; dip below 1.4000 reclaimed.
Three failures at 1.4293-1.4299 formed a triple top, and price has since printed an unbroken sequence of lower highs as CAD rallied on oil and BoC hike pricing. The latest leg briefly swept below the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3968 swing low before closing back above it. Price is now pressing the lower-high trendline from 1.4299, with ATR(14) contracting to about 23 pips from 30+ earlier in the window.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4095, 1.4134
What it said to watch
- BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.5% priced) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
- H4 close above the 1.4044 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4095, then the 50% fib at 1.4134
- H4 close back below the 1.3968 swing low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3732 5-month low
- Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number turns the recent false break into a confirmed breakdown