Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:43 UTC
Downtrend, late-Friday rebound off week low · RSI 54 · price 1.39763
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday, with the lower-high line now being tested.
Since Wednesday's 1.4068 session high the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows. Volatile BoC and FOMC bars, then the fade from Thursday's GDP spike to the 1.4014 thu high, drove the leg lower as firm oil and softer US yields underpinned CAD. Friday's NY session dropped to a week low at 1.3941, and a late rebound then lifted price back above EMA(20) and through the lower-high line, closing at 1.3976 just under EMA(50) near 1.3980.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
- H1 closes above ema50 at 1.3980 and the 1.4000 round number would break the lower-high sequence; the thu high at 1.4014 is the next marker
- Slipping back below ema20 at 1.3965 would turn Friday's lower-high line break into a false break
- A move below the 1.3941 week low extends the lower-low sequence
- US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and Macklem's speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:39 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading · RSI 53 · price 1.39763
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak, compressing into a falling wedge; final bar pressing the wedge top.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak. The post-FOMC NY session broke the 1.4030 shelf, and firm oil plus softer US yields extended the slide to a 1.3941 week low during Friday's NY hours. The descent has narrowed into a falling wedge, and Friday's late NY rebound closed back above EMA(20) and the wedge's lower-highs line while RSI(14) set a shallow higher low near 34 against a lower price low. Price now sits just under the 1.3979 session high and EMA(50), with Thursday's GDP-driven 1.4014 high (thu high) and the 1.40 round number above.
Support: 1.3966, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
- H1 close above the 1.3979 session high and EMA(50) confirms the falling wedge break; the 1.4000 round number is the next test
- Failure back below EMA(20) at 1.3966 and a break of the 1.3941 week low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 psych level
- US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and BoC Governor Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read