Lower highs Wed–Fri, then higher lows from Friday's 1.3968 low; Monday spike rejected.
The Wed–Fri decline ran from the 1.4082 Wed high to the 1.3968 Friday low, set on the Canadian retail sales dip in the London-NY transition, and that dip was fully recovered by the NY close. Monday's NY session spike to 1.4055 on pre-FOMC USD short-covering and softer oil met rejection at the monday high. It left price pinned at the 1.40 handle, just under EMA(20) near 1.4017 and at the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Higher lows have held since Friday, and RSI(14) near 48 reflects the stall.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.40 handle and the higher lows line exposes the 1.3968 friday low
Close back above the 1.4055 monday high reopens the 1.4082 wed high and breaks the lower-high sequence
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence could shift tone ahead of Wednesday
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3968, capped at 1.4055 week high.
USD/CAD gapped up to a 1.4038 weekly open as oil eased and USD shorts were trimmed into Wednesday's Fed and BoC, but the gap filled through the Asia session to 1.3998, just under the 1.40 handle. A first-hour-of-NY push to the 1.4055 week high was rejected, and price has rotated back onto EMA(20) near 1.4017, holding above the fib 50% of the Friday low-to-Monday high leg. Higher lows from Friday's 1.3968 six-week low remain intact along the rising lows line, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.4011, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4038 weekly open reopens the 1.4055 week high and the 1.4082 wed high
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.40 handle exposes the 1.3968 friday low
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 1.4011 shifts focus to the 61.8% near 1.4001
Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, then BoC (Wed 13:45 UTC) and Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Wed–Fri decline paused, now ranging around EMA(20) · RSI 53 · price 1.40187
The Wed–Fri drop from the 1.4082 Wed high bottomed at the 1.3968 week low on Friday's Canadian retail sales. Monday's gap-up open at the 1.4038 weekly open filled during the Asia session, and the NY-session spike to the 1.4055 Monday high stalled just under the 78.6% retrace of that drop before fully unwinding as the 2-year auction cleared lower. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.4018 with RSI(14) flat around 53, framed by higher lows above the 1.4000 round number and a 1.4000–1.4055 range ahead of Wednesday's BoC and FOMC decisions.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40384, 1.40549, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4000 round number breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 1.3968 week low
Acceptance back above the 1.4038 weekly open puts the 1.4055 Monday high in play; a close beyond it exposes the 1.4082 Wed high
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the first pre-Fed check on USD firmness
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (~85-90% hike priced) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday low; NY spike rejected below Monday high.
The slide from Wednesday's NY-session high at 1.4082 bottomed at the 1.3968 Friday low. Monday gapped up to a 1.4038 weekly open, and Asia filled the gap as USD firmed and oil eased ahead of the BoC and Fed. A spike during NY hours to the 1.4055 Monday high cleared the 61.8% fib of the Wed-Fri move but was rejected back to 1.4006, a false break that leaves price hugging EMA(20) near 1.4018 with RSI(14) at 55, while higher lows from the Friday low through psych 1.40 still frame the rebound.
Support: 1.4018, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4038 weekly open and 1.4055 Monday high reopens the 1.4082 wed high
Failure to hold psych 1.40 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3968 Friday low
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence as pre-Fed catalysts near EMA(20)
Lower highs from 1.4082; higher low at 1.3998 above Friday's 1.3968.
The decline from Wednesday's 1.4082 bottomed at the 1.3968 friday low in early NY hours, and Monday's gap-up open at the 1.4038 weekly open was sold back to the 1.4000 round number during the Asian range. A NY-session spike to a 1.4055 week high, helped by firmer USD and softer oil ahead of the BoC and Fed, stalled near the 78.6% fib of last week's decline and was fully retraced. Price now sits just below the ema20 near 1.4017 and on the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) back at neutral and the lower-high sequence still intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4038, 1.4055
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4055 week high breaks the lower-high sequence from 1.4082
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number and the higher-low line puts the 1.3968 friday low back in play
Acceptance back above the ema20 and 1.4038 weekly open would turn Monday's rejection into a base
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC Wed, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4082 broken by Monday NY spike, then rejected.
The seven-session slide from Wednesday's 1.4082 week high bottomed at the 1.3968 week low during Friday's NY session, and price recovered back above 1.4000 psych into the close. Monday gapped higher at the open as crude fell after Trump ruled out strikes on Iran. The gap filled to 1.3998 in the Asian range, then the first hour of NY spiked to the 1.4055 Monday high, roughly a 76% retracement of the Wed high–Fri low fib, clearing Thursday's 1.4044 high before being rejected. Price now sits back below the 1.4038 Monday open, which lines up with the 61.8% fib, but holds above EMA(20) near 1.4019 and the Monday higher-lows line, with RSI(14) cooled to 57 from near 70.
Support: 1.4019, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4055 Monday high invalidates the false break read and opens the path to the 1.4082 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.4019 and the Monday higher-lows line puts 1.4000 psych back in play
A break below 1.4000 reopens the 1.3968 week low
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the first pre-Fed test
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) and the Fed at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence broken; higher low at 1.3998 over 1.3968.
Last week's slide from the 1.4082 prior high bottomed at 1.3968 in Friday's NY session. Monday gapped up from the 1.4009 close and filled down to a 1.3998 weekly low in Asia. A single NY-open impulse then reclaimed the weekly open at 1.4038 and broke the 1.4044 lower high, as crude slipped and the USD extended its pre-Fed short-covering bounce. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 1.4020 with RSI(14) around 69, the 61.8% retracement of last week's decline sits just below at the weekly open, and the 78.6% level near 1.4057 is capping the 1.4055 session high.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4020, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4038 weekly open would mark the NY breakout as a false break
Close above the 1.4055 session high and 78.6% fib opens the path to the 1.4082 prior high
Loss of ema20 at 1.4020 and the higher-low line exposes the 1.3998 weekly low
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4082 intact; higher low at 1.3998 after the Friday 1.3968 low.
The slide from Wednesday's NY-session 1.4082 week high bottomed at the 1.3968 week low around Friday's NY open, then recovered as firm US data came through. Monday's gap higher on fading crude was filled during the Asia session, leaving the 1.3998 monday low as a higher low. London has since ground up to the 1.4026 50% fib of the Wed–Fri drop, with price back above a flattening ema20/50 cluster near 1.4011, RSI(14) near 57, and supply still capping at the 1.4042 gap high that lines up with Thursday's lower high.
Support: 1.4011, 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4042 gap high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 1.4082 week high
Rejection at the 50% fib and a close back below the ema20/50 cluster would put the downtrend structure back in control
Failure to hold the 1.3998 monday low breaks the higher-low line and brings the 1.3968 week low back into view
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then BoC 13:45 UTC and Fed 18:00 UTC on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4082; base forming 1.3968–1.4000 after weekend gap.
Last week's slide from the 1.4082 week high ran on CAD strength and BoC hike bets. Friday's spike to 1.3968 around the Canadian retail sales release was reclaimed within the NY session. Monday's bullish gap to 1.4042 faded through the Asian session to the 1.4000 round number, where demand held for a higher low. A London-open bounce stalled at the 1.4026 session high, near the 50% retracement, with price holding just above EMA(20) and the 38.2% level at ~1.4011.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4026, 1.4042, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4026 session high opens a retest of the 1.4042 gap high and 61.8% retracement
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number exposes the 1.3968 friday low and breaks the higher-low line
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.50% priced) and the Fed later the same day could materially shift this read
Tue US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC as pre-Fed USD catalysts
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday gap faded, price compressing at 1.4000.
USD/CAD has carved lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4082 NY spike. CAD strength on BoC-hike bets and firm oil drove the slide to the 1.3968 week low around Friday's Canadian retail sales print, before NY hours rebounded price to the 1.4015 friday high. Monday's bullish gap stalled at the 1.4042 gap high, near the 61.8% retracement of the Wed-Fri drop, and was filled in the Asia session as Iran de-escalation eased USD demand. Price now sits on EMA(20) just above the 1.4000 round number, with EMA(50) overhead near the friday high and RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3998 monday low exposes the 1.3968 week low and resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above 1.4042 gap high breaks the lower highs trendline and the 61.8% retracement cap
Close back above 1.4015 friday high puts price above EMA(50) and shifts the read to a deeper retracement
Tue US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could set pre-central-bank tone
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and Fed at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, gap faded back to 1.4000 · RSI 51 · price 1.40034
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.4082 spike; Friday's low-and-reversal leaves price pinned near 1.4000.
The seven-session CAD rally on oil and BoC-hike bets produced a lower-high sequence on the Wednesday-Friday leg, from the 1.4082 week high in NY hours down to Friday's 1.3968 week low. Price then recovered above 1.4000 into the Friday close. Monday's Asia session gapped up to the 1.4038 weekly open, which sits right at the 61.8% retracement of that leg. The gap was rejected and fully filled through the 1.4009 friday close. Price now holds the 1.4000 round number just under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 51 and USD soft on lower Treasury yields.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4038, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.4038 weekly open reclaims the 61.8% retracement and breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 1.4082 week high back in view
Acceptance below the 1.4000 round number exposes Friday's 1.3968 week low
Holding under the 1.4009 friday close keeps the gap-fill read intact
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tue, then BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and FOMC on Wed 28 Oct, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday gap filled, price pinned at 1.4000.
USDCAD has held a lower-high sequence since Wednesday's 1.4082 spike in the NY session. Friday's flush to the 1.3968 week low came around the Canadian retail sales release, and the US PMI beat then lifted price back above 1.4000. Monday's Asia session gap to 1.4042 has already faded back through Friday's close at 1.4009, leaving price at the 1.4000 round number just under EMA(20) near 1.4006 and EMA(50) near 1.4015, with RSI(14) flat at 48 as CAD stays firm against a softer USD.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4009, 1.4015, 1.4042
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the friday close and ema50 (1.4009–1.4015) would reopen the gap high at 1.4042, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the Wednesday–Friday drop
Acceptance below the 1.4000 round number re-exposes the 1.3968 week low; a break there extends the lower-high sequence
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the BoC decision (13:45 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; Friday break below 1.4000 reclaimed, Monday gap faded.
USDCAD has printed lower highs from Tuesday's 1.4094 through 1.4082, 1.4044 and 1.4018, with CAD supported by firm oil and BoC hike pricing. Friday's dip to the 1.3968 week low around Canadian retail sales was bought back through the NY session after the US PMI beat, leaving a false break of the 1.4000 round number. Monday's gap up stalled at 1.4042, the monday high, and has faded into the Asia session to sit just under EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib at 1.4016, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4042
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4042 monday high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.3968 week low
Rejection below the 38.2% fib at 1.4016 keeps the downtrend read intact
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC as a pre-FOMC tone setter
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing at 1.4000 · RSI 51 · price 1.40109
Lower highs from 1.4082; Monday gap filled back to Friday close.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 wed high, with CAD firm on oil and BoC-hike bets. Friday's Canada retail sales flushed price to the 1.3968 week low before the NY session recovered to the 1.4015 fri high. Monday's Asia session opened gapped up, met rejection at the 1.4042 gap high just under Thursday's 1.4044 top and near the 61.8% of the Wednesday-Friday leg, then sold back to complete the gap fill at Friday's 1.4009 close; price sits marginally above EMA(20) at 1.4007, below EMA(50) near 1.4016, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 1.40094, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.40148, 1.4042, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4042 gap high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4082 wed high
Acceptance above the 1.4015 fri high and EMA(50) would turn the gap fill into a base
Failure to hold the gap fill and the 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.3968 week low
BoC decision (Wed 13:45 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US durables Tue 12:30 UTC