Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, in multi-week pullback · RSI 53 · price 1.41267
Consolidating above July low after June peak.
USDCAD has held a broad uptrend since the late-March base near 1.3550, peaking at 1.4247 in mid-June before a multi-week pullback bottomed around 1.4005 in early July. The last two weeks have been a tight recovery grind back to the 1.4125 range top, with price now sitting just above both EMAs into the FOMC decision. Slumping crude and softer Canadian data (Industrial Product Prices -1.4%) have kept the loonie on the back foot near two-week lows.
Support: 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4247
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 1.4125 range top opens the path toward the 1.4247 June high
- Failure to hold 1.4005 july low confirms a deeper pullback
- FOMC Wed 29 Jul plus BoC Summary of Deliberations could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Uptrend cooled into range · RSI 55 · price 1.41267
Consolidation below June high.
USDCAD rallied from the early-April low near 1.3550 to a late-June peak at 1.4248, then rolled into a roughly two-month consolidation between 1.4005 and 1.4248. Price has recovered off the mid-July swing low at 1.4005 and is now testing the 1.4125 pivot, with EMA50 flattening as the trend catches its breath. The recovery leans on soft Canadian data and slumping crude against a firm USD into FOMC.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst for this pair
- D1 close above 1.4248 june high would resume the uptrend
- Failure to hold 1.4005 july low opens the 1.4000 psych level