Lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 1.4299 triple top, now pressing below 1.4000.
USDCAD has printed a steady lower-high/lower-low sequence since the triple top at 1.4293–1.4299, with every bounce capped below the falling lower highs trendline, the latest at the 1.4018 lower high. CAD's seven-session run on firmer oil and BoC hike pricing has taken price through the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.3968 swing low. ATR(14) has eased to about 22 pips from the 30+ seen during the top, so the slide is grinding rather than accelerating. Overhead, the prior high at 1.4082 sits ahead of the 38.2% drop retrace near 1.4095.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4018, 1.4082
What it said to watch
BoC decision Wed Oct 28 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.5% consensus); a hold would be the larger shock to the CAD-led slide
Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC; hawkish December guidance would test the downtrend read the same day
H4 close back above the 1.4018 lower high, and the lower highs trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence
A recovery through the 1.4082 prior high would put the 38.2% drop retrace near 1.4095 in play
Failure to hold the 1.3968 swing low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 5-month low at 1.3732 the next reference
Acceptance back above the 1.4000 psych level would point to the slide losing traction
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299 triple top.
Three rejections at 1.4293-1.4299 formed a triple top. The pair then broke the 1.4196 floor and has printed lower highs and lower lows for seven sessions, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both. The slide reflects CAD support from BoC hike repricing and firm oil. Price is now pinned at the 1.3997 swing low and the 1.40 handle, and ATR(14) near 19 pips points to a slower grind rather than an accelerating drop.
Support: 1.3997, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4082, 1.4112
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3997 swing low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.3732 5-month low the next level cited in the news
Close above the 1.4044 lower high breaks the descending trendline and slows the downtrend
Recovery through the 1.4082 swing high and the fib 38.2 retracement at 1.4112 would undercut the lower-high read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC today could shift the USD leg; a soft print keeps pressure on the 1.40 handle
The BoC decision on Oct 28 and the Fed decision next week are the main event risks for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; range floor broken.
Three failed tests of 1.4293–1.4299 formed a triple top. The break below the 1.4192 range floor turned into a steady lower-high sequence, with oil near 5-week highs and BoC hike pricing driving CAD. Price is sitting just above the 1.3997 swing low at the 1.4000 psych level, capped by the ema20 near 1.4045 and the falling lower-high trendline. ATR(14) has contracted to about 18 pips from roughly 25–30 in the top-building phase, so the decline is extending without fresh expansion.
Support: 1.39966, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.40816, 1.41122
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3997 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens room toward the 1.3732 5-month low
Close back above the ema20 near 1.4045 is the first sign the selling momentum is stalling
Reclaim of the 1.4082 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the swing sequence; fib 38.2 of the decline sits at 1.4112
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoC decision Oct 28 with ~20bp of a hike priced; a hold or dovish hike risks a sharp unwind of the CAD leg
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the triple top at 1.4293–1.4299. A descending trendline from that peak has capped every bounce, and price is now pressing the 1.3997 swing low just under the 1.4000 handle. The slide tracks oil strength and hawkish BoC repricing against a soft USD. H4 ranges are narrowing into the figure, and RSI near 32 shows momentum stretched but not yet oversold. Price trades below both EMAs; the nearest overhead markers are the 1.4044 lower high, the 1.4082 swing high and the fib 50% retracement of the 1.4299–1.3997 leg at 1.4148.
Support: 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40816, 1.4148
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3997 swing low extends the lower-low sequence through 1.4000
H4 close above the 1.4082 swing high would break the lower-high structure and the descending trendline
Reclaiming the fib 50% retracement at 1.4148 would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) today could materially shift this read
BoC decision Oct 28 (~78% hike priced): a hold is the main risk to the current structure
Lower highs and lower lows since the triple top near 1.4300.
Three failed pushes at 1.4293-1.4299 formed a triple top. Since the Oct 14 high, the pair has printed a clean run of lower highs and lower lows, now about 300 pips lower and testing the 1.4000 round number. The slide fits the digest's CAD-bid backdrop of an oil rally and BoC hike pricing alongside a softer USD. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 18 pips, so the decline reads as a steady grind beneath the descending trendline, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50, rather than an accelerating impulse.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4082, 1.4114
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence, with the 5-month low at 1.3732 the next reference
Reclaim of the 1.4044 lower high and the descending trendline would interrupt the lower-high structure; 1.4082 swing high sits above
Rebound into the 1.4114 fib 38.2 retracement would mark a deeper correction of the triple-top decline
Fri Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs, then the BoC decision on Oct 28 (hike largely priced), could materially shift this read