USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Wednesday, 29 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling into range · RSI 41 · price 1.40545
Week-long range, floor pierced.
The early-April downtrend from 1.4238 flattened into a week-long 1.4060-1.4125 range near fair value, with the Fed's in-line hold offering no fresh catalyst. The final bar spiked through the floor to 1.4023 before recovering to close at 1.40545 — a range break lower that is not yet confirmed on a closing basis. ATR expanded sharply on that bar after prior compression.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close below 1.4060 confirms the range break toward the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of 1.4060 restores the range and leaves the move a false break
US Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada GDP Fri could reset this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, range-bound near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.40545
Multi-week range breaking down.
USDCAD spent the last two weeks pinned in a 1.4060-1.4125 range near fair value, and the latest bar sliced through the 1.4060 floor to 1.4023 before closing at 1.40545 — the first clean downside break of the range. Broader structure remains a slow decline from the early-month 1.4238 high, with price below both EMAs. The Fed's in-line hold does little to shift the tone; direction now hinges on Thursday's US Core PCE/GDP and Friday's Canada GDP.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4100, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4060 negates the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4000
US Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend faded into range · RSI 44 · price 1.40871
Two-week range after April sell-off.
The early-April slide from 1.4238 stalled near 1.400 and price has since compressed into a two-week range between 1.4056 and 1.4125. ATR(14) has bled to roughly 19 pips, a compression that typically precedes a range break, and price is holding just under a flattening EMA20. FOMC and the BoC Summary of Deliberations both land today, the obvious catalysts for a resolution.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4125 range high invalidates the range read and opens toward 1.4238
Failure to hold 1.4056 range low exposes the 1.4003 swing low
FOMC 18:00 GMT and BoC Summary at 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now consolidating · RSI 45 · price 1.40871
Range-bound within broader downtrend.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4238 high early in the window to a 1.4003 base, and has since chopped sideways in a ~1.4056–1.4126 range for the past two weeks. ATR(14) has compressed as price coils below the EMA20 but above the rising EMA50, leaving the pair pinned near fair value ahead of FOMC. Price is holding the lower half of the range after fading from 1.4126.
Support: 1.4056, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.41259, 1.42383
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT and presser 18:30 are the dominant catalyst for the next bars
H4 close above 1.4126 range high would break the two-week consolidation
Loss of 1.4056 range low reopens the 1.4003 swing low
13:02 UTC
Downtrend faded into base · RSI 50 · price 1.40998
Ranging above 1.4000 lows.
The month-long slide from 1.4235 bottomed at the 1.4000 range low and has since based, with price ranging roughly 1.4060-1.4128 into an FOMC-heavy week. ATR(14) has compressed against a shallow recovery, and price now sits near the 40% retrace of the down-leg with EMA20/50 flattening beneath it. Oil-driven CAD support and a knife-edge Fed decision leave the range coiled ahead of the catalyst.
Support: 1.4060, 1.40036
Resistance: 1.41284, 1.4165
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 swing high opens the path toward 1.4165
Loss of 1.4060 prior low exposes the 1.4000 range low
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
The multi-week downtrend from 1.4238 lost momentum into the 1.4000 area, where price twice found demand and carved out a base. Since then USDCAD has built higher lows and settled into a 1.400-1.413 range, with ATR(14) compressing as the pair coils ahead of the FOMC decision. Price sits just under EMA20 but holds above the rising EMA50, keeping the recovery structure intact.
Support: 1.40028, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.41284, 1.4171
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could break this range read
H4 close above 1.41284 range high opens the path back toward 1.4171 prior high
Failure to hold 1.40028 swing low reopens the downtrend and confirms a lower-low
09:02 UTC
Downtrend flattening into a base · RSI 49 · price 1.40941
Multi-day range near lows, higher lows forming.
The April slide from 1.4238 has stalled into a multi-day range pivoting around the 1.4100 fair-value area, with buyers repeatedly defending the 1.4005 low to shape a double bottom. Higher lows have built since mid-window while the 1.4126 top continues to cap, keeping price boxed between 1.4005 and 1.4126. ATR is subdued, consistent with pre-FOMC compression.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4126, 1.4145
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell presser could break this range decisively
H4 close above 1.4126 range high opens the path toward 1.4145
Failure to hold 1.4005 range low confirms a lower low
The early-month downtrend from 1.4238 bottomed at 1.4003 and has since given way to a two-week base, with price ranging between 1.4060 and 1.4125. ATR(14) near 20 pips shows compression, and price now sits mid-range just under EMA20 while holding above the rising EMA50. Higher lows off the 1.4003 base keep the recovery structure intact into FOMC.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4160
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4125 range high opens the path toward 1.4160
Failure to hold 1.4060 range low reopens the 1.4003 swing low
FOMC 18:00 UTC and BoC minutes 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4005, recovery capped at 1.4128.
Multi-day downtrend carried USDCAD from 1.4238 to a double bottom near 1.4005 before a grind back to consolidate around 1.410, with supply capping the recovery at 1.4128. Price sits right at Scotiabank's ~1.4115 fair value, coiling into tonight's FOMC. ATR(14) has compressed from the mid-month selloff, leaving the pair range-bound just under EMA20 and above EMA50.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4238
What it said to watch
FOMC statement 18:00 UTC + Warsh presser is the dominant driver — a dovish hold could pressure the pair off 1.4105
H4 close above 1.4128 opens the path toward the 1.4238 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4060 support reopens the 1.4005 double bottom
USDCAD sold off from 1.4238 to a 1.4003 floor before carving a rounded base and recovering into a 1.4060-1.4128 range, with CAD structurally capped by wide BoC-Fed rate spreads and soft oil. Price now sits mid-range at 1.4093, drifting back below EMA20 while holding above EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed as the range tightens. Momentum is neutral into tonight's FOMC decision.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4155, 1.4238
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver — a dovish hold would pressure the range low
H4 close above 1.4128 range high opens the path toward 1.4155
Failure to hold 1.4060 support exposes the 1.4005 swing low and 1.4000 psych floor
01:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, base building · RSI 55 · price 1.41082
Higher lows off the 1.4000 base.
H4 sold off from 1.4238 into a 1.4000-1.4010 base mid-month, then carved a rounded bottom with higher lows into 1.4128. Price now consolidates just above EMA20/EMA50 as USD sits near YTD highs ahead of FOMC. ATR(14) has compressed versus the early-month sell-off, tightening the range between the 1.4060 support and the 1.4128 swing high.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4230
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.4128 swing high opens the path toward 1.4230 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4060 support reopens the 1.4000 base
The early-month decline from 1.4238 bottomed near the 1.4005 multi-week low, and price has since carved higher lows into a recovery range capped by the 1.4128 swing high. ATR(14) has compressed as the pair coils near Scotiabank's fair-value zone, with both EMAs now beneath price after the base built. FOMC today keeps the range read fragile — a hawkish hold is largely priced into the firm dollar.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 opens continuation toward the 1.4238 prior high
Loss of 1.4060 support reopens the 1.4005 multi-week low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read