USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 28 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
Recovery off lows, higher lows building · RSI 54 · price 1.41101
Double-bottom base near 1.40, higher lows into 1.4125 resistance.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4003 and has ground back up in a sequence of higher lows, retracing roughly half of the 1.4238-1.4003 decline. Price is now pressing the 1.4125 two-week high resistance after CAD lagged on soft crude and weak Canadian data. EMA20 sits above EMA50 with price over both, confirming the recovery leg.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4235
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 two-week high opens the path higher
Failure to hold 1.4060 recovery low threatens the higher-low structure
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
Higher lows since 1.4000 base, capped below 1.4128.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4235 swing high to a 1.4000 base mid-month, then recovered to press two-week highs, stalling just under the 1.4128 resistance. Higher-low structure has held since the base, with ATR(14) compressing as price coils below the cap — consistent with the digest's slumping-oil, dovish-BoC recovery bid. Price sits mid-way in the fib retracement of the decline.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4235
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 confirms the recovery extension toward 1.4235
Failure to hold 1.4060 reopens the 1.4003 psych base
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
USDCAD carved a rounded bottom off the 1.4000 psych zone and has clawed back roughly 50% of the 1.4238-to-1.4003 decline, printing higher lows into 1.4128. Price rejected the 2-wk high and is consolidating around 1.409 with ATR(14) near 20 pips, reflecting a compressed range ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. The recovery followed slumping oil and softer Canadian data lending CAD little support.
Support: 1.4073, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4238
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4128 2-wk high opens the path back toward the 1.4238 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4060 support reopens the 1.4000 psych zone
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst and could reset this range read
USDCAD carved a rounded base at the 1.4000 psych zone mid-month and has since built higher lows, but the advance stalled below the 1.4125 range top and this bar pulled back to 1.4091. The recovery tracks a firmer USD into FOMC and a soft loonie on sliding crude and dovish BoC expectations. Price sits just below EMA20 while holding above EMA50, leaving the pair rotating within a 1.4060-1.4125 range.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4235
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4125 range top opens the path back toward 1.4235
Loss of 1.4060 range support re-exposes the 1.4000 swing low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can break this range either way
Higher lows since double bottom, capped at 1.4125.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near the 1.4000 psychological floor mid-window and has since climbed on the Fed-BoC divergence and soft oil narrative, building a series of higher lows back toward the 1.4125 prior high that has repeatedly capped the pair. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 as price holds above both, but the recent 1.41284 print stalling under 1.4125 shows supply still active there. This is a ~50% retrace of the 1.4238-1.4004 downleg.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4219
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4125 opens the path toward the 1.4219 swing high
Failure to hold 1.4060 support reopens the 1.4004 double bottom
FOMC statement Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
13:02 UTC
Recovery off lows, higher lows building · RSI 56 · price 1.41069
Double-bottom base, grinding higher.
USDCAD carved a double bottom near 1.4003 and has since built a sequence of higher lows, with price now back above both the EMA20 and EMA50 after a bullish cross. The recovery stalled at the 1.4128 swing high, consistent with the pair repeatedly rebuffed above 1.4100 this week on Fed-BoC divergence and soft oil. ATR(14) has compressed into the mid-teens, leaving momentum contained ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4060 exposes the 1.4003 double bottom and 1.4000 psych floor
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 1.4000 · RSI 56 · price 1.4117
Double-bottom base, higher lows since.
Downtrend from the early-month 1.4247 high carved a base near 1.4000, where a double bottom around 1.4003 stalled the decline; price has since ground out higher lows over the last week and is now pressing the 1.4125 Scotiabank resistance. ATR(14) has compressed off the mid-month expansion, and the CAD leg stays heavy on softer oil and the 50% US tariff overhang. Wednesday's FOMC and BoC Summary of Deliberations are the dominant catalysts into the back half of the window.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4125 opens the path toward the 1.4250 year high
Failure to hold 1.4060 re-exposes the 1.4000 pivot
FOMC 18:00 UTC and BoC Summary 17:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Higher-lows since 1.4000 base, pressing range top.
USDCAD has carved a rounded bottom off the ~1.4000 one-month pivot, building higher-lows through the past week and now pressing the 1.4128 range high — roughly the 50% retrace of the late-July decline. The pair sits stretched to the top of its range with tariff and Fed-BoC divergence in the price. ATR(14) is compressing as price coils under resistance.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 range high opens path toward the 1.4250 year high
Failure to hold 1.4060 support reopens the 1.4000 pivot
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoC Summary Wed 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Recovery, higher lows · RSI 60 · price 1.41173
Basing above 1.4000, grinding into resistance.
USDCAD has carved a rounded base above the 1.4000 pivot after the early-month slide from 1.4247 into the 1.4003 low, and is now printing higher lows into the 1.4128 prior high. EMA20 and EMA50 have turned up with price holding above both, reflecting the CAD-soft, Fed-BoC divergence tone. Price is retesting the 1.4128 cap that has held twice in the window.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4000, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4128 opens the path toward the 1.4250 year high
Failure to hold 1.4060 / 1.4000 pivot reasserts the downside
FOMC Wed and BoC Summary of Deliberations could materially shift this read
Price sold off from the month high near 1.4247 to a base at 1.4000, where demand stepped in repeatedly and carved a rounded bottom. The recovery since has printed higher lows and is now pressing the 1.4125 resistance flagged into the FOMC event. ATR(14) has compressed versus the mid-month decline, and both EMAs sit below price.
Support: 1.4073, 1.4000, 1.40028
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4180, 1.4247
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4125 opens the path toward the 1.4180 prior range
Failure to hold 1.4060 reopens the 1.4000 base
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoC Summary of Deliberations could materially shift this read
The slide from the month's 1.4247 high bottomed into a double bottom near the 1.4000 base and has since carved higher lows, retracing roughly 50% of that down leg. Price is now pressing back through the 1.4100 psych pivot toward the 1.4190 prior swing, with ATR(14) in a moderate regime. The move fits the tariff-driven CAD softness flagged in the macro read, though it comes against a broadly softer USD.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4190 opens the path toward the year high ~1.4250
Failure to hold the 1.4100 psych risks a return to the 1.4060 support and 1.4000 base
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and BoC Summary of Deliberations Wed 17:30 UTC could materially reshape this read