USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 23 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Recovery from NY low, flattening into the weekly close · RSI 54 · price 1.40083
V-rebound from 1.3968, then higher lows above 1.3995 and price back over 1.4000.
The session low printed at 1.3968 shortly after the mixed Canada retail sales data. The beat in US flash PMIs then drove a rally to the 1.4015 NY high, where a spike was rejected down to the 1.3983 spike low. Price has since built higher lows and is holding just above the 1.4000 round number in thin late-NY trade, still capped below the 1.4018 London high.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number puts the 1.3983 spike low back in play
A break of the 1.4015 NY high and the 1.4018 London high would clear the day's range top
A loss of the 1.3968 session low would reassert the one-month-low leg
Friday close liquidity is thin; BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next structural risks
Tight post-spike range 1.3995–1.4008 inside the NY rebound.
The pair slid to a 1.3968 day low around the 12:30 UTC Canada retail sales release, a false break of 1.4000 psych that NY reclaimed. A 17:45 UTC spike off the 1.4015 ny high was rejected, and price has since compressed between the 1.3995 range low and 1.4008 range high. It sits near the 23.6% of the ny rally fib late in the Friday session, with ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39953, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40078, 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4008 range high brings the 1.4015 ny high and 1.4018 london high back into play
Failure at 1.4000 psych and the 1.3995 range low reopens the 50–61.8% ny rally fib zone near 1.3986–1.3991, with the 1.3968 day low below
Friday close into thin liquidity; BoC and FOMC decisions on Wed 28 Oct are the next major drivers of this read
London faded from the 1.4018 london high, and Canada's mixed retail sales sent price to a 1.3968 day low. Beat-driven US PMIs then lifted NY to the 1.4015 ny high, where a sharp rejection retraced near 61.8% of the NY rally to the 1.3983 spike low. Late-NY higher lows have since put price back above the 1.4000 round number into the Friday close.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4000 round number and the late NY lows trendline would break the higher-low chain and expose the 1.3983 spike low
The ny high at 1.4015 has capped twice; a close above it opens the 1.4018 london high
Below the spike low, the 1.3968 day low is the next reference
Weekend gap risk ahead of the BoC decision (Wed 13:45 UTC) and the Fed later that day, both able to shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, flattening in late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.40067
NY range 1.3995–1.4015 above 1.4000 after V-recovery from session low.
USDCAD fell to a 1.3968 session low after mixed Canada retail sales, then retraced the whole drop as hot US PMIs revived dollar demand, stalling at the 1.4015 NY high. A 17:45 UTC spike to 1.3983 reversed quickly, and late NY is back above the 1.4000 round number inside a 1.3995–1.4015 range with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3995, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4015 ny high and 1.4018 london high breaks the range to the upside
Loss of the 1.3995 range base reopens the 61.8% fib near 1.3986 and the 1.3968 session low
Friday close and thin late-NY liquidity; oil and Middle East headlines over the weekend could gap the open
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled risks for this read
19:46 UTC
Sideways, pinned to 1.4000 · RSI 52 · price 1.40003
Lower highs vs higher lows, compressing around 1.4000 late in NY.
Early in the NY session USD/CAD fell to a 1.3968 day low around the Canadian retail sales data. It then retraced to a 1.4015 NY high as the US PMI and Michigan beats restored USD demand. A late-session spike rejection from that high to the 1.3983 spike low has left price chopping on 1.4000 psych, with a pivot low at 1.3995, the NY high capping below the 1.4018 London high and EMAs flat underfoot.
Support: 1.3995, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4018 London high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3995 pivot low, then the 1.3983 spike low, reopens the 1.3968 day low and the fib 61.8% zone of the NY rally
Late-Friday liquidity is thin. BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next major risks to this range
Tight post-spike range at the 1.4000 handle, late NY on Friday.
USDCAD climbed back from the 1.3968 NY low as US flash PMI and Michigan beats revived dollar demand. The rally topped at the 1.4015 spike high, and a 17:45 UTC flush to the 1.3983 spike low was rejected back to the 38.2% fib. Price is now compressing in a 1.3995–1.4004 range at the psych handle, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and EMAs flat just beneath.
Support: 1.39953, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40043, 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4004 range top exposes the 1.4015 spike high and the 1.4018 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3995 range low puts the 1.3983 spike low and 61.8% fib in focus, then the 1.3968 ny low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close can exaggerate wicks around 1.4000
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) next week are the larger structural catalysts
19:16 UTC
NY recovery stalled, flat just above 1.4000 · RSI 53 · price 1.40021
V-recovery from session low, then post-flush compression above the round number.
USDCAD broke below the Asian range into a 1.3968 session low around the Canada retail sales release. It then retraced the full move on firm US PMI and Michigan prints to a 1.4015 NY high. A late-NY flush to the 1.3983 spike low, past the 61.8% of the NY rally, was rejected, and price is now compressing just above the 1.4000 round number with flat EMA20/50 underneath and RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.3983 spike low
Break of the 1.3983 spike low exposes the 1.3968 session low and the one-month low area
Close above the 1.4015 ny high brings the 1.4018 london high back into play
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend oil and Middle East headlines could gap the open ahead of BoC and Fed on Wed Oct 28
19:03 UTC
Rebound from session low, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 58 · price 1.40021
Tight 1.3995–1.4004 range below NY high after spike reversal.
The post-retail-sales drop to the 1.3968 session low, the one-month-low break the CAD digest flags, was fully retraced in NY. The 17:45 UTC spike from the 1.4015 NY high to the 1.3983 spike low reversed within the bar. Late Friday, price is compressing between the 1.3995 range low and 1.4004 range top, near the 38.2% retrace of the rebound and just above EMA20/EMA50. RSI(14) is 58 and ATR(14) about 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.3995, 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4004, 1.4015, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3995 range low reopens the 1.3983 spike low and the 1.3968 session low
Acceptance above the 1.4004 range top puts the 1.4015 NY high and 1.4018 London high back in play
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity into the weekly close; spikes like the 17:45 UTC flush can recur
BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC same day could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3968 day low, capped by 1.4015 NY high.
USDCAD broke below 1.4000 around the Canada retail sales release to a 1.3968 day low, then retraced the whole move during NY hours after the US PMI and Michigan beats, topping at the 1.4015 NY high. A 31-pip spike to the 1.3983 spike low was bought back within the bar. Price is now pinned at the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 50 and EMA20/50 converged just below.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4015, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3983 spike low turns the NY recovery into a lower high and puts the 1.3968 day low back in play
Close above the 1.4015 NY high and 1.4018 London high clears the session top
Thin late-NY Friday liquidity; weekend oil and Middle East headlines are the main CAD risk into the open
18:31 UTC
Recovering intraday, back at 1.4000 · RSI 61 · price 1.40027
London false break below 1.4000, NY higher lows reclaim.
London cracked the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.3968 session low around mixed Canada retail sales. NY then put in higher lows and rallied back to a 1.4015 NY high as bank notes pushed back on an October BoC hike. A 31-pip spike to 1.3983 at 17:45 UTC was absorbed and price now sits on 1.4000, with the spike low near the 61.8% of the NY rally and RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39834, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40148, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3983 spike low breaks the NY higher-lows sequence and reopens the 1.3968 session low
Close above the 1.4015 NY high and the 1.4018 london high clears the day's range top
Late Friday NY into the weekend close; thin liquidity can exaggerate wicks like the 17:45 spike
BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC is the next major CAD event risk
NY rally rejected at ny high, price back at 1.4000.
USD/CAD hit a 1.3968 session low around the 12:30 UTC Canada retail sales print, then retraced the whole leg in the NY session on the US PMI beat, stalling at the 1.4015 ny high just under the 1.4018 london high. A 31-pip late-NY spike bar wicked to the 1.3983 spike low, roughly a 61.8–67% retrace of the rally, and price now sits at the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4015, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number restores the NY rally structure; 1.4015 ny high and 1.4018 london high cap the day
Break of the 1.3983 spike low clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.3968 session low
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thin; weekend oil and Middle East headlines could shift the open
BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next scheduled risk for this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 1.40096
V-recovery, HH/HL chain since 12:45 UTC, back inside Asian range.
Mixed Canada retail sales extended the London selloff to the 1.3968 NY low. The dollar then turned higher around the US PMI beat, building a higher low at 1.3975 and reclaiming the 1.4000 round number. Late NY, price is stalling at the 1.4012 session high after retracing roughly 79% of the London-NY drop from 1.4018, with RSI(14) cooling near 63.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39748, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40119, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4018 London high clears the Asian range top and completes the full retrace of the drop
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number returns focus to the 1.3975 higher low and the NY rally trendline
Break below the 1.3968 NY low turns the morning dip into a lower-low sequence
Thin Friday liquidity after London close; next week's BoC and FOMC decisions are the major catalysts beyond this window
17:31 UTC
V-shaped recovery off the NY low, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 1.40105
Higher highs and higher lows since 12:45 UTC; price back inside the Asia/London range, testing its top.
Mixed Canada retail sales at 12:30 UTC pushed USDCAD through the Asian low and the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3968 day low. After the US PMI and Michigan beats, price retraced the whole leg back to the 1.4011 ny high. That turns the drop into a false break, with RSI(14) near 66 and price now just under the 1.4018 london high that capped Asia and London.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3990, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40115, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4018 london high breaks the Asia/London range top and extends the higher-high chain
Slip back below the 1.4000 round number exposes the 50% fib at 1.3990 and leaves the reclaim at risk of failing
A return toward the 1.3968 day low would negate the false-break read
Late NY on Friday with no scheduled USD/CAD data; thin liquidity into the close can distort the session-high test
Higher lows off 1.3968, back inside 1.3968–1.4018 day range.
Around Canada's mixed retail sales, the slide from the 1.4018 London high swept below the Asian lows to a 1.3968 session low. The NY recovery since then has reclaimed the 1.4000 round number on a higher-low chain, with RSI(14) near 69. Price is now pressing the 1.4008 swing high.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39882, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40084, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number exposes the fib 50% of the NY recovery at 1.3988
M15 close above the 1.4018 london high breaks the day's range top; a stall at the 1.4008 swing high leaves a lower high beneath it
Loss of the 1.3968 session low resumes the one-month-low slide flagged in the CAD backdrop
Late Friday NY session into the weekly close; oil and Middle East supply headlines remain the main CAD swing factor
17:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, V-shaped off day low · RSI 72 · price 1.40064
False break below Asian low reversed; higher lows back above 1.4000.
London broke below the 1.3997 Asian low. Around the Canada retail sales print, price dropped to a 1.3968 day low, then the US PMI and sentiment beats drove a steady climb back above the 1.4000 round number. Late NY has printed a 1.4008 NY high with RSI(14) near 72, and the 1.4018 London high still caps the day's range.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39882, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40084, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4018 London high takes price back above the full day range
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number puts the recovery fib 50% at 1.3988 back in focus
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; BoC and Fed decisions on Wednesday could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since NY low · RSI 67 · price 1.40008
False break below Asian low, reclaimed; HL chain back to 1.4000.
The early-NY slide around Canada retail sales broke the 1.3997 Asian low and reached 1.3968 (ny low), but the break failed. A higher-low chain has since lifted price through the 1.3989 prior high and back to the 1.4000 round number, just above the 61.8% fib of the London high-to-NY low drop. RSI(14) is near 67, firm but not stretched, as the late-NY Friday session thins.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3989, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4007, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3989 prior high puts the 1.4000 reclaim in doubt
Break of the higher-low trendline from 1.3968 ends the recovery structure
Close above the 1.4007 78.6% fib leaves the 1.4018 london high as the next reference
Thin late-Friday trade after London close; BoC (Wed) and FOMC next week are the next major catalysts
16:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 54 · price 1.39969
Higher lows off 1.3968 NY low, retesting broken 1.4000 from below.
London broke the Asian low near 1.3997 and the 1.4000 round number, and the slide accelerated to 1.3968 around the 12:30 UTC Canada retail sales release as oil-backed CAD strength persisted. NY has since built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline, clearing the broken high at 1.3989. After London close, price is pressing the 61.8% fib of the London-NY drop just under 1.4000, with EMA50 flat around the same area.
Support: 1.3989, 1.39748, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40075, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 1.40075 swing high, then the 1.4018 london high
Rejection at 1.4000 that loses the broken high at 1.3989 turns the retest into a lower high
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.39748 higher low returns focus to the 1.3968 ny low
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity; next event risk is BoC on Wed Oct 28 and the FOMC later that day
16:16 UTC
Intraday down, NY bounce building · RSI 56 · price 1.39948
Asian range broken lower; NY higher lows into 1.4000 retest.
CAD caught a bid around the Canadian retail sales release. That knocked USDCAD out of the Asian range and through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3968 session low, about 50 pips off the London high at 1.4018. NY has since printed a chain of higher lows near 1.3980, and price is back at 1.4000. That level sits near the 61.8% fib of the London drop and is capping the bounce so far, with EMA50 overhead.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number reclaims the Asian range and negates the breakdown
Loss of the 1.3980 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and re-exposes the 1.3968 session low
Close above the 1.4018 london high fully retraces the session drop
BoC and Fed decisions next Wed are the next scheduled catalysts; thin late-Friday trade into the weekend
16:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off NY low · RSI 58 · price 1.39948
Higher lows off 1.3968, retesting broken Asian low from below.
USDCAD broke the Asian range low in the first hour of NY and reached a 1.3968 NY low, with oil strength and BoC hike pricing keeping CAD firm. Since then it has printed higher lows and is now retesting the broken asian low at 1.3997 just under the 1.40 handle, which sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 1.4018–1.3968 drop.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3975, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4018
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 1.3997 and the 1.40 handle invalidates the NY breakdown read and opens the path to the london high at 1.4018
A failure to hold the prior high at 1.3989 exposes the swing low at 1.3975 and the rising trendline
A break below the 1.3968 ny low restores the lower-low sequence
Late Friday NY liquidity into the weekend close; BoC and Fed decisions on Wed Oct 28 are the next major scheduled risks
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 38 · price 1.39803
Lower highs from London high; tight 1.3975–1.3989 range above session low.
USDCAD broke the Asian range floor after the London high at 1.4018 and slid through the 1.4000 round number into the NY open, printing a session low at 1.3968. That extended the seventh straight daily decline on oil-backed CAD demand, with mixed Canadian retail sales adding little. The NY bounce stalled at the ny high of 1.3989, near the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY drop and under the London highs trendline, and price is compressing between a 1.3975 swing low and 1.3989 into late NY.
Support: 1.3975, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number reclaims the handle and breaks the lower-high sequence along the London highs trendline
Loss of the 1.3975 swing low exposes the 1.3968 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Rejection at the 1.3989 ny high keeps the bounce inside the 38.2–50% retracement of the London-NY drop
Friday close into BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) next week; Middle East oil headlines could shift CAD before then
London's failure at the 1.4018 London high gave way to a break of the Asian range and the 1.4000 round number. The pair printed a 1.3968 session low early in NY as CAD stayed bid on firm oil, extending the seven-day slide. The bounce capped at 1.3989, the NY high, near the 38.2% retrace, and price is consolidating below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4000 round number returns price to the Asian range and negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3968 session low extends the lower-low sequence
The 1.3989 NY high and the descending trendline from the London high are capping the bounce; a break above both undoes the lower-high chain
Friday liquidity thins after London close; the BoC and Fed decisions on Wed Oct 28 are the next major risk
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling after NY sell-off · RSI 38 · price 1.39813
Range break below 1.40; lower high at 1.4018, minor higher lows off 1.3968.
London faded from the 1.4018 London high, and the first hour of NY broke the Asian low and the 1.40 round number to a 1.3968 session low. Oil-driven CAD demand outweighed mixed CAD retail sales. A small rising-lows bounce has since been rejected at the 1.3989 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4018–1.3968 leg, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 bounce high (38.2% fib) opens a retest of the 1.40 round number from below
Break of the rising lows near 1.3972 puts the 1.3968 session low back in play
Thin Friday liquidity after London close; BoC (13:45 UTC) and FOMC on Wed Oct 28 are the next scheduled risk
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce off session low · RSI 45 · price 1.39888
London broke below the Asian range; NY double bottom near 1.3968–1.3972, price now retesting from below.
London broke the 1.3997 Asian low and the slide extended to a 1.3968 session low around the 12:30 UTC Canada retail sales release, adding to CAD's oil-backed run below 1.4000. US PMI and Michigan beats then drove a NY rebound through the 1.3981 range top. Price now sits at ema20 and the 38.2% retracement of the London high to session low drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.3997, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3997 asian low (the 61.8% retracement) reclaims the 1.4000 handle and negates the London breakdown
Rejection at the 1.3993 fib 50 and a slip back below the 1.3981 range top restores the lower-high sequence
Break of the 1.3968 session low extends the decline; Friday's close relative to 1.4000 is the reference into BoC and FOMC on Wed Oct 28
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after flush · RSI 30 · price 1.39788
Lower highs from London high; tight base below broken 1.4000.
Lower highs from the 1.4018 London high led to a break of the Asian low and the 1.4000 round number in the first hour of NY, flushing to a 1.3968 session low, in line with the digest's oil- and BoC-driven CAD bid. Price is now basing in a 1.3972–1.3981 band under the descending line, with RSI(14) near 30 after the move.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4000 round number would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 1.3972 base low and 1.3968 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above 1.3981 base top and the descending line puts the fib 50% near 1.3993 in play
Friday close relative to 1.4000 and oil/Middle East headlines into next week's BoC and Fed decisions could shift this read
14:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing after a flush · RSI 33 · price 1.3975
Lower highs from the 1.4018 London high, then a tight 1.3972–1.3980 band above the session low.
The Asian range of 1.3997–1.4014 broke lower late in London. The slide accelerated around the Canadian retail sales window to a 1.3968 session low, losing the 1.40 pivot as oil-backed CAD firmness persisted. The bounce has stalled at 1.3980, the 23.6% fib of the drop from the 1.4018 London high, leaving price compressed between that cap and the 1.3972 range low, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3980 (23.6% fib) opens a retest of the 1.40 pivot
A break below the 1.3968 session low extends the lower-low sequence
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 1.3972–1.3980 range low/cap band
Reclaiming 1.4018 london high would negate the intraday downtrend read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a range break · RSI 25 · price 1.39775
Lower highs from the London high, broke the 1.40 handle and the Asian low.
Supply capped the London high at 1.4018. Lower highs then pushed price through the 1.40 handle and the Asian low near 1.3997, with the leg extending around the 12:30 UTC Canada retail sales release to a spike low at 1.3968 on soft USD and oil-supported CAD. The bounce is stalling at a bounce cap near 1.3979, with RSI(14) at roughly 25.
Support: 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.4000, 1.4018
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break above the bounce cap at 1.3979 and an M15 close back above the 1.40 handle would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3968 spike low confirms another lower-low in the NY session
A reclaim of the 1.4018 london high would also break the lower-highs trendline structure
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 31 · price 1.39782
Broke below Asian range and 1.40 handle, small bounce off session low.
USD/CAD faded from the 1.4018 London high and printed a lower swing high at 1.4008. It then broke the Asian low at 1.3997 and the 1.40 handle around the 12:30 UTC Canada retail sales, extending a soft-USD, firm-CAD/oil move to a session low at 1.3968. RSI(14) is near 31 and price is bouncing modestly off the low.
Support: 1.3968
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.40075, 1.4018
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a services miss would add USD pressure
M15 close back above the 1.3997 Asian low turns the break into a false break
Close below the 1.3968 session low extends the lower-low chain
Swing high at 1.4008 and the lower-high trendline cap the structure; a break above opens the London high at 1.4018
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended after range break · RSI 26 · price 1.39753
Lower highs from London high, Asian range broken lower.
USDCAD broke below the 1.40 handle and the asian low at 1.39966 during the London-NY transition. Mixed Canada retail sales and a soft USD extended the slide to a session low at 1.3968, with RSI(14) near 26. Lower highs since the london high at 1.4018 keep the intraday sequence pointing down. The 61.8% fib of that leg sits at the broken asian low.
Support: 1.3968
Resistance: 1.39966, 1.4018
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a sub-57 services print extends USD pressure
M15 close back above the asian low / 1.40 handle would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the session low at 1.3968 confirms another lower-low
Close above the lower highs trendline and the london high at 1.4018 invalidates the downtrend read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 24 · price 1.39753
Lower highs since London high; range floor broken.
Lower highs from the 1.4018 London high cracked the 1.3997 range floor, tested in Asia and twice in London, and USD/CAD broke below the 1.40 handle around the Canada Retail Sales release, printing a 1.3968 session low. CAD strength on firm oil and BoC hike pricing frames the move, with RSI(14) near 24 and ATR around 6 pips after the expansion bar.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.3997 range floor, the 61.8% fib of the London high–session low drop, turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3968 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back above the lower-highs trendline and 1.4018 london high negates the intraday downtrend
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 26 · price 1.39868
Asian range broken to the downside; lower highs and lower lows below 1.4000.
London capped at 1.4018 (london high) and the pair has printed lower highs since. It broke the 1.3997 asian low and the 1.4000 handle to a session low at 1.3985 around the 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales window, with oil-backed CAD demand still in play. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.39846
Resistance: 1.39966, 1.40075, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3997 asian low and 1.4000 reclaims the prior range
Lower-high trendline from 1.4018 london high: a break above the 1.4008 lower high neutralises the down-sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3985 session low extends the lower-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 33 · price 1.39956
LH/LL chain below 1.40 handle, fresh window low under Asian low.
London rejected the 1.4018 session high and the London drop took price back through the 1.40 handle. Lower highs followed at 1.4008 and 1.4003, and the 1.3995 window low now sits just under the 1.3997 Asian low. That extends the seven-day slide on a soft USD and firm oil, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.39948
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40075, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% MoM) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.40 handle and the 1.4008 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3995 window low extends the lower-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Reclaim of the 1.4018 session high would invalidate the London drop structure
Lower highs from London high into a retest of the Asian low.
London briefly pushed above the Asian range to 1.4018, then a London sell-off retested the Asian low at 1.3997, which held again in late London. Price is pinned to the 1.4000 round number under a lower high at 1.4007, with RSI(14) near 36. That leaves the 7-day slide from the prior high at 1.4038 intact, with CAD firm on oil and BoC hike bets.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40075, 1.4018, 1.40377
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3%) lands on the next bar and could decide the 1.4000 round number test
A close below the 1.3997 Asian low breaks the double-touch floor and extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery above the 1.4007 lower high and the falling trendline would neutralise the London sell-off; above the 1.4018 London high, the downtrend read is invalidated
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could shift the USD leg into the NY session
The prior high at 1.4038 caps the window; nothing structural above it until that level is reclaimed
London reversed from the 1.4018 london high and has unwound the whole Asian advance. Price retested the 1.3997 asia low at 11:15 UTC, prints lower highs since 08:30 and sits on the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 36, below both EMAs. Seventh-day USD softness and firm oil are the backdrop.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40075, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% MoM) lands within the hour and could break the 1.3997–1.4018 range either way
M15 close below the 1.3997 asia low breaks the double-touch floor and extends the intraday down leg
M15 close above the 1.4008 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4018 london high back in view
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Lower highs from London high, retesting Asian low below 1.4000.
London faded from a 1.4018 session high and has printed lower highs back down to the 1.3997 Asian low, which has now been retested with price pinned just under the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) sits near 34. CAD firmness on oil and BoC hike pricing frames the slide, with Canada Retail Sales the next test.
Support: 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4008, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3997 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence into fresh lows for the window
A recovery above the 1.4008 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read; the 1.4018 London high is the next reference above
11:31 UTC
Heavy, pinned to 1.4000 after London rejection · RSI 37 · price 1.40024
Asian range 1.3997–1.4017; London false break of the top, lower high at 1.4007.
London poked above the Asian range top to a 1.4018 high, then reversed back to the 1.4000 round number, which has held three times since 10:00 UTC. The bounce stalled at a 1.4007 lower high, leaving the pair near the bottom of the Asian range. That fits the digest's seven-session CAD bid on firm oil, with USD/CAD now about 3 pips above the Asian low at 1.3997.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40075, 1.4018, 1.4030
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3997 Asian low breaks the range lower and extends the seven-session slide
Reclaim of the 1.4007 lower high and the 1.4018 London high puts the range top back in play, with the 1.4030 50% fibo next
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% m/m) and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Sideways after London rejection, slight downward tilt · RSI 40 · price 1.40049
Inside Asian range 1.3997–1.4018; lower highs since London open.
London briefly cleared the Asian range top to a 1.4018 session high, was rejected and sold back to the 1.4000 round number, where demand held just above the 1.3997 Asian low. Price is drifting below the fib 50% at 1.4009, with oil-backed CAD firmness keeping the 1.40 pivot in focus and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4018, 1.4035
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% m/m), then US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 1.3997 Asian low ends the range read and confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 1.4009 fib 50% and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4018 session high
Clearing 1.4018 brings yesterday's prior range near 1.4035 back into play
11:01 UTC
Sideways after the slide, holding above 1.40 · RSI 39 · price 1.40049
Range 1.3997–1.4018 since Asia; 1.40 defended three times.
London poked marginally above the Asian high to a 1.4018 session high, then met rejection and slid back to the 1.4000 round number, where demand stepped in again above the 1.3997 Asian low. Price now sits near the 38.2% of the London drop fib, below both EMAs. The tape is mid-range with no break in play as oil-backed CAD strength stalls at 1.40.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40432
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% m/m) could resolve the 1.40 round number test either way
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC add a second volatility window this NY session
M15 close below the 1.3997 asian low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 1.4018 session high reopens the path toward the 1.4043 prior high from yesterday's London-NY transition
Lower highs from 1.4044, flat floor at 1.40 psych.
London pushed above the Asian range top to a 1.4018 london high, then reversed to 1.3999. That false break leaves price back inside the 1.3997–1.4014 Asian range, with the 1.40 psych level holding for a second time today. The bounce is stalling near the 38.2% of the London drop, RSI(14) is near 40 and price sits under both EMAs as oil-driven CAD strength keeps rallies shallow.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3997 asian low breaks the 1.40 psych floor and confirms a lower-low
A recovery above the 1.4018 london high reopens yesterday's 1.4044 prior high
The 38.2–61.8% retracement of the London drop (1.4007–1.4011) is the area to watch for rejection or break
London false break above Asian high, reversed back to the range base.
London pushed above the Asian high at 1.4014 to 1.4018, then gave up the full Asian-session gain and slid back to psych 1.40, with oil-driven CAD strength still in play. Demand has stepped in near 1.4000 twice in 24h. The asian low at 1.39966 is the floor of the range.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40142, 1.4018
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then US PMIs at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the asian low at 1.39966 breaks the 24h range to the downside
Recovery above 1.4011 (61.8% of the London drop fib) re-opens the asian high at 1.4014 and the london high at 1.4018
10:16 UTC
Intraday range, sliding to range floor · RSI 28 · price 1.40007
1.3997–1.4018 range; London high rejected.
London capped a second test of the 1.4017–1.4018 london high and erased the Asian rally, putting price back on the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 28. Firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing keeps 1.40 in focus as the asian low at 1.3997 sits just below.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3997 asian low marks a lower low on the session and breaks the range floor
Reclaim of the 1.4018 london high reopens the path to the 1.4044 prior high
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Price is near full retracement of the asia-london leg, with the 78.6% level already given up
London rejection at 1.4018 unwinds Asian climb; lower half of 1.3997–1.4018 range.
London pushed briefly above the Asian high to 1.4018, then rejected it and slid 18 pips back to the 1.4000 psych level. RSI(14) is near 29, with price under both EMAs. This sits within the seven-day CAD run on firm oil and BoC hike pricing, and the Asian low at 1.3997 is the next floor.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40142, 1.4018
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3997 asian low breaks the overnight range floor and the 1.4000 psych pivot
Recovery above the 1.4014 asian high puts the 1.4018 london high back in play and negates the rejection
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4004–1.4018 range; London false break of Asian high, rejected.
London extended the Asian bounce off the 1.3997 asia low to a 1.4018 session high. Supply capped it on four tests, and the 09:00–09:15 UTC drop retraced over half the move to 1.4006, below the ema20 and the broken Asian rising support. RSI(14) is near 41, and the oil-driven CAD bid keeps the 1.4004 thu ny low and the 1.4000 round number in focus.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4012, 1.4018, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 near 1.4012 and then the 1.4018 session high reopens the 1.4044 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4004 thu ny low exposes the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 asia low
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Higher lows off Asian low, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 1.40108
London false break above Asian high, back inside the Asian range.
Mid-London, the push above the Asian high at 1.40142 to a 1.4018 london high failed to hold. Price slipped back to 1.4011, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian low to London high leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and CAD firm on oil. The higher-low chain from the 1.39966 asian low holds above the 1.40083 swing low, with the 1.4000 psych level below.
Support: 1.40083, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40142, 1.4018, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40083 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 1.4000 psych and the 1.39966 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.40142 asian high and the 1.4018 london high reopens the path toward the 1.40436 thu high
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, compressed · RSI 55 · price 1.40151
Higher lows from 1.3997, capped near 1.4018 session high.
Yesterday's 1.4044–1.3997 decline found a floor at the Asian low just under 1.4000. Higher lows since have carried price along rising support into the London session, where it is now testing the 1.4018 session high and the 38.2% retrace near 1.4015. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR runs about 3.5 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of Canadian Retail Sales and US PMIs.
Support: 1.4010, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4039, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4018 session high opens the 50% fib at 1.4020 and the 1.4039 NY high
Break of rising support and the 1.4010 london low exposes the 1.3997 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4044 prior high would erase yesterday's decline
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.40122
Higher lows since 1.3997, capped under 1.4017.
The Asian session swept below 1.4000 to the 1.3997 asian low before recovering on a higher-low trendline, extending CAD's 7-day firmness on oil only briefly. Early London is compressing between the 1.4010 london low and the 1.4017 london high, with the bounce stalling below the 50% fib of yesterday's drop from the 1.4044 prior high.
Support: 1.4010, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40172, 1.40201, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4017 london high and the 1.4020 50% fib reopens the 1.4044 prior high
Loss of 1.4010 london low and the higher-low trendline puts the 1.3997 asian low back in play
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Recovering intraday, stalling below Asian high · RSI 52 · price 1.40121
Higher lows from Asian sweep low, capped at 1.4017.
Asia briefly swept below 1.4000 to the 1.3997 asian low as firm oil extended the seven-day slide, then rebuilt in a higher-low chain through the 1.4004 swing low. London has stayed inside the Asian range: two rejections at the 1.4017 asian high, with price now testing the rising trendline near 1.4012 just above the 1.4010 london low.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4004, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4036, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 london low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, putting the 1.4004 swing low and 1.3997 asian low back in play
Close above the 1.4017 asian high opens the 1.4036 ny breakdown point, then the 1.4044 prior high
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia dipped under 1.4000 to a 1.3997 low and reclaimed it. Price has since printed higher lows along a rising trendline. London pushed to a 1.4017 session high but stalled there twice, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3 pips as range compresses ahead of Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs. The oil-led CAD bid has paused after the seven-day slide.
Support: 1.4008, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4008 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the Asian HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.3997 asian low turns the 1.4000 false break into a lower-low
Close above the 1.4017 session high opens the 1.4043 prior high from yesterday's London session
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asian low, flat cap at the session high.
USDCAD built a higher-low chain off the 1.3997 Asian low after a 7th straight down day on firmer oil. Early London pushed past the Asian range top but was rejected twice at the 1.4017 session high, just above the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's slide from the 1.4044 prior high. Price now sits on the rising-lows trendline, RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.4008, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4020, 1.4044
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the rising-lows trendline and the 1.4008 london low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3997 asian low and the 1.4000 handle
A close above the 1.4017 session high opens the 50% fib at 1.4020, then the 1.4044 prior high
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
After the oil- and BoC-driven slide to the 1.3997 asian low, a small double bottom has given way to higher lows (latest higher low 1.4008) along a rising trendline. In the first hour of London, the session high at 1.4017 has been rejected twice, just above the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's 1.4044–1.3997 drop. ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.40083, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40172, 1.40201, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4020 fib 50% level opens the path back toward the 1.4044 prior high
A close below the 1.4008 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the recovery and puts the 1.4000 round number and the asian low back in play
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
The NY-session slide from the 1.4044 prior high carried into a brief Asia session dip below the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.3997 Asian low. That dip extended the oil- and soft-USD-driven seven-day decline, but the break failed and price has since built higher lows at 1.4004 and 1.4008. Early London is pressing the 38.2% retracement near 1.4015, with a wick rejection at the 1.4017 London high and ATR(14) compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.40083, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40172, 1.40201, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4017 London high opens the 50% fib at 1.4020
Break below the 1.4008 higher low and trendline support undoes the HH/HL chain; loss of 1.4000 psych re-exposes the Asian low
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (f/c 1.3%) and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum fading early London · RSI 61 · price 1.40114
HH/HL chain from 1.3997, capped at the Asian high.
Thursday's NY slide from 1.4024 to 1.4004 came on firm oil and a soft USD. Asia dipped through the 1.4000 psych handle to 1.3997, then reversed, a false break. Since then price has built a HH/HL chain along the HL trendline to an Asian high at 1.4017, and the first London bar is easing off it toward 1.4011, still above the 1.4008 higher low.
Support: 1.40083, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40172, 1.40239, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4008 higher low and the HL trendline breaks the intraday HH/HL chain; the asian leg fib 61.8% sits near 1.4005
Loss of 1.4000 psych and the 1.3997 asian low resumes Thursday's down-leg
M15 close above the 1.4017 asian high opens the 1.4024 breakdown area, with the 1.4044 prior high beyond
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
After the NY-session slide from the 1.40436 prior high on oil-driven CAD strength, the pair dipped just under 1.4000 psych to a 1.39966 Asian low. It has since built higher lows, most recently 1.40083, with a rejection at the 1.40142 Asian high near the 38.2% retracement just ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40083, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40142, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40142 Asian high and 1.40157 swing high extends the higher-low recovery toward the 50% retracement
Break of the 1.40083 higher low and the higher-low trendline returns focus to 1.4000 psych and the 1.39966 Asian low
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asian rebound in progress · RSI 60 · price 1.40114
Higher lows off the 1.3997 Asian low, capped at the 1.4015 Asian high.
Thursday's NY-session slide from the 1.4044 prior high stalled in Asia, where a false break of the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3997 Asian low was rejected as oil-driven CAD strength paused. Asia then printed a higher low at 1.4004, and price now sits just under the 1.4015 Asian high, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the slide, ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40043, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4024, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4015 Asian high opens the path toward the 1.4024 range floor of Thursday's London-NY range, near the 61.8% retrace
Loss of the 1.4004 higher low and the rising Asian line puts the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 Asian low back in play
A move through the 1.4044 prior high would invalidate the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Intraday recovery inside the Oct 22 decline · RSI 62 · price 1.40114
Higher lows off the 1.3997 Asian low, capped at 1.4014–1.4016.
Oct 22 London/NY slide from the 1.4044 day high extended below the 1.4000 psych level in the Asia session, with an Asian low at 1.3997, but failed to hold, a false break. Price has built higher lows from there, the latest at 1.4004, and is now stalling at 1.4014–1.4016. That is the late-NY high and roughly the 38.2% retrace, while the oil spike and soft USD keep CAD firm.
Support: 1.40043, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40201, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4016 ny high opens the 50% fib at 1.4020, with the 1.4044 day high above
Break of the 1.4004 higher low and a close back under 1.4000 psych revives the Asian low at 1.3997
London open in ~1h typically expands the 2.6-pip ATR Asian range
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.3997 Asian low, testing 38.2% retracement.
The Asia session dipped through 1.4000 to the 1.3997 asian low, then reclaimed the round number. That false break has built a higher-low sequence back to 1.4013, now pressing the 38.2% fib of Thursday's 1.4044–1.3997 drop and the late-NY swing high near 1.4015. Oil-driven CAD strength keeps this a correction inside the seven-day slide so far.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4022
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.4015 into London open exposes the 1.4022 breakdown area
Loss of the 1.4004 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and returns focus to the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 asian low
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off sub-1.4000 Asian low, price at Asian range top.
After a seventh-day slide on firm oil and a soft USD, the Asia session dipped below the 1.4000 round number to a 1.39966 Asian low. That break failed: price has since built a higher low at 1.40043 and is pressing the 1.40134 Asian high, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY slide and the 1.40157 swing high, with RSI(14) near 60 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.40043, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40157, 1.4024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40157 swing high and 38.2% fib opens the 1.4024 NY breakdown area
Loss of the 1.40043 higher low breaks the trendline and puts the 1.4000 round number and 1.39966 Asian low back in play
London open in ~1.5h is the first test of the Asian high/low boundaries
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Bounce within a downtrend, short-term higher lows · RSI 70 · price 1.40124
Late Asia higher high above 1.4009 after a false break of 1.4000.
The NY-session slide off the 1.4044 day high, driven by soft USD and firm oil, briefly broke the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.3997 Asian low. Price reclaimed the level and printed a higher low at 1.4004, and late Asia is now pushing a session high at 1.4012 with RSI(14) near 70. The bounce is testing the 38.2% retrace of the day high-to-low move, just under the late NY high at 1.4016.
Support: 1.40043, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.4024, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late NY high at 1.4016 (38.2% retrace) exposes the 1.4024 breakdown zone
Failure to hold the 1.4004 higher low puts the 1.4000 psych level and the 1.3997 Asian low back in play
Break of the Asian higher-low trendline would negate the bounce structure
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs from 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the sub-1.4000 Asia low, testing the Asian range high.
Pre-London, USDCAD has recovered from a brief dip under the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3997 Asia low. Price is printing higher lows along an Asia recovery line and now presses the Asian range high at 1.4012, with RSI(14) near 70, despite the oil-driven CAD bid behind the 7-day slide. Overhead, the late NY high at 1.4016 lines up with the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's NY decline fib.
Support: 1.40043, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40237
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4016 late NY high clears the 38.2% retrace and exposes the 1.4024 NY range low
Loss of the 1.4004 higher low breaks the Asia recovery line and puts the round number and 1.3997 Asia low back in play
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 57 · price 1.40067
Lower highs from 1.4044, tight late-Asia range above psych.
Asia session pushed through the 1.4000 psych to a 1.3997 asian low, then reclaimed the handle. The probe below 1.4000 did not hold, extending the 7-day slide on firm WTI and a soft USD, with lower highs intact from yesterday's 1.4044 prior high and the late ny high capped at 1.4016, near the 38.2% fib. Late in Asia, price is boxed between a 1.4004 range floor and the 1.4009 asian high, ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.40045, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4000 psych and the 1.3997 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4009 asian high and the 1.4016 late ny high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4004 range floor ahead of London open puts 1.4000 back in play
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 53 · price 1.40059
Lower highs from 1.4044; Asian higher low at 1.4004 after false break of 1.4000.
NY extended the slide from the 1.4044 prior high as oil-linked CAD stayed firm. Asia briefly broke the 1.4000 round number to the 1.3997 asian low before reclaiming the handle. Price is now coiling mid-Asia between the 1.4004 higher low and the 1.4009 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR about 2.8 pips.
Support: 1.40043, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.4009 opens the 1.4016 swing high, near the 38.2% fib of the slide
Loss of the 1.4004 higher low and the 1.4000 round number re-exposes the 1.3997 asian low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 49 · price 1.40059
Lower highs intact; tight Asian range after a reclaimed dip below 1.4000.
The slide ran from the 1.4044 London high through Thursday's NY session. It probed the 1.4000 psych level in Asia, where the dip to the 1.3997 Asian low was reclaimed as oil-linked CAD stayed firm. Mid-Asia, price is compressing between the Asian low and the 1.4009 Asian high, below the 1.4016 swing high. RSI(14) is near 49 and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3997 Asian low turns the 1.4000 false break into a fresh lower low
Close above the 1.4009 Asian high puts the 1.4016 swing high and the 38.2% retrace of the London high–Asian low decline (~1.4015) in play
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.40053
Lower highs from 1.4044; tight Asian range 1.3997–1.4009.
USD/CAD slid from the 1.4044 London high through NY as a soft dollar and firm oil weighed. Mid-Asia, price is consolidating between the 1.3997 Asian low and the 1.4009 Asian high, after a brief false break below the 1.4000 round number was rejected. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and price sits at the 23.6% fib, with the 1.4016 swing high at the 38.2% level above.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3997 asian low confirms acceptance under the 1.4000 round number and resumes the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.4009 asian high puts the 1.4016 swing high / 38.2% retracement in play; holding above it breaks the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4044; tight Asian range with higher lows under 1.4009.
The slide from the 1.4044 London high ran through NY on oil-linked CAD strength. Late in the Asia session, a brief break under the 1.4000 round number to 1.3997 failed and price reclaimed the handle. It is now compressing under the 1.4009 Asian high, where EMA50 also caps; RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4009 Asian high opens the 1.4015 swing high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib
Failure back below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
London open may test the Asian range; the lower-highs trendline from 1.4044 still caps above
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling under EMA50 · RSI 57 · price 1.40083
Lower highs from 1.4044; false break below 1.4000 reclaimed.
The oil-driven CAD slide carried into Asia with a dip to 1.3997, below the 1.4000 round number, which was quickly reclaimed, so far a false break. Price is now pressing the Asian high at 1.4009 just under EMA50. The late NY high at 1.4016 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 1.4044 day high to the Asian low.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4016 late NY high / 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.4044 day high the next reference
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 60 · price 1.40083
Lower highs from 1.4044; Asia false break of 1.4000 reclaimed, higher lows since.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4044 prior high through NY hours as oil strength and a soft USD weighed. The Asian session dipped below the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3997 Asian low, then reclaimed it. Higher lows now press the Asian high at 1.4009, still beneath the 1.4016 NY swing high.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40087, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4016 NY swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.4000 and the 1.3997 Asian low resumes the downtrend
A break of the Asia higher-lows line returns price to the Asian range
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 61 · price 1.40083
Lower highs from 1.4044; false break below 1.4000 reclaimed.
USDCAD extended Thursday's slide from the 1.4044 day high through NY hours as firm oil and a soft USD pressed it toward 1.4000. Mid-Asia, a dip through the round number to the 1.3997 asian low failed to hold. Price has since recovered to the 61.8% fib of the leg down from the 1.4016 swing high and is pressing the ema50 near 1.4010.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4010, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4016 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4044 day high in view
Rejection at the ema50 near 1.4010 and the 61.8% fib keeps the downtrend read intact
A return below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 asian low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 54 · price 1.40064
Lower highs from 1.4044; false break below 1.4000 reclaimed in Asia.
The NY session slide from the 1.4044 prior high ran to 1.4004 as firm oil and a soft USD pressed the pair. Asia dipped through the 1.4000 round number to an asian low of 1.3997, then reclaimed it and is now testing the asian high at 1.4008. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, with price sitting between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40083, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4008 asian high opens the late NY high at 1.4016, near the 38.2% fib
Failure back below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4044 prior high would invalidate the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; Asian double bottom near 1.3997, price testing Asian high.
USDCAD extended its slide through NY on oil-led CAD firmness. It briefly broke the 1.4000 round number in Asia and printed a double bottom near 1.3997, and price is now pressing the Asian high at 1.4008, roughly the 23.6% fib of the London high-to-Asian low leg. Lower highs at the 1.4044 London high and the 1.4016 swing high still frame the downtrend, with ATR(14) compressed near 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4008, 1.4016, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4016 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 1.4008 Asian high keeps the double bottom unconfirmed
Close back below the 1.4000 round number and 1.3997 double bottom resumes the downtrend
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 56 · price 1.40075
Lower highs from 1.4044; double bottom near 1.3997 in Asia.
Oil-driven CAD strength pushed USD/CAD from the 1.4044 day high to the 1.3997 asian low, where two dips under the 1.4000 round number were absorbed in a double bottom. Price is now pressing the 1.4008 asian high late in the Asia session, with EMA50 near 1.4010 just overhead and RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40083, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4016 swing high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 1.3997 asian low and the 1.4000 round number resumes the downtrend
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could reset the intraday range
Crude headlines on Middle East supply risk remain the main CAD driver
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at 1.4000 · RSI 41 · price 1.40008
Lower highs since the 1.4044 prior high; tight Asian range parked on the round number.
A chain of lower highs from the 1.4044 prior high carried through London and NY Thursday as CAD stayed bid on the oil rally. Asia has compressed just above the 1.4000 round number after a brief probe to a 1.3997 session low. Price is pressing the descending trendline with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR down to about 3.4 pips, a thin, coiling tape.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40083, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3997 session low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4008 Asian high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; the 1.4016 swing high sits on the 38.2% down-leg fib
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main CAD driver; Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) later Friday could reset this range
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in thin Asia trade · RSI 36 · price 1.39984
Lower highs and lower lows; marginal break below 1.4000.
USDCAD slipped under 1.4000 psych to a 1.3997 Asia low, extending the NY-session slide from the 1.4044 London high as oil-driven CAD demand persists. The late-NY bounce high at 1.4016 sits at the 38.2% retracement of that drop and capped the recovery. ATR near 3.6 pips reflects thin Asian range conditions.
Support: 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3997 asia low confirms another lower-low in the six-day slide
M15 close back above 1.4016 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Repeated closes above 1.4000 psych would mark the Asia dip below it as a false break
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Oil headlines on Saudi/Russian infrastructure or US-Iran talks remain the main CAD driver
Lower highs since late NY, 1.4000 probe in early Asia.
The slide from the 1.4044 London high extended through the NY session as oil-driven CAD strength persisted. Early Asia dipped below the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.3997 session low before recovering to 1.4002. Highs have stepped lower since the 1.4016 late NY high, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips, so the tape is compressed.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
A sustained M15 hold below the 1.3997 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A close back above the 1.4016 late NY high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Fri could materially shift this read
Crude headlines remain the main CAD driver and can widen the current tight range
Lower highs since NY drop; sweep below round number.
The NY-session drop from 1.4036 set up a lower-high chain that broke the 1.4004 prior low. In the Asian session, price swept the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3997 session low, with CAD firm on the oil rally. The last bar reclaimed 1.4000 in a compressed range: RSI(14) near 42, ATR about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40036, 1.40157, 1.40201
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3997 session low confirms a fresh lower-low through the round number
Recovery above the 1.4004 prior low and the 1.4016 swing high breaks the lower-high chain, opening the fib 50% at 1.4020
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Oil headlines on Middle East strikes remain the main CAD driver intraday
Lower highs and lows since the NY session, compressing at the 1.4000 psych level.
Oil-driven CAD strength pushed USDCAD from the 1.40356 drop origin through the 1.4013 London low during NY hours, and the slide continued into Asia toward the 1.4000 psych level. The dip to the 1.39984 session low drew an immediate bounce. The 1.40157 swing high and 1.40083 Asia high mark a lower-high chain, with RSI(14) near 36 and range contracting.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39984
Resistance: 1.40083, 1.40157, 1.40356
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 1.4000 psych and 1.39984 session low extend the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.40083 Asia high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 1.40157 swing high
Recovery above the 1.40356 drop origin would negate the NY-session selloff, roughly the 61.8% of the fib of the drop
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; early-Asia probe below 1.4000 rejected.
Oil-driven CAD strength kept the six-day slide going through NY hours. The pair printed lower highs at 1.4044, 1.4039 and the 1.4016 swing high after the 1.4022 breakdown out of the London range. Early Asia probed under the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3998 session low on thin post-rollover trade before price closed back above it. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR(14) about 2.7 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39984
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40222
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3998 session low confirms acceptance under the round number
Recovery through the 1.4016 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.4022 breakdown level puts price back inside the prior London range
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the lows · RSI 31 · price 1.40005
Lower highs from the London high; thin Asia drift into 1.4000.
CAD bid on the oil spike capped the European USD rebound at the 1.4044 london high. The NY session broke below 1.4022, and the breakdown ran to 1.4004. The 1.4016 ny bounce hi set another lower high, and early Asia is now pressing the 1.4000 round number on narrow ranges (ATR under 3 pips).
Support: 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40222, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4016 ny bounce hi breaks the lower-high chain; acceptance back above the 1.4022 breakdown level negates the NY breakdown
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Descending trendline from the london high marks the lower-high sequence; a break above it changes the read
Lower highs and lower lows, NY low broken in thin early-Asia trade.
Lower highs at 1.4044 (London), 1.4039 and the 1.4016 late-NY lower high keep the M15 downtrend intact as oil-backed CAD strength extends the six-day slide. Price slipped under the 1.4004 NY low in thin post-rollover trade and is testing the 1.4000 round number in early Asia, with RSI(14) near 35, soft but not oversold. The fib 50% of the drop from the London high sits at 1.4022.
Support: 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40036, 1.40157, 1.4022
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 1.4000 round number extend the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 1.4004 NY low would mark the break below it as a false break
A move above the 1.4016 lower high breaks the NY downtrendline and the lower-high chain
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read