Lower highs from 1.4068; Sunday gap below Friday close.
The slide from Wednesday's 1.4068 high gathered pace after the FOMC broke 1.4030, and the post-GDP bounce stalled at the 1.4014 thu high. Lower highs then held along the falling trendline into Friday's 1.3941 week low, as firm oil and lower US yields weighed on the pair. A late-Friday recovery closed above that trendline, but the Sunday open gapped down to a 1.3958 sunday low; price now sits just above the ema20 and at the 23.6% fib, below the 1.3976 friday close and the EMA50 near the same area.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3990, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Filling the gap to the 1.3976 friday close, and an H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3990, would point to a correction rather than a lower-high continuation
A break below the 1.3958 sunday low and the 1.3941 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.3965 returns price under the falling trendline
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and the BoC Macklem speech (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4068; Sunday gap below Friday close.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 Asia-session peak. It broke below the 1.4000 round number after the BoC hike and Fed decision, and Thursday's GDP-driven NY spike to 1.4014 (thu high) faded within hours. Friday's NY session set the week low at 1.3941 before a rebound into the Friday close at 1.3976, but Sunday's open gapped about 18 pips lower to 1.3959, back under EMA(20) near 1.3965 with RSI(14) near 45, as firm oil and softer US yields keep CAD supported; the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Friday decline sits at 1.3990.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A fill of the weekend gap back to the 1.3976 Friday close would test the lower highs line drawn from Thursday's high
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3941 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a miss below ~54 is flagged as a trigger for a move under the lows
BoC Governor Macklem speech (Tue 16:00 UTC) is the main CAD-side risk to this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 top. Friday's bounce poked above the descending trendline..
The week high at 1.4068 printed early Wednesday. The BoC hike and the post-FOMC hour then turned the pair into a lower-high sequence, and Thursday's US GDP spike to the thu high at 1.4014 faded within the NY session as firm oil and softer yields weighed. Lows have compressed in shallower steps toward the 1.3941 week low, set during Friday's NY session, while highs fell faster: a falling wedge shape. The late-NY rebound closed above the ema20 at 1.3966 and the descending trendline, but stalled just under the ema50 near 1.3980, with RSI(14) back around 52.
Support: 1.3966, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 at 1.3980 and Friday's 1.3979 high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 38.2% near 1.3990 and the 1.4000 round number
Return below the prior lows at 1.3958 negates the trendline break and puts the 1.3941 week low back in focus
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the main CAD risk for this structure